Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $307.34 | Market Cap: $4.5 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $307.34Market Cap: $4.5 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 137 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 269 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% | Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 137 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 269 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% |
| Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Enhanced Shareholder Returns.
Apple reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended March 28, 2026) on April 30, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $111.2 billion, a 17% increase year over year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $109.66 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.01, up 22% year over year, beating the anticipated $1.95. This strong performance, particularly an iPhone revenue surge of 22% and record Services revenue of $30.98 billion, provided a significant boost to investor confidence. Concurrently, Apple authorized an additional $100 billion share repurchase program and increased its cash dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share, signaling strong financial health and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
2. Sustained Demand for the iPhone 17 Lineup and Services Momentum.
Throughout the specified period, Apple continued to benefit from "extraordinary demand" for its iPhone 17 lineup, as highlighted in the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report. This strong demand contributed to double-digit iPhone revenue growth in both fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026, with iPhone revenue reaching $54.3 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended June 27, 2026). The high-margin Services segment also maintained its growth trajectory, achieving an all-time record of $30.98 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 and growing over 12% year over year to $30.74 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. Furthermore, Apple announced that its installed base of paid subscriptions exceeded 1.5 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, demonstrating continued ecosystem strength and recurring revenue generation.
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Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Enhanced Shareholder Returns.
Apple reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended March 28, 2026) on April 30, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $111.2 billion, a 17% increase year over year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $109.66 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.01, up 22% year over year, beating the anticipated $1.95. This strong performance, particularly an iPhone revenue surge of 22% and record Services revenue of $30.98 billion, provided a significant boost to investor confidence. Concurrently, Apple authorized an additional $100 billion share repurchase program and increased its cash dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share, signaling strong financial health and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
2. Sustained Demand for the iPhone 17 Lineup and Services Momentum.
Throughout the specified period, Apple continued to benefit from "extraordinary demand" for its iPhone 17 lineup, as highlighted in the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report. This strong demand contributed to double-digit iPhone revenue growth in both fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026, with iPhone revenue reaching $54.3 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended June 27, 2026). The high-margin Services segment also maintained its growth trajectory, achieving an all-time record of $30.98 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 and growing over 12% year over year to $30.74 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. Furthermore, Apple announced that its installed base of paid subscriptions exceeded 1.5 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, demonstrating continued ecosystem strength and recurring revenue generation.
3. Optimism Driven by the Introduction of Siri AI and Broader AI Strategy.
Apple's announcement of the "all-new Siri AI" at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC26) in June 2026 generated significant market enthusiasm. This strategic move positioned Apple for its next phase of growth in artificial intelligence, reassuring investors about the company's innovation pipeline. Analysts cited longer-term opportunities stemming from Apple's AI strategy as a positive factor. The expectation that the revamped Siri AI will require newer iPhone hardware also fueled speculation of increased device upgrades and potentially higher iPhone pricing in the fall, further contributing to investor confidence in future revenue streams.
4. Market Leadership and Ecosystem Resilience Amidst Tech Sector Volatility.
Apple's stock benefited from its enduring market leadership and the strength of its integrated ecosystem. On July 28, 2026, Apple briefly became the first U.S. company to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization. The company's vertical integration of hardware and software, its proprietary M-series chips, and its strong brand loyalty, which creates high switching costs for consumers, allowed it to maintain pricing power. This resilience was particularly notable as some investors reportedly "fled AI and semiconductor stocks" due to concerns about high capital expenditures among other tech rivals, positioning Apple as a relatively more stable investment in a volatile tech environment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in AAPL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 271.10 | 307.34 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 435,617 | 466,823 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 27.6% | 2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.9 | 34.9 | 2.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,748 | 14,656 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 13.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.9% | 3.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.7% change in AAPL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 259.00 | 307.34 | 18.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 435,617 | 466,823 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 27.6% | 2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.4 | 34.9 | 7.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,748 | 14,656 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.0% | 17.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.7% change in AAPL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 206.75 | 307.34 | 48.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 400,366 | 466,823 | 16.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.6% | 13.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.9 | 34.9 | 9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,994 | 14,656 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 49.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 39.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.0% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.6% change in AAPL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.73 | 307.34 | 58.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 385,095 | 466,823 | 21.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.5% | 27.6% | 12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.4 | 34.9 | 7.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,787 | 14,656 | 7.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 59.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 61.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 100.3% | 54.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 9% | 23% | 159% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 14% | 50% | 251% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -19% | -30% | -15% | -15% | -31% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -43% | -18% | -25% | -32% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Apple (AAPL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of consumer electronics, software, and online services. The company's business model centers on creating an integrated ecosystem of hardware and software, providing users with premium smartphones, personal computers, tablets, and wearable devices.
Apple's main products include the iPhone (smartphones), Mac (personal computers), iPad (tablets), and popular wearables such as Apple Watch and AirPods. Complementing its hardware, Apple offers a robust suite of services, including the App Store for digital content and applications, Apple Music for streaming, Apple TV+ for original video content, Apple Pay for mobile payments, and AppleCare for support. It also provides cloud services and subscription offerings like Apple Arcade and Apple News+.
The company primarily serves a broad customer base, including individual consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and sectors like education, enterprise, and government. Apple distributes its products globally through its own retail and online stores, direct sales force, and a network of third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apple (AAPL):
- The Nike of personal technology.
- Imagine if Tesla made your phone, computer, and watch, and designed all the software they ran on.
- The Rolex of personal electronics.
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- iPhone: Apple's flagship line of smartphones.
- Mac: Apple's brand of personal computers.
- iPad: Apple's line of multi-purpose tablets.
- Wearables & Accessories: Includes devices like Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple TV, and HomePod.
- App Store: A digital marketplace for applications and content.
- Apple Music: A subscription-based music streaming service.
- Apple TV+: A subscription video streaming service featuring exclusive original content.
- Apple Arcade: A subscription service offering a curated library of games.
- Apple News+: A subscription service for news and magazines.
- AppleCare: Comprehensive support and extended warranty services for Apple products.
- iCloud: Cloud storage and synchronization services for data across Apple devices.
- Apple Pay: A mobile payment and digital wallet service.
- Apple Card: A co-branded credit card offering integrated financial management.
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) primarily sells its products and services to individuals and various organizational entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Consumers: Individual users worldwide who purchase Apple's smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and subscribe to its various services (e.g., Apple Music, Apple TV+, App Store content) for personal use.
- Small and Mid-sized Businesses: Organizations that acquire Apple products (such as iPhones, Macs, and iPads) and related services for their employees and operational needs.
- Education, Enterprise, and Government Markets: Larger institutions, corporations, and public sector bodies that integrate Apple technology into their learning environments, corporate infrastructure, or administrative systems.
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- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)
- Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)
- Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)
- Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)
- Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
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Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook has served as Apple's CEO since 2011, succeeding co-founder Steve Jobs. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Apple's chief operating officer, responsible for the company's worldwide sales and operations, supply chain management, and service and support across all markets. Before joining Apple in 1998, Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he was director of North American Fulfillment. He also served as chief operating officer of the Reseller Division at Intelligent Electronics and as vice president of Corporate Materials for Compaq.
Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevan Parekh assumed the role of Apple's Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2025. He reports directly to CEO Tim Cook and oversees Apple's accounting, business support, financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, internal audit, and tax functions. Parekh joined Apple in 2013 and has held key roles in financial and business planning, and product development planning. Prior to his time at Apple, he held senior leadership positions at Thomson Reuters and General Motors, working across Europe and Asia.
Katherine Adams, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs
Katherine Adams is Apple's senior vice president of Government Affairs, leading the team that engages with legislators and policymakers globally on topics important to Apple's users. She previously served as Apple's general counsel and senior vice president of Legal and Global Security. Adams joined Apple in 2017 after 14 years at Honeywell, where she was most recently senior vice president and general counsel, managing the organization's global legal strategy across over 100 countries.
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services and Health
Eddy Cue is Apple's senior vice president of Services and Health, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. He oversees the full range of Apple's services, including Apple Music, Apple News, Apple Podcasts, Apple TV app, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Maps, iCloud services, and Apple's productivity and creativity apps. Cue joined Apple in 1989 and was instrumental in creating the Apple Store online in 1998, the iTunes Store in 2003, and the App Store in 2008.
Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering
Craig Federighi is Apple's senior vice president of Software Engineering, responsible for the development of Apple's software platforms, including iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS. His teams deliver the software, user interface, applications, and frameworks for Apple's innovative products. Federighi returned to Apple in 2009 to lead macOS engineering, and in 2012, his responsibilities expanded to include iOS. Before rejoining Apple, he worked at NeXT, and then spent a decade at Ariba, an e-commerce pioneer where he held several roles, including chief technology officer.
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The key risks to Apple's business include:
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Apple faces significant global regulatory and antitrust challenges, particularly concerning its App Store policies and business practices. Investigations and lawsuits from entities such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) target Apple's control over app distribution and in-app purchasing systems, which could lead to mandated changes in business practices, lower commission fees, and substantial fines. These actions directly threaten the high-margin revenue generated by Apple's Services segment.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Concentration: Apple's deep reliance on China as both a primary manufacturing hub and a critical consumer market exposes it to considerable geopolitical risks. Escalating trade tensions, tariffs, export controls, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment in China could disrupt its supply chain, increase production costs, and negatively impact sales in a key region. While Apple is pursuing diversification of its manufacturing base to countries like India and Vietnam, this process is complex, costly, and its dependency on China remains substantial.
- Innovation and Competition in Rapidly Evolving Technologies: Apple operates in highly competitive markets across its product and service categories, requiring constant innovation to maintain its leadership. There is a risk that new products and services may not achieve the same level of profitability or market acceptance as existing offerings, such as the iPhone. Furthermore, the company faces pressure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and a perceived lag in AI development or a failure to introduce compelling new AI features could impact its competitive standing and future growth.
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Regulatory actions, particularly those aimed at dismantling its tightly controlled App Store ecosystem and payment policies. Examples include the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which mandates allowing alternative app stores and third-party payment systems on iOS devices, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny in other regions such as the United States and Japan. These actions threaten Apple's significant revenue streams from App Store commissions and its strategic control over its platform, potentially leading to reduced profitability and a more fragmented user experience.
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Addressable Markets for Apple's Main Products and Services
- Smartphones (iPhone): The global smartphone market size was valued at USD 649.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1173.47 billion by 2033.
- Personal Computers (Mac): The global personal computers market size was valued at USD 211.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 390.84 billion by 2033.
- Tablets (iPad): The global tablet market size was valued at USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033.
- Wearables (AirPods Max, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats products): The global wearables market was estimated at USD 179.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 995.2 billion in 2034.
- App Store (Applications and Digital Content): The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Of this, USD 131 billion originated from billings and sales of digital goods and services.
- Apple Arcade (Game Subscription Service): The global subscription-based gaming market generated USD 11.53 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.18 billion by 2030.
- Apple Music (Music Streaming): The global music streaming market generated USD 48.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about USD 200 billion by 2034.
- Apple TV+ (Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030.
-
Apple Card and Apple Pay (FinTech/Digital Payments):
- The global fintech market was valued at USD 394.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,760.18 billion by 2034.
- The global digital payment market size was estimated at USD 114.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030.
- Apple News+: null
- AppleCare support services: null
- Licensing intellectual property: null
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Continued Services Growth: Apple's Services segment, encompassing offerings like the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and payment services, is a consistent and high-margin revenue driver. This segment has shown robust double-digit year-over-year growth and is projected to continue its strong momentum, supported by Apple's extensive installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices. The expansion of this ecosystem, through recurring subscriptions and digital transactions, provides stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Strong iPhone Sales and Upgrade Cycles: iPhone sales continue to be a significant contributor to Apple's revenue, with recent quarters showing strong growth, particularly driven by new product launches like the iPhone 17 lineup. A large, installed base of active devices creates opportunities for significant hardware upgrade cycles, especially with the introduction of new, more capable, and AI-ready iPhone models.
- Expansion in Emerging Markets: Apple is experiencing considerable growth in emerging markets. The company has reported double-digit iPhone growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, South Asia, Brazil, and Greater China, indicating a successful strategy to expand its customer base beyond traditional markets. This geographical expansion is crucial for sustained long-term revenue growth.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration and Innovation: Apple's strategic focus on developing and integrating AI across its platforms is a significant future growth driver. This includes efforts to enhance its operating systems and services, such as a more personalized Siri, potentially through collaborations like the one with Google for foundational AI models. New AI-ready iPads and Macs are also expected to accelerate sales by appealing to an increasingly AI-focused technological environment.
- New Product Line Innovation and Market Share Expansion: Apple is demonstrating flexibility in its product strategy by introducing new offerings aimed at broader market segments. Examples include the launch of the MacBook Neo, a more budget-friendly laptop, and the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPhone, designed to attract new users into the Apple ecosystem and increase market share. Furthermore, exploration into new categories like home automation and security, potentially with a smart home hub and security cameras, could also serve as future revenue catalysts.
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Share Repurchases
- Apple authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases in May 2024, marking the largest share buyback in U.S. company history.
- The company repurchased $90.711 billion in shares in 2025, $94.949 billion in 2024, and $77.55 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Apple's shares outstanding declined by 2.62% in 2025 (to 15.005 billion), 2.56% in 2024 (to 15.408 billion), and 3.14% in 2023 (to 15.813 billion), primarily due to extensive share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- Apple is significantly increasing its AI investments and has made seven acquisitions directly related to its AI ambitions in 2025, with a stated openness to further strategic acquisitions aligned with long-term AI goals.
- The company has committed $500 billion to U.S. investments over several years, focusing on expanding U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development.
- In October 2025, Apple pledged further investments in China while simultaneously preparing to dedicate another $100 billion to expanding its operations in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Apple's annual capital expenditures were $12.715 billion in 2025, $9.447 billion in 2024, and $10.959 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the next fiscal year are forecast at $13.465 billion, with a high consensus reaching $16.238 billion.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures in fiscal Q4 2025, which saw a 35% year-over-year increase to $12.7 billion, was directed towards AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centers.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 330.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 3,170.8 |
| Rev LTM | 388,853 |
| Op Inc LTM | 120,670 |
| FCF LTM | 31,358 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 38,497 |
| CFO LTM | 154,064 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 126,470 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 21.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3,170.8 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 26.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.3 |
| P/E | 23.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone ® | 209,586 | 201,183 | 200,583 | 205,489 | 191,973 |
| Services | 109,158 | 96,169 | 85,200 | 78,129 | 68,425 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 35,686 | 37,005 | 39,845 | 41,241 | 38,367 |
| Mac ® | 33,708 | 29,984 | 29,357 | 40,177 | 35,190 |
| iPad ® | 28,023 | 26,694 | 28,300 | 29,292 | 31,862 |
| Total | 416,161 | 391,035 | 383,285 | 394,328 | 365,817 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Americas | 6,637 |
| Europe | 4,296 |
| Retail | 1,677 |
| Other Segments | 1,121 |
| Japan | 961 |
| Corporate | -2,952 |
| Total | 11,740 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Corporate | 41,897 |
| Americas | 1,882 |
| Europe | 1,352 |
| Retail | 1,344 |
| Other Segments | 543 |
| Japan | 483 |
| Total | 47,501 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $308.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4,527.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $309.50 | $277.43 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.2% | 11.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.4% | 25.9% |
| Downside Capture | 2.57 | 53.32 |
| Upside Capture | 46.37 | 90.82 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.2% | 42.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.27 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | -2.30 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | 1.33 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 29% | -4% | 54% | 71% | 86% | 93% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 35 | 68 | 133 | 407 |
| Down Capture | -76% | 2% | -1% | 50% | 64% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 27 | 57 | 118 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 47.7% | 26.0% | 1.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 33.2% | 25.6% | 1.08 | 24.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 39.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 20.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 13.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 16.2% | 28.0% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.7% | 25.7% | 0.65 | 69.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 72.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 46.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 26.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 29.8% | 29.2% | 0.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.9% | 0.87 | 77.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 74.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 18.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | ||
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | ||
