Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $109.56 | Market Cap: $26.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $109.56Market Cap: $26.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Key risksEXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Key risksEXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Expand Energy (symbol: EXE) stock has experienced significant positive movement in the recent period:
1. Expand Energy reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) significantly beating consensus estimates by 10.2% and topline revenue surging to approximately $3 billion. This performance was driven by a massive increase in sales of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, alongside notable growth in marketing revenues.
2. Analysts have consistently raised price targets and maintained positive ratings for Expand Energy, reflecting strong confidence in the company's outlook. For example, Mizuho increased its price target to $142 in December 2025, and Piper Sandler boosted its target to $138 in November 2025, both maintaining "Outperform" or "Overweight" ratings. The consensus analyst rating is a "Strong Buy," with an average 12-month price target suggesting significant upside potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXE Return | � | � | 62% | -15% | 33% | 10% | � |
| Peers Return | 21% | 136% | 54% | -0% | 15% | 4% | 425% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXE Win Rate | � | 70% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 67% | 63% | 50% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXE Max Drawdown | � | � | -2% | -23% | -7% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -2% | -3% | -18% | -15% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, CTRA, RRC, AR, DVN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 671 days | 464 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Expand Energy's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Expand Energy Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 10% YTD) [9/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| Time To Buy Expand Energy Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: VZ, HSY, ROST | Losers: EQT, EXE, CTRA | July 22nd, 2025 | ||
| EXE Stock Down -12% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 10th, 2025 | ||
| How Low Can Expand Energy Stock Go In A Market Crash | July 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Expand Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.5 |
| Rev LTM | 7,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,863 |
| FCF LTM | 1,424 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,285 |
| CFO LTM | 3,839 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,267 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.5 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 16.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.6% | 9.0% | 18.2% |
| 7/29/2025 | 4.9% | 1.7% | -2.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.6% | -0.8% | 7.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 7/29/2024 | -0.4% | -7.1% | -3.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -3.6% | -1.4% | 0.8% |
| 2/20/2024 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2023 | 1.0% | -4.1% | -6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.5% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -2.5% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 15.9% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -9.2% | -6.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |