Chevron (CVX)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $213.21 | Market Cap: $416.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas

Chevron (CVX)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $213.21
Market Cap: $416.0 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 8.2%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 34 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 39 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -18%

Key risks
CVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 34 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 39 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
7 Key risks
CVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more.

CVX in ETFs

Weight = CVX's share of each fund

SPY0.69%
VOO0.61%
IVV0.69%
VTI0.52%
ITOT0.57%
DIA2.6%
IWB0.63%
RSP0.22%
+34 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/5/2026

Chevron (CVX) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Financials. Chevron reported adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion, or $5.28 per share, for fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 30, 2026. This significantly exceeded analysts' consensus estimate of $4.89 per share. The company's net income attributable to Chevron nearly tripled to $9.92 billion compared to fiscal Q3 2025. Furthermore, Chevron demonstrated strong financial discipline, generating $16.0 billion in cash flow from operations and reducing total debt by $3.5 billion in the quarter.

2. Record Refining Operations and Elevated Global Oil Prices. Chevron's downstream segment achieved record U.S. refinery crude unit throughput of 1.09 million barrels per day with a utilization rate of nearly 98% in fiscal Q3 2026. This operational excellence, combined with higher margins on refined product sales, drove downstream earnings to $4.9 billion, a substantial increase from $1.1 billion in fiscal Q3 2025. Concurrently, the upstream segment benefited from a favorable commodity price environment, with the average Brent spot price at $97 a barrel during fiscal Q3 2026, up from $69 a year earlier, contributing to upstream earnings of $5.7 billion. Geopolitical tensions and tightness in global diesel markets further supported these elevated crude realizations and refining margins.

Show more
Updated on 11/5/2026

Chevron (CVX) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Financials. Chevron reported adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion, or $5.28 per share, for fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 30, 2026. This significantly exceeded analysts' consensus estimate of $4.89 per share. The company's net income attributable to Chevron nearly tripled to $9.92 billion compared to fiscal Q3 2025. Furthermore, Chevron demonstrated strong financial discipline, generating $16.0 billion in cash flow from operations and reducing total debt by $3.5 billion in the quarter.

2. Record Refining Operations and Elevated Global Oil Prices. Chevron's downstream segment achieved record U.S. refinery crude unit throughput of 1.09 million barrels per day with a utilization rate of nearly 98% in fiscal Q3 2026. This operational excellence, combined with higher margins on refined product sales, drove downstream earnings to $4.9 billion, a substantial increase from $1.1 billion in fiscal Q3 2025. Concurrently, the upstream segment benefited from a favorable commodity price environment, with the average Brent spot price at $97 a barrel during fiscal Q3 2026, up from $69 a year earlier, contributing to upstream earnings of $5.7 billion. Geopolitical tensions and tightness in global diesel markets further supported these elevated crude realizations and refining margins.

3. Strategic Initiatives Driving Future Growth and Shareholder Returns. During fiscal Q3 2026, Chevron unveiled strategic plans to expand its presence in Venezuela, improving commercial terms and expanding acreage with the potential to more than double production to approximately 600,000 barrels per day by 2031 through a planned $7 billion investment. The company also demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by declaring a quarterly dividend of $1.78 per share, payable in December 2026. Additionally, positive analyst sentiment, including several upgraded price targets, reinforced investor confidence in Chevron's strategic direction and financial outlook.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 9.1% change in CVX stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 101.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)731202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)195.13212.939.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)185,887225,77921.5%
Net Income Margin (%)5.9%11.9%101.7%
P/E Multiple35.115.4-56.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,9801,9571.2%
Cumulative Contribution9.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVX9.1% 
Market (SPY)-1.9%-26.5%
Sector (XLE)3.5%94.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.1% change in CVX stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)430202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)189.90212.9312.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)184,432225,77922.4%
Net Income Margin (%)6.7%11.9%79.2%
P/E Multiple30.715.4-49.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,9911,9571.8%
Cumulative Contribution12.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVX12.1% 
Market (SPY)2.3%-36.1%
Sector (XLE)4.1%94.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 40.3% change in CVX stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202511052026Change
Stock Price ($)151.74212.9340.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)187,736225,77920.3%
Net Income Margin (%)7.3%11.9%63.5%
P/E Multiple19.015.4-18.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,7191,957-12.1%
Cumulative Contribution40.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVX40.3% 
Market (SPY)8.4%-29.9%
Sector (XLE)43.0%91.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 65.6% change in CVX stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202311052026Change
Stock Price ($)128.55212.9365.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)214,089225,7795.5%
Net Income Margin (%)14.1%11.9%-15.2%
P/E Multiple8.015.494.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,8671,957-4.6%
Cumulative Contribution65.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVX65.6% 
Market (SPY)81.3%20.5%
Sector (XLE)58.1%90.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CVX Return46%58%-14%1%10%44%221%
Peers Return51%75%13%-4%17%87%530%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVX Win Rate67%58%50%58%75%55% 
Peers Win Rate62%70%53%45%67%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%45% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVX Max Drawdown-13%-25%-22%-15%-21%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-30%-22%-30%-24%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX. See CVX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCVXS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-14.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven94 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-11.8%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.4%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven140 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-10.3%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven97 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-51.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven347 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven71 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-15.9%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.9%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven41 days62 days

Compare to XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX

In The Past

Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCVXS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-51.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven347 days140 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-43.6%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven77.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven479 days15 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-38.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.5%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven642 days1085 days

Compare to XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX

In The Past

Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Chevron (CVX)

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a global integrated energy and chemicals company engaged in various stages of the energy value chain. It primarily operates through two core segments: Upstream, which focuses on the initial sourcing and production of energy resources, and Downstream, which processes and distributes refined products and chemicals to end-users.

The Upstream segment is responsible for the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas worldwide. This includes processing, liquefaction, and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as moving crude oil through an extensive pipeline network. This segment's main products are crude oil, natural gas, and LNG, primarily serving global energy markets, industrial users, and other energy companies.

Chevron's Downstream segment refines crude oil into a wide range of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then marketed to consumers and businesses. It also manufactures and sells lubricants, renewable fuels, and various commodity petrochemicals, including plastics and fuel additives. This segment caters to diverse markets including transportation, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, and everyday consumers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Chevron is like ExxonMobil for global oil and gas.

Chevron is like Shell for integrated energy and chemicals.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Crude Oil: Explored, developed, produced, and transported globally.
  • Natural Gas: Explored, developed, produced, transported, stored, and marketed worldwide.
  • Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Processed, liquefied, transported, and regasified for global energy markets.
  • Petroleum Products: Refined from crude oil into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
  • Lubricants: Manufactured and marketed for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.
  • Renewable Fuels: Produced and marketed as part of its energy transition efforts.
  • Commodity Petrochemicals and Plastics: Manufactured and marketed for diverse industrial uses.
  • Fuel and Lubricant Additives: Produced and marketed to improve product performance.
  • Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Products: Manufactured from natural gas using advanced conversion technology.
  • Energy Exploration & Production Services: Involves the discovery, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas reserves.
  • Energy Transportation & Logistics Services: Provides transportation for crude oil, natural gas, LNG, and refined products through various networks.
  • Natural Gas Marketing & Storage Services: Offers solutions for marketing and storing natural gas.
  • Financial Services: Includes cash management and debt financing operations.
  • Insurance Operations: Provides internal and external insurance-related services.
  • Real Estate Activities: Involves the management and development of real estate assets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Chevron Corporation (CVX) primarily operates in a business-to-business (B2B) model, serving a diverse global customer base across its integrated energy and chemicals operations. Due to the commodity nature of many of its products and its broad market reach, Chevron typically does not disclose a specific list of its major customers in its public filings. However, based on its business segments, Chevron's major customers generally include large companies in the following categories:

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here is the management team for Chevron (CVX):

Michael K. Wirth
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Michael Wirth has served as Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation since 2018. He joined Chevron in 1982 as a design engineer and has held various leadership positions across the company's Downstream and Chemicals, Midstream and Development, and Global Supply and Trading operations over his more than four-decade career. Wirth holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Colorado, Boulder. There is no information available to indicate that he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.

Eimear P. Bonner
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Eimear P. Bonner became Chevron's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 1, 2024. She is responsible for audit, controllership, investor relations, tax, and treasury activities worldwide. Bonner joined Chevron in 1998 as an offshore petroleum engineer in the United Kingdom. Her career at Chevron includes roles such as President of the Chevron Technical Center and Chief Technology Officer, and General Director of Tengizchevroil (TCO), a Chevron joint venture in Kazakhstan. She holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Queen's University Belfast and master's degrees in advanced chemical engineering and petroleum engineering from Imperial College, London. There is no information available to indicate that she founded or managed other companies, sold companies she was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.

Mark A. Nelson
Vice Chairman, Executive Vice President, Oil, Products & Gas

Mark A. Nelson is Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of Oil, Products & Gas for Chevron Corporation. In this role, he is responsible for the entire value chain, focusing on integrated capital allocation, asset class excellence, and value chain optimization. Nelson joined Chevron U.S.A. Inc. in 1985 as an engineer and has held numerous leadership positions across various segments of the business, including executive vice president of Downstream & Chemicals, vice president of Midstream, Strategy & Policy, and president of International Products. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from California Polytechnic State University.

R. Hewitt Pate
Chief Legal Officer

R. Hewitt Pate has served as Vice President and General Counsel (Chief Legal Officer) of Chevron Corporation since 2009. He directs the company's worldwide legal affairs and is a member of its Executive Committee. Prior to joining Chevron, Pate was a partner at Hunton & Williams LLP, where he headed the firm's Global Competition practice. He also served as Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice from 2003 to 2005, and as Deputy Assistant Attorney General from 2001 to 2003. He earned his bachelor's degree from the University of North Carolina and his law degree from the University of Virginia.

Kevin Lyon
Chief Strategy Officer

Kevin Lyon is the Chief Strategy Officer for Chevron Corporation, a position he assumed effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he leads the development of the company's enterprise strategy, overseeing capital allocation, enterprise portfolio optimization, and sustainability initiatives. Lyon joined Chevron in 1988 and has held senior leadership positions across downstream, midstream, and upstream operations in various international locations. Most recently, he led Chevron's integration of Hess. He holds a bachelor of science in electrical and electronic engineering from the University of Wyoming.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Chevron (CVX) are:
  1. Commodity Price Volatility: Chevron's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Extended periods of low prices, driven by factors such as oversupply or reduced demand due to economic conditions and the energy transition, can significantly impact the company's earnings, cash flows, and capital expenditure programs.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions and Operational Disruptions: As a global energy company, Chevron's operations are exposed to geopolitical risks, including conflicts, civil unrest, and political instability in regions where it operates (e.g., the Middle East, Venezuela, Kazakhstan). These tensions can lead to supply chain disruptions, operational interruptions (such as the shutdown of facilities), and potential changes in regulatory environments, directly affecting production volumes and project economics.
  3. Energy Transition and Regulatory/Environmental Pressures: The accelerating global shift towards lower-carbon energy sources and increasing regulatory scrutiny on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change pose significant challenges. This includes the pressure to adopt cleaner energy solutions, comply with evolving environmental policies, and achieve ambitious ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) targets. Failure to adapt to these trends can result in increased operational costs, limitations on future development, and reputational damage.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerated global energy transition and decarbonization efforts, driven by policy shifts, technological advancements in renewable energy and electric vehicles, and changing consumer and investor preferences, which threaten the long-term demand for Chevron's core fossil fuel products and associated infrastructure.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Chevron (symbol: CVX) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:

  • Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size is projected to reach approximately $3,188.67 billion in 2026. In terms of volume, the global crude oil market reached approximately 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025.
  • Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size is estimated to be $1,591.93 billion in 2026.
  • Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size is projected to grow from $3,128.22 billion in 2025 to $3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia-Pacific was the largest region in this market in 2025.
  • Lubricants: The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 178.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to be worth USD 182.53 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global lubricants market with a market share of 36.80% in 2025. The U.S. lubricants market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 18.82 billion by 2032.
  • Renewable Fuels: The global Renewable Fuel Market size is estimated at USD 136.66 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 276.31 billion by 2030. Specifically, the global renewable diesel market was estimated at USD 25.8 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 27.3 billion in 2026 and USD 57.9 billion by 2035. The North America renewable diesel market alone accounted for USD 12.4 billion in 2025.
  • Petrochemicals and Plastics: The global petrochemical market size was calculated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 743.50 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1,257.50 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific dominated the petrochemicals market with a market share of 52.50% in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Chevron (CVX) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Increased Oil and Gas Production: Chevron anticipates increasing its overall oil and gas production by 2% to 3% annually through 2030, with a projected year-over-year production growth of 7% to 10% in 2026, excluding asset sales. This growth is expected from high-margin assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, where output is targeted to increase by 9% to 10% in 2025. Significant contributions are also expected from offshore projects in Guyana, the Gulf of America, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
  2. Hess Acquisition and Synergy Realization: The acquisition of Hess Corporation is a significant driver, projected to add approximately 465,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Chevron's production. The deal also aims to achieve substantial cost synergies, initially targeting $1 billion, and subsequently boosted to $1.5 billion, coupled with structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This acquisition grants Chevron a 30% interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, a low-cost, high-growth asset.
  3. Cost Reduction and Capital Discipline: Chevron is focused on achieving structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This commitment to capital discipline and efficiency gains is expected to improve net margins and free cash flow, indirectly supporting revenue growth by enhancing overall profitability.
  4. Strategic Project Start-ups and Ramp-ups: The company expects revenue growth from several major projects that are starting up or ramping up. These include the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, the start-up of Ballymore and Whale, and the ramp-up of Anchor in the Gulf of America. Additionally, projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as the Leviathan capacity expansion, Tamar optimization, and Aphrodite entering Front-End Engineering Design (FEED), are anticipated to contribute to increased earnings and free cash flow.
  5. New Energy Ventures: Chevron is diversifying its operations by venturing into new energy solutions. The company plans to launch its first AI-powered data center project in West Texas, targeting operational status by 2027. This initiative represents a step towards expanding revenue streams beyond traditional oil and gas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Chevron expects to repurchase between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares annually through 2030.
  • In 2024, Chevron repurchased $15.23 billion in stock, following $14.94 billion in 2023 and $11.26 billion in 2022.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, share buybacks totaled $3.9 billion, with plans for $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Chevron issued approximately 301 million shares of common stock to Hess Corporation stockholders upon the completion of the Hess acquisition in July 2025.
  • Shares were issued to PDC Energy shareholders as part of the acquisition, with 0.4638 of a Chevron share exchanged for each PDC share.
  • Chevron's shares outstanding increased to 1.997 billion by the end of 2025, representing a 9.91% increase year-over-year.

Inbound Investments

  • BlackRock and Vanguard increased their Chevron holdings by 20.1 million and 27.9 million shares, respectively, in Q3 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • Chevron completed the acquisition of Hess Corporation for $53 billion in an all-stock deal in July 2025, securing a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block and Bakken assets.
  • Chevron acquired PDC Energy for $7.6 billion in an all-stock deal in 2023.
  • In February 2022, Chevron acquired Renewable Energy Group (REG) for $3.1 billion, expanding its biofuels production in the U.S.

Capital Expenditures

  • Chevron's organic capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $18 billion to $19 billion, with approximately $17 billion allocated to upstream spending, focusing on U.S. shale assets ($6 billion) and global offshore projects ($7 billion).
  • For 2025, the organic capital expenditure range was $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, including about $1.5 billion dedicated to lowering carbon intensity and growing new energies businesses.
  • Chevron's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $72.458 billion.

