Tearsheet

Expand Energy (EXE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $123.04 | Market Cap: $29.3 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Expand Energy (EXE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $123.04
Market Cap: $29.3 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EXE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Expand Energy (EXE) experienced a notable 27.6% stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors. The company's strong third-quarter 2025 financial and operational results, strategic agreements, and positive guidance updates were central to this performance. The stock reached an all-time high closing price of $122.89 on December 3, 2025.

1. Expand Energy reported robust financial performance in its Q3 2025 earnings, particularly in cash flow and adjusted EBITDAX, which overshadowed a revenue miss. The company announced net cash provided by operating activities of $1,201 million and an adjusted EBITDAX of $1,082 million. While revenue of $1.85 billion fell short of the estimated $2.49 billion, adjusted net income of $0.97 per diluted share met expectations, and some reports indicated it topped analysts' consensus estimates. This strong underlying profitability and cash generation likely reassured investors.

2. The company increased its full-year 2025 production guidance while simultaneously reducing capital expenditure guidance. Expand Energy raised the midpoint of its full-year 2025 production guidance by 50 MMcfe/d to 7.15 Bcfe/d and lowered the midpoint of its capital expenditures guidance by $75 million to $2.85 billion. This indicates improved capital efficiency and a positive outlook for future production at a lower cost, which is attractive to investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EXE Return--62%-15%33%22%125%
Peers Return-37%91%57%10%1%-1%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXE Win Rate-70%67%33%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate40%68%62%58%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXE Max Drawdown---2%-23%-7%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-1%0%-14%-9%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven671 days464 days

Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG


In The Past

Expand Energy's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Expand Energy (EXE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EXE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Expand Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EXEBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameExpand E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
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Growth & Margins

EXEBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameExpand E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
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CFO/Rev LTM-------
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FCF/Rev LTM-------
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Valuation

EXEBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameExpand E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
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Net D/E-------

Returns

EXEBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameExpand E.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
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3Y Rtn-------
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Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,142,425
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.6%
Average Daily Volume3,444,106
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.24
Basic Shares Quantity238,221,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
93020211102202110-Q 9/30/2021