Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $109.07 | Market Cap: $430.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $109.07Market Cap: $430.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Conservative Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance after Strong Q4 FY2026 Performance. Cisco reported robust results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on July 25, 2026, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year to $17.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 23% to $1.22, both exceeding analyst estimates. However, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal year 2027, projecting revenue between $72.2 billion and $73.4 billion, was perceived by the market as a deceleration in growth from the prior year's pace, leading to a negative stock reaction despite the strong quarterly beat.
2. Discrepancy in AI Infrastructure Order Conversion. Although Cisco announced significant AI infrastructure orders totaling $9.3 billion for fiscal year 2026, only approximately $4 billion of this was recognized as revenue within that fiscal year. The projected conversion of about $7.5 billion in AI-related revenue for fiscal year 2027 fell short of investors' heightened expectations for the immediate revenue impact of these substantial orders.
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Conservative Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance after Strong Q4 FY2026 Performance. Cisco reported robust results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on July 25, 2026, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year to $17.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 23% to $1.22, both exceeding analyst estimates. However, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal year 2027, projecting revenue between $72.2 billion and $73.4 billion, was perceived by the market as a deceleration in growth from the prior year's pace, leading to a negative stock reaction despite the strong quarterly beat.
2. Discrepancy in AI Infrastructure Order Conversion. Although Cisco announced significant AI infrastructure orders totaling $9.3 billion for fiscal year 2026, only approximately $4 billion of this was recognized as revenue within that fiscal year. The projected conversion of about $7.5 billion in AI-related revenue for fiscal year 2027 fell short of investors' heightened expectations for the immediate revenue impact of these substantial orders.
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Conservative Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance after Strong Q4 FY2026 Performance. Cisco reported robust results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on July 25, 2026, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year to $17.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 23% to $1.22, both exceeding analyst estimates. However, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal year 2027, projecting revenue between $72.2 billion and $73.4 billion, was perceived by the market as a deceleration in growth from the prior year's pace, leading to a negative stock reaction despite the strong quarterly beat.
2. Discrepancy in AI Infrastructure Order Conversion. Although Cisco announced significant AI infrastructure orders totaling $9.3 billion for fiscal year 2026, only approximately $4 billion of this was recognized as revenue within that fiscal year. The projected conversion of about $7.5 billion in AI-related revenue for fiscal year 2027 fell short of investors' heightened expectations for the immediate revenue impact of these substantial orders.
3. Market Concerns over Hyperscaler Concentration in AI Orders. A significant portion of Cisco's AI infrastructure orders came from a concentrated group of hyperscale customers. The market harbored concerns that this concentration could potentially limit Cisco's long-term pricing power and raise questions about the sustainability of these orders, given that hyperscalers possess the capability to develop their own networking equipment.
4. Security Vulnerability Disclosure. On June 5, 2026, the announcement of zero-day vulnerabilities within Cisco's Catalyst SD-WAN Manager software triggered a notable single-session stock decline of 6.43%, reflecting investor apprehension regarding product security and its potential business implications.
Show less
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Conservative Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance after Strong Q4 FY2026 Performance. Cisco reported robust results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on July 25, 2026, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year to $17.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 23% to $1.22, both exceeding analyst estimates. However, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal year 2027, projecting revenue between $72.2 billion and $73.4 billion, was perceived by the market as a deceleration in growth from the prior year's pace, leading to a negative stock reaction despite the strong quarterly beat.
2. Discrepancy in AI Infrastructure Order Conversion. Although Cisco announced significant AI infrastructure orders totaling $9.3 billion for fiscal year 2026, only approximately $4 billion of this was recognized as revenue within that fiscal year. The projected conversion of about $7.5 billion in AI-related revenue for fiscal year 2027 fell short of investors' heightened expectations for the immediate revenue impact of these substantial orders.
3. Market Concerns over Hyperscaler Concentration in AI Orders. A significant portion of Cisco's AI infrastructure orders came from a concentrated group of hyperscale customers. The market harbored concerns that this concentration could potentially limit Cisco's long-term pricing power and raise questions about the sustainability of these orders, given that hyperscalers possess the capability to develop their own networking equipment.
4. Security Vulnerability Disclosure. On June 5, 2026, the announcement of zero-day vulnerabilities within Cisco's Catalyst SD-WAN Manager software triggered a notable single-session stock decline of 6.43%, reflecting investor apprehension regarding product security and its potential business implications.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.0% change in CSCO stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.97 | 109.20 | -9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 60,746 | 63,325 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.7% | 21.0% | 6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.6 | 32.5 | -18.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,952 | 3,950 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | -9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -2.0% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.7% change in CSCO stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.74 | 109.20 | 38.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,054 | 63,325 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.8% | 21.0% | 11.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.1 | 32.5 | 15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,955 | 3,950 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 38.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.1% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.3% change in CSCO stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.69 | 109.20 | 61.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,623 | 63,325 | 13.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.6% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 32.5 | 18.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,972 | 3,950 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 61.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 37.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.3% | 44.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 106.1% change in CSCO stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.98 | 109.20 | 106.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,897 | 63,325 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.9% | 21.0% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 32.5 | 72.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,089 | 3,950 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 106.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 106.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 117.2% | 49.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 33% | 43% | 185% |
| Peers Return | 77% | -19% | 66% | 51% | 6% | 133% | 792% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 42% | 65% | 65% | 60% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -10% | -36% | -17% | -13% | -17% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -36% | -23% | -30% | -41% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1127 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2076 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Cisco Systems, Inc. is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP) based networking and other related products essential for modern communications and information technology. At its core, Cisco provides the foundational infrastructure that enables the internet and various networks to function, allowing data to be transported, stored, and secured across different environments worldwide.
The company's product portfolio is diverse, spanning several critical areas. Its "Infrastructure Platforms" include core networking technologies like switches, routers, wireless solutions, and data center products, all designed to deliver comprehensive networking capabilities. Beyond networking hardware, Cisco offers "Collaboration Products" such as unified communications, video conferencing (TelePresence), and Internet of Things (IoT) software. Furthermore, it provides extensive "Security Products" covering network, cloud, email, and advanced threat protection, along with identity and access management. Cisco also supports its customers with a range of technical support and advanced services.
Cisco serves a broad and diverse customer base globally, including businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, and telecommunications service providers. It reaches these customers through a combination of direct sales and an extensive network of channel partners, including systems integrators, resellers, and distributors. Headquartered in San Jose, California, Cisco's operations and sales span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.
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- The IBM for business networking and digital infrastructure.
- The General Electric for the foundational technology of the internet and enterprise networks.
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- Networking Hardware: Cisco provides a full range of networking hardware, including switches, routers, wireless access points, and data center infrastructure, essential for building and maintaining digital networks.
- Collaboration Solutions: These products facilitate communication and teamwork, encompassing unified communications, TelePresence for high-definition video conferencing, and general conferencing platforms.
- Security Solutions: Cisco offers comprehensive security products to protect networks, cloud environments, email, and user identities from a wide array of cyber threats.
- Internet of Things (IoT) & Analytics Software: This category includes software for connecting and managing IoT devices, alongside advanced tools for data analysis and insights.
- Technical Support & Advanced Services: Cisco provides various service and support options, from essential technical assistance to specialized advanced services, ensuring customer success and operational efficiency.
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Major Suppliers:
- Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd.) (TPE: 2317)
- Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL)
- Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM)
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Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Chuck Robbins joined Cisco in 1997 and has served as CEO since July 2015, also becoming Chairman of the Board in December 2017. He has been instrumental in leading Cisco's strategic shift towards software, services, and innovative technologies. Prior to his CEO role, Robbins held various leadership positions within the company, including Senior Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations, where he oversaw global sales and partner organizations, and Senior Vice President of the Americas. Before joining Cisco, he worked as an application developer for North Carolina National Bank and held positions at Wellfleet Communications and Ascend Communications.
Mark Patterson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Patterson became Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective July 27, 2025, succeeding Scott Herren. He joined Cisco in September 2000 and has held various leadership roles within the company, including Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer since March 2024. Patterson also served as Senior Vice President, Chief of Staff to the Chair & CEO, and Senior Vice President, Strategy, Planning, and Operations for Worldwide Sales and Marketing. Before his tenure at Cisco, he led finance and operations for IPMobile, a company that was later acquired by Cisco in 2000.
Jeetu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer
Jeetu Patel leads Cisco's global product vision and strategy. He joined Cisco in 2020 and initially led the collaboration and security business. Patel is recognized for his dedication to product design, user experience, and for driving innovation across Cisco's extensive product portfolio, establishing the company's role as critical infrastructure for the AI era.
Dev Stahlkopf, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Dev Stahlkopf serves as Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer.
Thimaya Subaiya, Executive Vice President, Operations
Thimaya Subaiya is Cisco's Executive Vice President of Operations, overseeing key functions such as Security & Trust, Supply Chain, IT, internal Cisco AI governance, and core operations. He is known for his strong background in implementing growth strategies within the services and software businesses, balancing innovation, simplicity, and optimization.
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The key risks to Cisco Systems (CSCO) include intensifying competition in the AI networking sector, ongoing margin pressures from rising costs and product mix, and challenges in effectively integrating strategic acquisitions.
- Intensifying Competition in AI Networking: Cisco faces significant competitive pressures, particularly in the rapidly evolving AI networking sector. Rivals such as Arista Networks and Nvidia are actively gaining market share in data center AI networking, leading to a decline in Cisco's core network revenue. This fierce competition poses a substantial threat to Cisco's market position and long-term revenue growth.
- Margin Pressures from Rising Costs and Product Mix: The company is experiencing declining gross margins, primarily due to increases in memory chip prices and a product mix that is more hardware-heavy. These rising costs directly impact Cisco's profitability and have led to weaker-than-expected profitability forecasts, causing investor concern and stock volatility.
- Challenges in Integrating Acquisitions: Cisco's aggressive acquisition strategy, including the recent $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, presents integration challenges. These challenges can include potential cultural clashes, talent drain, and a slower-than-anticipated return on investment. Furthermore, a rapid succession of acquisitions may stretch the company into areas where it lacks a solid competitive advantage, leading to operational complexities.
