Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (7/21/2026): $87.6 | Market Cap: $21.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (7/21/2026): $87.6Market Cap: $21.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 13% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 5.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Key risksEXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 5.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Key risksEXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Expand Energy (EXE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Natural Gas Prices Impacting Revenue Expectations.
Expand Energy's stock movement since the end of fiscal Q1 2026 has been significantly influenced by a decline in natural gas prices. Henry Hub natural gas prices dropped below $3/MMBtu during fiscal Q2 2026, a substantial decrease from a peak of $6.5/MMBtu earlier in the year. As a major natural gas producer, this lower pricing environment directly impacted the company's revenue outlook for the quarter.
2. Company Guidance for Weaker Fiscal Q2 2026 Results and Production Curtailments.
Expand Energy's management warned of potential "curtailments" in fiscal Q2 2026 production due to the decreased natural gas prices. Analysts, such as one on May 25, 2026, predicted that Expand Energy's fiscal Q2 2026 results would be weaker than fiscal Q1, with estimated revenue of approximately $1.98-2.01 billion and EPS of $1.12-1.15, largely due to lower gas prices.
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Expand Energy (EXE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Natural Gas Prices Impacting Revenue Expectations.
Expand Energy's stock movement since the end of fiscal Q1 2026 has been significantly influenced by a decline in natural gas prices. Henry Hub natural gas prices dropped below $3/MMBtu during fiscal Q2 2026, a substantial decrease from a peak of $6.5/MMBtu earlier in the year. As a major natural gas producer, this lower pricing environment directly impacted the company's revenue outlook for the quarter.
2. Company Guidance for Weaker Fiscal Q2 2026 Results and Production Curtailments.
Expand Energy's management warned of potential "curtailments" in fiscal Q2 2026 production due to the decreased natural gas prices. Analysts, such as one on May 25, 2026, predicted that Expand Energy's fiscal Q2 2026 results would be weaker than fiscal Q1, with estimated revenue of approximately $1.98-2.01 billion and EPS of $1.12-1.15, largely due to lower gas prices.
3. Broader Energy Sector Weakness.
The overall energy sector (XLE) experienced a significant downturn, slipping more than 9% in fiscal Q2 2026. This sector-wide decline was attributed to various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including volatility in oil markets due to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which initially drove prices up but later saw Brent and WTI crude fall below $80 as peace prospects improved. Damage to LNG infrastructure and OPEC+ policy shifts also contributed to market uncertainty and volatility.
4. Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets.
During fiscal Q2 2026, several Wall Street analysts revised their ratings and price targets for Expand Energy, contributing to negative sentiment. Notably, Barclays downgraded Expand Energy from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating on May 26, 2026, simultaneously lowering its price target from $127 to $110, citing a weaker gas price outlook and fewer visible near-term catalysts. Morgan Stanley also trimmed its price target in late June 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.3% change in EXE stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.12 | 86.95 | -20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,189 | 14,391 | 18.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 22.4% | 50.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 6.5 | -54.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 238 | 240 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXE | -20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.1% | -19.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | -5.4% | 54.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.3% change in EXE stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.10 | 86.95 | -20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,848 | 14,391 | 32.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 22.4% | 180.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.0 | 6.5 | -78.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 238 | 240 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXE | -20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.1% | -12.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 30.4% | 34.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.3% change in EXE stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.31 | 86.95 | -23.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,344 | 14,391 | 169.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.0 | 1.4 | -70.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 234 | 240 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXE | -23.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.1% | 1.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 39.9% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.2% change in EXE stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 342.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.83 | 86.95 | 13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,822 | 14,391 | 4.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.3% | 22.4% | -56.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 1.5 | 6.5 | 342.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 135 | 240 | -43.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXE | 13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.3% | 26.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 56.0% | 48.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXE Return | 46% | 62% | -15% | 33% | 14% | -19% | 149% |
| Peers Return | 148% | 59% | -8% | 35% | 11% | -5% | 417% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXE Win Rate | 64% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 62% | 47% | 53% | 53% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXE Max Drawdown | - | -28% | -23% | -23% | -23% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -39% | -29% | -32% | -31% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, AR, DVN, CRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Expand Energy's stock fell -10.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.9% gain to breakeven.
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In The Past
Expand Energy's stock fell -10.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Expand Energy (EXE)
Expand Energy (symbol: EXE) is America's premier natural gas company, established in 2024 through the combination of Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company. As the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., the company's core business revolves around the exploration, production, and delivery of natural gas, aiming to fuel a more affordable, reliable, and lower-carbon future.
The company's main product is natural gas, which it provides to global energy markets. Expand Energy operates with the mission of addressing the global energy crisis by delivering critical energy to areas in need, positioning natural gas as an essential solution for human flourishing due to its affordability, reliability, and lower carbon footprint compared to other traditional energy sources.
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- The ExxonMobil of natural gas.
- America's largest natural gas producer, similar to Chevron's role in oil.
- The Amazon of natural gas supply.
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- Natural Gas: Expand Energy's primary product is the production and delivery of natural gas, serving as a crucial energy source for various markets.
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Expand Energy (symbol: EXE), as America's largest natural gas producer, sells its natural gas primarily to other companies rather than directly to individual consumers. While specific customer names and their public symbols are typically not disclosed for commodity producers of this scale due to the breadth of their customer base and proprietary agreements, its major customers would broadly fall into the following categories:
- Electric Power Generators (Utilities): These are companies that operate natural gas-fired power plants to produce electricity for homes and businesses across the country. They represent a significant portion of natural gas demand, purchasing large volumes for electricity generation.
- Local Distribution Companies (LDCs): These are regulated utilities or companies responsible for transporting and delivering natural gas through local pipeline networks to residential, commercial, and industrial end-users within specific geographic areas. Expand Energy would sell gas to these LDCs for distribution.
- Industrial Users: A wide range of industrial facilities, including chemical plants, manufacturers, and refineries, utilize natural gas as a fuel for their operations, a feedstock for various products, or for process heat. These industrial consumers represent a substantial market for natural gas.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exporters: These companies operate LNG liquefaction terminals. They purchase natural gas from producers like Expand Energy, process it into liquid form, and then ship it to international markets, playing a crucial role in global energy supply.
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Nick Dell'Osso, President and Chief Executive Officer
Nick Dell'Osso serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Expand Energy. Before this role, he was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Chesapeake Energy Corporation, a position he began in October 2021. He was also a member of Chesapeake's Board of Directors. Dell'Osso has been noted for his comments on the natural gas market and his vision for the combined company.
Mohit Singh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mohit Singh is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Expand Energy. Previously, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Chesapeake Energy Corporation since 2021. Prior to his time at Chesapeake, Mr. Singh was part of the leadership team at BPX Energy for six years.
Chris Lacy, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Chris Lacy holds the position of Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Expand Energy. He previously served as the Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary at Southwestern Energy Company, where he had been since 2014, accumulating nearly 20 years of legal experience.
Josh Viets, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Josh Viets is the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Expand Energy. He was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Chesapeake Energy Corporation in 2022. Before joining Chesapeake, Mr. Viets was the Vice President of the Delaware operation in the Permian Basin Business Unit for ConocoPhillips.
John Christ, Vice President – Chief Information Officer
John Christ was named Vice President – Chief Information Officer of Expand Energy in October 2024. His responsibilities include developing and implementing the company's information technology strategy, utilizing emerging technologies to enhance operational performance, and supporting the integration of acquired companies.
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Here are the key risks to Expand Energy's business:
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: As the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., Expand Energy's financial performance is highly susceptible to fluctuations in natural gas prices. These prices are inherently volatile, influenced by a complex interplay of global supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, and broader economic conditions. Sudden and unpredictable swings in natural gas prices can directly impact the company's revenues, cash flow, and overall profitability.
- Regulatory and Environmental Pressures Amidst Energy Transition: Despite natural gas being positioned as a lower-carbon alternative, Expand Energy faces increasing regulatory and environmental scrutiny. The global push for decarbonization and cleaner energy sources leads to evolving environmental standards, potential carbon taxes, and stricter emission limits, which can increase operational costs and potentially reduce long-term demand for natural gas. Key concerns include methane emissions from production and transportation, water contamination risks associated with hydraulic fracturing, and regulations impacting infrastructure development.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Disruptions: The natural gas market is significantly affected by geopolitical events and international relations. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and conflicts can disrupt global energy supply chains, impacting the availability and pricing of natural gas. For a large producer like Expand Energy, such events can affect export markets, infrastructure projects, and overall market stability, leading to unpredictable price spikes or demand shifts.
