Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $112.95 | Market Cap: $26.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Expand Energy (EXE)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $112.95Market Cap: $26.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -43% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting the movement of Expand Energy (EXE) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 12, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat.
Expand Energy reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 28th, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.88. The company's revenue also significantly exceeded expectations, reaching $2.97 billion against an estimated $1.98 billion.
2. Substantial Institutional Investor Activity.
During this period, several large institutional investors significantly increased their stakes or acquired new positions in Expand Energy. For instance, Castleark Management LLC boosted its position by 416.1% in the second quarter, with holdings valued at over $10.4 million. HRT Financial LP increased its holdings by 474.4% in the second quarter, bringing its stake to over $37.1 million. Other large institutional purchases and new stakes exceeding $5 million included those by Public Sector Pension Investment Board, Resona Asset Management Co. Ltd., Russell Investments Group Ltd., and National Pension Service. Vanguard Group Inc. also significantly grew its holdings by $3.18 billion, acquiring an additional 559,887 shares in the second quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXE Return | � | � | 62% | -15% | 33% | 18% | � |
| Peers Return | 21% | 136% | 54% | -0% | 15% | 10% | 456% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXE Win Rate | � | 70% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 67% | 63% | 50% | 45% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXE Max Drawdown | � | � | -2% | -23% | -7% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -2% | -3% | -18% | -15% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, CTRA, RRC, AR, DVN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 671 days | 464 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Expand Energy's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Expand Energy Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 10% YTD) [9/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| Time To Buy Expand Energy Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Expand Energy (EXE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: VZ, HSY, ROST | Losers: EQT, EXE, CTRA | July 22nd, 2025 | ||
| EXE Stock Down -12% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 10th, 2025 | ||
| How Low Can Expand Energy Stock Go In A Market Crash | July 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.1% | 31.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.1% | 31.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Expand Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.8 |
| Rev LTM | 7,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,863 |
| FCF LTM | 1,424 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,285 |
| CFO LTM | 3,839 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,267 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.8 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 16.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.6% | 9.0% | 18.2% |
| 7/29/2025 | 4.9% | 1.7% | -2.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.6% | -0.8% | 7.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 7/29/2024 | -0.4% | -7.1% | -3.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -3.6% | -1.4% | 0.8% |
| 2/20/2024 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2023 | 1.0% | -4.1% | -6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.5% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -2.5% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 15.9% | 29.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -9.2% | -6.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |