Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Market Price (10/30/2026): $4.22 | Market Cap: $646.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Market Price (10/30/2026): $4.22Market Cap: $646.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1079% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 81% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% Key risksABUS key risks include [1] the binary outcome of its high-stakes LNP patent litigation against Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech and [2] a limited financial runway with cash projected to run out by late 2026. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1079% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 81% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -91% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Key risksABUS key risks include [1] the binary outcome of its high-stakes LNP patent litigation against Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech and [2] a limited financial runway with cash projected to run out by late 2026. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. A significant insider share sale by a major shareholder likely contributed to negative investor sentiment. Roivant Sciences Ltd., identified as a director and 10% owner, sold 8,967,383 shares of Arbutus Biopharma common stock for a total value of $44,836,915 at a price of $5.00 per share on October 5, 2026. This substantial insider selling event, occurring shortly after the specified period, can signal a lack of confidence from a key stakeholder, putting downward pressure on the stock, which experienced a 14.09% decline over the three months leading up to October 7, 2026.
2. The completion of a $230 million modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer failed to sustain investor confidence above the repurchase price. Arbutus Biopharma initiated a tender offer on August 24, 2026, to repurchase up to $230 million of its common shares at prices between $5.00 and $5.75 per share, expiring on September 29, 2026. On September 30, 2026, the company announced it would repurchase 46 million shares at $5.00 each, cancelling approximately 23% of outstanding shares. While the announcement initially caused the stock to gain momentum, its subsequent trading below the $5.00 repurchase price, settling around $4.45 by October 7, 2026, suggests that the market perceived the tender offer as insufficient to bolster the stock's intrinsic value or future prospects. This indicated a potential misjudgment of market expectations or persistent underlying concerns not addressed by the capital return.
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Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. A significant insider share sale by a major shareholder likely contributed to negative investor sentiment. Roivant Sciences Ltd., identified as a director and 10% owner, sold 8,967,383 shares of Arbutus Biopharma common stock for a total value of $44,836,915 at a price of $5.00 per share on October 5, 2026. This substantial insider selling event, occurring shortly after the specified period, can signal a lack of confidence from a key stakeholder, putting downward pressure on the stock, which experienced a 14.09% decline over the three months leading up to October 7, 2026.
2. The completion of a $230 million modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer failed to sustain investor confidence above the repurchase price. Arbutus Biopharma initiated a tender offer on August 24, 2026, to repurchase up to $230 million of its common shares at prices between $5.00 and $5.75 per share, expiring on September 29, 2026. On September 30, 2026, the company announced it would repurchase 46 million shares at $5.00 each, cancelling approximately 23% of outstanding shares. While the announcement initially caused the stock to gain momentum, its subsequent trading below the $5.00 repurchase price, settling around $4.45 by October 7, 2026, suggests that the market perceived the tender offer as insufficient to bolster the stock's intrinsic value or future prospects. This indicated a potential misjudgment of market expectations or persistent underlying concerns not addressed by the capital return.
3. Lingering concerns over the company's long-term profitability and substantial negative free cash flow likely overshadowed a one-time patent settlement gain. Despite receiving $178.4 million on July 8, 2026, as its share of a $950 million noncontingent patent settlement payment from Moderna, Arbutus Biopharma remains a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with ongoing financial challenges. The company reported a substantial negative free cash flow of -$80.24 million as of Q3 2026 and earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 111.7% per year for the next three years. This financial outlook, coupled with the immediate allocation of a significant portion of the settlement cash to the share buyback rather than directly funding pipeline advancements, may have led investors to question the company's sustained profitability and operational stability beyond one-off events.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.8% change in ABUS stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.80 | 4.28 | -10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 191 | 182 | -5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 84.0% | 84.2% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.8 | 5.5 | -4.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 194 | 197 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 13.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 42.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in ABUS stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -92.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.50 | 4.28 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14 | 182 | 1190.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 61.5 | 4.7 | -92.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 197 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 23.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.1% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.7% change in ABUS stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -91.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.54 | 4.28 | -5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15 | 182 | 1078.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 56.4 | 4.7 | -91.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 197 | -3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.4% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.9% | 31.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 110.8% change in ABUS stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 672.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.03 | 4.28 | 110.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24 | 182 | 672.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.3 | 4.7 | -67.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 166 | 197 | -15.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 110.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABUS | 110.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 49.7% | 34.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABUS Return | 10% | -40% | 7% | 31% | 47% | -10% | 22% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -12% | -19% | -27% | 74% | 141% | 189% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABUS Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 60% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABUS Max Drawdown | -48% | -53% | -45% | -30% | -20% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -43% | -44% | -49% | -43% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GILD, IONS, ARWR, VIR, MRNA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Arbutus Biopharma's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ABUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -67.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 203.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 876 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -72.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 263.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 882 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Arbutus Biopharma's stock fell -15.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS)
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of novel therapeutic solutions for significant viral diseases. Its primary focus is on addressing chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, a global health challenge. Additionally, the company is engaged in research and development for treatments against SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, aiming to tackle emerging and established viral threats.
The company's leading product pipeline centers on chronic HBV infection, featuring multiple candidates with distinct mechanisms of action. Key among these is AB-729, a subcutaneously delivered RNA interference product designed to inhibit viral replication and reduce viral antigens. Another significant candidate is AB-836, an oral capsid inhibitor aimed at suppressing HBV DNA replication. Arbutus also explores other approaches, including AB-161, an oral HBV RNA destabilizer, and AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor to enhance the patient's immune response against HBV.
Beyond its robust HBV pipeline, Arbutus Biopharma is also developing small molecule antiviral medicines specifically for coronaviruses, including therapies for COVID-19. Through these efforts, the company targets patients suffering from chronic Hepatitis B infection and those affected by various coronavirus infections. Arbutus actively collaborates with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to advance its research and clinical programs, aiming to bring innovative medicines to patients in the biopharmaceutical market.
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Like a smaller, early-stage Gilead Sciences focused on chronic viral infections like Hepatitis B.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals for Hepatitis B, especially given its lead RNA interference drug candidate.
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- AB-729: A subcutaneously delivered RNA interference product candidate targeting hepatocytes to inhibit viral replication and reduce HBV antigens for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.
- AB-836: An oral capsid inhibitor designed to suppress HBV DNA replication for chronic HBV infection.
- AB-161: An oral HBV RNA destabilizer program aimed at reducing HBsAg and other viral proteins for chronic HBV infection.
- AB-101: An oral PD-L1 inhibitor program intended to reawaken patients' HBV-specific immune response for chronic HBV infection.
- Small molecule antiviral medicines: Research and development programs for antiviral medicines to treat coronaviruses, including COVID-19.
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Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapeutics. At its current stage, the company primarily generates revenue through strategic alliances, licensing, research collaborations, and clinical collaboration agreements with other companies rather than selling approved drugs directly to individuals.
Based on the provided information, its major customers and collaborators include:
- Gritstone Oncology, Inc. (Symbol: GRTS)
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Symbol: ALNY)
- Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (Symbol: ASMB)
- Vaccitech plc (Symbol: VACC)
- Talon Therapeutics, Inc.
- Qilu Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd.
- Acuitas Therapeutics, Inc.
- Antios Therapeutics, Inc.
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Lindsay Androski, JD, MBA, CFA
President & CEO and ChairpersonMs. Androski joined Arbutus Biopharma in February 2025 as President and CEO and Chairperson of the Board. She is an MIT-trained biologist with nearly 30 years of experience in biotechnology, law, and academia. Prior to Arbutus, Ms. Androski served in various roles at Roivant, including President and CEO of Roivant Social Ventures and Vice President, Head of Acquisitions. At Roivant, she was responsible for the in-licensing or acquisition of more than 30 therapeutic programs, which led to the launch and incubation of 16 subsidiary biotechs and several successful IPOs. She also currently serves as Special Counsel at Genevant Sciences, focusing on LNP litigation. Ms. Androski has a background as a trial lawyer, including over a decade as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, and as a strategy consultant advising Fortune 100 clients.
Tuan Nguyen, MBA
Chief Financial OfficerMr. Nguyen joined Arbutus Biopharma in March 2025 as Chief Financial Officer. He brings over 15 years of strategic finance experience within biopharma companies at various stages of development. Throughout his career, Mr. Nguyen has raised more than $2 billion in capital and successfully closed a partnership deal with AstraZeneca valued at $2.2 billion. Most recently, he served as CFO at Kinevant Sciences, where he oversaw finance and operational functions to support growth opportunities. His prior experience includes senior finance leadership roles at Adverum Biotechnologies, Intarcia Therapeutics, FibroGen, and UCB.
Andrew J. Sung, JD
General CounselMr. Sung joined Arbutus Biopharma in April 2025 as General Counsel. He has over 20 years of legal experience, advising companies on corporate matters, intellectual property, compliance, contracting, litigation, and employment issues. An MIT-trained chemist, Mr. Sung has executed multiple life sciences transactions, including over $24 billion in M&A deals and licensing and collaboration agreements exceeding $4 billion in potential payments. Before joining Arbutus, he was General Counsel of Harmonix Music Systems, Inc. for several years and later worked at Epic Games, Inc. following Epic's acquisition of Harmonix. He also served as a Life Sciences Corporate Associate at Ropes & Gray LLP and a Senior Consultant in the Life Sciences practice at Cap Gemini Ernst & Young.
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The key risks to Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) primarily revolve around the inherent challenges of drug development, ongoing intellectual property disputes, and intense market competition.
1. Clinical Development and Regulatory Risk
Arbutus Biopharma is a clinical-stage company with no approved products, meaning its success hinges entirely on the progression and approval of its therapeutic candidates. The company's pipeline for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and coronaviruses is in early to mid-stage clinical trials (e.g., AB-729 in Phase 2a leading to Phase 2b, AB-101 in Phase 1a/1b). There is a significant risk that these therapies may fail to meet clinical efficacy or safety endpoints, delaying or preventing regulatory approval. Arbutus has a history of discontinuing development for drug candidates due to safety concerns or unsatisfactory results, such as AB-506 which was terminated after acute hepatitis cases in a Phase 1a trial, and ARB-1467 and AB-452 which also faced setbacks. Furthermore, AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor, has been placed on clinical hold by the FDA, pausing its development. Achieving a "functional cure" for chronic HBV is a complex and evolving regulatory target, adding to the uncertainty of clinical success.
2. Intellectual Property and Patent Litigation Risk
Arbutus Biopharma's business model heavily relies on its patented lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology. The company has been involved in extensive, high-stakes patent infringement litigation against major pharmaceutical companies, including Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, concerning the use of its LNP technology in their COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. While Arbutus and Genevant Sciences recently reached a global settlement with Moderna, potentially yielding up to $2.5 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $950 million, other patent disputes are ongoing, notably with Pfizer/BioNTech. Moreover, the European Patent Office recently revoked one of Arbutus's key patents (the '254 Patent), which could impact ongoing cases in Europe. These legal battles are costly, consume substantial resources, and carry binary outcomes that can significantly affect the company's financial stability and strategic positioning.
3. Competition Risk
The markets for treatments of chronic HBV and coronaviruses are highly competitive, with numerous pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies actively developing and commercializing therapies. Arbutus faces competition in recruiting patients for its clinical programs targeting chronic HBV. Established companies with greater financial resources, larger research and development staffs, and more extensive marketing and sales capabilities could develop products that are more effective, safer, or less costly, thereby gaining a competitive advantage. This intense competition could impact Arbutus's ability to successfully develop, gain approval for, and commercialize its product candidates, even if they prove to be safe and effective.
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Addressable Markets for Arbutus Biopharma's Main Products
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) focuses on developing therapeutics for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and small molecule antiviral medicines for coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).
Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) Therapeutics Market
- The market for chronic Hepatitis B therapeutics across the seven major pharmaceutical markets (7MM), which include the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K., and Japan, was valued at approximately USD 1.6 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to US$3.2 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.3% from 2025–2034.