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Expand Energy's primary product is natural gas, including natural gas liquids, with operations concentrated in the United States. The company is also involved in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market through its "LNG Ready" capabilities.
Addressable Markets for Expand Energy's Main Products or Services:
- U.S. Natural Gas Market: The addressable market for natural gas in the U.S. is projected to reach approximately $601.8 billion by 2032, growing from an estimated $473.4 billion in 2025.
- Global Natural Gas Market: The global natural gas market was valued at approximately $1.2 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach around $1.9 trillion by 2030. Another estimate indicates the global natural gas market is expected to reach $2108.1 billion by 2030.
- Global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Market: The global liquefied natural gas market, which Expand Energy contributes to, was valued at an estimated $122.60 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $226.97 billion by 2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Expand Energy (symbol: EXE) over the next 2-3 years:
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Increased Sales Volume from Global Energy Demand: Expand Energy, as America’s largest natural gas producer, is positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for affordable, reliable, and lower-carbon energy. Growth in sales volume to existing and new markets, driven by the fundamental need for energy and natural gas’s role as a bridge fuel, is expected to be a significant revenue driver.
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Favorable Natural Gas Price Environment: As a major producer of natural gas, Expand Energy’s revenue growth will be heavily influenced by sustained or increasing natural gas commodity prices. A strong pricing environment, driven by global supply and demand dynamics, would directly translate into higher revenues.
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Strategic Market Penetration and Expansion: Leveraging its scale and combined assets from the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, Expand Energy is anticipated to expand its reach. This could involve deeper penetration into existing domestic markets or strategic entry into new international markets identified as "markets in need," thereby increasing its customer base and sales channels.
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Investment in and Monetization of Lower-Carbon Natural Gas Solutions: Given the company's commitment to a "lower carbon future," future revenue growth is expected from investments in and the subsequent commercialization of technologies and practices that further reduce the carbon footprint of natural gas production. This could include carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects, or offering differentiated "responsibly sourced gas" that commands a premium.
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Share Repurchases
- Expand Energy authorized a new share buyback program of $1 billion in Q3 2024.
- The company returned $865 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks during 2025.
- As of February 18, 2026, Expand Energy completed the repurchase of 851,661 shares for $99.99 million under the buyback announced on October 29, 2024.
Share Issuance
- On October 1, 2024, Expand Energy issued approximately 95.7 million shares of its common stock to Southwestern Energy Company shareholders in connection with their merger, valued at approximately $7.9 billion.
Inbound Investments
- Expand Energy attracted fresh institutional money and insider share purchases in recent months.
- Institutional investors, including Mitsubishi UFJ, Intech Investment Management, and Sierra Summit Advisors, continued building positions in Q3 (likely 2025).
Outbound Investments
- Expand Energy acquired approximately 82,500 net acres in Q3 2025.
- The company acquired approximately 7,500 acres of undeveloped Core Marcellus for $57 million during Q3 2025.
- Expand Energy established a 75,000+ net-acre position in Western Haynesville through targeted leasing and an undeveloped leasehold acquisition, including cash consideration of approximately $117 million in the second half of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Expand Energy's full-year 2025 capital expenditure guidance was reduced to $2.85 billion, inclusive of approximately $250 million to build productive capacity.
- For 2026, Expand Energy expects approximately $2.85 billion of capital investment, including ~$75 million for Western Haynesville appraisal spend.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is drilling and completion activities across its Haynesville, Northeast Appalachia, and Southwest Appalachia assets, aiming to deliver 7.5 Bcf per day of production in 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Expand Energy Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 10% YTD) [9/29/2025] | 09/30/2025 | |
| Time To Buy Expand Energy Stock? | 08/09/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Expand Energy (EXE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 08/08/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,518 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,130 |
| FCF LTM | 2,035 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,147 |
| CFO LTM | 3,957 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,337 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 212.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 95.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | 10,322 | 3,781 | 3,842 | 10,258 | 1,685 |
| Natural gas liquids (NGL) | 866 | 293 | 277 | 454 | 240 |
| Losses on derivatives | 550 | -38 | 1,728 | -2,680 | 596 |
| Oil | 451 | 185 | 1,928 | 3,411 | 2,689 |
| Total | 12,189 | 4,221 | 7,775 | 11,443 | 5,210 |
| $ Mil | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas, oil and Natural gas liquids (NGL) | 11,249 | ||||
| Marketing | 1,118 | ||||
| Other | 1,059 | 4,325 | |||
| Intercompany Eliminations | -398 | -311 | -891 | -3,757 | -2,328 |
| Exploration and Production | 11,819 | 35,381 | 35,341 | 37,004 | |
| Marketing,Gathering and Compression | 1,524 | 1,978 | 2,430 | 2,291 | |
| Other Operations | 4,283 | 5,750 | 2,529 | ||
| Oilfield Services | 2,018 | 2,115 | |||
| Total | 13,028 | 17,357 | 40,751 | 41,782 | 41,611 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $86.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 20.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $91.34 | $102.36 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.8% | -15.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.3% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | -21.40 | 0.32 |
| Upside Capture | -56.21 | -22.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -11.4% | 0.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.10 | -0.24 | -0.32 | -0.24 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Up Beta | -0.70 | -0.77 | -0.53 | -0.09 | -0.14 | 0.33 |
| Down Beta | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.61 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | 8% | -60% | -55% | -46% | -10% | 13% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 15 | 22 | 56 | 115 | 377 |
| Down Capture | 29% | -4% | -23% | -41% | 17% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 26 | 41 | 67 | 133 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | -17.1% | 31.2% | -0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 37.1% | 20.9% | 1.40 | 38.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.2% | 12.6% | 1.12 | 1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.6% | 28.0% | 0.63 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.7% | 19.0% | 1.24 | 25.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 14.0% | 0.78 | -0.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.6% | 42.9% | -1.34 | 6.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | 14.9% | 34.9% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.2% | 25.9% | 0.73 | 58.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 32.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 19.5% | 0.34 | 42.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.0% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 11.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | 9.4% | 34.5% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.8% | 29.5% | 0.37 | 57.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 10.9% | 16.1% | 0.55 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 41.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.9% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 9.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 4.2% | 2.9% | -2.9% |
| 2/17/2026 | -3.1% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.6% | 9.0% | 18.2% |
| 7/29/2025 | 4.9% | 1.7% | -2.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | -3.3% | 1.0% | 8.2% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.6% | -0.8% | 7.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 7/29/2024 | -0.4% | -7.1% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.2% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.5% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 15.9% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -9.2% | -6.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 4.2% | 2.9% | -2.9% |
| 2/17/2026 | -3.1% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.6% | 9.0% | 18.2% |
| 7/29/2025 | 4.9% | 1.7% | -2.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | -3.3% | 1.0% | 8.2% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.6% | -0.8% | 7.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 7/29/2024 | -0.4% | -7.1% | -3.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -3.6% | -1.4% | 0.8% |
| 2/20/2024 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2023 | 1.0% | -4.1% | -6.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | -2.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| 5/2/2023 | -3.8% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| 2/21/2023 | 2.1% | 3.5% | -4.0% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | 1.4% | 4.9% | 14.1% |
| 5/4/2022 | 0.6% | -9.2% | 6.8% |
| 2/23/2022 | 3.5% | 15.9% | 29.9% |
| 11/2/2021 | 3.3% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
| 8/10/2021 | 2.6% | -1.3% | 9.9% |
| 5/11/2021 | 0.9% | 4.6% | 14.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.2% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.5% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 15.9% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -9.2% | -6.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2019 | 05/09/2019 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2018 | 02/27/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Production | 7.50 Bil | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.50 Bil for 2026 | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.85 Bil | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.85 Bil for 2026 | ||||
