Tearsheet

Expand Energy (EXE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $109.56 | Market Cap: $26.1 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Expand Energy (EXE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $109.56
Market Cap: $26.1 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -46%
Key risks
EXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility.
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -46%
7 Key risks
EXE key risks include [1] a notable debt structure with significant interest expenses that could limit the company's financial flexibility.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EXE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Expand Energy (symbol: EXE) stock has experienced significant positive movement in the recent period:

1. Expand Energy reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) significantly beating consensus estimates by 10.2% and topline revenue surging to approximately $3 billion. This performance was driven by a massive increase in sales of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, alongside notable growth in marketing revenues.

2. Analysts have consistently raised price targets and maintained positive ratings for Expand Energy, reflecting strong confidence in the company's outlook. For example, Mizuho increased its price target to $142 in December 2025, and Piper Sandler boosted its target to $138 in November 2025, both maintaining "Outperform" or "Overweight" ratings. The consensus analyst rating is a "Strong Buy," with an average 12-month price target suggesting significant upside potential.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EXE Return62%-15%33%10%
Peers Return21%136%54%-0%15%4%425%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXE Win Rate70%67%33%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate45%67%63%50%45%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXE Max Drawdown-2%-23%-7%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-2%-3%-18%-15%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, CTRA, RRC, AR, DVN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven671 days464 days

Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG


In The Past

Expand Energy's stock fell -30.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.8% loss requires a 44.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Expand Energy (EXE)

Better Bets than Expand Energy (EXE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EXE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Expand Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EXEEQTCTRARRCARDVNMedian
NameExpand E.EQT Coterra .Range Re.Antero R.Devon En. 
Mkt Price109.5454.3625.9235.4234.3136.9536.19
Mkt Cap26.133.919.88.410.623.221.5
Rev LTM10,8487,8887,0812,8784,88017,4707,484
Op Inc LTM1,5242,9222,2027817333,9581,863
FCF LTM1,4012,4901,4484971,1802,8181,424
FCF 3Y Avg8801,5901,6075409811,6771,285
CFO LTM4,0014,7573,6771,1321,5386,8413,839
CFO 3Y Avg2,8713,6903,6631,1501,1936,7443,267

Growth & Margins

EXEEQTCTRARRCARDVNMedian
NameExpand E.EQT Coterra .Range Re.Antero R.Devon En. 
Rev Chg LTM169.1%64.8%25.1%24.7%19.7%11.4%24.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--2.8%-5.3%-14.5%-13.0%-2.1%-5.3%
Rev Chg Q359.3%49.8%33.7%16.1%15.2%7.6%24.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM27.2%8.3%6.9%3.3%3.2%1.8%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM14.0%37.0%31.1%27.2%15.0%22.7%24.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.1%20.2%34.2%25.1%12.2%28.3%22.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.0%7.8%0.1%1.7%2.4%-1.7%2.0%
CFO/Rev LTM36.9%60.3%51.9%39.3%31.5%39.2%39.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.7%58.1%56.7%41.6%25.5%41.8%41.7%
FCF/Rev LTM12.9%31.6%20.4%17.3%24.2%16.1%18.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.7%23.5%24.8%19.1%21.0%10.2%20.1%

Valuation

EXEEQTCTRARRCARDVNMedian
NameExpand E.EQT Coterra .Range Re.Antero R.Devon En. 
Mkt Cap26.133.919.88.410.623.221.5
P/S2.34.32.53.12.11.32.4
P/EBIT17.910.98.111.613.65.411.3
P/E29.219.111.015.617.68.116.6
P/CFO6.37.14.97.96.73.26.5
Total Yield6.4%6.4%12.8%7.1%5.7%15.1%6.8%
Dividend Yield3.0%1.1%3.7%0.7%0.0%2.8%2.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.5%7.1%8.5%6.7%11.0%6.5%6.9%
D/E0.20.20.20.20.30.40.2
Net D/E0.20.20.20.20.30.30.2

Returns

EXEEQTCTRARRCARDVNMedian
NameExpand E.EQT Coterra .Range Re.Antero R.Devon En. 
1M Rtn-6.4%-7.9%-0.2%-6.9%2.0%6.0%-3.3%
3M Rtn10.4%9.1%7.2%-0.1%6.4%5.0%6.8%
6M Rtn-7.5%-7.9%-1.4%-16.4%-20.3%10.0%-7.7%
12M Rtn16.8%24.5%9.4%4.7%8.6%18.1%13.1%
3Y Rtn24.5%52.9%17.3%37.6%1.1%-30.6%20.9%
1M Excs Rtn-7.1%-8.7%-0.9%-7.7%1.3%5.3%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn10.0%9.0%7.2%-0.7%6.2%4.9%6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-19.8%-20.3%-13.8%-28.8%-32.6%-2.4%-20.1%
12M Excs Rtn3.6%9.6%-5.2%-9.9%-5.1%1.0%-2.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.6%-14.2%-51.7%-30.3%-64.8%-100.1%-48.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222020
Natural Gas3,84210,2581,6852,719
Oil1,9283,4112,6895,327
Natural gas, oil and Natural gas liquids (NGL) derivatives1,728-2,6805965
Natural gas liquids (NGL)277454240438
Total7,77511,4435,2108,489


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,325,975
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.3%
Average Daily Volume3,284,372
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity238,221,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-0.6%9.0%18.2%
7/29/20254.9%1.7%-2.6%
2/26/2025-4.6%-0.8%7.7%
10/29/20243.5%1.1%15.9%
7/29/2024-0.4%-7.1%-3.9%
4/30/2024-3.6%-1.4%0.8%
2/20/20248.0%5.5%11.8%
10/31/20231.0%-4.1%-6.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative9108
Median Positive2.4%3.5%10.8%
Median Negative-2.9%-2.5%-4.0%
Max Positive8.0%15.9%29.9%
Max Negative-4.6%-9.2%-6.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
93020211102202110-Q 9/30/2021