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.8% | -1.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/27/2021 | -1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| 1/27/2021 | -3.5% | -5.7% | -14.5% |
| 10/29/2020 | -5.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 295.14 | 116 | 34,236 | 11,425,755 | Form |
| 2 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 311.02 | 50,000 | 15,551,000 | 1,170,858,428 | Form | |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 290.00 | 1,274 | 369,460 | 11,226,770 | Form |
| 4 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 284.76 | 250,000 | 71,189,722 | 1,087,658,219 | Form | |
| 5 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.00 | 1,534 | 421,850 | 3,675,650 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 295.14 | 116 | 34,236 | 11,425,755 | Form |
| 2 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 311.02 | 50,000 | 15,551,000 | 1,170,858,428 | Form | |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 290.00 | 1,274 | 369,460 | 11,226,770 | Form |
| 4 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 284.76 | 250,000 | 71,189,722 | 1,087,658,219 | Form | |
| 5 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.00 | 1,534 | 421,850 | 3,675,650 | Form |
| 6 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 255.35 | 30,002 | 7,660,875 | 34,933,815 | Form |
| 7 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 254.23 | 64,949 | 16,512,198 | 833,991,449 | Form |
| 8 | Kondo, Chris | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
| 9 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 247.39 | 4,199 | 1,038,787 | 2,168,367 | Form |
| 10 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.81 | 129,963 | 33,375,723 | 842,410,671 | Form |
| 11 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 257.39 | 43,013 | 11,071,078 | 35,181,747 | Form |
| 12 | Adams, Katherine L | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.79 | 47,125 | 12,101,154 | 46,005,698 | Form |
| 13 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 232.07 | 90,000 | 20,886,300 | 944,426,502 | Form | |
| 14 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 223.20 | 34,821 | 7,772,047 | 30,508,538 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| MPS Loria Financial Planners, LLC | $71.0 Mil | 18.7% | 94 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $40.5 Mil | 15.6% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Zullo Investment Group, Inc. | $40.5 Mil | 15.4% | 158 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Clare Market Investments LLC | $60.6 Mil | 12.7% | 167 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $50.4 Mil | 12.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| 1776 Wealth LLC | $31.6 Mil | 12.4% | 146 | New | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $134.4 Mil | 12.8% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Platform Wealth Management, LLC | $61.9 Mil | 16.4% | 82 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Sittner & Nelson, LLC | $39.2 Mil | 14.3% | 573 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Everett Harris & Co /Ca/ | $1.0 Bil | 13.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Cincinnati Financial Corp | $709.9 Mil | 14.3% | 55 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| HCR Wealth Advisors | $129.7 Mil | 13.5% | 241 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Wahed Invest LLC | $95.7 Mil | 12.4% | 225 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Aljian Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 14.9% | 131 | Hold | 13F |
AAPL Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Strong demand for new AI-powered hardware, with iPhone revenue up 22%, is clashing with significant operational headwinds. Management guides for revenue growth to decelerate to 9-11% next quarter, citing worsening supply constraints and rising memory costs. A massive 87.2% inventory increase also raises questions about near-term demand, warranting a cautious stance.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
FranchiseRevenue = (Installed Base of Devices) * (Upgrade Rate * Average Selling Price) + (Attach Rate for Services * Average Revenue Per User) Gross Profit is driven by the mix between high-margin Services and lower-margin (but still robust) Products. Margin expansion is fueled by the faster growth of the Services segment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to powerful underlying demand for new AI products, but this is currently capped by operational constraints.
- iPhone revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $54.3 billion in the most recent quarter.
- Mac revenue grew an impressive 29% year-over-year to $10.4 billion.
- The active installed base of devices surpassed 2.5 billion, an all-time high.
- The company set a June quarter record for iPhone upgraders.
- Paid subscriptions across all services surpassed one and a half billion.
PRIMARY RISK
Management guides for revenue growth to decelerate to 9-11% next quarter, explicitly warning that supply constraints on advanced chips will 'increase significantly'. This, combined with a 'flood' in memory costs, threatens to cap revenue and compress margins despite strong underlying demand, as reflected in the recent -9.0% stock reaction to this guidance.
- Company guidance for next quarter's revenue growth is 9%-11%, a slowdown from 16.4%.
- Supply constraints are expected to 'increase significantly sequentially' for iPhone, Mac, and iPad.
- Inventory grew 87.2% year-over-year, massively outpacing 16.4% revenue growth.
- Management expects to pay 'even higher memory costs' in the upcoming quarter.