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The clear emerging threats for Cisco Systems include:
- The accelerating industry shift towards **Secure Access Service Edge (SASE)** architectures, which converge network and security functions into a single, cloud-delivered platform. This fundamentally challenges Cisco's traditional model of selling distinct on-premises networking and security hardware and software appliances, as pure-play SASE providers and other integrated security vendors gain market share.
- The increasing maturity and comprehensive nature of **hyperscale public cloud providers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud)**. As more enterprises migrate their core infrastructure and applications to these cloud environments, the native networking, security, and collaboration services offered by the cloud providers reduce the need for traditional enterprise-purchased hardware and software from vendors like Cisco.
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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) operates within several large and expanding addressable markets for its diverse range of products and services.
Overall Addressable Market
- Cisco aims for a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $900 billion by 2025, encompassing its existing, expansion, and adjacent markets globally. As of September 2021, the company addressed a market worth nearly $260 billion, with a goal to increase this to around $400 billion by 2025 in existing and expansion markets.
Infrastructure Platforms
- Managed Network Services: The global managed network services market was valued at USD 75.69 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 150.28 billion by 2032. North America is a dominant region, expected to hold the largest market share (approximately 35.22%) in this sector. Another estimate places the global market at USD 235.94 billion in 2024, growing to USD 541.32 billion by 2035. Cisco itself forecasts its total addressable market for managed services to be $113 billion by 2025.
- Routers and Switches: Cisco's market for routers and switches is estimated to reach USD 32.1 billion globally in 2026 and is projected to surpass USD 49.7 billion by 2032.
Collaboration Products
- Unified Communications (UC): The global unified communications market size was estimated at USD 136.11 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 417.86 billion by 2030. North America accounted for 26.0% of the global unified communications market in 2023.
- Video Conferencing: The global video conferencing market size was estimated at USD 11.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.46 billion by 2033. North America held the largest revenue share of over 38% in this market in 2024.
- Internet of Things (IoT) Solutions: The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030. North America held the largest market revenue share, accounting for 36.1% in 2023. More specifically, the global IoT Software market was valued at USD 1.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly USD 3.28 billion by 2032.
Security Products
- Network Security: The global network security market size was valued at USD 27.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 79.29 billion by 2033. North America held 35.9% of the global network security market's revenue share in 2024.
- Cloud Security: The global cloud security market size was estimated at USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 133.39 billion by 2035. North America dominated the market with the largest revenue share of 35% in 2025.
- Identity and Access Management (IAM): The global identity and access management market size was valued at USD 18.86 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 61.93 billion by 2033. North America is identified as the dominant region in this market.
- Advanced Threat Protection (ATP): The global advanced threat protection market size was estimated at USD 6.79 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 24.51 billion by 2030. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023.
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- AI Infrastructure Demand: Cisco is experiencing significant demand for network equipment as companies globally expand their data centers and accelerate Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects. The company has secured substantial AI-related orders, with expectations to recognize approximately $3 billion in revenue from AI infrastructure in fiscal year 2026, primarily from hyperscalers. This growth is further fueled by the need for high-speed network technology among government clouds, commercial cloud providers, and large enterprises as AI workloads generate substantially more network traffic.
- Growth in Security Business and Splunk Integration: The acquisition of Splunk is a pivotal driver for Cisco's security revenues. The integration of Splunk is expected to significantly strengthen Cisco's Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) offerings. While there have been short-term impacts from the shift to cloud subscriptions for Splunk, which affects revenue recognition, the long-term outlook for the combined security portfolio, including new AI-powered solutions like Hypershield, is positive.
- Campus Networking Refresh Cycle: Cisco is poised to benefit from a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus network refresh opportunity. Enterprise customers are increasingly investing in modernizing their campus networks, upgrading switching, routing, and wireless products to support AI deployments and replace older infrastructure. This cycle is expected to drive demand for Cisco's Catalyst 9000 series switches and other refreshed networking products.
- Increasing Adoption of Software and Subscription-based Offerings: Cisco continues its strategic shift towards a higher mix of software and subscription revenues, which provides a more predictable and recurring revenue stream. This focus on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and software growth enhances the stability and long-term visibility of Cisco's financial performance, supporting growth across its product categories.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, Cisco's board approved a $15 billion increase to its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount for future repurchases to approximately $17 billion.
- Cisco returned $12.4 billion to stockholders in fiscal year 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with $6 billion specifically allocated for share repurchases.
- In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased approximately 19 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of $1.3 billion.
Share Issuance
- In December 2025, Cisco's shareholders approved an amendment to the 2005 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares authorized for issuance by 57,490,000.
- As of July 26, 2025, prior to the approved increase, 100,026,176 shares were available for future grants under the stock incentive plan.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2023, Cisco announced its most significant acquisition, Splunk, for approximately $28 billion.
- The company completed the acquisition of Acacia Communications for $4.5 billion in March 2021, focusing on optical component technology for high-speed data transmission.
