AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $346.87 | Market Cap: $116.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $346.87Market Cap: $116.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 77% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 77% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 8/6/2026
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AppLovin reported a fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA shortfall. The company announced second quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, which fell short of the analysts' consensus estimate of $1.94 billion. Additionally, AppLovin's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, at $1.61 billion, was below the estimated $1.63 billion and also underperformed against its own guidance. This marked a rare instance where the company missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations.
2. The company provided weaker-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance. AppLovin projected revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 to be between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, approximately $2.07 billion, came in just below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $2.08 billion, contributing to a negative investor reaction.
Show more
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AppLovin reported a fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA shortfall. The company announced second quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, which fell short of the analysts' consensus estimate of $1.94 billion. Additionally, AppLovin's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, at $1.61 billion, was below the estimated $1.63 billion and also underperformed against its own guidance. This marked a rare instance where the company missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations.
2. The company provided weaker-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance. AppLovin projected revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 to be between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, approximately $2.07 billion, came in just below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $2.08 billion, contributing to a negative investor reaction.
Show more
Updated on 8/6/2026
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AppLovin reported a fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA shortfall. The company announced second quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, which fell short of the analysts' consensus estimate of $1.94 billion. Additionally, AppLovin's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, at $1.61 billion, was below the estimated $1.63 billion and also underperformed against its own guidance. This marked a rare instance where the company missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations.
2. The company provided weaker-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance. AppLovin projected revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 to be between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, approximately $2.07 billion, came in just below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $2.08 billion, contributing to a negative investor reaction.
3. Lighter-than-expected AI model improvements and associated delays impacted performance. Management indicated that the fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss was largely due to "weaker-than-usual AI model improvements." The pace of meaningful model advancements was "smaller than normal" during the quarter, and a key model release was delayed until after the quarter concluded. This raised concerns among investors regarding the competitiveness and predictability of the company's core AI-driven advertising platform and resulted in higher compute costs that pressured margins.
4. Several analyst firms downgraded the stock and significantly reduced price targets. Following the disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 results and conservative outlook, numerous analysts lowered their price targets for AppLovin. For example, Wells Fargo & Company reduced its target from $575.00 to $357.00, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock from an "overweight" rating to "neutral" and cut its price objective from $665.00 to $385.00. These revisions reflected decreased near-term expectations and heightened investor caution.
Show less
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. AppLovin reported a fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA shortfall. The company announced second quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, which fell short of the analysts' consensus estimate of $1.94 billion. Additionally, AppLovin's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, at $1.61 billion, was below the estimated $1.63 billion and also underperformed against its own guidance. This marked a rare instance where the company missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations.
2. The company provided weaker-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance. AppLovin projected revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 to be between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, approximately $2.07 billion, came in just below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $2.08 billion, contributing to a negative investor reaction.
3. Lighter-than-expected AI model improvements and associated delays impacted performance. Management indicated that the fiscal Q2 2026 revenue miss was largely due to "weaker-than-usual AI model improvements." The pace of meaningful model advancements was "smaller than normal" during the quarter, and a key model release was delayed until after the quarter concluded. This raised concerns among investors regarding the competitiveness and predictability of the company's core AI-driven advertising platform and resulted in higher compute costs that pressured margins.
4. Several analyst firms downgraded the stock and significantly reduced price targets. Following the disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 results and conservative outlook, numerous analysts lowered their price targets for AppLovin. For example, Wells Fargo & Company reduced its target from $575.00 to $357.00, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock from an "overweight" rating to "neutral" and cut its price objective from $665.00 to $385.00. These revisions reflected decreased near-term expectations and heightened investor caution.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.3% change in APP stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 446.35 | 346.80 | -22.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,481 | 6,829 | 24.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 60.8% | 64.6% | 6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.3 | 26.4 | -41.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 338 | 336 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -22.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 28.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | -4.5% | 22.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.7% change in APP stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 473.11 | 346.80 | -26.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,822 | 6,829 | 41.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 58.7% | 64.6% | 10.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.6 | 26.4 | -53.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 339 | 336 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -26.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.1% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in APP stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 390.70 | 346.80 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,705 | 6,829 | 84.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.8% | 64.6% | 24.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 69.2 | 26.4 | -61.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 340 | 336 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.6% | 32.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1004.5% change in APP stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 323.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.40 | 346.80 | 1004.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,907 | 6,829 | 134.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 17.1 | 323.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 373 | 336 | 11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1004.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | 1004.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 66.8% | 43.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APP Return | 45% | -89% | 278% | 713% | 108% | -50% | 415% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -62% | 46% | 16% | 48% | 33% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APP Win Rate | 67% | 8% | 83% | 83% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 32% | 63% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APP Max Drawdown | - | -90% | -27% | -24% | -57% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -73% | -45% | -43% | -54% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: U, TTD, META, APPS, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is a technology company that provides a comprehensive software-based platform for mobile app developers. Its core mission is to help these developers enhance both the marketing and monetization of their applications across the United States and internationally. Essentially, AppLovin offers the essential tools for developers to efficiently acquire users for their apps and effectively generate revenue from them.
The company's platform includes several key software solutions. For marketing, AppDiscovery is a powerful tool that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through sophisticated auctions, enabling developers to acquire new users effectively. To support data-driven growth, AppLovin also offers Adjust, an analytics platform that provides marketers with solutions for measuring campaign performance, optimizing strategies, and protecting user data, which is crucial for informed decision-making.
For monetization, AppLovin provides MAX, an in-app bidding software designed to optimize the value of an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions among various advertisers. AppLovin's primary clientele includes a wide array of business clients such as advertisers, publishers, and internet platforms, all seeking to leverage its integrated software solutions to thrive in the dynamic mobile app ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Think of it like a **Google for mobile app advertising.**
2. It's like a **Salesforce for mobile app developers.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AppDiscovery: A marketing software solution that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions.
- Adjust: An analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data.
- MAX: An in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AppLovin (APP) sells primarily to other companies, providing a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps. Based on the provided information, specific names of major customer companies are not disclosed. Instead, AppLovin's business clients are broadly identified by the following categories:
- Mobile app developers
- Advertisers
- Publishers
- Internet platforms
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Adam Foroughi, Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder
Adam Foroughi is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of AppLovin. He co-founded AppLovin in 2012, aiming to create a comprehensive platform for mobile app developers. Prior to AppLovin, he founded two other marketing technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc. Foroughi began his career as a derivatives trader after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, with a degree in economics. He led AppLovin through its successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April 2021.
Matt Stumpf, Chief Financial Officer
Matt Stumpf is AppLovin's Chief Financial Officer. He joined the company in 2020 as Vice President of Finance, where he was instrumental in building the corporate finance team and guiding the company through its initial public offering.
Herald Chen, Director (Former President & Chief Financial Officer)
Herald Chen serves as a Director on AppLovin's Board, and previously held the roles of President and Chief Financial Officer for AppLovin from November 2019 to December 2023. Prior to joining AppLovin, Mr. Chen was a Partner at the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR), where he led the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) industry team from 2007 to 2019. He also previously worked for Goldman Sachs and has extensive board experience, serving on the boards of both public and private technology companies, including GoDaddy, Inc.
Victoria Valenzuela, Chief Administrative & Legal Officer
Victoria Valenzuela has served as AppLovin's Chief Administrative & Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary since July 2025. She initially joined the company as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary in May 2020 following AppLovin's acquisition of Machine Zone, where she had been the Chief Legal Officer since 2015. Earlier in her career, she served as General Counsel, Vice President, Legal Affairs, and Corporate Secretary of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation from 2004 to 2014.
Basil Shikin, Chief Technology Officer
Basil Shikin is the Chief Technology Officer at AppLovin. He holds a Masters in Mathematics from Saint-Petersburg State University.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to AppLovin's (APP) business primarily stem from regulatory challenges related to data privacy, intense competition in the mobile advertising sector, and ongoing legal issues.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Data Privacy Concerns: AppLovin faces significant regulatory risk due to investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and several state attorneys general (including Delaware, Oregon, and Connecticut) concerning its data collection practices and alleged violations of platform partners' service agreements and privacy rules. This scrutiny centers on whether AppLovin impermissibly harvested user identifiers for targeted advertising, potentially circumventing privacy restrictions imposed by platforms like Apple (App Tracking Transparency) and Google (Android Privacy Sandbox). Such investigations could result in substantial financial penalties, reputational damage, and mandated alterations to AppLovin's core data-driven business model. The company has already discontinued its "Array" product following allegations of installing apps without proper user consent.
- Intensified Competition and AI Disruption in Mobile Advertising: AppLovin operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving mobile advertising landscape. Major technology companies such as Google (AdMob, Ad Manager), Meta (App Ads), and Unity (LevelPlay) are significant competitors, continuously enhancing their AI-powered advertising platforms. There is a growing concern that these larger, vertically integrated ecosystems, with their deeper resources and advanced AI capabilities, could challenge AppLovin's market position, compress its high margins, or reduce the need for intermediaries in digital advertising.
- Class Action Lawsuits and Allegations of Misleading Practices: AppLovin has been subject to multiple class-action lawsuits alleging securities fraud and misleading investors, specifically concerning its AI technology (AXON 2.0) and deceptive advertising practices. Short-seller reports have also accused the company of improper user tracking, a murky business model, and poor data hygiene, which have led to significant stock price declines following their publication. While the company denies many of these allegations, these legal and reputational challenges can impact investor confidence and operational stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing control over user data and app functionality by mobile operating system providers (Apple and Google), leading to further restrictions on third-party tracking, targeting, and measurement capabilities. This trend, exemplified by Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework and Google's ongoing development of the Privacy Sandbox for Android, directly impacts AppLovin's core business by making personalized advertising and effective attribution more challenging.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for AppLovin's main products and services are as follows:
- In-App Advertising (AppDiscovery and MAX): The global in-app advertising market was valued at approximately USD 390.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 952 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 387.76 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 614.74 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 7.99% from 2026-2031. Asia Pacific holds a significant share of this market, accounting for over 37.6% in 2025. North America also represents a substantial portion, with a 37.78% revenue share in 2025.
- Mobile App Analytics (Adjust): The global mobile app and web analytics market was valued at approximately USD 12.77 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach around USD 58.34 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 16.40% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global app analytics market at USD 8.22 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 23.74 billion by 2031, growing at a 19.32% CAGR from 2026-2031.
- Mobile Marketing Platforms (broader category): The global mobile marketing platforms market was valued at USD 43.21 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 173.74 billion by 2035, at an estimated CAGR of 19% from 2026 to 2035.
- E-commerce Advertising (Future Opportunity): AppLovin's CEO has indicated that the addressable market outside of gaming, which includes e-commerce, could be "5x to 10x the size" of the gaming market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion into E-commerce Advertising: AppLovin is aggressively expanding its presence in the e-commerce advertising market, which CEO Adam Foroughi has indicated could be "five to 10 times bigger than gaming." This expansion involves scaling its self-service platform for e-commerce clients and introducing new generative AI-powered advertising tools, such as 30- to 60-second AI video ads and dynamic product catalogs. The company's AXON ads manager is slated for a global public launch in the first half of 2026, which is expected to further support this push.
- Advancements in AI Technology: The continuous development and deployment of AppLovin's core AI technologies, particularly the AXON platform and its upgraded version, AXON 2, are crucial for future growth. These AI models enhance ad optimization, increase bid density, and improve the value of content discovery, leading to more effective advertising campaigns for clients. The integration of generative AI creative tools is also expected to boost the volume of ad creatives and attract new advertisers.
- Sustained Growth in Mobile Gaming Advertising: The company's foundational mobile gaming advertising business is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with management expecting sustained annual growth rates of 20% to 30%. Ongoing technological advancements within its core mobile gaming business continue to contribute significantly to its robust performance.
- Global Expansion of the AXON Platform: AppLovin plans to broaden its reach by opening its web advertising platform to major international markets. Previously, these campaigns were predominantly limited to the United States. This global rollout of the AXON ads manager, targeted for the first half of 2026, is expected to diversify and significantly expand its advertiser base.
- Transition to a Pure Advertising and Self-Service Platform: AppLovin is strategically evolving into a dedicated advertising technology platform, having divested its gaming arm to sharpen its focus. The development of its self-service platform within the AXON ads manager is a key component of this strategy, enabling the company to efficiently manage an increasing number of clients and scale operations without a proportional rise in costs. This strategic pivot is anticipated to enhance profitability and establish more predictable recurring revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- AppLovin's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.2 billion in late October 2025, bringing the total remaining authorization to $3.3 billion.
- The company repurchased and withheld approximately $2.58 billion of its Class A common stock for the full year 2025.
- In February 2024, AppLovin intended to repurchase approximately $570 million of its Class A common stock concurrently with a secondary offering by a selling stockholder.
Share Issuance
- AppLovin became a public company on April 15, 2021, trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker APP.
- In December 2021, an upsized secondary offering of 7,500,000 shares of Class A common stock was priced at $83.00 per share, with all proceeds going to selling stockholders. AppLovin did not offer any shares in this transaction.
- Proceeds from the issuance of common stock upon the exercise of stock options and purchases under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan were $25.329 million for the full year 2025 and $28.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- AppLovin completed the sale of its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash and approximately 20% equity in Tripledot, closing on June 30, 2025.
- In January 2022, AppLovin finalized the acquisition of mobile monetization company MoPub from Twitter for $1.1 billion.
- AppLovin acquired mobile app measurement company Adjust in February 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- AppLovin's net capital expenditures were -$11 million in 2021, -$41 million in 2022, -$4 million in 2023, $4.22 million in 2024, and $0.00 million in 2025.
- The company's capital allocation strategy includes capital expenditures to purchase hardware and software, and continued investment in its IT infrastructure to support growth.
- A focus for capital allocation includes expanding its AI capabilities to support the further development of its advertising solutions, such as Axon AI.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,509 |
| Op Inc LTM | 351 |
| FCF LTM | 692 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 530 |
| CFO LTM | 818 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 628 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 38.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 55.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions through Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl | 5,481 | 3,224 | 1,842 | ||
| Advertising | 1,049 | 674 | |||
| Apps | 1,768 | 2,119 | |||
| Total | 5,481 | 3,224 | 1,842 | 2,817 | 2,793 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions through Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl | 3,433 | 1,590 | 458 |
| Total | 3,433 | 1,590 | 458 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $346.80 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 117.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -52.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $478.90 | $514.98 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -27.6% | -32.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 78.6% | 74.5% |
| Downside Capture | 360.34 | 300.55 |
| Upside Capture | 160.49 | 204.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.5% | 37.0% |
APP Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.51 | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 2.15 | 2.23 |
| Up Beta | -0.33 | 1.21 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 1.53 | 1.85 |
| Down Beta | 3.49 | 0.88 | 2.05 | 2.37 | 2.55 | 2.19 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 80% | 104% | 325% | 358% | 12801% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 30 | 62 | 131 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 457% | 288% | 174% | 232% | 163% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 33 | 64 | 121 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | -11.2% | 75.3% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 4.3% | 14.9% | 0.07 | 31.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 37.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 23.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | -1.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.9% | -1.23 | 29.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 40.6% | 78.6% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.2% | 20.9% | 0.26 | 49.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.8% | 53.0% | 0.35 | 26.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 17.9% | 77.7% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.2% | 22.2% | 0.47 | 48.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 46.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -19.7% | ||
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 20.0% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -9.8% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -19.7% | ||
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 34.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.1% | 0.8% | -6.9% |
| 8/9/2023 | 26.5% | 32.8% | 43.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 23.5% | 36.9% | 27.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | 27.1% | 33.0% | -2.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 18.5% | 6.0% | -24.6% |
| 8/10/2022 | -14.8% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| 5/11/2022 | 34.7% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | -6.7% | -16.9% | -20.8% |
| 11/10/2021 | 20.0% | 10.1% | -5.3% |
| 8/11/2021 | -2.6% | 9.0% | 32.3% |
| 5/12/2021 | -4.6% | 23.7% | 57.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 20.0% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -9.8% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/14/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/15/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 2.06 Bil | 2.07 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 7.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.93 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.71 Bil | 1.73 Bil | 1.74 Bil | 5.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.63 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 83.0% | 83.0% | 83.0% | -1.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 84.5% for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 1.92 Bil | 1.93 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 9.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.76 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.61 Bil | 1.63 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.48 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 84.0% | 84.5% | 85.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 84.0% for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 1.75 Bil | 1.76 Bil | 1.77 Bil | 11.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.58 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.47 Bil | 1.48 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 13.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 84.0% | 84.0% | 84.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 82.5% for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 1.57 Bil | 1.58 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 19.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.33 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.29 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.32 Bil | 20.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.08 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin | 82.0% | 82.5% | 83.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 81.0% for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| 6 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 476.30 | 8,624 | 4,107,570 | 1,144,248,392 | Form |
| 7 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 503.91 | 20,833 | 10,497,933 | 1,492,670,771 | Form |
| 8 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 565.89 | 20,000 | 11,317,856 | 138,055,767 | Form |
| 9 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 6052026 | 582.04 | 3,076 | 1,790,365 | 71,893,973 | Form | |
| 10 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 600.00 | 9,052 | 5,431,200 | 106,470,000 | Form |
| 11 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 488.90 | 2,889 | 1,412,419 | 8,773,232 | Form |
| 12 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.99 | 15,915 | 7,702,632 | 8,685,123 | Form |
| 13 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 484.42 | 62,804 | 30,423,333 | 1,545,164,196 | Form |
| 14 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.67 | 8,112 | 3,923,494 | 9,095,330 | Form |
| 15 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 458.67 | 20,910 | 9,590,790 | 3,262,236,366 | Form | |
| 16 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 453.49 | 163,910 | 74,331,211 | 3,160,530,907 | Form | |
| 17 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 513.65 | 204 | 104,784 | 13,825,790 | Form |
| 18 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 490.89 | 5,685 | 2,790,708 | 13,313,420 | Form |
| 19 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 489.05 | 6,531 | 3,193,985 | 13,163,756 | Form |
| 20 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 486.31 | 9,265 | 4,505,626 | 13,089,900 | Form |
| 21 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 486.43 | 62,804 | 30,549,692 | 1,583,459,455 | Form |
| 22 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 477.47 | 5,231 | 2,497,651 | 14,638,307 | Form |
| 23 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 657.13 | 7,609 | 5,000,102 | 182,097,294 | Form |
| 24 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 693.32 | 150 | 103,998 | 1,961,402 | Form | |
| 25 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 549.09 | 15,540 | 8,532,891 | 19,706,366 | Form |
| 26 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 548.45 | 14,708 | 8,066,634 | 19,683,399 | Form |
| 27 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 546.93 | 14,867 | 8,131,244 | 19,628,857 | Form |
| 28 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 559.87 | 2,857 | 1,599,539 | 1,859,218,377 | Form |
| 29 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 538.10 | 7,385 | 3,973,895 | 24,754,917 | Form |
| 30 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 545.38 | 27,143 | 14,803,141 | 1,812,655,869 | Form |
| 31 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 515.76 | 4,884 | 2,518,953 | 98,592,451 | Form |
| 32 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 517.11 | 15,931 | 8,238,139 | 1,542,559,090 | Form |
| 33 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 520.29 | 30,888 | 16,070,827 | 1,328,393,160 | Form |
| 34 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 497.50 | 4,069 | 2,024,347 | 1,491,991,002 | Form |
| 35 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 502.48 | 17,112 | 8,598,515 | 1,298,444,658 | Form |
| 36 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 556.56 | 8,582 | 4,776,368 | 1,671,348,518 | Form |
| 37 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 532.62 | 18,918 | 10,076,066 | 1,604,031,619 | Form |
| 38 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 589.18 | 200 | 117,836 | 1,755,167 | Form | |
| 39 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 650.91 | 150,000 | 97,636,465 | 4,643,129,577 | Form | |
| 40 | Billings, Craig Scott | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 592.92 | 2,350 | 1,393,368 | 2,197,965 | Form | |
| 41 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 487.97 | 350 | 170,790 | 1,537,106 | Form | |
| 42 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 502.23 | 35,000 | 17,578,120 | 135,580,037 | Form |
| 43 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 450.00 | 15,000 | 6,750,000 | 137,229,750 | Form |
| 44 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 438.22 | 17,012 | 7,455,073 | 23,396,362 | Form |
| 45 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 437.03 | 17,924 | 7,833,356 | 23,332,685 | Form |
| 46 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 437.48 | 17,564 | 7,683,886 | 23,356,582 | Form |
| 47 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 437.57 | 30,000 | 13,127,047 | 1,470,274,753 | Form |
| 48 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 440.23 | 26,200 | 11,534,004 | 1,140,217,267 | Form |
| 49 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 418.09 | 3,800 | 1,588,756 | 1,093,839,274 | Form |
| 50 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 416.71 | 16,599 | 6,917,026 | 133,329,549 | Form |
| 51 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 416.18 | 4,874 | 2,028,453 | 75,601,687 | Form |
| 52 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 421.94 | 3,601 | Form | ||
| 53 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 421.04 | 90,000 | 37,893,588 | 1,103,147,188 | Form |
| 54 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 420.18 | 370 | 155,467 | 170,173 | Form |
| 55 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 407.57 | 557 | 227,016 | 318,128,231 | Form |
| 56 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 406.57 | 9,706 | Form | ||
| 57 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 404.28 | 15,042 | Form | ||
| 58 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 404.59 | 15,660 | Form | ||
| 59 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 402.11 | 12,529 | Form | ||
| 60 | Chen, Herald Y | See footnote | Sell | 8182025 | 436.08 | 49,800 | 21,716,634 | 61,050,778 | Form | |
| 61 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 436.61 | 50,000 | 21,830,330 | 79,431,402 | Form | |
| 62 | Chen, Herald Y | See footnote | Sell | 8182025 | 424.19 | 200 | 84,837 | 80,510,313 | Form | |
| 63 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 432.49 | 200,000 | 86,497,959 | 78,682,436 | Form | |
| 64 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 457.93 | 32,991 | 15,107,577 | 174,896,844 | Form | |
| 65 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 446.53 | 167,009 | 74,575,231 | 185,275,972 | Form | |
| 66 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 464.69 | 200,000 | 92,938,609 | 177,479,750 | Form | |
| 67 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 466.00 | 125,000 | 58,249,976 | 3,394,012,804 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 8, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ieq Capital, LLC | $10.6 Bil | 31.6% | 2233 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $110.1 Mil | 1.0% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Broad Bay Capital Management, LP | $67.5 Mil | 7.7% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $63.3 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MGB Wealth Management, LLC | $54.5 Mil | 15.6% | 308 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $35.2 Mil | 4.2% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $30.2 Mil | 8.4% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $24.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ogborne Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 6.7% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Thames Capital Management LLC | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 48 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $8.3 Mil | 0.6% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| VMS Asset Management Limited | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $6.0 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | TRIM -96.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
APP Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The company missed Q2 2026 guidance due to a slowdown in its AI model improvements, coinciding with a key competitor's acceleration. Conviction is constructive because management issued strong Q3 guidance, projecting a re-acceleration to 46-48% growth. The upcoming earnings report on November 3rd will be a critical test of this recovery narrative.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Performance PlatformRevenue ≈ (Ad Impressions Served) x (AI-driven Conversion Rate) x (Value per Conversion) Operating leverage on a high gross margin base. As revenue scales through AI model improvements, costs (primarily R&D and compute) grow at a much slower rate.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a temporary issue. Management deployed a new model post-quarter, guided for a Q3 re-acceleration, and the strategic consumer vertical grew spend 28% above its prior peak.
Mechanism:
If the AI engine's performance is restored, it unlocks advertiser budgets, driving revenue toward the guided $2.085 billion for Q3. With operating expenses growing at just 5.9% versus 60.6% revenue growth, this top-line recovery flows directly to highly profitable free cash flow, funding aggressive share repurchases.
Supporting Evidence:
- Management guided for Q3 revenue of $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion.
- Operating expenses grew 5.9% YoY, while revenue grew 60.6% YoY.
- Consumer vertical advertiser spend finished 28% above Q4 2025 levels.
- The company's basic share count has been reduced by 5.9% over three years.
PRIMARY RISK
While AppLovin's model improvements were 'lighter than normal,' competitor Unity's ad platform grew 23% quarter-over-quarter, driven by new 'runtime data' signals. This suggests a potential structural shift in technological leadership, where AppLovin is losing its performance edge, which is the core of its value proposition.
Mechanism:
A second consecutive revenue miss or Unity reporting sustained high growth would confirm the competitive gap is real.
Supporting Evidence:
- Latest-quarter revenue growth decelerated to 52.8% year-over-year.
- Competitor Unity's ad platform grew 23% quarter-over-quarter in Q2.
- Unity is now incorporating unique signals from its 'runtime' into its AI models.
- The company's Q2 revenue was just below the midpoint of its guidance range.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 52.8% year-over-year for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Decelerating | Year-over-year revenue growth has decelerated for two consecutive quarters. Management attributed the latest quarter's softness to the timing of AI model improvements that were deployed just after quarter-end. The company has guided for a sequential reacceleration in Q3, with expected growth of 7% to 8%. |
| Consumer Vertical Growth | Advertiser spend in Q2 2026 was 28% above Q4 2025 levels. - Accelerating | Management highlighted this vertical as having an 'outstanding quarter,' demonstrating rapid scaling of this key diversification initiative. Growth is driven by existing advertisers increasing their budgets as they see success on the platform. |
| MAX publisher earnings growth | double digits quarter-over-quarter (Q2 2026) | Indicates the health and growth of the company's supply-side platform and the broader ad-supported mobile ecosystem it serves. |
| Consumer vertical advertiser spend growth | 28% above Q4 2025 levels (Q2 2026) | Measures the adoption and scaling of AppLovin's platform by non-gaming advertisers, primarily in e-commerce, which represents a key long-term growth vector. |
Core Investment Debate
Temporary Stumble vs. Structural Share Loss
BULL VIEW
The Q2 miss was a one-time model timing issue, already fixed. Strong Q3 guidance for 46-48% growth and accelerating consumer vertical adoption prove the underlying business and demand remain robust.
CORE TENSION
Can AppLovin's guided Q3 re-acceleration prove its AI moat is intact against Unity's demonstrated 23% sequential growth?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bull case, as management stated the issue 'has already been addressed' and backed this with strong, quantified Q3 guidance.
BEAR VIEW
The miss signals a durable loss of technological edge to Unity, whose ad platform grew 23% sequentially. AppLovin's decelerating growth is the start of a market share loss trend.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
11/2/2026 | Digital Turbine Earnings Report Watch: Peer Digital Turbine (APPS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Another Earnings Miss Watch: Revenue and EBITDA versus guidance, and management's commentary on the cadence and impact of model improvements. |
11/3/2026 | Negative Competitive Read-Through Watch: Unity's reported growth for its Vector ad platform versus AppLovin's growth, and any commentary on market share. |
11/3/2026 | Consumer Vertical Deceleration Watch: Management's specific commentary on the growth rate and advertiser spend in the 'consumer' or e-commerce vertical. |
11/4/2026 | Trade Desk Earnings Report Watch: Peer Trade Desk (TTD) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Q4 of 2026 | Unity 7 Beta Launch Watch: Peer Unity Software plans to launch Unity 7 in beta. |
No set date | New Platform Policy Changes Watch: Announcements from Apple or Google regarding changes to developer policies, advertising identifiers, or privacy frameworks. |
November | Unity Debt Payoff Watch: Peer Unity Software plans to pay off its 2026 convertible notes. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-05 | Q2 Earnings Miss and Guidance Issued Details: The company reported Q2 revenue of $1.92 billion, below its guidance. Management attributed the miss to the timing of model improvements and issued Q3 guidance for higher revenue. | -20.0% $419.70 -> $335.67 |
2026-08-05 | Self-Serve Platform Public Launch Details: The company opened its advertising platform to the public under the name AppLovin Ads Manager. Management noted this was a major milestone after 14 years as a closed platform. | -20.0% $419.70 -> $335.67 |
2026-07-13 | Stock Falls on E-commerce Concerns Details: An analyst note on July 13, 2026, reported softer-than-expected e-commerce ad growth for June, causing the stock price to fall $64.13 per share, or 12.65%. | -11.4% $506.98 -> $448.98 |
2026-05-06 | Q1 Earnings Beat and Positive Reaction Details: The company reported Q1 revenue of $1.84 billion, up 59% year-over-year. The stock had a positive 4.0% two-day reaction. | +4.3% $478.11 -> $498.87 |
2026-04-07 | Leadership Succession Plans Announced Details: The company announced succession plans for its executive management team and the appointment of a new independent Chairperson for its Board of Directors. | -5.2% $412.68 -> $391.20 |
2026-02-11 | Q4 Earnings and Negative Reaction Details: Following the earnings call on February 11, 2026, the stock experienced a two-day reaction of -22.0%. News reports from mid-February characterized it as a selloff despite robust results. | -22.4% $472.92 -> $366.91 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: APP trades at roughly 71% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (5.4x the market), around the 75th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
U - Unity Software
Pure-Play CompetitorUnity's ad platform is showing accelerating momentum and may possess a unique advantage by incorporating signals from its core software 'runtime' directly into its AI models.
Core Thesis: Betting on a challenger gaining technological leadership in the performance advertising market through a differentiated data source.
META - Meta Platforms
Diversified Scale LeaderMeta offers exposure to the digital advertising market at immense scale, with revenue 33.4 times that of AppLovin, and a more diversified business across multiple social media platforms.
Core Thesis: Investing in the dominant, established player in digital advertising with unparalleled user reach and a broader business model.
How Is The Market Pricing APP?
An AI-driven performance marketing engine whose revenue is a direct function of its R&D velocity and the effectiveness of its latest model.
AppLovin's core business is a high-margin, cash-generative advertising platform whose growth is directly tied to the performance of its Axon AI models. Better models lead to better advertiser ROI, which unlocks more ad spend. The company is leveraging its dominance in mobile gaming to expand into the much larger e-commerce vertical, creating a significant new growth runway. The business model's sensitivity to model updates creates quarter-to-quarter volatility but also the potential for rapid re-acceleration.
What will confirm the thesis
Evidence of sustained, material AI model improvements; rapid scaling of the 'consumer' vertical; and continued margin expansion.
What will damage the thesis
A plateau in AI model performance, failure to gain traction in non-gaming verticals, or significant policy changes by platform owners like Apple or Google that restrict data access.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term stock price volatility and market sentiment disconnected from operating performance, which the CEO has noted.
Repricing Catalyst
The recent earnings miss, which management attributed to the timing of a model update, followed by a strong start to Q3 and raised guidance. A strong Q3 report would confirm the issue was temporary and could lead to a significant repricing.
What APP Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
End-to-end advertising solutions
$6.2B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
The segment provides a comprehensive suite of AI-powered advertising tools to a globally diverse customer base, ranging from large enterprises to small businesses. Products include Axon Ads Manager for user acquisition, MAX for publisher monetization, Adjust for analytics, and Wurl for CTV.
Who Pays & How
Advertisers write the check to find and acquire high-value users at scale. They choose AppLovin for its Axon AI engine, which automates and optimizes marketing campaigns to meet specific return-on-ad-spend goals.
Advertisers are charged dynamically based on their campaign goals, rather than a fixed price per impression or action.
Competition
Meta, Google, Amazon, and Unity Software.
Competitors may have greater resources, more diversified revenue streams, or stronger brands in certain segments.
The company's moat is its proprietary Axon AI advertising recommendation engine, scaled distribution, and the network effects of its MAX in-app bidding solution, which is a foundational piece of the mobile gaming ecosystem.
APP Evolution: Price Return by Era
Through 2022 · Hybrid Operator (Pre-2023)
-89%
The company operated two distinct segments: a high-growth 'Advertising' business and a proprietary 'Apps' business, which included a portfolio of mobile games. Revenue from the Apps segment was larger but declining by 2022.
2023-Present · Pure-Play Ad Tech (2023-Present)
+3,028%
Following the sale of its Apps business in June 2025, the company pivoted to a single-segment model focused exclusively on its high-margin, AI-powered advertising solutions. This era is defined by the rapid scaling of the Axon AI engine and expansion from a dominant position in gaming into new verticals like e-commerce.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-10 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Downtrend · -
▾
2
Momentum
Deteriorating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Strong Distribution
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
AppLovin — Investor Video Playlist
Investor / Analyst
The Truth About Applovin's Q2 Earnings Crash | APP Stock Analysis
Products & Services
AppLovin Ads
Investor / Analyst
APP Stock Analysis: AppLovin Q1 2026 Earnings Breakdown!
Products & Services
AppLovin Ads: Reach Over a Billion Daily Users and Grow Your Business
Products & Services
AppLovin Ads Ad Formats
Investor / Analyst
AppLovin Stock Analysis 2026. Why Wall Street Targets 70% Upside #AppLovin #APP #Invest #Stock #Fin
Investor / Analyst
AppLovin Q4 Earnings: Revenue Surges 66% to $1.66 Billion, Beating Wall Street Estimates
Investor / Analyst
AppLovin Stock CRASHING: Short Seller vs AI Powerhouse | APP Stock Deep Dive
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/7/2026