Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $3.655 | Market Cap: $560.2 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $3.655Market Cap: $560.2 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1079% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 81% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% Key risksABUS key risks include [1] the binary outcome of its high-stakes LNP patent litigation against Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech and [2] a limited financial runway with cash projected to run out by late 2026. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1079% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 81% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Key risksABUS key risks include [1] the binary outcome of its high-stakes LNP patent litigation against Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech and [2] a limited financial runway with cash projected to run out by late 2026. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Year-over-Year Revenue Decline in fiscal Q2 2026.
Arbutus Biopharma reported revenue of $1.01 million for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. This represented a substantial 90.60% decrease compared to the revenue in the same quarter of the previous year. Although the company met analyst revenue estimates for the quarter, the dramatic year-over-year reduction, reported on August 12, 2026, signaled significant operational challenges or shifts in revenue streams to investors.
2. Share Repurchase Program Failed to Stem Stock Decline.
Arbutus announced an intent on August 21, 2026, to repurchase up to $230 million of its common shares through a modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer. This offer, which commenced around August 24, 2026, and concluded on October 1, 2026, aimed to buy back shares at prices between $5.00 and $5.75. Despite this significant capital return initiative, the stock continued its downward trend within the specified period, indicating that the market perceived other negative factors as more dominant or that the offer was insufficient to create sustained buying pressure.
Show more
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Year-over-Year Revenue Decline in fiscal Q2 2026.
Arbutus Biopharma reported revenue of $1.01 million for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. This represented a substantial 90.60% decrease compared to the revenue in the same quarter of the previous year. Although the company met analyst revenue estimates for the quarter, the dramatic year-over-year reduction, reported on August 12, 2026, signaled significant operational challenges or shifts in revenue streams to investors.
2. Share Repurchase Program Failed to Stem Stock Decline.
Arbutus announced an intent on August 21, 2026, to repurchase up to $230 million of its common shares through a modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer. This offer, which commenced around August 24, 2026, and concluded on October 1, 2026, aimed to buy back shares at prices between $5.00 and $5.75. Despite this significant capital return initiative, the stock continued its downward trend within the specified period, indicating that the market perceived other negative factors as more dominant or that the offer was insufficient to create sustained buying pressure.
3. Bearish Technical Market Signals and Weak Investor Sentiment.
Throughout October and early November 2026, Arbutus's stock exhibited several bearish technical indicators, signaling deteriorating market sentiment and increased selling pressure. The 10-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average on October 2, 2026, the Momentum Indicator moved below zero on October 29, 2026, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turned negative on November 3, 2026. These combined signals pointed to a strong downward trend for the stock.
4. Lingering Concerns Despite FDA Clinical Hold Lift on AB-101.
On October 22, 2026, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lifted the clinical hold on Arbutus's Investigational New Drug (IND) application for AB-101, its oral PD-L1 inhibitor, allowing for further clinical development in the United States. While this was a positive regulatory development for a key pipeline asset, the stock's continued decline in the subsequent period suggests that this news was not sufficient to offset broader financial concerns or negative market sentiment surrounding the company's overall prospects as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in ABUS stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.34 | 3.65 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 191 | 182 | -5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 84.0% | 84.2% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.2 | 4.7 | -9.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 194 | 197 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 42.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.7% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.0% change in ABUS stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -93.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.20 | 3.65 | -13.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14 | 182 | 1190.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 57.4 | 4.0 | -93.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 197 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 37.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.1% | 37.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.7% change in ABUS stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -93.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.73 | 3.65 | -22.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15 | 182 | 1078.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 58.8 | 4.0 | -93.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 197 | -3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -22.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 36.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 99.7% change in ABUS stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 672.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.83 | 3.65 | 99.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24 | 182 | 672.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.9 | 4.0 | -69.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 166 | 197 | -15.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 99.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | 99.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.4% | 34.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABUS Return | 10% | -40% | 7% | 31% | 47% | -24% | 3% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -12% | -19% | -27% | 74% | 168% | 222% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABUS Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 75% | 36% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 60% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABUS Max Drawdown | -48% | -53% | -45% | -30% | -20% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -43% | -44% | -49% | -43% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GILD, IONS, ARWR, VIR, MRNA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Arbutus Biopharma's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ABUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -67.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 203.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 876 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -72.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 263.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 882 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Arbutus Biopharma's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of novel therapeutic solutions for significant viral diseases. Its primary focus is on addressing chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, a global health challenge. Additionally, the company is engaged in research and development for treatments against SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, aiming to tackle emerging and established viral threats.
The company's leading product pipeline centers on chronic HBV infection, featuring multiple candidates with distinct mechanisms of action. Key among these is AB-729, a subcutaneously delivered RNA interference product designed to inhibit viral replication and reduce viral antigens. Another significant candidate is AB-836, an oral capsid inhibitor aimed at suppressing HBV DNA replication. Arbutus also explores other approaches, including AB-161, an oral HBV RNA destabilizer, and AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor to enhance the patient's immune response against HBV.
Beyond its robust HBV pipeline, Arbutus Biopharma is also developing small molecule antiviral medicines specifically for coronaviruses, including therapies for COVID-19. Through these efforts, the company targets patients suffering from chronic Hepatitis B infection and those affected by various coronavirus infections. Arbutus actively collaborates with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to advance its research and clinical programs, aiming to bring innovative medicines to patients in the biopharmaceutical market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Like a smaller, early-stage Gilead Sciences focused on chronic viral infections like Hepatitis B.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals for Hepatitis B, especially given its lead RNA interference drug candidate.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AB-729: A subcutaneously delivered RNA interference product candidate targeting hepatocytes to inhibit viral replication and reduce HBV antigens for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.
- AB-836: An oral capsid inhibitor designed to suppress HBV DNA replication for chronic HBV infection.
- AB-161: An oral HBV RNA destabilizer program aimed at reducing HBsAg and other viral proteins for chronic HBV infection.
- AB-101: An oral PD-L1 inhibitor program intended to reawaken patients' HBV-specific immune response for chronic HBV infection.
- Small molecule antiviral medicines: Research and development programs for antiviral medicines to treat coronaviruses, including COVID-19.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapeutics. At its current stage, the company primarily generates revenue through strategic alliances, licensing, research collaborations, and clinical collaboration agreements with other companies rather than selling approved drugs directly to individuals.
Based on the provided information, its major customers and collaborators include:
- Gritstone Oncology, Inc. (Symbol: GRTS)
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Symbol: ALNY)
- Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (Symbol: ASMB)
- Vaccitech plc (Symbol: VACC)
- Talon Therapeutics, Inc.
- Qilu Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd.
- Acuitas Therapeutics, Inc.
- Antios Therapeutics, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lindsay Androski, JD, MBA, CFA
President & CEO and ChairpersonMs. Androski joined Arbutus Biopharma in February 2025 as President and CEO and Chairperson of the Board. She is an MIT-trained biologist with nearly 30 years of experience in biotechnology, law, and academia. Prior to Arbutus, Ms. Androski served in various roles at Roivant, including President and CEO of Roivant Social Ventures and Vice President, Head of Acquisitions. At Roivant, she was responsible for the in-licensing or acquisition of more than 30 therapeutic programs, which led to the launch and incubation of 16 subsidiary biotechs and several successful IPOs. She also currently serves as Special Counsel at Genevant Sciences, focusing on LNP litigation. Ms. Androski has a background as a trial lawyer, including over a decade as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, and as a strategy consultant advising Fortune 100 clients.
Tuan Nguyen, MBA
Chief Financial OfficerMr. Nguyen joined Arbutus Biopharma in March 2025 as Chief Financial Officer. He brings over 15 years of strategic finance experience within biopharma companies at various stages of development. Throughout his career, Mr. Nguyen has raised more than $2 billion in capital and successfully closed a partnership deal with AstraZeneca valued at $2.2 billion. Most recently, he served as CFO at Kinevant Sciences, where he oversaw finance and operational functions to support growth opportunities. His prior experience includes senior finance leadership roles at Adverum Biotechnologies, Intarcia Therapeutics, FibroGen, and UCB.
Andrew J. Sung, JD
General CounselMr. Sung joined Arbutus Biopharma in April 2025 as General Counsel. He has over 20 years of legal experience, advising companies on corporate matters, intellectual property, compliance, contracting, litigation, and employment issues. An MIT-trained chemist, Mr. Sung has executed multiple life sciences transactions, including over $24 billion in M&A deals and licensing and collaboration agreements exceeding $4 billion in potential payments. Before joining Arbutus, he was General Counsel of Harmonix Music Systems, Inc. for several years and later worked at Epic Games, Inc. following Epic's acquisition of Harmonix. He also served as a Life Sciences Corporate Associate at Ropes & Gray LLP and a Senior Consultant in the Life Sciences practice at Cap Gemini Ernst & Young.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) primarily revolve around the inherent challenges of drug development, ongoing intellectual property disputes, and intense market competition.
1. Clinical Development and Regulatory Risk
Arbutus Biopharma is a clinical-stage company with no approved products, meaning its success hinges entirely on the progression and approval of its therapeutic candidates. The company's pipeline for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and coronaviruses is in early to mid-stage clinical trials (e.g., AB-729 in Phase 2a leading to Phase 2b, AB-101 in Phase 1a/1b). There is a significant risk that these therapies may fail to meet clinical efficacy or safety endpoints, delaying or preventing regulatory approval. Arbutus has a history of discontinuing development for drug candidates due to safety concerns or unsatisfactory results, such as AB-506 which was terminated after acute hepatitis cases in a Phase 1a trial, and ARB-1467 and AB-452 which also faced setbacks. Furthermore, AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor, has been placed on clinical hold by the FDA, pausing its development. Achieving a "functional cure" for chronic HBV is a complex and evolving regulatory target, adding to the uncertainty of clinical success.
2. Intellectual Property and Patent Litigation Risk
Arbutus Biopharma's business model heavily relies on its patented lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology. The company has been involved in extensive, high-stakes patent infringement litigation against major pharmaceutical companies, including Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, concerning the use of its LNP technology in their COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. While Arbutus and Genevant Sciences recently reached a global settlement with Moderna, potentially yielding up to $2.5 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $950 million, other patent disputes are ongoing, notably with Pfizer/BioNTech. Moreover, the European Patent Office recently revoked one of Arbutus's key patents (the '254 Patent), which could impact ongoing cases in Europe. These legal battles are costly, consume substantial resources, and carry binary outcomes that can significantly affect the company's financial stability and strategic positioning.
3. Competition Risk
The markets for treatments of chronic HBV and coronaviruses are highly competitive, with numerous pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies actively developing and commercializing therapies. Arbutus faces competition in recruiting patients for its clinical programs targeting chronic HBV. Established companies with greater financial resources, larger research and development staffs, and more extensive marketing and sales capabilities could develop products that are more effective, safer, or less costly, thereby gaining a competitive advantage. This intense competition could impact Arbutus's ability to successfully develop, gain approval for, and commercialize its product candidates, even if they prove to be safe and effective.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Arbutus Biopharma's Main Products
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) focuses on developing therapeutics for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and small molecule antiviral medicines for coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).
Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) Therapeutics Market
- The market for chronic Hepatitis B therapeutics across the seven major pharmaceutical markets (7MM), which include the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K., and Japan, was valued at approximately USD 1.6 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to US$3.2 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.3% from 2025–2034.
- Within the 7MM, the United States is the largest contributor to the CHB market, with sales of USD 710.11 million in 2024, capturing approximately 72% of the total 7MM market share in the same year.
- Globally, the chronic hepatitis B market was valued at USD 4.6 billion in 2021 and is estimated to reach USD 6.2 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3% from 2022 to 2031. Other estimates place the global market value at USD 2,709.4 million in 2023, expected to reach USD 3,379.3 million by 2034 at a CAGR of 2.03% (2024-2034), or USD 2,764.4 million in 2024, projected to reach USD 3,482.3 million by 2035 at a CAGR of 2.13% (2025-2035).
SARS-CoV-2 and Other Coronaviruses Antiviral Medicines Market
- The global market for specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 experienced rapid growth, increasing from USD 15.23 billion in 2025 to USD 17.83 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 17.1%. This market is further anticipated to grow to USD 33.17 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.8%. North America was the largest regional market for specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 in 2025.
- The global antiviral drugs market, which includes treatments for coronavirus infection, is estimated to grow from USD 69 billion in 2025 to USD 74 billion in 2026 and reach USD 127 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6.1% during the 2026-2035 period. Antiviral drugs for COVID-19 treatment account for 15.7% of this overall antiviral market share.
- The global COVID-19 therapeutics market is expected to grow at a 15.0% CAGR during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ: ABUS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company primarily focused on developing novel therapeutics for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Over the next 2-3 years, the company's expected revenue growth will largely be driven by the advancement of its key pipeline assets and the realization of milestone payments from strategic partnerships.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Progression and Potential Commercialization of Imdusiran (AB-729): Arbutus Biopharma's lead RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic, imdusiran (AB-729), is a primary expected driver of future revenue. The company has reported positive Phase 2a results, demonstrating encouraging durability and a meaningful functional cure rate in a proportion of patients with chronic HBV. Arbutus plans to initiate a placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial for imdusiran in the first half of 2025, which, if successful, could significantly advance the drug towards eventual commercialization and generate substantial revenue.
- Milestone Payments from the Qilu Pharmaceutical Partnership for AB-729: Arbutus has an exclusive licensing agreement and strategic partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the development and commercialization of AB-729 in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. This agreement includes potential payments of up to $245 million upon reaching certain development, regulatory, and sales milestones. As AB-729 progresses through its clinical development and regulatory pathways in these territories, Arbutus stands to receive these non-dilutive milestone payments.
- Advancement of AB-101 (Oral PD-L1 Inhibitor) and AB-836 (Oral Capsid Inhibitor): Arbutus is also developing AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor, and AB-836, an oral capsid inhibitor, both aimed at treating HBV infection. AB-101 is in Phase 1a/1b clinical trials, with preliminary data expected in the first half of 2024 (and 2025 in later updates). AB-836 has shown positive preliminary data in its ongoing Phase 1a/1b clinical trial. Successful progression of these candidates through clinical development could lead to further licensing opportunities, partnerships, or direct commercialization, thereby contributing to future revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Arbutus Biopharma received $21.8 million in net proceeds from its at-the-market (ATM) offering program during Q1 2024, with an additional $22.4 million received in April 2024, totaling $44.2 million from this program.
- The company did not anticipate utilizing its "at-the-market" program in 2025.
- As of September 30, 2025, Arbutus Biopharma had 192.0 million common shares issued and outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- Arbutus Biopharma recognized $10.4 million of previously deferred revenue during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, following the termination of its license agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
- In March 2026, Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences announced a global settlement with Moderna, which includes a $950 million upfront payment due in July 2026 and a potential additional $1.3 billion contingent on a favorable appellate ruling.
Capital Expenditures
- Arbutus Biopharma's capital expenditures were $86,000 for the trailing twelve months as of March 6, 2026.
- The company recorded $12.6 million of restructuring costs year-to-date as of November 11, 2025, which included exiting its headquarters and discontinuing in-house research.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | Arbutus Biopharma | 358.2% | 4.7x | -17.7% | 97.6% | 5.0% | — |
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | 356.9% | -4.5x | 0.7% | 326.9% | 146.1% | +141pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 8.1% | 55.6% | 91.6% | CAH 507% · MCK 390% · COR 176% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.3% | 22.4% | 7.1% | HIMS 212% · RDNT 120% · DGX 100% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 13.7% | 21.0% | 1.0% | THC 276% · NHC 212% · EHC 179% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 58.5% | -2.5% | -2.4% | OSCR 80% · HQY 52% · ELV 8% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 11.3% | 12.9% | -18.2% | UFPT 361% · GKOS 294% · TMDX 180% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -9.5% | 10.3% | -37.3% | LQDA 975% · XERS 679% · KNSA 537% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 29.2% | 17.3% | -41.2% | LNTH 248% · HAE 61% · MMSI 26% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.2% | -13.1% | -74.5% | AXGN 264% · MEDP 189% · NTRA 168% |
| Biotechnology ← | 364 | -24.2% | -34.6% | -81.5% | ELVN 1194% · TRVI 1125% · DNTH 995% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -23.7% | -52.4% | -82.9% | VEEV -5% · DOCS -52% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 772 |
| Op Inc LTM | -219 |
| FCF LTM | -108 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -283 |
| CFO LTM | -100 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -242 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 185.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -18.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -50.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -225.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -30.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -221.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -30.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -230.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/03/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.58 | $4.49 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -20.2% | -18.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.4% | 46.2% |
| Downside Capture | 127.27 | 149.27 |
| Upside Capture | 52.74 | 112.57 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 18.9% | 33.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Up Beta | 1.87 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | -1.05 | -0.32 | 0.23 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0.53 |
| Up Capture | -21% | -9% | 64% | 45% | 116% | 150% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 60 | 118 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 163% | 133% | 90% | 68% | 127% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 59 | 120 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -20.8% | 46.2% | -0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.6% | 16.9% | 1.31 | 36.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 37.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 13.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -20.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 16.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 25.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -1.6% | 53.0% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.3% | 15.4% | 0.35 | 30.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 31.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | -5.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 21.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | 1.5% | 85.2% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.2% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 19.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 21.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 15.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -1.7% | 3.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2026 | 0.0% | -2.6% | -0.5% |
| 3/23/2026 | 4.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -5.8% | -11.8% | 2.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 17.6% |
| 5/14/2025 | -0.9% | 0.6% | 12.2% |
| 3/27/2025 | -2.4% | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | 1.8% | -2.7% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.9% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -6.9% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 19.0% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -1.7% | 3.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2026 | 0.0% | -2.6% | -0.5% |
| 3/23/2026 | 4.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -5.8% | -11.8% | 2.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 17.6% |
| 5/14/2025 | -0.9% | 0.6% | 12.2% |
| 3/27/2025 | -2.4% | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | 1.8% | -2.7% | 0.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.0% | -8.1% | -8.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.1% | -6.9% | 1.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 5.6% | 24.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | -2.8% | -4.9% | -10.4% |
| 1/8/2024 | -1.6% | -7.2% | -0.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.6% | -4.8% | 9.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | -1.0% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| 3/2/2023 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% |
| 1/5/2023 | 0.0% | 19.0% | 28.3% |
| 11/9/2022 | -0.8% | 13.4% | 10.6% |
| 8/4/2022 | 3.3% | 1.6% | -6.9% |
| 5/5/2022 | 2.4% | -17.3% | 8.4% |
| 3/3/2022 | -4.5% | 3.2% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.8% | -9.6% | 7.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 10.1% | 15.6% | 24.6% |
| 5/5/2021 | -11.1% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
| 3/4/2021 | -13.7% | 0.0% | -5.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | -6.2% | 16.7% | 31.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.9% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -6.9% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 19.0% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/04/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/05/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 230.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Settlement Payment | Reported | 178.70 Mil | ||||||
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.