Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (10/15/2026): $178.49 | Market Cap: $745.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (10/15/2026): $178.49Market Cap: $745.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 60 Bil, FCF LTM is 31 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 59 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0% Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 60 Bil, FCF LTM is 31 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 59 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has gained about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Surging Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices Driven by Geopolitical Tensions.
Global crude oil prices experienced significant increases during fiscal Q3 2026, with Brent crude rising approximately 18% and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 5%. This surge was primarily fueled by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, which injected a substantial risk premium into oil markets. Additionally, refined product prices saw considerable increases, with the national average for diesel surging 32% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to disruptions in refining capacity and ongoing conflicts. These higher commodity prices directly boosted revenue and earnings expectations for ExxonMobil, positioning the company for a strong financial performance.
2. Robust Q2 2026 Financial Results and Bullish Q3 2026 Earnings Outlook.
ExxonMobil announced strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 31, 2026, reporting adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, or $3.52 per share. The company also generated $23.6 billion in cash flow from operations and $17.2 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. This solid performance, coupled with the rising energy prices observed throughout fiscal Q3 2026, led to overwhelmingly positive market expectations for the upcoming fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report. Analysts project an estimated earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q3 2026 between $3.79 and $3.93, with anticipated free cash flow potentially reaching around $20 billion.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has gained about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Surging Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices Driven by Geopolitical Tensions.
Global crude oil prices experienced significant increases during fiscal Q3 2026, with Brent crude rising approximately 18% and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 5%. This surge was primarily fueled by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, which injected a substantial risk premium into oil markets. Additionally, refined product prices saw considerable increases, with the national average for diesel surging 32% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to disruptions in refining capacity and ongoing conflicts. These higher commodity prices directly boosted revenue and earnings expectations for ExxonMobil, positioning the company for a strong financial performance.
2. Robust Q2 2026 Financial Results and Bullish Q3 2026 Earnings Outlook.
ExxonMobil announced strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 31, 2026, reporting adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, or $3.52 per share. The company also generated $23.6 billion in cash flow from operations and $17.2 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. This solid performance, coupled with the rising energy prices observed throughout fiscal Q3 2026, led to overwhelmingly positive market expectations for the upcoming fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report. Analysts project an estimated earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q3 2026 between $3.79 and $3.93, with anticipated free cash flow potentially reaching around $20 billion.
3. Strong Operational Performance and Shareholder Return Initiatives.
ExxonMobil demonstrated robust operational execution, achieving its highest upstream production in more than two decades in fiscal Q2 2026, excluding Middle East disruptions. The company also reported record Permian production, aligned with its planned 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. Strategic investments continued, with the fifth Guyana production vessel on schedule to begin operations in fiscal Q4 2026, adding 250,000 barrels per day of capacity. Furthermore, ExxonMobil reinforced its commitment to shareholder returns by distributing $9.4 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, comprising $4.3 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases. The company has also realized nearly $16.3 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, enhancing its overall financial efficiency.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.3% change in XOM stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 135.84 | 177.01 | 30.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 326,008 | 361,060 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 9.1% | 16.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,202 | 4,174 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 30.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.1% | -47.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.3% | 85.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.7% change in XOM stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 167.43 | 177.01 | 5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 323,905 | 361,060 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 9.1% | 1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.6 | 22.6 | -8.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,236 | 4,174 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | -48.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 11.2% | 90.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.5% change in XOM stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.57 | 177.01 | 61.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329,385 | 361,060 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 9.1% | -3.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 22.6 | 47.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,331 | 4,174 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 61.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | -28.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 54.8% | 90.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.1% change in XOM stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 169.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.55 | 177.01 | 66.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 364,115 | 361,060 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 9.1% | -36.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 22.6 | 169.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,066 | 4,174 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 66.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 11.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 63.5% | 89.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 48% | 427% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 107% | 546% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 74% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -17% | -21% | -18% | -15% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -29% | -23% | -30% | -25% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 123 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1190 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
ExxonMobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a prominent global energy and petrochemical company. Its primary activities revolve around the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas across the United States and internationally. These raw materials are fundamental to its business, forming the basis of a wide range of energy and chemical products.
The company processes these raw materials within its integrated operations, manufacturing and selling various petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and lubricants, as well as petrochemicals such as olefins and polyolefins. Beyond traditional fossil fuels, Exxon Mobil is also engaged in developing and deploying lower-carbon solutions, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. The company serves a diverse global market, supplying essential energy and chemical products to consumers, industrial customers, and various other businesses worldwide.
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1. General Motors of energy.
2. Caterpillar for fossil fuels.
3. Amazon for the world's fuel and chemical needs.
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- Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Exxon Mobil explores for, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas.
- Petroleum Products: The company manufactures, trades, transports, and sells refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and lubricants.
- Petrochemicals: Exxon Mobil produces and sells a variety of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics.
- Carbon Capture and Storage: The company provides services for capturing and storing carbon dioxide.
- Hydrogen and Biofuels: Exxon Mobil is involved in the production and sale of hydrogen and biofuels.
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Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods is a career veteran of ExxonMobil, having joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst in Florham Park, New Jersey. He progressed through a variety of domestic and international assignments for Exxon Company International, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Woods served as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, managing global specialty-chemical businesses, and later as director of refining for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East for ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. He was appointed president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, and then elected senior vice president in 2014. Effective January 1, 2016, Woods was elected president of Exxon Mobil Corporation and a member of the board of directors, and on January 1, 2017, he was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Woods earned a Bachelor of Science degree in electrical engineering from Texas A&M University and a Master of Business Administration from Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Hansen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Neil A. Hansen assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation effective February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions from May 2025. His earlier roles include Senior Vice President, Energy Products for ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company from April 2022 to May 2025, and Vice President, Europe, Africa & Middle East Fuels from March 2020 to April 2022. Mr. Hansen has also held several senior finance positions within the corporation's Controllers, Audit, Treasurers, and Investor Relations departments, including Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Secretary from 2018 to 2020. He joined ExxonMobil in 2000 as a Financial Analyst in Exploration. Mr. Hansen received his MBA in Finance from the Thunderbird School of Global Management and is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Chapman, Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018. He began his career with Esso Chemical Company in 1984 in the United Kingdom, progressing through various engineering, operations, planning, and commercial roles in chemical affiliates across the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, and Hong Kong. Following the Exxon and Mobil merger, he served as ExxonMobil Chemical Company's Asia Pacific polyolefins sales manager and was the project executive for the Fujian integrated refining and ethylene joint venture project in China. His experience also includes roles in aviation fuels marketing, industrial and wholesale fuels, and as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business. He served as executive assistant to the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corporation and later as president of ExxonMobil Global Services Company. Mr. Chapman was appointed Senior Vice President for global polymers businesses in ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2011 and became President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2015. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in chemical engineering from the University of Surrey, England.
Jack P. Williams, Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams was elected Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014. Before taking on his current position, he served as executive vice president of ExxonMobil Production Company. From 2010 to 2013, Mr. Williams was president of XTO Energy Inc., which ExxonMobil acquired in 2010. His career at Exxon began in April 1987 as a drilling engineer in New Orleans, Louisiana. He held various technical, supervisory, and planning positions, including two years in the U.S. upstream planning organization, operations superintendent for East Texas field areas, and operations manager for Gulf Coast and offshore California properties. He also oversaw the company's North Slope and Cook Inlet interests in Alaska and served as deputy production manager for South China Sea operations in Malaysia. Mr. Williams is a graduate of Vanderbilt University with a Bachelor of Engineering degree.
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Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks
Exxon Mobil faces significant and growing risks associated with climate change and the global energy transition. This includes increasing regulatory and environmental pressures, such as stringent climate policies and carbon emissions regulations, which can impact operations and profitability, requiring substantial investments for compliance. Shareholders have consistently pressed the company for clearer disclosures on climate-change financial risks, particularly concerning the impact of global climate agreements like the Paris Agreement on its reserves and financial profile. The long-term reliance on fossil fuels also exposes Exxon Mobil to risks as the world shifts towards lower-carbon energy sources, leading to potential stranded assets and heightened climate-related liabilities. Furthermore, the company has faced scrutiny for historically downplaying climate science, despite its own scientists accurately predicting global warming, which poses reputational and litigation risks. The potential threat by Exxon Mobil to exit the European market due to strict sustainability regulations, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), further underscores the regulatory challenges it faces.
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Commodity Price Volatility
As a major explorer and producer of crude oil and natural gas, Exxon Mobil's financial performance is highly susceptible to the volatility of commodity prices. Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals can significantly impact the company's revenue, earnings, cash flow, and capital spending plans. Economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and imbalances between global supply and demand are key drivers of this market volatility. The company's strong cash flow generation is heavily dependent on sustained high oil and gas prices, and a prolonged decline in these prices would significantly erode its operating cash flow.
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Geopolitical Risks
Exxon Mobil's extensive international operations expose it to various geopolitical risks that can disrupt its business. These risks include political instability, conflicts, and regional tensions, particularly in critical energy-producing and transit regions like the Persian Gulf. Events such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil flows, could lead to operational disruptions and sharp spikes in crude prices, impacting global supply chains and the cost of operations. Such unforeseen events and supply disruptions can have an unpredictable and substantial effect on Exxon Mobil's facilities, production, and overall market dynamics.
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The accelerating global energy transition, driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies, electric vehicle adoption, and increasing governmental and societal pressure for decarbonization, poses a clear emerging threat. This trend directly challenges the long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, which constitute the vast majority of Exxon Mobil's core business operations across its Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. As alternative energy sources become more prevalent and cost-competitive, and as regulations favor lower-carbon solutions, the market for traditional fossil fuels faces a sustained and systemic decline.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these key areas, primarily on a global scale, are outlined below:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 3.05 trillion in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market was valued at approximately USD 1.48 trillion in 2025, and is projected to grow.
- Petroleum Products (Refined Products): The global refined petroleum products market is estimated to be USD 1.17 trillion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemical market size was estimated at approximately USD 700.53 billion in 2025.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies market was valued at approximately USD 4.57 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 68.92 billion by 2034.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at approximately USD 229.53 billion in 2025. For green hydrogen specifically, the market size was USD 12.31 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase significantly.
- Biofuels: The global biofuels market is projected to be valued at approximately USD 178.34 billion in 2025.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Increased Upstream Production from Key Basins and LNG Projects: Exxon Mobil projects significant growth in its upstream production, particularly from advantaged assets such as the Permian Basin in the U.S., Guyana's Stabroek Block, and various Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects globally. The company expects these high-return, low-cost-of-supply assets to constitute a substantial portion of its total production by 2030, with upstream production targeted to reach approximately 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by that time. Permian production alone is projected to exceed 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day beyond 2030. This growth is bolstered by strategic acquisitions, such as Pioneer Natural Resources, which are expected to generate significant synergies and boost production capacity.
- Expansion into High-Value Products within Product Solutions: The company is accelerating its shift towards a more profitable product mix within its Product Solutions segment, which encompasses its downstream and chemical operations. This strategy involves increasing the production and sale of high-value products, including performance chemicals, lower-emission fuels, and high-value lubricants, targeting substantial earnings growth by 2030. Exxon Mobil aims to transform lower-value molecules into higher-value products through strategic investments and proprietary technology deployment.
- Growth of Low Carbon Solutions Business: Exxon Mobil is making substantial investments in its Low Carbon Solutions business, targeting areas such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen production, and lithium supply for batteries. The company plans to pursue up to $30 billion in lower-emission investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with a significant portion directed towards reducing emissions for third-party customers. This segment is expected to contribute new revenue streams and generate considerable earnings by 2030 and beyond, driven by supportive government policies and market interest.
- Technological Advancements and Operational Efficiencies: The deployment of advanced technologies is a key driver for enhancing production and optimizing value across Exxon Mobil's operations. Examples include the use of lightweight proppant in Permian Basin wells, which has demonstrated increased recovery, and the scaling of proprietary Proxxima™ systems for various industrial applications. These technological advancements, coupled with ongoing structural cost savings, contribute to higher output from existing assets and improved overall profitability, indirectly boosting revenue by maximizing resource utilization and product realization.
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Share Repurchases
- Exxon Mobil repurchased $17.748 billion in shares in 2023, $19.629 billion in 2024, and $20.273 billion in 2025.
- The company is on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares in 2025 and plans to maintain this pace through 2026.
