ExxonMobil (XOM)
Market Price (8/13/2026): $158.2 | Market Cap: $660.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Market Price (8/13/2026): $158.2Market Cap: $660.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 60 Bil, FCF LTM is 31 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 59 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0% Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 60 Bil, FCF LTM is 31 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 59 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.8% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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ExxonMobil (XOM) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report Presented an Equilibrated Outlook.
ExxonMobil's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, reported on July 31, 2026, showcased robust GAAP earnings of $14.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, alongside a revenue beat of $114.53 billion against analyst expectations of $109.94 billion. However, this strength was counterbalanced by an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $3.52, which missed consensus analyst estimates that ranged from $3.56 to $3.68 per share. This divergence between strong overall financial performance and a missed EPS metric created a mixed signal for investors, preventing a significant sustained upward movement in the stock price immediately following the announcement.
2. Volatile Global Oil Prices Lacked Sustained Directional Momentum.
The period was characterized by significant volatility in global oil prices, which initially surged due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to a 46-month peak of $112.84 per barrel and Brent crude to $114.47 per barrel in April 2026. However, this upward pressure was subsequently mitigated by a temporary de-escalation of the conflict, which saw Brent crude fall below $70 per barrel by July 1, 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) further forecast Brent to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026. This fluctuation, with an initial rally followed by a softening of prices and a removal of the geopolitical risk premium, resulted in conflicting forces that largely offset each other, contributing to the stock's relatively stable overall price level over the period.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) stock has gained about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report Presented an Equilibrated Outlook.
ExxonMobil's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, reported on July 31, 2026, showcased robust GAAP earnings of $14.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, alongside a revenue beat of $114.53 billion against analyst expectations of $109.94 billion. However, this strength was counterbalanced by an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $3.52, which missed consensus analyst estimates that ranged from $3.56 to $3.68 per share. This divergence between strong overall financial performance and a missed EPS metric created a mixed signal for investors, preventing a significant sustained upward movement in the stock price immediately following the announcement.
2. Volatile Global Oil Prices Lacked Sustained Directional Momentum.
The period was characterized by significant volatility in global oil prices, which initially surged due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to a 46-month peak of $112.84 per barrel and Brent crude to $114.47 per barrel in April 2026. However, this upward pressure was subsequently mitigated by a temporary de-escalation of the conflict, which saw Brent crude fall below $70 per barrel by July 1, 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) further forecast Brent to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026. This fluctuation, with an initial rally followed by a softening of prices and a removal of the geopolitical risk premium, resulted in conflicting forces that largely offset each other, contributing to the stock's relatively stable overall price level over the period.
3. Cautious Analyst Sentiment and Constrained Price Targets Tempered Expectations.
Analyst sentiment leading into and following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings reports reflected a generally cautious outlook, contributing to the stock's sideways trend. As of early August 2026, the consensus rating from 20 analysts was "Hold," with an average price target of $161.55. Several firms, including Bank of America Securities, downgraded ExxonMobil's rating to Neutral, while Mizuho and TD Cowen lowered their price targets to $170 and $155, respectively, in late July 2026. These analyst projections, with limited upside from the prevailing stock price (which ranged from approximately $153.29 in April to $155.46 in August 2026), indicated a lack of strong conviction for significant near-term appreciation, thus anchoring the stock's movement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.2% change in XOM stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 153.29 | 159.75 | 4.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 323,905 | 361,060 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 9.1% | 1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 20.4 | -9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,236 | 4,174 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 4.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | -41.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 2.3% | 91.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in XOM stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.52 | 159.75 | 14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 324,924 | 361,060 | 11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 9.1% | -1.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.0 | 20.4 | 2.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,285 | 4,174 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.9% | -38.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.3% | 91.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47.7% change in XOM stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.19 | 159.75 | 47.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,894 | 361,060 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 9.1% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 20.4 | 42.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,372 | 4,174 | 4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 47.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 47.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.3% | -23.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 43.3% | 90.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.7% change in XOM stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 215.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.01 | 159.75 | 64.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 394,585 | 361,060 | -8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 9.1% | -42.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.5 | 20.4 | 215.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,102 | 4,174 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 64.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.7% | 14.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 52.5% | 90.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 35% | 381% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 65% | 415% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -17% | -21% | -18% | -15% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -29% | -23% | -30% | -25% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 123 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1190 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ExxonMobil (XOM)
ExxonMobil (XOM) is a global energy and petrochemical company primarily engaged in exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas. Operating through its Upstream segment, the company extracts these vital resources from significant global reserves, boasting thousands of net operated wells. This core activity forms the foundation of its extensive operations, making it a major player in the world's energy supply.
Beyond resource extraction, ExxonMobil transforms these raw materials into a wide array of products through its Downstream and Chemical segments. The Downstream business refines crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, lubricants, and jet fuel, which are then traded, transported, and sold to consumers and businesses worldwide. Concurrently, the Chemical segment manufactures essential petrochemicals like olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, serving diverse industrial applications such as plastics, packaging, and various specialty products.
The company also extends its operations into emerging energy solutions, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production, and biofuels, reflecting its involvement in the evolving energy landscape. ExxonMobil's primary customers and markets are global, encompassing individual consumers who rely on its fuels, industrial sectors utilizing its petrochemicals, and various businesses dependent on its comprehensive range of energy and specialty products.
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- It's like Cargill but for energy – a global giant that finds, processes, and sells the world's essential oil, gas, and chemical products.
- Think of it as the General Electric of global energy – a massive industrial powerhouse focused on extracting, refining, and distributing oil, gas, and chemicals.
- It's like Coca-Cola for the world's energy supply – a universally present, long-standing company providing the fundamental fuels and materials for daily life.
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- Crude Oil: ExxonMobil explores, produces, trades, transports, and sells crude oil.
- Natural Gas: ExxonMobil explores, produces, trades, transports, and sells natural gas.
- Petroleum Products: The company manufactures, trades, transports, and sells a variety of refined petroleum products.
- Petrochemicals: ExxonMobil manufactures and sells petrochemicals such as olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics.
- Carbon Capture & Storage: This service involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions and storing them safely.
- Hydrogen: The company is involved in the production and sale of hydrogen.
- Biofuels: ExxonMobil produces and sells various types of biofuels.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) primarily sells to other companies, operating across its Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. Due to the broad and diversified nature of its products, which include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and petrochemicals, ExxonMobil serves a vast number of business customers globally. Specific major customer companies are not publicly disclosed as no single customer or small group of customers accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.
However, its customer base can be broadly categorized as:
- Industrial Manufacturers: These companies purchase petrochemicals (such as olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics) as raw materials for producing a wide range of goods, including plastics, automotive components, packaging materials, construction products, and consumer goods.
- Transportation and Logistics Companies: This category includes airlines, shipping lines, and trucking fleets that rely on ExxonMobil for refined fuels (e.g., jet fuel, marine fuels, diesel) and lubricants to power their operations.
- Other Energy and Utility Companies: This encompasses independent refiners, natural gas distributors, and power generation companies that purchase crude oil, natural gas, or wholesale refined products.
In addition to its significant business-to-business (B2B) sales, ExxonMobil also serves Individual Consumers through its global network of Exxon and Mobil branded service stations, where customers purchase gasoline, diesel, and convenience items.
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- Schlumberger (SLB)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- Baker Hughes (BKR)
- TechnipFMC (FTI)
- Fluor Corporation (FLR)
- SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS)
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Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst. He advanced through a number of domestic and international assignments within Exxon Company International, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Mr. Woods served as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, where he managed global specialty-chemical businesses. He was appointed president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, and in 2014, he was elected senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Mr. Woods became president of Exxon Mobil Corporation and a member of the board of directors effective January 1, 2016, and was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2017.
Neil A. Hansen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Neil A. Hansen began his current role as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective February 1, 2026. He started his career with ExxonMobil in 2000 in Houston, holding various financial analyst and supervisory positions in the Upstream segment. He served as Financial Reporting Manager in Sakhalin, Russia, from 2006 to 2008, and later as the Audit Division Manager for U.S. Chemical in Houston. Mr. Hansen moved to corporate headquarters in Irving in 2009 as a Senior Financial Advisor. He was appointed Vice President of Fuels for Europe, Africa and the Middle East, based in Brussels, Belgium, a position he held until 2022, when he became Senior Vice President for Energy Products in Houston. Prior to his current role, he served as President, Global Business Solutions from May 2025.
Neil A. Chapman, Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined Esso Chemical Company in 1984 at the Fawley Refinery in the United Kingdom. He progressed through engineering, operations, planning, and commercial roles in various chemical affiliates in the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, and Hong Kong before the 1999 merger between Exxon and Mobil. Mr. Chapman served as ExxonMobil Chemical Company's Asia Pacific polyolefins sales manager and later as the project executive of the Fujian integrated refining and ethylene joint venture project in China. In 2005, he was appointed vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business, and in 2007, he became president of ExxonMobil Global Services Company. He was president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company from 2015 until joining the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018.
Jack P. Williams, Jr., Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams, Jr. joined Exxon in April 1987 as a drilling engineer in New Orleans, Louisiana. He held various technical, supervisory, and planning positions, including operations management assignments for the company's East Texas field areas, and Gulf Coast and offshore California properties. From 2010 to 2013, Mr. Williams was president of XTO Energy Inc., which ExxonMobil acquired in 2010. Prior to that, he served as vice president responsible for Asia projects in ExxonMobil Development Company. He was elected senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014.
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The key risks to ExxonMobil's business include the challenges posed by climate change and the global energy transition, the inherent volatility of commodity prices and market demand, and exposure to geopolitical and regulatory shifts.
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Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks: ExxonMobil faces substantial risks related to global efforts to address climate change and the accelerating energy transition. The company has received criticism for its environmental record and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. There is ongoing pressure from various stakeholders, including governments, consumers, and investors, to reduce carbon footprint and align business strategies with climate goals such as the Paris Agreement. This pressure translates into potential regulatory changes, increased compliance costs, and litigation risks. Furthermore, a shift towards lower-carbon energy sources could lead to decreased long-term demand for fossil fuels, potentially resulting in stranded assets for ExxonMobil's extensive oil, gas, and petrochemical investments.
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Volatile Commodity Prices and Market Demand Fluctuations: ExxonMobil's financial performance is highly susceptible to the fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and chemicals. These prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, including global economic growth rates, supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and the competitiveness of alternative energy sources. Economic downturns or recessions can directly reduce demand for energy and petrochemicals, adversely impacting the company's earnings and cash flows.
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Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: Operating as a global entity, ExxonMobil is exposed to a range of geopolitical and regulatory risks. These include the impacts of government policies, international trade tariffs, sanctions, and political instability or conflicts in regions where it has significant operations. Changes in environmental regulations, compliance requirements (such as those under the Clean Air Act), and potential litigation related to operational incidents or environmental impact can result in significant fines, remediation costs, and reputational damage.
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- The rapid global adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) threatens the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are core products of ExxonMobil's Downstream segment.
- The accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, threatens the demand for crude oil and natural gas in power generation and industrial applications, impacting ExxonMobil's Upstream segment.
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For the public company ExxonMobil (symbol: XOM), here are the addressable market sizes for its main products and services:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 3,050.95 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3,188.67 billion in 2026. Another report indicates a global market volume of 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025. Asia Pacific was the largest region in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 895.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 918.7 billion in 2026. Another source reported the natural gas market size as USD 1.2 trillion in 2024, projected to reach USD 1.9 trillion by 2030. North America dominated with a 28.2% revenue share in 2025. Asia-Pacific is also expected to dominate the natural gas market.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size was valued at USD 735.36 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to be worth USD 769.92 billion in 2025. Another estimate for the global market size was USD 3,128.22 billion in 2025, growing to USD 3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global market in 2020 with a share of 32.02%, and North America is also a significant market, with the United States holding approximately 45% of the North American market.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 641.01 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 973.10 million by 2030. Other reports state the global petrochemical market size was estimated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 743.50 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific held the largest market share of 46.9% in 2024.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture and storage market was valued at USD 8.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate valued the global market size at USD 4.51 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 5.31 billion in 2026. North America dominated the market with a market share of 59.65% in 2025.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at USD 214.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 226.1 billion in 2026. Another source reported the global hydrogen market size at USD 282.63 billion in 2025. Asia Pacific dominated the hydrogen market and recorded the highest market share of 36% in 2025. North America is observed to be the fastest-growing market during the forecast period.
- Biofuels: The global biofuels market size was valued at USD 141.99 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 151.96 billion in 2026. Another report estimated the market size at USD 138.11 billion in 2026. North America was the most significant market shareholder in 2025, accounting for 37.8% of global revenue.
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ExxonMobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Increased Upstream Production from Advantaged Assets: A significant driver of revenue growth is expected from increased production in key advantaged assets. The company is targeting Permian Basin production to reach approximately 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, supported by synergies from the Pioneer acquisition. Additionally, record production and development pace in Guyana, with projects like Oahu, Whiptail, and Hammerhead underway, will contribute to upstream growth. Furthermore, the startup of Golden Pass LNG Train 1 and progress toward final investment decisions on LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique are expected to increase LNG exports.
- Growth in Product Solutions and High-Value Products: ExxonMobil expects substantial earnings growth from its Product Solutions business, focusing on high-value products and a recovery in its Chemical Products segment. High-value products, including new businesses such as Proxxima™ systems, advanced lubricants, and revolutionary battery anode graphite, are projected to contribute over 40% of earnings potential by 2030. The company is also seeing margin recovery in the Chemical Products segment as market conditions normalize.
- Ongoing Structural Cost Reductions and Operational Efficiencies: The company's continued focus on structural cost savings and operational efficiencies is a crucial driver for enhancing financial performance and expanding margins. ExxonMobil aims to achieve billions in structural cost savings by 2027 and beyond, leading to improved unit earnings and stronger profitability across its operations.
- Expansion in Low Carbon Solutions: ExxonMobil is strategically investing in its Low Carbon Solutions business, particularly in carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, and hydrogen production. While the pace of these investments is subject to policy support and market formation, these initiatives are expected to generate significant earnings, with opportunities projected to exceed $1 billion a year in earnings by 2030 and potentially reaching $13 billion by 2040. The company has established large-scale CCS systems along the U.S. Gulf Coast and is developing lower-emission fuels to meet future energy demands.
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Share Repurchases
- ExxonMobil made $14.9 billion in share repurchases in 2022 and authorized up to $35 billion of cumulative share repurchases for 2023-2024.
- The company's annual share repurchases were $17.748 billion in 2023 and $19.629 billion in 2024.
- In 2025, ExxonMobil repurchased $20.0 billion in shares and plans to repurchase $20 billion more through 2026.
Share Issuance
- ExxonMobil agreed to an all-stock merger with Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion, announced in October 2023 and closing in the second quarter of 2024, involving the issuance of XOM stock.
- In November 2023, the company acquired Denbury, Inc. for $4.8 billion in ExxonMobil stock.
- Share repurchases in 2025 amounting to $20 billion offset one-third of the shares issued for the Pioneer transaction.
Outbound Investments
- ExxonMobil entered an agreement to merge with Pioneer Natural Resources in October 2023 in a $59.5 billion all-stock transaction.
- In November 2023, ExxonMobil acquired Denbury, Inc. for $4.8 billion in ExxonMobil stock to gain the largest owned and operated CO2 pipeline network in the United States.
- The company is pursuing up to $30 billion in lower-emission opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with approximately 65% of this investment aimed at reducing emissions for third-party customers through carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and lithium solutions.
Capital Expenditures
- ExxonMobil's capital and exploration expenditures were $16.6 billion in 2021 and $22.7 billion in 2022.
- Capital expenditures were $21.919 billion in 2023, $24.306 billion in 2024, and $28.358 billion in 2025.
- The company expects cash capital expenditures to be in the range of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2025, driven by the inclusion of Pioneer and investments in new businesses. From 2026 to 2030, capital expenditures are projected to be between $28 billion and $33 billion annually, primarily focused on high-return projects in the Permian Basin, Guyana, global LNG expansion, and lower-emission solutions.
Peer Outperformance in Integrated Oil & Gas
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | ExxonMobil | 0.0% | 20.4x | 55.3% | 57.9% | 233.1% | — |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | -0.2% | 15.2x | 59.9% | 153.3% | 442.4% | +209pp |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | 0.2% | 8.4x | 109.3% | 67.5% | 316.6% | +83pp |
| SU | Suncor Energy | 3.4% | 8.4x | 70.2% | 127.7% | 314.0% | +81pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 107.0% | 110.1% | 322.1% | PBF 791% · MPC 563% · VLO 482% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 23 | 33.8% | 108.2% | 246.0% | INSW 828% · TNK 743% · LPG 705% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas ← | 7 | 44.0% | 57.9% | 233.1% | IMO 442% · CVE 317% · SU 314% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | 25.5% | 56.0% | 171.5% | EU 1284% · LEU 700% · CCJ 499% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 35 | 65.4% | 41.6% | 138.9% | FTI 1015% · SEI 859% · TDW 714% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 8 | 78.5% | -2.8% | 116.4% | VAL 232% · BORR 226% · PDS 165% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 51 | 21.7% | 1.7% | 107.0% | KGEI 9544% · OBE 6287% · EP 2613% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 178.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 127.6 |
| Rev LTM | 146,487 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12,709 |
| FCF LTM | 11,510 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,610 |
| CFO LTM | 19,526 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 50.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 50.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 127.6 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 15.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 290,317 | 310,516 | 320,122 | 371,872 | 250,738 |
| Upstream | 101,795 | 103,573 | 85,527 | 116,898 | 71,894 |
| Chemical Products | 32,310 | 34,118 | 33,899 | 41,901 | 38,703 |
| Specialty Products | 20,403 | 21,288 | 21,532 | 23,291 | 20,273 |
| Intersegment revenue | -155,323 | -105,173 | |||
| Corporate and Financing | 257 | ||||
| Total | 444,825 | 469,495 | 461,080 | 398,639 | 276,692 |
| $ Mil | 1999 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 5,886 | |||
| Chemical | 1,354 | 2,078 | 1,199 | 2,734 |
| Refining and Marketing | 1,227 | |||
| Other Operations | -557 | |||
| Petroleum | 9,675 | 8,717 | 6,654 | |
| Total | 7,910 | 11,753 | 9,916 | 9,388 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,354 | 25,390 | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 |
| Energy Products | 7,423 | 4,033 | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 |
| Specialty Products | 2,857 | 3,052 | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 |
| Chemical Products | 800 | 2,577 | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 |
| Corporate and Financing | -1,663 | -2,636 | |||
| Total | 32,434 | 35,052 | 37,801 | 55,740 | 23,041 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 287,571 | 289,523 | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 |
| Energy Products | 79,917 | 75,542 | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 |
| Chemical Products | 35,356 | 35,137 | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 |
| Corporate and Financing | 35,155 | 42,351 | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 |
| Specialty Products | 10,981 | 10,922 | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 |
| Total | 448,980 | 453,475 | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $159.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 671.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $147.24 | $139.86 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 8.5% | 14.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 25.4% |
| Downside Capture | -133.40 | -104.89 |
| Upside Capture | -82.50 | -29.99 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -41.1% | -24.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.10 | -0.68 | -0.94 | -0.81 | -0.46 | 0.23 |
| Up Beta | 0.34 | -1.33 | -1.68 | -1.13 | -0.79 | 0.26 |
| Down Beta | -1.20 | -0.07 | -0.39 | -0.07 | 0.18 | 0.61 |
| Up Capture | -47% | -45% | -66% | -48% | -16% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 34 | 70 | 143 | 400 |
| Down Capture | -279% | -104% | -127% | -177% | -170% | -26% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 29 | 56 | 108 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 56.0% | 25.3% | 1.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 48.6% | 21.6% | 1.74 | 90.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.6% | 12.8% | 1.32 | -24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 31.4% | 28.4% | 0.95 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.9% | 20.1% | 1.48 | 59.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 13.8% | 0.73 | -6.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.5% | 42.9% | -1.33 | -2.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 27.6% | 26.7% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.6% | 25.8% | 0.84 | 92.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 18.6% | 0.83 | 9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 61.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.9% | 52.8% | 0.37 | 9.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 11.0% | 28.3% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.7% | 29.6% | 0.40 | 92.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.36 | 57.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 39.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.9% | 66.1% | 1.01 | 11.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 6 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 7 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 13, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 7.2% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $25.2 Mil | 8.8% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $7.7 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Brandywine Trust Co | $7.5 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
XOM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on tangible execution in high-return areas. The company set a production record of 1.8 million barrels per day in the Permian and is achieving accelerated cost recovery in Guyana. These structural gains, combined with $16.3 billion in cost savings, are building a more resilient cash flow profile, even as geopolitical events create near-term volatility.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerVolume Produced x Average Realized Commodity Price Margin capture, driven by the spread between commodity prices and the low cost of supply from advantaged assets, plus structural cost reductions.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful portfolio transformation is underway, with low-cost assets delivering record volumes.
- Permian production hit a record 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in Q2 2026.
- Guyana delivered gross production of approximately 900,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026.
- Cumulative structural cost savings reached $16.3 billion relative to 2019 levels.
- Excluding Middle East disruptions, Q2 production was the highest in over two decades.
PRIMARY RISK
Exceptionally high refining margins may be obscuring a structural profitability gap, with trailing operating margins of 10.7% lagging key peers.
- Global refining margins were 'sharply above' the 10-year range in Q2 2026.
- Trailing operating margin of 10.7% is below Chevron's 12.4% and Occidental's 27.1%.
- Middle East disruptions reduced Q2 Upstream earnings by $1,060 million.
- Trailing gross margin compressed 1.9 percentage points year-over-year to 20.6%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Oil-Equivalent Production | 4.514 million oil-equivalent barrels per day for Q2 2026 - Stable | The year-over-year decline was explicitly driven by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Management noted this was a temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production. This was largely offset by strong growth in advantaged assets like Guyana and the Permian, with production excluding the Middle East reaching its highest level in over two decades. |
| Refinery Throughput | barrels per day for 2Q 2026 - Stable | The decline in refinery throughput was attributed to scheduled maintenance and supply disruptions in the Middle East impacting global operations. Despite the lower volume, management highlighted that U.S. Gulf Coast operations ran reliably and delivered record second-quarter diesel production, indicating strong performance where operations were not constrained. |
| Structural Cost Savings | $16.3 billion (cumulative vs 2019) (First six months of 2026) | Market rewards The company has a stated plan to get to $20 billion by 2030.. This non-GAAP metric tracks sustainable decreases in cash operating expenses, indicating management's success in improving efficiency and offsetting inflation. |
Advantaged Growth vs. Cyclical Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe record output from low-cost assets like the Permian (1.8M boe/d) and structural cost cuts ($16.3B) are creating a fundamentally more profitable company.
