Intel (INTC)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $103.73 | Market Cap: $527.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $103.73Market Cap: $527.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 342% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 140% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 342% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 140% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Intel (INTC) stock has gained about 135% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Robust Guidance: Intel reported stronger-than-expected results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations with revenue of $13.6 billion, significantly above the modeled $12.36 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.29, far surpassing the $0.01 estimate. This positive momentum was largely driven by strong demand in the data center and foundry segments. Following these results, Intel provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q2 2026, projecting revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $13.07 billion, and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.20. This consistent execution and improved financial forecast significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a stock surge of approximately 24% after the Q1 earnings report.
2. Significant Progress and Strategic Partnerships in Foundry Services and Advanced Process Technology (18A): Intel demonstrated substantial advancement in its Intel Foundry business and advanced manufacturing nodes. Apple and Microsoft officially joined Intel Foundry's 18A process as early design partners, a key validation of Intel's foundry strategy. Furthermore, Intel initiated "risk production" of its next-generation 18A-P node in June 2026, and yields on the current 18A node reportedly improved to about 85% in fiscal Q2 2026, up from 65% in the preceding quarter. This progress in manufacturing capabilities and the securing of major foundry customers underscore Intel's commitment to regaining technology leadership and diversifying its revenue streams.
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Intel (INTC) stock has gained about 135% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Robust Guidance: Intel reported stronger-than-expected results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations with revenue of $13.6 billion, significantly above the modeled $12.36 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.29, far surpassing the $0.01 estimate. This positive momentum was largely driven by strong demand in the data center and foundry segments. Following these results, Intel provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q2 2026, projecting revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $13.07 billion, and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.20. This consistent execution and improved financial forecast significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a stock surge of approximately 24% after the Q1 earnings report.
2. Significant Progress and Strategic Partnerships in Foundry Services and Advanced Process Technology (18A): Intel demonstrated substantial advancement in its Intel Foundry business and advanced manufacturing nodes. Apple and Microsoft officially joined Intel Foundry's 18A process as early design partners, a key validation of Intel's foundry strategy. Furthermore, Intel initiated "risk production" of its next-generation 18A-P node in June 2026, and yields on the current 18A node reportedly improved to about 85% in fiscal Q2 2026, up from 65% in the preceding quarter. This progress in manufacturing capabilities and the securing of major foundry customers underscore Intel's commitment to regaining technology leadership and diversifying its revenue streams.
3. Substantial Strategic Investments and Growth in AI-Driven Segments: Intel attracted significant strategic investments and demonstrated robust growth in its Data Center and AI (DCAI) unit, along with key AI innovations. Nvidia made a notable investment of approximately $5 billion in Intel shares, signaling a multi-generation custom-chip partnership within Nvidia's AI ecosystem. Additionally, SoftBank invested $2 billion, and the U.S. government acquired a 10% stake as part of CHIPS Act commitments to bolster domestic chip manufacturing. The DCAI unit experienced strong growth, with revenue increasing 22% year-over-year to $5.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, achieving operating margins of 30.5%. Intel also unveiled new AI innovations at Computex 2026, including new rackscale AI infrastructure and strategic collaborations for AI-driven solutions. These developments highlight increasing confidence in Intel's long-term potential in the burgeoning AI market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 132.5% change in INTC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.13 | 102.62 | 132.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,853 | 53,763 | 1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 9.7 | 139.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,848 | 5,083 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 132.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 132.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 68.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 178.1% change in INTC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 211.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.90 | 102.62 | 178.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,439 | 53,763 | 0.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.1 | 9.7 | 211.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,514 | 5,083 | -11.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 178.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 178.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 47.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 61.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 358.1% change in INTC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 429.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.40 | 102.62 | 358.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,044 | 53,763 | 1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 9.7 | 429.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,343 | 5,083 | -14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 358.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 358.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 55.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 213.1% change in INTC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 302.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.77 | 102.62 | 213.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,416 | 53,763 | -4.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 9.7 | 302.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,154 | 5,083 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 213.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 213.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 46.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 53.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 186% | 134% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 84% | 951% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -29% | -54% | -17% | -62% | -34% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -20% | -35% | -37% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intel (INTC)
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a global technology company specializing in the design, manufacture, and sale of a wide array of computer products and technologies. At its core, Intel is renowned for providing essential platform products such as central processing units (CPUs) and chipsets, which are fundamental components powering personal computers, servers, and other computing devices worldwide. Beyond these core processors, the company also offers a variety of non-platform products including graphics cards, memory, storage solutions, accelerators, and connectivity products.
Intel's technological reach extends into diverse applications and serves a broad range of customers and markets. The company develops high-performance computing solutions for targeted industries like retail, industrial, and healthcare, often for embedded systems. Through its Mobileye segment, Intel is a key player in the assisted and autonomous driving sector, providing advanced compute platforms and computer vision systems. Its primary customers include Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), cloud service providers, large enterprises, government entities, and communications service providers, integrating Intel's innovations into their products and infrastructure.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
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- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
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Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
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Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
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The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
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Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Intel Earnings Notes | 07/22/2026 | |
| Does Intel Stock Have More Upside? | 07/18/2026 | |
| What Intel Stock Was Signaling About The AI Data Center's Real Engine | 07/17/2026 | |
| What Owning Intel Stock Means In A Market Crash | 07/09/2026 | |
| What An INTC Pullback Costs Your ETFs | 06/30/2026 | |
| The Margin Squeeze Threatening Intel Stock | 06/27/2026 | |
| The Real Test For Intel Stock Isn't Growth | 06/16/2026 | |
| Intel Stock and the Hyperscaler's Tell | 06/11/2026 | |
| Intel Stock Shares Rally 14% In A Week, Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying The Stock | 05/27/2026 | |
| 5-Day Sell-Off Sends Intel Stock Down 16% | 05/19/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| How Will Intel Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 07/22/2026 | |
| Intel Stock’s AI-Fueled Rally Meets Its Turnaround Reality | 07/21/2026 | |
| How Much Track Is Left For INTC Stock? | 07/20/2026 | |
| What Intel Stock Was Signaling About The AI Data Center’s Real Engine | 07/17/2026 | |
| What Intel Stock Was Saying Before Its 5x Climb | 07/15/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 304.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 990.6 |
| Rev LTM | 55,941 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,764 |
| FCF LTM | 11,392 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,160 |
| CFO LTM | 22,469 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,499 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 42.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 71.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 70.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 990.6 |
| P/S | 19.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 47.5 |
| P/EBIT | 32.6 |
| P/E | 38.5 |
| P/CFO | 46.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 43.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 55.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 150.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 369.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 36.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 55.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 126.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 288.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 32,228 | 33,346 | 29,258 | 31,773 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,826 | 17,317 | 18,910 | 469 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,919 | 16,125 | 12,635 | 19,445 |
| All Other | 3,563 | 3,601 | 5,608 | 1,089 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,683 | -17,288 | -17,957 | |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 5,774 | 8,409 | ||
| Mobileye | 1,869 | |||
| Total | 52,853 | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 9,317 | 11,594 | 9,513 | 5,569 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 3,422 | 1,414 | 1,620 | 1,300 |
| Intersegment eliminations | 619 | -161 | -203 | |
| All Other | 264 | -57 | 1,079 | -5,977 |
| Corporate unallocated | -5,518 | -11,177 | -5,165 | |
| Intel Foundry | -10,318 | -13,291 | -6,955 | -281 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 204 | 1,033 | ||
| Mobileye | 690 | |||
| Total | -2,214 | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $102.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 521.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $114.80 | $64.76 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.6% | 58.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 101.3% | 77.9% |
| Downside Capture | 399.62 | 197.32 |
| Upside Capture | 525.70 | 332.76 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.0% | 43.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.30 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 2.89 | 2.50 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 2.26 | 3.48 | 2.14 | 3.32 | 2.97 | 1.82 |
| Down Beta | 3.73 | 2.55 | 3.47 | 2.88 | 2.60 | 1.74 |
| Up Capture | 584% | 700% | 992% | 886% | 993% | 1750% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 36 | 67 | 130 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 209% | 290% | 198% | 123% | 120% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 26 | 57 | 120 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 343.8% | 77.7% | 2.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 43.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 16.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -2.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 1.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 22.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 14.6% | 53.6% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 54.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 14.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 25.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 20.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 13.8% | 44.9% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 60.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 15.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -10.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -11.9% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.3% | 15.9% | 36.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | 6.6% | 0.9% | -3.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 4.0% | 5.1% | -2.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -6.4% | 0.3% | -16.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 10.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | -8.6% | -9.3% | -15.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -7.0% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| 10/21/2021 | -11.7% | -14.1% | -11.0% |
| 7/22/2021 | -5.3% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.3% | -6.9% | -9.8% |
| 1/21/2021 | -9.3% | -10.2% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2020 | -10.6% | -18.2% | -15.2% |
| 7/23/2020 | -16.2% | -20.5% | -17.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -10.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/26/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 13.80 Bil | 14.30 Bil | 14.80 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | 37.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 4.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | 0.08 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | 22.70 Bil | 24.7% | Raised | Guidance: 18.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | 16.50 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 11.70 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.70 Bil | -8.3% | Lower New | Actual: 13.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.21 | 50.0% | Lower New | Actual: -0.14 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 18.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 16.00 Bil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 12.80 Bil | 13.30 Bil | 13.80 Bil | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 13.10 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Gross Margin | 34.5% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 EPS | -0.14 | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Expenses | 19.00 Bil | 18.8% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 4 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 4 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $5.1 Mil | 1.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $22.9 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd | $18.4 Mil | 0.9% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
INTC Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Intel's turnaround is showing tangible signs of progress, with demand outpacing supply and AI-related revenue growing 40% year-over-year. While cash flow is currently negative due to heavy investment, accelerating Data Center growth and strong pricing power suggest a potential inflection in profitability as new manufacturing processes ramp. The primary risk remains execution on this complex manufacturing roadmap.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical Manufacturing & TurnaroundVolume of chips sold x Average Selling Price (ASP) Successful execution of the process technology roadmap (e.g., Intel 18A, 14A) leading to higher-performance, higher-margin products and improved factory utilization and yields.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests an inflection is underway, as overwhelming demand allows for strong pricing and improved product mix.
- Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment revenue accelerated to 22% year-over-year growth.
- Server average selling prices increased 27% in Q1 2026 versus the prior year.
- Management states demand is running ahead of supply for all businesses.
- Intel 18A process yields are running ahead of internal projections.
- The company has secured $1.7 billion in customer deposits for long-term arrangements.
PRIMARY RISK
The capital-intensive foundry strategy could fail if manufacturing roadmaps slip or external customers do not commit, stranding billions in investment and destroying shareholder value.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at $-3.1 billion.
- Capital expenditure is a very high 24.4% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
- The Intel Foundry segment had a -10,318 operating loss.
- Interest coverage from operating profit is below 1x at 0.7 times.
- The basic share count has increased 22.4% over the last three years.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment Revenue Growth | 22% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | The Data Center and AI segment is showing strong momentum, which management attributes to accelerating investments in CPUs for AI infrastructure. The CEO highlighted "strong and sustained momentum" for Xeon server demand, noting that demand is outpacing the company's growing supply. |
| Client Computing Group (CCG) Segment Revenue Growth | grew year-over-year in Q1 2025, based on a $98 million increase on a base of $7,629 million. - Stagnant | The Client Computing Group's performance is stagnant, with minimal year-over-year growth and a sequential decline. However, management noted that this was "better than our expectations" and that "demand outstripped supply," suggesting the results were constrained by production capacity rather than weak end-market demand. |
| Process Node Yields | 18A yields are now running ahead of the internal projections (Q1 2026 (as of 4/23/2026 earnings call)) | Market rewards Securing a significant external customer for the Intel 14A node.. This is a critical indicator of the company's manufacturing execution and its ability to produce its most advanced chips cost-effectively. Improving yields are essential for the turnaround of the foundry business and the competitiveness of its products. |
| Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | -6 percentage points (Q2 2026 (ended 6/30/2026)) | Inventory grew 1.2% YoY while revenue grew 7.2%, a positive divergence indicating that the company is selling products faster than it is building inventory, which is a healthy sign of strong demand and good inventory management. |
Demand Inflection vs. Financial Drain
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe accelerating Data Center growth (22% YoY) and strong pricing prove the turnaround is working, making the current negative cash flow a temporary investment phase before a major profit recovery.
CORE TENSION
Can strong demand signals, like 27% server ASP growth, generate cash flow fast enough to offset the foundry's -10,318 operating loss before the balance sheet breaks?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's 26% positive reaction to the last earnings report shows investors are prioritizing leading indicators of demand over lagging, negative profitability metrics.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a company with negative free cash flow of $-3.1 billion and 2% operating margins that is losing share to more profitable rivals, arguing the turnaround is too costly and execution risk is too high.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in 2026 | Operating Expense Reduction Watch: Company expects total R&D and MG&A expenses to decrease. |
9/2/2026 | Peer Broadcom Earnings Report Watch: Peer Broadcom (AVGO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/21/2026 | Peer Micron Earnings Report Watch: Peer Micron Technology (MU) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/21/2026 | Persistent Supply Constraints Watch: Updates on factory output, wafer availability, and whether revenue guidance continues to be limited by supply. |
10/21/2026 | PC Market Weakness Watch: Commentary on Client Computing Group (CCG) segment performance and any revision to the full-year PC TAM outlook. |
10/21/2026 | Margin Headwinds From Costs Watch: Gross margin guidance and commentary on input costs (memory, substrates) and operating expense trajectory. |
this year | Debt Maturities Due Watch: Company expects to retire all $2.5 billion of maturities as they come due. |
No set date | Geopolitical Supply Disruption Watch: News related to the conflict in Iran and Israel, specifically any reports of impacts to industrial facilities. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-15 | High NA EUV Milestone Details: Intel Foundry entered high-volume manufacturing for a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors (Panther Lake) using ASML's EXE High NA EUV technology. | -10.0% $107.76 -> $96.98 |
2026-06-11 | Bank of America Double Upgrade Details: Bank of America issued a double upgrade to Buy from Underperform, raising its price objective to $135 from $96, citing higher confidence in CPU and foundry opportunities. | +16.4% $107.04 -> $124.57 |