- Share repurchases were $154 million in 2021 and $4.675 billion in 2022.
Outbound Investments
- Exxon Mobil announced a $59.5 billion all-stock deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in October 2023, valued at $64.5 billion including net debt. This acquisition is expected to fortify domestic production in the Permian Basin.
- The company intends to divest approximately $25 billion of hydrocarbon assets through 2025 to focus on more profitable projects, with asset sales occurring in Asia, Africa, and Europe.
- ExxonMobil made a $100 million investment in the chip industry in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures were $18.407 billion in 2022, $21.919 billion in 2023, $24.306 billion in 2024, and $28.358 billion in 2025.
- The company expects cash capital expenditures to be $27-$29 billion in 2026.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on increasing oil and gas production in the Permian Basin, deepwater production offshore Guyana and Brazil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique.
Peer Outperformance in Integrated Oil & Gas
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | 0.0% | 22.2x | 59.6% | 74.9% | 239.7% | — |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | -0.2% | 15.0x | 49.1% | 128.5% | 330.1% | +90pp |
| SU | Suncor Energy | 3.4% | 9.9x | 94.0% | 147.4% | 297.3% | +58pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 142.2% | 170.0% | 379.2% | MPC 717% · PBF 594% · VLO 582% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas ← | 7 | 49.0% | 71.0% | 232.0% | IMO 330% · SU 297% · XOM 240% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 30.9% | 126.0% | 179.4% | INSW 1143% · LPG 894% · DHT 523% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 33 | 40.6% | 17.8% | 63.0% | SEI 1041% · FTI 837% · EFXT 619% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 51 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 61.9% | BTE 931% · PR 302% · CNQ 232% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 73.0% | 3.3% | 51.0% | VAL 145% · NE 92% · HP 51% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -24.4% | 14.2% | 37.4% | CCJ 240% · CNR 202% · LEU 162% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 201.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 157.2 |
| Rev LTM | 146,487 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12,709 |
| FCF LTM | 11,510 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,610 |
| CFO LTM | 19,526 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 50.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 50.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 157.2 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 18.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 65.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 47.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 290,317 | 310,516 | 320,122 | 371,872 | 250,738 |
| Upstream | 101,795 | 103,573 | 85,527 | 116,898 | 71,894 |
| Chemical Products | 32,310 | 34,118 | 33,899 | 41,901 | 38,703 |
| Specialty Products | 20,403 | 21,288 | 21,532 | 23,291 | 20,273 |
| Intersegment revenue | -155,323 | -105,173 | |||
| Corporate and Financing | 257 | ||||
| Total | 444,825 | 469,495 | 461,080 | 398,639 | 276,692 |
| $ Mil | 1999 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 5,886 | |||
| Chemical | 1,354 | 2,078 | 1,199 | 2,734 |
| Refining and Marketing | 1,227 | |||
| Other Operations | -557 | |||
| Petroleum | 9,675 | 8,717 | 6,654 | |
| Total | 7,910 | 11,753 | 9,916 | 9,388 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,354 | 25,390 | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 |
| Energy Products | 7,423 | 4,033 | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 |
| Specialty Products | 2,857 | 3,052 | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 |
| Chemical Products | 800 | 2,577 | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 |
| Corporate and Financing | -1,663 | -2,636 | |||
| Total | 32,434 | 35,052 | 37,801 | 55,740 | 23,041 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 287,571 | 289,523 | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 |
| Energy Products | 79,917 | 75,542 | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 |
| Chemical Products | 35,356 | 35,137 | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 |
| Corporate and Financing | 35,155 | 42,351 | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 |
| Specialty Products | 10,981 | 10,922 | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 |
| Total | 448,980 | 453,475 | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $177.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 738.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $162.58 | $149.80 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.9% | 18.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.7% | 26.0% |
| Downside Capture | -198.40 | -116.58 |
| Upside Capture | -65.08 | -40.01 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -43.3% | -32.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.22 | -1.10 | -1.11 | -1.11 | -0.57 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | -2.03 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -1.52 | -0.82 | 0.27 |
| Down Beta | -1.67 | -0.69 | -1.21 | -0.36 | 0.18 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | -89% | -103% | -78% | -62% | -24% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 35 | 65 | 138 | 396 |
| Down Capture | -152% | -226% | -281% | -207% | -229% | -58% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 29 | 61 | 113 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 62.6% | 26.0% | 1.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 60.4% | 21.9% | 2.06 | 90.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.1% | 12.7% | 0.96 | -32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.6% | 29.4% | -0.02 | -3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 49.3% | 20.7% | 1.82 | 59.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 13.7% | 0.15 | -10.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.9% | 43.7% | -0.63 | -8.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 28.4% | 26.5% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.1% | 25.5% | 0.83 | 92.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 24.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.9% | 0.76 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 61.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 22.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.5% | 51.8% | 0.34 | 8.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 12.2% | 28.4% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.2% | 29.6% | 0.41 | 92.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 57.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 39.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 10.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.5% | ||
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | 0.5% | ||
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.5% | ||
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | 0.5% | ||
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 6 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 7 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 15, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 7.2% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $25.2 Mil | 8.8% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $7.7 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Brandywine Trust Co | $7.5 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
XOM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on tangible execution in high-return areas. The company set a production record of 1.8 million barrels per day in the Permian and is achieving accelerated cost recovery in Guyana. These structural gains, combined with $16.3 billion in cost savings, are building a more resilient cash flow profile, even as geopolitical events create near-term volatility.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerVolume Produced x Average Realized Commodity Price Margin capture, driven by the spread between commodity prices and the low cost of supply from advantaged assets, plus structural cost reductions.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful portfolio transformation is underway, with low-cost assets delivering record volumes.
- Permian production hit a record 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in Q2 2026.
- Guyana delivered gross production of approximately 900,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026.
- Cumulative structural cost savings reached $16.3 billion relative to 2019 levels.
- Excluding Middle East disruptions, Q2 production was the highest in over two decades.
PRIMARY RISK
Exceptionally high refining margins may be obscuring a structural profitability gap, with trailing operating margins of 10.7% lagging key peers.
- Global refining margins were 'sharply above' the 10-year range in Q2 2026.
- Trailing operating margin of 10.7% is below Chevron's 12.4% and Occidental's 27.1%.
- Middle East disruptions reduced Q2 Upstream earnings by $1,060 million.
- Trailing gross margin compressed 1.9 percentage points year-over-year to 20.6%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Oil-Equivalent Production | 4.514 million oil-equivalent barrels per day for Q2 2026 - Stable | The year-over-year decline was explicitly driven by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Management noted this was a temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production. This was largely offset by strong growth in advantaged assets like Guyana and the Permian, with production excluding the Middle East reaching its highest level in over two decades. |
| Refinery Throughput | barrels per day for 2Q 2026 - Stable | The decline in refinery throughput was attributed to scheduled maintenance and supply disruptions in the Middle East impacting global operations. Despite the lower volume, management highlighted that U.S. Gulf Coast operations ran reliably and delivered record second-quarter diesel production, indicating strong performance where operations were not constrained. |
| Structural Cost Savings | $16.3 billion (cumulative vs 2019) (First six months of 2026) | Market rewards The company has a stated plan to get to $20 billion by 2030.. This non-GAAP metric tracks sustainable decreases in cash operating expenses, indicating management's success in improving efficiency and offsetting inflation. |
Advantaged Growth vs. Cyclical Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe record output from low-cost assets like the Permian (1.8M boe/d) and structural cost cuts ($16.3B) are creating a fundamentally more profitable company.