CORE TENSION
Can structural volume growth from advantaged assets offset the risk of normalizing refining margins and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, which the market punished last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management is delivering on its controllable growth projects and cost plans, demonstrating resilience even as external factors impact headline results.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that current results are flattered by historically high refining margins and that geopolitical disruptions, which cut Q2 earnings, are a persistent, unhedgeable risk.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/21/2026 | Refining Margin Normalization Watch: Peer commentary on refining spreads and product demand, particularly from early reporter Valero, for signs of market normalization. |
10/29/2026 | Persistent Middle East Volume Impacts Watch: Guidance on Q3 production volumes and any quantified financial impact from ongoing regional conflict in the next earnings release. |
10/29/2026 | Negative Post-Earnings Reaction Watch: The stock's price action in the two days following the Q3 earnings release, relative to the S&P 500. |
10/29/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: ExxonMobil is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer ConocoPhillips (COP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/9/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-31 | Second Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company reported Q2 earnings of $14.5 billion and cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, citing market tightness from global supply disruptions and conflict in the Middle East. | -1.2% $156.97 -> $155.06 |
2026-07-31 | Guyana Cost Recovery Milestone Details: An ExxonMobil-led joint venture recovered the billions of dollars invested to develop a large oilfield in Guyana. The country will now receive more oil money. | -1.2% $156.97 -> $155.06 |
2026-07-01 | Texas Redomicile Completed Details: The company completed its redomiciliation from New Jersey to Texas, aligning its legal home with its headquarters. The move was overwhelmingly supported by shareholders. | +0.3% $136.72 -> $137.09 |
2026-05-01 | First Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company announced Q1 2026 GAAP earnings. Management highlighted record production in Guyana and progress on LNG projects, including first LNG at Golden Pass. | -0.4% $153.29 -> $152.65 |
2026-04-08 | Stock Falls on Production Outlook Details: Shares fell 7.5% in early trade after the company disclosed the expected impact of the Middle East conflict on its first-quarter production, affecting assets in Qatar and the UAE. | -5.4% $162.81 -> $153.99 |
2026-03-10 | Board Recommends Texas Redomicile Details: The Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders approve changing the company's legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas, aligning its legal home with its headquarters and operations. | +0.8% $149.43 -> $150.56 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XOM trades at roughly 28% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market), around the 57th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CVX - Chevron
Integrated Peer with Higher MarginsChevron offers a similar integrated supermajor profile but has demonstrated superior profitability, with a trailing gross margin of 32.4% versus ExxonMobil's 20.6%.
OXY - Occidental Petroleum
Focused Upstream ExposureOccidental provides more concentrated exposure to the upstream segment with significantly higher profitability, posting a trailing operating margin of 27.1%.
ExxonMobil is a scale-driven, integrated commodity producer whose transformation towards lower-cost, advantaged assets (Guyana, Permian) is designed to generate superior returns and cash flow through volatile market cycles.
The company is leveraging its massive scale and integrated model to execute on high-return projects in Guyana and the Permian, which are delivering record production. This growth, combined with a relentless focus on structural cost savings, is strengthening its financial position. While exposed to commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks, the company's strategy is to build a robust portfolio that can outperform peers and fund significant shareholder returns across cycles.
Continued production growth in Guyana and the Permian, sustained high refining margins, and achievement of further structural cost savings.
A sharp, sustained downturn in oil and gas prices, significant operational setbacks in key growth projects, or an inability to manage costs in an inflationary environment.
Short-term stock price reactions to quarterly earnings beats or misses, which can be influenced by non-operational timing effects from derivatives and inventory accounting.
Repricing Catalyst
The accelerated cost recovery in Guyana, which according to a July report, means the country will now receive more oil money, leading to an inflection in free cash flow for ExxonMobil from the project.
Upstream
$112.1B TTM (22% of Total)What It Is
This segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The products are sold to the company's own downstream operations and to third-party customers in the energy market.
Who Pays & How
Refiners, utility companies, and other large-scale energy consumers pay for crude oil and natural gas as essential feedstocks and fuel sources. They choose suppliers based on reliability and price.
Competition
Energy Products
$334.0B TTM (67% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, aviation fuels, and heating oils. Products are sold to industrial, commercial, and retail customers.
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers, distributors, industrial users, and consumers pay for refined fuels for transportation, heating, and industrial processes. Reliability of supply and product quality are key purchasing factors.
Competition
Chemical Products
$34.4B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and other performance chemicals, to industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Industrial manufacturers pay for these chemical products as raw materials for a wide range of goods, including plastics, packaging, and industrial products. They value consistent supply and product performance.
Competition
Specialty Products
$21.2B TTM (4% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells specialty products, including lubricants and synthetic basestocks like Mobil 1, to automotive and industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Automotive, industrial, and commercial customers pay for high-performance lubricants and specialty fluids that enhance equipment efficiency and longevity. Brand reputation and product performance are key differentiators.
Competition
ExxonMobil — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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