AbbVie (ABBV)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $234.26 | Market Cap: $414.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
AbbVie (ABBV)
Market Price (3/3/2026): $234.26Market Cap: $414.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% | Key risksABBV key risks include [1] the steep decline of Humira sales due to biosimilar competition, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.8% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x |
| Key risksABBV key risks include [1] the steep decline of Humira sales due to biosimilar competition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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AbbVie (ABBV) stock has gained about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Optimistic 2026 Guidance. AbbVie reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 4, 2026, with an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.71, which exceeded analyst estimates. The company's worldwide net revenues for Q4 2025 reached $16.618 billion, marking a 10.0% increase on a reported basis year-over-year. This growth was largely propelled by its immunology portfolio, with Skyrizi net revenues increasing by 32.5% to $5.006 billion and Rinvoq net revenues growing by 29.5% to $2.374 billion, successfully offsetting the decline in Humira sales. Furthermore, AbbVie projected a strong outlook for 2026, with anticipated adjusted EPS between $14.37 and $14.57, surpassing consensus expectations.
2. Strategic Pipeline Expansion and Key Approvals/Deals. AbbVie advanced its product pipeline through key regulatory milestones and strategic acquisitions during the period. In November 2025, the U.S. FDA approved EPKINLY® (epcoritamab-bysp) in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma. The company further expanded its oncology portfolio in January 2026 by entering a potential $5.6 billion exclusive licensing agreement with RemeGen Co. Ltd. for RC-148, a PD-1/VEGF-targeted bispecific antibody, which included a $650 million upfront payment. Positive topline results from Phase 3 studies evaluating Rinvoq in adults and adolescents with vitiligo were also announced in October 2025, highlighting continued pipeline strength in immunology.
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1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Optimistic 2026 Guidance. AbbVie reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 4, 2026, with an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.71, which exceeded analyst estimates. The company's worldwide net revenues for Q4 2025 reached $16.618 billion, marking a 10.0% increase on a reported basis year-over-year. This growth was largely propelled by its immunology portfolio, with Skyrizi net revenues increasing by 32.5% to $5.006 billion and Rinvoq net revenues growing by 29.5% to $2.374 billion, successfully offsetting the decline in Humira sales. Furthermore, AbbVie projected a strong outlook for 2026, with anticipated adjusted EPS between $14.37 and $14.57, surpassing consensus expectations.
2. Strategic Pipeline Expansion and Key Approvals/Deals. AbbVie advanced its product pipeline through key regulatory milestones and strategic acquisitions during the period. In November 2025, the U.S. FDA approved EPKINLY® (epcoritamab-bysp) in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma. The company further expanded its oncology portfolio in January 2026 by entering a potential $5.6 billion exclusive licensing agreement with RemeGen Co. Ltd. for RC-148, a PD-1/VEGF-targeted bispecific antibody, which included a $650 million upfront payment. Positive topline results from Phase 3 studies evaluating Rinvoq in adults and adolescents with vitiligo were also announced in October 2025, highlighting continued pipeline strength in immunology.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in ABBV stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 225.88 | 233.72 | 3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,644 | 61,160 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 6.9% | 72.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 167.3 | 97.8 | -41.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,769 | 1,769 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.4% | -3.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -0.6% | 44.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.8% change in ABBV stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 207.23 | 233.72 | 12.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,328 | 61,160 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 97.4 | 97.8 | 0.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,768 | 1,769 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.8% | 0.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.6% | 54.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.6% change in ABBV stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 202.25 | 233.72 | 15.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,334 | 61,160 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.6% | 6.9% | -9.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 83.6 | 97.8 | 17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,769 | 1,769 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 15.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.6% | 65.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 69.3% change in ABBV stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 373.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 138.09 | 233.72 | 69.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,054 | 61,160 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 6.9% | -66.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 97.8 | 373.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,771 | 1,769 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 69.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 69.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.1% | 19.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.0% | 56.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABBV Return | 32% | 24% | -0% | 19% | 33% | 3% | 168% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 20% | -3% | 7% | 20% | 12% | 116% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABBV Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 63% | 38% | 47% | 58% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABBV Max Drawdown | -3% | -2% | -16% | 0% | -4% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -11% | -23% | -10% | -17% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, PFE, MRK, BMY, LLY. See ABBV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABBV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 495 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 847 days | 120 days |
Compare to JNJ, PFE, MRK, BMY, LLY
In The Past
AbbVie's stock fell -23.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -23.3% loss requires a 30.4% gain to breakeven.
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About AbbVie (ABBV)
AbbVie Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceuticals in the worldwide. The company offers HUMIRA, a therapy administered as an injection for autoimmune and intestinal Behçet's diseases; SKYRIZI to treat moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in adults; RINVOQ, a JAK inhibitor for the treatment of moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis in adult patients; IMBRUVICA to treat adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL), and VENCLEXTA, a BCL-2 inhibitor used to treat adults with CLL or SLL; and MAVYRET to treat patients with chronic HCV genotype 1-6 infection. It also provides CREON, a pancreatic enzyme therapy for exocrine pancreatic insufficiency; Synthroid used in the treatment of hypothyroidism; Linzess/Constella to treat irritable bowel syndrome with constipation and chronic idiopathic constipation; Lupron for the palliative treatment of advanced prostate cancer, endometriosis and central precocious puberty, and patients with anemia caused by uterine fibroids; and Botox therapeutic. In addition, the company offers ORILISSA, a nonpeptide small molecule gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist for women with moderate to severe endometriosis pain; Duopa and Duodopa, a levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel to treat Parkinson's disease; Lumigan/Ganfort, a bimatoprost ophthalmic solution for the reduction of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with open angle glaucoma (OAG) or ocular hypertension; Ubrelvy to treat migraine with or without aura in adults; Alphagan/ Combigan, an alpha-adrenergic receptor agonist for the reduction of IOP in patients with OAG; and Restasis, a calcineurin inhibitor immunosuppressant to increase tear production, as well as other eye care products. AbbVie Inc. has a research collaboration with Dragonfly Therapeutics, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in North Chicago, Illinois.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for AbbVie:
- A major pharmaceutical company like Pfizer, specializing in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience.
- Amgen, but with a broader portfolio of blockbuster drugs spanning immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
- The dedicated research and drug development arm of a company like Abbott Laboratories, but operating as an independent entity.
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- Humira (adalimumab): A blockbuster biologic drug for various autoimmune and inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and Crohn's disease.
- Skyrizi (risankizumab): An interleukin-23 inhibitor used to treat moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and Crohn's disease.
- Rinvoq (upadacitinib): A JAK inhibitor approved for several inflammatory conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and atopic dermatitis.
- Botox (onabotulinumtoxinA): A neurotoxin widely used for both cosmetic purposes (reducing wrinkles) and therapeutic indications such as chronic migraine and muscle spasticity.
- Venclexta/Venclyxto (venetoclax): An oral medication for certain types of leukemia and lymphoma, specifically chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
- Imbruvica (ibrutinib): A Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor used to treat various B-cell cancers, including chronic lymphocytic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma.
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AbbVie (ABBV) primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to other companies, specifically major pharmaceutical wholesale distributors.
Its major customers in the United States, based on recent financial disclosures, are the three largest pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. These companies purchase a significant portion of AbbVie's products for distribution to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers:
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (Symbol: ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (Symbol: CAH)
- McKesson Corporation (Symbol: MCK)
These three distributors collectively account for a substantial majority of AbbVie's gross revenues in the United States.
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The public company AbbVie (ABBV) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from patent expirations and the need to successfully launch and grow new products.
- Loss of Exclusivity for Humira and Biosimilar Competition: AbbVie's former top-selling drug, Humira (adalimumab), has faced the "patent cliff," with numerous biosimilar versions entering the market since 2023. This has already led to a significant decline in Humira's sales, with U.S. sales dropping by one-third in 2023 and expected to decline further in 2024. The company has spent years trying to lessen its reliance on Humira, which once accounted for more than half of its revenue.
- Pipeline Strength and Over-reliance on Skyrizi and Rinvoq: To offset the revenue loss from Humira, AbbVie is heavily relying on its immunology drugs Skyrizi (risankizumab) and Rinvoq (upadacitinib) to fill the gap. While these drugs have shown promising growth and the company anticipates them generating significant combined sales, there are concerns among analysts that AbbVie's late-stage pipeline is "lighter" compared to its peers. Recent pipeline setbacks, such as the discontinuation of an experimental Alzheimer's drug and the failure of emraclidine in Phase 2 trials, highlight the inherent risks in drug development and the importance of a robust pipeline for sustained growth.
- Competition and Regulatory/Pricing Pressures: Beyond biosimilar competition for Humira, AbbVie faces increasing competition in other therapeutic areas, such as oncology, where its drug Imbruvica has seen sales declines due to competitive dynamics. The broader pharmaceutical industry also faces policy risks, including potential changes to laws and regulations, and pricing pressures from initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act, which can impact the profitability of high-priced drugs.
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- The emergence of next-generation neurotoxins, such as Daxxify (daxibotulinumtoxinA) by Revance Therapeutics, approved in 2022, offers a longer duration of effect compared to traditional botulinum toxins like AbbVie's Botox. This directly challenges Botox's market dominance by providing a differentiated product that may reduce the frequency of treatments, representing a clear new competitive pressure.
- Increased competition in the immunology market from recently approved and highly efficacious biologics and small molecules. Examples include Eli Lilly's Omvoh (mirikizumab) for ulcerative colitis, which received approvals in late 2023 and early 2024 in key markets, and Bristol Myers Squibb's Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) for psoriasis. These new entrants directly compete with AbbVie's key immunology assets like Skyrizi and Rinvoq, intensifying the fight for market share.
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AbbVie (ABBV) operates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily focusing on immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
- Humira (adalimumab): The global market size for Humira was estimated at approximately USD 10.34 billion in 2024. This market is projected to decline to about USD 4.11 billion by 2030, primarily due to the increasing availability of biosimilars following patent expirations. North America holds a leading position in the Humira market, accounting for 85.7% of the global share in 2024, with the U.S. dominating within North America.
- Skyrizi (risankizumab): Global sales for Skyrizi are projected to reach USD 17.1 billion in 2025. In 2024, its sales were approximately USD 11.7 billion. Combined with Rinvoq, AbbVie anticipates their immunology portfolio will generate over USD 31 billion in sales by 2027. North America was the largest region for Skyrizi in 2024.
- Rinvoq (upadacitinib): Global sales for Rinvoq are projected to be USD 8 billion in 2025. Its sales in 2024 were around USD 6 billion. The combined sales of Rinvoq and Skyrizi are expected to exceed USD 31 billion by 2027. The market size for Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA), one of its indications, is estimated to grow from USD 960 million in the 7 major markets (7MM) in 2023.
- Imbruvica (ibrutinib): The global Imbruvica market size was approximately USD 9.6982 billion in 2024. It is expected to expand to USD 44.462 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.30% from 2024 to 2031. North America accounted for over 40% of the global revenue for Imbruvica in 2024.
- Botox (Botulinum Toxin): The global botulinum toxin market, which includes Botox, was valued at USD 9.77 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 15.10 billion by 2030. The medical Botox market specifically had a size of USD 5.4122 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 10.2158 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 9.50% from 2024 to 2031. North America held the highest market share in the botulinum toxin market in 2024.
- Venclexta/Venclyxto (venetoclax): The global venetoclax market size was valued at USD 1.22 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 2.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 12.92% from 2025 to 2033. North America dominates this global market.
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AbbVie (ABBV) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Continued Growth of Immunology Blockbusters: The strong performance of immunology drugs SKYRIZI and RINVOQ is a significant growth driver. These products are consistently exceeding sales expectations, with projections for combined sales to surpass $15 billion by 2027 and over $31 billion by 2027 due to expanded indications and global market penetration.
- Expansion and Performance of the Neuroscience Portfolio: AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio, featuring products such as Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta, is demonstrating robust double-digit revenue growth. Strategic acquisitions, including Cerevel Therapeutics, are expected to further bolster this segment and address unmet needs in neurodegenerative diseases.
- Advancements in the Oncology Pipeline: The oncology portfolio, with products like Venclexta, is also contributing to growth. The acquisition of ImmunoGen is poised to catalyze further expansion and innovation within AbbVie's oncology offerings.
- Strategic Investments in R&D and External Innovation: AbbVie is actively investing in research and development and pursuing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline across core therapeutic areas like immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and new growth areas such as obesity and mood disorders. Recent deals, including the acquisition of Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals and Capstan Therapeutics, aim to expand the psychiatry and immunology pipelines, respectively.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years) for AbbVie (ABBV)
Share Repurchases
- AbbVie repurchased 10 million shares for $1.6 billion in 2023, 8 million shares for $1.1 billion in 2022, and 7 million shares for $1.3 billion in 2024.
- On February 16, 2023, AbbVie's board of directors authorized a $5.0 billion increase to the existing stock repurchase authorization.
- The remaining stock repurchase authorization was $3.5 billion as of December 31, 2024.
Share Issuance
- AbbVie's shares outstanding were 1.773 billion in 2024, showing a 0% decline from 2023.
- Shares outstanding were 1.773 billion in 2023, a 0.28% decline from 2022.
- The company issued and redeemed $7.7 billion of commercial paper during 2024.
Outbound Investments
- AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion in February 2024 (agreement in November 2023) to accelerate its entry into the ovarian cancer treatment market.
- The company acquired Cerevel Therapeutics for $8.7 billion in August 2024 (agreement in December 2023) to significantly strengthen its neuroscience pipeline.
- AbbVie's deal activity surged in 2024 with 17 deals, primarily licensing and R&D collaborations to enhance its pipeline, including a partnership with FutureGen Biopharmaceutical for up to $1.7 billion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease treatment.
Capital Expenditures
- AbbVie's capital expenditures averaged $806.2 million annually from 2020 to 2024, with $974 million in 2024 and a peak of $1.044 billion in the latest twelve months (as of June 2025).
- The company plans to invest over $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing during the next decade to support volume growth and expand into new therapeutic areas like obesity.
- A $195 million investment in its North Chicago manufacturing plant to expand domestic active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production is set to begin construction in fall 2025 and be fully operational by 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In AbbVie Stock | 01/06/2026 | |
| How Does AbbVie Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 01/06/2026 | |
| How Low Can AbbVie Stock Really Go? | 01/06/2026 | |
| AbbVie Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| Should You Buy AbbVie Stock? | 10/02/2025 | |
| ABBV's One-Day Rally Offers a Chance to Reevaluate UTHR | 10/02/2025 | |
| AbbVie vs Zoetis: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Where Could The Next Breakout for AbbVie Stock Come From | 01/06/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: VLO, SLB, HAL | Losers: JBL, CMCSA, ABBV | 01/05/2026 | |
| How Will AbbVie Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 10/30/2025 | |
| ABBV Up 5.5% in One Day, Should You Buy The Stock? | 10/02/2025 | |
| ABBV Surges 5.5% In A Single Day: Where Does It Rank Among Competitors? | 10/02/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ABBV.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 04302022 | ABBV | AbbVie | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.5% | 6.9% | -7.8% |
| 10312018 | ABBV | AbbVie | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.9% | 8.0% | -15.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 176.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 355.0 |
| Rev LTM | 63,898 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21,100 |
| FCF LTM | 12,602 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,173 |
| CFO LTM | 16,642 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 355.0 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 30.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA217906 | EMBLAVEO | avibactam sodium | powder | 2072025 | -2.3% | 5.8% | 21.2% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| NDA216962 | VYALEV | foscarbidopa | solution | 10162024 | -9.2% | -8.2% | 23.3% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| NDA218347 | RINVOQ LQ | upadacitinib | solution | 4262024 | 17.1% | 19.7% | 20.8% | 55.8% | 55.8% |
| NDA214028 | VUITY | pilocarpine hydrochloride | solution/drops | 10282021 | 25.3% | 45.2% | 39.8% | 36.9% | 149.7% |
| NDA215206 | QULIPTA | atogepant | tablet | 9282021 | 26.7% | 54.5% | 40.2% | 53.6% | 158.2% |
| NDA215110 | MAVYRET | glecaprevir | pellets | 6102021 | -6.7% | 9.3% | 28.5% | 28.8% | 141.1% |
| NDA213388 | ORIAHNN (COPACKAGED) | elagolix sodium,estradiol,norethindrone acetate | capsule | 5292020 | 2.9% | 16.1% | 28.3% | 77.3% | 217.7% |
| NDA211911 | DURYSTA | bimatoprost | implant | 3042020 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 21.3% | 80.9% | 225.7% |
| NDA211765 | UBRELVY | ubrogepant | tablet | 12232019 | -27.6% | 10.9% | 20.2% | 61.8% | 235.6% |
| NDA211675 | RINVOQ | upadacitinib | tablet, extended release | 8162019 | 39.6% | 50.1% | 55.9% | 100.4% | 376.9% |
| ... | |||||||||
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyrizi | 11,718 | 7,763 | 5,165 | 2,939 | 1,590 |
| Humira | 8,993 | 14,404 | 21,237 | 20,694 | 19,832 |
| Rinvoq | 5,971 | 3,969 | 2,522 | 1,651 | 731 |
| Imbruvica | 3,347 | 3,596 | 4,568 | 5,408 | 5,314 |
| Botox Therapeutic | 3,283 | 2,991 | 2,719 | 2,451 | 1,387 |
| Vraylar | 3,267 | 2,759 | 2,038 | 1,728 | 951 |
| All other | 3,032 | 3,035 | 4,137 | 5,019 | 2,923 |
| Botox Cosmetic | 2,720 | 2,682 | 2,615 | 2,232 | 1,112 |
| Venclexta | 2,583 | 2,288 | 2,009 | 1,820 | 1,337 |
| Creon | 1,383 | 1,268 | 1,278 | 1,191 | 1,114 |
| Mavyret | 1,311 | 1,430 | 1,541 | 1,710 | 1,830 |
| Other Aesthetics | 1,279 | 1,234 | 1,290 | 1,466 | 760 |
| Juvederm Collection | 1,177 | 1,378 | 1,428 | 1,535 | 718 |
| Other Eye Care | 1,071 | 803 | 747 | 1,169 | 693 |
| Ubrelvy | 1,006 | 815 | 680 | 552 | 125 |
| Linzess/Constella | 954 | 1,108 | 1,035 | 1,038 | 667 |
| Qulipta | 658 | 408 | 158 | ||
| Ozurdex | 494 | 472 | 428 | ||
| Elahere | 479 | 0 | |||
| Duodopa | 447 | 468 | 458 | 511 | 494 |
| Lumigan/Ganfort | 429 | 432 | 514 | 579 | 378 |
| Alphagan/Combigan | 248 | 272 | 346 | 529 | 326 |
| Other Neuroscience | 239 | 276 | 475 | 685 | 539 |
| Epkinly | 146 | 31 | 0 | ||
| Vyalev | 99 | ||||
| Other Oncology | 0 | ||||
| Restasis | 436 | 666 | 1,290 | 787 | |
| Lo Loestrin | 356 | ||||
| Lupron | 752 | ||||
| Orilissa/Oriahnn | 125 | ||||
| Other Women's Health | 192 | ||||
| Synthroid | 771 | ||||
| Total | 56,334 | 54,318 | 58,054 | 56,197 | 45,804 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $233.86 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 413.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $224.12 | $210.36 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.3% | 11.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Downside Capture | 9.50 | 41.22 |
| Upside Capture | 41.68 | 47.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.6% | 30.5% |
ABBV Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.28 | -0.24 | -0.07 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| Up Beta | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Down Beta | -2.03 | -1.33 | -1.08 | -0.57 | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| Up Capture | 45% | 16% | 32% | 32% | 36% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 63 | 131 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -47% | 5% | 17% | 8% | 49% | 28% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 61 | 119 | 348 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABBV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 15.7% | 26.7% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.7% | 17.4% | 0.22 | 65.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 19.3% | 0.63 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.3% | 26.1% | 2.22 | -3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.1% | 0.80 | -0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 16.6% | 0.16 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.7% | 45.2% | -0.32 | 1.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABBV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 21.1% | 22.6% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.1% | 14.5% | 0.37 | 57.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 25.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 17.3% | 1.08 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 28.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.7% | 56.8% | 0.34 | 0.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABBV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 20.4% | 25.7% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.8% | 16.5% | 0.54 | 63.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 42.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.9% | 15.6% | 0.80 | -0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 35.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.5% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 3.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/7/2026 | -4.0% | -4.2% | |
| 10/3/2025 | -1.6% | -1.5% | -8.7% |
| 7/3/2025 | -0.9% | 1.7% | 5.1% |
| 4/3/2025 | -7.3% | -13.6% | -1.9% |
| 1/6/2025 | -0.3% | -2.5% | 8.2% |
| 10/3/2024 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 5.0% |
| 7/3/2024 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 16.6% |
| 4/3/2024 | -5.3% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.1% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -2.5% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.9% | 16.1% | 29.6% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -13.6% | -12.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saleki-Gerhardt, Azita | EVP, CHIEF OPERATIONS OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 198.42 | 42,370 | 8,407,055 | 35,178,279 | Form |
| 2 | Donoghoe, Nicholas | EVP, CHIEF BUS/STRAT OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8072025 | 198.51 | 13,295 | 2,639,253 | 11,562,738 | Form |
| 3 | Stewart, Jeffrey Ryan | EVP, CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4022025 | 210.08 | 58,832 | 12,359,504 | 11,183,469 | Form |
| 4 | Reents, Scott T | EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3182025 | 212.34 | 17,644 | 3,746,527 | 2,458,260 | Form |
| 5 | Gonzalez, Richard A | Direct | Sell | 3042025 | 205.11 | 92,460 | 18,964,471 | 81,038,346 | Form |
ABBV Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a probability-adjusted skew greater than 2.0x (3.89x). This is driven by the high probability (70%) assigned to the upside case, which is justified by management's demonstrated history of excellent execution in the critical post-Humira product transition and a widening competitive moat in the most important customer segment. The downside, while significant, is viewed as less likely than continued successful execution, leading to an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowAbbVie is a large, highly profitable biopharmaceutical company that generates substantial free cash flow, pays a significant dividend, and is focused on capital efficiency. While it has strong growth assets, its core challenge is managing the lifecycle of its massive portfolio, particularly the transition from the Humira era, which fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype's focus on capital efficiency and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is AbbVie's successful pivot from its legacy blockbuster Humira to its next-generation immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. This transition is not merely replacing revenue but actively driving top-line growth and, more importantly, a significant expansion in operating margins as guided by management.
