Tearsheet

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $81.73 | Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $81.73
Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 182%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.61, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 182%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.61, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TARS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the stock movement of Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, with XDEMVY net sales reaching approximately $119 million, marking a significant 147% increase year-over-year. The company surpassed revenue estimates, indicating strong commercial success and momentum for its key product.

2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets. The company received favorable attention from analysts, including Mizuho initiating coverage with an "Outperform" recommendation on November 20, 2025. Around November 21, 2025, a price target was notably increased by 7.1% to $86.11. Analysts project strong earnings growth, with forecasts suggesting a 62.58% annual increase.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TARS Return--46%-35%38%173%43%92%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TARS Win Rate100%25%50%67%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TARS Max Drawdown--49%-51%-21%-3%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTARSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven326.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven910 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-26.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven12 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT


In The Past

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -76.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -76.6% loss requires a 326.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS)

Better Bets than Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TARS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TARSVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameTarsus P.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Mkt Price81.88463.13-1.07-11.0746.47
Mkt Cap3.5118.4----60.9
Rev LTM36611,723---0366
Op Inc LTM-87-92----93-92
FCF LTM-633,337----60-60
FCF 3Y Avg-862,064----989
CFO LTM-543,718----60-54
CFO 3Y Avg-812,419----1,169

Growth & Margins

TARSVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameTarsus P.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Rev Chg LTM182.4%10.3%----96.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg324.5%10.5%----167.5%
Rev Chg Q146.7%11.0%----78.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23.9%2.7%----13.3%
Op Mgn LTM-23.9%-0.8%-----12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-308.0%26.2%-----140.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM9.3%1.0%----5.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-14.7%31.7%----8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-237.2%23.1%-----107.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-17.1%28.5%----5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-251.4%19.8%-----115.8%

Valuation

TARSVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameTarsus P.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
Mkt Cap3.5118.4----60.9
P/S6.98.5----7.7
P/EBIT-34.822.4-----6.2
P/E-31.227.2-----2.0
P/CFO-46.926.9-----10.0
Total Yield-3.2%3.7%----0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-9.3%2.3%-----3.5%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-----0.1

Returns

TARSVRTXACSBALPSAPRIBBOTMedian
NameTarsus P.Vertex P.Acesis ALPS Aprinoia.BridgeBi. 
1M Rtn17.3%8.7%----9.9%8.7%
3M Rtn41.9%16.8%---12.5%16.8%
6M Rtn92.0%3.9%----47.9%
12M Rtn62.5%1.3%----31.9%
3Y Rtn370.8%44.1%----207.5%
1M Excs Rtn17.4%8.7%----9.9%8.7%
3M Excs Rtn37.2%11.3%---4.5%11.3%
6M Excs Rtn77.3%-10.8%----33.2%
12M Excs Rtn42.6%-14.6%----14.0%
3Y Excs Rtn317.8%-25.9%----145.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Therapeutics17    
License fees and collaboration revenue 26   
Product sales, net 0   
Total1726   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pharmaceutical products for commercialization  17917258
Total  17917258


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,166,734
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.5%
Average Daily Volume490,687
Days-to-Cover Short Interest14.61
Basic Shares Quantity42,607,717
Short % of Basic Shares16.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022317202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021314202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LINK WILLIAM J PHD 9102025Sell57.0027,1161,545,6128,169,924Form
1Azamian Bobak R.President/CEO and Board Chair8132025Sell50.006,000300,00040,905,300Form
2Mottiwala AzizChief Commercial Officer6112025Sell43.7617,500765,8002,081,094Form
3Azamian Bobak R.President/CEO and Board Chair3262025Sell50.006,000300,00041,205,300Form
4Mottiwala AzizChief Commercial Officer3202025Sell46.293,643168,6343,331,908Form