Alphabet (GOOGL)


Market Price (11/1/2026): $281.45 | Market Cap: $3.5 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Alphabet (GOOGL)


Market Price (11/1/2026): $281.45
Market Cap: $3.5 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 180 Bil, FCF LTM is 20 Bil

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 124 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x

Key risks
GOOGL key risks include [1] the structural threat of generative AI disrupting its core search business and [2] intensifying global antitrust investigations that could force divestitures or major changes to its business practices.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 180 Bil, FCF LTM is 20 Bil
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
5 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 124 Bil
6 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
7 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more.
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
9 Key risks
GOOGL key risks include [1] the structural threat of generative AI disrupting its core search business and [2] intensifying global antitrust investigations that could force divestitures or major changes to its business practices.

GOOGL in ETFs

Weight = GOOGL's share of each fund

SPY2.8%
VOO3.1%
IVV2.9%
VTI2.8%
ITOT2.2%
QQQ2.9%
QQQM3.0%
DIA3.2%
+40 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/31/2026

Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Miss and Decelerating Search Advertising Growth. Alphabet reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), falling short of the consensus estimate of $3.01. Total revenue of $127.58 billion also missed the estimated $127.97 billion. A primary driver for this shortfall was the slowdown in Google Search & other advertising revenue growth, which increased by 12% in fiscal Q3 2026 to approximately $63.3 billion, a decline from the 17% growth observed in fiscal Q2 2026. This deceleration was partially attributed to AI Mode queries generating lower monetization compared to traditional searches.

2. Soaring AI Infrastructure Investments Leading to Negative Free Cash Flow. Capital expenditures surged by 114% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $51.36 billion. This aggressive spending on AI infrastructure outstripped the operating cash flow of $42.29 billion, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion for the quarter. This marked a significant drop from the positive $24.46 billion reported in the same period last year and represented the lowest free cash flow in the past 16 quarters. Alphabet also maintained its substantial 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $195 billion to $205 billion and indicated further increases for 2027.

Show more
Updated on 10/31/2026

Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Miss and Decelerating Search Advertising Growth. Alphabet reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), falling short of the consensus estimate of $3.01. Total revenue of $127.58 billion also missed the estimated $127.97 billion. A primary driver for this shortfall was the slowdown in Google Search & other advertising revenue growth, which increased by 12% in fiscal Q3 2026 to approximately $63.3 billion, a decline from the 17% growth observed in fiscal Q2 2026. This deceleration was partially attributed to AI Mode queries generating lower monetization compared to traditional searches.

2. Soaring AI Infrastructure Investments Leading to Negative Free Cash Flow. Capital expenditures surged by 114% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $51.36 billion. This aggressive spending on AI infrastructure outstripped the operating cash flow of $42.29 billion, resulting in a negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion for the quarter. This marked a significant drop from the positive $24.46 billion reported in the same period last year and represented the lowest free cash flow in the past 16 quarters. Alphabet also maintained its substantial 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $195 billion to $205 billion and indicated further increases for 2027.

3. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Surging Long-Term Interest Rates. The period was characterized by a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly surging long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed to 5.28% by September 30, 2026, levels not seen since 2007. This increase in interest rates translates to higher financing costs for companies and generally reduces the present value of future earnings, contributing to a broader selloff in growth-oriented technology stocks, including Alphabet.

4. Unrealized Loss on Investment in SpaceX. Alphabet's financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 were negatively impacted by an $8.2 billion loss in other income and expenses. This was primarily due to an unrealized loss from its investment in SpaceX, which experienced a decline in its stock price during the quarter.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.4% change in GOOGL stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202610312026Change
Stock Price ($)355.90279.84-21.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)445,867471,0985.7%
Net Income Margin (%)54.8%50.0%-8.7%
P/E Multiple17.714.6-17.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,15112,256-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution-21.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL-21.4% 
Market (SPY)1.2%44.9%
Sector (XLC)-7.7%58.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -27.2% change in GOOGL stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202610312026Change
Stock Price ($)384.32279.84-27.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)422,499471,09811.5%
Net Income Margin (%)37.9%50.0%31.9%
P/E Multiple29.014.6-49.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,09912,256-1.3%
Cumulative Contribution-27.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL-27.2% 
Market (SPY)5.4%46.4%
Sector (XLC)-14.0%66.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -0.2% change in GOOGL stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202510312026Change
Stock Price ($)280.46279.84-0.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)385,477471,09822.2%
Net Income Margin (%)32.2%50.0%55.2%
P/E Multiple27.314.6-46.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,08612,256-1.4%
Cumulative Contribution-0.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL-0.2% 
Market (SPY)11.7%53.5%
Sector (XLC)-12.2%63.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 127.7% change in GOOGL stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 122.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202310312026Change
Stock Price ($)122.91279.84127.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)297,132471,09858.5%
Net Income Margin (%)22.5%50.0%122.8%
P/E Multiple23.214.6-37.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12,58112,2562.7%
Cumulative Contribution127.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GOOGL127.7% 
Market (SPY)86.9%55.9%
Sector (XLC)59.3%66.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GOOGL Return65%-39%58%36%66%-10%222%
Peers Return25%-44%89%47%10%-0%114%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GOOGL Win Rate83%25%67%67%75%30% 
Peers Win Rate60%30%75%68%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GOOGL Max Drawdown-8%-44%-17%-22%-30%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-53%-18%-16%-29%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventGOOGLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven101 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-17.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven127 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven449 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-30.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven86 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-11.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven52 days62 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX

In The Past

Alphabet's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventGOOGLS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven101 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven449 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-30.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-20.6%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.9%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven105 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-63.8%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven176.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1394 days1085 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, NFLX

In The Past

Alphabet's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alphabet (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is a global technology conglomerate operating across various sectors, primarily focused on internet services, software, and hardware. The company structures its diverse offerings into three main segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. This broad portfolio allows Alphabet to serve a vast global audience, from individual consumers to large enterprises across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.

The largest segment, Google Services, encompasses the products and platforms most people associate with Google. This includes its dominant search engine, Android mobile operating system, Chrome web browser, and widely used applications like Gmail, Google Maps, Google Photos, and YouTube. A significant portion of its revenue comes from advertising within Search and YouTube. Additionally, this segment develops and sells hardware, such as Pixel phones, Fitbit wearable devices, and Google Nest smart home products, catering directly to consumers worldwide and generating revenue through app and content sales on Google Play.