Mechanism:
AbbVie captures value by leveraging its dominant commercial infrastructure and market access to establish Skyrizi and Rinvoq as the new standards of care. The higher net pricing and strong volume growth of these products, combined with operational efficiencies, are set to expand company-wide margins, leading to accelerated EPS growth even with high single-digit revenue growth.
Supporting Evidence:
- The ex-Humira growth platform delivered 14.5% reported growth in Q4 2025, with Skyrizi sales up 32.5% and Rinvoq up 29.5%.
- Management is guiding for an aggressive expansion of adjusted operating margin to approximately 48.5% in 2026.
- AbbVie projects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, providing long-term visibility into the durability of this new portfolio.
- The company has secured dominant formulary access for Skyrizi, with a 45% total prescription share in the US biologics psoriasis market and capture rates exceeding 55%.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the growth rates of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, while still high, are decelerating faster than the market expects, and that access to these drugs could be threatened by payers. This could jeopardize the revenue and margin expansion central to the thesis.
Mechanism:
The thesis breaks if Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) exclude Skyrizi or Rinvoq from preferred formularies in favor of competitor products (like J&J's Tremfya) or biosimilars. This would immediately cap volume growth. Concurrently, if Rinvoq continues to underperform expectations, it signals a competitive weakness, forcing AbbVie to concede more on price and rebates, which would directly pressure the margin expansion story.
Supporting Evidence:
- Both Skyrizi's (+31.9%) and Rinvoq's (+28.6%) YoY growth rates showed a marked deceleration in Q4 2025 compared to prior quarters.
- Rinvoq's sales have missed consensus estimates for two consecutive quarters, indicating potential execution or competitive issues.
- A major drug list administrator removed both Skyrizi and Rinvoq from its formulary for certain conditions, effective January 1, 2026, setting a negative precedent.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Rinvoq Quarterly Revenue | Meet or Exceed Analyst Consensus | After two consecutive misses, another failure to meet expectations would confirm a structural issue with this key growth pillar, severely damaging the bull thesis. |
| Skyrizi YoY Growth Rate | >25% YoY | While deceleration is expected, the growth rate must remain robust. A drop below this level would signal a faster-than-expected maturation or competitive intrusion, threatening long-term growth forecasts. |
| 2027 PBM Formulary Announcements | No new major net exclusions for Skyrizi/Rinvoq | This is the most critical external catalyst. Maintaining broad, preferred access is the bottleneck for the entire volume-driven growth story. A negative announcement would be a thesis-killer. |
Core Investment Debate
Growth Engine Durability: Decelerating Stars vs. Emerging Threats
BULL VIEW
The growth duo remains a dominant force, capturing significant market share with superior formulary access. Their continued expansion will more than offset Humira's erosion and other portfolio weaknesses.
CORE TENSION
Can the impressive, but decelerating, growth of Skyrizi and Rinvoq overcome increasing payer pushback and competitive pressure, ensuring they successfully replace Humira's lost earnings power?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH
The core operational health verdict is 'WEAKENING' due to sequentially decelerating YoY growth rates for both Skyrizi (+31.9% in Q4 vs. +46.0% in Q3) and Rinvoq (+28.6% in Q4 vs. +34.1% in Q3).
