SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $1628.5 | Market Cap: $241.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $1628.5Market Cap: $241.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 219%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 3767% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.5 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 219%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 3767% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
| Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has gained about 150% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Financial Performance in Recent Quarters.
SanDisk's stock surge is largely attributed to its strong financial results, significantly exceeding market expectations in its last reported quarter. The company announced earnings per share of $23.41, representing a substantial 60.09% surprise over analyst estimates of $14.62. Revenue also demonstrated robust growth, reaching $5.95 billion, which surpassed the estimated $4.72 billion. This impressive performance underscores SanDisk's operational efficiency and profitability following its re-emergence as an independent entity.
2. Optimistic Future Outlook and Strong Analyst Confidence.
Investor confidence has been bolstered by SanDisk's positive future projections and strong endorsements from financial analysts. The company has provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming fiscal quarter, with anticipated earnings per share rising to $34.67 and revenue expected to reach $8.42 billion. Analysts have reacted favorably, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $1,803.29, indicating a potential 15.0% upside from its current price. Notably, some analysts, such as Bernstein, have set even higher price targets of $3,000.
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has gained about 150% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Financial Performance in Recent Quarters.
SanDisk's stock surge is largely attributed to its strong financial results, significantly exceeding market expectations in its last reported quarter. The company announced earnings per share of $23.41, representing a substantial 60.09% surprise over analyst estimates of $14.62. Revenue also demonstrated robust growth, reaching $5.95 billion, which surpassed the estimated $4.72 billion. This impressive performance underscores SanDisk's operational efficiency and profitability following its re-emergence as an independent entity.
2. Optimistic Future Outlook and Strong Analyst Confidence.
Investor confidence has been bolstered by SanDisk's positive future projections and strong endorsements from financial analysts. The company has provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming fiscal quarter, with anticipated earnings per share rising to $34.67 and revenue expected to reach $8.42 billion. Analysts have reacted favorably, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $1,803.29, indicating a potential 15.0% upside from its current price. Notably, some analysts, such as Bernstein, have set even higher price targets of $3,000.
3. Strategic Leadership in the NAND Flash Memory Market.
SanDisk's core business benefits from its strong strategic position as one of the world's five largest suppliers of NAND flash memory semiconductors. The company's vertical integration, including its joint-venture framework with Kioxia for chip production in Japan, provides a stable and cost-effective supply chain. This foundational strength allows SanDisk to effectively capitalize on the increasing global demand for high-performance flash storage solutions across various computing and mobile applications.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 151.7% change in SNDK stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 635.34 | 1599.27 | 151.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,929 | 13,184 | 47.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.5 | 18.0 | 71.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 148 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 151.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 151.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 50.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 72.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 573.7% change in SNDK stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 4106.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 237.38 | 1599.27 | 573.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,013 | 13,184 | 88.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 34.2% | 4106.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 603.9 | 52.5 | -91.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 145 | 148 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 573.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 573.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 41.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3426.5% change in SNDK stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 1614.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.35 | 1599.27 | 3426.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,279 | 13,184 | 110.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 18.0 | 1614.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 145 | 148 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3426.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 3426.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 59.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 48.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 58.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNDK Return | - | - | - | - | 388% | 570% | 3170% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -35% | 54% | 16% | 153% | 167% | 1002% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNDK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 73% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 60% | 55% | 72% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNDK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -46% | -20% | -28% | -42% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MU, STX, WDC, NTAP, HPE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is a global technology company specializing in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of innovative data storage solutions. The company focuses on flash memory technology, providing a broad portfolio of products that enable digital storage across consumer, enterprise, and mobile markets. Its primary offerings include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash solutions, and various removable memory products.
SanDisk's product lineup is extensive. For computing, it offers client SSDs for desktops, notebooks, and tablets, as well as enterprise SSD solutions under brand names like SanDisk Extreme and SanDisk SSD Plus. Its embedded products, such as iNAND, are vital for mobile phones, tablets, wearables, and automotive applications. Additionally, the company provides a wide array of removable products, including microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards for cameras and mobile devices, along with USB flash drives and wireless storage solutions.
The company serves a diverse customer base through both direct sales and an extensive network of distributors. SanDisk's products are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), system integrators, and value-added resellers. Furthermore, it has a strong retail presence, making its products available to consumers through major channels like consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, and e-commerce platforms worldwide.
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SanDisk is like the Intel of flash memory, providing the essential digital storage chips and products for devices ranging from smartphones to enterprise data centers.
SanDisk is also like Kingston Technology, but exclusively focused on flash memory products like USB drives, SD cards, and SSDs for consumers and businesses.
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- Solid State Drives (SSDs): Data storage devices for client computing applications and enterprise solutions.
- Embedded Products (iNAND): Integrated flash memory solutions designed for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, and automotive applications.
- Removable Memory Cards: Includes microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards used in mobile products, digital cameras, and camcorders.
- USB Flash Drives: Portable universal serial bus storage devices for the computing and consumer markets.
- Wireless Drive Products: Devices that allow wireless streaming of movies, photos, music, and documents to various smart devices.
- Digital Media Players (Sansa): Portable devices for playing digital media, offered under the Sansa brand.
- Memory Wafers and Components: Fundamental flash memory components and raw materials used in the manufacturing of storage products.
- Software Solutions: Complementary software designed to enhance the functionality and management of flash storage products.
- InfiniFlash System: An enterprise system solution providing petabyte-scalable, high-performance flash storage capacity.
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Major Customers of SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk primarily sells its products to other companies. Its major business customers include:- Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
- System integrators
- Value-added resellers (VARs)
- Retail channels, such as consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, e-commerce retailers, catalog and mail order companies, drug stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and kiosks.
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- Toshiba Corporation (TOSBF)
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David V. Goeckeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
David Goeckeler was appointed Chairman and CEO of SanDisk in February 2025, following the company's spin-off from Western Digital. Previously, he served as the CEO of Western Digital, where he led the company's transformation and separation into two independent public entities: Western Digital and SanDisk. Prior to his leadership at Western Digital, Goeckeler was the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Cisco's $34 billion networking and security business. He began his career at Bell Laboratories.
Luis Felipe Visoso, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Luis Felipe Visoso became SanDisk's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in February 2025, coinciding with the company's separation from Western Digital. Before joining SanDisk, he held the position of Chief Administrative Officer at Western Digital from August 2024 to February 2025. His extensive financial leadership experience includes serving as CFO of Unity Software Inc. (April 2021 – August 2024), CFO of Palo Alto Networks (July 2020 – April 2021), and various CFO roles at Amazon, including for Amazon Web Services and the Worldwide Consumer division. He also held a senior finance leadership role at Cisco from February 2016 to December 2018. Visoso spent over 23 years at Procter & Gamble in global finance leadership positions across Latin America, Europe, and the United States. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering and a minor in International Business from Tecnológico de Monterrey.
Alper Ilkbahar, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
As the Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Alper Ilkbahar is responsible for SanDisk's technological vision. He leads the company's research and development initiatives, focusing on advancing data storage technologies, including semiconductor design, memory technologies, and data management solutions.
V. Don Angspatt, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
V. Don Angspatt serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for SanDisk.
Bernard Shek, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Bernard Shek holds the titles of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary at SanDisk.
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Key Risks to SanDisk (SNDK)
- Technological Obsolescence and Rapid Innovation Cycle: SanDisk operates in the highly dynamic data storage industry, particularly flash memory, which is characterized by rapid technological advancements and short product lifecycles. The risk lies in the potential for competitors to introduce superior or more cost-effective memory technologies, architectures, or manufacturing processes that could render SanDisk's current product offerings less competitive or obsolete. This necessitates continuous and significant investment in research and development to maintain market relevance and product leadership.
- Intense Price Competition and Margin Pressure: The market for flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs) is highly competitive and often subject to significant pricing pressure. Factors such as oversupply in the market, aggressive pricing strategies by competitors, or general economic downturns can lead to price erosion for SanDisk's products. This intense competition can compress profit margins and make it challenging to maintain profitability, even amidst high sales volumes.
- Dependence on Key Customers and End Markets: SanDisk's business relies heavily on sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across various sectors, including mobile phones, tablets, and computing devices, as well as system integrators and various retail channels. Significant shifts in demand within these key end markets (e.g., a slowdown in smartphone growth or a decline in PC sales), or a major OEM choosing to switch suppliers or develop their own storage solutions, could materially impact SanDisk's revenue and business performance.
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SanDisk (SNDK) operates in several significant addressable markets for its data storage solutions. The company's main products include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash storage, and removable products such as memory cards and USB flash drives, all based on NAND flash technology.
- Solid State Drives (SSDs): The global solid state drive market was estimated at USD 19.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 55.1 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the highest market share, 42.2%, in 2023. The global PC SSDs market alone was valued at USD 18.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.33 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.9% during the forecast period. For enterprise solutions, the global enterprise flash storage market was worth USD 29.70 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 112.95 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16% during the forecast period 2025 to 2033.
- Embedded Products (e.g., iNAND): The global embedded storage solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 10.24 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 22.07 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of roughly 8.91% between 2024 and 2032. This market is driven by the increasing use of embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM) in consumer electronics, such as smartphones, wearables, IoT devices, and the automotive industry.
- NAND Flash Memory: As the foundational technology for many of SanDisk's products, the global NAND flash market size was valued at USD 65.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 111.7 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034.
- Removable Products (Flash Memory Cards): The global flash memory card market size was valued at USD 9.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 12.9 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025-2033. Specifically, the global Secure Digital (SD) memory card market was valued at USD 8.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2025 and 2032.
- USB Flash Drives: The global USB flash drive market size is projected to be USD 5.93 billion in 2025 and reach USD 8.77 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.66% from 2026 to 2031. Another estimate places the global USB Flash Drives Market size at USD 6142.8 million in 2025, expected to boost sales to USD 11369.89 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.00% from 2025 to 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for SanDisk (symbol: SNDK) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Demand for NAND Flash Memory Across Industries: As one of the top five global suppliers and a vertically integrated producer of NAND flash memory semiconductors, SanDisk is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing worldwide demand for flash storage. This demand is fueled by the continued growth in data generation from various sectors, including mobile computing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, all requiring high-capacity and high-performance flash solutions.
- Expansion in Enterprise and Cloud Solid State Drive (SSD) Markets: SanDisk's focus on repackaging its flash chips into Solid State Drives (SSDs) for cloud storage, in addition to consumer electronics and external storage, presents a significant revenue growth opportunity. The company's offerings, including enterprise SSD solutions and system solutions like the InfiniFlash System, are crucial for supporting the escalating storage needs of data centers and hyperscale cloud providers.
- Increased Adoption of Embedded Storage in Emerging Technologies: The iNAND brand, SanDisk's line of embedded products for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, wearable devices, automotive, and connected home applications, is a key driver. As these markets mature and new technologies emerge, the demand for integrated and efficient flash storage solutions within these devices is expected to grow.
- Optimized Manufacturing and Strategic Joint Ventures: SanDisk's vertical integration, which involves producing most of its flash chips at manufacturing sites in Japan through a joint venture with Kioxia, provides a stable and cost-effective supply chain. Furthermore, the recent joint venture with Fab2 in September 2025 demonstrates an ongoing strategy to enhance manufacturing capabilities and secure future production, thereby supporting long-term revenue expansion.
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Outbound Investments
- SanDisk extended its flash supply joint venture agreement with Kioxia through the end of 2034 in January 2026. This agreement was previously set to expire at the end of 2029.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending June 27, 2025, SanDisk reported capital expenditures of $1,132 million.