Beyond its consumer-facing products, Alphabet also provides robust enterprise solutions through its Google Cloud segment. This offers cloud computing infrastructure, platforms, and various services, alongside Google Workspace, a suite of cloud-based collaboration tools like Gmail, Docs, and Drive tailored for businesses. The "Other Bets" segment represents Alphabet's ventures into emerging technologies and long-term projects, including health technology and experimental internet services, demonstrating its commitment to innovation and future growth across various industries.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Alphabet is like "Amazon for the internet's information and advertising," combined with a leading cloud computing service.
  • Alphabet is like a combination of Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft, dominating digital advertising, consumer software platforms (Android, Chrome), and enterprise cloud services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Search Engine (Google Search): Provides information retrieval across the internet.
  • Advertising Platforms (Google Ads): Offers advertising solutions for businesses across Google's vast network.
  • Mobile Operating System (Android): Powers a wide range of smartphones and other devices.
  • Web Browser (Chrome): A popular web browser for accessing the internet.
  • Productivity & Collaboration Tools (Gmail, Drive, Photos, Maps): A suite of services for email, cloud storage, photo management, and navigation.
  • Digital Content Store (Google Play): A platform for downloading apps, games, movies, and other digital content.
  • Video Hosting & Streaming (YouTube): A platform for users to upload, watch, and share videos, including non-advertising subscription services.
  • Consumer Hardware (Pixel, Nest, Fitbit): Manufactures smartphones, smart home devices, and wearable fitness trackers.
  • Cloud Computing Services (Google Cloud): Offers infrastructure, platform, and other cloud services for enterprises.
  • Enterprise Collaboration Software (Google Workspace): Provides cloud-based productivity and collaboration tools like Gmail, Docs, and Meet for businesses.
  • Health Technology Services: Develops and sells health-related technology and services.
  • Other Internet Services: Engages in various other internet-based services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of Alphabet (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. primarily sells its products and services to other companies. Its major customers fall into two broad categories:

  • Advertisers: A vast number of businesses across virtually every industry globally utilize Alphabet's advertising platforms (Google Search, YouTube, Google Display Network) to reach individuals. These range from small and medium-sized businesses to large multinational corporations. Due to the sheer volume and proprietary nature of advertising relationships, Alphabet does not typically disclose a comprehensive list of its major advertising customers. Effectively, any public company that advertises online is a customer.
  • Enterprise and Cloud Customers: Businesses of all sizes subscribe to Google Cloud services, which include infrastructure, platforms, and Google Workspace collaboration tools. Alphabet has publicly announced numerous major enterprise customers for its Google Cloud segment. Examples of such major public company customers include:
    • Coca-Cola Co (KO)
    • Target Corp (TGT)
    • The Home Depot Inc (HD)
    • Ford Motor Company (F)
    • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
    • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
    • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMUY)

While Alphabet also sells hardware (e.g., Pixel phones, Nest products) and digital content directly to individuals, its primary revenue streams and major customer relationships are with other businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
  • Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2317.TW)
  • Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
  • Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sundar Pichai, Chief Executive Officer of Alphabet and Google

Sundar Pichai joined Google in 2004, where he led product management and innovation efforts for products such as Google Chrome, ChromeOS, and Google Drive. He also oversaw the development of applications like Gmail and Google Maps. Pichai was appointed CEO of Google in 2015 and subsequently became the CEO of its parent company, Alphabet Inc., in 2019. Before his tenure at Google, he worked in engineering and product management at Applied Materials and in management consulting at McKinsey & Company.

Anat Ashkenazi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Alphabet and Google

Anat Ashkenazi was appointed as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google, with her role becoming effective on July 31, 2024. Prior to joining Alphabet, she served as the Chief Financial Officer at Eli Lilly and Company for over two decades, where she gained extensive experience across various financial, strategy, and operations roles within the company's global divisions.

Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet and Google

Ruth Porat has served as the President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet and Google since September 1, 2023. Before transitioning to her current role, she was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google from May 2015 until July 2024. Prior to her time at Google, Porat held the position of Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Morgan Stanley from 2010 to 2015, having spent a total of 27 years at the firm. She is notably credited with structuring the European debt financing that helped save Amazon during the dot-com downturn in 2000. Additionally, she serves on the Board of Directors of Blackstone Inc., a prominent private equity firm.

Philipp Schindler, Senior Vice President, Chief Business Officer, Google

Philipp Schindler is the Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer for Google, overseeing global and regional sales activities for Google and YouTube, as well as technical and consumer operations, product-sales strategy, and partnerships for Android and Chrome. He joined Google in 2005. Before Google, Schindler was a Senior Vice President of Marketing & Sales at AOL Germany, where he was a member of their management board for six years. He also previously served as head of marketing at CompuServe in Germany, an AOL Inc. subsidiary, and was involved in new media activities within Bertelsmann AG's junior talent program.

Kent Walker, President, Global Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary, Alphabet and Google

Kent Walker serves as the President of Global Affairs, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary for Alphabet Inc. and its subsidiary Google. In this capacity, he is responsible for legal matters, public policy, government relations, content policy, and regulatory compliance. Walker joined Google in 2006. His career before Google included executive legal and policy roles at various technology and media companies such as eBay, Liberate Technologies, Netscape, and Airtouch Communications. He also previously served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney at the United States Department of Justice.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Alphabet's business include:

  1. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Alphabet faces intensifying regulatory pressure and ongoing antitrust lawsuits globally due to its dominant market positions in areas such as search, Android, and advertising technology. These legal and regulatory challenges could result in significant fines, forced changes to its business practices, or even a potential breakup of certain parts of the company.
  2. Disruption to Search and Advertising from AI: The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and intelligent agents presents a structural threat to Alphabet's core search and advertising business model. AI-powered search results, which provide direct answers, could reduce the need for users to click on traditional ads, potentially eroding query volume, ad impressions, and click-through rates. Furthermore, new AI-native competitors are not constrained by existing advertising revenue models, making it more challenging for Alphabet to innovate while protecting its cash-generating search engine.
  3. Dependence on Advertising Revenue: A substantial portion of Alphabet's total revenue, approximately 70-77%, is derived from advertising through Google Search and YouTube. This heavy reliance on advertising makes the company vulnerable to fluctuations in digital advertising trends, economic downturns, and increased competition within the digital advertising market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

AI-powered search engines, such as those integrated with large language models like ChatGPT, pose a clear emerging threat to Alphabet's core Search business by offering direct answers and potentially bypassing traditional link-based search results and associated advertising. This shift could fundamentally alter how users find information and consume digital content.

TikTok and other short-form video platforms represent another significant emerging threat, directly competing with YouTube for user attention, creator talent, and advertising revenue, particularly among younger demographics. This competition forces YouTube to adapt its content strategy and monetization models.

Apple's increasing emphasis on user privacy, including initiatives like App Tracking Transparency (ATT), presents an ongoing threat to Alphabet's advertising ecosystem. These changes restrict data collection and ad targeting capabilities across mobile platforms, potentially impacting the effectiveness and profitability of Google's mobile advertising business.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Main Products and Services

Alphabet Inc. operates across diverse and expansive addressable markets globally. The following outlines the market sizes for its key products and services, specifying the relevant regions where available:

Google Services Segment

  • Digital Advertising (including Search and YouTube Ads): The global digital ad spending market size was approximately USD 650.00 billion in 2025 and is expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035. Similarly, the global online advertising market was valued at USD 359.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1,344.68 billion by 2034. North America alone holds approximately 36% of the global online advertising market share.
  • Mobile Operating Systems (Android): The global mobile operating system market size was estimated at USD 54.51 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 57.97 billion in 2026. Another estimate places the market size at USD 69.48 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 465.15 billion by 2033. Android commanded the largest market share of 71.45% in 2025.
  • Hardware (Pixel Phones, Fitbit Wearable Devices, Google Nest Home Products):
    • Smartphones (Pixel Phones): The global smartphone market size was estimated at USD 520.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 651.82 billion by 2030. Another report valued the market at USD 598.92 billion in 2025, with projections to expand from USD 642.64 billion in 2026 to USD 1,129.19 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the smartphone market with a 47.7% revenue share in 2024. North America contributed approximately 20% of global smartphone unit shipments in 2024.
    • Wearable Technology (Fitbit): The global wearable technology market size was valued at USD 86.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 231.43 billion by 2034. North America held the largest market share, accounting for 38.80% of the global wearable technology market in 2025.
    • Smart Home Devices (Google Nest): The global smart home market size was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030. Another source estimated the market at USD 163.30 billion in 2025. North America held a significant share of over 25% of the smart home market in 2024 and dominated the global smart home devices market with a 39.45% market share in 2025.
  • YouTube (Non-advertising services/Online Video Platform): The global online video platform market size was valued at USD 1.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.8 billion by 2033. Another report estimated the market size at USD 11.27 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 47.04 billion by 2033. North America dominates this market with approximately 38% global market share.
  • Google Play (App Store): The global mobile app stores market size was estimated at USD 71.7 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 140.3 billion by 2032. The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Google Play is projected to dominate the mobile application store market with a 59.4% market share in 2025.

Google Cloud Segment

  • Cloud Computing (Google Cloud Platform and Google Workspace infrastructure/platform services): The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 781.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2,904.52 billion by 2034. North America dominated the cloud computing industry with a 52.0% market share in 2025, and the North America market stood at USD 406.08 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 466.77 billion in 2026. The US cloud computing market is expected to grow from USD 485.54 billion in 2025 to USD 721.30 billion by 2030.
  • Enterprise Collaboration Software (Google Workspace): The global enterprise collaboration market size was valued at USD 53.93 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 132.64 billion by 2032. North America dominated this market with a 42.60% share in 2025, and the U.S. market is projected to reach USD 17.06 billion by 2026.

