Alphabet (GOOGL)


Market Price (7/26/2026): $318.85 | Market Cap: $3.9 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Alphabet (GOOGL)


Market Price (7/26/2026): $318.85
Market Cap: $3.9 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 186 Bil, FCF LTM is 53 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 140 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x

Key risks
GOOGL key risks include [1] the structural threat of generative AI disrupting its core search business and [2] intensifying global antitrust investigations that could force divestitures or major changes to its business practices.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 186 Bil, FCF LTM is 53 Bil
4 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 140 Bil
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more.
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x
8 Key risks
GOOGL key risks include [1] the structural threat of generative AI disrupting its core search business and [2] intensifying global antitrust investigations that could force divestitures or major changes to its business practices.

GOOGL in ETFs

Weight = GOOGL's share of each fund

SPY3.2%
VOO3.2%
IVV2.9%
VTI2.9%
ITOT2.8%
QQQ3.4%
QQQM3.3%
DIA3.6%
+45 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/23/2026

Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance.

Alphabet reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter, which ended on June 30, 2026. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $9.11, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $2.89 by $6.22. Quarterly revenue also saw substantial growth, increasing 24% year-over-year to $119.80 billion, surpassing analyst projections of approximately $117.07 billion.

2. Accelerated Growth in Google Cloud Driven by AI Demand.

Google Cloud emerged as a key driver of Alphabet's growth, with its revenue accelerating to an impressive 82% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, reaching $24.77 billion. This performance outpaced consensus estimates of $22.46 billion and was primarily fueled by strong demand for AI infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions, including Google Cloud Platform (GCP) services.

Show more
Updated on 7/23/2026

Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance.

Alphabet reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter, which ended on June 30, 2026. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $9.11, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $2.89 by $6.22. Quarterly revenue also saw substantial growth, increasing 24% year-over-year to $119.80 billion, surpassing analyst projections of approximately $117.07 billion.

2. Accelerated Growth in Google Cloud Driven by AI Demand.

Google Cloud emerged as a key driver of Alphabet's growth, with its revenue accelerating to an impressive 82% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, reaching $24.77 billion. This performance outpaced consensus estimates of $22.46 billion and was primarily fueled by strong demand for AI infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions, including Google Cloud Platform (GCP) services.

3. Broad Adoption and Impact of AI Across Products.

Alphabet's substantial investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) translated into widespread adoption and positive impact across its product portfolio. Gemini Enterprise is being utilized by nearly 90% of the Fortune 100, and the Gemini app has achieved 950 million monthly active users, with daily active users tripling over the past year. These AI advancements are enhancing core services such as Google Search, driving query growth and improving ad relevance.

4. Significant Unrealized Gains on Equity Securities.

Alphabet's net income for fiscal Q2 2026 was significantly boosted by a $98.0 billion net unrealized gain on its equity securities. This gain was a primary factor behind the reported 298% increase in net income available to common stockholders and the 294% increase in diluted EPS.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.3% change in GOOGL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)33120267252026Change
Stock Price ($)287.39319.7411.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)402,837445,86710.7%
Net Income Margin (%)32.8%54.8%66.9%
P/E Multiple26.315.9-39.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,07412,151-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution11.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL11.3% 
Market (SPY)13.6%59.4%
Sector (XLC)-4.1%69.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.3% change in GOOGL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120257252026Change
Stock Price ($)312.59319.742.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)385,477445,86715.7%
Net Income Margin (%)32.2%54.8%69.9%
P/E Multiple30.415.9-47.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,08612,151-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution2.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL2.3% 
Market (SPY)8.7%58.4%
Sector (XLC)-9.4%67.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 82.0% change in GOOGL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020257252026Change
Stock Price ($)175.73319.7482.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)359,713445,86724.0%
Net Income Margin (%)30.9%54.8%77.5%
P/E Multiple19.315.9-17.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,18312,1510.3%
Cumulative Contribution82.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL82.0% 
Market (SPY)20.6%56.5%
Sector (XLC)-1.1%61.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 169.5% change in GOOGL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 166.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020237252026Change
Stock Price ($)118.65319.74169.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)284,612445,86756.7%
Net Income Margin (%)20.6%54.8%166.1%
P/E Multiple25.915.9-38.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,78112,1515.2%
Cumulative Contribution169.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL169.5% 
Market (SPY)72.6%58.6%
Sector (XLC)68.5%69.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GOOGL Return65%-39%58%36%66%2%266%
Peers Return25%-44%89%47%10%-7%99%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%97%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GOOGL Win Rate83%25%67%67%75%29% 
Peers Win Rate60%30%75%68%47%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GOOGL Max Drawdown-8%-44%-17%-22%-30%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-53%-18%-16%-29%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventGOOGLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven101 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-17.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven127 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven449 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-30.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven86 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-11.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven52 days62 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX

In The Past

Alphabet's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventGOOGLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven101 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven449 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-30.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-20.6%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.9%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven105 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-63.8%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven176.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1394 days1085 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX

In The Past

Alphabet's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alphabet (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is a global technology conglomerate operating across various sectors, primarily focused on internet services, software, and hardware. The company structures its diverse offerings into three main segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. This broad portfolio allows Alphabet to serve a vast global audience, from individual consumers to large enterprises across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.

The largest segment, Google Services, encompasses the products and platforms most people associate with Google. This includes its dominant search engine, Android mobile operating system, Chrome web browser, and widely used applications like Gmail, Google Maps, Google Photos, and YouTube. A significant portion of its revenue comes from advertising within Search and YouTube. Additionally, this segment develops and sells hardware, such as Pixel phones, Fitbit wearable devices, and Google Nest smart home products, catering directly to consumers worldwide and generating revenue through app and content sales on Google Play.