Better Bets vs. Chevron (CVX)

Peer Outperformance in Integrated Oil & Gas

CVX has trailed 67% of its 6 Integrated Oil & Gas peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are IMO and XOM. Integrated Oil & Gas ranks 3rd of 7 industries in Energy by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Integrated Oil & Gas constituents that CVX has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
57%
of 7 industry peers · 45.0% return
3Y
50%
of 6 industry peers · 64.2% return
5Y
33%
of 6 industry peers · 126.8% return
Integrated Oil & Gas peers with revenue growth within 4pp of CVX's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
CVX Chevron 4.3% 15.4x 45.0%64.2%126.8% —
IMO Imperial Oil 4.0% 9.9x 44.2%136.2%318.7% +192pp
XOM Exxon Mobil 4.4% 16.8x 49.6%72.3%202.9% +76pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Energy sector, ranked by 5Y. Integrated Oil & Gas is CVX's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 11 82.5%105.8%280.9% MPC 541% · VLO 426% · PBF 423%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 18 35.6%101.1%159.7% INSW 749% · TRGP 434% · DHT 394%
Integrated Oil & Gas ← 7 44.6%64.2%150.3% IMO 319% · SU 223% · XOM 203%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 33 4.8%13.5%51.2% FTI 749% · SEI 616% · TDW 453%
Oil & Gas Drilling 7 37.8%-3.3%42.5% VAL 122% · NE 88% · RIG 42%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 50 20.7%0.8%41.2% BTE 767% · PR 224% · CNQ 188%
Coal & Consumable Fuels 14 -44.3%-4.4%25.1% CNR 248% · CCJ 156% · UEC 41%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVXXOMCOPMPCVLOPSXMedian
NameChevron Exxon Mo.ConocoPh.Marathon.Valero E.Phillips. 
Mkt Price213.21165.53135.70379.00351.40248.00230.60
Mkt Cap417.2685.3162.2105.7100.198.5134.0
Rev LTM225,779388,23267,749174,800153,327168,192171,496
Op Inc LTM32,90648,28316,76619,85617,57512,45718,716
FCF LTM34,07442,96411,11420,84215,07812,35817,960
FCF 3Y Avg22,75333,1729,14910,1488,3435,6359,649
CFO LTM51,95070,58923,24225,24915,95915,02824,246
CFO 3Y Avg39,67559,52821,36913,4079,2177,87317,388

Growth & Margins

CVXXOMCOPMPCVLOPSXMedian
NameChevron Exxon Mo.ConocoPh.Marathon.Valero E.Phillips. 
Rev Chg LTM20.8%19.5%13.3%31.2%24.6%27.5%22.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%4.4%4.6%6.2%1.7%5.2%4.5%
Rev Chg Q35.4%32.6%29.3%61.0%43.3%46.4%39.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.2%7.5%7.0%13.8%10.0%10.5%9.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM118.4%35.2%33.6%319.4%469.7%625.1%218.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg21.0%0.0%4.1%78.7%121.9%171.9%49.9%
Op Mgn LTM14.6%12.4%24.7%11.4%11.5%7.4%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.3%11.8%23.6%6.4%5.9%3.7%8.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.2%1.7%2.8%3.8%4.3%2.8%2.8%
CFO/Rev LTM23.0%18.2%34.3%14.4%10.4%8.9%16.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.4%16.9%35.2%8.4%6.5%5.0%12.7%
FCF/Rev LTM15.1%11.1%16.4%11.9%9.8%7.3%11.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.0%9.3%15.0%6.3%5.8%3.5%7.8%

Valuation

CVXXOMCOPMPCVLOPSXMedian
NameChevron Exxon Mo.ConocoPh.Marathon.Valero E.Phillips. 
Mkt Cap417.2685.3162.2105.7100.198.5134.0
P/S1.81.82.40.60.70.61.2
P/Op Inc12.714.29.75.35.77.98.8
P/EBIT10.412.18.64.85.65.87.2
P/E15.516.914.07.27.77.810.9
P/CFO8.09.77.04.26.36.66.8
Total Yield9.8%8.5%9.7%15.0%14.3%14.9%12.1%
Dividend Yield3.3%2.5%2.5%1.1%1.4%2.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%5.9%7.0%12.0%11.7%6.8%7.0%
D/E0.10.00.10.30.10.20.1
Net D/E0.00.00.10.20.00.10.1

Returns

CVXXOMCOPMPCVLOPSXMedian
NameChevron Exxon Mo.ConocoPh.Marathon.Valero E.Phillips. 
1M Rtn2.7%0.6%4.9%-12.3%-16.2%-8.1%-3.7%
3M Rtn13.7%7.6%17.0%27.0%16.0%21.3%16.5%
6M Rtn18.9%14.4%19.8%57.5%50.0%49.2%34.5%
12M Rtn45.2%49.8%59.6%107.0%110.9%87.8%73.7%
3Y Rtn64.4%72.5%25.3%168.2%203.3%134.3%103.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.4%2.4%6.0%-12.8%-15.7%-7.2%-2.4%
3M Excs Rtn16.2%9.8%17.0%28.3%18.7%23.2%17.9%
6M Excs Rtn14.1%9.6%15.0%52.7%45.2%44.4%29.7%
12M Excs Rtn30.9%35.7%45.7%96.1%98.6%74.5%60.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-17.6%-10.9%-58.5%82.1%117.1%56.4%22.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Downstream142,410157,847161,625179,565115,307
Upstream88,37987,76883,920106,97870,140
All Other581617597518508
Intersegment revenue elimination-46,938-52,818-49,229-51,344-30,349
Total184,432193,414196,913235,717155,606


