T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (10/30/2026): $149.4 | Market Cap: $158.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (10/30/2026): $149.4Market Cap: $158.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 29 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 33 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 29 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 33 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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T-Mobile US (TMUS) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Moderating postpaid account growth and increased customer churn dampened investor sentiment.
While T-Mobile added 274,000 postpaid accounts in fiscal Q3 2026, this represented a 31% year-over-year decline compared to 396,000 additions in fiscal Q3 2025. Additionally, postpaid phone churn increased to 1.1% in fiscal Q3 2026, exceeding the 1.0% estimate and rising 12 basis points year-over-year. This indicated an intensifying competitive landscape impacting subscriber acquisition and retention.
2. Weakness in wholesale and other service revenues weighed on overall performance.
T-Mobile reported wholesale and other service revenues of $679 million in fiscal Q3 2026, missing the average analyst estimate of $727.27 million and representing a 7.5% year-over-year decrease. This decline was partially attributed to the faster roll-off of the Boost MVNO, offsetting some of the strong growth seen in postpaid service revenues.
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T-Mobile US (TMUS) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Moderating postpaid account growth and increased customer churn dampened investor sentiment.
While T-Mobile added 274,000 postpaid accounts in fiscal Q3 2026, this represented a 31% year-over-year decline compared to 396,000 additions in fiscal Q3 2025. Additionally, postpaid phone churn increased to 1.1% in fiscal Q3 2026, exceeding the 1.0% estimate and rising 12 basis points year-over-year. This indicated an intensifying competitive landscape impacting subscriber acquisition and retention.
2. Weakness in wholesale and other service revenues weighed on overall performance.
T-Mobile reported wholesale and other service revenues of $679 million in fiscal Q3 2026, missing the average analyst estimate of $727.27 million and representing a 7.5% year-over-year decrease. This decline was partially attributed to the faster roll-off of the Boost MVNO, offsetting some of the strong growth seen in postpaid service revenues.
3. Cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 and increasing competitive pressures concerned investors.
Despite beating earnings and revenue estimates and raising full-year guidance for fiscal 2026, the market reacted modestly to T-Mobile's fiscal Q3 2026 results. Management highlighted expectations for "seasonal Q4 promotional intensity and rising churn" and a potential "slowdown in EBITDA growth and account growth in Q4" due to a staggered iPhone launch and higher device prices. The intensifying competitive environment, with increased subsidies from peers, contributed to investor caution regarding future growth prospects.
4. A broader slowdown in telecom sector capital expenditure growth impacted market outlook.
The wider telecommunications industry is experiencing a deceleration in capital expenditure (capex) growth. Worldwide telecom capex, after an approximate 5% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2026, is projected by Dell'Oro Group to peak within the next 18 months, with overall telecom network spending expected to drop as early as fiscal 2026. Dell'Oro forecasts worldwide telecom capex to grow at most a 1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030, indicating a maturing investment cycle that could temper growth expectations for T-Mobile and the industry as a whole.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.7% change in TMUS stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 166.77 | 147.29 | -11.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,530 | 93,816 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.6% | 12.0% | 3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 14.0 | -19.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,100 | 1,071 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -11.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | -3.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.5% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.1% change in TMUS stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 207.70 | 147.29 | -29.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,309 | 93,816 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 12.0% | -3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.0 | 14.0 | -33.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,111 | 1,071 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -29.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | -13.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -8.5% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.2% change in TMUS stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 234.43 | 147.29 | -37.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84,052 | 93,816 | 11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 12.0% | -17.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.7 | 14.0 | -35.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,133 | 1,071 | 5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -37.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.4% | -15.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | -13.7% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.6% change in TMUS stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.16 | 147.29 | 10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 78,578 | 93,816 | 19.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 12.0% | 54.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.8 | 14.0 | -46.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,193 | 1,071 | 11.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 59.3% | 27.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMUS Return | -14% | 21% | 15% | 40% | -7% | -26% | 15% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -27% | 26% | 25% | -3% | -17% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMUS Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 40% | 55% | 58% | 58% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMUS Max Drawdown | -29% | -12% | -16% | -12% | -28% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -42% | -29% | -21% | -27% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 15 days |
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -3.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 3.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 628 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1792 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.9% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3357 days | 47 days |
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -3.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 3.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About T-Mobile US (TMUS)
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is a prominent mobile communications service provider operating primarily across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. The company's core business revolves around offering essential voice, messaging, and data services, which form the backbone of connectivity for its broad customer base.
In addition to its communication services, T-Mobile provides a comprehensive range of wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, and various mobile accessories. It serves over 108 million customers through its distinct brands, T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile, targeting diverse segments within the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets.
T-Mobile reaches its customers through multiple channels, including its network of owned retail stores, the T-Mobile app, customer care, and company websites. It also leverages third-party dealers and distributors for device sales. The company maintains a robust infrastructure to support its operations, featuring approximately 102,000 macro cell sites and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites as of late 2021.
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T-Mobile US is like Verizon for mobile phone and data services.
T-Mobile US is like AT&T for wireless communications.
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- Mobile Communication Services: T-Mobile provides voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale customers.
- Wireless Devices: The company sells various wireless devices including smartphones, wearables, and tablets.
- Wireless Accessories: T-Mobile offers a range of accessories for mobile communication devices.
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T-Mobile US primarily sells its services and devices to individuals. The company serves the following three categories of customers:
- Postpaid customers: These are individuals and businesses who subscribe to T-Mobile's services and receive a monthly bill based on their usage.
- Prepaid customers: These are individuals who pay for their mobile services in advance, often through brands like Metro by T-Mobile.
- Wholesale customers: This segment includes other companies, such as Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and partners, that utilize T-Mobile's network infrastructure to offer their own services or products to an end-user base.
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- Ericsson (ERIC)
- Nokia (NOK)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Srini Gopalan, Chief Executive Officer
Srini Gopalan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of T-Mobile US, Inc. in November 2025, succeeding Mike Sievert. Prior to this role, he served as the Chief Operating Officer of T-Mobile. Mr. Gopalan brings extensive global experience in technology, telecommunications, and business operations, driving results through operational excellence, digital innovation, and customer-first strategies. He has been instrumental in advancing T-Mobile's digital transformation and strengthening execution and customer experience across the Consumer and Business groups, evolving the company into a more data-driven, AI-enabled, digital-first organization.
Peter Osvaldik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of T-Mobile US, Inc. on July 1, 2020. He oversees finance, supply chain, and related operations for the company. Mr. Osvaldik joined T-Mobile in January 2016 as Vice President, External Reporting and Technical Accounting, and was later elevated to Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer in June 2016. Before his tenure at T-Mobile, he held Chief Accounting Officer, Controller, and manager roles at Outerwall Inc. (formerly Coinstar). Earlier in his career, he worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Mr. Osvaldik earned dual bachelor's degrees in Accounting and Biochemistry from Western Washington University.
Mike Sievert, Vice Chairman
Mike Sievert is the Vice Chairman of T-Mobile US and of the company's board of directors. He previously served as Chief Executive Officer from April 2020 through October 2025. Mr. Sievert joined T-Mobile in 2012, holding various leadership positions including Chief Marketing Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and President. He is recognized as the architect of T-Mobile's "Un-carrier" strategy. Before T-Mobile, Mr. Sievert held leadership roles at Microsoft, AT&T, E*TRADE, IBM, and Procter & Gamble. He also co-founded Switchbox Labs, a startup that was acquired by Lenovo in 2009. Mr. Sievert currently serves on the Starbucks board of directors. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Jon Freier, Chief Operating Officer
Jon Freier serves as the Chief Operating Officer at T-Mobile US. He is also listed as the President of the Consumer Group.
Mike Katz, Chief Business & Product Officer
Mike Katz is the Chief Business & Product Officer at T-Mobile US. He is also identified as the President, Marketing, Strategy and Products.
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The key risks to T-Mobile US (TMUS) include intense competition and pricing pressure, high debt levels, and cybersecurity threats.
1. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure
T-Mobile US operates in a highly competitive wireless communications industry, primarily facing rivals such as AT&T and Verizon, as well as challenges from cable operators and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). This intense competition often leads to promotional activities, price wars, and pressure on service pricing and profit margins. The company's ability to attract and retain customers is significantly influenced by these competitive dynamics, which can negatively affect its business, financial condition, and operating results.
2. High Debt Levels
T-Mobile US carries a substantial amount of debt, which poses a significant financial risk. This high level of indebtedness can reduce the company's financial flexibility, increase its borrowing costs, and potentially place it at a competitive disadvantage compared to companies with lower debt burdens. Managing this debt requires consistent generation of significant free cash flow, and sustained pressure on profitability could impact its ability to service these obligations.
3. Cybersecurity Risks
Given T-Mobile US's reliance on digital platforms and its handling of sensitive customer information, the company is exposed to ongoing cybersecurity threats. Past cyberattacks have demonstrated the potential for operational disruptions, financial losses, and damage to the company's reputation. Continuous enhancement of cybersecurity measures is crucial to protect against these evolving threats and safeguard customer data and trust.
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The emergence of direct satellite-to-phone connectivity, being developed by companies such as AST SpaceMobile and Lynk Global, poses a potential threat. This technology aims to provide mobile communication services (including messaging, voice, and data) directly to unmodified smartphones from orbiting satellites, which could over time reduce reliance on traditional terrestrial cellular networks and infrastructure, particularly for basic connectivity in remote or underserved areas. While T-Mobile has strategic partnerships in this space, widespread independent adoption of satellite-to-phone services could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape and demand for traditional cellular network capabilities.
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T-Mobile US (TMUS) operates primarily in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands, offering mobile communications services and wireless devices. The addressable markets for its main products and services in the U.S. are substantial and growing.
U.S. Telecom Services Market
The U.S. telecom services market, which encompasses mobile communications services such as voice, messaging, and data, was estimated at approximately USD 468.08 billion in 2023. It is projected to reach USD 493.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2024 to 2030, reaching an estimated USD 725.68 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. telecom services market size at USD 451.7 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 601.2 billion in 2030 at a 5.88% CAGR. The mobile data services segment holds a significant portion of this market, accounting for 33.5% in 2023 and 39.54% of revenue in 2024.
U.S. Mobile Data Market
Specifically, the United States mobile data market was valued at USD 140.8 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 192.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.20%. Another source indicates a valuation of USD 172 billion in 2024, with an expected rise to USD 233.90 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 5.10%. The wireless segment accounts for the largest revenue share within the mobile data market.
U.S. Smartphone Market
For wireless devices, particularly smartphones, the United States smartphone market reached USD 142.83 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 209.28 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.33% from 2026 to 2033. Other reports suggest the U.S. smartphone market generated revenue of USD 81,864.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 96,451.3 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2025 to 2030. In terms of units, the market reached 160.6 million units in 2025.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
T-Mobile US is also a rapidly growing player in the Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) market, leveraging its 5G network for home internet services. The company added 1.7 million high-speed internet customers in 2024, reaching 6.4 million customers by year-end, and 6.9 million broadband connections by Q1 2025. T-Mobile aims to reach 12 million FWA customers by 2028.
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T-Mobile US (TMUS) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Continued Postpaid Account Growth: T-Mobile projects between 900,000 and 1.0 million postpaid net account additions in 2026, emphasizing accretive, high lifetime value customer growth. The company has shifted its key performance indicator (KPI) focus to postpaid accounts, reflecting their importance in value creation and customer relationship depth.
- Expansion of Broadband Services: The company is aggressively expanding its fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber offerings. T-Mobile aims to reach 15 million 5G broadband subscribers and 3 to 4 million T-Fiber customers by 2030, totaling 18-19 million broadband customers. This significant expansion beyond traditional mobile services is expected to diversify revenue streams.
- Growth in Postpaid Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA): T-Mobile forecasts postpaid ARPA growth of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by deepening customer relationships, increased adoption of premium rate plans, and customers choosing more feature-rich options through T-Mobile's value proposition.
- Expansion into Enterprise and New Business Segments: T-Mobile targets a double-digit revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its business segment by 2027. The company views enterprise penetration as a significant untapped opportunity and is actively pursuing this market, supported by new wholesale MVNO arrangements and its "T-Priority" offering for first responders. Furthermore, T-Mobile is exploring new sectors such as advertising and financial services.
- Digitalization and AI-Driven Enhancements: While primarily focused on efficiency, T-Mobile anticipates nearly $3 billion in savings by the end of 2027 from digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. These efforts enhance customer experiences and contribute to maintaining T-Mobile's "best value" positioning, which in turn supports customer acquisition and retention, indirectly fueling revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- T-Mobile US authorized a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion in December 2025, which is expected to consist of share repurchases and cash dividends and runs through December 31, 2026. This program builds upon a $14 billion shareholder return program announced in December 2024.
- In September 2023, the company announced a shareholder return program of up to $19 billion for the period from Q4 2023 to the end of 2024, following a prior $14 billion share buyback program that ran from October 2022 to September 2023.
- In Q3 2025, T-Mobile US spent approximately $2.48 billion on share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2025, T-Mobile US completed the acquisition of UScellular's wireless operations and spectrum for $4.3 billion ($2.6 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in assumed debt), adding over 4 million customers and enhancing rural coverage.
- In April 2025, T-Mobile US and EQT closed a joint venture to acquire fiber-to-the-home provider Lumos, with T-Mobile investing $950 million into the joint venture.
- T-Mobile US acquired Ka'ena Corporation, the parent company of Mint Mobile and Ultra Mobile, for up to $1.35 billion in March 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- T-Mobile US's capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $10 billion for fiscal year 2025, a revision from an earlier forecast of $9.5 billion, driven by continued 5G expansion, fiber rollout, and integration costs from the UScellular acquisition.
- For full year 2024, capital expenditures were guided to be between $8.6 billion and $9.4 billion.
- Capital expenditures were $9.8 billion in 2023, slightly exceeding prior guidance, and peaked at $13.047 billion in 2022.
Peer Outperformance in Wireless Telecommunication Services
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services ← | 3 | -22.0% | 9.4% | 34.7% | ECHO 316% · TMUS 35% |
| Publishing | 5 | 25.3% | 13.2% | 20.8% | NYT 34% · NWSA 34% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -17.8% | 0.4% | -24.2% | GSAT 237% · AD 131% · TDS 109% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 24 | 13.1% | 49.0% | -31.8% | IMAX 172% · CNK 118% · BATRA 79% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -34.1% | 18.7% | -67.2% | IRDM 22% · LUMN -56% |
| Advertising | 18 | -24.4% | 1.4% | -69.5% | APP 159% · OMC 42% · STGW 15% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -45.7% | -20.6% | -69.6% | TTWO 7% · RBLX -38% · PINS -55% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 32 | -38.4% | -22.7% | -71.6% | META 95% · GOOGL 94% · CARG -3% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -14.5% | -17.5% | -72.0% | FOXA 73% · NXST 34% · SIRI -48% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| The Paid-To-Wait Play On TMUS Stock: An 8.5% Yield | 07/15/2026 | |
| Years of Rewards: $51 Bil From T-Mobile US Stock | 05/21/2026 | |
| How to Get Paid to Buy TMUS at a Steep Discount | 04/28/2026 | |
| T-Mobile US Earnings Notes | 04/25/2026 | |
| Should You Buy T-Mobile US Stock? | 03/07/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold T-Mobile US Stock If It Fell 30%? | 02/27/2026 | |
| TMUS Stock Surges 11% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Strong Earnings | 02/18/2026 | |
| TMUS Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Raised Guidance | 02/14/2026 | |
| T-Mobile US Stock Now 21% Cheaper, Time To Buy | 02/06/2026 | |
| T-Mobile US Stock Now 27% Cheaper, Time To Buy | 01/29/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Current Price Of T-Mobile Stock A Strong Support? | 10/27/2026 | |
| What Just Happened To T-Mobile Stock? | 10/26/2026 | |
| Stocks At 52-Week Lows: Friday’s Full List | 10/24/2026 | |
| The Single Most Important Metric For T-Mobile Stock | 10/23/2026 | |
| What Is Going On With T-Mobile Stock? | 10/19/2026 |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 112.7 |
| Rev LTM | 108,410 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,742 |
| FCF LTM | 17,420 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 14,622 |
| CFO LTM | 30,222 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 27,882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless | 88,309 | 81,400 | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 |
| Total | 88,309 | 81,400 | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 |
| $ Mil | 2008 |
|---|---|
| Core Markets | 557 |
| Other | -18 |
| Expansion Markets | -71 |
| Total | 468 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless | 10,992 | 11,339 | 8,317 | 2,590 |
| Total | 10,992 | 11,339 | 8,317 | 2,590 |
| $ Mil | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Markets | 3,247 | 1,140 | 1,064 | 946 | 702 |
| Northeast Markets | 2,384 | ||||
| Other | 1,754 | 1,155 | |||
| Expansion Markets | 4,127 | 2,884 | 1,064 | 379 | |
| Total | 7,386 | 6,422 | 3,948 | 2,010 | 1,080 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $147.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 157.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/19/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $167.50 | $185.63 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -12.1% | -20.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.6% | 34.1% |
| Downside Capture | 13.38 | -17.48 |
| Upside Capture | -70.90 | -59.78 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -11.4% | -14.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.36 | 0.07 | 0.26 | -0.33 | -0.35 | 0.15 |
| Up Beta | -4.55 | -0.21 | -1.47 | -1.07 | -0.81 | 0.09 |
| Down Beta | -2.23 | -0.46 | 2.34 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Up Capture | -24% | 3% | 29% | -37% | -30% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 33 | 59 | 124 | 410 |
| Down Capture | 142% | 57% | 51% | -4% | -35% | 14% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 67 | 128 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -31.7% | 34.1% | -1.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -12.4% | 16.3% | -1.00 | 28.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 12.7% | 0.67 | -14.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.2% | 28.4% | 0.03 | -14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 49.5% | 20.6% | 1.83 | -2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.2% | 14.0% | 0.25 | 14.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 43.4% | -0.69 | -7.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 5.8% | 26.2% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 5.3% | 21.1% | 0.17 | 31.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.55 | 25.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.9% | 0.73 | -2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 28.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 12.7% | 27.1% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.2% | 22.1% | 0.40 | 46.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 43.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -0.5% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | -10.7% | -4.9% | -5.1% |
| 4/28/2026 | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.7% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -0.5% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | -10.7% | -4.9% | -5.1% |
| 4/28/2026 | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 8.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.2% | -0.0% | 0.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.1% | 2.0% | 5.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 0.7% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
| 2/1/2023 | 1.1% | -4.2% | -5.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | 3.9% | 1.0% | 5.2% |
| 2/2/2022 | 10.2% | 16.9% | 12.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | 5.3% | 3.5% | -4.7% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.4% | -1.9% | -4.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 10.8% |
| 2/4/2021 | -4.1% | -4.7% | -2.7% |
| 11/5/2020 | 5.4% | 8.1% | 13.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.7% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/29/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Postpaid Net Account Additions | Reported | 1.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 28.70 Bil | 28.75 Bil | 28.80 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 28.60 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 37.35 Bil | 37.40 Bil | 37.45 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 37.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 24.0% | 24.5% | 25.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 18.70 Bil | 18.75 Bil | 18.80 Bil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 18.60 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Postpaid net account additions | Reported | 0.95 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 1.05 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 28.40 Bil | 28.60 Bil | 28.80 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 28.40 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 37.10 Bil | 37.30 Bil | 37.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 37.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 18.40 Bil | 18.60 Bil | 18.80 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 18.40 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Postpaid net account additions | Reported | 0.95 Mil | 1.00 Mil | 1.05 Mil | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: 0.95 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 28.10 Bil | 28.40 Bil | 28.70 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 28.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 37.10 Bil | 37.30 Bil | 37.50 Bil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 37.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 18.10 Bil | 18.40 Bil | 18.70 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 18.35 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Postpaid net account additions | Reported | 0.90 Mil | 0.95 Mil | 1.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 28.00 Bil | 28.35 Bil | 28.70 Bil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 27.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 37.00 Bil | 37.25 Bil | 37.50 Bil | 10.2% | Higher New | Actual: 33.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | Reported | 25.0% | 25.5% | 26.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 10.00 Bil | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 10.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 18.00 Bil | 18.35 Bil | 18.70 Bil | 2.5% | Higher New | Actual: 17.90 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drobac, Daniel James | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9142026 | 178.33 | 772 | 137,671 | 6,262,510 | Form |
| 2 | Freier, Jon | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 190.00 | 4,799 | 911,810 | 41,261,850 | Form |
| 3 | Almeida, Andre | Chief Broadband, Ent. & Emerg | Direct | Buy | 5042026 | 196.18 | 5,097 | 1,000,016 | 8,798,595 | Form |
| 4 | Katz, Michael J | Chief Bus. and Prod. Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 195.81 | 5,000 | 979,050 | 35,623,807 | Form |
| 5 | Datar, Srikant M | Legacycap LLC | Sell | 3122026 | 218.25 | 1,000 | 218,250 | 2,366,486 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drobac, Daniel James | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9142026 | 178.33 | 772 | 137,671 | 6,262,510 | Form |
| 2 | Freier, Jon | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 190.00 | 4,799 | 911,810 | 41,261,850 | Form |
| 3 | Almeida, Andre | Chief Broadband, Ent. & Emerg | Direct | Buy | 5042026 | 196.18 | 5,097 | 1,000,016 | 8,798,595 | Form |
| 4 | Katz, Michael J | Chief Bus. and Prod. Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 195.81 | 5,000 | 979,050 | 35,623,807 | Form |
| 5 | Datar, Srikant M | Legacycap LLC | Sell | 3122026 | 218.25 | 1,000 | 218,250 | 2,366,486 | Form | |
| 6 | Datar, Srikant M | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 221.10 | 3,291 | 727,640 | 229,502 | Form | |
| 7 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 221.85 | 1,089 | 241,595 | 27,885,645 | Form | |
| 8 | Nelson, Mark Wolfe | Chief Legal Officer & GC | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 222.38 | 2,329 | 517,968 | 14,605,213 | Form |
| 9 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 220.07 | 13,911 | 3,061,394 | 27,901,563 | Form | |
| 10 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 214.94 | 80,000 | 17,195,200 | 30,241,186 | Form | |
| 11 | Nelson, Mark Wolfe | Chief Legal Officer & GC | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 219.69 | 6,274 | 1,378,335 | 14,940,245 | Form |
| 12 | Nelson, Mark Wolfe | Chief Legal Officer & GC | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 220.80 | 10,240 | 2,260,992 | 16,401,031 | Form |
| 13 | Claure, Raul Marcelo | Claure Mobile LLC | Sell | 2172026 | 217.57 | 550,000 | 119,663,500 | 193,899,254 | Form | |
| 14 | Long, Letitia A | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 210.32 | 1,457 | 306,436 | 1,143,720 | Form | |
| 15 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 214.25 | 22,500 | 4,820,625 | 61,317,481 | Form | |
| 16 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 216.97 | 22,500 | 4,881,825 | 66,977,759 | Form | |
| 17 | Katz, Michael J | Pres, Mkting Stgy & Prods | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 215.91 | 2,500 | 539,775 | 33,725,686 | Form |
| 18 | Gopalan, Srini | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 201.82 | 9,800 | 1,977,836 | 18,215,870 | Form |
| 19 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 220.46 | 1,374 | 302,911 | 128,321,765,881 | Form | |
| 20 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10292025 | 220.77 | 53,507 | 11,812,546 | 128,500,868,811 | Form | |
| 21 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10292025 | 220.69 | 64,426 | 14,218,067 | 128,467,259,499 | Form | |
| 22 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 220.03 | 856 | 188,342 | 128,095,527,544 | Form | |
| 23 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 221.14 | 34,721 | 7,678,324 | 128,746,668,584 | Form | |
| 24 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 226.17 | 64,426 | 14,571,546 | 131,683,735,186 | Form | |
| 25 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 229.26 | 64,426 | 14,770,365 | 133,495,247,632 | Form | |
| 26 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 228.85 | 64,426 | 14,743,759 | 143,607,670,070 | Form | |
| 27 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 228.57 | 64,426 | 14,726,052 | 143,449,923,913 | Form | |
| 28 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 227.02 | 64,426 | 14,626,149 | 142,491,367,579 | Form | |
| 29 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 227.75 | 64,426 | 14,672,831 | 142,960,828,607 | Form | |
| 30 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 229.05 | 64,426 | 14,756,662 | 143,792,371,427 | Form | |
| 31 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 226.15 | 64,426 | 14,570,175 | 141,989,768,497 | Form | |
| 32 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 228.42 | 64,426 | 14,716,104 | 143,426,598,886 | Form | |
| 33 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 227.03 | 64,426 | 14,626,836 | 142,571,197,428 | Form | |
| 34 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 226.17 | 64,426 | 14,571,096 | 142,042,461,845 | Form | |
| 35 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 227.31 | 64,426 | 14,644,755 | 142,775,151,015 | Form | |
| 36 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 224.60 | 64,426 | 14,469,866 | 141,084,586,002 | Form | |
| 37 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 229.21 | 64,426 | 14,767,017 | 143,996,640,498 | Form | |
| 38 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 230.41 | 64,426 | 14,844,462 | 144,766,671,157 | Form | |
| 39 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 234.42 | 64,426 | 15,102,853 | 148,634,670,198 | Form | |
| 40 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 239.54 | 64,426 | 15,432,577 | 151,895,074,750 | Form | |
| 41 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 238.11 | 64,415 | 15,338,035 | 151,005,669,702 | Form | |
| 42 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 238.12 | 64,426 | 15,341,079 | 151,025,189,453 | Form | |
| 43 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 238.98 | 64,426 | 15,396,567 | 151,586,835,996 | Form | |
| 44 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 238.38 | 64,426 | 15,357,820 | 151,220,715,109 | Form | |
