ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $136.5 | Market Cap: $161.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $136.5Market Cap: $161.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 6.8% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. |
Qualitative Assessment
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ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Results and Increased Shareholder Returns. ConocoPhillips reported robust financial performance for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, with adjusted earnings of $3.27 per share, surpassing the Wall Street consensus estimate of $3.04 by 7.47%. Revenue for the quarter reached $20.06 billion, beating estimates of $18.92 billion by 6.03% and representing a 29.2% increase year-over-year. The company generated substantial free cash flow of approximately $4 billion and $7.2 billion in cash from operations during the quarter. Demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value, ConocoPhillips increased its quarterly ordinary dividend by 11% to $0.93 per share and returned a total of $3.4 billion to shareholders through $2.4 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends. The company also completed its $5 billion divestment program, with $1.6 billion of proceeds received in fiscal Q3 2026, further strengthening its balance sheet and ending the quarter with $10.4 billion in cash.
2. Sustained High Global Oil Prices and Tight Market Conditions. A significant macroeconomic driver for the stock's appreciation was the elevated and volatile global commodity price environment for oil. ConocoPhillips' average realized price for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), a 32% increase from the prior year, with Brent crude averaging $97.00 per barrel during the same period. Geopolitical factors, including renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions, contributed to a tight global oil supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) reduction in global oil supply for Q3 2026 compared to previous estimates, and anticipated a 4.3 mb/d decline in global oil supply on average for 2026. Forecasts from various agencies indicated Brent crude averaging around $96 for 2026, with some Q4 projections reaching $105 per barrel, reflecting the market's sensitivity to supply shocks. Brent crude notably rose to $100 per barrel on November 6, 2026.
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ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Results and Increased Shareholder Returns. ConocoPhillips reported robust financial performance for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, with adjusted earnings of $3.27 per share, surpassing the Wall Street consensus estimate of $3.04 by 7.47%. Revenue for the quarter reached $20.06 billion, beating estimates of $18.92 billion by 6.03% and representing a 29.2% increase year-over-year. The company generated substantial free cash flow of approximately $4 billion and $7.2 billion in cash from operations during the quarter. Demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value, ConocoPhillips increased its quarterly ordinary dividend by 11% to $0.93 per share and returned a total of $3.4 billion to shareholders through $2.4 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends. The company also completed its $5 billion divestment program, with $1.6 billion of proceeds received in fiscal Q3 2026, further strengthening its balance sheet and ending the quarter with $10.4 billion in cash.
2. Sustained High Global Oil Prices and Tight Market Conditions. A significant macroeconomic driver for the stock's appreciation was the elevated and volatile global commodity price environment for oil. ConocoPhillips' average realized price for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), a 32% increase from the prior year, with Brent crude averaging $97.00 per barrel during the same period. Geopolitical factors, including renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions, contributed to a tight global oil supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) reduction in global oil supply for Q3 2026 compared to previous estimates, and anticipated a 4.3 mb/d decline in global oil supply on average for 2026. Forecasts from various agencies indicated Brent crude averaging around $96 for 2026, with some Q4 projections reaching $105 per barrel, reflecting the market's sensitivity to supply shocks. Brent crude notably rose to $100 per barrel on November 6, 2026.
3. Operational Efficiencies and Advancement of Strategic Projects. ConocoPhillips highlighted its operational excellence, particularly in its Lower 48 assets, with record Permian completion efficiency marked by a 15% year-over-year increase in pump hours and a 20% improvement in stimulated footage per day. Progress on key strategic projects also instilled investor confidence. The Willow project in Alaska, a significant future growth driver, saw its module fabrication reach over 75% completion and remains on schedule for first oil in early 2029. Furthermore, the company expanded its commercial LNG offtake portfolio to 13 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). Management reiterated its long-range ambition of achieving a "peer-leading $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029," indicating strong future financial growth prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.9% change in COP stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.68 | 136.27 | 13.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,188 | 67,749 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 35.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.0 | 14.1 | -29.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,224 | 1,195 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 13.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | -28.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 3.5% | 89.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.9% change in COP stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.02 | 136.27 | 9.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,188 | 67,749 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 35.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 14.1 | -32.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,224 | 1,195 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -36.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 4.0% | 90.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.2% change in COP stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.14 | 136.27 | 58.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,798 | 67,749 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 17.1% | 7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 14.1 | 19.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,258 | 1,195 | 5.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 58.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -27.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 43.0% | 88.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.5% change in COP stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.57 | 136.27 | 25.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 66,733 | 67,749 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 17.1% | -11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.1 | 14.1 | 39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,207 | 1,195 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 25.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 21.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 58.1% | 89.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COP Return | 87% | 74% | 2% | -12% | -2% | 49% | 325% |
| Peers Return | 91% | 75% | -10% | -5% | 3% | 37% | 305% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COP Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 62% | 47% | 48% | 63% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COP Max Drawdown | -19% | -33% | -24% | -27% | -22% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -27% | -23% | -24% | -24% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 139 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1017 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 900 days | 15 days |
In The Past
ConocoPhillips's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | COP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1017 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 900 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 731 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
ConocoPhillips's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ConocoPhillips (COP)
ConocoPhillips (COP) is a global independent energy company primarily focused on the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of a diverse range of hydrocarbon resources. Its core activities involve discovering new reserves and extracting crude oil, natural gas, and their derivatives from various geological formations across the world.
The company's main products include crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). ConocoPhillips utilizes diverse production methods, operating in both conventional assets and unconventional plays such as shale gas, heavy oil, and oil sands. Its extensive portfolio spans North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, encompassing significant unconventional resources in North America and oil sands assets in Canada, along with various LNG developments.
ConocoPhillips's energy commodities are sold into global markets. Its primary customers are typically large-scale energy buyers such as refineries, utility companies, industrial consumers, and other energy distributors who rely on these resources for fuel, electricity generation, and a multitude of industrial processes worldwide.
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- The Rio Tinto of crude oil and natural gas.
- Like BHP Billiton, but focused solely on extracting oil and natural gas.
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- Crude Oil: A naturally occurring flammable liquid consisting of hydrocarbons, primarily used as a fuel and for the production of petrochemicals.
- Bitumen: A thick, sticky, black mixture of hydrocarbons, often a byproduct of petroleum distillation or found in natural deposits like oil sands.
- Natural Gas: A fossil fuel composed primarily of methane, used as a significant energy source for heating, electricity generation, and industrial processes.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state, making it easier to transport and store.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbons, such as ethane, propane, butane, and pentane, that are separated from natural gas and used as fuels or petrochemical feedstocks.
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ConocoPhillips (COP) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than individual consumers. Due to the nature of its business as a global explorer and producer of crude oil, natural gas, and related products, ConocoPhillips sells commodities that are traded on global markets or via numerous contracts with a wide array of industrial and energy sector buyers. As such, specific "major customer companies" are generally not publicly disclosed due to competitive and commercial confidentiality.
However, the following categories represent the primary types of companies that purchase ConocoPhillips's products:
- Refineries and Petrochemical Companies: These companies purchase crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) as feedstocks for processing into refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and various petrochemicals. Examples of companies in this category include integrated oil majors (e.g., ExxonMobil, Shell) and independent refiners (e.g., Valero, Marathon Petroleum).
- Natural Gas and LNG Buyers (Utilities, Power Generators, Industrial Users): These customers purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a variety of purposes. This includes natural gas distribution utilities, power generation companies that use natural gas as fuel for electricity production, and various industrial users that consume natural gas as fuel or feedstock in their manufacturing processes.
- Commodity Traders and Other Energy Companies: Large trading houses and other energy companies often purchase crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs for further distribution, blending, or resale on the global commodity markets.
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Ryan M. Lance, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ryan M. Lance has served as chairman and chief executive officer of ConocoPhillips since May 2012. He is a petroleum engineer with over four decades of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. His career includes senior management and technical positions with ConocoPhillips, Phillips Petroleum, and various divisions of ARCO. His executive assignments at ConocoPhillips have included responsibility for international exploration and production, regional oversight for Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and North America, and leadership in technology, major projects, downstream strategy, integration, and specialty functions. He began his career with ARCO Alaska in 1984.
Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Strategy & Commercial
Andy O'Brien will become Chief Financial Officer of ConocoPhillips, effective June 1, 2025. He will also retain responsibility for Strategy, Commercial and Sustainability. O'Brien has over 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, having started his career with predecessor company Conoco in 1997 as a financial analyst. He has held various leadership roles in finance, planning, global operations, treasury, corporate planning and development, and investor relations across the U.K., Canada, Alaska, Indonesia, and Houston. He previously served as Senior Vice President, Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability and Technology.
Timothy A. Leach, Director
Timothy A. Leach is a director at ConocoPhillips and brings over 40 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. Prior to joining ConocoPhillips, he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Concho Resources Inc. from its formation in February 2006 until its acquisition by ConocoPhillips in January 2021. During his tenure at Concho, he also served as president from 2009 to 2017. Earlier in his career, Mr. Leach led other Permian Basin-focused energy companies, including privately-held predecessors to Concho, and held executive roles at Parker & Parsley.
Nicholas Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48
Nicholas Olds serves as Executive Vice President, Lower 48, at ConocoPhillips.
Kelly Rose, Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Kelly Rose holds the position of Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at ConocoPhillips.
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- Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent exploration and production (E&P) company, ConocoPhillips' revenues, operating results, and future growth are highly dependent on the prices received for crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These prices can fluctuate significantly due to global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions, directly impacting profitability and cash flow.
- Environmental and Regulatory Risks (including Climate Policy): The oil and gas industry faces increasing scrutiny and stricter environmental regulations due to concerns over climate change and environmental degradation. ConocoPhillips is exposed to risks such as potential carbon taxes, fees, emissions trading schemes, and greenhouse gas reduction mandates that could significantly increase product costs and reduce demand for its products. Failure to adapt or comply with these evolving regulations can lead to substantial financial penalties and reputational damage.
- Operational Risks and Capital Intensity: ConocoPhillips' business involves complex and often hazardous operations, including exploration, production, and transportation of hydrocarbons. This inherently carries operational risks such as accidents, equipment failures, and natural disasters, which can lead to disruptions, environmental damage, and significant financial losses. Furthermore, the industry is capital-intensive, requiring substantial investments in exploration, production, and infrastructure, with risks of project inflation and an inability to find or replace commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.
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The accelerating global energy transition, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and the increasing deployment of renewable energy sources for power generation, poses a clear emerging threat. This systemic shift aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, directly impacting long-term demand for crude oil, natural gas, and related products that constitute ConocoPhillips' core business.
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ConocoPhillips (COP) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, including crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Crude Oil
- The global crude oil market size was estimated at 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025. This is projected to reach approximately 110.90 MB/d by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.90% from 2026 to 2035.
- In monetary terms, the global crude oil market size is estimated to grow from $3,050.95 billion in 2025 to $3,188.67 billion in 2026, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.5%.
- Global oil demand is expected to be 103.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and is projected to reach 104.5 mb/d in 2026.
- Global oil supply is anticipated to increase to 106.1 mb/d in 2025 and is expected to rise to 108.5 mb/d in 2026.
Bitumen
- The global bitumen market was valued at USD 73.35 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow from USD 75.60 billion in 2025 to USD 98.62 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9% during the forecast period. Other estimates place the global bitumen market at approximately USD 60.02 billion in 2026 and USD 112.01 billion by 2026.
- In terms of volume, the global bitumen market is expected to grow from 133.95 million tons in 2025 to 140.9 million tons in 2026.
- North America's bitumen market size was approximately USD 34.48 million in 2025. The United States alone consumes over 28 million tons of bitumen annually.
Natural Gas
- The global natural gas market was valued at $1,478.66 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to $1,591.93 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 7.7%.
- Global natural gas consumption reached 2,902 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the initial ten months of 2025. Global natural gas production for the same period was 3,506 bcm.
- U.S. marketed natural gas production achieved a record 118.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Natural gas demand in North America is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2026.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- The global LNG market size is projected to grow from USD 117.8 billion in 2025 to USD 228.83 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global LNG market size was valued at USD 171.69 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 227.28 billion by 2032.
- Global LNG production capacity is estimated at 553.16 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2026, up from 511 MTPA in 2025.
- Global LNG demand is forecast to rise to about 441 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2026. The global supply of LNG is expected to rise to 475 million tonnes in 2026.
- The United States was the largest global LNG exporter in 2025, selling 111 million metric tonnes. North America is expected to drive the vast majority of the 40 bcm increase in global LNG supply in 2026. The U.S. market share in the global LNG market is projected to increase from around 25% in 2025 to approximately 33% by the end of the decade.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
- The global natural gas liquids (NGLs) market size was estimated at USD 16.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 17.2 billion in 2026. Other estimates for the global NGL market size include USD 26.98 billion in 2026 and USD 15.92 billion in 2025, growing to USD 24.24 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. NGL processing industry revenue reached $99.5 billion in 2025. North America held the largest volume share of the natural gas liquids market in 2025, at 37.10%.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ConocoPhillips (COP) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Operations: ConocoPhillips is actively expanding its global LNG portfolio, which is expected to be a significant driver of future revenue. This includes long-term sales and purchase agreements for LNG from projects such as Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (expected to start up in 2027) and Phase 2 in Texas, as well as the Rio Grande LNG project. The company aims to grow its controlled portfolio supply to between 10 and 15 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The North Field East (NFE) project in Qatar is also expected to begin contributing to revenue in 2026.
- Increased Production Volumes from Key Projects: Growth in hydrocarbon production, particularly from its advantaged Lower 48 assets and the Willow project in Alaska, is anticipated to contribute to revenue. ConocoPhillips reported 2.5% underlying production growth in 2025 and has provided 2026 production guidance of 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). The Willow development in Alaska is specifically highlighted as a key project that will support future production growth.
- Cost Reductions and Capital Efficiency Improvements: While not a direct revenue driver, the company's focus on driving significant reductions in capital expenditures and operating costs will enhance profitability and free cash flow, which can then be reinvested for growth or returned to shareholders. ConocoPhillips targets a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs in 2026, contributing to an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion annually from 2026 through 2028. This improved capital efficiency positions the company to maintain resilience across commodity cycles.
- Synergies from the Marathon Oil Acquisition: The integration of Marathon Oil Corporation is expected to deliver substantial cost synergies, with a target of $2 billion by 2026. These synergies, coupled with drilling and completion efficiency gains in the Lower 48, will contribute to a more efficient operating model and support improved financial performance, indirectly bolstering net revenue and profitability.
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Share Repurchases
- ConocoPhillips increased its current share redemption package to up to $20 billion in November 2024.
- The company repurchased $5.46 billion in common stock in 2024 and $5.40 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, ConocoPhillips distributed $5.0 billion through share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion in 2024.
- The company is on track to meet a $5 billion disposition target by year-end 2026, having executed over $3.0 billion in dispositions in 2025.
- A significant disposition included the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion in October 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $12.12 billion in 2024 and $11.25 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, with preliminary guidance for 2026 at approximately $12 billion.
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include projects such as the Willow Project in Alaska, with an updated capital guidance of $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion, and various LNG developments.
Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 67.0% | 109.7% | 278.8% | MPC 533% · VLO 419% · PBF 415% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 31.9% | 100.0% | 157.7% | INSW 781% · TRGP 420% · DHT 399% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | 7 | 42.3% | 68.4% | 148.8% | IMO 316% · SU 222% · XOM 204% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 33 | 8.9% | 19.3% | 54.7% | FTI 775% · SEI 718% · TDW 460% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 45.4% | 2.1% | 46.4% | VAL 129% · NE 92% · RIG 46% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← | 50 | 30.9% | 5.6% | 41.2% | BTE 759% · PR 230% · CNQ 186% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -41.5% | -1.6% | 29.1% | CNR 267% · CCJ 168% · LEU 63% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 142.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 119.8 |
| Rev LTM | 48,418 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13,819 |
| FCF LTM | 9,248 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,446 |
| CFO LTM | 18,651 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,808 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 39.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 36.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 119.8 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 9.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 58,944 | 54,745 | 56,141 | 78,494 | 45,828 |
| Total | 58,944 | 54,745 | 56,141 | 78,494 | 45,828 |
| $ Mil | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 1,699 | 4,748 | 1,704 | 984 | 1,316 |
| Refining, Marketing, and Transportation | 438 | 534 | |||
| Gas Gathering, Processing, Marketing | 101 | 103 | |||
| Chemicals | -128 | 119 | 293 | 297 | 371 |
| Gas Gathering, Processing, and Marketing | 247 | 163 | 161 | ||
| Refining, Marketing and Transportation | 220 | 361 | 190 | ||
| Total | 2,110 | 5,504 | 2,464 | 1,805 | 2,038 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower 48 and Latin America | 28,895 | ||||
| Asia Pacific and Middle East | 23,721 | ||||
| Canada | 22,308 | ||||
| Europe | 15,562 | ||||
| Alaska | 10,950 | ||||
| Discontinued operations | 7,467 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 6,823 | 12,166 | 2,666 | ||
| Other International | 1,418 | ||||
| Chemicals | 2,732 | 0 | 2,217 | 2,225 | |
| E&P | 98,693 | 95,874 | |||
| Emerging Businesses | 964 | 924 | 1,230 | ||
| LUKOIL Investment* | 1,129 | ||||
| Midstream | 2,506 | 1,455 | 2,016 | ||
| R&M | 38,124 | 34,274 | 37,869 | ||
| Elimination | -0 | ||||
| Exploration and Production | 0 | 120,141 | |||
| Refining, marketing and distribution | 0 | ||||
| other | 0 | ||||
| LUKOIL Investment | 5,455 | 11,164 | |||
| Total | 117,144 | 156,314 | 0 | 142,865 | 174,645 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $136.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 162.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $136.92 | $121.44 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.5% | 12.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.4% | 31.7% |
| Downside Capture | -176.59 | -119.03 |
| Upside Capture | -86.01 | -44.15 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -44.5% | -30.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.14 | -1.02 | -1.12 | -1.08 | -0.72 | 0.42 |
| Up Beta | -1.08 | -1.89 | -1.18 | -1.43 | -1.11 | 0.56 |
| Down Beta | 0.07 | -1.25 | -1.02 | -0.51 | 0.06 | 1.02 |
| Up Capture | 18% | -28% | -41% | -56% | -23% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 25 | 37 | 68 | 138 | 385 |
| Down Capture | -330% | -168% | -259% | -253% | -307% | -18% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 27 | 58 | 113 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 60.6% | 31.7% | 1.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 44.3% | 23.4% | 1.49 | 88.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | -27.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -12.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | 61.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | -8.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | -3.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 17.2% | 32.7% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 20.5% | 25.6% | 0.71 | 91.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 61.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 21.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 10.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 15.6% | 37.6% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.2% | 29.7% | 0.38 | 91.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 47.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 59.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 12.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -1.1% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 1.5% | 10.7% | 18.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | -1.9% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.4% | 3.4% | 9.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | 6.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.0% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 14.9% | 33.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -1.1% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 1.5% | 10.7% | 18.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | -1.9% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.4% | 3.4% | 9.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | 6.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.5% | -3.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.4% | -2.0% | 1.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.6% | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | -5.4% | -5.9% | -7.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.8% | -1.0% | -3.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.6% | 5.1% | 18.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -1.0% | -4.6% | 14.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -1.5% | 0.8% | 9.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | -2.1% | 1.8% | -7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | -0.3% | 8.1% | 12.7% |
| 2/2/2021 | 0.6% | 14.9% | 33.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.0% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 14.9% | 33.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/18/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Production | Reported | 2.32 | 2.34 | 2.36 | -100.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.31 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Quarterly Ordinary Dividend | Reported | 0.93 | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Ordinary Dividend Growth | Reported | 11.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Return of CFO Target | Reported | 0.45 | ||||||
| 2029 Free Cash Flow Inflection | Reported | 7.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Production | Reported | 2.29 Mil | 2.31 Mil | 2.32 Mil | 4.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.20 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Production | Reported | 2.19 Mil | 2.20 Mil | 2.21 Mil | -5.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.32 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Production | Reported | 2.29 Mil | 2.31 Mil | 2.33 Mil | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.35 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 12.00 Bil | 12.25 Bil | 12.50 Bil | 2.1% | Raised | Guidance: 12.00 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Production | Reported | 2.30 Mil | 2.32 Mil | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Costs | Reported | 10.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Production | Reported | 2.33 Mil | 2.35 Mil | |||||
| 2026 Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization | Reported | 11.70 Bil | 11.80 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted Corporate and Other Segment Net Loss | Reported | -900.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 12.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lundquist, Andrew D | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 135.15 | 9,487 | 1,282,168 | 1,296,494 | Form |
| 2 | Rose, Kelly Brunetti | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 134.51 | 15,000 | 2,017,725 | 1,383,352 | Form |
| 3 | Mulligan, Sharmila | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 119.00 | 1,974 | Form | |||
| 4 | Lance, Ryan Michael | Chairman and CEO | Lance Family Trust | Sell | 3312026 | 132.71 | 113,221 | 15,025,389 | 46,447,975 | Form |
| 5 | Rose, Kelly Brunetti | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3252026 | 130.03 | 7,700 | 1,001,212 | 3,287,615 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lundquist, Andrew D | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 135.15 | 9,487 | 1,282,168 | 1,296,494 | Form |
| 2 | Rose, Kelly Brunetti | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 134.51 | 15,000 | 2,017,725 | 1,383,352 | Form |
| 3 | Mulligan, Sharmila | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 119.00 | 1,974 | Form | |||
| 4 | Lance, Ryan Michael | Chairman and CEO | Lance Family Trust | Sell | 3312026 | 132.71 | 113,221 | 15,025,389 | 46,447,975 | Form |
| 5 | Rose, Kelly Brunetti | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3252026 | 130.03 | 7,700 | 1,001,212 | 3,287,615 | Form |
| 6 | Olds, Nicholas G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 127.06 | 6,994 | 888,651 | 685,483 | Form |
| 7 | Lance, Ryan Michael | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 127.26 | 506,800 | 64,493,594 | 869,798 | Form |
| 8 | Hrap, Heather G | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 119.68 | 2,654 | 317,631 | 677,748 | Form |
| 9 | Lundquist, Andrew D | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 119.68 | 34,500 | 4,128,960 | 2,090,690 | Form |
| 10 | Olds, Nicholas G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 119.36 | 14,522 | 1,733,376 | 1,478,777 | Form |
| 11 | Olds, Nicholas G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 116.36 | 12,150 | 1,413,835 | 3,131,499 | Form |
| 12 | Leach, Timothy A | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 118.79 | 40,000 | 4,751,684 | 48,848,618 | Form | |
| 13 | Lance, Ryan Michael | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 92.50 | 500,708 | 46,315,490 | 30,152,410 | Form |
| 14 | McRaven, William H | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 86.68 | 5,768 | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $42.6 Mil | 7.5% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $16.2 Mil | 6.2% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $20.3 Mil | 5.2% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $220.6 Mil | 4.8% | 32 | TRIM -12.8% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $197.4 Mil | 4.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $24.1 Mil | 3.2% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $5.0 Mil | 1.9% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $220.6 Mil | 4.8% | 32 | TRIM -12.8% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $197.4 Mil | 4.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $42.6 Mil | 7.5% | 28 | New | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $24.1 Mil | 3.2% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $20.3 Mil | 5.2% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $16.2 Mil | 6.2% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $5.0 Mil | 1.9% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
COP Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
ConocoPhillips is executing a clear plan to nearly double 2025 free cash flow by 2029, driven by major projects coming online at a structurally lower reinvestment rate. This plan is underpinned by a strong execution track record and funds a substantial, fully cash-covered total shareholder yield.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerProduction Volume x Realized Commodity Price The margin between realized commodity prices and the all-in cost of supply, which the company aims to minimize through a high-quality, low-cost asset portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the company is on track to add $7 billion in free cash flow by 2029.
- Management is targeting a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.
- The Willow project remains on track for first oil in early 2029.
- The company plans to lower its free cash flow breakeven into the low $30s/bbl WTI.
- Shareholder returns are fully funded, with a payout funding ratio of 1.05.
- The company recently increased its quarterly dividend by 11%.
PRIMARY RISK
Recent operational results show weakness, with third quarter production down four percent year-over-year and Q4 guidance lowered, exposing the company to execution and geopolitical risk in its complex global portfolio.
- Guidance for Q4 2026 production was lowered.
- Production in Qatar was constrained in Q3 due to regional conflict.
- Operating margin of 24.7% lags that of pure-play peer EOG Resources.
- The company is evaluating a sale of its Norway business.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Production Volume | 2.302 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) for Q3 2026 - Turning around | The year-over-year decline was driven by asset dispositions and normal field decline, partially offset by new wells. However, production grew sequentially from the prior quarter, and fourth-quarter guidance of at least 2.320 MBOED points to further sequential growth. |
| Shareholder Returns (% of CFO) | A target to return 45% of Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) to shareholders in 2026. - Accelerating | The company maintains a consistent policy of returning approximately 45% of CFO annually. The absolute dollar amount of returns, particularly share repurchases, has accelerated through 2026, and the company also announced an 11% dividend increase. |
| Total Realized Price | $61.40 per BOE (Q3 2026) | The average price received for all commodities, reflecting the blend of oil, gas, and NGLs, and the company's exposure to various global price markers. |
| Organic Reserve Replacement Ratio | 99% (Full Year 2025) | Market rewards Consistently achieving a ratio at or above 100%.. Measures the extent to which the company replaces its produced reserves through exploration and development, indicating long-term operational sustainability. A three-year average of 106% was also reported. |
Structural FCF Growth vs. Near-Term Operational Slips
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the multi-year plan to double free cash flow by 2029, viewing the recent production dip from asset sales as a planned transition, not a sign of operational decay.
CORE TENSION
Can the stated $7 billion FCF inflection plan overcome the reality of a four percent YoY production decline and lowered Q4 guidance, which the market has so far overlooked?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Management's strong execution on its financial framework and on-schedule progress of major projects suggest the long-term cash flow plan remains intact.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the four percent YoY production decline and lowered Q4 guidance as the first cracks in a complex global strategy, arguing the company cannot execute flawlessly on its ambitious growth plan.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Fourth-quarter 2026 | Fourth Quarter Production Results Watch: Company guidance for Q4 2026 production is expected to be between 2.32 and 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). |
by year-end 2026 | Cost Reduction Program Target Watch: The company expects to achieve incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements of more than $1 billion on a run-rate basis. |
in the second half of 2026 | NFE LNG Project Startup Watch: The North Field East (NFE) LNG project is expected to start up. |
1/28/2027 | Peer Read-Across on Costs Watch: Peer commentary on cost inflation, supply chain constraints, or project delays in key operating regions. |
2/3/2027 | Qatar Production Disruption Watch: Any further negative guidance or reported production below the Q4 range, driven by Middle East conflict. |
2/3/2027 | Negative 2027 Guidance Details Watch: The formal 2027 capital budget and production forecast, particularly if capex is not lower or growth is flat. |
2/15/2027 | Peer Devon Energy Earnings Watch: Peer Devon Energy (DVN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/15/2027 | Peer Occidental Petroleum Earnings Watch: Peer Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Norway Asset Sale Outcome Watch: An announcement on the outcome of the evaluation, including sale price or decision to retain the assets. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Dividend Increased by 11% Details: The company announced an 11% increase in its quarterly ordinary dividend. | -1.1% $136.94 -> $135.46 |
2026-11-05 | Reported Strong Q3 Results Details: The company reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.0 billion, or $3.34 per share, beating profit estimates. | -1.1% $136.94 -> $135.46 |
2026-11-05 | Surmont Pad First Production Details: The company reached first production from Surmont Pad 104W-B in Canada, ahead of schedule and under budget. | -1.1% $136.94 -> $135.46 |
2026-10-01 | Norway Asset Sale Explored Details: The company announced it is evaluating a potential sale of its Norway business and Teesside asset in the UK after receiving an unsolicited offer. | +1.3% $125.15 -> $126.75 |
2026-08-06 | CEO Leadership Transition Announced Details: The company announced that CEO Ryan Lance would retire effective September 1, to be succeeded by Andy O'Brien. | +2.2% $114.28 -> $116.83 |
2026-08-06 | Achieved Disposition Target Early Details: The company achieved its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule with $1.7 billion of non-core lower 48 asset sales in July. | +2.2% $114.28 -> $116.83 |
2026-05-18 | Alaska LNG Gas Agreement Details: The company signed a thirty-year gas sales precedent agreement with Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC to supply natural gas from Alaska's North Slope for the Alaska LNG project. | +2.2% $121.60 -> $124.28 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: COP trades at roughly 33% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
XOM - Exxon Mobil
Global Scale LeaderExxon Mobil offers far greater scale, with revenue 5.7 times that of ConocoPhillips and a more diversified business model that includes downstream and chemical operations, providing different cyclical exposure.
EOG - EOG Resources
Pure-Play EfficiencyEOG Resources demonstrates superior capital efficiency and a lower cost structure in U.S. unconventional basins, evidenced by an operating margin that is higher than ConocoPhillips' 24.7%.
A large-scale, low-cost commodity producer executing a multi-year transition to a lower-reinvestment, higher free-cash-flow model to fund sustainably growing shareholder returns.
ConocoPhillips is in the midst of a planned free cash flow inflection, aiming to double its 2025 free cash flow by 2029. This is driven by major projects like Willow in Alaska and new LNG facilities coming online, combined with a deep, 20-plus year inventory of low-cost U.S. unconventional assets. This growth is expected to occur at a structurally lower reinvestment rate, enabling the company to sustainably grow its dividend and share buybacks as a percentage of its expanding cash flow.
On-schedule and on-budget progress for the Willow project, continued capital efficiency gains in the Lower 48, and meeting or exceeding shareholder return targets (e.g., 75% of CFO).
Significant delays or cost overruns on major projects, a sustained drop in commodity prices below the company's target breakeven, or a failure to maintain capital discipline.
Minor quarterly production misses due to weather or temporary operational downtime; short-term fluctuations in commodity prices.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition and pricing-in of the company's peer-leading free cash flow inflection of $7 billion by 2029, which is now underway.
ConocoPhillips — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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