- The company is directing ongoing research and development investments towards enhancing product density and efficiency, specifically targeting market share expansion in response to the growing demand from AI data centers.
- SanDisk is significantly investing in its BiCS8 technology, an advanced flash memory, with plans for it to constitute the majority of bit production by the end of fiscal year 2026.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 732.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 195.5 |
| Rev LTM | 12,480 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,459 |
| FCF LTM | 3,447 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,579 |
| CFO LTM | 3,962 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,753 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 44.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 107.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 60.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,599.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 236.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,698.50 | $185.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.8% | 763.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 124.0% | 109.8% |
| Downside Capture | 602.91 | 316.13 |
| Upside Capture | 711.34 | 692.66 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 50.8% | 48.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.64 | 3.99 | 3.77 | 3.23 | 3.94 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | 0.59 | 0.56 | 1.72 | 2.19 | 2.68 | 0.43 |
| Down Beta | 4.50 | 3.16 | 3.43 | 2.29 | 3.58 | 0.08 |
| Up Capture | 1089% | 1239% | 1536% | 2656% | 17375% | 3264% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 39 | 74 | 149 | 191 |
| Down Capture | 338% | 299% | 298% | 140% | 166% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 24 | 51 | 102 | 146 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 3,799.8% | 109.6% | 3.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 59.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 48.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 20.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | -2.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 19.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 102.1% | 102.6% | 2.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 58.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 15.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 13.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 17.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 42.1% | 102.6% | 2.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 58.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 15.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 13.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 17.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 02/21/2014 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 02/21/2014 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2013 | 10/22/2013 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2013 | 07/30/2013 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2013 | 05/03/2013 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2012 | 02/19/2013 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2012 | 11/05/2012 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2012 | 08/06/2012 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2012 | 05/08/2012 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2011 | 02/23/2012 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2011 | 11/09/2011 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2011 | 08/10/2011 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2011 | 05/11/2011 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2010 | 02/23/2011 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 7.75 Bil | 8.00 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 73.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.60 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 30 | 31.5 | 33 | 142.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 13 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin | 78.9% | 79.9% | 80.9% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 79.0% | 80.0% | 81.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 523.00 Mil | 540.50 Mil | 558.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 480.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Expense | 775.00 Mil | 825.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 4.40 Bil | 4.60 Bil | 4.80 Bil | 76.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.60 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 12 | 13 | 14 | 306.2% | Higher New | Actual: 3.2 for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 2.55 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 20.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.15 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 300.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.8 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Margin | 41.0% | 42.0% | 43.0% | 13.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Expenses | 450.00 Mil | 462.50 Mil | 475.00 Mil | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 422.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 2088.00 | 600 | 1,252,800 | 65,803,320 | Form |
| 2 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 1736.00 | 600 | 1,041,600 | 55,954,752 | Form |
| 3 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 1756.58 | 2,000 | 3,513,153 | 92,531,178 | Form |
| 4 | Pokorny, Michael | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 1426.18 | 2,446 | 3,488,436 | 31,910,778 | Form |
| 5 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 1503.11 | 579 | 870,301 | 4,359,019 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 2088.00 | 600 | 1,252,800 | 65,803,320 | Form |
| 2 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 1736.00 | 600 | 1,041,600 | 55,954,752 | Form |
| 3 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 1756.58 | 2,000 | 3,513,153 | 92,531,178 | Form |
| 4 | Pokorny, Michael | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 1426.18 | 2,446 | 3,488,436 | 31,910,778 | Form |
| 5 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 1503.11 | 579 | 870,301 | 4,359,019 | Form | |
| 6 | Suzuki, Miyuki | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 627.53 | 3,500 | 2,196,360 | 6,216,953 | Form | |
| 7 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 195.14 | 1,271 | 248,027 | 678,902 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $31.3 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $25.2 Mil | 2.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $22.3 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $21.2 Mil | 1.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $5.9 Mil | 1.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $102.5 Mil | 5.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $7.4 Mil | 0.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $10.9 Mil | 0.8% | 29 | TRIM -96.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $8.9 Mil | 1.3% | 44 | TRIM -26.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
SNDK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
SanDisk is capitalizing on a historic, AI-driven demand surge for its storage, with revenue growing 251% last quarter. The company is converting this strength into long-term stability by signing contracts with over $42 billion in minimum revenue. While competition is intense, management is executing exceptionally well, massively raising financial guidance and initiating a new $6 billion buyback program.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Strategic Component Supplier / Transformed CyclicalRevenue = (Bit Shipments x Average Selling Price per Bit), heavily influenced by product mix (Datacenter vs. Edge/Consumer). Margin expansion driven by strong pricing power in an undersupplied market and a favorable mix shift to high-value Datacenter SSDs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a fundamental business model shift is underway, locking in AI-driven demand and structurally higher profitability.
- Signed 5 multi-year partnerships; 3 deals alone represent ~$42 billion in minimum contractual revenue.
- These agreements are backed by over $11 billion in financial guarantees from customers.
- Datacenter revenue, the core AI market, grew 233% sequentially in the most recent quarter.
- Non-GAAP gross margin reached 78.4% last quarter, up from 22.5% a year ago.
- Company guidance for Q4 revenue was raised by 73.9% at the midpoint.
PRIMARY RISK
Primary competitor Micron is executing a similar strategy at 4.4 times the revenue scale, with superior operating margins of 48.4%.
- Micron's trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 48.4%.
- Micron's absolute R&D spend of $4.4 billion is 4.4 times SanDisk's.
- Micron has signed 16 long-term agreements with a stated value of approximately $100 billion.
- Substantially all of SanDisk's flash memory is sourced from its joint ventures with Kioxia.
- One customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue in the latest quarter.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Year-over-Year Revenue Growth | 251% for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth rate has more than quadrupled in the last quarter, showing dramatic acceleration driven by a favorable market environment for NAND flash storage, which management attributes to AI infrastructure demand. |
| New Business Models (Long-Term Agreements) | Five multiyear partnerships signed, with three contracts signed in the latest quarter providing minimum contractual revenue of approximately $42 billion. - Accelerating | This new KPI reflects a fundamental shift in the business model to secure long-term, predictable revenue and reduce historical cyclicality. The agreements are backed by over $11 billion in financial guarantees. |
| Average Selling Price (ASP) per gigabyte growth (YoY) | 248% (Q3 FY2026) | Indicates the company's pricing power and the value of its product mix. A high growth rate signals a favorable supply/demand balance and a successful shift to higher-value products. |
| Datacenter Revenue Growth (Sequential) | 233% (Q3 FY2026) | Measures the growth rate of the company's most strategic end market, reflecting the pull from AI infrastructure demand. Strong sequential growth confirms the company is successfully capturing this key market trend. |
| New Business Models (NBMs) - Signed Agreements | 5 (As of 2026-04-30) | Tracks the progress of the company's strategic shift towards long-term, committed-volume contracts, which enhances revenue visibility and reduces cyclicality. |
Structural shift or just a historic cyclical peak?
BULL VIEW
The five new multi-year contracts, with over $11 billion in financial guarantees, represent a permanent de-risking of the business model that will smooth historical boom-bust cycles.
CORE TENSION
Can SanDisk's ~$42B in new contracts truly change its earnings profile against Micron's superior scale and $100B contract book?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The 233% sequential growth in Datacenter and massive 73.9% Q4 guidance raise confirm the cycle's strength is not yet peaking.
BEAR VIEW
The stock's 40.4% drop from its high shows the market fears this is a temporary shortage. Competitor Micron's larger contract base ($100B) suggests SanDisk is a secondary supplier.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
August 5, 2026 | Post-Earnings Volatility Watch: The company's Q4 results and Q1 guidance. Any miss versus extremely high expectations could trigger a significant correction. |
August 5, 2026 | Company Reports Q4 Earnings Watch: SanDisk will report its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2026 financial results. |
August 13, 2026 | Investor Day Execution Scrutiny Watch: Details on contract terms, pricing mechanisms, and customer commitments. Lack of transparency could undermine the de-risking narrative. |
August 13, 2026 | Company Investor Day Watch: SanDisk will hold an Investor Day event. |
9/1/2026 | Peer HPE Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/2/2026 | Peer NetApp Earnings Report Watch: Peer NetApp (NTAP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/21/2026 | Peer Results Reset Expectations Watch: Any softening in peer outlooks for data center demand or NAND pricing, which would contradict the current strong narrative. |
11/4/2026 | Company Reports Q1 Earnings Watch: SanDisk's next scheduled earnings report after the upcoming one. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-03 | Begins New Product Production Details: SanDisk and partner Kioxia announced the start of production for their 10th-generation 3D Flash memory technology at the Kitakami Plant in Japan. | -14.2% $2032.22 -> $1744.43 |
2026-06-08 | Receives Analyst Target Upgrade Details: Bank of America raised its price target to $2,100 from $1,550, citing robust NAND demand, favorable pricing, and new long-term supply agreements. | +5.6% $1559.32 -> $1646.54 |
2026-04-30 | Authorizes Share Buyback Details: The board of directors authorized a $6 billion share buyback program of outstanding common stock, effective immediately with no expiration date. | +11.5% $1064.21 -> $1187.00 |
2026-04-30 | Announces New Business Model Details: Announced five multi-year supply partnerships with over $11 billion in financial guarantees. The three contracts signed in Q3 represent minimum contractual revenue of approximately $42 billion. | +11.5% $1064.21 -> $1187.00 |
2026-04-30 | Reports Blowout Q3 Results Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $5.95 billion, up 251% year-over-year. The stock reacted up 12.0% over two days. | +11.5% $1064.21 -> $1187.00 |
2026-02-18 | WDC Sells Remaining Stake Details: Former parent Western Digital (WDC) sold 5,821,135 shares of SanDisk common stock in a secondary public offering, removing a potential stock overhang. | +5.2% $590.59 -> $621.09 |
2026-01-29 | Reports Strong Q2 Results Details: Reported Q2 FY26 revenue, up year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS. The stock reacted positively, up 9.0% over two days. | +9.2% $527.63 -> $576.25 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: SNDK trades at roughly 148% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (10.0x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MU - Micron Technology, Inc.
Scale LeaderMicron offers exposure to the same AI trend but with greater scale, superior operating margins (48.4%), and a larger book of long-term contracts valued at approximately $100 billion.
WDC - Western Digital
Value CyclicalAs SanDisk's former parent, Western Digital provides exposure to the storage market recovery but with a different product mix (including hard drives) and a much lower historical stock return.
SanDisk is transforming from a cyclical NAND manufacturer into a strategic, high-margin supplier of critical AI infrastructure, locking in long-term demand and pricing power.
Spun-off from Western Digital, SanDisk is capitalizing on the AI boom, which has made its high-performance NAND flash a critical component for data centers. The company is leveraging this demand to fundamentally reshape its business model, moving from quarterly price negotiations to multi-year supply partnerships with over $42 billion in minimum contractual revenue. This shift provides unprecedented visibility and is driving a structural step-change in margins and profitability.
Announcement of additional multi-year 'New Business Model' agreements, sustained high gross margins of 78.4%, and continued 233% growth in the Datacenter segment.
A failure to sign more NBMs, a return to price-based quarterly negotiations, a significant slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, or a major disruption at its Kioxia manufacturing JV.
Short-term fluctuations in PC or smartphone unit sales, which are becoming less central to the overall thesis as the Datacenter segment's importance grows.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution and expansion of its New Business Models (NBMs), which fundamentally de-risks the business from historical industry cyclicality and provides a clear path to more predictable, high-margin revenue.
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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