- Within the 7MM, the United States is the largest contributor to the CHB market, with sales of USD 710.11 million in 2024, capturing approximately 72% of the total 7MM market share in the same year.
- Globally, the chronic hepatitis B market was valued at USD 4.6 billion in 2021 and is estimated to reach USD 6.2 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3% from 2022 to 2031. Other estimates place the global market value at USD 2,709.4 million in 2023, expected to reach USD 3,379.3 million by 2034 at a CAGR of 2.03% (2024-2034), or USD 2,764.4 million in 2024, projected to reach USD 3,482.3 million by 2035 at a CAGR of 2.13% (2025-2035).
SARS-CoV-2 and Other Coronaviruses Antiviral Medicines Market
- The global market for specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 experienced rapid growth, increasing from USD 15.23 billion in 2025 to USD 17.83 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 17.1%. This market is further anticipated to grow to USD 33.17 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.8%. North America was the largest regional market for specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 in 2025.
- The global antiviral drugs market, which includes treatments for coronavirus infection, is estimated to grow from USD 69 billion in 2025 to USD 74 billion in 2026 and reach USD 127 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6.1% during the 2026-2035 period. Antiviral drugs for COVID-19 treatment account for 15.7% of this overall antiviral market share.
- The global COVID-19 therapeutics market is expected to grow at a 15.0% CAGR during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035.
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Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ: ABUS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company primarily focused on developing novel therapeutics for chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Over the next 2-3 years, the company's expected revenue growth will largely be driven by the advancement of its key pipeline assets and the realization of milestone payments from strategic partnerships.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Progression and Potential Commercialization of Imdusiran (AB-729): Arbutus Biopharma's lead RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic, imdusiran (AB-729), is a primary expected driver of future revenue. The company has reported positive Phase 2a results, demonstrating encouraging durability and a meaningful functional cure rate in a proportion of patients with chronic HBV. Arbutus plans to initiate a placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial for imdusiran in the first half of 2025, which, if successful, could significantly advance the drug towards eventual commercialization and generate substantial revenue.
- Milestone Payments from the Qilu Pharmaceutical Partnership for AB-729: Arbutus has an exclusive licensing agreement and strategic partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the development and commercialization of AB-729 in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. This agreement includes potential payments of up to $245 million upon reaching certain development, regulatory, and sales milestones. As AB-729 progresses through its clinical development and regulatory pathways in these territories, Arbutus stands to receive these non-dilutive milestone payments.
- Advancement of AB-101 (Oral PD-L1 Inhibitor) and AB-836 (Oral Capsid Inhibitor): Arbutus is also developing AB-101, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor, and AB-836, an oral capsid inhibitor, both aimed at treating HBV infection. AB-101 is in Phase 1a/1b clinical trials, with preliminary data expected in the first half of 2024 (and 2025 in later updates). AB-836 has shown positive preliminary data in its ongoing Phase 1a/1b clinical trial. Successful progression of these candidates through clinical development could lead to further licensing opportunities, partnerships, or direct commercialization, thereby contributing to future revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Arbutus Biopharma received $21.8 million in net proceeds from its at-the-market (ATM) offering program during Q1 2024, with an additional $22.4 million received in April 2024, totaling $44.2 million from this program.
- The company did not anticipate utilizing its "at-the-market" program in 2025.
- As of September 30, 2025, Arbutus Biopharma had 192.0 million common shares issued and outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- Arbutus Biopharma recognized $10.4 million of previously deferred revenue during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, following the termination of its license agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
- In March 2026, Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences announced a global settlement with Moderna, which includes a $950 million upfront payment due in July 2026 and a potential additional $1.3 billion contingent on a favorable appellate ruling.
Capital Expenditures
- Arbutus Biopharma's capital expenditures were $86,000 for the trailing twelve months as of March 6, 2026.
