Alphabet (GOOG)
Market Price (9/21/2026): $352.36 | Market Cap: $4.3 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet (GOOG)
Market Price (9/21/2026): $352.36Market Cap: $4.3 TrilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. | Key risksGOOG key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory pressure threatening structural changes to its core search and app businesses, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Key risksGOOG key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory pressure threatening structural changes to its core search and app businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alphabet (GOOG) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure Guidance and Negative Free Cash Flow. Despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), including revenues of $119.8 billion, which beat consensus estimates of approximately $116.5 billion, and an EPS of $9.11, exceeding estimates of $2.87, Alphabet's stock declined due to a substantial increase in its full-year capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance. The company's CapEx for fiscal Q2 2026 doubled to $44.9 billion, leading to a negative free cash flow of $5.855 billion. Alphabet further raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion and indicated expectations for further significant investment increases in fiscal year 2027, prompting investor concerns about the return on these massive AI-related investments and the potential impact on future profitability.
2. Increased Competition and Google Cloud Supply Constraints. Alphabet faced heightened competition across its various operational segments, particularly within the cloud computing sector, from key rivals like Microsoft and Amazon. While Google Cloud demonstrated robust growth, with revenue surging 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, it remained supply-constrained. Google Cloud held approximately 15% of the market share, lagging behind Amazon's 28% and Microsoft's 20%, raising investor questions regarding its capacity to expand market share effectively despite strong growth.
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Alphabet (GOOG) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure Guidance and Negative Free Cash Flow. Despite reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), including revenues of $119.8 billion, which beat consensus estimates of approximately $116.5 billion, and an EPS of $9.11, exceeding estimates of $2.87, Alphabet's stock declined due to a substantial increase in its full-year capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance. The company's CapEx for fiscal Q2 2026 doubled to $44.9 billion, leading to a negative free cash flow of $5.855 billion. Alphabet further raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion and indicated expectations for further significant investment increases in fiscal year 2027, prompting investor concerns about the return on these massive AI-related investments and the potential impact on future profitability.
2. Increased Competition and Google Cloud Supply Constraints. Alphabet faced heightened competition across its various operational segments, particularly within the cloud computing sector, from key rivals like Microsoft and Amazon. While Google Cloud demonstrated robust growth, with revenue surging 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, it remained supply-constrained. Google Cloud held approximately 15% of the market share, lagging behind Amazon's 28% and Microsoft's 20%, raising investor questions regarding its capacity to expand market share effectively despite strong growth.
3. Insider Selling Activity. Following the announcement of fiscal Q2 2026 results, Alphabet insiders engaged in 26 selling transactions totaling approximately $188.6 million over the past 90 days, covering the period since mid-June 2026. These divestments included significant sales by The Lawrence Page Trust and various executives, which the market may interpret as a signal of reduced confidence and contributed to downward pressure on the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.4% change in GOOG stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 375.96 | 344.41 | -8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 422,499 | 445,867 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 37.9% | 54.8% | 44.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.4 | 17.1 | -39.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12,099 | 12,151 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOG | -8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 48.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | -4.2% | 72.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.8% change in GOOG stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 310.82 | 344.41 | 10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 402,837 | 445,867 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.8% | 54.8% | 66.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.4 | 17.1 | -39.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12,074 | 12,151 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 57.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.8% | 70.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.9% change in GOOG stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 76.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 212.78 | 344.41 | 61.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 371,399 | 445,867 | 20.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.1% | 54.8% | 76.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.3 | 17.1 | -23.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12,122 | 12,151 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 61.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 53.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 0.5% | 63.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 153.1% change in GOOG stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 160.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 136.06 | 344.41 | 153.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 289,531 | 445,867 | 54.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 54.8% | 160.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.3 | 17.1 | -39.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12,668 | 12,151 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 153.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 153.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 58.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 68.8% | 69.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GOOG Return | |||||||
| Peers Return | 25% | -44% | 89% | 47% | 10% | 4% | 123% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GOOG Win Rate | |||||||
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 30% | 75% | 68% | 47% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GOOG Max Drawdown | |||||||
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -53% | -18% | -16% | -29% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, META, NFLX. See GOOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GOOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 449 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Alphabet's stock fell -21.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | GOOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 449 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alphabet's stock fell -21.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alphabet (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is a global technology conglomerate renowned for its extensive suite of internet products and services. At its core, Alphabet aims to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. The company generates substantial revenue primarily through its powerful advertising platforms, integrated across its dominant Google Search engine and the widely popular YouTube video platform, serving a massive global user base and advertisers.