Beyond its consumer-facing products, Alphabet also provides robust enterprise solutions through its Google Cloud segment. This offers cloud computing infrastructure, platforms, and various services, alongside Google Workspace, a suite of cloud-based collaboration tools like Gmail, Docs, and Drive tailored for businesses. The "Other Bets" segment represents Alphabet's ventures into emerging technologies and long-term projects, including health technology and experimental internet services, demonstrating its commitment to innovation and future growth across various industries.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Alphabet is like "Amazon for the internet's information and advertising," combined with a leading cloud computing service.
  • Alphabet is like a combination of Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft, dominating digital advertising, consumer software platforms (Android, Chrome), and enterprise cloud services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Search Engine (Google Search): Provides information retrieval across the internet.
  • Advertising Platforms (Google Ads): Offers advertising solutions for businesses across Google's vast network.
  • Mobile Operating System (Android): Powers a wide range of smartphones and other devices.
  • Web Browser (Chrome): A popular web browser for accessing the internet.
  • Productivity & Collaboration Tools (Gmail, Drive, Photos, Maps): A suite of services for email, cloud storage, photo management, and navigation.
  • Digital Content Store (Google Play): A platform for downloading apps, games, movies, and other digital content.
  • Video Hosting & Streaming (YouTube): A platform for users to upload, watch, and share videos, including non-advertising subscription services.
  • Consumer Hardware (Pixel, Nest, Fitbit): Manufactures smartphones, smart home devices, and wearable fitness trackers.
  • Cloud Computing Services (Google Cloud): Offers infrastructure, platform, and other cloud services for enterprises.
  • Enterprise Collaboration Software (Google Workspace): Provides cloud-based productivity and collaboration tools like Gmail, Docs, and Meet for businesses.
  • Health Technology Services: Develops and sells health-related technology and services.
  • Other Internet Services: Engages in various other internet-based services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of Alphabet (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. primarily sells its products and services to other companies. Its major customers fall into two broad categories:

  • Advertisers: A vast number of businesses across virtually every industry globally utilize Alphabet's advertising platforms (Google Search, YouTube, Google Display Network) to reach individuals. These range from small and medium-sized businesses to large multinational corporations. Due to the sheer volume and proprietary nature of advertising relationships, Alphabet does not typically disclose a comprehensive list of its major advertising customers. Effectively, any public company that advertises online is a customer.
  • Enterprise and Cloud Customers: Businesses of all sizes subscribe to Google Cloud services, which include infrastructure, platforms, and Google Workspace collaboration tools. Alphabet has publicly announced numerous major enterprise customers for its Google Cloud segment. Examples of such major public company customers include:
    • Coca-Cola Co (KO)
    • Target Corp (TGT)
    • The Home Depot Inc (HD)
    • Ford Motor Company (F)
    • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
    • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
    • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMUY)

While Alphabet also sells hardware (e.g., Pixel phones, Nest products) and digital content directly to individuals, its primary revenue streams and major customer relationships are with other businesses.

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  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
  • Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2317.TW)
  • Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
  • Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sundar Pichai, Chief Executive Officer of Alphabet and Google

Sundar Pichai joined Google in 2004, where he led product management and innovation efforts for products such as Google Chrome, ChromeOS, and Google Drive. He also oversaw the development of applications like Gmail and Google Maps. Pichai was appointed CEO of Google in 2015 and subsequently became the CEO of its parent company, Alphabet Inc., in 2019. Before his tenure at Google, he worked in engineering and product management at Applied Materials and in management consulting at McKinsey & Company.

Anat Ashkenazi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Alphabet and Google

Anat Ashkenazi was appointed as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google, with her role becoming effective on July 31, 2024. Prior to joining Alphabet, she served as the Chief Financial Officer at Eli Lilly and Company for over two decades, where she gained extensive experience across various financial, strategy, and operations roles within the company's global divisions.

Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet and Google

Ruth Porat has served as the President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet and Google since September 1, 2023. Before transitioning to her current role, she was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google from May 2015 until July 2024. Prior to her time at Google, Porat held the position of Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Morgan Stanley from 2010 to 2015, having spent a total of 27 years at the firm. She is notably credited with structuring the European debt financing that helped save Amazon during the dot-com downturn in 2000. Additionally, she serves on the Board of Directors of Blackstone Inc., a prominent private equity firm.

Philipp Schindler, Senior Vice President, Chief Business Officer, Google

Philipp Schindler is the Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer for Google, overseeing global and regional sales activities for Google and YouTube, as well as technical and consumer operations, product-sales strategy, and partnerships for Android and Chrome. He joined Google in 2005. Before Google, Schindler was a Senior Vice President of Marketing & Sales at AOL Germany, where he was a member of their management board for six years. He also previously served as head of marketing at CompuServe in Germany, an AOL Inc. subsidiary, and was involved in new media activities within Bertelsmann AG's junior talent program.

Kent Walker, President, Global Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary, Alphabet and Google

Kent Walker serves as the President of Global Affairs, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary for Alphabet Inc. and its subsidiary Google. In this capacity, he is responsible for legal matters, public policy, government relations, content policy, and regulatory compliance. Walker joined Google in 2006. His career before Google included executive legal and policy roles at various technology and media companies such as eBay, Liberate Technologies, Netscape, and Airtouch Communications. He also previously served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney at the United States Department of Justice.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Alphabet's business include:

  1. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Alphabet faces intensifying regulatory pressure and ongoing antitrust lawsuits globally due to its dominant market positions in areas such as search, Android, and advertising technology. These legal and regulatory challenges could result in significant fines, forced changes to its business practices, or even a potential breakup of certain parts of the company.
  2. Disruption to Search and Advertising from AI: The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and intelligent agents presents a structural threat to Alphabet's core search and advertising business model. AI-powered search results, which provide direct answers, could reduce the need for users to click on traditional ads, potentially eroding query volume, ad impressions, and click-through rates. Furthermore, new AI-native competitors are not constrained by existing advertising revenue models, making it more challenging for Alphabet to innovate while protecting its cash-generating search engine.
  3. Dependence on Advertising Revenue: A substantial portion of Alphabet's total revenue, approximately 70-77%, is derived from advertising through Google Search and YouTube. This heavy reliance on advertising makes the company vulnerable to fluctuations in digital advertising trends, economic downturns, and increased competition within the digital advertising market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

AI-powered search engines, such as those integrated with large language models like ChatGPT, pose a clear emerging threat to Alphabet's core Search business by offering direct answers and potentially bypassing traditional link-based search results and associated advertising. This shift could fundamentally alter how users find information and consume digital content.

TikTok and other short-form video platforms represent another significant emerging threat, directly competing with YouTube for user attention, creator talent, and advertising revenue, particularly among younger demographics. This competition forces YouTube to adapt its content strategy and monetization models.

Apple's increasing emphasis on user privacy, including initiatives like App Tracking Transparency (ATT), presents an ongoing threat to Alphabet's advertising ecosystem. These changes restrict data collection and ad targeting capabilities across mobile platforms, potentially impacting the effectiveness and profitability of Google's mobile advertising business.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Main Products and Services

Alphabet Inc. operates across diverse and expansive addressable markets globally. The following outlines the market sizes for its key products and services, specifying the relevant regions where available:

Google Services Segment

  • Digital Advertising (including Search and YouTube Ads): The global digital ad spending market size was approximately USD 650.00 billion in 2025 and is expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035. Similarly, the global online advertising market was valued at USD 359.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1,344.68 billion by 2034. North America alone holds approximately 36% of the global online advertising market share.
  • Mobile Operating Systems (Android): The global mobile operating system market size was estimated at USD 54.51 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 57.97 billion in 2026. Another estimate places the market size at USD 69.48 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 465.15 billion by 2033. Android commanded the largest market share of 71.45% in 2025.
  • Hardware (Pixel Phones, Fitbit Wearable Devices, Google Nest Home Products):
    • Smartphones (Pixel Phones): The global smartphone market size was estimated at USD 520.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 651.82 billion by 2030. Another report valued the market at USD 598.92 billion in 2025, with projections to expand from USD 642.64 billion in 2026 to USD 1,129.19 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the smartphone market with a 47.7% revenue share in 2024. North America contributed approximately 20% of global smartphone unit shipments in 2024.
    • Wearable Technology (Fitbit): The global wearable technology market size was valued at USD 86.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 231.43 billion by 2034. North America held the largest market share, accounting for 38.80% of the global wearable technology market in 2025.
    • Smart Home Devices (Google Nest): The global smart home market size was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030. Another source estimated the market at USD 163.30 billion in 2025. North America held a significant share of over 25% of the smart home market in 2024 and dominated the global smart home devices market with a 39.45% market share in 2025.
  • YouTube (Non-advertising services/Online Video Platform): The global online video platform market size was valued at USD 1.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.8 billion by 2033. Another report estimated the market size at USD 11.27 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 47.04 billion by 2033. North America dominates this market with approximately 38% global market share.
  • Google Play (App Store): The global mobile app stores market size was estimated at USD 71.7 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 140.3 billion by 2032. The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Google Play is projected to dominate the mobile application store market with a 59.4% market share in 2025.

Google Cloud Segment

  • Cloud Computing (Google Cloud Platform and Google Workspace infrastructure/platform services): The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 781.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2,904.52 billion by 2034. North America dominated the cloud computing industry with a 52.0% market share in 2025, and the North America market stood at USD 406.08 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 466.77 billion in 2026. The US cloud computing market is expected to grow from USD 485.54 billion in 2025 to USD 721.30 billion by 2030.
  • Enterprise Collaboration Software (Google Workspace): The global enterprise collaboration market size was valued at USD 53.93 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 132.64 billion by 2032. North America dominated this market with a 42.60% share in 2025, and the U.S. market is projected to reach USD 17.06 billion by 2026.

Other Bets Segment

  • Health Technology: The global HealthTech market size was valued at USD 908.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3,140.9 billion by 2033. Another report calculated the global digital health market size at USD 420.08 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,171.24 billion by 2035. North America held the largest market share in 2023 and dominated with a 38.45% revenue share in 2025.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Alphabet (GOOGL)

Over the next 2-3 years, Alphabet's revenue growth is expected to be driven by several key factors:

  1. AI Monetization across Products: Alphabet is actively integrating its Gemini AI models across its core products such as Search, YouTube, and Google Workspace, with promising early results in generating revenue. This includes enhanced AI-generated responses in Search and new AI tools designed for creators on YouTube. The company also anticipates new revenue streams from advertising within Gemini and improved targeting for Google Search.
  2. Google Cloud Expansion: Google Cloud is a significant engine for growth, propelled by robust demand for its cloud services, an increasing contribution from AI technologies, and a substantial, expanding backlog of business. Alphabet is making considerable investments in AI infrastructure to support this surging demand.
  3. YouTube Advertising and Subscriptions: YouTube's advertising revenue continues to grow, driven by both direct response and brand advertising. Furthermore, YouTube's subscription services, including YouTube Premium, YouTube Music, and YouTube TV, are a rapidly expanding revenue source, having reached $15 billion in annual revenue and increasing fivefold since 2019. The monetization of YouTube Shorts is also expected to contribute to this growth.
  4. Sustained Growth in Google Search and Other Advertising: Google Search remains the largest contributor to Alphabet's overall revenue growth, with strong performance in retail advertising. The ongoing integration of AI is anticipated to further enhance Search capabilities and bolster its continued revenue generation.
  5. Growth in Subscriptions Across Google Services: Beyond YouTube, subscriptions across other Google Services, such as Google One, are contributing to the company's overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases

  • Alphabet repurchased approximately $61.504 billion in shares in 2023 and $62.222 billion in 2024.
  • The company executed $45.709 billion in share buybacks during 2025.
  • Alphabet's Board of Directors authorized an additional $70 billion share repurchase program on April 23, 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Alphabet issued approximately $22.5 billion in stock-based compensation to employees in 2023.
  • The number of shares outstanding generally declined, with 13.599 billion in 2022, 13.313 billion in 2023, 13.079 billion in 2024, and 12.088 billion in 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In September 2022, Alphabet completed the acquisition of cybersecurity firm Mandiant for $5.4 billion to enhance Google Cloud's security offerings.
  • Alphabet announced its largest acquisition to date in March 2025, agreeing to acquire cloud security startup Wiz for $32 billion to further strengthen Google Cloud.
  • In December 2025, Alphabet announced the acquisition of Intersect Power LLC for $4.75 billion (including assumed debt) to secure power supply for its expanding data centers and AI development, with completion expected in the first half of 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $32.251 billion in 2023 and $52.535 billion in 2024.
  • Alphabet's capital expenditures reached approximately $91.447 billion in 2025, an increase from earlier estimates, primarily driven by investments in servers and data center construction.
  • For 2026, Alphabet expects capital expenditures to be in the range of $175 billion to $185 billion, nearly doubling the 2025 figures, with a strong focus on AI infrastructure, cloud computing capacity, and next-generation data centers to meet customer demand and reduce cloud computing backlog.

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Financials

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Mkt Price319.74381.70232.11595.19333.0270.09326.38
Mkt Cap3,885.22,834.52,493.61,508.24,886.5293.62,664.0
Rev LTM445,867318,273742,776214,962451,44248,371382,070
Op Inc LTM147,628148,95785,42288,593147,36614,355117,980
FCF LTM53,27372,916-2,47248,253129,17411,15250,763
FCF 3Y Avg60,26370,95221,34650,101109,8608,82455,182
CFO LTM185,675170,141148,531124,000140,22211,971144,376
CFO 3Y Avg141,481136,991120,52798,823120,1149,400120,320

Growth & Margins

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Rev Chg LTM20.1%17.9%14.2%26.2%12.8%16.0%16.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.5%15.3%12.3%22.4%5.6%14.6%15.0%
Rev Chg Q24.2%18.3%16.6%33.1%16.6%13.4%17.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.5%4.2%3.6%7.0%3.6%3.2%3.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM21.6%22.0%19.2%21.2%15.7%16.7%20.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg25.6%20.7%108.4%50.4%9.6%37.6%31.6%
Op Mgn LTM33.1%46.8%11.5%41.2%32.6%29.7%32.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg31.9%45.6%10.2%40.5%31.8%27.7%31.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.1%0.3%-0.2%0.3%-0.0%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM41.6%53.5%20.0%57.7%31.1%24.7%36.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.5%49.5%18.1%55.9%29.1%22.1%32.8%
FCF/Rev LTM11.9%22.9%-0.3%22.4%28.6%23.1%22.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.1%26.1%3.5%29.3%26.6%20.7%23.4%

Valuation

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Mkt Cap3,885.22,834.52,493.61,508.24,886.5293.62,664.0
P/S8.78.93.47.010.86.17.9
P/Op Inc26.319.029.217.033.220.523.4
P/EBIT12.918.021.116.633.216.917.5
P/E15.922.627.521.439.921.522.1
P/CFO20.916.716.812.234.824.518.9
Total Yield6.6%5.3%3.6%5.0%2.8%4.6%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.9%0.0%0.4%0.3%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%2.2%1.0%3.4%3.1%2.5%2.4%
D/E0.00.00.10.10.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Returns

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
1M Rtn-7.0%8.2%2.2%9.6%21.0%-1.1%5.2%
3M Rtn-7.1%-9.9%-12.1%-11.7%23.0%-24.2%-10.8%
6M Rtn-2.4%-17.7%-2.9%-9.5%34.5%-18.6%-6.2%
12M Rtn66.0%-25.1%0.3%-16.2%56.3%-40.6%-8.0%
3Y Rtn149.5%15.7%81.1%101.1%73.6%65.8%77.4%
1M Excs Rtn-8.1%3.7%-1.7%6.0%12.9%-3.2%1.0%
3M Excs Rtn-9.9%-12.3%-13.3%-13.9%17.6%-28.8%-12.8%
6M Excs Rtn-10.4%-22.2%-8.2%-15.1%27.1%-23.3%-12.7%
12M Excs Rtn52.0%-40.5%-14.9%-32.9%39.6%-57.0%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn102.0%-52.3%9.1%27.7%10.7%-15.6%9.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Google Services342,721304,930272,543253,528237,529
Google Cloud58,70543,22933,08826,28019,206
Other Bets1,5371,6481,5271,068753
Hedging gains (losses)-1272112361,960149
Total402,836350,018307,394282,836257,637


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Google Services139,404121,26395,85882,69988,132
Google Cloud13,9106,1121,716-1,922-2,282
Other Bets-7,515-4,444-4,095-4,636-4,051
Alphabet-level activities-16,760-10,541-9,186-1,299-3,085
Total129,039112,39084,29374,84278,714


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$319.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3,868.5 
First Trading Date08/19/2004 
Distance from 52W High-20.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$364.63$323.59
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-12.3%-1.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility39.0%31.5%
Downside Capture190.27122.86
Upside Capture125.24160.70
Correlation (SPY)53.9%57.2%
GOOGL Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.151.191.571.301.341.15
Up Beta2.352.552.151.801.871.13
Down Beta0.140.490.570.910.831.10
Up Capture87%63%170%138%222%223%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days9183360135413
Down Capture137%140%145%118%104%103%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days12233065117337

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL68.9%31.4%1.69-
Sector ETF (XLC)-1.0%14.4%-0.2962.2%
Equity (SPY)17.6%12.7%1.0057.0%
Gold (GLD)19.2%28.1%0.6121.7%
Commodities (DBC)34.7%19.1%1.42-14.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.8%14.1%0.6916.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.2%42.9%-1.3220.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL20.5%31.8%0.63-
Sector ETF (XLC)6.7%20.8%0.2476.3%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5867.6%
Gold (GLD)17.0%18.4%0.7511.8%
Commodities (DBC)9.6%19.5%0.387.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.0%18.9%0.0634.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.3%53.4%0.4728.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL24.3%29.3%0.79-
Sector ETF (XLC)8.7%22.2%0.4480.8%
Equity (SPY)14.9%17.9%0.7171.5%
Gold (GLD)11.3%16.1%0.579.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%17.9%0.3216.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2141.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.1%66.2%0.9819.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity78.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6302026-8.4%
Average Daily Volume22.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity12,151.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Updated 7/26/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/22/2026-7.1%  
4/29/202610.0%13.7%8.7%
2/4/2026-0.5%-6.6%-10.4%
10/29/20252.5%3.5%14.7%
7/23/20251.0%3.3%5.0%
4/24/20251.7%1.3%5.8%
2/4/2025-7.3%-10.2%-16.5%
10/29/20242.8%0.0%-0.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141514
# Negative11910
Median Positive4.4%3.5%8.0%
Median Negative-5.0%-6.6%-8.7%
Max Positive10.2%13.7%16.4%
Max Negative-9.5%-13.4%-16.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/22/2026-7.1%  
4/29/202610.0%13.7%8.7%
2/4/2026-0.5%-6.6%-10.4%
10/29/20252.5%3.5%14.7%
7/23/20251.0%3.3%5.0%
4/24/20251.7%1.3%5.8%
2/4/2025-7.3%-10.2%-16.5%
10/29/20242.8%0.0%-0.3%
7/23/2024-5.0%-6.3%-8.8%
4/25/202410.2%6.8%12.2%
1/30/2024-7.5%-4.9%-8.6%
10/24/2023-9.5%-10.6%-0.2%
7/25/20235.8%7.6%8.3%
4/25/2023-0.1%1.4%16.4%
2/2/2023-2.7%-11.8%-11.7%
10/25/2022-9.1%-13.4%-5.8%
7/26/20227.7%9.6%8.3%
4/26/2022-3.7%-1.1%-10.8%
2/1/20227.5%1.3%-2.7%
10/26/20215.0%4.4%4.9%
7/27/20213.2%2.8%7.7%
4/27/20213.0%0.7%3.9%
2/2/20217.3%8.1%6.0%
10/29/20203.8%13.2%12.7%
7/30/2020-3.3%-2.2%6.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141514
# Negative11910
Median Positive4.4%3.5%8.0%
Median Negative-5.0%-6.6%-8.7%
Max Positive10.2%13.7%16.4%
Max Negative-9.5%-13.4%-16.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202301/31/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/03/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202301/31/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/03/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202204/27/202210-Q
12/31/202102/02/202210-K
09/30/202110/27/202110-Q
06/30/202107/28/202110-Q
03/31/202104/28/202110-Q
12/31/202002/03/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201902/04/202010-K
09/30/201910/29/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 7/23/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell7012026349.298,9983,142,91626,298,079Form
2Arnold, Frances DirectSell6302026351.2811239,3436,615,656Form
3Saraci, MarsidaVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell6292026341.72449153,4329,345,359Form
4Hennessy, John L TrustSell6172026368.631,050387,063545,944Form
5Arnold, Frances DirectSell6012026381.0010238,8627,132,701Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell7012026349.298,9983,142,91626,298,079Form
2Arnold, Frances DirectSell6302026351.2811239,3436,615,656Form
3Saraci, MarsidaVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell6292026341.72449153,4329,345,359Form
4Hennessy, John L TrustSell6172026368.631,050387,063545,944Form
5Arnold, Frances DirectSell6012026381.0010238,8627,132,701Form
6Hennessy, John L TrustSell5192026393.261,050412,920995,333Form
7Arnold, Frances DirectSell5012026371.0010237,8426,908,391Form
8Hennessy, John L TrustSell4172026331.651,050348,2321,187,638Form
9O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4032026289.63617178,7022,923,236Form
10Arnold, Frances DirectSell3312026275.1910228,0695,040,380Form
11Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell3312026275.898,9932,481,11714,293,529Form
12Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3182026307.8932,50010,006,385505,571,844Form
13Hennessy, John L TrustSell3182026303.411,050318,5791,405,084Form
14Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3062026303.3832,5009,859,694508,019,980Form
15O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell3042026298.00955284,5902,955,564Form
16Arnold, Frances DirectSell3042026302.9911233,9355,580,470Form
17Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell2192026301.4547,57414,341,4143,987,344Form
18Hennessy, John L TrustSell2172026306.73600184,0376,325,958Form
19Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell2062026335.1832,50010,893,259730,475,777Form
20O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell2032026336.55933314,0013,337,230Form
21Arnold, Frances DirectSell1302026340.0010234,6806,224,380Form
22Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell1232026327.3032,50010,637,368723,953,713Form
23Hennessy, John L TrustSell1152026337.52600202,5147,163,589Form
24Arnold, Frances DirectSell12312025313.4510231,9725,706,357Form
25Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell12302025314.8917,8295,614,09513,531,264Form
26Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell12172025299.8032,5009,743,373671,429,024Form
27Hennessy, John L TrustSell12172025308.19600184,9151,206,876Form
28O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell12172025312.302,778867,5692,798,833Form
29Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell12052025319.5032,50010,383,861725,949,752Form
30O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell12022025317.00954302,4183,721,580Form
31Arnold, Frances DirectSell12022025317.6610232,4015,750,917Form
32Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell11212025296.6432,5009,640,679683,633,620Form