| 2026 Rig Count | 11 | 11.5 | 12 | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Daily Production | 7.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.85 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Debt Reduction | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Dividends | 0.57 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.57 for Q4 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Dividends | 0.57 | ||||||
| 2026 Annual Synergies | 600.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2025 Net Production | 7.15 Bil | ||||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 2.85 Bil | 2.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net Production | 7.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2025 Net Debt Paydown | 500.00 Mil | -50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 88.90 | 1,000 | 88,900 | 7,600,772 | Form |
| 2 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 93.36 | 1,000 | 93,360 | 7,888,733 | Form |
| 3 | Teunissen, Marcel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 92.88 | 2,000 | 185,760 | 1,035,055 | Form |
| 4 | Teunissen, Marcel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 5072026 | 96.43 | 2,000 | 192,860 | 881,756 | Form |
| 5 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 107.50 | 2,000 | 215,000 | 8,976,035 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 88.90 | 1,000 | 88,900 | 7,600,772 | Form |
| 2 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 93.36 | 1,000 | 93,360 | 7,888,733 | Form |
| 3 | Teunissen, Marcel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 6042026 | 92.88 | 2,000 | 185,760 | 1,035,055 | Form |
| 4 | Teunissen, Marcel | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 5072026 | 96.43 | 2,000 | 192,860 | 881,756 | Form |
| 5 | Wichterich, Michael | Interim President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 107.50 | 2,000 | 215,000 | 8,976,035 | Form |
| 6 | Gallagher, Matthew | Direct | Buy | 2192026 | 100.66 | 1,000 | 100,660 | 1,803,525 | Form | |
| 7 | Viets, Joshua J | EVP & COO | Direct | Buy | 8182025 | 92.16 | 2,000 | 184,320 | 5,684,060 | Form |
| 8 | Dell'Osso, Domenic J JR | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 8182025 | 95.86 | 2,500 | 239,650 | 15,981,300 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 21, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glendon Capital Management LP | $221.6 Mil | 27.5% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $27.4 Mil | 7.7% | 31 | ADD +96.2% | 13F |
| Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | $89.3 Mil | 6.2% | 27 | ADD +19.4% | 13F |
| Pennant Investors, LP | $21.5 Mil | 6.0% | 17 | TRIM -9.3% | 13F |
| Gemsstock Ltd. | $48.1 Mil | 5.1% | 28 | ADD +9.3% | 13F |
| Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP | $21.5 Mil | 4.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Alta Fundamental Advisers LLC | $9.1 Mil | 3.6% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Fearnley Asset Management AS | $8.7 Mil | 2.8% | 19 | ADD +420.3% | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $13.6 Mil | 2.8% | 28 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| RR Advisors, LLC | $7.7 Mil | 2.1% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 1.3% | 43 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $18.9 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $14.7 Mil | 0.2% | 44 | TRIM -91.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP | $21.5 Mil | 4.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Fearnley Asset Management AS | $8.7 Mil | 2.8% | 19 | ADD +420.3% | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $27.4 Mil | 7.7% | 31 | ADD +96.2% | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 1.3% | 43 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | $89.3 Mil | 6.2% | 27 | ADD +19.4% | 13F |
| Gemsstock Ltd. | $48.1 Mil | 5.1% | 28 | ADD +9.3% | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $13.6 Mil | 2.8% | 28 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $203.2 Mil | 6.3% | 13 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $145.6 Mil | 3.2% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ninepoint Partners LP | $88.3 Mil | 10.5% | 158 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $38.1 Mil | 3.1% | 26 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.1% | 36 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| NYL Investors LLC | $18.8 Mil | 6.4% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kettle Hill Capital Management, LLC | $5.9 Mil | 1.3% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $5.2 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $14.7 Mil | 0.2% | 44 | TRIM -91.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Pennant Investors, LP | $21.5 Mil | 6.0% | 17 | TRIM -9.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glendon Capital Management LP | $221.6 Mil | 27.5% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | $89.3 Mil | 6.2% | 27 | ADD +19.4% | 13F |
| Gemsstock Ltd. | $48.1 Mil | 5.1% | 28 | ADD +9.3% | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $27.4 Mil | 7.7% | 31 | ADD +96.2% | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 1.3% | 43 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Pennant Investors, LP | $21.5 Mil | 6.0% | 17 | TRIM -9.3% | 13F |
| Palo Duro Investment Partners, LP | $21.5 Mil | 4.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $18.9 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $14.7 Mil | 0.2% | 44 | TRIM -91.5% | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $13.6 Mil | 2.8% | 28 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Alta Fundamental Advisers LLC | $9.1 Mil | 3.6% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Fearnley Asset Management AS | $8.7 Mil | 2.8% | 19 | ADD +420.3% | 13F |
| RR Advisors, LLC | $7.7 Mil | 2.1% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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