- Cisco has made strategic acquisitions in AI and security, including EzDubs and NeuralFabric in November 2025, and SnapAttack in February 2025. It also launched a $1 billion Global AI fund in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Cisco's capital expenditures were $905 million in fiscal year 2025, $670 million in fiscal year 2024, and $849 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The company expects to surpass $1 billion in AI infrastructure orders in fiscal year 2025, indicating a significant focus on AI-driven network infrastructure and data capacity investments.
- Cisco's CEO indicated plans to boost capital expenditures in the upcoming six months (as of March 2026), with a continued focus on AI infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Communications Equipment
CSCO has outperformed 66% of its 35 Communications Equipment peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is DGII. Communications Equipment ranks 4th of 12 industries in Information Technology by median 5Y return.
Share of Communications Equipment constituents that CSCO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
73%
of 37 industry peers · 63.9% return
3Y
53%
of 36 industry peers · 106.4% return
5Y
66%
of 35 industry peers · 111.4% return
Communications Equipment peers with revenue growth within 4pp of CSCO's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | 3.8% | 32.5x | 63.9% | 106.4% | 111.4% | — |
| DGII | Digi International | 5.4% | 53.8x | 103.4% | 112.3% | 216.7% | +105pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Information Technology sector, ranked by 5Y. Communications Equipment is CSCO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 9 | 57.5% | 177.0% | 288.0% | TTMI 806% · FLEX 677% · JBL 408% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 27 | 132.5% | 68.7% | 100.2% | AEHR 928% · AXTI 528% · KLAC 470% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 30.0% | 66.3% | 83.9% | CLMB 351% · AVT 164% · SNX 119% |
| Communications Equipment ← | 36 | 23.1% | 77.4% | 67.7% | AAOI 1267% · LITE 890% · ANET 754% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 46.8% | 60.1% | 60.4% | CLS 3241% · BELFA 1279% · COHR 358% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 34.4% | 21.2% | 18.4% | POET 1845% · MU 1312% · NVDA 912% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 21 | 34.8% | 71.0% | 16.9% | DELL 1079% · STX 992% · SMCI 942% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 21.5% | 41.5% | 13.7% | DOCN 53% · GDDY 35% · VRSN 35% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -6.3% | 9.4% | -8.2% | PI 197% · OSIS 108% · ACFN 98% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 28 | -21.7% | -7.0% | -28.6% | CHRN 533058% · APLD 1150% · TSSI 665% |
| Application Software | 123 | -22.8% | -14.6% | -46.5% | VIDA 199900% · INLX 4861% · PLTR 554% |
| Systems Software | 68 | -7.6% | 0.2% | -57.6% | PAYS 447% · QNC 392% · PANW 327% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 175.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 255.6 |
| Rev LTM | 26,239 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,915 |
| FCF LTM | 4,656 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,606 |
| CFO LTM | 6,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,402 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 255.6 |
| P/S | 11.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 39.1 |
| P/EBIT | 36.2 |
| P/E | 47.2 |
| P/CFO | 32.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 94.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 88.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 193.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 79.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 70.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 131.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Networking | 28,304 | 29,229 | 34,570 | ||
| Services | 15,046 | 14,550 | 13,856 | 13,539 | 13,804 |
| Security | 8,094 | 5,075 | 3,859 | ||
| Collaboration | 4,154 | 4,113 | 4,052 | 4,472 | 4,727 |
| Observability | 1,055 | 837 | 661 | ||
| End-to-End Security | 3,699 | 3,382 | |||
| Internet for the Future | 5,276 | 4,511 | |||
| Optimized Application Experiences | 729 | 654 | |||
| Other Products | 11 | 15 | |||
| Secure, Agile Networks | 23,831 | 22,725 | |||
| Total | 56,653 | 53,804 | 56,998 | 51,557 | 49,818 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $109.20 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 431.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.24 | $94.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.4% | 15.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.2% | 33.8% |
| Downside Capture | 152.17 | 92.59 |
| Upside Capture | 74.45 | 130.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.5% | 38.1% |
CSCO Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.90 | 0.97 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | 1.18 | 1.20 | 0.68 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| Down Beta | 0.64 | 0.07 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 22% | 74% | 127% | 159% | 156% | 82% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 30 | 72 | 139 | 406 |
| Down Capture | 167% | 147% | 162% | 95% | 97% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 34 | 55 | 110 | 338 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 64.3% | 33.8% | 1.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 43.4% | 26.2% | 1.34 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 37.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.4% | 1.69 | 5.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | -7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.8% | -0.59 | 15.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 16.3% | 25.7% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.7% | 25.9% | 0.68 | 54.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 56.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.6% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 18.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 16.7% | 26.3% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.4% | 25.0% | 0.88 | 63.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 66.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 20.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 43.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/21/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -8.4% | -10.8% | |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -8.4% | -10.8% | |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| 11/15/2023 | -9.8% | -9.8% | -6.4% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 5/17/2023 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 9.3% |
| 2/15/2023 | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% |
| 11/16/2022 | 5.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.8% | 0.9% | -7.2% |
| 5/18/2022 | -13.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 2/16/2022 | 2.8% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
| 11/17/2021 | -5.5% | -2.1% | 6.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| 5/19/2021 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.6% | -4.6% | 0.6% |
| 11/12/2020 | 7.1% | 6.5% | 14.4% |
| 8/12/2020 | -11.2% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 09/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 09/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 02/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 02/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/17/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/03/2020 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/19/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/13/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Revenue | Reported | 18.00 Bil | 18.10 Bil | 18.20 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 65.0% | 65.5% | 66.0% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 35.5% | 36.0% | 36.5% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.34 | ||||
| Q1 2027 GAAP EPS | Reported | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.1 | ||||
| 2027 Revenue | Reported | 72.20 Bil | 72.80 Bil | 73.40 Bil | ||||
| 2027 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.05 | 5.08 | 5.11 | ||||
| 2027 GAAP EPS | Reported | 4 | 4.03 | 4.06 | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 15.40 Bil | 15.50 Bil | 15.60 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 65.5% | 66.0% | 66.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | ||||
| Q3 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.77 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 61.20 Bil | 61.45 Bil | 61.70 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 60.60 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 4.13 | 4.15 | 4.17 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.11 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 3 | 3.04 | 3.08 | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.92 for 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 15.40 Bil | 15.50 Bil | 15.60 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 65.5% | 66.0% | 66.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | ||||
| Q3 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.77 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 61.20 Bil | 61.45 Bil | 61.70 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 60.60 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 4.13 | 4.15 | 4.17 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.11 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 3 | 3.04 | 3.08 | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.92 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 15.00 Bil | 15.10 Bil | 15.20 Bil | 2.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 14.75 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 67.5% | 68.0% | 68.5% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 68.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.5% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 33.5% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.98 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 9.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.66 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 60.20 Bil | 60.60 Bil | 61.00 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 59.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 4.08 | 4.11 | 4.14 | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.03 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 2.87 | 2.92 | 2.98 | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.85 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 111.47 | 5,832 | 650,074 | 14,310,339 | Form |
| 2 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.57 | 7,170 | 799,928 | 25,726,362 | Form |
| 3 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 112.46 | 2,760 | 310,390 | 18,586,980 | Form |
| 4 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.51 | 5,192 | 578,979 | 18,859,933 | Form |
| 5 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.53 | 6,487 | 723,494 | 18,638,397 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 111.47 | 5,832 | 650,074 | 14,310,339 | Form |
| 2 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.57 | 7,170 | 799,928 | 25,726,362 | Form |
| 3 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 112.46 | 2,760 | 310,390 | 18,586,980 | Form |
| 4 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.51 | 5,192 | 578,979 | 18,859,933 | Form |
| 5 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.53 | 6,487 | 723,494 | 18,638,397 | Form |
| 6 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 111.54 | 21,628 | 2,412,346 | 67,225,115 | Form |
| 7 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.91 | 7,127 | 854,599 | 16,890,171 | Form |
| 8 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 121.12 | 2,607 | 315,771 | 20,921,454 | Form |
| 9 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 119.96 | 7,397 | 887,322 | 21,294,393 | Form |
| 10 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 120.03 | 21,400 | 2,568,584 | 76,467,557 | Form |
| 11 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 114.61 | 2,761 | 316,438 | 20,730,293 | Form |
| 12 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.31 | 6,586 | 772,580 | 20,789,396 | Form |
| 13 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.29 | 5,512 | 646,485 | 22,438,478 | Form |
| 14 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.28 | 7,169 | 840,781 | 28,937,374 | Form |
| 15 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 77.97 | 4,892 | 381,450 | 15,598,009 | Form |
| 16 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 79.74 | 3,132 | 249,746 | 15,040,000 | Form |
| 17 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 79.50 | 7,981 | 634,513 | 14,874,770 | Form |
| 18 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 77.07 | 1,744 | 134,410 | 12,076,338 | Form |
| 19 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 77.54 | 551 | 42,725 | 2,167,766 | Form |
| 20 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 77.74 | 2,179 | 169,395 | 2,239,430 | Form |
| 21 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 78.60 | 10,233 | 804,268 | 12,587,278 | Form |
| 22 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 74.24 | 51 | 3,786 | 2,300,376 | Form |
| 23 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 76.00 | 11,248 | 854,853 | 19,971,065 | Form |
| 24 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 76.00 | 19,545 | 1,485,395 | 51,002,391 | Form |
| 25 | Capellas, Michael D | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 77.13 | 10,850 | 836,860 | 11,289,364 | Form | |
| 26 | Capellas, Michael D | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 77.28 | 16,150 | 1,247,994 | 12,149,052 | Form | |
| 27 | Johnson, Kristina M | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 77.13 | 13,481 | 1,039,845 | 4,753,785 | Form | |
| 28 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 79.46 | 1,745 | 138,658 | 14,010,279 | Form |
| 29 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 80.33 | 428 | 34,381 | 2,584,729 | Form |
| 30 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 76.38 | 9,801 | 748,586 | 2,522,465 | Form |
| 31 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 79.21 | 13,353 | 1,057,691 | 15,607,507 | Form |
| 32 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 78.33 | 56,038 | 4,389,264 | 14,081,518 | Form |
| 33 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 77.30 | 68,916 | 5,327,200 | 16,147,694 | Form |
| 34 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.30 | 116,734 | 9,023,672 | 54,431,841 | Form |
| 35 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.98 | 15 | 1,170 | 16,406,415 | Form |
| 36 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.98 | 20 | 1,560 | 15,340,098 | Form |
| 37 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 78.35 | 281,860 | 22,084,655 | 64,319,194 | Form |
| 38 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 76.56 | 5,425 | 415,338 | 16,108,806 | Form |
| 39 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.85 | 164,584 | 12,813,549 | 15,316,900 | Form |
| 40 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.86 | 163,896 | 12,760,201 | 21,885,824 | Form |
| 41 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.82 | 203,838 | 15,863,311 | 85,819,230 | Form |
| 42 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 67.95 | 17,526 | 1,190,839 | 13,511,577 | Form |
| 43 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 66.78 | 1,744 | 116,464 | 10,551,816 | Form |
| 44 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 68.25 | 428 | 29,211 | 2,089,729 | Form |
| 45 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 68.08 | 2,718 | 185,054 | 10,701,824 | Form |
| 46 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 67.28 | 3,162 | 212,739 | 2,117,178 | Form |
| 47 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.84 | 7,511 | 502,022 | 10,792,159 | Form |
| 48 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.98 | 7,230 | 484,294 | 10,574,636 | Form |
| 49 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.60 | 9,061 | 603,437 | 15,810,509 | Form |
| 50 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.63 | 30,557 | 2,036,057 | 42,577,483 | Form |
| 51 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.60 | 9,783 | 651,568 | 10,767,048 | Form |
| 52 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 68.61 | 475 | 32,590 | 2,375,976 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 5, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $16.0 Mil | 5.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $465.5 Mil | 5.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $40.6 Mil | 3.9% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.2 Mil | 3.5% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $11.7 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $465.5 Mil | 5.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $40.6 Mil | 3.9% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.2 Mil | 3.5% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $16.0 Mil | 5.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $11.7 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
CSCO Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Cisco is capturing a massive AI-driven hardware cycle, evidenced by 35% product order growth and $9.3 billion in AI orders for fiscal 2026. While a hardware mix-shift pressures gross margins, powerful operating leverage is already expanding overall profitability. The company is positioned to deliver record operating margins in fiscal 2027 if execution continues.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical Capital Goods with a Recurring Base(Volume of hardware sold × Average Selling Price) + (Annual Recurring Revenue × Growth Rate) Operating leverage from high-volume, high-growth hardware sales to hyperscalers, where incremental sales and marketing expenses are minimal, allowing profit to grow faster than revenue.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, as operating leverage is overwhelming gross margin pressure from the product mix.
Mechanism:
Massive hardware volumes from 35% order growth require little incremental sales expense, driving operating profit up faster than revenue. Management projects this will lead to a record operating margin of about 35% in fiscal 2027, a significant expansion from the current 25.4%.
Supporting Evidence:
- Total product orders grew 35% year-over-year in the most recent quarter.
- Fiscal 2026 AI infrastructure orders totaled $9.3 billion, 4.5 times the prior year.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded 3.3 percentage points to 25.4%.
- Management guided for fiscal 2027 revenue between $72.2 billion and $73.4 billion.
- Remaining Performance Obligations provide visibility with a backlog of $46.7 billion.
PRIMARY RISK
Growth is dependent on volatile spending from a few large customers, and the shift to hardware is eroding profitability, with non-GAAP product gross margin falling 270 basis points. This suggests the current sales boom may be low-quality and unsustainable.
Mechanism:
A slowdown in hyperscaler orders, which are described as 'volatile and sporadic'.
Supporting Evidence:
- Sales to the cloud market are concentrated among a limited number of customers.
- Non-GAAP product gross margin declined by 270 basis points year-over-year.
- Inventory grew 80% year-over-year, far outpacing 17.6% revenue growth.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 32.6% lags key networking peers.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Product Order Growth | Up 35% year-over-year in Q4 FY26 - Accelerating | Product order growth accelerated significantly in the second half of fiscal 2026, jumping from 18% in Q2 to 35% in Q3 and maintaining that pace in Q4. Management characterizes this as the beginning of a "networking super cycle" driven by broad-based demand across enterprise, public sector, and service provider/cloud customers. |
| AI Infrastructure Orders | $4 billion in Q4 FY26 - Accelerating | AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers, while described as nonlinear, showed a massive ramp in the final quarter of the fiscal year. The full-year total of $9.3 billion significantly exceeded the company's initial expectations, which were raised multiple times during the year. |
| AI Infrastructure Orders (from hyperscalers) | $9.3 billion (Fiscal Year 2026) | Signals the magnitude of demand and market share capture within the high-growth AI data center buildout, a key pillar of the company's growth narrative. |
| Total Product Orders Growth | 35% year-over-year (Q4 FY2026) | Indicates the forward-looking demand trajectory for the company's products. Strong growth suggests accelerating revenue in future periods and validates the 'networking super cycle' thesis. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) | $46.7 billion (As of July 25, 2026) | Represents the total amount of future revenue under contract that has not yet been recognized. It is a primary indicator of near-to-medium term revenue visibility. |
Core Investment Debate
Operating Leverage vs. Hardware Mix
BULL VIEW
The massive volume from the AI 'super cycle' creates powerful operating leverage, allowing record operating margins of about 35% in fiscal 2027 even with a higher hardware mix.
CORE TENSION
Can operating leverage from 35% order growth offset gross margin pressure from the AI hardware mix, which the market punished with a -6.0% stock reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Trailing operating margins already expanded 3.3 percentage points, showing leverage is taking hold despite the mix shift.
BEAR VIEW
The 270 basis point drop in product gross margin shows that the AI growth is low-quality. This will overwhelm any operating leverage and lead to disappointing profitability.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Goldman Sachs Conference Presentation Watch: Cisco will participate in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, including a fireside chat with the CFO and Chief Product Officer. |
Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Citi Global TMT Conference Watch: Cisco will participate in the Citi 2026 Global TMT Conference, including a fireside chat with the SVP of Investor Relations. |
September 20, 2026 | Senior Note Matures Watch: A senior unsecured note with a principal amount of $1.5 billion is scheduled to mature. |
11/2/2026 | Competitive AI Networking Read-Through Watch: ANET's commentary on cloud customer demand, supply constraints, and market share dynamics in AI fabrics. |
11/10/2026 | Hyperscaler Order Deceleration Watch: Commentary on hyperscaler order growth rates and any change to the FY27 AI revenue outlook. |
11/10/2026 | Gross Margin Contraction Watch: Q1 FY27 gross margin results and Q2 FY27 guidance. Any deviation below the guided trend could trigger a negative reaction. |
11/10/2026 | Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Watch: Cisco is scheduled to report its Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 financial results. |
11/17/2026 | Palo Alto Networks Earnings Watch: Peer Palo Alto Networks is scheduled to report earnings. |
Q1 2027 | First Quarter 2027 Results Watch: The company's guidance for Q1 2027 covers the period ending in October 2026. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-12 | Negative Market Reaction to Q4 Details: Despite record results and an upbeat FY27 forecast, the stock had a two-day reaction of -6.0% around the August 12 earnings call. | -5.8% $120.43 -> $113.47 |
2026-08-12 | Record Q4 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported record Q4 revenue of $17.3 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and took $4 billion in AI infrastructure orders, bringing the FY26 total to $9.3 billion. | -5.8% $120.43 -> $113.47 |
2026-06-02 | Cloud Control Platform Unveiled Details: Cisco introduced Cisco Cloud Control, a unified platform for managing IT infrastructure with both human operators and AI agents, advancing its AgenticOps vision. | +4.3% $120.88 -> $126.03 |
2026-05-13 | Positive Market Reaction to Q3 Details: Following the strong Q3 earnings report and higher forecast, the stock experienced a two-day reaction of 16.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | +16.4% $98.92 -> $115.10 |
2026-05-13 | Strong Q3 Earnings and Guidance Details: Cisco reported Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS up 10%. The results exceeded the high end of guidance. | +16.4% $98.92 -> $115.10 |
2026-03-23 | Security for Agentic Workforce Launched Details: The company announced an expansion of its security offerings to cover AI agents, extending Zero Trust Access with new capabilities in identity intelligence and access management. | +4.1% $76.94 -> $80.12 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CSCO trades at roughly 29% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market), around the 62nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ANET - Arista Networks, Inc.
Pure-play AI networkingArista offers more concentrated exposure to the high-performance cloud and AI networking market. Its trailing revenue growth of 32.6% is significantly higher than Cisco's.
Core Thesis: Arista is a primary beneficiary of the AI networking buildout with strong momentum in the hyperscaler segment.
HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Broader AI infrastructureHPE provides exposure to other parts of the AI data center, including servers and AI-specific systems, not just networking. It reported $2.4 billion in AI systems orders in its latest quarter.
Core Thesis: HPE is positioned to capture enterprise and cloud spending on the full AI technology stack.
How Is The Market Pricing CSCO?
Cisco is a primary arms dealer for the AI infrastructure buildout, leveraging its custom silicon and optics to capture a hardware 'super cycle' while supported by a large, stable software and services base.
After years focused on a software transition, Cisco is now capitalizing on a massive hardware refresh cycle driven by AI. Strategic investments in custom silicon (Silicon One) and optics (Acacia) have given it a crucial edge in winning large, multi-billion dollar deals with hyperscalers. Management frames this as the early stages of a 'networking super cycle', driving accelerating growth and strong operating leverage that is not yet fully appreciated by the market.
What will confirm the thesis
Announcements of new AI design wins with hyperscalers; continued product order growth of 35%; and guidance raises for AI infrastructure revenue.
What will damage the thesis
A significant slowdown in hyperscaler capital expenditures; loss of major design wins to competitors like Arista; or a sharp deceleration in product order growth.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in smaller, non-core segments like Collaboration or minor stock price movements after earnings reports.