Other Bets Segment

  • Health Technology: The global HealthTech market size was valued at USD 908.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3,140.9 billion by 2033. Another report calculated the global digital health market size at USD 420.08 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,171.24 billion by 2035. North America held the largest market share in 2023 and dominated with a 38.45% revenue share in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

```html

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Alphabet (GOOGL)

Over the next 2-3 years, Alphabet's revenue growth is expected to be driven by several key factors:

  1. AI Monetization across Products: Alphabet is actively integrating its Gemini AI models across its core products such as Search, YouTube, and Google Workspace, with promising early results in generating revenue. This includes enhanced AI-generated responses in Search and new AI tools designed for creators on YouTube. The company also anticipates new revenue streams from advertising within Gemini and improved targeting for Google Search.
  2. Google Cloud Expansion: Google Cloud is a significant engine for growth, propelled by robust demand for its cloud services, an increasing contribution from AI technologies, and a substantial, expanding backlog of business. Alphabet is making considerable investments in AI infrastructure to support this surging demand.
  3. YouTube Advertising and Subscriptions: YouTube's advertising revenue continues to grow, driven by both direct response and brand advertising. Furthermore, YouTube's subscription services, including YouTube Premium, YouTube Music, and YouTube TV, are a rapidly expanding revenue source, having reached $15 billion in annual revenue and increasing fivefold since 2019. The monetization of YouTube Shorts is also expected to contribute to this growth.
  4. Sustained Growth in Google Search and Other Advertising: Google Search remains the largest contributor to Alphabet's overall revenue growth, with strong performance in retail advertising. The ongoing integration of AI is anticipated to further enhance Search capabilities and bolster its continued revenue generation.
  5. Growth in Subscriptions Across Google Services: Beyond YouTube, subscriptions across other Google Services, such as Google One, are contributing to the company's overall revenue growth.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Alphabet repurchased approximately $61.504 billion in shares in 2023 and $62.222 billion in 2024.
  • The company executed $45.709 billion in share buybacks during 2025.
  • Alphabet's Board of Directors authorized an additional $70 billion share repurchase program on April 23, 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Alphabet issued approximately $22.5 billion in stock-based compensation to employees in 2023.
  • The number of shares outstanding generally declined, with 13.599 billion in 2022, 13.313 billion in 2023, 13.079 billion in 2024, and 12.088 billion in 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In September 2022, Alphabet completed the acquisition of cybersecurity firm Mandiant for $5.4 billion to enhance Google Cloud's security offerings.
  • Alphabet announced its largest acquisition to date in March 2025, agreeing to acquire cloud security startup Wiz for $32 billion to further strengthen Google Cloud.
  • In December 2025, Alphabet announced the acquisition of Intersect Power LLC for $4.75 billion (including assumed debt) to secure power supply for its expanding data centers and AI development, with completion expected in the first half of 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $32.251 billion in 2023 and $52.535 billion in 2024.
  • Alphabet's capital expenditures reached approximately $91.447 billion in 2025, an increase from earlier estimates, primarily driven by investments in servers and data center construction.
  • For 2026, Alphabet expects capital expenditures to be in the range of $175 billion to $185 billion, nearly doubling the 2025 figures, with a strong focus on AI infrastructure, cloud computing capacity, and next-generation data centers to meet customer demand and reduce cloud computing backlog.

Better Bets vs. Alphabet (GOOGL)

Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services

GOOGL has outperformed 97% of its 31 Interactive Media & Services peers over 5Y. Interactive Media & Services ranks 9th of 9 industries in Communication Services by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Interactive Media & Services constituents that GOOGL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
78%
of 40 industry peers · -0.2% return
3Y
97%
of 35 industry peers · 123.4% return
5Y
97%
of 31 industry peers · 90.8% return
No Interactive Media & Services peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten GOOGL by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Communication Services sector, ranked by 5Y. Interactive Media & Services is GOOGL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Wireless Telecommunication Services 3 -16.6%13.4%43.0% ECHO 313% · TMUS 43%
Publishing 5 24.6%11.5%22.6% NYT 36% · NWSA 33%
Integrated Telecommunication Services 21 -13.5%-2.5%-25.0% GSAT 233% · AD 135% · TDS 112%
Movies & Entertainment 24 14.7%47.4%-31.6% IMAX 168% · CNK 113% · BATRA 79%
Alternative Carriers 4 -32.3%16.7%-66.9% IRDM 19% · LUMN -55%
Interactive Home Entertainment 8 -44.7%-35.3%-70.5% TTWO 5% · RBLX -49% · PINS -57%
Advertising 18 -32.3%-3.3%-70.8% APP 133% · OMC 43% · STGW 21%
Broadcasting 14 -15.4%-13.6%-71.6% FOXA 69% · NXST 35% · SIRI -47%
Interactive Media & Services ← 32 -38.7%-26.7%-71.6% META 92% · GOOGL 91% · CARG -4%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Mkt Price281.45522.96240.85614.21345.1462.07313.29
Mkt Cap3,449.53,883.52,600.51,567.55,058.4256.63,025.0
Rev LTM471,098346,445797,455241,606466,82349,735406,634
Op Inc LTM156,976163,191104,36679,380154,85915,565129,612
FCF LTM19,74759,957-46,89228,649136,68311,37524,198
FCF 3Y Avg49,70770,2122,20741,937112,4029,15645,822
CFO LTM179,551195,878168,300133,087146,72412,308157,512
CFO 3Y Avg145,359155,021137,232107,802122,7779,790130,004

Growth & Margins

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Rev Chg LTM22.2%17.9%15.4%27.5%14.2%14.7%16.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.7%16.6%12.9%24.0%6.9%15.0%15.8%
Rev Chg Q24.7%18.8%12.1%26.1%16.4%11.8%17.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.7%4.4%2.8%5.9%3.4%2.8%3.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM26.5%20.0%37.0%-3.1%18.9%23.1%21.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg26.0%20.2%64.1%32.6%11.5%38.2%29.3%
Op Mgn LTM33.3%47.1%13.1%32.9%33.2%31.3%33.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg32.1%46.0%11.3%38.7%32.1%28.7%32.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.3%1.0%-5.2%0.5%1.6%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM38.1%56.5%21.1%55.1%31.4%24.7%34.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.1%51.5%19.4%54.9%29.1%22.2%32.6%
FCF/Rev LTM4.2%17.3%-5.9%11.9%29.3%22.9%14.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%24.1%0.9%23.0%26.6%20.8%21.9%

Valuation

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
Mkt Cap3,449.53,883.52,600.51,567.55,058.4256.63,025.0
P/S7.311.23.36.510.85.26.9
P/Op Inc22.023.824.919.732.716.522.9
P/EBIT11.921.514.619.232.713.816.9
P/E14.627.219.320.839.217.420.1
P/CFO19.219.815.511.834.520.919.5
Total Yield7.2%4.4%5.2%5.1%2.9%5.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.7%0.0%0.3%0.3%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%2.0%0.3%2.5%2.8%2.7%2.2%
D/E0.00.00.10.10.00.10.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.10.00.00.00.0

Returns

GOOGLMSFTAMZNMETAAAPLNFLXMedian
NameAlphabet MicrosoftAmazon.c.Meta Pla.Apple Netflix  
1M Rtn-16.8%2.0%-3.0%-15.4%4.5%-8.5%-5.7%
3M Rtn-20.9%12.7%-11.3%10.4%11.8%-13.4%-0.4%
6M Rtn-26.9%26.7%-10.2%1.1%23.4%-32.6%-4.6%
12M Rtn0.4%1.8%-1.4%-4.9%28.1%-44.5%-0.5%
3Y Rtn124.7%54.7%75.8%98.8%101.1%47.7%87.3%
1M Excs Rtn-17.8%1.0%-4.0%-16.4%3.5%-9.5%-6.8%
3M Excs Rtn-26.5%5.6%-17.1%2.3%12.0%-17.2%-7.4%
6M Excs Rtn-34.1%19.6%-17.3%-6.0%16.3%-39.7%-11.7%
12M Excs Rtn-9.7%-15.0%-7.8%-30.4%16.0%-56.0%-12.4%
3Y Excs Rtn40.7%-28.0%13.3%22.2%19.4%-34.0%16.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Google Services342,721304,930272,543253,528237,529
Google Cloud58,70543,22933,08826,28019,206
Other Bets1,5371,6481,5271,068753
Hedging gains (losses)-1272112361,960149
Total402,836350,018307,394282,836257,637


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Google Services139,404121,26395,85882,69988,132
Google Cloud13,9106,1121,716-1,922-2,282
Other Bets-7,515-4,444-4,095-4,636-4,051
Alphabet-level activities-16,760-10,541-9,186-1,299-3,085
Total129,039112,39084,29374,84278,714


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$279.84 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3,429.7 
First Trading Date08/19/2004 
Distance from 52W High-30.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$339.03$340.34
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA-17.5%-17.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility34.3%33.8%
Downside Capture173.18136.89
Upside Capture90.72138.52
Correlation (S&P 500)35.3%50.8%
GOOGL Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.611.461.491.361.411.14
Up Beta2.261.751.931.561.761.11
Down Beta0.511.511.370.970.981.03
Up Capture36%82%79%96%158%196%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days11223159123409
Down Capture310%205%207%171%131%105%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days11213367128342

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL2.2%33.8%0.10-
Sector ETF (XLC)-13.4%16.4%-1.0662.4%
Equity (SPY)10.9%12.8%0.5252.4%
Gold (GLD)-2.0%28.6%-0.0818.4%
Commodities (DBC)48.2%20.6%1.79-19.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)10.2%13.7%0.456.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.0%43.5%-0.7020.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL15.5%32.6%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLC)5.5%21.0%0.1875.0%
Equity (SPY)12.2%17.1%0.5365.8%
Gold (GLD)16.2%19.0%0.6811.5%
Commodities (DBC)9.2%19.5%0.355.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.9%18.9%-0.0632.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.9%51.6%0.2828.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GOOGL
GOOGL21.3%29.9%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLC)8.0%22.1%0.3980.0%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7270.4%
Gold (GLD)11.4%16.5%0.569.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3715.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%20.7%0.2139.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.8%66.2%1.0219.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity78.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-2.4%
Average Daily Volume23.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity12,256.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/1/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2026-12.6%  
7/22/2026-7.1%-1.6%-0.4%
4/29/202610.0%13.7%8.7%
2/4/2026-0.5%-6.6%-10.4%
10/29/20252.5%3.5%14.7%
7/23/20251.0%3.3%5.0%
4/24/20251.7%1.3%5.8%
2/4/2025-7.3%-10.2%-16.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131412
# Negative11911
Median Positive5.0%3.4%8.0%
Median Negative-7.1%-6.6%-8.6%
Max Positive10.2%13.7%16.4%
Max Negative-12.6%-13.4%-16.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2026-12.6%  
7/22/2026-7.1%-1.6%-0.4%
4/29/202610.0%13.7%8.7%
2/4/2026-0.5%-6.6%-10.4%
10/29/20252.5%3.5%14.7%
7/23/20251.0%3.3%5.0%
4/24/20251.7%1.3%5.8%
2/4/2025-7.3%-10.2%-16.5%
10/29/20242.8%0.0%-0.3%
7/23/2024-5.0%-6.3%-8.8%
4/25/202410.2%6.8%12.2%
1/30/2024-7.5%-4.9%-8.6%
10/24/2023-9.5%-10.6%-0.2%
7/25/20235.8%7.6%8.3%
4/25/2023-0.1%1.4%16.4%
2/2/2023-2.7%-11.8%-11.7%
10/25/2022-9.1%-13.4%-5.8%
7/26/20227.7%9.6%8.3%
4/26/2022-3.7%-1.1%-10.8%
2/1/20227.5%1.3%-2.7%
10/26/20215.0%4.4%4.9%
7/27/20213.2%2.8%7.7%
4/27/20213.0%0.7%3.9%
2/2/20217.3%8.1%6.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131412
# Negative11911
Median Positive5.0%3.4%8.0%
Median Negative-7.1%-6.6%-8.6%
Max Positive10.2%13.7%16.4%
Max Negative-12.6%-13.4%-16.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202301/31/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/03/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/05/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202301/31/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/03/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202204/27/202210-Q
12/31/202102/02/202210-K
09/30/202110/27/202110-Q
06/30/202107/28/202110-Q
03/31/202104/28/202110-Q
12/31/202002/03/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201902/04/202010-K

Insider Activity

Updated 10/30/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Arnold, Frances DirectSell10302026284.008223,2885,440,588Form
2Arnold, Frances DirectSell10022026340.458328,2576,494,424Form
3Arnold, Frances DirectSell8312026337.718227,6926,414,801Form
4Saraci, MarsidaVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell7292026333.20449149,6079,125,015Form
5Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell7012026349.298,9983,142,91626,298,079Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Arnold, Frances DirectSell10302026284.008223,2885,440,588Form
2Arnold, Frances DirectSell10022026340.458328,2576,494,424Form
3Arnold, Frances DirectSell8312026337.718227,6926,414,801Form
4Saraci, MarsidaVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell7292026333.20449149,6079,125,015Form
5Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell7012026349.298,9983,142,91626,298,079Form
6Arnold, Frances DirectSell6302026351.2811239,3436,615,656Form
7Saraci, MarsidaVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell6292026341.72449153,4329,345,359Form
8Hennessy, John L TrustSell6172026368.631,050387,063545,944Form
9Arnold, Frances DirectSell6012026381.0010238,8627,132,701Form
10Hennessy, John L TrustSell5192026393.261,050412,920995,333Form
11Arnold, Frances DirectSell5012026371.0010237,8426,908,391Form
12Hennessy, John L TrustSell4172026331.651,050348,2321,187,638Form
13O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4032026289.63617178,7022,923,236Form
14Arnold, Frances DirectSell3312026275.1910228,0695,040,380Form
15Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell3312026275.898,9932,481,11714,293,529Form
16Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3182026307.8932,50010,006,385505,571,844Form
17Hennessy, John L TrustSell3182026303.411,050318,5791,405,084Form
18Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell3062026303.3832,5009,859,694508,019,980Form
19O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell3042026298.00955284,5902,955,564Form
20Arnold, Frances DirectSell3042026302.9911233,9355,580,470Form
21Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell2192026301.4547,57414,341,4143,987,344Form
22Hennessy, John L TrustSell2172026306.73600184,0376,325,958Form
23Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell2062026335.1832,50010,893,259730,475,777Form
24O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell2032026336.55933314,0013,337,230Form
