Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $123.04 | Market Cap: $29.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $123.04Market Cap: $29.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Expand Energy (EXE) experienced a notable 27.6% stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors. The company's strong third-quarter 2025 financial and operational results, strategic agreements, and positive guidance updates were central to this performance. The stock reached an all-time high closing price of $122.89 on December 3, 2025.
1. Expand Energy reported robust financial performance in its Q3 2025 earnings, particularly in cash flow and adjusted EBITDAX, which overshadowed a revenue miss. The company announced net cash provided by operating activities of $1,201 million and an adjusted EBITDAX of $1,082 million. While revenue of $1.85 billion fell short of the estimated $2.49 billion, adjusted net income of $0.97 per diluted share met expectations, and some reports indicated it topped analysts' consensus estimates. This strong underlying profitability and cash generation likely reassured investors.
2. The company increased its full-year 2025 production guidance while simultaneously reducing capital expenditure guidance. Expand Energy raised the midpoint of its full-year 2025 production guidance by 50 MMcfe/d to 7.15 Bcfe/d and lowered the midpoint of its capital expenditures guidance by $75 million to $2.85 billion. This indicates improved capital efficiency and a positive outlook for future production at a lower cost, which is attractive to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXE Return | - | - | 62% | -15% | 33% | 22% | 125% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | -1% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXE Win Rate | - | 70% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXE Max Drawdown | - | - | -2% | -23% | -7% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 671 days | 464 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Expand Energy's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Expand Energy Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 10% YTD) [9/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| Time To Buy Expand Energy Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: VZ, HSY, ROST | Losers: EQT, EXE, CTRA | July 22nd, 2025 | ||
| EXE Stock Down -12% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 10th, 2025 | ||
| How Low Can Expand Energy Stock Go In A Market Crash | July 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Expand Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
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| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
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| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
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| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
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| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |