ExxonMobil (XOM)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $155.52 | Market Cap: $653.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $155.52Market Cap: $653.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 48 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 58 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 14x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 48 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 58 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 14x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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ExxonMobil (XOM) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Q1 2026 GAAP Earnings Year-over-Year.
Despite exceeding analyst estimates for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in fiscal Q1 2026 (reported on May 1, 2026), ExxonMobil's GAAP earnings significantly decreased to $4.2 billion from $7.7 billion in fiscal Q1 2025. This downturn was primarily attributed to "unfavorable estimated timing effects of $3.9 billion" and an identified item of $0.7 billion, alongside disruptions in Middle East supply, impacting the overall financial performance and investor sentiment.
2. Volatility and Decline in Crude Oil Prices During Fiscal Q2 2026.
The period experienced significant volatility in crude oil prices. While prices saw a surge in mid-July due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude reaching over $92 per barrel on July 23, 2026, the earlier part of fiscal Q2 2026 saw a decline. WTI crude oil spot prices, after reaching $104.07 in May 2026, had fallen to $68.58 by July 1, 2026. This earlier period of lower and fluctuating commodity prices likely weighed on the stock, as a substantial portion of the specified timeframe experienced less favorable pricing conditions for oil and gas producers.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Q1 2026 GAAP Earnings Year-over-Year.
Despite exceeding analyst estimates for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in fiscal Q1 2026 (reported on May 1, 2026), ExxonMobil's GAAP earnings significantly decreased to $4.2 billion from $7.7 billion in fiscal Q1 2025. This downturn was primarily attributed to "unfavorable estimated timing effects of $3.9 billion" and an identified item of $0.7 billion, alongside disruptions in Middle East supply, impacting the overall financial performance and investor sentiment.
2. Volatility and Decline in Crude Oil Prices During Fiscal Q2 2026.
The period experienced significant volatility in crude oil prices. While prices saw a surge in mid-July due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude reaching over $92 per barrel on July 23, 2026, the earlier part of fiscal Q2 2026 saw a decline. WTI crude oil spot prices, after reaching $104.07 in May 2026, had fallen to $68.58 by July 1, 2026. This earlier period of lower and fluctuating commodity prices likely weighed on the stock, as a substantial portion of the specified timeframe experienced less favorable pricing conditions for oil and gas producers.
3. Negative Analyst Outlook for Fiscal Year 2027 Earnings.
Forward-looking analyst forecasts have contributed to negative investor sentiment. ExxonMobil's earnings per share are projected to decrease by approximately 5.1% in fiscal year 2027, from an estimated $11.38 to $10.80 per share. This anticipated decline in future profitability signals a less optimistic outlook for the company's financial performance, putting downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.9% change in XOM stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.52 | 156.89 | -6.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 323,905 | 326,008 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 7.8% | -12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 26.0 | 5.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,236 | 4,202 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | -6.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.5% | -49.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.1% | 93.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.1% change in XOM stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 53.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.74 | 156.89 | 32.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 324,924 | 326,008 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 7.8% | -15.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 26.0 | 53.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,285 | 4,202 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 32.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | -35.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 33.7% | 92.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.2% change in XOM stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.47 | 156.89 | 50.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,894 | 326,008 | -4.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 7.8% | -20.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 26.0 | 89.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,372 | 4,202 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 50.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.5% | -21.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 43.4% | 90.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.7% change in XOM stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 303.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.02 | 156.89 | 61.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 394,585 | 326,008 | -17.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 7.8% | -50.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.5 | 26.0 | 303.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,102 | 4,202 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 61.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 59.9% | 89.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 30% | 365% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 58% | 392% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -17% | -21% | -18% | -15% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -29% | -23% | -30% | -25% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 123 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1190 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ExxonMobil (XOM)
ExxonMobil (XOM) is a global energy and petrochemical company primarily engaged in exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas. Operating through its Upstream segment, the company extracts these vital resources from significant global reserves, boasting thousands of net operated wells. This core activity forms the foundation of its extensive operations, making it a major player in the world's energy supply.
Beyond resource extraction, ExxonMobil transforms these raw materials into a wide array of products through its Downstream and Chemical segments. The Downstream business refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, lubricants, and jet fuel, which are then traded, transported, and sold to consumers and businesses worldwide. Concurrently, the Chemical segment manufactures essential petrochemicals like olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, serving diverse industrial applications such as plastics, packaging, and various specialty products.
The company also extends its operations into emerging energy solutions, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production, and biofuels, reflecting its involvement in the evolving energy landscape. ExxonMobil's primary customers and markets are global, encompassing individual consumers who rely on its fuels, industrial sectors utilizing its petrochemicals, and various businesses dependent on its comprehensive range of energy and specialty products.
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- It's like Cargill but for energy – a global giant that finds, processes, and sells the world's essential oil, gas, and chemical products.
- Think of it as the General Electric of global energy – a massive industrial powerhouse focused on extracting, refining, and distributing oil, gas, and chemicals.
- It's like Coca-Cola for the world's energy supply – a universally present, long-standing company providing the fundamental fuels and materials for daily life.
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- Crude Oil: ExxonMobil explores, produces, trades, transports, and sells crude oil.
- Natural Gas: ExxonMobil explores, produces, trades, transports, and sells natural gas.
- Petroleum Products: The company manufactures, trades, transports, and sells a variety of refined petroleum products.
- Petrochemicals: ExxonMobil manufactures and sells petrochemicals such as olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics.
- Carbon Capture & Storage: This service involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions and storing them safely.
- Hydrogen: The company is involved in the production and sale of hydrogen.
- Biofuels: ExxonMobil produces and sells various types of biofuels.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) primarily sells to other companies, operating across its Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. Due to the broad and diversified nature of its products, which include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and petrochemicals, ExxonMobil serves a vast number of business customers globally. Specific major customer companies are not publicly disclosed as no single customer or small group of customers accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.
However, its customer base can be broadly categorized as:
- Industrial Manufacturers: These companies purchase petrochemicals (such as olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics) as raw materials for producing a wide range of goods, including plastics, automotive components, packaging materials, construction products, and consumer goods.
- Transportation and Logistics Companies: This category includes airlines, shipping lines, and trucking fleets that rely on ExxonMobil for refined fuels (e.g., jet fuel, marine fuels, diesel) and lubricants to power their operations.
- Other Energy and Utility Companies: This encompasses independent refiners, natural gas distributors, and power generation companies that purchase crude oil, natural gas, or wholesale refined products.
In addition to its significant business-to-business (B2B) sales, ExxonMobil also serves Individual Consumers through its global network of Exxon and Mobil branded service stations, where customers purchase gasoline, diesel, and convenience items.
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- Schlumberger (SLB)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- Baker Hughes (BKR)
- TechnipFMC (FTI)
- Fluor Corporation (FLR)
- SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS)
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Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst. He advanced through a number of domestic and international assignments within Exxon Company International, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Mr. Woods served as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, where he managed global specialty-chemical businesses. He was appointed president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, and in 2014, he was elected senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Mr. Woods became president of Exxon Mobil Corporation and a member of the board of directors effective January 1, 2016, and was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2017.
Neil A. Hansen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Neil A. Hansen began his current role as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective February 1, 2026. He started his career with ExxonMobil in 2000 in Houston, holding various financial analyst and supervisory positions in the Upstream segment. He served as Financial Reporting Manager in Sakhalin, Russia, from 2006 to 2008, and later as the Audit Division Manager for U.S. Chemical in Houston. Mr. Hansen moved to corporate headquarters in Irving in 2009 as a Senior Financial Advisor. He was appointed Vice President of Fuels for Europe, Africa and the Middle East, based in Brussels, Belgium, a position he held until 2022, when he became Senior Vice President for Energy Products in Houston. Prior to his current role, he served as President, Global Business Solutions from May 2025.
Neil A. Chapman, Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined Esso Chemical Company in 1984 at the Fawley Refinery in the United Kingdom. He progressed through engineering, operations, planning, and commercial roles in various chemical affiliates in the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, and Hong Kong before the 1999 merger between Exxon and Mobil. Mr. Chapman served as ExxonMobil Chemical Company's Asia Pacific polyolefins sales manager and later as the project executive of the Fujian integrated refining and ethylene joint venture project in China. In 2005, he was appointed vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business, and in 2007, he became president of ExxonMobil Global Services Company. He was president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company from 2015 until joining the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018.
Jack P. Williams, Jr., Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams, Jr. joined Exxon in April 1987 as a drilling engineer in New Orleans, Louisiana. He held various technical, supervisory, and planning positions, including operations management assignments for the company's East Texas field areas, and Gulf Coast and offshore California properties. From 2010 to 2013, Mr. Williams was president of XTO Energy Inc., which ExxonMobil acquired in 2010. Prior to that, he served as vice president responsible for Asia projects in ExxonMobil Development Company. He was elected senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014.
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The key risks to ExxonMobil's business include the challenges posed by climate change and the global energy transition, the inherent volatility of commodity prices and market demand, and exposure to geopolitical and regulatory shifts.
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Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks: ExxonMobil faces substantial risks related to global efforts to address climate change and the accelerating energy transition. The company has received criticism for its environmental record and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. There is ongoing pressure from various stakeholders, including governments, consumers, and investors, to reduce carbon footprint and align business strategies with climate goals such as the Paris Agreement. This pressure translates into potential regulatory changes, increased compliance costs, and litigation risks. Furthermore, a shift towards lower-carbon energy sources could lead to decreased long-term demand for fossil fuels, potentially resulting in stranded assets for ExxonMobil's extensive oil, gas, and petrochemical investments.
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Volatile Commodity Prices and Market Demand Fluctuations: ExxonMobil's financial performance is highly susceptible to the fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and chemicals. These prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, including global economic growth rates, supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and the competitiveness of alternative energy sources. Economic downturns or recessions can directly reduce demand for energy and petrochemicals, adversely impacting the company's earnings and cash flows.
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Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: Operating as a global entity, ExxonMobil is exposed to a range of geopolitical and regulatory risks. These include the impacts of government policies, international trade tariffs, sanctions, and political instability or conflicts in regions where it has significant operations. Changes in environmental regulations, compliance requirements (such as those under the Clean Air Act), and potential litigation related to operational incidents or environmental impact can result in significant fines, remediation costs, and reputational damage.
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- The rapid global adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) threatens the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are core products of ExxonMobil's Downstream segment.
- The accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, threatens the demand for crude oil and natural gas in power generation and industrial applications, impacting ExxonMobil's Upstream segment.
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For the public company ExxonMobil (symbol: XOM), here are the addressable market sizes for its main products and services:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 3,050.95 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3,188.67 billion in 2026. Another report indicates a global market volume of 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025. Asia Pacific was the largest region in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 895.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 918.7 billion in 2026. Another source reported the natural gas market size as USD 1.2 trillion in 2024, projected to reach USD 1.9 trillion by 2030. North America dominated with a 28.2% revenue share in 2025. Asia-Pacific is also expected to dominate the natural gas market.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size was valued at USD 735.36 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to be worth USD 769.92 billion in 2025. Another estimate for the global market size was USD 3,128.22 billion in 2025, growing to USD 3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global market in 2020 with a share of 32.02%, and North America is also a significant market, with the United States holding approximately 45% of the North American market.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 641.01 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 973.10 million by 2030. Other reports state the global petrochemical market size was estimated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 743.50 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific held the largest market share of 46.9% in 2024.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture and storage market was valued at USD 8.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate valued the global market size at USD 4.51 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 5.31 billion in 2026. North America dominated the market with a market share of 59.65% in 2025.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at USD 214.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 226.1 billion in 2026. Another source reported the global hydrogen market size at USD 282.63 billion in 2025. Asia Pacific dominated the hydrogen market and recorded the highest market share of 36% in 2025. North America is observed to be the fastest-growing market during the forecast period.
- Biofuels: The global biofuels market size was valued at USD 141.99 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 151.96 billion in 2026. Another report estimated the market size at USD 138.11 billion in 2026. North America was the most significant market shareholder in 2025, accounting for 37.8% of global revenue.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Increased Upstream Production from Advantaged Assets: A significant driver of revenue growth is expected from increased production in key advantaged assets. The company is targeting Permian Basin production to reach approximately 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, supported by synergies from the Pioneer acquisition. Additionally, record production and development pace in Guyana, with projects like Oahu, Whiptail, and Hammerhead underway, will contribute to upstream growth. Furthermore, the startup of Golden Pass LNG Train 1 and progress toward final investment decisions on LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique are expected to increase LNG exports.
- Growth in Product Solutions and High-Value Products: ExxonMobil expects substantial earnings growth from its Product Solutions business, focusing on high-value products and a recovery in its Chemical Products segment. High-value products, including new businesses such as Proxxima™ systems, advanced lubricants, and revolutionary battery anode graphite, are projected to contribute over 40% of earnings potential by 2030. The company is also seeing margin recovery in the Chemical Products segment as market conditions normalize.
- Ongoing Structural Cost Reductions and Operational Efficiencies: The company's continued focus on structural cost savings and operational efficiencies is a crucial driver for enhancing financial performance and expanding margins. ExxonMobil aims to achieve billions in structural cost savings by 2027 and beyond, leading to improved unit earnings and stronger profitability across its operations.
- Expansion in Low Carbon Solutions: ExxonMobil is strategically investing in its Low Carbon Solutions business, particularly in carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, and hydrogen production. While the pace of these investments is subject to policy support and market formation, these initiatives are expected to generate significant earnings, with opportunities projected to exceed $1 billion a year in earnings by 2030 and potentially reaching $13 billion by 2040. The company has established large-scale CCS systems along the U.S. Gulf Coast and is developing lower-emission fuels to meet future energy demands.
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Share Repurchases
- ExxonMobil made $14.9 billion in share repurchases in 2022 and authorized up to $35 billion of cumulative share repurchases for 2023-2024.
- The company's annual share repurchases were $17.748 billion in 2023 and $19.629 billion in 2024.
- In 2025, ExxonMobil repurchased $20.0 billion in shares and plans to repurchase $20 billion more through 2026.
Share Issuance
- ExxonMobil agreed to an all-stock merger with Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion, announced in October 2023 and closing in the second quarter of 2024, involving the issuance of XOM stock.
- In November 2023, the company acquired Denbury, Inc. for $4.8 billion in ExxonMobil stock.
- Share repurchases in 2025 amounting to $20 billion offset one-third of the shares issued for the Pioneer transaction.
Outbound Investments
- ExxonMobil entered an agreement to merge with Pioneer Natural Resources in October 2023 in a $59.5 billion all-stock transaction.
- In November 2023, ExxonMobil acquired Denbury, Inc. for $4.8 billion in ExxonMobil stock to gain the largest owned and operated CO2 pipeline network in the United States.
- The company is pursuing up to $30 billion in lower-emission opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with approximately 65% of this investment aimed at reducing emissions for third-party customers through carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and lithium solutions.
Capital Expenditures
- ExxonMobil's capital and exploration expenditures were $16.6 billion in 2021 and $22.7 billion in 2022.
- Capital expenditures were $21.919 billion in 2023, $24.306 billion in 2024, and $28.358 billion in 2025.
- The company expects cash capital expenditures to be in the range of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2025, driven by the inclusion of Pioneer and investments in new businesses. From 2026 to 2030, capital expenditures are projected to be between $28 billion and $33 billion annually, primarily focused on high-return projects in the Permian Basin, Guyana, global LNG expansion, and lower-emission solutions.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 175.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 119.6 |
| Rev LTM | 130,096 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,480 |
| FCF LTM | 5,778 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,090 |
| CFO LTM | 13,820 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,244 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -22.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 119.6 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.0 |
| P/E | 20.9 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 50.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 290,317 | 310,516 | 320,122 | 371,872 | 208,906 |
| Upstream | 101,795 | 103,573 | 85,527 | 116,898 | 21,797 |
| Chemical Products | 32,310 | 34,118 | 33,899 | 41,901 | 28,628 |
| Specialty Products | 20,403 | 21,288 | 21,532 | 23,291 | 17,331 |
| Intersegment revenue | -130,359 | -126,451 | -155,564 | ||
| Corporate and Financing | 277 | 30 | |||
| Total | 444,825 | 339,136 | 334,629 | 398,675 | 276,692 |
| $ Mil | 1999 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 5,886 | |||
| Chemical | 1,354 | 2,078 | 1,199 | 2,734 |
| Refining and Marketing | 1,227 | |||
| Other Operations | -557 | |||
| Petroleum | 9,675 | 8,717 | 6,654 | |
| Total | 7,910 | 11,753 | 9,916 | 9,388 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,354 | 25,390 | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 |
| Energy Products | 7,423 | 4,033 | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 |
| Specialty Products | 2,857 | 3,052 | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 |
| Chemical Products | 800 | 2,577 | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 |
| Corporate and Financing | -1,372 | -1,791 | -1,663 | -2,636 | |
| Total | 32,434 | 33,680 | 36,010 | 55,740 | 23,041 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 287,571 | 289,523 | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 |
| Energy Products | 79,917 | 75,542 | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 |
| Chemical Products | 35,356 | 35,137 | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 |
| Corporate and Financing | 35,155 | 42,351 | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 |
| Specialty Products | 10,981 | 10,922 | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 |
| Total | 448,980 | 453,475 | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $156.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 659.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $146.37 | $136.68 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 7.2% | 14.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.2% | 24.9% |
| Downside Capture | -122.23 | -89.27 |
| Upside Capture | -76.16 | -25.80 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -42.6% | -21.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.49 | -0.85 | -0.95 | -0.69 | -0.38 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -2.25 | -2.43 | -1.68 | -1.26 | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| Down Beta | -0.16 | -0.29 | -0.14 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.61 |
| Up Capture | -49% | -80% | -72% | -39% | -14% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 71 | 141 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 19% | -32% | -65% | -156% | -122% | 1% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 54 | 110 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 49.4% | 24.9% | 1.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 42.5% | 20.9% | 1.59 | 91.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.5% | 12.7% | 1.06 | -22.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.57 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.2% | 19.1% | 1.45 | 58.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.9% | 0.55 | -4.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.1% | 42.9% | -1.28 | -2.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 26.2% | 26.7% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.1% | 25.9% | 0.79 | 92.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 61.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 23.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 10.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 9.8% | 28.3% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.9% | 29.5% | 0.37 | 92.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 57.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 40.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 11.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.0% | -5.0% | -2.6% |
| 1/30/2026 | 0.6% | 4.0% | 10.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 1.5% |
| 8/1/2025 | -1.8% | -5.1% | 3.3% |
| 5/2/2025 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -1.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| 11/1/2024 | -1.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| 8/2/2024 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -4.2% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 16.0% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -9.2% | -9.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.0% | -5.0% | -2.6% |
| 1/30/2026 | 0.6% | 4.0% | 10.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 1.5% |
| 8/1/2025 | -1.8% | -5.1% | 3.3% |
| 5/2/2025 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -1.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| 11/1/2024 | -1.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| 8/2/2024 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| 4/26/2024 | -2.8% | -4.2% | -5.8% |
| 2/2/2024 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| 10/27/2023 | -1.9% | 1.4% | -2.5% |
| 7/28/2023 | -1.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| 4/28/2023 | 1.3% | -9.2% | -9.4% |
| 1/31/2023 | 2.2% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10/28/2022 | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2022 | 4.6% | -5.9% | 6.7% |
| 4/29/2022 | -2.2% | 3.6% | 13.1% |
| 2/1/2022 | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% |
| 10/29/2021 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -2.9% |
| 7/30/2021 | -2.3% | -2.9% | -3.9% |
| 4/30/2021 | -2.9% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| 2/2/2021 | 1.6% | 16.0% | 28.0% |
| 10/30/2020 | -1.1% | 0.6% | 18.4% |
| 7/31/2020 | 0.5% | 4.2% | -0.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -4.2% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 16.0% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -9.2% | -9.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2030 Structural Cost Savings | 20.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.00 Bil for 2030 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 20.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 27.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | 29.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 28.00 Bil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 6 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 7 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 7.2% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $25.2 Mil | 8.8% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $7.7 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Brandywine Trust Co | $7.5 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
XOM Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
ExxonMobil is successfully executing a production ramp in its highest-return assets, with latest-quarter revenue growth turning positive to 2.6%. However, this operational strength is offset by a strained balance sheet, where shareholder returns are not fully funded by cash flow. The investment case hinges on whether rising commodity prices can close this financial gap.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Vertically Integrated Commodity ProducerRevenue ≈ (Production/Sales Volume) x (Average Realized Commodity/Product Price) The spread between realized prices and the cost of supply, amplified by operational efficiency, product mix (high-grading to higher-value products), and trading/optimization activities.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Production from low-cost assets in Guyana and the Permian is hitting records, driving a return to top-line growth and forming 65% of output by 2030.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year.
- Advantaged assets are expected to comprise 65% of total production by 2030.
- Permian production reached a record 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day.
- Ten key 2025 projects are expected to add over $3 billion in 2026 earnings.
- Average production cost was $10.20 per oil-equivalent barrel in 2025.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's shareholder payout of $37.6 billion is not covered by its $18.8 billion in free cash flow, resulting in a funding ratio of 0.5. This gap has been filled by debt, with net debt nearly doubling to $39.2 billion year-over-year. A downturn in commodity prices could make this policy untenable.
- Net debt increased to $39.2 billion from $20.5 billion a year earlier.
- The payout funding ratio is 0.5, based on free cash flow of $18.8 billion.
- Accounts receivable grew 33.4% year-over-year, outpacing 2.6% revenue growth.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin compressed to 9% from 11.6%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Oil-Equivalent Production | 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day for Q1 2026 - Stable | The slight sequential decline in Q1 2026 was attributed to external disruptions, including the Middle East conflict and downtime in Kazakhstan. However, management stated that underlying production, excluding these impacts, grew 8% YoY, driven by record output in advantaged assets like Guyana and the Permian, which partially offset the headwinds. |
| Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth | 2.6% year-over-year for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 - Accelerating | The company has reversed a multi-quarter trend of revenue declines, posting its first positive year-over-year growth figure. This acceleration reflects both strong operational performance and a more favorable commodity price environment, as a company filing signaled higher oil prices would significantly boost Q2 earnings. |
| Permian Production | 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day (Q4 2025) | Measures output from a key 'advantaged' growth asset. Continued growth demonstrates execution on a core part of the company's strategy to increase low-cost supply. |
| Guyana Gross Production | roughly 875,000 barrels per day (Q4 2025) | Measures output from another key 'advantaged' growth asset, indicating successful project execution and ramp-up in a highly profitable region. |
Operational Strength vs. Financial Strain
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on accelerating production from high-return assets. They believe a commodity upswing, signaled by a potential $3.9 billion Q2 earnings boost from prices, will generate enough cash to fix the balance sheet and fund returns.
CORE TENSION
Can strong operational cash flow from new projects outpace aggressive shareholder payouts funded by a weakening balance sheet?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. A company filing signaled a major Q2 earnings boost from higher prices, providing a potential path to cover the financial gap.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a company funding shareholder returns with debt, evidenced by a 0.5 payout ratio and doubling of net debt. They worry this aggressive policy leaves the company vulnerable if commodity prices do not remain elevated.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in 2026 | Full Year Capital Expenditure Watch: The company plans to invest in the range of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2026. |
Friday, July 31, 2026 | Company Second Quarter Results Watch: ExxonMobil will release its second quarter 2026 financial results. |
late this year | Guyana Uaru Project First Oil Watch: The Uaru project in Guyana is expecting first oil. |
by the end of this year | Golden Pass LNG Train Two Completion Watch: Golden Pass LNG Train 2 is expected to be mechanically complete. |
10/21/2026 | Refining Margin Headwinds Watch: VLO's reported refining margins, throughput, and commentary on feedstock costs and product demand, particularly for gasoline and diesel. |
10/29/2026 | Geopolitical And Operational Fallout Watch: Updated financial impact quantification, recovery timelines for damaged assets, and any change to full-year production or capex guidance. |
10/29/2026 | Balance Sheet Strain Watch: Change in net debt, free cash flow generation versus shareholder distributions, and any commentary on future buyback pace or dividend sustainability. |
10/29/2026 | Chemical Segment Weakness Watch: Segment earnings for Chemical Products, commentary on industry margins, and any signs of demand recovery or capacity rationalization. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Marathon Petroleum Earnings Watch: Peer Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer ConocoPhillips Earnings Watch: Peer ConocoPhillips (COP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-08 | Nigeria Oilfield Investment Details: ExxonMobil and its partners will invest $1 billion in the Usan Infill Project offshore Nigeria, a development expected to add 40,000 barrels per day of oil production. | -3.0% $141.69 -> $137.46 |
2026-07-07 | Signals Higher Q2 Earnings Details: The company signaled that changes in oil prices would boost its second-quarter upstream earnings by $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion. | +3.4% $136.44 -> $141.13 |
2026-06-15 | Guyana Exploration Permit Sought Details: The company applied for environmental authorization for a 35-well exploration campaign in the Stabroek block, off Guyana's coastline. | -3.5% $147.01 -> $141.86 |
2026-05-01 | First Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company announced 2026 GAAP earnings of $4,183 million, or $1.00 per share. Results were impacted by Middle East disruptions but showed strong underlying performance. | -0.4% $153.29 -> $152.65 |
2026-04-08 | Middle East Conflict Impacts Details: Escalating conflict in the Middle East and risks at chokepoints supported higher oil prices. The company disclosed disruptions affected assets in Qatar and the UAE, reducing global production. | -5.4% $162.81 -> $153.99 |
2026-03-10 | Board Recommends Texas Redomicile Details: The Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders approve changing the company's legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas, aligning it with its leadership and core operations base. | +0.8% $149.43 -> $150.56 |
2026-01-30 | Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Details: The company announced full-year 2025 GAAP earnings of 28,844. The results demonstrated progress in its transition to a high-margin manufacturing model with advantaged assets. | -1.5% $138.64 -> $136.56 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XOM trades at roughly 31% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.1x the market), around the 87th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CVX - Chevron
Higher-Margin Integrated PeerChevron offers exposure to the integrated oil and gas model but with a superior trailing-twelve-month gross margin of 30.2% compared to ExxonMobil's 20.4%, suggesting a better underlying cost structure.
COP - ConocoPhillips
Pure-Play E&P PeerConocoPhillips is a large exploration and production pure-play, avoiding the cyclical refining and chemical businesses. It has a significantly higher operating margin of 18.1% versus ExxonMobil's 9%.
ExxonMobil is a technology-driven, integrated giant executing a disciplined strategy to lower its breakeven costs and increase earnings power by focusing investment on a concentrated portfolio of 'advantaged' oil, gas, and specialty product assets.
The company is transforming to be more profitable and resilient across commodity cycles. It is achieving this by aggressively growing production from its lowest-cost, highest-return assets in the Permian and Guyana, expanding its LNG footprint, and divesting non-strategic assets. Simultaneously, it is leveraging proprietary technology to create new high-margin businesses in specialty products and low-carbon solutions, all while maintaining strict capital and cost discipline.
On-schedule or ahead-of-schedule project startups in Guyana and LNG; evidence of technology (e.g., lightweight proppant) improving Permian recovery rates; new long-term carbon capture contracts; sustained structural cost reductions.
Significant project delays or cost overruns; major operational outages in key production areas; failure of new technologies to scale commercially; a sustained collapse in oil and gas prices that challenges the economics of new projects.
Short-term commodity price fluctuations; minor, non-recurring operational issues; quarterly earnings misses due to derivative timing effects that are expected to reverse.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution and ramp-up of its 10 key 2025 projects, which are expected to add over $3 billion in earnings in 2026, and continued production growth in Guyana and the Permian demonstrating sustained capital efficiency.
Upstream
$101.8B TTM (23% of Total)What It Is
This segment explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), bitumen, and natural gas, which are sold to the global energy market.
Who Pays & How
Refiners, utility companies, and other large-scale energy consumers pay for crude oil and natural gas as essential feedstocks and energy sources. They rely on major producers like ExxonMobil for large, consistent volumes to meet global energy demand.
Competition
Energy Products
$290.3B TTM (65% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures, trades, and sells petroleum products, including fuels, aromatics, and catalysts. Products are sold through retail fuel sites under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands, and to industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Individual consumers and industrial customers pay for fuels and other petroleum products. Consumers purchase fuel for transportation, while industrial clients require these products for their operations. The company's global network of manufacturing plants and distribution centers ensures reliable supply.
Competition
Chemical Products
$32.3B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and markets a wide range of petrochemicals, including olefins and polyolefins, which are used in products for modern living.
Who Pays & How
Industrial manufacturers pay for petrochemicals as raw materials for a vast array of consumer and industrial goods, including packaging, appliances, and durable goods. They choose ExxonMobil for its scale, integration with refineries, and proprietary technology.
Competition
Specialty Products
$20.4B TTM (5% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and markets performance products, including high-quality lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins like Mobil 1.
Who Pays & How
Customers in the transportation and industrial sectors pay for performance products that help improve efficiency. They choose ExxonMobil for its proprietary technologies, world-class brands, and high-performance product attributes.
Competition
ExxonMobil — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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