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20072001
Upstream14,816 
Downstream3,502 
Chemicals396-128
Exploration and Production 4,312
Refining, Marketing and Transportation 1,814
Total18,7145,998


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Upstream12,82218,60217,43830,28415,818
Downstream3,0221,7276,1378,1552,914
All Other-3,545-2,668-2,206-2,974-3,107
Total12,29917,66121,36935,46515,625


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Upstream256,975188,483194,805183,105184,412
Downstream55,24356,77054,48853,22145,224
All Other11,79411,68512,33921,3839,899
Total324,012256,938261,632257,709239,535


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$212.93 
Market Cap ($ Bil)416.6 
First Trading Date01/02/1970 
Distance from 52W High-9.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$214.64$192.44
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-0.8%10.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility24.6%24.6%
Downside Capture-150.67-102.33
Upside Capture-58.62-40.71
Correlation (S&P 500)-43.4%-34.9%
CVX Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-1.03-0.93-0.98-0.93-0.640.31
Up Beta-1.55-1.55-1.25-1.48-1.040.35
Down Beta-0.35-1.32-0.82-0.39-0.030.80
Up Capture-5%-24%-40%-44%-21%3%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days14243671142418
Down Capture-238%-146%-202%-206%-229%-31%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days8192855109334

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVX
CVX44.5%24.6%1.43-
Sector ETF (XLE)44.8%23.4%1.5091.9%
Equity (SPY)9.5%13.6%0.41-30.2%
Gold (GLD)3.6%28.7%0.11-17.0%
Commodities (DBC)37.7%21.2%1.4057.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.0%14.2%0.55-8.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-20.8%43.3%-0.42-9.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVX
CVX18.1%25.3%0.63-
Sector ETF (XLE)20.4%25.6%0.7090.9%
Equity (SPY)11.3%17.3%0.4829.9%
Gold (GLD)17.5%19.1%0.744.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.2956.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.2%18.9%-0.0525.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.9%51.5%0.2910.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVX
CVX12.4%29.4%0.45-
Sector ETF (XLE)10.2%29.7%0.3891.3%
Equity (SPY)14.9%18.0%0.7052.5%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.5%0.594.4%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3353.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2345.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.3%66.2%1.0112.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020268.5%
Average Daily Volume7.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,956.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20261.8%  
7/31/20262.4%-1.6%5.9%
5/1/2026-1.4%-5.6%-3.0%
1/30/20263.3%4.7%11.8%
10/31/20252.7%-0.4%-1.0%
8/1/2025-0.2%1.0%7.1%
5/2/20251.6%0.6%2.4%
1/31/2025-4.6%-2.8%-1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative121210
Median Positive2.1%1.8%7.1%
Median Negative-3.3%-2.8%-2.8%
Max Positive8.9%5.3%16.3%
Max Negative-6.7%-10.0%-12.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20261.8%  
7/31/20262.4%-1.6%5.9%
5/1/2026-1.4%-5.6%-3.0%
1/30/20263.3%4.7%11.8%
10/31/20252.7%-0.4%-1.0%
8/1/2025-0.2%1.0%7.1%
5/2/20251.6%0.6%2.4%
1/31/2025-4.6%-2.8%-1.0%
11/1/20242.9%5.3%10.1%
8/2/2024-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
4/26/20240.4%-2.8%-3.6%
2/2/20242.9%4.2%1.8%
10/27/2023-6.7%-3.9%-5.7%
7/28/2023-0.5%0.0%0.6%
4/28/20231.0%-6.4%-6.8%
1/27/2023-4.4%-10.0%-12.5%
10/28/20221.2%1.8%1.0%
7/29/20228.9%0.5%9.6%
4/29/2022-3.2%2.8%11.1%
1/28/2022-3.5%-0.9%7.5%
10/29/20211.2%0.3%2.7%
7/30/2021-0.7%-1.3%-2.5%
4/30/2021-3.6%2.0%-1.7%
1/29/2021-4.3%-0.0%16.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative121210
Median Positive2.1%1.8%7.1%
Median Negative-3.3%-2.8%-2.8%
Max Positive8.9%5.3%16.3%
Max Negative-6.7%-10.0%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/05/202610-Q
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/26/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/05/202610-Q
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/26/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/25/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/05/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/21/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/31/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Dividends Per ShareReported 1.78    


Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Structural Cost ReductionsReported3.00 Bil3.50 Bil4.00 Bil   