- The company recorded $12.6 million of restructuring costs year-to-date as of November 11, 2025, which included exiting its headquarters and discontinuing in-house research.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 10.9% | 56.7% | 99.4% | CAH 481% · MCK 384% · COR 186% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 44.5% | 48.5% | 14.2% | HIMS 280% · RDNT 137% · DGX 90% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 5.4% | 19.8% | -0.7% | THC 278% · NHC 246% · EHC 173% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 26.9% | 0.0% | -3.0% | OSCR 78% · HQY 53% · ELV 4% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -0.9% | 15.6% | -17.1% | GKOS 430% · UFPT 374% · PLSE 163% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -12.1% | 14.7% | -32.9% | LQDA 1100% · KNSA 839% · LLY 464% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.2% | 5.7% | -37.1% | LNTH 329% · HAE 74% · MMSI 39% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -4.5% | 2.0% | -64.5% | NTRA 281% · AXGN 227% · MEDP 199% |
| Biotechnology ← | 363 | -20.7% | -19.4% | -80.2% | DNTH 1192% · ELVN 1152% · TRVI 1075% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -28.8% | -45.9% | -82.2% | VEEV -2% · DOCS -52% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| Rev LTM | 772 |
| Op Inc LTM | -253 |
| FCF LTM | -139 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -292 |
| CFO LTM | -131 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -244 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 185.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -17.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -50.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -225.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -31.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -221.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -34.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -230.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.28 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/03/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.72 | $4.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -9.4% | -4.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.6% | 45.1% |
| Downside Capture | 76.75 | 134.31 |
| Upside Capture | 59.86 | 108.56 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 13.6% | 31.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.33 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Up Beta | 0.17 | -0.50 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 1.12 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | 0.85 | 1.54 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.90 | 0.56 |
| Up Capture | 3% | 111% | 35% | 70% | 136% | 168% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 31 | 59 | 121 | 356 |
| Down Capture | 95% | 36% | 46% | 96% | 122% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 30 | 59 | 119 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | -6.6% | 45.1% | -0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.3% | 16.5% | 1.32 | 32.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 12.7% | 0.67 | 30.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.2% | 28.4% | 0.03 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 49.5% | 20.6% | 1.83 | -21.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.2% | 14.0% | 0.25 | 13.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 43.4% | -0.69 | 22.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | 1.1% | 52.7% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.7% | 15.3% | 0.37 | 29.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.55 | 30.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 19.5% | 0.36 | -5.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABUS | 3.8% | 85.2% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.0% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 19.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 21.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 15.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -1.7% | 3.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2026 | 0.0% | -2.6% | -0.5% |
| 3/23/2026 | 4.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -5.8% | -11.8% | 2.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 17.6% |
| 5/14/2025 | -0.9% | 0.6% | 12.2% |
| 3/27/2025 | -2.4% | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | 1.8% | -2.7% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.9% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -6.9% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 19.0% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -1.7% | 3.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2026 | 0.0% | -2.6% | -0.5% |
| 3/23/2026 | 4.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -5.8% | -11.8% | 2.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 17.6% |
| 5/14/2025 | -0.9% | 0.6% | 12.2% |
| 3/27/2025 | -2.4% | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | 1.8% | -2.7% | 0.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.0% | -8.1% | -8.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.1% | -6.9% | 1.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 5.6% | 24.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | -2.8% | -4.9% | -10.4% |
| 1/8/2024 | -1.6% | -7.2% | -0.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.6% | -4.8% | 9.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | -1.0% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| 3/2/2023 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% |
| 1/5/2023 | 0.0% | 19.0% | 28.3% |
| 11/9/2022 | -0.8% | 13.4% | 10.6% |
| 8/4/2022 | 3.3% | 1.6% | -6.9% |
| 5/5/2022 | 2.4% | -17.3% | 8.4% |
| 3/3/2022 | -4.5% | 3.2% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.8% | -9.6% | 7.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 10.1% | 15.6% | 24.6% |
| 5/5/2021 | -11.1% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
| 3/4/2021 | -13.7% | 0.0% | -5.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | -6.2% | 16.7% | 31.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.9% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -6.9% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 19.0% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/04/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/05/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 230.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Settlement Payment | Reported | 178.70 Mil | ||||||
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 30, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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