BEAR VIEW
Sequential growth deceleration in both key drugs, coupled with formulary exclusions and Rinvoq's consensus misses, signals a peak growth rate and intensifying future headwinds.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential growth rate of Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Any stabilization or re-acceleration would be a significant positive, while further deceleration confirms the bear case. |
Anytime (H1 2026) | PBM Formulary Updates for 2027 Watch: Announcements from major PBMs (e.g., Express Scripts, CVS Caremark) regarding the formulary status of Skyrizi and Rinvoq for 2027. |
By March 2026 | CMS IRA Price Negotiation Precedent Watch: The magnitude of discounts CMS publishes for the 2027 negotiated drugs. Discounts >50% on drugs in similar therapeutic classes would be a negative signal. |
Anytime (H1 2026) | Unexpected Late-Stage Pipeline Readout Watch: Press release announcing top-line results from a Phase 3 trial, particularly for a high-potential asset in oncology or neuroscience. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported third-quarter results that beat analyst estimates and raised its annual profit guidance, driven by strong demand for its immunology drugs. [2, 8] | Fell notably by -4.45% $226.37 -> $216.29 |
2025-11-18 | FDA Approval for Epkinly in Follicular Lymphoma Details: Received FDA approval for Epkinly to treat relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma, marking the third indication for the co-developed cancer drug. [11] | Changed Little (-0.06%) $232.13 -> $232.00 |
2026-01-12 | Strategic Licensing and Manufacturing Deals Details: Announced an exclusive licensing deal with RemeGen for a cancer antibody and the acquisition of a new manufacturing facility in Arizona, signaling strategic growth initiatives. [5] | Changed Little (-0.02%) $220.08 -> $220.04 |
2026-01-16 | Epcoritamab (Epkinly) Phase 3 Topline Results Details: AbbVie announced positive topline results for its cancer drug Epkinly in DLBCL, showing improved progression-free survival, though it did not show a statistically significant improvement in overall survival. [5, 13] | Slight -1.11% pullback $216.75 -> $214.35 |
2026-02-03 | FDA/EMA Applications for Rinvoq in Vitiligo Details: AbbVie submitted applications for Rinvoq to treat vitiligo, a potential label expansion for a key growth driver, indicating pipeline progress. [19] | Flat (0.01%) $225.64 -> $225.66 |
2026-02-04 | Q4 2025 Earnings and FY 2026 Guidance Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock sold off on concerns over decelerating growth in key products and a weaker-than-expected performance from Rinvoq. [2, 3] | Fell notably by -3.79% $225.66 -> $217.11 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating growth and formulary risk, combined with a high valuation, reduces conviction and warrants a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
UTHR
INDUSTRYUTHR exhibits accelerating revenue growth and expanding operating margins over a five-year period, contrasting with ABBV's decelerating growth and portfolio pressures. [15]
Core Thesis: The thesis centers on strong, durable growth in its core pulmonary hypertension franchise, with a history of robust profitability and operating leverage. [15]
AMGN
INDUSTRYWhile a direct competitor, AMGN provides a different risk profile. It serves as a good alternative for investors seeking large-cap pharma exposure but wanting to avoid ABBV's specific growth deceleration issues.
Core Thesis: A diversified large-cap biotech with multiple growth drivers across oncology, inflammation, and bone health, providing a more balanced portfolio than ABBV's concentrated immunology drivers.
How Is The Market Pricing ABBV?
AbbVie is successfully transitioning from a company defined by the singular dominance of Humira to a diversified biopharmaceutical leader, driven by the rapid, multi-billion dollar growth of its next-generation immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
Filter all news through the lens of the post-Humira growth narrative. The only variables that matter are the growth rate of the new immunology portfolio (Skyrizi/Rinvoq) versus the decay rate of Humira and legacy assets.
What will confirm the thesis
Quarterly Skyrizi or Rinvoq revenue growth >+20% YoY; total immunology revenue growing >10% despite Humira declines; positive Phase 3 data readouts for new indications for Skyrizi/Rinvoq; market share gains vs. J&J's Tremfya in IBD.
What will damage the thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq combined growth decelerating below management's +20% YoY target for 2026; faster-than-expected Humira revenue erosion (>35% YoY decline); meaningful market share loss to biosimilars; clinical trial failures in late-stage pipeline assets.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Minor quarterly fluctuations in Botox/Aesthetics revenue; early-stage pipeline announcements without clinical data; legacy drug sales declines (e.g., Imbruvica) that are already expected and modeled; commentary on international Humira sales, as the key erosion story is in the US.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful commercial execution of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which collectively generated ~$25.9 billion in FY2025 and are guided to exceed $31 billion in FY2026. This performance is offsetting the ~$16 billion in Humira revenue erosion since its Loss of Exclusivity (LOE), proving the new immunology franchise can drive a return to strong top-line growth faster than the market initially anticipated.
What ABBV Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Full-Year and Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Results Press Release, Feb 4 2026
Immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira)
$30.4B TTM (49.7% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Skyrizi (risankizumab) for psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); Rinvoq (upadacitinib) for rheumatoid arthritis and IBD; Humira (adalimumab) for a wide range of autoimmune conditions.
Who Pays & How
Major drug wholesalers (McKesson, Cardinal Health, AmerisourceBergen) purchase the drugs, which are reimbursed by Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and governments. They pay because these drugs show high efficacy in treating chronic, debilitating autoimmune diseases, and physicians prescribe them. Biological lock-in is high, as physicians are reluctant to switch patients who are stable on a therapy.