Insider Activity

Updated 11/4/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gustavson, Jeff BPresident, New EnergiesDirectSell11042026230.7124,4395,638,275880,844Form
2Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10212026226.6540,7009,224,7771,992,507Form
3Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10212026225.612,400541,4661,983,345Form
4Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerSpouse TrustSell8202026205.112,470506,6192,213,944Form
5Walz, Andrew BenjaminPresident, DM&CDirectSell8192026201.0616,8003,377,8332,815Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gustavson, Jeff BPresident, New EnergiesDirectSell11042026230.7124,4395,638,275880,844Form
2Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10212026226.6540,7009,224,7771,992,507Form
3Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10212026225.612,400541,4661,983,345Form
4Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerSpouse TrustSell8202026205.112,470506,6192,213,944Form
5Walz, Andrew BenjaminPresident, DM&CDirectSell8192026201.0616,8003,377,8332,815Form
6Wirth, Michael KChairman and CEODirectSell8182026200.46317,10063,566,8615,273,784Form
7Gustavson, Jeff BPresident, New EnergiesDirectSell8132026194.9514,0442,737,867738,078Form
8Wirth, Michael KChairman and CEODirectSell8072026187.005,5471,037,2664,919,486Form
9Hess, John B TrustSell8052026194.26100,00019,426,03234,587,078Form
10Hess, John B DirectSell8052026194.10710,665137,942,70170,597,649Form
11Hess, John B TrustSell5222026193.20380,00073,414,76553,717,391Form
12Hess, John B TrustSell5082026184.78195,00036,031,524121,591,610Form
13Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell4012026213.3040,2008,574,8571,842,528Form
14Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell3102026192.1247,2009,068,0641,644,163Form
15Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell3032026188.6558,00010,941,8541,614,489Form
16Bonner, Eimear PChief Financial OfficerDirectSell3032026190.6017,4003,316,4401,606,186Form
17Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell3032026186.0635,4756,600,5641,592,322Form
18Bonner, Eimear PChief Financial OfficerDirectSell3032026186.0628,4005,284,0751,568,105Form
19Gustavson, Jeff BPresident, New EnergiesDirectSell3032026186.046,6671,240,325691,322Form
20Walz, Andrew BenjaminPresident, DM&CDirectSell2202026183.831,463  Form
21Knowles, Alana KControllerDirectSell2202026183.282,408  Form
22Booth, Thomas RyderChief Technology & Eng OfrDirectSell2172026182.371,122  Form
23Booth, Thomas RyderChief Technology & Eng OfrDirectSell2172026184.4011,0762,042,375206,893Form
24Walz, Andrew BenjaminPresident, DM&CDirectSell2172026183.40666122,144268,314Form
25Booth, Thomas RyderChief Technology & Eng OfrBooth Family TrustSell2122026184.775  Form
26Walz, Andrew BenjaminPresident, DM&CDirectSell2052026176.5322,2003,919,050117,572Form
27Booth, Thomas RyderChief Technology & Eng OfrDirectSell2052026178.436,0001,070,56684,932Form
28Nelson, Mark AVice ChairmanDirectSell2032026174.1745,8007,976,8441,247,209Form
29Bonner, Eimear PChief Financial OfficerDirectSell2032026175.0132,1005,617,731764,081Form
30Pate, R. HewittChief Legal OfficerDirectSell2032026176.4041,1347,256,038735,412Form
31Knowles, Alana KControllerDirectSell1152026168.003,200537,600202,776Form
32Gustavson, Jeff BVice PresidentDirectSell11252025150.279,3251,401,283251,705Form
33Hess, John B TrustSell11242025150.16275,00041,293,418128,091,433Form
34Hess, John B TrustSell11242025150.75275,00041,456,131170,052,296Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 6, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc.$127.2 Mil14.7%54Hold13F
Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd$31.1 Mil11.0%14New13F
Solus Alternative Asset Management LP$36.8 Mil9.9%10Hold13F
Colrain Capital LLC$24.1 Mil9.3%26ADD +19.8%13F
59 North Capital Management, LP$211.6 Mil6.3%17New13F
Turas Capital Management LP$19.3 Mil4.9%37New13F
Central Securities Corp$53.0 Mil4.4%30Hold13F
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.$11.0 Mil1.8%41ADD +6.0%13F
Haverford Financial Services, Inc.$5.8 Mil1.7%46Hold13F
Boothe Investment Group, Inc.$5.0 Mil1.6%40Hold13F
Keystone Financial Planning, Inc.$5.1 Mil1.4%40TRIM -67.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
59 North Capital Management, LP$211.6 Mil6.3%17New13F
Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd$31.1 Mil11.0%14New13F
Turas Capital Management LP$19.3 Mil4.9%37New13F
Colrain Capital LLC$24.1 Mil9.3%26ADD +19.8%13F
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.$11.0 Mil1.8%41ADD +6.0%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.$25.9 Mil0.8%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Vantage Wealth$18.6 Mil4.0%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Campbell Capital Management Inc$7.2 Mil2.4%46ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Keystone Financial Planning, Inc.$5.1 Mil1.4%40TRIM -67.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
59 North Capital Management, LP$211.6 Mil6.3%17New13F
Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc.$127.2 Mil14.7%54Hold13F
Central Securities Corp$53.0 Mil4.4%30Hold13F
Solus Alternative Asset Management LP$36.8 Mil9.9%10Hold13F
Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd$31.1 Mil11.0%14New13F
Colrain Capital LLC$24.1 Mil9.3%26ADD +19.8%13F
Turas Capital Management LP$19.3 Mil4.9%37New13F
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.$11.0 Mil1.8%41ADD +6.0%13F
Haverford Financial Services, Inc.$5.8 Mil1.7%46Hold13F
Keystone Financial Planning, Inc.$5.1 Mil1.4%40TRIM -67.7%13F
Boothe Investment Group, Inc.$5.0 Mil1.6%40Hold13F

CVX Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

High Conviction

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Strong free cash flow more than funds a total shareholder yield of 10.2%, demonstrating a clear commitment to capital returns.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity Producer

Revenue = Production Volume (BOE) x Average Realized Price ($/BOE) Upstream segment profitability, driven by the spread between realized commodity prices and the cost of production (cost of supply).