The company's operations are divided into three main segments. The Google Services segment provides a vast ecosystem of consumer-facing products, including the Android mobile operating system, Chrome browser, Gmail, Google Maps, and hardware devices like Pixel phones, Nest smart home products, and Fitbit wearables. This segment also includes the Google Play store for apps and digital content. Complementing these consumer offerings, the Google Cloud segment delivers essential cloud computing infrastructure, platforms, and enterprise collaboration tools such as Google Workspace (comprising Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet) to businesses worldwide.
Alphabet also maintains an "Other Bets" segment, which invests in innovative, longer-term ventures, including health technology and advanced internet services, reflecting the company's commitment to exploring future growth areas. In essence, Alphabet serves an immense global market, offering indispensable digital tools and services to billions of individual consumers while also providing critical cloud solutions to enterprise customers across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
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Here are two brief analogies for Alphabet (GOOG):
- Alphabet is like Microsoft, but for the internet's core services, search, and advertising platforms.
- Alphabet is like Amazon, but for digital information and advertising, also with a massive cloud computing business.
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- Google Search: Provides information retrieval through its dominant internet search engine.
- Advertising Services: Offers various advertising solutions across its numerous platforms, including Search and YouTube.
- Android: A widely used mobile operating system powering a vast array of smartphones and other devices.
- YouTube: A leading global platform for video sharing, viewing, and content creation, including non-advertising subscription services.
- Chrome: A popular web browser offering fast, secure, and customizable internet access.
- Hardware Products: Manufactures and sells consumer electronics such as Pixel phones, Fitbit wearables, and Google Nest smart home products.
- Google Play: A digital distribution platform for Android apps, games, movies, music, and e-books.
- Google Maps: A comprehensive mapping, navigation, and location-based service.
- Gmail: A free email service offering substantial storage and integrated communication tools.
- Google Drive: A cloud storage and file synchronization service.
- Google Photos: A service for storing, organizing, and sharing photos and videos.
- Google Cloud Services: Provides enterprise-grade infrastructure, platform, and other cloud computing services.
- Google Workspace (Enterprise Collaboration Tools): Offers a suite of cloud-based productivity and collaboration tools for businesses, including Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet.
- Health Technology: Develops and sells products and services in the health technology sector.
- Internet Services (Other Bets): Encompasses various other internet-related services from its experimental ventures.
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Alphabet (GOOG) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, particularly through its advertising platforms and Google Cloud offerings. While many of its services are used by individuals, the primary revenue streams are generated from businesses. The company serves millions of advertisers globally, making it difficult to list individual "major" advertising customers. However, specific large enterprise clients for its Google Cloud services are often publicized and represent major customers.
Examples of public companies that are major customers for Alphabet's Google Cloud services include:
- Target Corporation (TGT)
- The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Unilever PLC (UL)
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- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (034220.KS)
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Sundar Pichai, Chief Executive Officer, Alphabet and Google
Sundar Pichai has served as CEO of Google since 2015 and as CEO of Alphabet Inc. since 2019. He joined Google in 2004, where he played a key role in the development of products such as Google Toolbar and Google Chrome. Prior to his CEO roles, he held positions including Senior Vice President of Products at Google and Senior Vice President of Google's Android, Chrome, and Apps. Pichai began his career as a materials engineer, and before joining Google, he worked as an engineer and product manager at Applied Materials and as a management consultant with McKinsey & Company. He earned a bachelor's degree in metallurgy from India Institute of Technology Kharagpur, a master's in engineering from Stanford University, and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Anat Ashkenazi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Alphabet and Google
Anat Ashkenazi was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google in July 2024. Before joining Alphabet, she had a distinguished career of over 23 years at Eli Lilly and Company, where she ultimately served as CFO. During her three-year tenure as CFO at Eli Lilly, the company's market capitalization reportedly tripled.
Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer, Alphabet and Google
Ruth Porat is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet and Google. She previously served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google from May 2015 until July 2024. Before her time at Google, Porat was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Morgan Stanley. She began her career as a banker at Morgan Stanley in 1987, became vice chairman of investment banking in 2003, and global head of the Financial Institutions Group, with a three-year stint at Smith Barney from 1993 to 1996.
Philipp Schindler, Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer, Google
Philipp Schindler has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer of Google since August 2015, overseeing Google's and YouTube's sales, support, partnership, business development teams, and country operations. He joined Google in 2005, having previously held roles such as Vice President of Global Sales and Operations, and President for Northern and Central Europe. Prior to Google, Schindler was a Senior Vice President at AOL Germany, where he managed marketing and sales activities and served on their management board for six years. He also held positions at CompuServe in Germany and at the global AOL headquarters in the US, and started his career in new media activities within Bertelsmann AG's junior talent program.
Thomas Kurian, Chief Executive Officer, Google Cloud
Thomas Kurian is the Chief Executive Officer of Google Cloud, a role he has held since 2019. He joined Google Cloud in November 2018 and is recognized for transforming the division into one of Alphabet's significant growth engines. Before coming to Google, Kurian spent over two decades at Oracle, where he held various leadership positions, including President of product development. He began his career as a consultant with McKinsey & Company. Kurian earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Princeton University and an MBA from Stanford University.
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Key Risks to Alphabet (GOOG)
-
Structural Shift in Information Search Driven by AI and Rising Competition
Alphabet's core business model, heavily reliant on search and advertising, faces a fundamental challenge from the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and intelligent agents. This shift is transforming how users retrieve information, potentially leading to a decade-long erosion of traditional search query volume, ad impressions, and the value of commercial intent that powers Google's margins. Competitors such as OpenAI and Perplexity are developing AI-first interfaces that directly challenge Google's search dominance, posing a significant threat to Alphabet's long-term growth. The company must balance enhancing user experience with AI while protecting its substantial advertising revenue streams.
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Intensifying Regulatory Pressure and Antitrust Challenges
Alphabet is under increasing global regulatory scrutiny due to its dominant positions in search, Android, and advertising. This pressure has resulted in numerous antitrust lawsuits and investigations, with regulators pushing for changes in business practices, including how Alphabet handles location data, targeted advertising, and its ad-tech operations. Such regulatory outcomes can unfold gradually but permanently reshape the competitive landscape, potentially leading to significant fines, restrictions on operations, or even the forced divestiture of assets.
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High Capital Expenditures and Operational Complexity in AI and Cloud Expansion
Alphabet is making massive investments in AI infrastructure, data centers, and custom chips to maintain its technological leadership and expand its Google Cloud segment. While these investments are crucial for growth, they are associated with significant capital expenditures (CapEx) that can impact free cash flow and put pressure on operational margins. The rapid pace of innovation in AI also introduces operational complexities and the need for sustainable, cost-efficient scaling, creating execution and capital discipline risks for the company.
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Generative AI and AI-powered Search
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Alphabet Inc. (symbol: GOOG) participates in several large addressable markets through its Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments.
Google Services
- Digital Advertising (including Search and YouTube): The global digital advertising market size is projected to be approximately USD 662.3 billion in 2026. Within this, global search advertising is estimated at USD 265 billion in 2026, and the global digital video advertising market is projected to reach USD 337.34 billion in 2026.
- Android (Smartphone Operating System): The addressable market for Android is the global smartphone market, which is projected to expand from USD 642.64 billion in 2026.
- Hardware (Pixel phones): The addressable market for Pixel phones is also the global smartphone market, valued at USD 642.64 billion in 2026.
- Hardware (Fitbit wearable devices): The global wearable technology market size is projected to grow from USD 103.1 billion in 2026.
- Hardware (Google Nest home products): The global smart home market size is expected to reach USD 138.9 billion in 2026.