CORE TENSION
Can structural volume growth from advantaged assets offset the risk of normalizing refining margins and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, which the market punished last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management is delivering on its controllable growth projects and cost plans, demonstrating resilience even as external factors impact headline results.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that current results are flattered by historically high refining margins and that geopolitical disruptions, which cut Q2 earnings, are a persistent, unhedgeable risk.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/21/2026 | Refining Margin Normalization Watch: Peer commentary on refining spreads and product demand, particularly from early reporter Valero, for signs of market normalization. |
10/29/2026 | Persistent Middle East Volume Impacts Watch: Guidance on Q3 production volumes and any quantified financial impact from ongoing regional conflict in the next earnings release. |
10/29/2026 | Negative Post-Earnings Reaction Watch: The stock's price action in the two days following the Q3 earnings release, relative to the S&P 500. |
10/29/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: ExxonMobil is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer ConocoPhillips (COP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/9/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-31 | Second Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company reported Q2 earnings of $14.5 billion and cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, citing market tightness from global supply disruptions and conflict in the Middle East. | -1.2% $156.97 -> $155.06 |
2026-07-31 | Guyana Cost Recovery Milestone Details: An ExxonMobil-led joint venture recovered the billions of dollars invested to develop a large oilfield in Guyana. The country will now receive more oil money. | -1.2% $156.97 -> $155.06 |
2026-07-01 | Texas Redomicile Completed Details: The company completed its redomiciliation from New Jersey to Texas, aligning its legal home with its headquarters. The move was overwhelmingly supported by shareholders. | +0.3% $136.72 -> $137.09 |
2026-05-01 | First Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company announced Q1 2026 GAAP earnings. Management highlighted record production in Guyana and progress on LNG projects, including first LNG at Golden Pass. | -0.4% $153.29 -> $152.65 |
2026-04-08 | Stock Falls on Production Outlook Details: Shares fell 7.5% in early trade after the company disclosed the expected impact of the Middle East conflict on its first-quarter production, affecting assets in Qatar and the UAE. | -5.4% $162.81 -> $153.99 |
2026-03-10 | Board Recommends Texas Redomicile Details: The Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders approve changing the company's legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas, aligning its legal home with its headquarters and operations. | +0.8% $149.43 -> $150.56 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XOM trades at roughly 28% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market), around the 57th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CVX - Chevron
Integrated Peer with Higher MarginsChevron offers a similar integrated supermajor profile but has demonstrated superior profitability, with a trailing gross margin of 32.4% versus ExxonMobil's 20.6%.
OXY - Occidental Petroleum
Focused Upstream ExposureOccidental provides more concentrated exposure to the upstream segment with significantly higher profitability, posting a trailing operating margin of 27.1%.
ExxonMobil is a scale-driven, integrated commodity producer whose transformation towards lower-cost, advantaged assets (Guyana, Permian) is designed to generate superior returns and cash flow through volatile market cycles.
The company is leveraging its massive scale and integrated model to execute on high-return projects in Guyana and the Permian, which are delivering record production. This growth, combined with a relentless focus on structural cost savings, is strengthening its financial position. While exposed to commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks, the company's strategy is to build a robust portfolio that can outperform peers and fund significant shareholder returns across cycles.
Continued production growth in Guyana and the Permian, sustained high refining margins, and achievement of further structural cost savings.
A sharp, sustained downturn in oil and gas prices, significant operational setbacks in key growth projects, or an inability to manage costs in an inflationary environment.
Short-term stock price reactions to quarterly earnings beats or misses, which can be influenced by non-operational timing effects from derivatives and inventory accounting.
Repricing Catalyst
The accelerated cost recovery in Guyana, which according to a July report, means the country will now receive more oil money, leading to an inflection in free cash flow for ExxonMobil from the project.
Upstream
$112.1B TTM (22% of Total)What It Is
This segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The products are sold to the company's own downstream operations and to third-party customers in the energy market.
Who Pays & How
Refiners, utility companies, and other large-scale energy consumers pay for crude oil and natural gas as essential feedstocks and fuel sources. They choose suppliers based on reliability and price.
Competition
Energy Products
$334.0B TTM (67% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, aviation fuels, and heating oils. Products are sold to industrial, commercial, and retail customers.
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers, distributors, industrial users, and consumers pay for refined fuels for transportation, heating, and industrial processes. Reliability of supply and product quality are key purchasing factors.
Competition
Chemical Products
$34.4B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and other performance chemicals, to industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Industrial manufacturers pay for these chemical products as raw materials for a wide range of goods, including plastics, packaging, and industrial products. They value consistent supply and product performance.
Competition
Specialty Products
$21.2B TTM (4% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells specialty products, including lubricants and synthetic basestocks like Mobil 1, to automotive and industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Automotive, industrial, and commercial customers pay for high-performance lubricants and specialty fluids that enhance equipment efficiency and longevity. Brand reputation and product performance are key differentiators.
Competition
Exxon Mobil — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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