Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $165.95 | Market Cap: $205.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $165.95Market Cap: $205.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.6% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.9%, Dist 3Y High is -1.9% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% Key risksGILD key risks include [1] looming patent expirations and subsequent generic competition for its highly profitable HIV franchise and [2] pipeline setbacks, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.9%, Dist 3Y High is -1.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% |
| Key risksGILD key risks include [1] looming patent expirations and subsequent generic competition for its highly profitable HIV franchise and [2] pipeline setbacks, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 11/1/2026
Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations and Led to Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Gilead Sciences announced strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026) on October 29, 2026. The company reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.55, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.19. Total product sales for the quarter increased by 13% year-over-year to $8.3 billion, outperforming analyst expectations of $7.8 billion. Following this strong performance, Gilead raised its full-year 2026 product sales guidance to a range of $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion, an increase from its previous forecast of $30.1 billion to $30.4 billion. This upward revision signaled strong confidence in the company's continued commercial momentum.
2. Exceptional Growth in the HIV Franchise, Driven by Key Products and Prevention Therapies.
The company's core HIV business demonstrated robust growth in fiscal Q3 2026, with sales increasing by 18% year-over-year to $6.2 billion. Biktarvy, a flagship HIV treatment, saw its sales climb 10% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Furthermore, HIV prevention sales nearly doubled compared to the same period in the prior year. The recent U.S. FDA approval and launch of Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg) in August 2026 also contributed to the positive sentiment around Gilead's HIV portfolio.
Show more
Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations and Led to Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Gilead Sciences announced strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026) on October 29, 2026. The company reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.55, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.19. Total product sales for the quarter increased by 13% year-over-year to $8.3 billion, outperforming analyst expectations of $7.8 billion. Following this strong performance, Gilead raised its full-year 2026 product sales guidance to a range of $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion, an increase from its previous forecast of $30.1 billion to $30.4 billion. This upward revision signaled strong confidence in the company's continued commercial momentum.
2. Exceptional Growth in the HIV Franchise, Driven by Key Products and Prevention Therapies.
The company's core HIV business demonstrated robust growth in fiscal Q3 2026, with sales increasing by 18% year-over-year to $6.2 billion. Biktarvy, a flagship HIV treatment, saw its sales climb 10% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Furthermore, HIV prevention sales nearly doubled compared to the same period in the prior year. The recent U.S. FDA approval and launch of Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg) in August 2026 also contributed to the positive sentiment around Gilead's HIV portfolio.
Show more
Updated on 11/1/2026
Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations and Led to Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Gilead Sciences announced strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026) on October 29, 2026. The company reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.55, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.19. Total product sales for the quarter increased by 13% year-over-year to $8.3 billion, outperforming analyst expectations of $7.8 billion. Following this strong performance, Gilead raised its full-year 2026 product sales guidance to a range of $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion, an increase from its previous forecast of $30.1 billion to $30.4 billion. This upward revision signaled strong confidence in the company's continued commercial momentum.
2. Exceptional Growth in the HIV Franchise, Driven by Key Products and Prevention Therapies.
The company's core HIV business demonstrated robust growth in fiscal Q3 2026, with sales increasing by 18% year-over-year to $6.2 billion. Biktarvy, a flagship HIV treatment, saw its sales climb 10% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Furthermore, HIV prevention sales nearly doubled compared to the same period in the prior year. The recent U.S. FDA approval and launch of Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg) in August 2026 also contributed to the positive sentiment around Gilead's HIV portfolio.
3. Significant Expansion and Positive Developments in the Oncology and Inflammation Pipelines.
Gilead's oncology portfolio continued its growth trajectory, with Trodelvy sales increasing by 42% year-over-year to $506 million in fiscal Q3 2026 due to higher demand. Beyond oncology, the company strengthened its inflammation pipeline by announcing in October 2026 an agreement to acquire an investigational oral IL-23R inhibitor, HCXT-2001, targeting inflammatory bowel disease. These strategic advancements underscore Gilead's successful diversification efforts beyond its traditional antiviral focus.
4. Upgraded Analyst Ratings and Increased Price Targets Reflecting Positive Market Sentiment.
Following the encouraging financial results and pipeline updates, multiple research analysts revised their ratings and price targets for GILD. Morgan Stanley, for instance, increased its price target from $163.00 to $183.00 and maintained an "overweight" rating on the stock. Similarly, Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating with a $185.00 price objective, and Needham & Company LLC raised its price target to $200.00 from $170.00. This wave of positive analyst sentiment contributed to increased investor confidence and the stock's upward trend.
Show less
Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations and Led to Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Gilead Sciences announced strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ending September 30, 2026) on October 29, 2026. The company reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.55, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.19. Total product sales for the quarter increased by 13% year-over-year to $8.3 billion, outperforming analyst expectations of $7.8 billion. Following this strong performance, Gilead raised its full-year 2026 product sales guidance to a range of $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion, an increase from its previous forecast of $30.1 billion to $30.4 billion. This upward revision signaled strong confidence in the company's continued commercial momentum.
2. Exceptional Growth in the HIV Franchise, Driven by Key Products and Prevention Therapies.
The company's core HIV business demonstrated robust growth in fiscal Q3 2026, with sales increasing by 18% year-over-year to $6.2 billion. Biktarvy, a flagship HIV treatment, saw its sales climb 10% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions. Furthermore, HIV prevention sales nearly doubled compared to the same period in the prior year. The recent U.S. FDA approval and launch of Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg) in August 2026 also contributed to the positive sentiment around Gilead's HIV portfolio.
3. Significant Expansion and Positive Developments in the Oncology and Inflammation Pipelines.
Gilead's oncology portfolio continued its growth trajectory, with Trodelvy sales increasing by 42% year-over-year to $506 million in fiscal Q3 2026 due to higher demand. Beyond oncology, the company strengthened its inflammation pipeline by announcing in October 2026 an agreement to acquire an investigational oral IL-23R inhibitor, HCXT-2001, targeting inflammatory bowel disease. These strategic advancements underscore Gilead's successful diversification efforts beyond its traditional antiviral focus.
4. Upgraded Analyst Ratings and Increased Price Targets Reflecting Positive Market Sentiment.
Following the encouraging financial results and pipeline updates, multiple research analysts revised their ratings and price targets for GILD. Morgan Stanley, for instance, increased its price target from $163.00 to $183.00 and maintained an "overweight" rating on the stock. Similarly, Jefferies Financial Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating with a $185.00 price objective, and Needham & Company LLC raised its price target to $200.00 from $170.00. This wave of positive analyst sentiment contributed to increased investor confidence and the stock's upward trend.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.3% change in GILD stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 129.48 | 167.47 | 29.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,734 | 30,987 | 4.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.4 | 6.7 | 24.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,242 | 1,242 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GILD | 29.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.2% | 69.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.6% change in GILD stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 129.26 | 167.47 | 29.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,441 | 30,987 | 5.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.4 | 6.7 | 23.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,241 | 1,242 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GILD | 29.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.6% | 65.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.3% change in GILD stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 116.90 | 167.47 | 43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,862 | 30,987 | 7.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.0 | 6.7 | 33.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,245 | 1,242 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GILD | 43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 11.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.2% | 60.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 134.4% change in GILD stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 105.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 71.46 | 167.47 | 134.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,382 | 30,987 | 13.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 6.7 | 105.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,249 | 1,242 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 134.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GILD | 134.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.6% | 17.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 54.7% | 50.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GILD Return | 30% | 24% | -2% | 19% | 37% | 39% | 255% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -15% | 4% | 18% | 29% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GILD Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 62% | 37% | 48% | 60% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GILD Max Drawdown | -10% | -20% | -14% | -27% | -17% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -18% | -26% | -21% | -22% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABBV, MRK, BMY, PFE, JNJ. See GILD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GILD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 436 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2908 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2484 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Gilead Sciences's stock fell -9.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GILD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 436 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2908 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2484 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Gilead Sciences's stock fell -9.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing innovative medicines for areas of unmet medical need across the United States, Europe, and other international markets. The company's core mission involves creating life-saving and life-improving treatments for a range of serious illnesses, working at the forefront of medical science to address complex health challenges.
Gilead's extensive product portfolio targets several critical disease areas. It is a recognized leader in HIV/AIDS treatment, with key products including Biktarvy and Genvoya, and also developed Veklury for COVID-19. Additionally, the company offers significant therapies for liver diseases such as Epclusa and Harvoni. Expanding its reach, Gilead has a growing presence in hematology, oncology, and cell therapy with products like Yescarta and Trodelvy for various cancers. Its primary customers are patients and healthcare providers globally, who rely on these specialized medicines to manage and treat complex and life-threatening conditions.
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The Pfizer or Merck of antiviral and oncology treatments.
Like a Bristol Myers Squibb, but historically a leader in breakthrough antiviral and liver disease medicines.
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- Biktarvy, Genvoya, Descovy, Odefsey, Truvada, Complera/Eviplera, Stribild, Atripla: Products for the treatment of HIV/AIDS.
- Veklury: An injection for intravenous use for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
- Epclusa, Harvoni, Vosevi, Vemlidy, Viread: Products for the treatment of liver diseases.
- Yescarta, Tecartus, Trodelvy, Zydelig: Products for the treatment of hematology, oncology, and cell therapy patients.
- Letairis: An oral formulation for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.
- Ranexa: An oral formulation for the treatment of chronic angina.
- AmBisome: A liposomal formulation for the treatment of serious invasive fungal infections.
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Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to major wholesale distributors, who then distribute them to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. The company's major customers are:
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Daniel P. O'Day, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Daniel P. O'Day joined Gilead Sciences in March 2019 as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Before his tenure at Gilead, he served as the Chief Executive Officer of Roche Pharmaceuticals for over three decades, where he held various executive positions across the company’s pharmaceutical and diagnostics divisions in North America, Europe, and Asia. He was also a member of Roche's Corporate Executive Committee and served on the boards of Genentech, Flatiron Health, and Foundation Medicine. Mr. O'Day holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Georgetown University and an MBA from Columbia University.
Andrew Dickinson, Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Dickinson was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Gilead Sciences, effective November 1, 2019, having joined the company in 2016. In this role, he is responsible for the company's global finance, corporate development, information technology, operations, and strategy organizations. Prior to joining Gilead, Mr. Dickinson was the Global Co-Head of Healthcare Investment Banking at Lazard Frères & Co. for nine years. Earlier in his career, he served as General Counsel and Vice President of Corporate Development at Myogen, Inc., which was acquired by Gilead in 2006. He earned a B.A. in molecular, cellular, and developmental biology from the University of Colorado at Boulder and a J.D. from Loyola University of Chicago.
Johanna Mercier, Chief Commercial & Corporate Affairs Officer
Johanna Mercier joined Gilead in 2019 as Chief Commercial & Corporate Affairs Officer, with responsibility for driving global commercialization and expanding access to Gilead's therapies. Prior to Gilead, she spent 25 years at Bristol-Myers Squibb, where she held various senior leadership roles across the U.S. and international markets, including President and Head of BMS' Large Markets division. Ms. Mercier holds a bachelor's degree in biology from the University of Montreal and an MBA from Concordia University.
Flavius Martin, MD, Executive Vice President, Research
Flavius Martin, MD, joined Gilead as Executive Vice President, Research, in April 2021, overseeing the company's innovative research and preclinical programs. Before coming to Gilead, he was Vice President, Research Biology at Amgen, where he led Oncology, Inflammation, and Cardiometabolic Research and was the site head for Amgen South San Francisco. He also worked as a scientist and leader at Genentech prior to Amgen. Dr. Martin received his MD degree from the University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania, and completed his postdoctoral studies at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
Dietmar Berger, MD, PhD, Chief Medical Officer
Dietmar Berger, MD, PhD, joined Gilead Sciences as Chief Medical Officer on January 2, 2025. In this role, he is responsible for the company’s virology, oncology, and inflammation pipeline, as well as its global Development and Medical Affairs organizations. Dr. Berger is a board-certified internist, hematologist, and oncologist with over 25 years of experience in developing and delivering innovative medicines. Before joining Gilead, he served as Senior Vice President, Chief Medical Officer, and Global Head of Development at Sanofi. His prior experience also includes executive and development roles at Atara Biotherapeutics Inc., Genentech Inc., Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Amgen Inc. He is a Professor of Medicine at the University of Freiburg Hospital in Germany and holds an MD and PhD from the Albert-Ludwigs University School of Medicine.
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The public company Gilead Sciences (symbol: GILD) faces several key risks to its business operations and future growth.
- Intensifying Competition and Market Share Erosion: Gilead operates in highly competitive therapeutic areas, particularly in HIV and oncology, where it faces significant rivalry from other major biopharmaceutical companies such as ViiV Healthcare, Roche, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), Novartis, Pfizer, and Amgen. This competition can lead to market share losses, pricing pressures, and the need for continuous innovation to maintain its market position. Furthermore, the expiration of patents on key drugs can lead to the entry of generic and biosimilar versions, causing substantial revenue declines and impacting profitability. While its major HIV drug, Biktarvy, has primary patent protection until 2027 and other patents extending to 2033, the company has experienced revenue losses and workforce reductions due to patent expirations on other products like Ranexa and Letairis. Gilead has also faced antitrust lawsuits alleging anticompetitive practices aimed at delaying the entry of generic competitors for its HIV treatments, which could result in significant legal and financial consequences.
- Pipeline Dependence and Clinical Trial Setbacks: As a biopharmaceutical company, Gilead's future growth is heavily dependent on the successful development and commercialization of new medicines from its pipeline. There are inherent risks associated with clinical trials, including the potential for unfavorable results, delays in timelines, or even outright failures. For example, the FDA has placed clinical holds on some of Gilead's investigational HIV programs. A notable setback was the abandonment of its anti-CD47 drug magrolimab, which was found to be ineffective and potentially harmful in a Phase 3 study, highlighting the significant financial and strategic risks associated with pipeline failures. Additionally, the company faces "pipeline liability" lawsuits alleging that it delayed bringing safer alternative drugs to market, which could create new legal precedents and financial liabilities.
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Beyond antitrust-related litigation, Gilead is subject to extensive regulatory and legal oversight that can significantly impact its business. This includes the risk of increased government regulation on drug pricing in the United States and Europe, which could pressure operating margins. The company has also faced scrutiny from the SEC regarding oncology revenue reporting and is subject to class-action lawsuits, which introduce financial uncertainties, potential fines, and reputational damage. Regulatory actions, such as FDA clinical holds on development programs, can cause significant delays and impact the trajectory of key pipeline assets.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Gilead Sciences' main products and services:
- HIV Drugs: The global HIV drugs market size was valued at USD 32.85 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 45.07 billion by 2033. Another source indicates the global HIV drugs market size was USD 38.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 66.09 billion by 2034. The market was valued at USD 32,804.43 million in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 51,046.10 million by 2032. North America is the leading region in this market.
- COVID-19 Antiviral Treatments (Veklury): The specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 market size was USD 15.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.17 billion in 2030. The global COVID-19 therapeutics market size was USD 32542.5 million in 2025. The global COVID-19 infection market size was valued at USD 26.82 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 70.31 billion by 2032.
- Hepatitis C (Epclusa, Harvoni, Vosevi): The global hepatitis C testing market size was valued at $1.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $2.6 billion by 2035. The hepatitis C market size reached a value of USD 18.0 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 47.1 billion by 2034. Another report states the global hepatitis C market size was USD 7.95 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 10.62 billion by 2034. The hepatitis C market size was USD 75.72 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 153.67 billion in 2030.
- Hepatitis B (Vemlidy, Viread): The global hepatitis B vaccine market was valued at USD 6.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 12 billion by 2034. The hepatitis B therapeutics market size is forecast to increase by USD 469.5 million between 2023 and 2028. The global hepatitis B market is accounted at USD 4.94 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 6.86 billion by 2035. Another source indicates the global hepatitis B therapeutics market size was USD 2.48 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 6.66 billion in 2034.
- CAR T-cell Therapy (Yescarta, Tecartus): The global CAR T-cell therapy market size was estimated at USD 5.82 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 22.36 billion by 2033. Other estimates include USD 8.95 billion in 2025, projected to USD 19.25 billion by 2034, and USD 20.54 billion in 2025, projected to surpass USD 268.0 billion by 2035. North America dominated the global CAR T-cell therapy market.
- Trodelvy (Oncology): Global sales for Trodelvy are expected to reach nearly $3 billion by 2029.
- Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (Letairis): The global pulmonary arterial hypertension market size was estimated at USD 8.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13.34 billion by 2033. Other estimates include USD 8.11 billion in 2025, estimated to reach USD 11.27 billion by 2031, and USD 8.48 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 13.50 billion by 2034. North America maintains the largest share of this market.
- Chronic Angina (Ranexa): The angina market size was $10.71 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $14.44 billion in 2029. Another source indicates the global angina market is expected to reach $14.84 billion by 2030. The global angina pectoris drugs market size was estimated at USD 11.37 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 15.71 billion by 2030. North America was the largest region in the angina market in 2024.
- Invasive Fungal Infections (AmBisome): The Invasive Fungal Infection Market was valued at USD 7.55 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 9.44 billion by 2030. Another source states the global invasive fungal infection market was valued at USD 6.61 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 9.06 billion in 2030. The invasive fungal infections market size is expected to grow to $10.1 billion in 2030. North America holds the largest market share in the global invasive fungal infection market.
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Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and product advancements:
- Continued Growth in the HIV Franchise: Gilead expects sustained growth from its leading HIV treatments, such as Biktarvy and Descovy. Additionally, the company is seeing significant momentum and growth in its HIV prevention business, particularly with new long-acting therapies like Yeztugo, a twice-yearly injectable, which has exceeded coverage goals and is gaining market share. This HIV prevention market is expected to continue developing and growing for many years.
- Expansion of the Oncology Portfolio: Diversification into oncology is a key driver, with products like Trodelvy showing positive sales momentum and contributing to revenue growth. The acquisition of Arcellx and the potential of anito-cel in the multiple myeloma market are also expected to bolster Gilead's oncology footprint and future revenues. Gilead reported approximately $3 billion in oncology revenues in 2025, accounting for about 12% of total revenues, with a sales target of $800 million for Yeztugo in 2026.
- Growth in the Liver Disease Segment: The company's liver disease business, driven by therapies such as Livdelzi for primary biliary cholangitis, has shown strong performance. Livdelzi, in particular, has seen a positive start to its launch and is projected to exceed $1 billion in peak revenue.
- Robust Pipeline and New Product Launches: Gilead boasts a strong pipeline with plans for up to 10 ongoing and potential new launches through 2027, including four commercial launches planned for 2026. A significant portion of these new products (6 out of 8 planned launches) are outside of its core HIV business, signaling a strategic diversification that is expected to broaden the company's revenue base and drive growth across varied therapeutic areas.
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Share Repurchases
- Gilead's annual share buybacks totaled $1.922 billion in 2025.
- The company repurchased $1.15 billion in shares during 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $1 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- Gilead announced the acquisition of Arcellx for approximately $8 billion in early 2026 to enhance its cell therapy portfolio, focusing on anito-cel for multiple myeloma.
- In March 2024, Gilead acquired CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. for $4.3 billion, integrating Seladelpar into its liver disease portfolio.
- The company anticipated the acquisition of Interius BioTherapeutics for $350 million in cash, with the transaction expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Gilead announced an additional $11 billion investment in its U.S. operations through 2030, bringing its total U.S. manufacturing and R&D investments to over $32 billion.
- The $11 billion investment includes $4 billion allocated to capital projects such as labs and equipment, $5 billion for technology, operations, and R&D site activities, and $2 billion for digital and advanced engineering initiatives.
- Annual capital expenditures were estimated at $563 million in 2025, $523 million in 2024, and $585 million in 2023.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
GILD has outperformed 93% of its 363 Biotechnology peers over 5Y. Biotechnology ranks 9th of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Biotechnology constituents that GILD has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
80%
of 451 industry peers · 40.6% return
3Y
81%
of 398 industry peers · 125.6% return
5Y
93%
of 363 industry peers · 196.9% return
No Biotechnology peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten GILD by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Biotechnology is GILD's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 11.5% | 55.6% | 92.2% | CAH 456% · MCK 357% · COR 180% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 35.1% | 34.9% | 12.0% | HIMS 211% · RDNT 127% · DGX 88% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 38.1% | -3.0% | -3.8% | OSCR 92% · HQY 47% · ELV 5% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 11.3% | 13.0% | -15.1% | THC 262% · NHC 226% · EHC 184% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 5.3% | 10.9% | -20.5% | UFPT 357% · GKOS 336% · TMDX 131% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 60 | -10.9% | 7.2% | -35.5% | LQDA 877% · KNSA 519% · LLY 454% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.3% | 12.1% | -38.7% | LNTH 306% · HAE 64% · MMSI 25% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.0% | -10.9% | -75.2% | NTRA 247% · AXGN 217% · MEDP 196% |
| Biotechnology ← | 364 | -26.1% | -32.8% | -82.1% | TRVI 1027% · ELVN 1012% · DNTH 921% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -27.6% | -55.1% | -83.4% | VEEV -5% · DOCS -56% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 155.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 281.7 |
| Rev LTM | 64,040 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,812 |
| FCF LTM | 14,922 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,720 |
| CFO LTM | 16,993 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,244 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 281.7 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.4 |
| P/EBIT | 29.5 |
| P/E | 39.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA221104 | BIXLENVO | bictegravir sodium | tablet | 8272026 | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| NDA221443 | BIXLENVO SUNLENCA STARTER PACK (COPACKAGED) | bictegravir sodium, lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 8272026 | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| BLA761468 | HEPCLUDEX | bulevirtide-gmod | injection | 5222026 | 9.5% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| NDA220018 | YEZTUGO | lenacapavir | solution | 6182025 | 4.7% | 13.9% | 17.6% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| NDA220020 | YEZTUGO | lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 6182025 | 4.7% | 13.9% | 17.6% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| NDA217899 | LIVDELZI | seladelpar lysine | capsule | 8142024 | 26.1% | 41.8% | 65.7% | 97.7% | 140.6% |
| NDA215973 | SUNLENCA | lenacapavir sodium | solution | 12222022 | -6.8% | -6.6% | -3.0% | 17.3% | 122.2% |
| NDA215974 | SUNLENCA | lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 12222022 | -6.8% | -6.6% | -3.0% | 17.3% | 122.2% |
| NDA214187 | EPCLUSA | sofosbuvir | pellets | 6102021 | 3.0% | 3.5% | -8.5% | 22.7% | 194.8% |
| NDA214787 | VEKLURY | remdesivir | solution | 10222020 | 11.7% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 22.2% | 244.3% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA221104 | BIXLENVO | bictegravir sodium | tablet | 8272026 | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| NDA221443 | BIXLENVO SUNLENCA STARTER PACK (COPACKAGED) | bictegravir sodium, lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 8272026 | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| BLA761468 | HEPCLUDEX | bulevirtide-gmod | injection | 5222026 | 9.5% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| NDA220018 | YEZTUGO | lenacapavir | solution | 6182025 | 4.7% | 13.9% | 17.6% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| NDA220020 | YEZTUGO | lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 6182025 | 4.7% | 13.9% | 17.6% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| NDA217899 | LIVDELZI | seladelpar lysine | capsule | 8142024 | 26.1% | 41.8% | 65.7% | 97.7% | 140.6% |
| NDA215973 | SUNLENCA | lenacapavir sodium | solution | 12222022 | -6.8% | -6.6% | -3.0% | 17.3% | 122.2% |
| NDA215974 | SUNLENCA | lenacapavir sodium | tablet | 12222022 | -6.8% | -6.6% | -3.0% | 17.3% | 122.2% |
| NDA214187 | EPCLUSA | sofosbuvir | pellets | 6102021 | 3.0% | 3.5% | -8.5% | 22.7% | 194.8% |
| NDA214787 | VEKLURY | remdesivir | solution | 10222020 | 11.7% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 22.2% | 244.3% |
| NDA212480 | SOVALDI | sofosbuvir | pellets | 8282019 | 6.5% | 19.6% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 244.1% |
| NDA212477 | HARVONI | ledipasvir | pellets | 8282019 | 6.5% | 19.6% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 244.1% |
| NDA210251 | BIKTARVY | bictegravir sodium | tablet | 2072018 | -20.1% | -5.7% | -16.1% | -10.8% | 178.3% |
| NDA209195 | VOSEVI | sofosbuvir | tablet | 7182017 | 12.6% | 13.4% | 10.6% | -0.1% | 225.5% |
| NDA208464 | VEMLIDY | tenofovir alafenamide fumarate | tablet | 11102016 | -15.2% | -13.1% | -2.5% | -3.1% | 206.4% |
| NDA208341 | EPCLUSA | sofosbuvir | tablet | 6282016 | -3.1% | -9.3% | -10.1% | -9.6% | 191.6% |
| NDA208215 | DESCOVY | emtricitabine | tablet | 4042016 | -9.4% | -16.2% | -27.1% | -15.6% | 156.1% |
| NDA208351 | ODEFSEY | emtricitabine | tablet | 3012016 | -2.5% | -12.2% | -19.9% | -9.0% | 170.4% |
| NDA207561 | GENVOYA | cobicistat | tablet | 11052015 | -19.3% | -19.6% | -31.4% | -28.4% | 125.9% |
| NDA205834 | HARVONI | ledipasvir | tablet | 10102014 | -1.5% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -25.4% | 136.6% |
| NDA203094 | TYBOST | cobicistat | tablet | 9242014 | -16.0% | -8.1% | -5.0% | -23.0% | 125.7% |
| NDA203093 | VITEKTA | elvitegravir | tablet | 9242014 | -16.0% | -8.1% | -5.0% | -23.0% | 125.7% |
| NDA205858 | ZYDELIG | idelalisib | tablet | 7232014 | 17.4% | 14.7% | 30.7% | -2.0% | 171.6% |
| NDA206545 | ZYDELIG | idelalisib | tablet | 7232014 | 17.4% | 14.7% | 30.7% | -2.0% | 171.6% |
| NDA204671 | SOVALDI | sofosbuvir | tablet | 12062013 | 7.6% | 11.4% | 41.4% | 41.7% | 231.6% |
| NDA203100 | STRIBILD | cobicistat | tablet | 8272012 | 32.0% | 47.2% | 105.4% | 275.6% | 758.1% |
| NDA022577 | VIREAD | tenofovir disoproxil fumarate | powder | 1182012 | -1.9% | 11.9% | 63.2% | 230.0% | 933.0% |
| NDA202123 | COMPLERA | emtricitabine | tablet | 8102011 | 12.8% | 53.6% | 61.0% | 235.1% | 1,288.7% |
| NDA050814 | CAYSTON | aztreonam | for solution | 2222010 | -24.1% | -31.4% | -19.6% | -7.0% | 925.0% |
| NDA022081 | LETAIRIS | ambrisentan | tablet | 6152007 | -5.9% | 13.4% | 34.0% | 11.2% | 1,114.3% |
| NDA021937 | ATRIPLA | efavirenz | tablet | 7122006 | 5.7% | 4.7% | 29.3% | 73.8% | 1,488.5% |
Clinical Pipeline
| Drug Candidate | Indication | Phase 3 Trials | Est. Primary Completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacituzumab Govitecan (IMMU-132) | Breast, lung, and endometrial cancers | 8 | Dec 2026 |
| Lenacapavir (GS-6207) | HIV-1 treatment and prevention | 13 | Jan 2028 |
| Domvanalimab / Zimberelimab | Non-small cell lung cancer | 1 | Jun 2028 |
| Seladelpar | Primary biliary cholangitis | 2 | Nov 2028 |
| Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF) | Chronic hepatitis B | 1 | Aug 2017 |
| Bictegravir / Emtricitabine / Tenofovir Alafenamide (B/F/TAF) | HIV-1 infection | 1 | Mar 2025 |
| Emtricitabine / Tenofovir Alafenamide (F/TAF) | HIV infection treatment and prevention | 2 | Jun 2025 |
Active Phase 3 studies led by the company. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Updated 8/28/2026
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biktarvy | 14,334 | 13,423 | 11,850 | 8,624 | |
| Descovy | 2,758 | 2,113 | 1,985 | 1,700 | |
| Genvoya | 1,498 | 1,762 | 2,060 | 2,879 | |
| Yescarta | 1,495 | 1,570 | 1,498 | 695 | |
| Trodelvy | 1,397 | 1,315 | 1,063 | 380 | |
| Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir | 1,272 | 1,596 | 1,537 | 1,462 | |
| Odefsey | 1,167 | 1,288 | 1,350 | 1,568 | |
| Vemlidy | 1,070 | 959 | 862 | 814 | |
| Veklury | 911 | 1,799 | 2,184 | 5,565 | |
| Other Liver Disease | 874 | 467 | 385 | ||
| Royalty, contract and other revenues | 527 | 144 | 182 | 297 | |
| AmBisome | 509 | 533 | 492 | 540 | |
| Other Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) | 500 | 434 | 401 | 195 | |
| Symtuza - Revenue share | 495 | 592 | 529 | 531 | |
| Tecartus | 344 | 403 | 370 | 176 | |
| Other | 290 | 356 | 367 | 281 | |
| Discovery, development and commercialization of innovative medicines in areas of unmet medical need | 27,281 | ||||
| Complera/Eviplera | 258 | ||||
| Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir | 212 | ||||
| Letairis | 206 | ||||
| Other Hepatitis C virus (HCV) | 207 | ||||
| Other hepatitis B virus (HBV) / hepatitis Delta virus (HDV) | 44 | ||||
| Stribild | 189 | ||||
| Truvada | 371 | ||||
| Viread | 111 | ||||
| Total | 29,441 | 28,754 | 27,115 | 27,281 | 27,305 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $167.47 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 208.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/22/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $151.54 | $139.10 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.5% | 20.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.7% | 27.2% |
| Downside Capture | -64.57 | -6.63 |
| Upside Capture | 102.82 | 39.53 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -6.1% | 13.2% |
GILD Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.08 | -0.41 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| Up Beta | -0.82 | 0.49 | 0.70 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| Down Beta | -1.75 | -1.87 | -1.80 | -0.05 | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| Up Capture | 37% | 47% | 108% | 18% | 29% | 13% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 37 | 65 | 130 | 402 |
| Down Capture | -182% | -90% | -58% | -69% | -14% | 20% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 27 | 61 | 121 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GILD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | 43.5% | 27.2% | 1.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.3% | 16.4% | 1.37 | 60.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 11.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.4% | 28.6% | -0.10 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.0% | 20.9% | 1.56 | -12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.7% | 0.48 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.9% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 1.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GILD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | 24.2% | 25.0% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.5% | 15.3% | 0.36 | 52.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 51.5% | 0.28 | 8.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GILD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | 12.4% | 25.7% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.1% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 54.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 36.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.1% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 5.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.1% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -2.6% | 0.4% | 10.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.0% | -1.5% | -4.4% |
| 2/10/2026 | 5.8% | 3.7% | -1.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 1.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | 7.5% | 12.0% | 17.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 12.9% | 13.2% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -7.3% | -9.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.1% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -2.6% | 0.4% | 10.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.0% | -1.5% | -4.4% |
| 2/10/2026 | 5.8% | 3.7% | -1.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 1.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | 7.5% | 12.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 6.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.6% | -1.7% | 4.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | -4.2% | -5.4% | -5.2% |
| 11/7/2023 | -3.4% | -7.3% | -3.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 4.2% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | -1.6% | -6.0% | -7.7% |
| 2/2/2023 | 3.8% | 5.1% | -0.3% |
| 10/27/2022 | 12.9% | 13.2% | 21.4% |
| 8/2/2022 | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | -0.3% | 5.3% |
| 2/1/2022 | -3.9% | -7.0% | -9.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | -3.7% | -1.3% | 4.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -2.2% | -0.8% | 2.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| 2/4/2021 | 4.0% | 1.7% | -1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 12.9% | 13.2% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -7.3% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Dividend Per Share | Reported | 0.82 | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted Loss Per Share | Reported | -4.4 | -4.23 | -4.05 | 18.2% | Lowered | Guidance: -3.58 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Loss Per Share | Reported | -1.2 | -1.03 | -0.85 | 115.8% | Lowered | Guidance: -0.48 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Operating Loss | Reported | -3.15 Bil | -2.95 Bil | -2.75 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Product Sales | Reported | 31.00 Bil | 31.15 Bil | 31.30 Bil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 30.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Product Sales Excluding Veklury | Reported | 30.70 Bil | 30.85 Bil | 31.00 Bil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 29.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Veklury Sales | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 GAAP Product Gross Margin | Reported | 79.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Product Gross Margin | Reported | 87.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Income | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.20 Bil | 2.40 Bil | ||||
| 2026 GAAP Effective Tax Rate | Reported | -55.0% | -52.5% | -50.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 165.0% | 192.5% | 220.0% | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Veklury | Reported | 300.00 Mil | -50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted loss per share | Reported | -3.75 | -3.58 | -3.4 | 17.2% | Lowered | Guidance: -3.05 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted loss per share | Reported | -0.65 | -0.48 | -0.3 | -44.1% | Raised | Guidance: -0.85 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Product Sales | Reported | 30.10 Bil | 30.25 Bil | 30.40 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 30.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Product Sales excluding Veklury | Reported | 29.80 Bil | 29.95 Bil | 30.10 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 29.60 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Veklury | Reported | 600.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Product sales | Reported | 30.00 Bil | 30.20 Bil | 30.40 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 29.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Product sales excluding Veklury | Reported | 29.40 Bil | 29.60 Bil | 29.80 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 29.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted (loss) earnings per share | Reported | -3.25 | -3.05 | -2.85 | -143.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.95 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted (loss) earnings per share | Reported | -1.05 | -0.85 | -0.65 | -109.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.65 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Veklury | Reported | 600.00 Mil | -40.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Product sales | Reported | 29.60 Bil | 29.80 Bil | 30.00 Bil | 4.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 28.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Product sales excluding Veklury | Reported | 29.00 Bil | 29.20 Bil | 29.40 Bil | 6.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 27.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 6.75 | 6.95 | 7.15 | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.75 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 8.45 | 8.65 | 8.85 | 6.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.15 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 169.74 | 15,000 | 2,546,102 | 93,642,756 | Form |
| 2 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 175.25 | 15,881 | 2,783,075 | 99,308,702 | Form |
| 3 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 156.22 | 3,000 | 468,660 | 25,166,417 | Form |
| 4 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 156.22 | 3,000 | 468,660 | 17,759,714 | Form |
| 5 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 147.90 | 15,000 | 2,218,508 | 83,812,699 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 169.74 | 15,000 | 2,546,102 | 93,642,756 | Form |
| 2 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11022026 | 175.25 | 15,881 | 2,783,075 | 99,308,702 | Form |
| 3 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 156.22 | 3,000 | 468,660 | 25,166,417 | Form |
| 4 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 156.22 | 3,000 | 468,660 | 17,759,714 | Form |
| 5 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 147.90 | 15,000 | 2,218,508 | 83,812,699 | Form |
| 6 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 144.22 | 3,000 | 432,646 | 16,827,631 | Form |
| 7 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 145.29 | 3,000 | 435,870 | 23,841,508 | Form |
| 8 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 148.64 | 15,000 | 2,229,592 | 85,784,743 | Form |
| 9 | Welters, Anthony | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 148.62 | 18,000 | 2,675,220 | 1,916,349 | Form | |
| 10 | Bluestone, Jeffrey | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 145.02 | 5,000 | 725,078 | 1,459,726 | Form | |
| 11 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 138.36 | 3,000 | 415,080 | 22,918,781 | Form |
| 12 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 137.64 | 28,000 | 3,853,908 | 16,273,679 | Form |
| 13 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 130.31 | 15,000 | 1,954,694 | 77,162,570 | Form |
| 14 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 129.92 | 3,000 | 389,758 | 15,750,624 | Form |
| 15 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 129.93 | 3,000 | 389,777 | 21,911,433 | Form |
| 16 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 126.29 | 15,000 | 1,894,400 | 76,676,848 | Form |
| 17 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 123.92 | 3,000 | 371,762 | 15,395,163 | Form |
| 18 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 125.40 | 3,000 | 376,200 | 21,524,408 | Form |
| 19 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 131.46 | 15,000 | 1,971,847 | 81,183,162 | Form |
| 20 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 131.29 | 28,000 | 3,676,199 | 16,513,878 | Form |
| 21 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 132.27 | 3,000 | 396,810 | 22,907,974 | Form |
| 22 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 129.16 | 10,000 | 1,291,608 | 81,702,883 | Form |
| 23 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 140.96 | 3,000 | 422,880 | 18,152,688 | Form |
| 24 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 140.96 | 3,000 | 422,880 | 24,835,883 | Form |
| 25 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 136.82 | 10,000 | 1,368,162 | 87,913,575 | Form |
| 26 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 144.23 | 3,000 | 432,690 | 19,006,485 | Form |
| 27 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 144.23 | 3,000 | 432,690 | 25,844,718 | Form |
| 28 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 144.79 | 10,000 | 1,447,859 | 92,997,117 | Form |
| 29 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Comm & Corp Aff Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 154.44 | 28,000 | 4,324,228 | 18,576,883 | Form |
| 30 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 154.43 | 3,000 | 463,290 | 25,910,111 | Form |
| 31 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 150.00 | 115,640 | 17,346,000 | 92,086,800 | Form |
| 32 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1292026 | 139.89 | 10,000 | 1,398,911 | 77,877,104 | Form |
| 33 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1262026 | 135.00 | 115,640 | 15,611,400 | 76,504,230 | Form |
| 34 | Bluestone, Jeffrey | Direct | Sell | 1212026 | 123.50 | 5,000 | 617,500 | 1,101,620 | Form | |
| 35 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 124.31 | 3,000 | 372,930 | 12,831,403 | Form |
| 36 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 124.31 | 3,000 | 372,930 | 18,709,028 | Form |
| 37 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 124.83 | 10,000 | 1,248,272 | 70,739,325 | Form |
| 38 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 122.00 | 3,000 | 366,000 | 18,727,366 | Form |
| 39 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 122.00 | 3,000 | 366,000 | 12,958,962 | Form |
| 40 | Bluestone, Jeffrey | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 125.08 | 5,000 | 625,400 | 1,115,714 | Form | |
| 41 | Kramer, Kelly A | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 127.10 | 2,805 | 356,516 | 170,187 | Form | |
| 42 | O'Day, Daniel Patrick | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 126.54 | 10,000 | 1,265,444 | 72,282,528 | Form |
| 43 | Kramer, Kelly A | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 127.11 | 2,806 | 356,671 | 170,200 | Form | |
| 44 | Dickinson, Andrew D | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 125.23 | 2,500 | 313,075 | 19,354,923 | Form |
| 45 | Mercier, Johanna | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 125.86 | 28,000 | 3,524,173 | 13,491,669 | Form |
| 46 | Telman, Deborah H | EVP, Corporate Affairs & GC | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 122.85 | 53,646 | 6,590,487 | 5,365,659 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 4, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalio Capital Management, LP | $22.8 Mil | 4.8% | 41 | TRIM -43.3% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $14.0 Mil | 3.8% | 25 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $8.8 Mil | 3.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $7.2 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $7.4 Mil | 1.8% | 42 | TRIM -69.8% | 13F |
| Sprucegrove Investment Management LTD | $5.3 Mil | 0.8% | 42 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector Gamma AS | $7.4 Mil | 1.8% | 42 | TRIM -69.8% | 13F |
| Catalio Capital Management, LP | $22.8 Mil | 4.8% | 41 | TRIM -43.3% | 13F |
| Sprucegrove Investment Management LTD | $5.3 Mil | 0.8% | 42 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $14.0 Mil | 3.8% | 25 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $7.2 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalio Capital Management, LP | $22.8 Mil | 4.8% | 41 | TRIM -43.3% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $14.0 Mil | 3.8% | 25 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $8.8 Mil | 3.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $7.4 Mil | 1.8% | 42 | TRIM -69.8% | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $7.2 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Sprucegrove Investment Management LTD | $5.3 Mil | 0.8% | 42 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
GILD Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Current momentum is exceptionally strong, with base business sales growing 16% in Q3, the fastest in a decade. This growth, driven by new products in HIV and Oncology, provides a credible path to outrun the known $1.5 billion revenue impact from 2028 government price-setting on Biktarvy. Near-term pipeline results are critical.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Patent-Protected Franchise(Volume of Prescriptions) x (Net Realized Price per Prescription) Maintaining market leadership and pricing for high-margin, on-patent drugs (especially Biktarvy) while successfully launching new, innovative, high-margin products in oncology and inflammation to diversify the revenue base.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. The latest quarter showed the strongest base business growth in a decade, driven by new products.
Mechanism:
Diversification is working, with 16% base business growth offsetting weakness in smaller segments. The core HIV franchise grew 18% and key oncology drug Trodelvy grew 42%, demonstrating a multi-pronged growth engine that can absorb future pricing pressures on its legacy Biktarvy drug. Management has raised full-year guidance, reflecting this broad-based strength.
Supporting Evidence:
- Q3 base business sales grew 16% year-over-year, the strongest in over a decade.
- Full-year 2026 HIV sales growth guidance was raised to approximately 12%.
- New HIV prevention drug Yeztugo is on track for approximately $1.0 billion in 2026 sales.
- Oncology drug Trodelvy sales re-accelerated to 42% year-over-year growth in Q3.
- Core HIV treatment Biktarvy reached an all-time high U.S. market share of 53%.
PRIMARY RISK
A U.S. government-mandated price cut on Gilead's largest drug, Biktarvy, will create a $1.5 billion revenue hole starting in 2028. If the pipeline falters or new launches underperform, the company faces a significant growth cliff, a risk amplified by the company's high net debt.
Mechanism:
A negative FDA decision for oncology hopeful anito-cel on its December 23 PDUFA date would confirm the pipeline cannot fill the gap.
Supporting Evidence:
- A price discount on Biktarvy in Medicare begins in 2028.
- This price change is expected to create a $1.5 billion net revenue impact in 2028.
- The Cell Therapy business saw sales fall 18% YoY due to competitive headwinds.
- Operating expenses grew 12.2% YoY, outpacing revenue growth of 6.5%.
- Net debt to trailing EBITDA stands at 15.32 times.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| HIV Franchise Sales Growth | 18% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The HIV franchise, Gilead's largest business, has shown consistent and significant acceleration in year-over-year growth over the past three quarters. The latest quarter's performance was described by the CEO on the October 2026 earnings call as being driven by higher demand, favorable pricing, and inventory dynamics. The HIV prevention sub-segment was a standout performer, with sales nearly doubling year-over-year. |
| Trodelvy Sales Growth | 42% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Trodelvy, a key oncology asset central to the company's diversification strategy, showed a strong re-acceleration in growth in the latest quarter. Management attributed the growth to strong demand in both metastatic triple-negative and HR-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer across the U.S. and Europe. The drug has now reached an approximately $2 billion annual run rate. |
| Biktarvy U.S. Market Share (HIV Treatment) | 53% (Q3 2026) | Signals Biktarvy's continued dominance and resilience as the standard of care in the HIV treatment market, which is the company's primary revenue source. |
| Combined PrEP Market Share (Yeztugo and Descovy) | 50% (Q3 2026) | Indicates strong leadership and execution in the high-growth HIV prevention (PrEP) market, a key pillar of the company's growth strategy. |
| Yeztugo Persistency Rate | More than 70% of users returned for their second injection (Q3 2026) | A high rate of patient adherence for the twice-yearly injectable, suggesting a strong, recurring revenue stream and a best-in-class profile that supports long-term adoption. |
Core Investment Debate
Present Momentum vs. Future Price Cliff
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 16% base business growth, the strongest in a decade, and massive share gains in the HIV prevention market as proof the new growth engines are already powerful enough to overcome future headwinds.
CORE TENSION
Can the current 16% base business growth rate compound fast enough to offset the confirmed $1.5 billion Biktarvy revenue reduction in 2028?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
Current evidence favors the bulls. Management raised 2026 guidance and projects growth in total sales and EPS for 2028, even with the Biktarvy impact.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the confirmed $1.5 billion revenue impact on Biktarvy starting in 2028 as an insurmountable hurdle, pointing to the 18% decline in the competitive Cell Therapy market as a sign of execution risk.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
By year-end 2026 | Trodelvy Pipeline Setback Watch: Company press release announcing top-line results from the ASCENT-GYN trial. A failure would temper oncology growth expectations. |
around the end of the year | Trodelvy Endometrial Cancer Data Watch: Phase 3 ASCENT-GYN study update for Trodelvy in advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer. |
1/26/2027 | Peer JNJ Earnings Report Watch: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) scheduled earnings report. |
2/1/2027 | Peer PFE Earnings Report Watch: Pfizer (PFE) scheduled earnings report. |
2/2/2027 | Peers ABBV and MRK Earnings Watch: AbbVie (ABBV) and Merck (MRK) scheduled earnings reports. |
2/3/2027 | Peer BMY Earnings Report Watch: Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) scheduled earnings report. |
February 8, 2027 | Persistent Cell Therapy Decline Watch: Cell Therapy segment revenue in the Q4 report and management's guidance for the segment in 2027. |
Early February 2027 | Lenacapavir PrEP Regulatory Risk Watch: FDA announcement regarding the application. A rejection would be a setback for the HIV prevention franchise's growth narrative. |
early February 2027 | Oral Lenacapavir PrEP Decision Watch: FDA regulatory decision expected for once-weekly oral lenacapavir for PrEP. |
December 23 | Anito-cel Regulatory Decision Watch: FDA announcement of approval, delay (CRL), or rejection. A negative outcome would question the Arcellx acquisition rationale. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Strong Q3 Results and Guidance Update Details: Gilead announced Q3 results with base business sales up 16% year-over-year. The company raised its 2026 product sales guidance but lowered its diluted loss per share guidance. | +7.2% $159.20 -> $170.68 |
2026-09-15 | PAHO HIV Prevention Partnership Details: Gilead and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced a new agreement to accelerate access to twice-yearly lenacapavir for HIV prevention across Latin America and the Caribbean. | +1.4% $145.59 -> $147.68 |
2026-08-27 | Bixlenvo HIV Treatment Approved Details: The U.S. FDA approved Bixlenvo, a new once-daily single-tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV in adults who are virologically suppressed. | -1.6% $147.26 -> $144.86 |
2026-06-24 | Trodelvy First-Line Approval Details: The U.S. FDA approved Trodelvy for the first-line treatment of adult patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. | -1.0% $124.35 -> $123.15 |
2026-05-14 | Gilead Prices Senior Notes Details: The company announced the pricing of senior unsecured notes in an aggregate principal amount of $3 billion. | -2.6% $131.44 -> $128.01 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: GILD trades at roughly 26% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.5x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MRK - Merck
Scale and R&D PowerhouseMerck offers significantly greater scale in R&D, with an absolute spend of $30.5 billion versus Gilead's $6.3 billion, providing more shots on goal for major therapeutic breakthroughs.
Core Thesis: Invest in a pharmaceutical giant with a massive research engine driving long-term growth in oncology and vaccines.
ABBV - a business partner
Diversified Pharma Leadera business partner provides exposure to a different set of therapeutic areas, primarily immunology and aesthetics, offering diversification away from Gilead's concentration in virology and oncology.
Core Thesis: Own a high-yield, diversified biopharma successfully navigating the patent cliff of its legacy blockbuster through strategic acquisitions and pipeline execution.
How Is The Market Pricing GILD?
A dominant, cash-cow HIV franchise is successfully funding a strategic pivot to Oncology and Inflammation, but now faces a direct hit from U.S. drug pricing reform that tests the durability of its core profit engine.
Gilead's investment thesis rests on its highly profitable and durable HIV business, which is now expanding rapidly into the prevention market with its long-acting injectable, Yeztugo. This financial strength is fueling a diversification into high-growth areas, particularly oncology with Trodelvy and a promising cell therapy pipeline. The strategy is showing clear success, with non-HIV products driving the strongest base business growth in a decade. However, the core business faces a significant future headwind from the IRA's price-setting on its flagship drug, Biktarvy, making the successful execution of its pipeline and new launches critical to sustaining long-term growth.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued strong uptake and market share gains for new products like Yeztugo and Trodelvy, positive clinical data from the inflammation or oncology pipelines, and evidence of mitigating the Biktarvy pricing impact.
What will damage the thesis
Faster-than-expected revenue decline for Biktarvy post-2028, clinical trial failures for key pipeline assets (e.g., anito-cel, a company initiative), or increased competitive pressure in cell therapy or HIV.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in wholesaler inventory levels, which management frequently highlights as not being representative of underlying patient demand.
Repricing Catalyst
The potential FDA approval of anito-cel for multiple myeloma by the end of 2026, and upcoming clinical data from the inflammation pipeline, which could validate a third major growth vertical for the company.
What GILD Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Veklury (remdesivir)
$655M TTM (2% of Total)What It Is
An intravenous antiviral treatment for COVID-19, sold to hospitals and healthcare providers.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals purchase the drug, with reimbursement from governments and insurers, for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 or non-hospitalized patients at high risk of severe disease.
Unit sales.
Competition
Other antiviral treatments and vaccines for COVID-19.
Alternative treatments and widespread vaccination have reduced the demand for Veklury.
Veklury was a first-mover treatment for COVID-19, but its moat has diminished as the pandemic has evolved.
GILD Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2022 · Post-Pandemic Re-Focus
+56%
Following a massive revenue contribution from the COVID-19 treatment Veklury in 2021, its sales rapidly declined. This period marked a shift back to the core growth drivers, with the HIV franchise, led by the accelerating Biktarvy, re-establishing itself as the primary revenue engine.
2023-2026 · Diversification Engine Ignites
+126%
This era is defined by the successful execution of the company's diversification strategy. The HIV franchise continued its strong growth, now bolstered by the highly successful launch of the PrEP injectable Yeztugo. Simultaneously, the Oncology franchise began to scale significantly, with Trodelvy and cell therapies becoming meaningful contributors, proving the company could build new growth pillars beyond virology.
2026 onwards · Navigating the IRA Headwind
+43%
While enjoying the strongest base business growth in over a decade, the company is now preparing for a significant, quantified financial impact from the Inflation Reduction Act's price-setting on its largest product, Biktarvy, effective in 2028. The strategic focus is now on launching the next wave of products from its diversified pipeline to outgrow this major headwind.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
6 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · Golden Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Accelerating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Gilead Sciences — Investor Video Playlist
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Products & Services
Gilead's HIV Breakthrough: Lenacapavir Shows 100% Efficacy! #drugindustry #science #trading
Industry Resources
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/3/2026