Google Cloud
- Cloud Computing (including infrastructure, platform, and Google Workspace): The global cloud computing market is estimated to be around USD 1 trillion in 2026.
Other Bets
- Health Technology: The global healthcare technology market size is expected to grow to USD 707.23 billion in 2026.
- Internet Services: The global market for internet services is estimated at approximately USD 1,654.5 billion in 2026.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Alphabet (GOOG) over the Next 2-3 Years
- Accelerated Growth in Google Cloud, Driven by AI Infrastructure and Solutions: Google Cloud is expected to be a primary driver of revenue growth, with significant acceleration in its revenue and a substantial backlog indicating strong future demand. This growth is largely fueled by increasing enterprise adoption of AI infrastructure and solutions, including platforms like Vertex AI and the integration of Gemini capabilities.
- AI Monetization Across Google Services (Search and YouTube): Alphabet's continued investment in artificial intelligence is expected to enhance its core advertising businesses. AI Overviews and AI Mode in Google Search are anticipated to make the search experience more useful for complex queries, leading to increased monetization. Similarly, AI integration within YouTube is projected to optimize advertising effectiveness and drive revenue growth for the video platform.
- Expansion and Monetization of AI-Native Applications and Ecosystem Integration: The embedding of Gemini capabilities into various Google products, such as Workspace, Android, and Pixel devices, along with a "full-stack" strategy to support AI app developers, is poised to create new revenue streams. The growth of AI-native applications and the monetization of AI interoperability within Google's ecosystem are significant opportunities.
- Growth in YouTube Advertising and Subscriptions: YouTube continues to be a substantial contributor to Alphabet's revenue, with ongoing growth in advertising demand for digital video. Beyond advertising, the expansion of YouTube Premium, YouTube TV, and channel memberships is providing a growing source of recurring subscription revenue.
- Increased Sales of Hardware Devices: Revenue growth is also anticipated from Alphabet's hardware segment, which includes Pixel phones, Google Nest home products, and Fitbit wearable devices. The integration of AI capabilities into these devices is expected to drive consumer adoption and sales.
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Share Repurchases
- Alphabet repurchased $61.5 billion in 2023, $62.222 billion in 2024, and $45.71 billion in 2025.
- As of June 30, 2026, Alphabet had $69.5 billion remaining under the board's authorization for Class A and Class C share repurchases.
- In April 2024, Alphabet's Board of Directors authorized the company to repurchase up to an additional $70.0 billion of Class A and Class C shares.
Share Issuance
- Alphabet's stock-based compensation (SBC) for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was $24.95 billion.
- Total SBC expense was $15.7 billion in 2021, $19.5 billion in 2022, and $22.1 billion in 2023.
- Alphabet is looking to raise $80 billion in equity offerings, including a $10 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway in June 2026, to fund its AI infrastructure expansion.
Inbound Investments
- Berkshire Hathaway invested $10 billion in Alphabet's equity offerings in June 2026 as part of Alphabet's strategy to fund AI infrastructure.
- In September 2026, Blackstone contributed approximately $5 billion in equity to Crux AI, a cloud venture backed by Google and supported by $22 billion in bank financing, focused on building AI cloud computing infrastructure.
Outbound Investments
- Alphabet acquired Wiz, a cloud security company, for $32 billion in March 2025.
- Alphabet acquired Intersect, a data center and clean energy developer, for $4.75 billion in December 2025.
- Alphabet acquired Mandiant, a cybersecurity firm, for $5.4 billion in 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Alphabet's capital expenditures increased from $24.64 billion in 2021 to $91.447 billion in 2025.
- Alphabet increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion, from an earlier forecast of $180 billion to $190 billion, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure and cloud capacity.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on expanding data center capacity, advanced servers, and networking infrastructure to support AI workloads.
Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -15.1% | 26.4% | 41.6% | ECHO 262% · TMUS 42% · SHEN -60% |
| Publishing | 5 | 21.6% | 20.2% | 18.4% | NYT 49% · NWSA 40% · SCHL 18% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -16.1% | 3.2% | -25.7% | IQST 1481% · GSAT 229% · AD 154% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 24 | -1.1% | 72.3% | -34.3% | IMAX 221% · MSGS 128% · BATRA 116% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 29.6% | 15.9% | -42.7% | IRDM 14% · UNIT -41% · LUMN -45% |
| Advertising | 19 | -18.5% | -10.1% | -61.8% | APP 316% · EVC 50% · OMC 29% |
| Broadcasting | 15 | -13.8% | -21.2% | -68.8% | FOXA 85% · NXST 26% · WBD 11% |
| Interactive Media & Services ← | 31 | -35.2% | -33.8% | -70.4% | GOOGL 154% · GOOG 149% · META 88% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -51.8% | -55.1% | -87.6% | TTWO 41% · RBLX -39% · PINS -65% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 336.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,732.2 |
| Rev LTM | 331,839 |
| Op Inc LTM | 93,712 |
| FCF LTM | 40,976 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 46,958 |
| CFO LTM | 146,724 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 122,777 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 37.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,732.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 24.9 |
| P/CFO | 20.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Services | 342,721 | 304,930 | 272,543 | 253,528 | 237,529 |
| Google Cloud | 58,705 | 43,229 | 33,088 | 26,280 | 19,206 |
| Other Bets | 1,537 | 1,648 | 1,527 | 1,068 | 753 |
| Hedging gains (losses) | -127 | 211 | 236 | 1,960 | 149 |
| Total | 402,836 | 350,018 | 307,394 | 282,836 | 257,637 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Services | 139,404 | 121,263 | 95,858 | 82,699 | 88,132 |
| Google Cloud | 13,910 | 6,112 | 1,716 | -1,922 | -2,282 |
| Other Bets | -7,515 | -4,444 | -4,095 | -4,636 | -4,051 |
| Alphabet-level activities | -16,760 | -10,541 | -9,186 | -1,299 | -3,085 |
| Total | 129,039 | 112,390 | 84,293 | 74,842 | 78,714 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $344.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4,184.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/19/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $343.30 | $335.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.3% | 2.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.3% | 31.1% |
| Downside Capture | 208.63 | 130.47 |
| Upside Capture | 153.43 | 143.91 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.7% | 55.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.32 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 1.78 | 0.39 | 1.28 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 0.22 | 1.39 | 0.66 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 156% | 129% | 165% | 211% | 211% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 27 | 57 | 122 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 255% | 239% | 178% | 152% | 121% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 37 | 69 | 128 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GOOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 38.4% | 30.9% | 1.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -5.8% | 15.4% | -0.59 | 63.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 16.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.6% | 1.73 | -18.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 15.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.3% | -0.70 | 18.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GOOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 19.6% | 32.0% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.7% | 21.0% | 0.23 | 76.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 67.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.5% | 0.42 | 28.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GOOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 24.5% | 29.4% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.1% | 22.1% | 0.46 | 80.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 71.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 14.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.5% | 0.8% | 5.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -6.9% | -9.9% | -16.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -6.4% | -8.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.0% | 6.7% | 11.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.4% | -5.0% | -8.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -6.4% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.0% | 12.5% | 16.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -13.8% | -16.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 14.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.5% | 0.8% | 5.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -6.9% | -9.9% | -16.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -6.4% | -8.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.0% | 6.7% | 11.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.4% | -5.0% | -8.7% |
| 10/24/2023 | -9.6% | -10.6% | -0.1% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.2% | 1.3% | 16.3% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.3% | -12.3% | -12.2% |
| 10/25/2022 | -9.6% | -13.8% | -5.8% |
| 7/26/2022 | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.8% | -1.2% | -11.4% |
| 2/1/2022 | 7.4% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| 10/26/2021 | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% |
| 7/27/2021 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 4.5% |
| 4/27/2021 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.5% |
| 2/2/2021 | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
| 10/29/2020 | 3.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| 7/30/2020 | -3.2% | -2.0% | 7.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -6.4% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.0% | 12.5% | 16.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -13.8% | -16.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/02/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
GOOG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive as Alphabet's revenue growth is accelerating, reaching 24.2% in the latest quarter. Its Google Cloud business has a $157.7 billion backlog, indicating strong forward demand. However, the company must prove its massive AI investment, which drove a negative $5.9 billion Q2 free cash flow, can generate competitive returns and that it can keep pace with rivals.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Advertising Platform & Utility-like Subscription/Consumption(Number of Users/Customers) x (Engagement/Usage) x (Monetization Rate per Unit) The high operating margins of the scaled Google Services (Advertising) segment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful pivot is underway, despite heavy investment costs that are currently pressuring cash flow.