| 45 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 238.41 | 64,426 | 15,359,653 | 151,254,122,006 | Form | |
| 46 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 237.75 | 64,426 | 15,317,438 | 150,853,722,243 | Form | |
| 47 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 238.51 | 64,426 | 15,366,453 | 151,351,812,509 | Form | |
| 48 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 239.18 | 64,426 | 15,409,111 | 151,787,381,206 | Form | |
| 49 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 239.34 | 64,426 | 15,419,593 | 151,906,061,192 | Form | |
| 50 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 237.65 | 64,426 | 15,311,037 | 150,851,931,964 | Form | |
| 51 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 240.65 | 64,452 | 15,510,123 | 152,767,280,434 | Form | |
| 52 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 241.65 | 64,426 | 15,568,670 | 153,421,394,424 | Form | |
| 53 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 240.84 | 64,426 | 15,516,372 | 152,921,537,540 | Form | |
| 54 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 240.08 | 69,840 | 16,767,251 | 152,454,889,143 | Form | |
| 55 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 242.45 | 69,840 | 16,932,502 | 153,974,347,687 | Form | |
| 56 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 243.47 | 69,840 | 17,003,859 | 154,640,230,897 | Form | |
| 57 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 253.07 | 69,840 | 17,674,497 | 160,756,974,141 | Form | |
| 58 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 252.94 | 69,840 | 17,665,051 | 160,688,721,338 | Form | |
| 59 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 252.55 | 69,840 | 17,638,092 | 160,461,128,949 | Form | |
| 60 | Deutsche, Telekom AG | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 256.44 | 69,840 | 17,909,905 | 162,951,835,227 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 30, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Element Capital Management LLC | $56.9 Mil | 22.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $2.1 Bil | 18.4% | 31 | TRIM -64.9% | 13F |
| 140 Summer Partners LP | $81.2 Mil | 7.2% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Act Two Investors LLC | $31.9 Mil | 7.0% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $14.5 Mil | 1.7% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $29.9 Mil | 1.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $14.0 Mil | 1.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $16.8 Mil | 0.6% | 20 | TRIM -90.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $42.9 Mil | 2.1% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $8.1 Mil | 1.4% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $16.8 Mil | 0.6% | 20 | TRIM -90.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $2.1 Bil | 18.4% | 31 | TRIM -64.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Softbank Group Corp. | $2.1 Bil | 18.4% | 31 | TRIM -64.9% | 13F |
| 140 Summer Partners LP | $81.2 Mil | 7.2% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $56.9 Mil | 22.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Act Two Investors LLC | $31.9 Mil | 7.0% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $29.9 Mil | 1.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $16.8 Mil | 0.6% | 20 | TRIM -90.8% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $14.5 Mil | 1.7% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $14.0 Mil | 1.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
TMUS Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on a successful pivot to higher-value customers, driving accelerated revenue per account over 4% in the latest quarter. Management is executing well, raising full-year cash flow guidance. This quality-focused growth and a 9.0% total shareholder yield are compelling, though slowing account additions warrant monitoring.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Subscription(Number of Postpaid Accounts) x (Average Revenue Per Account) Operating leverage from scaling its customer base on a largely fixed-cost network, supplemented by cost efficiencies from digital transformation and AI initiatives.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; the company is successfully trading lower account growth for higher-quality, more profitable customer relationships.
- Postpaid ARPA growth accelerated to over 4% YoY in Q3 2026, from 2% in Q2.
- Raised full-year 2026 guidance for postpaid ARPA growth to approximately 3.5%.
- Raised full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
- Total shareholder yield is 9.0%, funded by operations.
- Basic share count has been reduced by 8.6% over the last three years.
PRIMARY RISK
The 31% YoY decline in postpaid net account additions may not be a temporary pivot to quality, but the start of a structural market share loss as competitive pressures intensify.
- Postpaid net account additions fell 31% YoY in Q3 2026.
- Postpaid account churn increased to 1.09% from 0.97% a year ago.
- Inventory grew 30.2% YoY, far outpacing 7.4% revenue growth.
- The wireless market is described as reaching 'saturation' with 'highly competitive' dynamics.