25Arnold, Frances DirectSell1302026340.0010234,6806,224,380Form
26Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell1232026327.3032,50010,637,368723,953,713Form
27Hennessy, John L TrustSell1152026337.52600202,5147,163,589Form
28Arnold, Frances DirectSell12312025313.4510231,9725,706,357Form
29Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell12302025314.8917,8295,614,09513,531,264Form
30Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell12172025299.8032,5009,743,373671,429,024Form
31Hennessy, John L TrustSell12172025308.19600184,9151,206,876Form
32O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell12172025312.302,778867,5692,798,833Form
33Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell12052025319.5032,50010,383,861725,949,752Form
34O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell12022025317.00954302,4183,721,580Form
35Arnold, Frances DirectSell12022025317.6610232,4015,750,917Form
36Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell11212025296.6432,5009,640,679683,633,620Form
37O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11182025288.262,778800,7773,383,845Form
38Hennessy, John L TrustSell11172025280.06600168,0341,264,737Form
39Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell11072025283.4832,5009,212,980662,517,872Form
40O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11042025282.33954269,3434,098,585Form
41Arnold, Frances DirectSell11032025291.8011232,6825,253,567Form
42O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell10172025250.052,778694,6513,629,789Form
43Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell10172025250.1532,5008,129,735592,750,010Form
44Hennessy, John L TrustSell10152025242.92600145,7541,242,797Form
45O'Toole, Amie ThuenerVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell10022025241.20953229,8644,171,313Form
46Pichai, SundarChief Executive OfficerDirectSell10012025243.4132,5007,910,743584,693,703Form
47Walker, John KentPresident, Global Affairs, CLOArete Trust, John Kent Walker and Diana Ruth Walsh, TrusteesSell10012025247.4217,8164,408,12210,635,560Form
48Arnold, Frances DirectSell9302025243.1310325,0424,202,259Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 1, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Himalaya Capital Management LLC$1.4 Bil44.8%14Hold13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$425.3 Mil37.5%12ADD +14.6%13F
Provident Trust Co$1.6 Bil33.5%22TRIM -13.3%13F
Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC$69.6 Mil26.8%117Hold13F
Founders Capital Management, LLC$158.7 Mil26.1%74Hold13F
Venator Management LLC$104.9 Mil25.2%28Hold13F
Saybrook Capital /NC$93.6 Mil25.2%42Hold13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$150.8 Mil24.2%15TRIM -8.2%13F
Tikvah Management LLC$77.6 Mil24.1%21Hold13F
ArchPoint Investors$96.9 Mil23.1%78Hold13F
Violich Capital Management, Inc.$190.9 Mil22.3%118Hold13F
SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd$402.6 Mil21.9%6ADD +7.7%13F
Laura & John Arnold Foundation$93.2 Mil21.7%4TRIM -50.1%13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$840.1 Mil21.7%35ADD +8.6%13F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$126.8 Mil21.4%10TRIM -65.1%13F
Bourne Lent Asset Management Inc$57.4 Mil21.1%63Hold13F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$897.0 Mil20.5%40TRIM -30.9%13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$261.4 Mil20.1%11Hold13F
Fullerton Fund Management Co Ltd.$237.8 Mil19.0%125TRIM -30.6%13F
Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A.$50.1 Mil18.7%10Hold13F
McMillan Office, Inc.$146.0 Mil18.7%500Hold13F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$179.7 Mil18.0%32Hold13F
Rokos Capital Management LLP$955.2 Mil17.0%127TRIM -19.0%13F
Nellore Capital Management LLC$130.2 Mil16.6%11New13F
Aljian Capital Management, LLC$80.6 Mil16.6%131Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Scge Management, L.P.$461.0 Mil14.0%21New13F
SurgoCap Partners LP$427.1 Mil14.3%14New13F
Nellore Capital Management LLC$130.2 Mil16.6%11New13F
Southeast Asset Advisors, LLC$127.8 Mil14.0%217New13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$109.4 Mil13.3%23New13F
Trybe Capital Management LP$71.7 Mil16.2%6New13F
Pinpoint Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.$66.9 Mil15.7%144New13F
Jupiter Wealth Management LLC$39.7 Mil15.7%90New13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$425.3 Mil37.5%12ADD +14.6%13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$840.1 Mil21.7%35ADD +8.6%13F
SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd$402.6 Mil21.9%6ADD +7.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Troy Asset Management Ltd$588.3 Mil15.2%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Himension Capital (Singapore) PTE. LTD.$400.8 Mil24.7%95ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Trivest Advisors Ltd$355.7 Mil16.2%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Laurion Capital Management LP$241.4 Mil16.5%230ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd$225.8 Mil34.6%5ExitedDec 31, 202513F
DV Trading LLC$203.3 Mil17.6%995ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Anatole Investment Management Ltd$110.1 Mil18.4%15ExitedDec 31, 202513F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$98.2 Mil16.1%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co$79.1 Mil16.0%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Soros Capital Management LLC$77.3 Mil20.3%57ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Ariose Capital Management Ltd$68.7 Mil23.0%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$126.8 Mil21.4%10TRIM -65.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Laura & John Arnold Foundation$93.2 Mil21.7%4TRIM -50.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Parker Investment Management, LLC$106.1 Mil16.1%37TRIM -30.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$897.0 Mil20.5%40TRIM -30.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Fullerton Fund Management Co Ltd.$237.8 Mil19.0%125TRIM -30.6%Mar 31, 202613F
Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd.$144.5 Mil13.9%27TRIM -22.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Rokos Capital Management LLP$955.2 Mil17.0%127TRIM -19.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Lindsell Train Ltd$490.2 Mil15.6%27TRIM -18.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Cryder Capital Partners LLP$206.6 Mil13.5%10TRIM -17.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Manitou Investment Management Ltd.$68.1 Mil13.5%52TRIM -16.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Gobi Capital LLC$247.9 Mil14.5%10TRIM -15.9%Mar 31, 202613F
East Coast Asset Management, LLC.$49.2 Mil16.2%68TRIM -15.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Penn Davis Mcfarland Inc$155.2 Mil15.2%75TRIM -14.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Monolith Management Ltd$40.2 Mil15.7%31TRIM -13.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Tiger Global Management LLC$3.1 Bil13.4%54Hold13F
Provident Trust Co$1.6 Bil33.5%22TRIM -13.3%13F
Himalaya Capital Management LLC$1.4 Bil44.8%14Hold13F
Rokos Capital Management LLP$955.2 Mil17.0%127TRIM -19.0%13F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$897.0 Mil20.5%40TRIM -30.9%13F
Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P.$881.6 Mil14.6%50TRIM -7.5%13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$840.1 Mil21.7%35ADD +8.6%13F
Lindsell Train Ltd$490.2 Mil15.6%27TRIM -18.4%13F
Scge Management, L.P.$461.0 Mil14.0%21New13F
SurgoCap Partners LP$427.1 Mil14.3%14New13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$425.3 Mil37.5%12ADD +14.6%13F
SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd$402.6 Mil21.9%6ADD +7.7%13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$261.4 Mil20.1%11Hold13F
Gobi Capital LLC$247.9 Mil14.5%10TRIM -15.9%13F
Fullerton Fund Management Co Ltd.$237.8 Mil19.0%125TRIM -30.6%13F
Cryder Capital Partners LLP$206.6 Mil13.5%10TRIM -17.7%13F
Violich Capital Management, Inc.$190.9 Mil22.3%118Hold13F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$179.7 Mil18.0%32Hold13F
Founders Capital Management, LLC$158.7 Mil26.1%74Hold13F
Penn Davis Mcfarland Inc$155.2 Mil15.2%75TRIM -14.7%13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$150.8 Mil24.2%15TRIM -8.2%13F
McMillan Office, Inc.$146.0 Mil18.7%500Hold13F
Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd.$144.5 Mil13.9%27TRIM -22.0%13F
Nellore Capital Management LLC$130.2 Mil16.6%11New13F
Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD.$129.1 Mil13.5%24TRIM -9.5%13F

GOOGL Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Alphabet's AI pivot is showing powerful results, with Google Cloud revenue growth accelerating to 103% and a $561 billion backlog confirming future demand. While the required capital investment of over $195 billion in 2026 pressures near-term cash flow, the overwhelming demand signals this spending is capturing a durable, long-term revenue stream, creating a compelling entry point after the recent stock decline.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Tech Platform

(User/Customer Base) x (Engagement/Usage) x (Monetization Rate per Unit) The high-margin advertising business within Google Services, which benefits from immense scale and established infrastructure.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Is the AI Investment Cycle Creating a Second, Dominant Growth Engine?

Evidence suggests yes. The company is successfully monetizing its massive AI infrastructure buildout, creating a hyper-growth cloud business alongside a reinvigorated search franchise.

Mechanism: Explosive Cloud growth (103% in Q3) and a $561 billion backlog convert to revenue, while AI-driven Search engagement (highest query growth in 5 years) expands the core advertising base.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 103% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
  • The Google Cloud backlog of future contracted revenue reached $561 billion.
  • Core Search is experiencing its highest year-over-year query growth rate in 5 years.
  • Google Cloud's operating margin expanded to 36.2% in Q3 2026.
  • The company has surpassed 150 million YouTube Music and Premium subscribers.
PRIMARY RISK
Capital Intensity Destroys Shareholder Returns

The risk is that unprecedented capital spending, guided at $195 billion to $205 billion for 2026 and rising 'significantly' in 2027, fails to generate adequate returns, leading to sustained negative free cash flow and value destruction.

Mechanism: A sequential stall or decline in the Google Cloud backlog would signal that demand is not keeping pace with investment.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Full-year 2026 capital expenditure is guided to be $195 billion to $205 billion.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to 'increase significantly' in 2027.
  • The company reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in Q3 2026.
  • Management guided to near-term Cloud margin headwinds from using third-party capacity.
  • Operating expenses grew 24.7% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 22.2%.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Google Cloud Revenue Growth103% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - AcceleratingGoogle Cloud's revenue growth has shown significant and consistent acceleration over the past three quarters. Management attributes this to strong demand for its entire AI portfolio, including infrastructure, solutions, and core GCP services, with sales of TPU systems also being a meaningful contributor.
Google Cloud Backlog$560.8 billion as of September 30, 2026 - AcceleratingThe backlog, representing future contracted revenue, has grown substantially each quarter in 2026. Management notes the majority of the backlog relates to typical GCP contracts, indicating broad-based demand beyond one-off hardware sales. The company expects to recognize just over 55% of the backlog as revenue over the next 24 months.
Query GrowthHighest year-over-year query growth rate in the last 5 years (Q3 2026)Measures user engagement with the core Search product. Strong growth indicates that AI-powered features are increasing usage, which is the foundation for the advertising business.
YouTube Music and Premium Subscribers150 million (including trials) (Q3 2026)Tracks the growth of the consumer subscription business, a key source of recurring, non-advertising revenue.
Core Investment Debate

AI Investment: Profitable Growth Engine or Cash-Burning Arms Race?

BULL VIEW

Bulls see the massive spending as necessary to capture a generational AI opportunity, validated by the $561 billion Cloud backlog and management's expectation for attractive returns on investment.

CORE TENSION

Can the leading indicator of a $561 billion Cloud backlog overcome the lagging indicator of a negative $9.1 billion quarterly free cash flow?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. The backlog is a forward-looking, multi-year commitment from customers, while the negative cash flow is a direct, temporary result of building capacity to serve that demand.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see a company destroying value, pointing to Q3's negative $9.1 billion free cash flow and margin headwinds as proof that the cost of AI growth is uneconomical.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
no later than December 1, 2026
Litigation Development
Watch: Court filings and press releases related to the lead plaintiff appointment and subsequent stages of the class action lawsuit.
no later than December 1, 2026
Securities Lawsuit Deadline
Watch: A securities class action lawsuit has a lead plaintiff deadline of December 1, 2026.
1/18/2027
Netflix Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings on January 18, 2027.
1/26/2027
Competitive AI Narrative
Watch: Azure and AWS revenue growth rates, AI service adoption metrics, and capital spending plans from Microsoft and Amazon.
1/27/2027
Apple Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report earnings on January 27, 2027.
2/2/2027
Cloud Margin Compression
Watch: Google Cloud operating margin in the Q4 report and any revision to the margin outlook for 2027.
2/2/2027
Capital Expenditure Shock
Watch: The magnitude of the 2027 CapEx guidance provided on the Q4 earnings call and the justification for it.
2/2/2027
Alphabet Q4 Earnings
Watch: Alphabet is scheduled to report its next earnings on February 2, 2027.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-10-28
Severe Q3 Earnings Reaction
Details: Following the Q3 earnings call on October 28, 2026, the stock had a two-day negative reaction of -11.0%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500.
-11.5%
$320.58 -> $283.82
2026-10-09
Securities Lawsuit Filed
Details: A law firm announced a class action lawsuit on behalf of securities purchasers between May 19, 2026 and July 16, 2026, alleging misleading statements about Gemini 3.5 Pro.
+1.3%
$348.29 -> $352.72
2026-08-26
Analyst Reaffirms Price Target
Details: A Wall Street analyst at Citizens expected the stock to rally to a new all-time high over the next 12 months, according to a news report.
-1.8%
$346.74 -> $340.43
2026-07-22
Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock had a two-day negative reaction of -8.0% around the Q2 earnings call on July 22, 2026, underperforming the S&P 500's -1.0% move.
-8.5%
$346.93 -> $317.49
2026-06-18
Berkshire Hathaway Increases Stake
Details: News reports in June indicated that Berkshire Hathaway nearly tripled its Alphabet stake to about 57.8 million shares worth $16.6 billion, and invested an additional $10 billion via a private purchase.
-3.9%
$363.56 -> $349.46
2026-05-03
Data Center Power Concerns
Details: A data center expert warned in a news report that gigawatt-scale AI buildouts could potentially trigger rolling blackouts, highlighting infrastructure strain from the industry's expansion.
-0.4%
$384.32 -> $382.78
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: GOOGL trades at roughly 37% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI Platform

Microsoft leverages its deep incumbency in enterprise software as a powerful distribution channel for its integrated Azure cloud and AI platform, creating high switching costs for corporate customers.

Core Thesis: The company is positioned to capture a large share of enterprise AI budgets through its integrated software and cloud ecosystem.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Cloud Infrastructure Leader

Amazon.com's AWS combines its first-mover scale in cloud infrastructure with a strong focus on price-performance, appealing to customers prioritizing cost-effective compute for building AI applications.

Core Thesis: The company's scale and focus on efficient infrastructure should allow it to maintain a leading share of the foundational cloud market.
How Is The Market Pricing GOOGL?

Alphabet is an AI infrastructure company monetizing its massive compute investments and frontier models through a vast consumer ecosystem and a rapidly accelerating enterprise cloud business.

The company is in a period of intense capital investment to build out the infrastructure for the AI era. This investment is fueling record growth in its Google Cloud segment, which is winning large enterprise deals for its integrated AI stack. Simultaneously, these AI investments are reinvigorating growth in the core Search business by driving the highest query growth in five years, creating a dual-engine growth story.

What will confirm the thesis

Continued acceleration in Google Cloud revenue and backlog, evidence of successful monetization of new AI features in Search, and sustained high query growth.

What will damage the thesis

A deceleration in Cloud growth, margin compression from third-party capacity costs, or signs that massive CapEx is not translating into commensurate revenue growth or market share gains.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term stock price fluctuations, class-action lawsuits mentioned in October news reports that often follow stock drops, and competitor model announcements that do not materially impact customer adoption trends.

Repricing Catalyst

The market's re-evaluation of Alphabet's competitive position in AI. After a period where the stock was priced 'like a loser' in the AI race according to an October news report, the recent strong acceleration in Cloud growth and AI-driven query growth is forcing a reassessment of its leadership and monetization capabilities.

What GOOGL Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
Google Services
$376.3B TTM (80% of Total) · 42% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells advertising services to millions of businesses, and sells consumer subscriptions, apps, in-app purchases, and hardware devices to the general public. Core products include Google Search, YouTube ads, Android, Chrome, and Pixel devices.

Who Pays & How

Advertisers pay to connect with users and drive measurable results through performance and brand advertising. Consumers pay for premium content experiences (YouTube Premium), enhanced cloud storage and AI features (Google One), and integrated hardware (Pixel).

Advertising is priced on a performance basis (e.g., cost-per-click) or brand basis (e.g., cost-per-impression). Subscriptions are on a recurring fee model. Hardware is sold via direct-to-consumer and retail channels.
Competition
Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Apple
Competitors offer rival search engines, online advertising platforms, digital content providers, and consumer hardware with proprietary platforms.
The company's moat is its massive user base across 15 products with over half a billion users each, its deep AI integration, and its extensive advertising technology and data ecosystem.
Google Cloud
$93.2B TTM (20% of Total) · 34% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells enterprise-grade cloud services, including infrastructure (GCP), collaboration tools (Google Workspace), and AI platforms (Gemini Enterprise), to businesses of all sizes.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises pay for cloud services to migrate and modernize their IT systems, build and deploy applications, analyze data, and leverage AI. Customers choose Google Cloud for its AI-optimized infrastructure, including custom TPUs, and its integrated AI portfolio.

Revenue is generated primarily from consumption-based fees for infrastructure and platform services, and per-seat subscriptions for collaboration tools like Google Workspace. The company also now engages in direct sales of its TPU systems.
Competition
Microsoft, Amazon.com
Competitors are established providers of enterprise cloud services with significant market share and their own AI offerings.
The company's moat is its integrated, full-stack AI portfolio, from custom silicon (TPUs) and frontier models (Gemini) to data, security, and agent platforms, which are designed to work together.
Other Bets
$1.5B TTM (0% of Total) · -623% Margin
What It Is

This segment comprises a portfolio of early-stage businesses at various stages of development, including autonomous driving technology (Waymo) and life sciences research (Isomorphic Labs).

Who Pays & How

Customers pay for services such as fully autonomous, paid ride-hailing services from Waymo. Revenue is also generated from the sale of internet services.

Transactional fees for services like autonomous rides and sales of services like internet access.
Competition
These businesses are focused on 'moonshots' and breakthrough technologies, leveraging Alphabet's long-term investment horizon and deep R&D capabilities.
GOOGL Evolution: Price Return by Era
Pre-2021 · Advertising Dominance
+68%
The company's revenue was overwhelmingly generated by its Google Services segment, primarily from advertising on Google Search and YouTube. Google Cloud was a small but growing part of the business, and Other Bets were experimental projects with minimal revenue.
2021-2025 · The Cloud Acceleration
+265%
This period of growth from 2021 marked Cloud's emergence as a second major growth engine for the company, transitioning from a consistent loss-leader to a profitable segment.
2026-Present · The AI Investment Cycle
-10%
Driven by the generative AI boom, the company entered an unprecedented capital investment cycle to build out its AI infrastructure. This investment fueled explosive growth in Google Cloud, which grew 103% in Q3 2026, and began to reinvigorate the core Search business with the highest query growth in five years.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-11 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Downtrend · Death Cross ▾
2 Momentum Deteriorating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Expanded ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/31/2026