- The stock reacted -9.0% in the two days around the latest earnings and guidance.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone Revenue Growth | 22% year-over-year growth for the quarter ended June 2026 - Stable | Management attributes the strong performance to enormous customer enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 family, which they call the most popular lineup ever. The company set a June quarter record for upgraders, indicating robust replacement demand. |
| Services Revenue Growth | 12% year-over-year growth for the quarter ended June 2026 - Decelerating | Management stated that foreign exchange was the main driver for the sequential deceleration in the year-over-year growth rate. They also noted some headwinds in mobile gaming and changes to the App Store business model. Despite the slowdown, the company surpassed one and a half billion paid subscriptions. |
| Active Device Installed Base | Over 2.5 billion (Q3 FY2026 (ended 6/27/2026)) | Represents the total pool of users that can be monetized through the high-margin Services segment. Consistent growth signals a healthy ecosystem and future services revenue potential. |
| Inventory-vs-Revenue Growth Divergence | 70.8 percentage points (Q3 FY2026 (ended 6/30/2026)) | A significant divergence where inventory growth (87.2% YoY) massively outpaces revenue growth (16.4% YoY) can be a red flag for potential future write-downs, margin pressure from discounting, or a misjudgment of demand. This is a sharp reversal from the prior quarter's -9 percentage point divergence. |
Staggering Demand vs. Supply Gridlock
BULL VIEW
The AI upgrade cycle is real and powerful, evidenced by record upgraders and 22% iPhone growth. Near-term supply issues are temporary, and once resolved, revenue will re-accelerate to meet the 'staggering' underlying demand, justifying a higher valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can strong iPhone (+22%) and Mac (+29%) demand overcome a guided revenue slowdown to 9-11% and a massive inventory build?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. Management's own guidance for a slowdown, citing worsening supply issues, is the most direct forward-looking indicator and prompted a -9.0% stock reaction.
BEAR VIEW
The guided 9-11% revenue slowdown and a 70.8 percentage point inventory-to-sales growth divergence suggest operational issues are severe. The company may be misreading demand, leaving it unable to capitalize on the AI hype and facing future margin pressure.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in its fourth quarter of 2026 | New Income Tax Disclosures Watch: The company will adopt ASU 2023-09, which requires improvements to income tax disclosures. |
payable on August 13th, 2026, to shareholders of record as of August 10th, 2026 | Quarterly Cash Dividend Payment Watch: A cash dividend of $0.27 per share will be paid. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Results Signal Tech Slowdown Watch: Peers' revenue growth, cloud computing demand, and outlooks for the holiday quarter. |
10/28/2026 | Worsening Supply Chain Constraints Watch: Guidance for the December quarter and any commentary on whether constraints will impact the holiday season. |
10/28/2026 | Margin Erosion From Memory Costs Watch: Reported Q4 gross margin versus guidance and the outlook for memory cost trends into the December quarter. |
10/28/2026 | Inventory Data Contradicts Narrative Watch: The next balance sheet's inventory levels and management's explanation for the discrepancy between reported inventory and supply constraints. |
10/28/2026 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
11/9/2026 | Dell Earnings Report Watch: Peer Dell Technologies is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/23/2026 | HPQ Earnings Report Watch: Peer HP is scheduled to report earnings. |
this fall | New OS Features Launch Watch: New software capabilities, including Siri AI and child safety features, are expected to be released to users. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-30 | Reported Q3 Results And Guided Lower Details: The company reported 16% YoY revenue growth for Q3 but guided for a Q4 slowdown to 9-11% growth, citing supply constraints and FX. The stock reacted -9.0%. | -8.7% $338.19 -> $308.91 |
2026-07-08 | Expanded Broadcom Chip Partnership Details: A new multiyear agreement with Broadcom, expected to exceed $30 billion, was announced for the production of U.S.-made chips, marking the largest American Manufacturing Program commitment. | +1.8% $310.66 -> $316.22 |
2026-06-08 | Apple Intelligence And Siri AI Unveiled Details: At its Worldwide Developers Conference, the company unveiled its next generation of AI, including Siri AI and new parental controls. | -5.5% $307.34 -> $290.55 |
2026-04-30 | CEO Transition Announced Details: The company announced its CEO will transition to Executive Chairman on September 1, with John Ternus becoming the new CEO. | +3.7% $269.92 -> $279.88 |
2026-04-30 | Positive Earnings Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 earnings on April 30, 2026, after which the stock had a positive two-day reaction of 4.0%. | +3.7% $269.92 -> $279.88 |
2026-02-17 | Stock Rebounds Ahead Of Event Details: The stock price rebounded as anticipation built for a high-profile March event expected to detail the company's AI strategy. | +3.4% $255.54 -> $264.11 |
2026-01-30 | Strong Earnings And AI Focus Details: The company reported strong earnings, with the stock advancing as market focus turned to the company's AI strategy and supply situation. | +4.5% $257.80 -> $269.51 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AAPL trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 78th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI ExposureOffers direct exposure to enterprise AI adoption through its massive Azure cloud infrastructure, with capital expenditures of $115.9 billion versus Apple's $10 billion.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Cloud AI InfrastructureDominates cloud AI infrastructure growth at 82% and benefits from AI integration into its core Search and YouTube advertising businesses.
