Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $73.93 | Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $73.93Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -36% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 458% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -86% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.2% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% Key risksARWR key risks include [1] a high-stakes patent dispute with Ionis Pharmaceuticals over its drug plozasiran, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is 0.0% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -36% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 458% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -86% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.2% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% |
| Key risksARWR key risks include [1] a high-stakes patent dispute with Ionis Pharmaceuticals over its drug plozasiran, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) stock has gained about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Advancements in Commercial-Stage Product REDEMPLO (Plozasiran) and Global Regulatory Progress. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals demonstrated strong commercial momentum for REDEMPLO (plozasiran) in the U.S., with total prescriptions exceeding 400 and experiencing over 40% growth in the last four weeks leading up to the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on May 7, 2026. Approximately 180 patients had received at least one shipment of the drug. Concurrently, the company achieved significant global regulatory milestones, including the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approval of REDEMPLO in May 2026 and a positive opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) in Europe in April 2026, recommending its approval for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). These developments underscore the expanding market access and commercial potential of their flagship product.
2. Positive Clinical Trial Updates Across the Pipeline and Strategic Licensing Agreement. Arrowhead reported encouraging interim clinical data for its RNAi-based obesity candidates, ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, with ARO-INHBE showing a -9.4% weight loss at week 16 when combined with tirzepatide in obese diabetic patients, representing an approximate two-fold improvement over tirzepatide alone (-4.8%). Furthermore, the company solidified its pipeline strategy by entering into an exclusive worldwide license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for ARO-PNPLA3, its clinical-stage therapeutic for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). This deal included an upfront payment of $25 million to Arrowhead, with eligibility for up to $975 million in future development, regulatory, and sales milestone payments, along with royalties.
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1. Advancements in Commercial-Stage Product REDEMPLO (Plozasiran) and Global Regulatory Progress. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals demonstrated strong commercial momentum for REDEMPLO (plozasiran) in the U.S., with total prescriptions exceeding 400 and experiencing over 40% growth in the last four weeks leading up to the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on May 7, 2026. Approximately 180 patients had received at least one shipment of the drug. Concurrently, the company achieved significant global regulatory milestones, including the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approval of REDEMPLO in May 2026 and a positive opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) in Europe in April 2026, recommending its approval for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). These developments underscore the expanding market access and commercial potential of their flagship product.
2. Positive Clinical Trial Updates Across the Pipeline and Strategic Licensing Agreement. Arrowhead reported encouraging interim clinical data for its RNAi-based obesity candidates, ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, with ARO-INHBE showing a -9.4% weight loss at week 16 when combined with tirzepatide in obese diabetic patients, representing an approximate two-fold improvement over tirzepatide alone (-4.8%). Furthermore, the company solidified its pipeline strategy by entering into an exclusive worldwide license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for ARO-PNPLA3, its clinical-stage therapeutic for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). This deal included an upfront payment of $25 million to Arrowhead, with eligibility for up to $975 million in future development, regulatory, and sales milestone payments, along with royalties.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.6% change in ARWR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 69.33 | 73.93 | 6.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 829 | 622 | -25.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 11.5 | 16.9 | 46.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 142 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 57.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.9% | 45.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.4% change in ARWR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.39 | 73.93 | 74.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 573 | 622 | 8.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.3 | 16.9 | 64.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 142 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 71.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 37.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 0.3% | 30.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 432.3% change in ARWR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 24780.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.89 | 73.93 | 432.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 622 | 24780.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 693.7 | 16.9 | -97.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 125 | 142 | -12.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 432.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 423.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.0% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 108.8% change in ARWR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.41 | 73.93 | 108.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 278 | 622 | 123.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 13.5 | 16.9 | 25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 142 | -25.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 108.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 105.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.0% | 33.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARWR Return | -14% | -39% | -25% | -39% | 253% | 17% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 22% | -3% | -8% | 19% | 5% | 56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARWR Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 63% | 48% | 42% | 60% | 32% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARWR Max Drawdown | -24% | -58% | -48% | -42% | -47% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -23% | -32% | -26% | -35% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ALNY, IONS, MRNA, SRPT, VRTX. See ARWR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 384 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1274 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -52.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 111.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ARWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1274 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -82.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 467.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 444 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -78.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 358.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1307 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1088.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3905 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -52.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 111.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. The company's products in pipeline includes ARO-AAT, a RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic candidate that is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of liver diseases associated with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency; ARO-APOC3, which is in phase 2b and one phase 3 clinical trial to treat hypertriglyceridemia; ARO-ANG3 that is in Phase 2b clinical trial to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3; ARO-HSD, which is in Phase 1/2a clinical trial to treat liver diseases; ARO-ENaC, which is in a Phase 1/2a clinical trial to reduce production of the epithelial sodium channel alpha subunit in the airways of the lung; ARO-C3 for the treatment of complement-mediated disease that is in Phase 1/2a clinical trial; ARO-Lung2 for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder; ARO-DUX4 for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy; ARO-XDH to treat uncontrolled gout; ARO-COV for the treatment of COVID-19 and other pulmonary-borne pathogens; and ARO-HIF2, which is in phase 1b clinical trial to treat clear cell renal cell carcinoma. It is also involved in the development of JNJ-3989, a subcutaneously administered RNAi therapeutic candidate to treat chronic hepatitis B virus infection; Olpasiran to reduce the production of apolipoprotein A; and ARO-AMG1 for treating genetically validated cardiovascular targets. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has a license and research collaboration agreement with Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop ARO-JNJ1, ARO-JNJ2, and ARO-JNJ3 RNAi therapeutics for liver-expressed targets; and license and research collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. to develop RNAi therapeutic candidate as a treatment for liver disease. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is:
- Like Moderna (MRNA) but for RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics, developing a range of treatments based on a cutting-edge RNA platform.
- Similar to CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) for RNAi drug development, applying a foundational genetic technology across multiple intractable diseases.
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- ARO-AAT: An RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic candidate for liver diseases associated with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency.
- ARO-APOC3: An RNAi therapeutic candidate to treat hypertriglyceridemia.
- ARO-ANG3: An RNAi therapeutic candidate designed to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3.
- ARO-HSD: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of liver diseases.
- ARO-ENaC: An RNAi therapeutic candidate to reduce production of the epithelial sodium channel alpha subunit in the airways of the lung.
- ARO-C3: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of complement-mediated disease.
- ARO-Lung2: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder.
- ARO-DUX4: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy.
- ARO-XDH: An RNAi therapeutic candidate to treat uncontrolled gout.
- ARO-COV: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for the treatment of COVID-19 and other pulmonary-borne pathogens.
- ARO-HIF2: An RNAi therapeutic candidate to treat clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
- JNJ-3989: A subcutaneously administered RNAi therapeutic candidate for chronic hepatitis B virus infection, developed with Janssen Pharmaceuticals.
- Olpasiran: An RNAi therapeutic candidate designed to reduce the production of apolipoprotein A.
- ARO-AMG1: An RNAi therapeutic candidate for treating genetically validated cardiovascular targets.
- Janssen Collaboration RNAi Therapeutics (ARO-JNJ1, ARO-JNJ2, ARO-JNJ3): A portfolio of RNAi therapeutics for liver-expressed targets, developed in collaboration with Janssen Pharmaceuticals.
- Takeda Collaboration RNAi Therapeutic: An RNAi therapeutic candidate being developed as a treatment for liver disease in collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceuticals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) primarily operates in a business-to-business model, focusing on the development of RNAi therapeutic candidates and entering into collaboration and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. Therefore, its major customers are other companies rather than individuals.
The major customer companies identified are:
- Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, NYSE: JNJ)
- Takeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. (a subsidiary of Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, NYSE: TAK)
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Christopher Anzalone, President, CEO and Chairman of the Board
Christopher Anzalone has served as President, CEO, and Director of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals since December 1, 2007, and now also serves as Chairman of the Board. Before joining Arrowhead, he was the founder and CEO of Benet Group LLC, a private equity firm that focused on creating and building nano-biotechnology companies from university-generated science. Prior to Benet Group, he was a partner at Galway Partners, LLC, another private equity firm, where he was responsible for sourcing, structuring, and building new business ventures.
Daniel Apel, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel Apel became Arrowhead's Chief Financial Officer in May 2025. He previously served as Global Head of Financial Planning and Analysis at Walgreens Boots Alliance from 2019 through 2024. Prior to Walgreens, he spent nearly 20 years at Bayer, holding various significant financial roles, including Chief Financial Officer for Bayer U.S. (2016-2019), Chief Financial Officer for Bayer Canada, and global Head of Accounting for the Bayer Healthcare Segment. Mr. Apel has also served on the boards of the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) and the Organization for International Investment, and as a Trustee for the Health Institute of New Jersey.
James Hamilton, Chief Medical Officer, Head of R&D
Dr. James Hamilton joined Arrowhead in 2013 and became Chief Medical Officer and Head of Research and Development in February 2025. His previous roles at Arrowhead included Medical Director, VP of Clinical Development, and Chief of Discovery and Translational Medicine. Before joining Arrowhead, Dr. Hamilton was CEO of several RNAi therapeutic delivery startups in 2005. He also founded NanoValent Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and was formerly Chief Executive Officer at Calando Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Dr. Hamilton led the clinical development of ARO-HBV (licensed to Janssen) and ARO-AAT (licensed to Takeda), and was involved in Arrowhead's in-licensing of Novartis' RNAi assets and out-licensing of ARO-LPA to Amgen.
Patrick O'Brien, Chief Operating Officer
Patrick O'Brien joined Arrowhead as General Counsel in December 2014 and was appointed Chief Operating Officer in July 2022. He has over 25 years of experience in the healthcare legal field. From 2012 to 2014, he served as Group Vice President of Law at Shire. He was also a partner with the international law firm Holland & Knight LLP and co-founded O'Brien Gould PLLC in 2010, which later joined Holland & Knight. Earlier in his career (2001-2009), Mr. O'Brien held several legal roles with Johnson & Johnson, including Vice President of Law for J&J's Centocor Ortho-Biotech unit, and started as Regulatory Counsel with the United States Food & Drug Administration.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' business are primarily concentrated in the inherent uncertainties of drug development and commercialization.
- Clinical Trial Success and Regulatory Approval Risks: As a biotechnology company with an extensive pipeline of drug candidates in various stages of clinical trials, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals faces substantial risk regarding the successful completion of these trials and subsequent regulatory approvals. Even promising candidates in early phases often fail to reach the market. The success or failure of drugs like plozasiran, which is nearing an FDA decision, is critical for the company's future value. Delays or failures in obtaining regulatory approvals would significantly impact the company's ability to bring new treatments to market and could erode investor confidence.
- High Research and Development (R&D) Expenses and Financial Sustainability: Developing pharmaceutical products, especially RNAi therapeutics, is a time-consuming and costly endeavor. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals incurs substantial R&D expenses, and while the company has a strong cash reserve, partly bolstered by collaboration deals, there is a risk that these escalating operational costs may not yield profitable products. The company has experienced revenue volatility and operational losses in the past, and its long-term financial health is dependent on converting these significant R&D investments into commercial success.
- Competition and Intellectual Property Litigation: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals operates in a highly competitive biopharmaceutical industry where numerous companies are developing treatments for similar indications. The company must continuously innovate and protect its intellectual property to maintain a competitive edge. A notable risk in this area is a patent infringement lawsuit filed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals against Arrowhead concerning plozasiran. Such legal challenges, even if they don't delay regulatory decisions, could complicate the commercialization of key drug candidates and introduce financial and headline risks.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable market sizes for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' main products:
-
ARO-AAT (for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency - AATD):
- The global alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency treatment market was valued at USD 2.6 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.2 billion by 2032, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.1% from 2024 to 2032.
- Another estimate places the global AATD market at USD 3.8 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 12.7 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 12.8%.
- The U.S. Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency market was valued at USD 0.98 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 2.61 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 13.03% from 2026-2033.
-
ARO-APOC3 (for Hypertriglyceridemia):
- The global hypertriglyceridemia market was valued at approximately USD 10.16 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 14.55 billion by 2029, exhibiting a CAGR of around 4.59%.
- The global hypertriglyceridemia therapeutics market was valued at USD 11.821 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 15.555.63 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.0%.
- For severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG), the treatment market is valued at USD 950 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3.61 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 14.3%.
-
ARO-HSD (for Liver Diseases, potentially including Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis - NASH):
- The global non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) drugs market is valued at USD 7.48 billion in 2024 and is poised to reach USD 71.69 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 22.8% during the forecast period.
- Another report indicates the global non-alcoholic steatohepatitis treatment market size is calculated at USD 7.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 92.5 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 28.14% between 2025 and 2034.
- The NASH market size in the seven major markets (7MM: US, EU4, UK, and Japan) was approximately USD 2,114 million in 2023, with the US accounting for approximately USD 1,519 million.
-
ARO-C3 (for Complement-mediated Disease):
- The global complement inhibitors market was valued at USD 25.20 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 273.59 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 15.7% from 2024-2032.
- The global next-generation complement therapeutics market size was approximately USD 6.1 billion in 2023 and is predicted to grow to around USD 25.33 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 15.30% between 2023 and 2033.
- The global C5 Complement Inhibitors Drug Market is valued at USD 9.8 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 16.7 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 9.3%.
-
ARO-Lung2 (for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder - COPD):
- The global chronic obstructive pulmonary disease market size is estimated at USD 29.87 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.60 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.80%.
- The global chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drugs market size was valued at USD 29.30 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 50.57 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.25%.
- The COPD market across the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) is forecast to grow from USD 11.6 billion in 2023 to USD 30.2 billion by 2033, representing a CAGR of 10%.
-
ARO-DUX4 (for Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy - FSHD):
- The global Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) Market was valued at USD 210 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 482 million by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.6%.
- The 7 major facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) reached a value of USD 32.2 million in 2024 and are expected to reach USD 61.4 million by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.12%.
-
ARO-XDH (to treat uncontrolled Gout):
- The global gout therapeutics market was valued at USD 3.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.96 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.5%.
- The global gout disease treatment market size was approximately USD 2.76 billion in 2023 and is predicted to grow to around USD 5.53 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of roughly 8.00% between 2024 and 2032.
- North America held the largest market share in the Gout Market, accounting for USD 1.80 billion in 2022 and expected to exhibit a 12.03% CAGR during the study period.
-
ARO-HIF2 (to treat Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma):
- The global renal cell carcinoma market was valued at USD 754.63 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1193.72 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.9%.
- The renal cell carcinoma market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) reached a value of USD 4.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 7.6 billion by 2035, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.32% during 2025-2035.
-
JNJ-3989 (for Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection):
- The chronic hepatitis B therapeutics market size in seven pharmaceutical markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) is expected to reach USD 3.2 billion by 2034.
- The global chronic hepatitis B market reached a value of USD 2,764.4 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,482.3 million by 2035, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 2.13% during 2025-2035.
- The chronic hepatitis B market in the 7MM was valued at approximately USD 1,603 million in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of commercial product launches, strategic collaboration milestone payments, and the advancement of its robust RNAi therapeutic pipeline into larger markets and new disease areas.
- Commercialization and Global Expansion of REDEMPLO (Plozasiran) for FCS: The recent FDA approval of REDEMPLO (plozasiran) on November 18, 2025, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) marks Arrowhead's transition into a commercial-stage company. The independent U.S. launch, characterized by encouraging early prescription trends, and anticipated international approvals and launches in Canada, China, the EU, and the U.K. during 2026, are expected to generate direct product revenue.
- Milestone Payments from Existing and New Collaborations: A significant portion of Arrowhead's past revenue has come from collaboration and licensing agreements. The company has received substantial milestone payments from partners like Sarepta Therapeutics and Novartis. Future revenue growth is anticipated from additional development, regulatory, and sales milestones, such as potential payments of up to $2 billion from the Novartis collaboration for ARO-SNCA, as pipeline candidates advance through clinical development and achieve regulatory successes.
- Expansion of Plozasiran to Severe Hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG): Beyond FCS, the company is progressing plozasiran for the treatment of severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG), a significantly larger market opportunity. Top-line results from the Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 studies are expected in Q3 2026, with a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) planned for Q4 2026 and potential approval in Q4 2027. This expansion represents a multi-billion dollar commercial opportunity for plozasiran.