Per-unit drug sale to wholesalers. Revenue recognized on shipment.
Competition
Johnson & Johnson - Tremfya (guselkumab)
J&J's Tremfya is another IL-23 inhibitor competing directly with Skyrizi in psoriasis and IBD.
Excellent clinical data showing high rates of skin and bowel clearance for Skyrizi and Rinvoq, strong commercial execution, and established relationships with gastroenterologists and dermatologists. Patents protect Skyrizi and Rinvoq from biosimilar competition for years.
Neuroscience (Botox Therapeutic, Vraylar)
$10.8B TTM (17.6% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Botox Therapeutic for treating chronic migraine and spasticity; Vraylar for bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder; Ubrelvy and Qulipta for migraine treatment.
Who Pays & How
Insurers and government payers reimburse for these drugs, which treat chronic and difficult-to-manage neurological conditions, allowing patients to function and reducing other healthcare costs.
Per-unit drug sale to wholesalers.
Competition
Biohaven/Pfizer (Nurtec ODT for migraine)
Nurtec ODT is a strong competitor to Ubrelvy/Qulipta in the oral CGRP inhibitor class for migraine.
AbbVie has a comprehensive migraine portfolio with both acute (Ubrelvy) and preventative (Qulipta) treatments. Botox Therapeutic has a long history and strong brand recognition for chronic migraine. Vraylar has a broad label in psychiatric disorders.
Aesthetics (Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm)
$5.2B TTM (8.4% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Botox Cosmetic, a neuromodulator to reduce facial wrinkles; Juvederm Collection, a line of hyaluronic acid-based dermal fillers for facial volume.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay directly out-of-pocket for aesthetic procedures performed by dermatologists and plastic surgeons. They pay for a desired cosmetic outcome.
Per-vial/syringe sale to medical professionals.
Competition
Galderma, Merz Pharma, Ipsen
Offer competing neuromodulators (e.g., Dysport, Xeomin) and dermal fillers, sometimes at lower price points.
The 'Botox' brand is synonymous with the category, creating a powerful consumer-driven moat. Extensive provider training programs and loyalty create high switching costs for practitioners.
Oncology (Imbruvica, Venclexta)
$5.8B TTM (9.5% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
Imbruvica (ibrutinib) for blood cancers; Venclexta (venetoclax) for leukemia.
Who Pays & How
Payers (insurers and governments) reimburse for these high-cost cancer therapies because they extend patient survival and have become standard of care in certain malignancies.
Per-unit drug sale to wholesalers and specialty pharmacies.
Competition
AstraZeneca - Calquence (acalabrutinib)
Newer BTK inhibitors like Calquence have shown improved safety profiles, leading to market share loss for Imbruvica.
Venclexta has a strong moat as a first-in-class BCL-2 inhibitor. Imbruvica, despite competition, has a long track record and broad base of use.
ABBV Evolution: Price Return by Era
2013–2019 · The Humira Supremacy
Building a Fortress on a Single Blockbuster +130% (Jan 2013 - Dec 2019)
Spun off from Abbott Labs in 2013, AbbVie's identity and financial performance were almost entirely defined by Humira, the world's best-selling drug. The company used the massive cash flows from Humira to build out its commercial infrastructure and R&D pipeline while making strategic tuck-in acquisitions like Pharmacyclics in 2015 to gain the cancer drug Imbruvica.
2020–2022 · The Allergan Diversification
Buying Growth to Weather the Patent Cliff +85% (Jan 2020 - Dec 2022)
Facing the inevitable patent expiration of Humira, AbbVie executed a mega-merger, acquiring Allergan for $63 billion in 2020. This move was a deliberate strategy to diversify revenue streams, adding the massive Aesthetics (Botox) and Neuroscience franchises. During this period, the focus shifted to integrating Allergan and accelerating the growth of Skyrizi and Rinvoq in preparation for the Humira decline.
2023-Present · Life After Humira
Executing the Great Transition +35% (Jan 2023 - Feb 2026)
The US loss of exclusivity for Humira began in 2023, marking the most critical test in the company's history. The narrative is now entirely focused on the commercial execution of Skyrizi and Rinvoq. By FY2025, these two drugs generated a combined ~$26 billion, successfully offsetting the Humira decline and propelling AbbVie's total revenue to a new all-time high, proving the transition strategy is working.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is mildly positive. The trend shows early signs of health but hasn't fully committed. Relative to SPY: Mildly outperforming the market and improving; positive 'relative strength' trend building. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
+1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
3 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Consolidating · -
▾
2
Momentum
Mixed
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Emerging Resilience
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.