- Overall revenue growth accelerated to 24.2% in the latest quarter.
- Google Cloud backlog was $157.7 billion as of September 30, 2025.
- Google Cloud 2025 operating income was $13,910 million, up from a loss in 2026.
- Company has invested over $150 billion in R&D in the last five years.
PRIMARY RISK
The company is spending heavily to catch up in AI, but reported product delays and negative cash flow suggest it may be falling behind more efficient competitors, risking poor returns on capital.
- Reported negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion for Q2 2026.
- Press reports in July alleged it is 'months behind schedule' on its flagship AI model.
- Operating expenses grew 27% year-over-year, outpacing 20.1% revenue growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Revenue Growth | 24.2% year-over-year growth for the latest-quarter ended 6/30/2026. - Accelerating | The company's top-line growth has demonstrated a clear and consistent acceleration over the last three quarters, indicating strengthening business momentum. |
| Google Cloud Profitability | Accelerating | The Google Cloud segment has achieved a significant operational turnaround, moving from substantial losses to rapidly accelerating profitability over the past three years, demonstrating increasing scale and operating leverage. |
| Google Search & other: Paid clicks change | 5% (FY 2024 vs FY 2023) | Signals user engagement with advertisements on Google's search properties. Growth is driven by factors like increases in search queries on mobile devices and growth in advertiser spending. |
| Google Search & other: Cost-per-click change | 7% (FY 2024 vs FY 2023) | Represents the average amount charged to advertisers per click. Changes are driven by factors including device mix, geographic mix, and advertiser spending. |
| Google Network: Impressions change | (11) % (FY 2024 vs FY 2023) | Measures the number of ads displayed on partner properties. A decline suggests lower volume on the network. |
Investment Cycle vs. Competitive Lag
BULL VIEW
Accelerating revenue (24.2% latest quarter) and a $157.7 billion Cloud backlog prove the AI investment is meeting immense, supply-constrained demand. The current cash burn is a necessary, temporary phase to capture a massive opportunity.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating top-line growth and a strong Cloud backlog offset the market's concern over negative free cash flow and reported AI product delays?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence is contested. While the negative cash flow is a serious concern, the accelerating revenue and large backlog are powerful leading indicators of strong commercial traction.
BEAR VIEW
Negative $5.9 billion Q2 free cash flow and reported delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro model show the company is spending inefficiently just to keep pace with rivals like Microsoft, which grew Azure revenue 43%.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 2025 | Adverse Ad Tech Antitrust Ruling Watch: The final judgment from the court on remedies, specifically any mention of divestitures or structural separation. |
November 2025 | DOJ Ad Tech Case Arguments Watch: Closing arguments are expected in the DOJ advertising technology lawsuit, after which the court will issue its final judgment. |
10/19/2026 | Netflix Earnings Report Watch: Peer Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer AI Narratives Outpace Google Watch: Peer cloud growth rates and commentary on AI-related capital efficiency and return on investment. |
10/28/2026 | Amazon Earnings Report Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Next earnings report | Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow Watch: The reported Q3 Free Cash Flow figure and any further revisions to full-year capex guidance. |
No set date | Further AI Model Delays Disclosed Watch: Company blog posts, developer conference keynotes, or press reports on the status of flagship AI models. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-19 | Announces Custom Silicon Partnership Details: Marvell Technology secured a broad custom silicon partnership with the company, covering AI accelerators and networking controllers, to reinforce its AI infrastructure buildout. | -0.9% $341.06 -> $337.98 |
2026-07-22 | Q2 Earnings Show Capex Surge Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 24.2% but also a negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion and raised its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion. | -8.0% $345.97 -> $318.13 |
2026-07-16 | Reports AI Model Delays Details: News reports on July 16, 2026, stated Google was months behind schedule on its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model, causing the stock to fall 4.4%. | -6.5% $369.97 -> $345.90 |