2026-06-08 | Cadence 14A Collaboration Details: Announced an expanded collaboration with Cadence to advance Design Technology Co-Optimization (DTCO) for next-generation process technologies, beginning with Intel 14A. | +8.8% $99.17 -> $107.92 |
2026-04-23 | Operating Expense Guidance Raised Details: Alongside strong Q1 results, the company raised its guidance for full-year 2026 GAAP operating expenses by 24.7% and non-GAAP operating expenses by 3.1%. | +26.5% $65.27 -> $82.54 |
2026-04-23 | Strong Q1 Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q1 results that "blew past Wall Street expectations," citing "unprecedented demand" for AI chips. The two-day stock reaction was +26.0%. | +26.5% $65.27 -> $82.54 |
2026-02-26 | SambaNova AI Collaboration Announced Details: The company announced a planned collaboration with SambaNova to deliver high-performance, cost-efficient AI inference solutions. | -2.7% $46.88 -> $45.61 |
2026-01-22 | Soft Guidance Sparks Sell-Off Details: The company provided soft Q1 guidance due to supply constraints, leading to a stock price plunge. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -17.0%. | -16.9% $54.25 -> $45.07 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: INTC trades at roughly 88% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (6.0x the market), around the 97th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
Fabless CPU/GPU CompetitorAMD offers exposure to the same PC and data center markets via a capital-light model, with higher trailing revenue growth (35%) and superior gross margins (50.3%).
NVDA - NVIDIA
AI Platform LeaderNVIDIA is the dominant player in AI accelerators with a powerful software moat, delivering vastly superior revenue growth (70.7%) and operating margins (64%).
Intel is a high-stakes manufacturing turnaround story, betting billions on reclaiming process technology leadership to power its own products and build a new foundry business amid soaring AI-driven demand.
After a period of losing its manufacturing edge, Intel is in a deeply capital-intensive phase to catch up to competitors. The company is currently supply-constrained, with demand for its server and PC chips outpacing production. The investment thesis hinges on the successful execution of its ambitious technology roadmap (Intel 18A, 14A), which is necessary to both make its own products competitive and convince external customers to use its foundry services.
An announcement of a significant external customer design win for the upcoming Intel 14A process node.
Reports of delays or significant yield problems with the Intel 18A or 14A process nodes, or the loss of a major internal product to an external foundry.
Short-term fluctuations in the PC market that are not related to Intel's competitive positioning or AI PC adoption.
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained acceleration in revenue and margin expansion driven by the successful high-volume ramp of products on the Intel 18A process and improved factory output.
Client Computing Group (CCG)
$32.2B TTM (61% of Total) · 29% MarginWhat It Is
Sells platforms and processors that power personal computers (PCs) and edge devices for consumer and commercial markets.
Who Pays & How
PC manufacturers (OEMs) pay for Intel's processors, which are central components in their notebook and desktop products. They choose Intel for its x86 architecture, performance, and broad ecosystem compatibility.
Competition
Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI)
$16.9B TTM (32% of Total) · 20% MarginWhat It Is
Sells workload-optimized solutions for data centers, including CPUs (Xeon), AI accelerators, and networking components to cloud, enterprise, and telecommunication customers.
Who Pays & How
Cloud service providers and large enterprises pay for Intel's server products to build and operate their data center infrastructure. They choose Intel for its x86 architecture's performance and scalability for various workloads, including AI.
Competition
Intel Foundry
$17.8B TTM (34% of Total) · -58% MarginWhat It Is
Provides semiconductor manufacturing, assembly, test, and advanced packaging services. Currently, substantially all of its business supports internal manufacturing for Intel's product segments, but it aims to build a significant external foundry business.
Who Pays & How
Intel's own product divisions (CCG, DCAI) are the primary customers, paying for wafer fabrication. The goal is to have external chip design companies pay for these manufacturing services to diversify their supply chain and access leading-edge US-based manufacturing.
Competition
All Other
$3.6B TTM (7% of Total) · 7% MarginWhat It Is
Includes results from non-reportable segments like the Mobileye business (driving assistance and self-driving solutions), IMS (multi-beam mask writing tools), and historical results from divested businesses like Altera.
Who Pays & How
Customers vary by business unit, including automotive manufacturers for Mobileye's technology.
Competition
Intel — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductors Resources |
| EE Times |
| Semiconductor Engineering |
| Semiconductor Digest |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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