A premium hardware franchise leveraging its massive installed base to build a high-margin, recurring-revenue services business, now betting on a new AI-driven hardware upgrade cycle.
Apple's core is its ability to sell high-margin hardware like the iPhone, creating a sticky ecosystem. This massive installed base of over 2.5 billion devices is a platform for the rapidly growing Services segment, which now has over one and a half billion paid subscriptions. The company is now introducing 'Apple Intelligence' and 'Siri AI' to catalyze the next major hardware replacement cycle, reinforcing the symbiotic relationship between its hardware and services.
Evidence that new AI features are accelerating the iPhone upgrade cycle; continued double-digit growth and margin expansion in the Services segment; resolution of supply chain constraints.
Persistent supply constraints on advanced chips that cap revenue growth despite strong demand; evidence that consumers are rejecting higher prices, leading to market share loss; a significant slowdown in Services growth.
Short-term quarterly fluctuations in product mix between different iPhone models or Mac vs. iPad sales, as long as the overall hardware ecosystem and services growth remain intact.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's reaction to the September quarter guidance, which implies a revenue growth deceleration. The -9.0% stock reaction to the July earnings report suggests concerns over the severity of supply constraints and their impact on near-term growth.
iPhone
$235.9B TTM (52% of Total)What It Is
A line of smartphones based on the iOS operating system, sold to consumers and business customers globally. The current line includes models such as the iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone Air, iPhone 17, and iPhone 17e.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and businesses purchase iPhones through direct sales channels or indirect partners like cellular carriers. Customers choose iPhone for its performance, camera capabilities, durability, and deep integration with the company's ecosystem of software and services, including new AI features.
Competition
Services
$117.2B TTM (26% of Total)What It Is
A portfolio of services including advertising, AppleCare support, cloud services (iCloud), digital content platforms (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+), and payment services (Apple Pay, Apple Card). These are sold to the installed base of Apple device users.
Who Pays & How
Device users pay for subscriptions and digital content, while developers pay commissions on App Store sales and advertisers pay for ad placements. Customers pay for the convenience, quality, and seamless integration of these services within the Apple ecosystem.
Competition
Wearables, Home and Accessories
$35.8B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
A range of products including smartwatches (Apple Watch), wireless headphones (AirPods, Beats), spatial computers (Apple Vision Pro), home devices (Apple TV, HomePod), and various accessories.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase these products for their features, design, and integration with the broader Apple ecosystem. For example, Apple Watch is chosen for its comprehensive health and fitness features.
Competition
Mac
$33.6B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
A line of personal computers based on the macOS operating system, including laptops (MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, MacBook Neo) and desktops (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro).
Who Pays & How
Consumers, creative professionals, students, and businesses purchase Mac computers. They are chosen for their performance, design, reliability, and the macOS user experience, particularly with the power and efficiency of Apple's custom silicon, which is positioned as ideal for AI workloads.
Competition
iPad
$29.0B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
A line of multipurpose tablets based on the iPadOS operating system, including iPad Pro, iPad Air, iPad, and iPad mini.
Who Pays & How
Consumers, students, creative professionals, and businesses purchase iPads for their portability, versatility, and performance. The device is positioned as a go-anywhere, do-anything tool for productivity, learning, and creativity.
Competition
Apple — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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