2026-06-03 | Upsizes Equity Raise for AI Details: The company increased its equity financing package to $84.75 billion to accelerate investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and compute capacity. | +3.0% $357.94 -> $368.81 |
2026-05-25 | Unveils New AI Products Details: At its I/O and Marketing Live events, the company unveiled AI-powered ad formats and the Gemini 3.5 Flash model, designed to be more cost-effective for enterprises. | +0.4% $382.99 -> $384.36 |
2026-04-30 | Reports Strong Q1 Results Details: A news report characterized Q1 2026 as a "Blowout Quarter" with 22% revenue and 81% profit growth, confirming the company's transformation into an AI infrastructure leader. | +10.3% $346.88 -> $382.74 |
2026-03-26 | AI Infrastructure Focus Intensifies Details: Company announced TurboQuant, a technology to reduce AI inference memory needs, and a partnership with Credo Technology to target AI memory and networking bottlenecks. | -5.5% $289.23 -> $273.42 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: GOOG trades at roughly 30% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market), around the 30th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI ExposureMicrosoft appears to have stronger traction in enterprise AI, with over 30 million paid Copilot seats. Its trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 46.8% is also significantly higher.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Cloud Infrastructure LeaderAmazon's AWS remains the cloud market leader, with its CEO noting the business is 'booming right now' with accelerating revenue growth of 36.7% in its latest quarter.
Alphabet is an AI-centric duopoly in digital advertising, using its immense cash flow to fund a capital-intensive race to become a leader in the enterprise cloud market.
The company's core advertising business remains a highly profitable engine, funding massive investments in AI and data center infrastructure. This investment is fueling accelerating growth in the now-profitable Google Cloud segment, which is the company's primary growth vector. The key tension is balancing the high capital expenditures required to compete in AI and cloud against the need to maintain margin discipline and shareholder returns.
Sustained revenue acceleration in Google Cloud, stabilization or growth in advertising metrics (paid clicks), and evidence of operating leverage despite high capex.
Decelerating Cloud growth, margin compression from third-party capacity usage or rising costs, or significant adverse regulatory actions that force changes to its core advertising business model.
Short-term stock price volatility related to individual product announcements or minor legal challenges, unless they signal a fundamental shift in competitive or regulatory landscapes.
Repricing Catalyst
According to press reports in July, the stock price was negatively impacted by news of a delay in its flagship AI model and a significant expansion of expected 2026 capital expenditures, which resulted in negative free cash flow for Q2 2026.
Google Services
$355.1B TTM (84% of Total) · 41% MarginWhat It Is
Sells performance and brand advertising to millions of companies, and a range of consumer products including subscriptions (YouTube TV, Google One), digital content and apps (Google Play), and hardware devices (Pixel family) to the general public.
Who Pays & How
Advertisers pay to connect with users and drive measurable results or build brand awareness across Google's vast ecosystem of properties like Search and YouTube. Consumers pay for premium features, content, and integrated hardware/software experiences.
Competition
Google Cloud
$66.5B TTM (16% of Total) · 28% MarginWhat It Is
Sells cloud-based solutions to enterprise customers of all sizes, including infrastructure (Google Cloud Platform) and collaboration tools (Google Workspace).
Who Pays & How
Enterprise customers pay for scalable and reliable compute, storage, and networking to run their workloads, modernize IT systems, and innovate with AI. They also pay for cloud-based communication and collaboration tools to improve productivity.
Competition
Other Bets
$1.5B TTM (0% of Total) · -560% MarginWhat It Is
A portfolio of early-stage businesses at various stages of development, selling products and services in industries like transportation (Waymo) and health technology.
Who Pays & How
Customers pay for specific services offered by the individual businesses within the portfolio, such as healthcare-related services and internet services.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Interactive Media & Services Resources |
| Social Media Today |
| Search Engine Land |
| Nieman Journalism Lab |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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