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can disciplined execution convert volume growth into superior cash returns?

Evidence suggests yes. The company is successfully integrating new assets, cutting structural costs, and translating operational gains directly into shareholder distributions.

Mechanism:
Supporting Evidence:
  • Achieved $3 billion in structural cost savings 6 months early.
  • Total shareholder yield is 10.2%.
  • Free cash flow covers total shareholder payouts by a factor of 1.36.
  • Net debt was reduced from $33.8 billion to $20.7 billion YoY.
PRIMARY RISK
Commodity Price Reversion

The stock's 48% gain over the last twelve months has been heavily influenced by high energy prices. A significant drop in crude oil or natural gas prices would directly impact earnings and could challenge the current valuation.

Mechanism:
Supporting Evidence:
  • Upstream earnings are closely aligned with volatile industry prices.
  • A June analyst note cited geopolitical premiums for a downgrade.
  • The stock has returned 48% over the last twelve months.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Worldwide Net Oil-Equivalent ProductionNearly 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMbpd) for the third quarter of 2026. - StableThe trend reflects a new, higher production plateau following the Hess acquisition, with strong underlying performance from core assets. The slight sequential dip in Q3 is due to normal operational cadence, not a sign of weakening fundamentals.
Structural Cost ReductionsAchieved $3 billion in annual run-rate savings as of the second quarter of 2026. - AcceleratingManagement has successfully accelerated its cost-cutting initiatives, with over 70% of the savings attributed to durable efficiency gains. The company expanded its target to $3 billion to $4 billion by 2026.
U.S. Refinery Crude Unit Inputs1,063 thousand barrels per day (First six months of 2026)Measures the volume of crude oil processed by U.S. refineries, indicating operational utilization and the scale of the Downstream business. High throughput is critical for meeting product demand.
Total Shareholder Yield10.2% (Trailing-twelve-months as of 11/4/2026)Represents the total return to shareholders from buybacks and dividends as a percentage of market value, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder distributions.
Core Investment Debate

Operational Gains vs. Price Volatility

BULL VIEW

CORE TENSION


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

Current evidence favors the bulls. The company is delivering on volume and cost targets, providing a tangible, operational buffer against price volatility.

BEAR VIEW

Bears argue the stock is a leveraged bet on high oil prices, and operational gains will not be enough to offset a significant price downturn, given the high earnings sensitivity.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
by the end of 2026
Structural Cost Reduction Target
Watch: The company's structural cost reduction target of $3-4 billion is planned to be achieved.
in 2026
Angola Gas Project First Production
Watch: The New Gas Consortium Project in Angola is expected to achieve first production.
in 2026
Guyana Uaru Project First Oil
Watch: The Uaru development in Guyana is expected to achieve first production.
by year-end
Venezuela Production Milestone
Watch: Company is on track to reach approximately 300,000 barrels per day of gross production in Venezuela.
1/27/2027 - 2/3/2027
Negative Read-Through From Peer Reports
Watch: Peer commentary on cost inflation, production issues in shared basins (Permian, Guyana), or weaker-than-expected downstream margins.
1/28/2027
Earnings Miss From Volatile Timing Effects
Watch: Sharp commodity price swings near quarter-end, which could create a large, non-cash accounting impact on reported earnings.
1/28/2027
Company Earnings Report
Watch: Company is scheduled to report its next earnings.
No set date
Geopolitical Production And Logistics Disruption
Watch: News of escalating conflict impacting the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli assets, or the CPC pipeline, leading to wider production shut-ins.
December
Unexpected Increase In Capital Budget
Watch: A 2027 capex budget significantly higher than the current $18 billion to $19 billion range, suggesting cost overruns or lower capital efficiency.
in December
Capital Program Update
Watch: Company to provide an update on its 2027 capital program.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-10-30
Reported Strong Q3 Earnings
Details: Chevron reported third-quarter earnings of $9.9 billion, or $5.06 per share. Adjusted earnings were $10.4 billion, or $5.28 per share.
-1.6%
$231.46 -> $227.77
2026-10-06
Bakken Midstream Asset Restructuring
Details: Chevron announced agreements with Hess Midstream to restructure Bakken midstream contracts, which are expected to reduce unit midstream costs by approximately 50%.
-0.6%
$206.47 -> $205.15
2026-09-02
Venezuela Position Expansion
Details: Chevron announced agreements with Venezuela establishing updated terms for its joint ventures to support future investment, project development, and production growth.
+0.1%
$211.05 -> $211.32
2026-08-17
Angola Oil And Gas Discovery
Details: The company confirmed an oil and gas condensate discovery at the 105-4X exploration well in Block 0, offshore Angola, encountering a column of over 600 meters.
+2.9%
$198.27 -> $203.96
2026-07-31
Strong Q2 Results And Production Records
Details: The company achieved a new U.S. upstream production record of nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and record refinery throughput of over 1 million barrels per day.
+0.5%
$190.65 -> $191.51
2026-06-05
Analyst Rating Downgrade
Details: An analyst note downgraded Chevron from bullish to neutral, citing a 24% year-to-date rally driven by geopolitical oil premiums rather than fundamentals.
+0.5%
$186.72 -> $187.60
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: CVX trades at roughly 23% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
XOM - Exxon Mobil
Global Scale Leader

Exxon Mobil offers significantly larger scale, with revenue 1.7 times that of Chevron and a larger capital budget, making it a primary choice for investors prioritizing global supply security.

Core Thesis: A bet on the largest integrated major to leverage its scale and project pipeline for advantaged growth.
COP - ConocoPhillips
Pure-Play E&P

As a large independent exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips offers more direct exposure to upstream fundamentals without the integrated downstream and chemicals businesses.

Core Thesis: An investment in a high-quality, large-scale upstream asset base with a strong focus on capital efficiency.
How Is The Market Pricing CVX?

A disciplined capital allocator executing on a high-quality, integrated energy portfolio, focused on generating free cash flow and shareholder returns through commodity cycles.

Chevron leverages its scale and integrated model to navigate the volatile energy market. The company's strategy focuses on investing in advantaged, low-cost Upstream projects (like the Permian and Guyana) and optimizing its complex Downstream assets to maximize margins. This disciplined approach, combined with a strong balance sheet, is designed to support consistent and growing shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks, irrespective of commodity price fluctuations.

What will confirm the thesis

News of successful project start-ups, continued capital efficiency gains in shale, favorable fiscal term renegotiations in key regions (e.g., Venezuela, Kazakhstan), and consistent or increased shareholder distributions.

What will damage the thesis

Sustained low commodity prices, major project delays or cost overruns, significant operational disruptions in key assets (e.g., TCO, Australian LNG), or a shift away from capital discipline and shareholder return priorities.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term commodity price swings, minor non-operated production disruptions, or executive leadership changes that do not alter the stated strategy.

Repricing Catalyst

Successful execution and ramp-up of major growth projects (Guyana, Gulf of America), continued production growth, and delivering on structural cost reduction targets, which collectively drive higher free cash flow and shareholder returns.

What CVX Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Upstream
$190.6B TTM (49% of Total)
What It Is

Sells crude oil and natural gas. Operations consist of exploring for, developing, producing, and transporting crude oil and natural gas; processing and transportation associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG); and transporting crude oil via pipelines.

Who Pays & How

Refiners, marketers, and utilities pay for crude oil and natural gas as essential feedstocks and energy sources. They choose suppliers based on availability, logistics, and pricing, which are influenced by global markets.

Prices are closely aligned with industry benchmarks for crude oil (like Brent), natural gas (like Henry Hub), and NGLs. These prices are subject to external factors like global supply and demand, OPEC+ actions, and geopolitical events. LNG contracts are typically long-term and linked to crude oil prices.
Competition
Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and other fully integrated, major global petroleum companies, as well as independent and national petroleum companies.
Competitors vie for the acquisition of crude oil and natural gas leases and properties, as well as the equipment and labor required for development and operation.
Chevron's moat is its large, geographically diverse, and advantaged portfolio of assets, including significant positions in key basins like the Permian, a strong track record of project execution, and technological capabilities.
Downstream
$310.3B TTM (79% of Total)
What It Is

Sells refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, additives, and petrochemicals. Operations consist of refining crude oil, marketing products, manufacturing renewable fuels, and transporting crude and refined products.

Who Pays & How

Industrial consumers and individual consumers pay for fuels, lubricants, and chemical products for transportation and manufacturing needs. Marketing is conducted under the "Chevron," "Texaco," and "Caltex" brands.

Profitability is closely tied to margins on refining and marketing, which are volatile and affected by the supply-demand balance for products and the price of crude oil and other feedstocks.
Competition
Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and other integrated majors, independent refiners, and national oil companies.
Competition exists in the refining, manufacturing, sale, and marketing of fuels, lubricants, additives, and petrochemicals.
Chevron's moat lies in its integrated system, which includes a network of complex refineries, established marketing brands, and logistical infrastructure that allows for optimization across the value chain.
All Other
$1.1B TTM (0% of Total)
What It Is

This segment consists of worldwide cash management and debt financing activities, corporate administrative functions, insurance operations, real estate activities, and technology companies.

Who Pays & How

This is primarily a corporate and support segment, not a customer-facing revenue generator.

Competition
CVX Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2022 · Post-Pandemic Recovery and Upcycle
+131%
Both Upstream and Downstream segments saw significant revenue increases during this period.
2023-2025 · Price Moderation and Portfolio Optimization
-1%
Total revenues moderated from the 2022 peak through 2025 as commodity prices eased. During this time, the company focused on execution, cost discipline, and strategic acquisitions, such as the July 2025 completion of the Hess Corporation acquisition, to strengthen its upstream portfolio for long-term growth.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-4 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · - ▾
2 Momentum Decelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Diminishing Reward ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/5/2026