- Operating expenses grew 10.5% YoY, outpacing 9.3% TTM revenue growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Postpaid Net Account Additions | 274,000 for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year decline in account additions is attributed by management to higher deactivations from broadband-only accounts, which have higher churn, and the temporary impact of a "rate plan modernization." The sequential trend is roughly flat, indicating some stabilization after a stronger Q2. |
| Postpaid Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA) Growth | 4% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | |
| Postpaid Account Churn | 1.09% (Q3 2026 (three months ended 9/30/2026)) | Represents the rate of postpaid account deactivations, providing a measure of customer retention and loyalty at the account level. |
ARPA Acceleration vs. Account Deceleration
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe accelerating ARPA growth above 4% is proof of a successful strategy shift to higher-value customers, which will drive superior cash flow and shareholder returns, making the slowdown in account additions a worthwhile trade-off.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating postpaid ARPA growth of over 4% offset the 31% YoY decline in net account additions to sustain industry-leading financial growth?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company raised its full-year guidance for ARPA, service revenue, and free cash flow, and the market reacted positively to the trade-off.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 31% YoY drop in account additions as a leading indicator of eroding competitiveness that will ultimately force a return to promotions, reversing the recent ARPA gains and pressuring margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 10, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A cash dividend of $1.17 per share is payable to stockholders of record as of November 25, 2026. |
01/26/2027 | Competitive Pressure From Peer Promotions Watch: Peer commentary on promotional intensity and subscriber growth, particularly from AT&T and Verizon, which could signal increased pressure on TMUS. |
1/27/2027 | Peer Comcast Earnings Report Watch: Peer Comcast (CMCSA) is scheduled to report earnings, offering insight into cable competition. |
1/28/2027 | Peers Charter and Verizon Earnings Watch: Peers Charter (CHTR) and Verizon (VZ) are scheduled to report earnings. |
02/09/2027 | Slowing Postpaid Growth and Churn Watch: Whether Q4 account additions and churn show the rate plan impact was temporary or a sign of worsening fundamentals. |
2/9/2027 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Execution on Restructuring and Cost Savings Watch: Updates on restructuring costs, synergy realization, and progress on reversing negative operating leverage in the next earnings report. |
in November | New T-Mix Plans Launch Watch: The company's new T-Mix plans, including Standard, More, and Loaded, will become available. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-28 | Q3 Earnings and Guidance Update Details: The company reported Q3 results and raised guidance for Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities, Core Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. | +0.9% $146.83 -> $148.08 |
2026-10-26 | New T-Mix Plans Announced Details: The company announced T-Mix, a new approach to wireless plans giving customers more choice and flexibility, available in November. | +0.2% $146.54 -> $146.83 |
2026-09-24 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: The Board of Directors announced a 15% quarterly dividend increase to $1.17 per share. | -0.1% $165.66 -> $165.43 |
2026-07-23 | Q2 Earnings and Negative Stock Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 postpaid net account additions of 277 thousand. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -6.0%. | -5.7% $189.84 -> $179.06 |
2026-06-02 | Member Month Customer Event Details: The company celebrated its T-Mobile Tuesdays program with a 'Member Month' event, driving T-Life app monthly active users to over 30 million. | -2.8% $185.67 -> $180.41 |
2026-04-28 | Fiber Joint Venture Expansion Details: The company announced definitive agreements to form two new strategic fiber joint ventures with Oak Hill Capital and another partner. | +8.4% $180.72 -> $195.97 |
2026-04-28 | Q1 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported Q1 postpaid net account additions of 217 thousand, up 6% YoY, and raised its full-year guidance. | +8.4% $180.72 -> $195.97 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TMUS trades at roughly 44% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (4.1x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
T - AT&T
Converged Network PlayAT&T offers a more mature strategy around bundling fiber broadband with wireless, creating sticky, high-value converged customer relationships which T-Mobile is still building out.
VZ - Verizon Communications
Incumbent ScaleAs the largest carrier by revenue, Verizon offers scale and a historical brand perception of network quality, appealing to investors seeking exposure to a market leader navigating a turnaround.
A share-taking disruptor in a mature industry, leveraging a superior 5G network and a value-focused brand to attract higher-value customers from incumbents while expanding into adjacent broadband and enterprise markets.
T-Mobile has successfully transitioned from a value-focused challenger to a network leader, breaking the industry's historical trade-off between network quality and price. This 'no trade-offs' proposition is attracting higher-value 'network seekers' and driving growth in postpaid accounts and ARPA. The company is monetizing its network capacity through its fast-growing 5G fixed wireless broadband service and making inroads in the enterprise segment, creating multiple vectors for sustained growth.
Continued industry leadership in postpaid account net additions, sustained ARPA growth above 4%, and market share gains in smaller markets and the enterprise segment.
A slowdown in postpaid account growth, compression in ARPA due to competitive pressure, or evidence that network performance leadership relative to peers is eroding.
Short-term promotional intensity from competitors, quarterly fluctuations in individual line metrics, or news related to minor brand initiatives.
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained execution on its strategy of attracting higher-value customers, as evidenced by continued strong postpaid account growth and ARPA expansion, leading to upward revisions in financial guidance.
Wireless
$92.2B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides wireless communications and broadband services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale customers. It also sells wireless devices and accessories to these customers through various channels including retail stores, websites, and national retailers.
Who Pays & How
Postpaid customers (81% of 2025 service revenue) and Prepaid customers (15%) pay directly for service plans and devices. Wholesale partners (4%) pay for network access to resell services. Customers are attracted by the 'Un-carrier' strategy, which aims to eliminate customer pain points and provide a combination of value, a leading 5G network, and a strong customer experience.
Competition
T-Mobile US — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Wireless Telecommunication Services Resources |
| Fierce Wireless |
| RCR Wireless News |
| Mobile World Live |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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