AT&T (T)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $24.43 | Market Cap: $174.8 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
AT&T (T)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $24.43Market Cap: $174.8 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 9.9% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 20 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 9.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 20 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
T Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement of AT&T (symbol: T) between August 31, 2025, and December 15, 2025:
1. Lowered 2025 Earnings Outlook. AT&T's profit forecast for 2025 fell short of analysts' expectations, with projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.97 to $2.07, a decrease from $2.26 in 2024 and below the consensus of $2.09 per share. This disappointing outlook, announced in July 2025, raised concerns about growth momentum and contributed to a significant stock decline.
2. Slower Fiber Subscriber Growth and Market Competition. Although AT&T showed strength in its wireless segment, the company experienced fewer fiber customer additions than anticipated in the second quarter of 2025. This slowdown in fiber growth, with 243,000 net adds compared to 261,000 in the previous quarter, indicated intensifying market competition in the fiber broadband business, impacting investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| T Return | -21% | -8% | 5% | -3% | 44% | 11% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 3% | -26% | -1% | 44% | -0% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| T Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 53% | 40% | 53% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| T Max Drawdown | -31% | -17% | -16% | -24% | -2% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -10% | -38% | -23% | -19% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VZ, TMUS, CMCSA, CHTR, LUMN. See T Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | T | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 573 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2670 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TMUS, VZ, CMCSA, LUMN, ATNI
In The Past
AT&T's stock fell -45.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -45.7% loss requires a 84.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| AT&T Earnings Notes | |||
| AT&T Stock Capital Return Hits $85 Bil | |||
| Why RCI May Be Better Than AT&T Stock | Actionable | ||
| Time To Buy AT&T Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| What Can Trigger AT&T Stock's Slide? | |||
| 10 Communication Services Stocks Set to Outpace the Market | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can AT&T Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| AT&T vs Verizon Communications: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| [7/11/2025] Better Bet Than T Stock: Pay Less Than AT&T To Get More From Industry Peer TIGO | Actionable | ||
| T Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AT&T Stock Pays Out $85 Bil – Investors Take Note | December 13th, 2025 | ||
| RCI Tops AT&T Stock on Price & Potential | December 9th, 2025 | ||
| AT&T Stock To $18? | November 26th, 2025 | ||
| How Does AT&T Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | November 6th, 2025 | ||
| AT&T Stock Can Sink, Here Is How | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to T. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AT&T
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 137.1 |
| Rev LTM | 105,016 |
| Op Inc LTM | 20,956 |
| FCF LTM | 15,198 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,686 |
| CFO LTM | 29,028 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 25,266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 137.1 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 4.7 |
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications | 118,038 | 117,067 | 114,730 | 109,965 | 142,359 |
| Latin America | 3,932 | 3,144 | 2,747 | 5,716 | 6,963 |
| Corporate | 458 | 530 | |||
| Certain significant items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 731 | 2,207 | 1,937 | ||
| Eliminations and consolidation | -136 | -5,180 | -5,253 | ||
| Held-for-sale and other reclassifications | 453 | ||||
| Video | 15,513 | 28,610 | |||
| WarnerMedia | 30,442 | 35,259 | |||
| Acquisition-related items | -72 | ||||
| Total | 122,428 | 120,741 | 134,038 | 171,760 | 181,193 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications | 27,801 | 26,736 | 28,393 | 28,313 | 32,230 |
| Latin America | -141 | -326 | -510 | -753 | -662 |
| Certain significant items | -1,238 | -28,107 | -296 | -19,170 | -2,125 |
| Corporate | -2,961 | -2,890 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -1,644 | -2,308 | -1,978 | ||
| Held-for-sale and other reclassifications | 143 | ||||
| Reclassification of prior service credits | -2,680 | ||||
| Video | 2,491 | 2,174 | |||
| Acquisition-related items | -8,480 | -8,492 | |||
| Eliminations and consolidation | -1,563 | -1,516 | |||
| WarnerMedia | 8,192 | 10,498 | |||
| Total | 23,461 | -4,587 | 25,897 | 6,405 | 27,955 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications | 504,006 | 471,444 | 448,757 | 506,102 | 521,252 |
| Latin America | 9,314 | 8,408 | 8,874 | 15,811 | 20,606 |
| Corporate and eliminations | -106,260 | -76,999 | 93,991 | -144,189 | -133,681 |
| WarnerMedia | 148,037 | 143,492 | |||
| Total | 407,060 | 402,853 | 551,622 | 525,761 | 551,669 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -1.9% | -1.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.2% | -0.0% | 6.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| 1/27/2025 | 6.3% | 4.4% | 17.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.6% | 3.2% | 6.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 5.2% | 4.2% | 7.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 6.1% |
| 1/24/2024 | -3.0% | 2.0% | -3.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 16.7% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -12.7% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