33O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11182025288.262,778800,7773,383,845Form
34Hennessy, John L TrustSell11172025280.06600168,0341,264,737Form
35Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell11072025283.4832,5009,212,980662,517,872Form
36O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11042025282.33954269,3434,098,585Form
37Arnold, Frances DirectSell11032025291.8011232,6825,253,567Form
38O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell10172025250.052,778694,6513,629,789Form
39Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell10172025250.1532,5008,129,735592,750,010Form
40Hennessy, John L TrustSell10152025242.92600145,7541,242,797Form
41O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell10022025241.20953229,8644,171,313Form
42Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell10012025243.4132,5007,910,743584,693,703Form
43Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell10012025247.4217,8164,408,12210,635,560Form
44Arnold, Frances DirectSell9302025243.1310325,0424,202,259Form
45Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell9172025249.5032,5008,108,846598,156,367Form
46O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell9162025245.002,778680,6104,236,785Form
47Hennessy, John L TrustSell9162025249.44600149,6631,425,788Form
48Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell9042025229.7332,5007,466,217558,218,461Form
49Arnold, Frances DirectSell8292025207.8010221,1963,613,019Form
50Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell8212025199.9232,5006,497,244492,269,581Form
51Shriram, Kavitark Ram DirectSell8182025205.0014,0002,870,00047,027,000Form
52Shriram, Kavitark Ram SpouseSell8182025205.0012,0002,460,00046,822,000Form
53Hennessy, John L TrustSell8142025203.79600122,2731,287,123Form
54Hennessy, John L TrustSell8112025200.001,000200,0001,383,200Form
55Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell8062025196.2332,5006,377,360489,563,818Form
56Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell8062025194.7023,8204,637,7548,371,905Form
57Arnold, Frances DirectSell7312025196.3110119,8273,433,462Form
58Shriram, Kavitark Ram DirectSell7212025185.7618,5663,448,82045,213,984Form
59Shriram, Kavitark Ram SpouseSell7212025185.7615,0002,786,40044,656,704Form
60Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell7172025184.3832,5005,992,318465,998,081Form
61Hennessy, John L TrustSell7162025181.9840072,7931,094,259Form
62Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell7022025178.5232,5005,801,921456,993,542Form
63Arnold, Frances DirectSell6302025180.7212121,8673,142,540Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 26, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Himalaya Capital Management LLC$1.4 Bil44.8%14Hold13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$425.3 Mil37.5%12ADD +14.6%13F
Provident Trust Co$1.6 Bil33.5%22TRIM -13.3%13F
Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC$69.6 Mil26.8%117Hold13F
Founders Capital Management, LLC$158.7 Mil26.1%74Hold13F
Venator Management LLC$104.9 Mil25.2%28Hold13F
Saybrook Capital /NC$93.6 Mil25.2%42Hold13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$150.8 Mil24.2%15TRIM -8.2%13F
Tikvah Management LLC$77.6 Mil24.1%21Hold13F
ArchPoint Investors$96.9 Mil23.1%78Hold13F
Violich Capital Management, Inc.$190.9 Mil22.3%118Hold13F
SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd$402.6 Mil21.9%6ADD +7.7%13F
Laura & John Arnold Foundation$93.2 Mil21.7%4TRIM -50.1%13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$840.1 Mil21.7%35ADD +8.6%13F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$126.8 Mil21.4%10TRIM -65.1%13F
Bourne Lent Asset Management Inc$57.4 Mil21.1%63Hold13F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$897.0 Mil20.5%40TRIM -30.9%13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$261.4 Mil20.1%11Hold13F
Fullerton Fund Management Co Ltd.$237.8 Mil19.0%125TRIM -30.6%13F
Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A.$50.1 Mil18.7%10Hold13F
McMillan Office, Inc.$146.0 Mil18.7%500Hold13F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$179.7 Mil18.0%32Hold13F
Rokos Capital Management LLP$955.2 Mil17.0%127TRIM -19.0%13F
Nellore Capital Management LLC$130.2 Mil16.6%11New13F
Aljian Capital Management, LLC$80.6 Mil16.6%131Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Scge Management, L.P.$461.0 Mil14.0%21New13F
SurgoCap Partners LP$427.1 Mil14.3%14New13F
Nellore Capital Management LLC$130.2 Mil16.6%11New13F
Southeast Asset Advisors, LLC$127.8 Mil14.0%217New13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$109.4 Mil13.3%23New13F
Trybe Capital Management LP$71.7 Mil16.2%6New13F
Pinpoint Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.$66.9 Mil15.7%144New13F
Jupiter Wealth Management LLC$39.7 Mil15.7%90New13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$425.3 Mil37.5%12ADD +14.6%13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$840.1 Mil21.7%35ADD +8.6%13F
SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd$402.6 Mil21.9%6ADD +7.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Troy Asset Management Ltd$588.3 Mil15.2%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Himension Capital (Singapore) PTE. LTD.$400.8 Mil24.7%95ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Trivest Advisors Ltd$355.7 Mil16.2%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Laurion Capital Management LP$241.4 Mil16.5%230ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd$225.8 Mil34.6%5ExitedDec 31, 202513F
DV Trading LLC$203.3 Mil17.6%995ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Anatole Investment Management Ltd$110.1 Mil18.4%15ExitedDec 31, 202513F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$98.2 Mil16.1%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co$79.1 Mil16.0%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Soros Capital Management LLC$77.3 Mil20.3%57ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Ariose Capital Management Ltd$68.7 Mil23.0%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$126.8 Mil21.4%10TRIM -65.1%Mar 31, 202613F
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Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD.$129.1 Mil13.5%24TRIM -9.5%13F