- Advancement and Potential Monetization of the Cardiometabolic Pipeline: Arrowhead's deep cardiometabolic pipeline, including ARO-DIMER-PA for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease due to mixed hyperlipidemia and obesity programs like ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, holds significant revenue potential. ARO-DIMER-PA, which entered Phase 1/2a in January 2026 with initial data expected in the second half of 2026, targets a large patient population (potentially 20 million in the U.S.). Encouraging early data from the obesity programs also suggests future opportunities for new partnerships, milestone payments, or eventual product sales.
- Expansion into Central Nervous System (CNS) and New Tissue Targets: The company's strategy to expand its RNAi applications beyond the liver into new cell types, including the central nervous system (CNS) with candidates like ARO-MAPT, aims to unlock new therapeutic areas and market opportunities. Initial data for ARO-MAPT is expected by the end of Q3 2026, which could validate its subcutaneous platform for CNS delivery and pave the way for future pipeline advancements and collaborations in this space.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years) for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Share Repurchases
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals did not report any significant share repurchases as of September 30, 2025.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals increased by approximately 11.67% in 2025, 12.21% in 2024, and 1.26% in 2023.
- In January 2026, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals issued $700 million in 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032.
- The company has engaged in capital market transactions, including public offerings of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
Inbound Investments
- In Q1 2026 (ending December 31, 2025), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals secured $1.33 billion in gross proceeds from various transactions.
- This included a $200 million upfront payment from Novartis and a $200 million milestone payment from Sarepta.
- The company also raised $930 million from concurrent public offerings of convertible senior notes and common stock as part of these proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' capital expenditures for the last twelve months (LTM) as of December 22, 2025, were $38.9 million.
- The company's capital expenditure peaked in 2022.
- For the fiscal year 2025, capital expenditure was $17.3 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 74.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,194 |
| Op Inc LTM | -110 |
| FCF LTM | 29 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -292 |
| CFO LTM | 69 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -190 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 63.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -16.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -26.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -42.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -48.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.4 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/CFO | -0.9 |
| Total Yield | -0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 74.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.1% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA219947 | REDEMPLO | plozasiran sodium | solution | 11182025 | 57.4% | 79.6% | 79.6% | 79.6% | 79.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing and commercialization of RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics | 243 | 138 | 88 | ||
| Total | 243 | 138 | 88 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing and commercialization of RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics | 1,140 | 766 | |||
| Total | 1,140 | 766 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $72.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/06/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $65.06 | $50.08 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.7% | 45.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.5% | 65.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.76 | 0.45 |
| Upside Capture | 175.56 | 271.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.1% | 33.5% |
ARWR Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.39 | 2.21 | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.79 | 1.60 |
| Up Beta | 3.30 | 2.86 | 2.27 | 2.62 | 2.27 | 1.79 |
| Down Beta | -7.00 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 0.58 | 0.82 | 1.57 |
| Up Capture | 179% | 251% | 197% | 365% | 661% | 354% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 32 | 66 | 143 | 371 |
| Down Capture | -91% | 175% | 142% | 118% | 102% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | 106 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 462.4% | 65.9% | 2.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.9% | 15.4% | 0.30 | 30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 33.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 17.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 26.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 0.8% | 64.9% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.9% | 14.6% | 0.16 | 37.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 38.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 25.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR | 28.8% | 74.1% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 16.5% | 0.46 | 34.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -6.7% | ||
| 2/5/2026 | -0.2% | -3.5% | -6.1% |
| 11/25/2025 | 23.3% | 38.2% | 43.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.2% | 16.9% | 69.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 9.4% | 12.7% | 19.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -5.2% | 2.6% | -20.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | 24.2% | 9.8% | -9.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | -9.4% | -12.3% | -15.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| # Negative | 15 | 8 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 5.1% | 19.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -6.4% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 24.2% | 38.2% | 69.2% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -17.9% | -23.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/29/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton, James C | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 75.00 | 10,000 | 750,000 | 17,021,850 | Form |
| 2 | Apel, Daniel Joseph | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 71.35 | 13,095 | 934,285 | 11,622,735 | Form |
| 3 | Hamilton, James C | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 64.19 | 10,000 | 641,900 | 15,210,334 | Form |
| 4 | O'Brien, Patrick | COO | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 63.11 | 49,493 | 3,123,349 | 29,969,968 | Form |
| 5 | Hamilton, James C | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 63.11 | 40,164 | 2,534,661 | 10,851,890 | Form |
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