Repricing Catalyst
The market fully recognizing the durability and profitability of the AI-driven 'networking super cycle', re-rating the company from a slow-growth incumbent to a primary AI beneficiary.
What CSCO Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
Networking
$32.5B TTM (54% of Total)What It Is
Sells core networking technologies including switching (Nexus, Catalyst), routing, wireless, and servers. A key component is the company's proprietary Cisco Silicon One architecture and Acacia optics. Customers include enterprises, public sector, service providers, and hyperscalers.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscalers, service providers, and large enterprises write the checks to build and upgrade their data center and campus networks. They choose Cisco for its integrated portfolio of high-performance, power-efficient silicon, systems, and optics required for the massive scale of AI workloads and for modernizing their infrastructure.
Primarily upfront hardware sales, which include embedded software, supplemented by software subscriptions for enhanced features and management.
Competition
Arista Networks, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Dell Technologies, Huawei
Competitors may offer price-focused alternatives, particularly from Asia, or specialized niche solutions.
An integrated platform approach combining custom silicon (Silicon One), systems, optics, and software, which provides performance and supply chain control. Decades of expertise and deep customer relationships are also key differentiators.
Security
$8.0B TTM (13% of Total)What It Is
Sells a portfolio spanning Network Security, Identity and Access Management, and Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) to organizations of all sizes across every industry.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and other organizations pay to protect their critical assets from an expanding and increasingly sophisticated cyber threat landscape, which is being accelerated by the growth in AI and hyper-distributed architectures.
A mix of hardware appliances, perpetual software licenses, and recurring software-as-a-service (SaaS) subscriptions.
Competition
Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Zscaler
Some competitors are primarily focused in a specific product area, while Cisco aims for a broad, integrated platform.
The strategy to infuse security into the fabric of the network itself, converging networking and security into a single offering, leveraging the company's vast telemetry data.
Collaboration
$4.2B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
Sells the Webex Suite, collaboration devices, Contact Center, and Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) offerings to enterprises.
Who Pays & How
Businesses pay to enable collaboration for distributed teams and to create more engaging employee and customer experiences, with AI capabilities embedded to improve productivity.
A mix of hardware sales for devices and recurring revenue from software subscriptions and perpetual licenses.
Competition
Microsoft, Zoom Video Communications, RingCentral
Providing end-to-end collaboration solutions that can be delivered on-premises, from the cloud, or in hybrid environments, integrated with its broader networking and security portfolio.
Observability
$1.1B TTM (2% of Total)What It Is
Sells an observability suite (including Splunk) and network assurance offerings (ThousandEyes) to enterprises.
Who Pays & How
Organizations pay to connect insights across applications, infrastructure, and networks to improve service resilience and prevent downtime, which is especially critical in the AI era.
Primarily software-based, including subscriptions.
Competition
Datadog, Dynatrace
The ability to combine network assurance intelligence with application and infrastructure monitoring to provide a unified view of the entire enterprise.
Services
$15.0B TTM (25% of Total)What It Is
Provides a comprehensive portfolio of technical support and professional services to customers using its products.
Who Pays & How
Customers pay to enhance the business value of their technology investments, protect their infrastructure, manage operational risk, and minimize downtime for mission-critical applications.
Primarily recurring revenue from technical support contracts.
Competition
Deep expertise in the company's own products and the ability to deliver AI-powered support and issue resolution through its Cisco IQ platform.
CSCO Evolution: Price Return by Era
· Pre-2023: The Platform & Software Transition
Prior to the current AI boom, Cisco's reporting structure was different, with categories like 'Secure, Agile Networks'. The strategic focus was on transitioning from selling individual hardware boxes to integrated platforms with a greater emphasis on software and recurring subscription revenue.
· 2024-Present: The AI Super Cycle
The company is now capitalizing on a massive hardware-driven growth cycle fueled by AI. Revenue from the Networking segment has accelerated dramatically, driven by multi-billion dollar orders from hyperscalers for systems built on Cisco's proprietary Silicon One architecture and Acacia optics.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Pullback in Uptrend · -
▾
2
Momentum
Mixed
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Cisco Systems — Investor Video Playlist
Products & Services
Turn Your Network Into Your Best Defense
Products & Services
Building the AI-Ready Enterprise Engine: From Pilot to Performance
Products & Services
Zeiss and Cisco: Securing the Future of Precision Manufacturing
Leadership
The AI Reality Gap: From Ambition to Action
Leadership
Observability in the Age of AI with Jeetu Patel, Atin Sanyal and Yash Sheth
Investor / Analyst
Cisco Q4FY26 Earnings Conference Call
Products & Services
Two Imagers. One Camera. Meet the Cisco Meraki MV44X
Products & Services
Cisco Cloud Control: One Platform for All of Your IT
Leadership
Opening Keynote: Lead in the Agentic Era
Investor / Analyst
Cisco Q3FY26 Earnings Conference Call
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
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| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Communications Equipment Resources |
| Light Reading |
| Fierce Network |
| Telecoms.com |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/4/2026