GOOGL Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is constructive, centered on explosive AI-driven growth in the Cloud business. This is validated by a $514 billion contractual backlog, which provides high visibility. The company is aggressively investing to meet this demand, causing significant near-term cash burn, which warrants caution until the returns on this historic capital deployment become clearer.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: A dominant transaction-based advertising business, a rapidly growing consumption-based enterprise cloud business, and a recurring-revenue subscription business.

Revenue = (Ad Volume x Ad Price) + (Cloud Consumption x Cloud Price) + (Subscribers x Subscription Price) Leverage in the advertising model and scaling the high-growth, high-margin enterprise AI and Cloud business.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can a historic AI investment cycle generate commensurate returns?

Evidence suggests yes. Explosive demand is being converted into a massive, contractually-committed backlog, justifying the capital outlay.

Mechanism: Monetizing the $514 billion Google Cloud backlog, where over 50% is expected to become revenue in the next 24 months, driving profit growth.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 82% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
  • The Google Cloud backlog grew by over $50 billion in one quarter to $514 billion.
  • Cloud operating margin expanded to 35.6% from 20.7% in the prior year's quarter.
  • API token processing grew from 16 billion to 22 billion per minute in one quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
Capital Intensity Destroys Value

The AI arms race could force a level of spending that compresses free cash flow and returns for years, even if revenue goals are met.

Mechanism: A sustained period of negative free cash flow as CapEx continues to ramp significantly in 2027.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Full-year 2026 CapEx guidance was raised to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion.
  • Management expects CapEx to 'increase significantly in 2027'.
  • The company reported negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion in the second quarter.
  • Using third-party capacity will create 'modest margin pressure in the near term'.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Google Cloud Revenue Growth82% year-over-year growth for Q2 2026 - AcceleratingThe year-over-year growth rate has shown dramatic acceleration over the past three quarters. Management attributes this to strong demand for AI infrastructure and solutions. The latest quarter was the first to include revenues from TPU system sales, but the CFO noted that growth accelerated meaningfully even excluding this impact.
Google Cloud Backlog$514 billion as of the end of Q2 2026 - AcceleratingThe backlog has more than doubled in six months, with a near-doubling in Q1 followed by a sequential increase of over $50 billion in Q2. Management states the increase is driven by strong demand for Enterprise AI offerings, with the Q1 jump also including TPU hardware sales.
Gemini App Monthly Active Users (MAUs)950 million (Q2 2026)Indicates the scale and adoption of the company's flagship consumer AI application, which serves as a key platform for deploying new agentic features and potentially future monetization.
Model API Token ProcessingApproximately 22 billion tokens per minute (Q2 2026)Measures the consumption and usage of the company's AI models by developers and enterprise customers, reflecting the underlying demand for its AI platform and infrastructure.
Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth (YoY)24.2% (Q2 2026)The overall top-line growth rate of the company, indicating accelerating momentum compared to the prior quarter's 21.8% growth.
Core Investment Debate

Backlog Growth vs. Cash Burn

BULL VIEW

The $514 billion Cloud backlog is a powerful leading indicator that the massive CapEx spend is being pre-sold into overwhelming, durable demand for AI infrastructure.

CORE TENSION

Can the 82% growth in Cloud, validated by a $514B backlog, justify a CapEx plan that drove free cash flow negative by $5.9B last quarter?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bull view. The sequential backlog growth of over $50 billion is a contractual validation of future revenue that mitigates the risk of the current investment.

BEAR VIEW

The negative $5.9 billion free cash flow in Q2 and guidance for more spending in 2027 signals a value-destructive arms race, regardless of top-line growth.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
in Q3
Lapping Stronger Search Comps
Watch: The company will begin lapping an acceleration in Search performance that began in the third quarter of last year.
in Q3
Third-Party Capacity Expansion
Watch: The company plans to expand the use of third-party capacity as a bridging strategy while building more internal capacity.
10/19/2026
Netflix Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings.
10/27/2026
Cloud Margin Pressure
Watch: Google Cloud operating margin performance and management commentary on the cost and duration of using third-party capacity.
10/27/2026
Peer AI Spending Signal
Watch: Microsoft's Azure growth rate, AI-related revenue, and forward capex guidance. Any signs of accelerating demand capture could be negative.
10/28/2026
Amazon Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings.
No set date
Ad Spend Slowdown
Watch: Commentary from management on advertiser behavior, particularly in consumer-facing verticals. Changes in Search or YouTube ads growth rates.
No set date
Regulatory Case Development
Watch: Court filings, judicial rulings, or regulatory statements related to the DOJ Search case or the EC AdSense for Search case.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-23
EC Android Fine Paid
Details: In July 2026, the company made a cash payment of $5.2 billion for a fine plus accrued interest related to a European Commission decision on Android.
-7.1%
$342.09 -> $317.69
2026-07-23
Major Acquisitions Completed
Details: In March 2026, the company completed its acquisition of Wiz for $29.5 billion and Intersect for $5.9 billion.
-7.1%
$342.09 -> $317.69
2026-07-23
DOJ Lawsuit Appeal Filed
Details: In January 2026, the company appealed the final judgment from the US District Court for the District of Columbia concerning its Search and Search advertising practices.
-7.1%
$342.09 -> $317.69
2026-07-22
Q2 2026 Earnings Miss
Details: The company reported Q2 2026 earnings, after which the two-day stock reaction was -8.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500.
-8.5%
$347.15 -> $317.69
2026-06-18
Berkshire Hathaway Increases Stake
Details: News reports in June indicated that Berkshire Hathaway nearly tripled its Alphabet stake to roughly 57.8 million shares, valued at about $16.6 billion.
-3.9%
$363.79 -> $349.68
2026-05-18
Musk vs OpenAI Trial
Details: A high-profile trial involving Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman for allegedly violating a non-profit commitment took place, with jury deliberations beginning in May.
-2.3%
$396.54 -> $387.43
2026-04-29
Q1 2026 Earnings Beat
Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-04-29 was 10.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500.
+10.0%
$349.57 -> $384.57
2026-02-04
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported
Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-02-04 was -2.0%.
-2.5%
$339.27 -> $330.82
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: GOOGL trades at roughly 33% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market), around the 82nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise Software Leader

Microsoft has a stronger entrenched position in enterprise software, with over 20 million paid seats for its integrated Copilot AI assistant providing a powerful distribution channel.

Core Thesis: The company is successfully embedding AI across its dominant productivity and cloud platforms, driving adoption and high-margin, recurring revenue.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Cloud Market Incumbent

Amazon's AWS is the largest cloud provider by revenue, with its growth recently accelerating to 28% on a $150 billion annualized run rate, demonstrating immense scale.

Core Thesis: The company is leveraging its market-leading cloud position and investments in custom silicon to capture a significant share of enterprise AI workloads.
How Is The Market Pricing GOOGL?

Alphabet is an AI infrastructure company monetized through advertising and enterprise cloud consumption, where massive capital investment is creating a supply-constrained growth engine.

Alphabet is aggressively investing in a full-stack AI approach, from custom chips (TPUs) to frontier models (Gemini), which is driving accelerating growth. This is most evident in its Cloud segment, which grew 82% and has a backlog of over half a trillion dollars. While this requires a significant increase in capital expenditures, management sees it as essential to capture a generational opportunity. The core Search business is also benefiting, with AI features driving record query volumes.

What will confirm the thesis

Continued acceleration in Google Cloud revenue and backlog growth, evidence of successful monetization of AI features in Search without margin degradation, and maintaining a lead in frontier AI model development.

What will damage the thesis

A slowdown in Cloud growth, margin compression from increased CapEx and AI serving costs that is not offset by revenue, or evidence that competitors are gaining a definitive lead in AI model performance or adoption.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term stock price reactions to single earnings reports, or legal battles between tech billionaires as reported in May, unless they directly impact Alphabet's competitive standing or operations.

Repricing Catalyst

The market is currently processing the implications of the massive acceleration in Google Cloud's growth (82% YoY) and backlog ($514B) against the backdrop of a significant increase in CapEx guidance. The stock's -8.0% reaction around the latest earnings report suggests concern over the level of investment required, despite the strong demand signals.

What GOOGL Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Google Services
$355.1B TTM (84% of Total) · 41% Margin
What It Is

Sells performance and brand advertising to businesses of all sizes. It also sells consumer subscriptions for services like YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, and Google One, as well as hardware devices like the Pixel family.

Who Pays & How

Advertisers pay to connect with users and drive measurable results across Google's properties (Search, YouTube, Maps). Consumers pay for premium content, ad-free experiences, and expanded cloud storage. They choose Google for its massive user reach and the utility of its integrated products.

Advertising is priced on a performance basis (e.g., cost-per-click) or impression basis. Subscriptions are typically recurring monthly fees. Hardware is sold via direct-to-consumer and retail channels.
Competition
Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN)
Meta has higher gross and operating margins. Amazon has significantly larger revenue. Apple has higher free-cash-flow margin and market capitalization. Microsoft has higher operating and free-cash-flow margins.
The company's moat is its vast ecosystem of widely adopted products (Search, Android, Chrome, YouTube) with billions of users, which creates a powerful network effect for its advertising business. The company's full-stack approach to AI, from custom chips (TPUs) to frontier models (Gemini), is a key differentiator.
Google Cloud
$66.5B TTM (16% of Total) · 28% Margin
What It Is

Sells cloud-based solutions to enterprise customers, including infrastructure (Google Cloud Platform), platform services, AI offerings (Gemini Enterprise, Vertex AI), cybersecurity, data analytics, and collaboration tools (Google Workspace). It also began selling TPU systems directly to customers.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises pay for scalable, on-demand computing power, AI capabilities, and productivity tools to modernize their IT systems, reduce costs, and innovate. Customers choose Google Cloud for its integrated AI portfolio, including custom chips, models, and agent platforms.

Primarily consumption-based fees and subscriptions for infrastructure, platform, and other services. Google Workspace is priced on a subscription basis.
Competition
Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN)
Microsoft's cloud business (as part of its Intelligent Cloud segment) has higher operating margins. Amazon's AWS is the largest cloud provider by revenue.
The company's integrated AI portfolio, spanning custom chips (TPUs), proprietary models (Gemini), and platforms, is a key differentiator. This full-stack approach allows for optimization of performance and cost, attracting customers focused on AI workloads.
Other Bets
$1.5B TTM (0% of Total) · -560% Margin
What It Is

A portfolio of early-stage businesses at various stages of development. Revenue is generated primarily from the sale of autonomous transportation services (Waymo) and internet services.

Who Pays & How

Consumers pay for autonomous ride-hailing services. The segment represents long-term investments in 'moonshot' technologies.

Transactional fees for services like ride-hailing.
Competition
Long-term investment and technological development in frontier technologies, backed by Alphabet's significant capital resources.
GOOGL Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2023 · Advertising Dominance
+62%
During this period, Google Services, primarily driven by advertising, constituted the vast majority of Alphabet's revenue, growing from 237,529 to 342,721 in 2025. Google Cloud was a smaller, but rapidly growing segment, turning from an operating loss to profitability.
2024-Present · The AI Infrastructure Build-out
+132%
This era is defined by a massive strategic pivot to AI, reflected in skyrocketing capital expenditures and the explosive growth of the Google Cloud segment. Cloud revenue growth accelerated dramatically, driven by demand for AI infrastructure and solutions, establishing it as a second major growth engine for the company, validated by a backlog exceeding half a trillion dollars.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-10 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Broken In Short Term · -
2 Momentum Deteriorating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Strong Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/25/2026