Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.82 | Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.82Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23258% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 63x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 50x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 315%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 84% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% | |
| Key risksARWR key risks include [1] a high-stakes patent dispute with Ionis Pharmaceuticals over its drug plozasiran, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23258% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 63x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 50x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 315%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 191% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 84% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Key risksARWR key risks include [1] a high-stakes patent dispute with Ionis Pharmaceuticals over its drug plozasiran, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARWR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 194% stock movement for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. FDA Approval of REDEMPLO (plozasiran)
On November 18, 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved REDEMPLO (plozasiran), Arrowhead's small interfering RNA (siRNA) medicine, as an adjunct to diet for reducing triglycerides in adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). This marked Arrowhead's first FDA-approved medicine, signifying a pivotal transition for the company into a commercial-stage entity and validating its proprietary RNAi platform.
2. Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Plozasiran in Severe Hypertriglyceridemia
Following the FDA approval, plozasiran received Breakthrough Therapy designation for severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG). This designation is anticipated to expedite the development and regulatory review process for a significantly larger patient population, potentially transforming plozasiran into a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARWR Return | 21% | -14% | -39% | -25% | -39% | 244% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 96% | 15% | 22% | -3% | -8% | 19% | 190% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARWR Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 63% | 48% | 42% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARWR Max Drawdown | -68% | -24% | -58% | -48% | -42% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -29% | -23% | -32% | -26% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALNY, IONS, MRNA, SRPT, VRTX. See ARWR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 326.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2330.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4171 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ALNY, IONS, MRNA, ACSB, AIXC
In The Past
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -76.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/5/2021. A -76.6% loss requires a 326.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARWR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,308 |
| Op Inc LTM | -89 |
| FCF LTM | -76 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -340 |
| CFO LTM | -33 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -262 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 25.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -33.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -39.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -45.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | -5.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | -1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing and commercialization of RNAi therapeutics | 243 | 138 | 88 | ||
| Total | 243 | 138 | 88 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing and commercialization of RNAi therapeutics | 1,140 | 766 | |||
| Total | 1,140 | 766 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/25/2025 | 23.3% | 38.2% | |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.2% | 16.9% | 69.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 9.4% | 12.7% | 19.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -5.2% | 2.6% | -20.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | 24.2% | 9.8% | -9.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | -9.4% | -12.3% | -15.8% |
| 5/9/2024 | -10.7% | 1.1% | -0.8% |
| 11/29/2023 | -26.8% | -17.9% | 5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 8 |
| # Negative | 14 | 8 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 5.1% | 14.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -6.4% | -14.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.2% | 38.2% | 69.2% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -17.9% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11252025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11262024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11282022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hamilton James C | Chief Medical Officer | 9162025 | Sell | 30.00 | 15,000 | 450,000 | 6,963,660 | Form |
| 1 | Hamilton James C | Chief Medical Officer | 9042025 | Sell | 25.00 | 15,000 | 375,000 | 6,178,050 | Form |
| 2 | Hamilton James C | Chief Medical Officer | 8152025 | Sell | 20.00 | 611 | 12,220 | 5,430,220 | Form |
| 3 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | Chief Executive Officer | 4112025 | Sell | 9.93 | 35,305 | 350,579 | 39,988,825 | Form |
| 4 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | 1272025 | Sell | 21.00 | 959 | 20,139 | 751,401 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |