Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (8/11/2026): $194.98 | Market Cap: $384.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (8/11/2026): $194.98Market Cap: $384.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%, FCF Yield is 7.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 45 Bil, FCF LTM is 27 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 40 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%, FCF Yield is 7.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 45 Bil, FCF LTM is 27 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 40 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
| Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Chevron (CVX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in Crude Oil Prices. The price of crude oil experienced a notable decrease since late April 2026. Brent crude oil, for instance, averaged $85 per barrel in fiscal June 2026, a reduction of $22 per barrel from fiscal May 2026 and $32 per barrel from its peak in fiscal April 2026. Forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected Brent to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026, marking a $27 per barrel reduction from its previous outlook. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to approximately $74.77 per barrel by August 6, 2026. This overall downward trend in commodity prices directly impacted Chevron's upstream profitability.
2. De-escalation of Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East. A significant factor contributing to the decline in crude oil prices was the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. On June 18, 2026, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. By early August 2026, reports indicated a deal to reopen the Strait was close, reducing the perceived risk of supply disruptions and leading to a drop in Brent crude to around $78.52 per barrel and WTI to $74.75 per barrel. This reduced risk premium in oil markets directly pressured Chevron's stock.
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Chevron (CVX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in Crude Oil Prices. The price of crude oil experienced a notable decrease since late April 2026. Brent crude oil, for instance, averaged $85 per barrel in fiscal June 2026, a reduction of $22 per barrel from fiscal May 2026 and $32 per barrel from its peak in fiscal April 2026. Forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected Brent to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026, marking a $27 per barrel reduction from its previous outlook. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to approximately $74.77 per barrel by August 6, 2026. This overall downward trend in commodity prices directly impacted Chevron's upstream profitability.
2. De-escalation of Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East. A significant factor contributing to the decline in crude oil prices was the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. On June 18, 2026, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. By early August 2026, reports indicated a deal to reopen the Strait was close, reducing the perceived risk of supply disruptions and leading to a drop in Brent crude to around $78.52 per barrel and WTI to $74.75 per barrel. This reduced risk premium in oil markets directly pressured Chevron's stock.
3. Substantial Insider Selling Activity. Chevron Director John B. Hess Jr. engaged in significant share divestment during the period. On May 6, 2026, he sold 195,000 shares for approximately $36.03 million. This was followed by another sale of 380,000 shares on May 20, 2026, valued at approximately $73.42 million. The combined insider sales by John B. Hess Jr. totaled around $109.4 million, exceeding the $5 million threshold and potentially signaling a bearish sentiment or lack of confidence from a key insider, which can contribute to downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.8% change in CVX stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 191.56 | 194.91 | 1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 184,432 | 208,711 | 13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 9.9% | 47.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.0 | 18.6 | -39.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,991 | 1,970 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | -45.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 0.9% | 94.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.3% change in CVX stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 173.60 | 194.91 | 12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 186,979 | 208,711 | 11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.8% | 9.9% | 44.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.4 | 18.6 | -29.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,939 | 1,970 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | -43.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 18.7% | 93.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.9% change in CVX stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 145.54 | 194.91 | 33.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 192,935 | 208,711 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 9.9% | 21.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 18.6 | 15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,745 | 1,970 | -11.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 33.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.3% | -24.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 41.3% | 89.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.1% change in CVX stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 144.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 144.24 | 194.91 | 35.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 232,245 | 208,711 | -10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 9.9% | -36.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.6 | 18.6 | 144.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,892 | 1,970 | -4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 35.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.8% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 50.4% | 89.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVX Return | 46% | 58% | -14% | 1% | 10% | 25% | 178% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 75% | 13% | -4% | 17% | 58% | 430% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 70% | 53% | 45% | 67% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVX Max Drawdown | -13% | -25% | -22% | -15% | -21% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -30% | -22% | -30% | -24% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX. See CVX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 479 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 642 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Chevron (CVX)
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a global integrated energy and chemicals company engaged in various stages of the energy value chain. It primarily operates through two core segments: Upstream, which focuses on the initial sourcing and production of energy resources, and Downstream, which processes and distributes refined products and chemicals to end-users.
The Upstream segment is responsible for the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas worldwide. This includes processing, liquefaction, and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as moving crude oil through an extensive pipeline network. This segment's main products are crude oil, natural gas, and LNG, primarily serving global energy markets, industrial users, and other energy companies.
Chevron's Downstream segment refines crude oil into a wide range of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then marketed to consumers and businesses. It also manufactures and sells lubricants, renewable fuels, and various commodity petrochemicals, including plastics and fuel additives. This segment caters to diverse markets including transportation, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, and everyday consumers.
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Chevron is like ExxonMobil for global oil and gas.
Chevron is like Shell for integrated energy and chemicals.
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- Crude Oil: Explored, developed, produced, and transported globally.
- Natural Gas: Explored, developed, produced, transported, stored, and marketed worldwide.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Processed, liquefied, transported, and regasified for global energy markets.
- Petroleum Products: Refined from crude oil into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Lubricants: Manufactured and marketed for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.
- Renewable Fuels: Produced and marketed as part of its energy transition efforts.
- Commodity Petrochemicals and Plastics: Manufactured and marketed for diverse industrial uses.
- Fuel and Lubricant Additives: Produced and marketed to improve product performance.
- Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Products: Manufactured from natural gas using advanced conversion technology.
- Energy Exploration & Production Services: Involves the discovery, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas reserves.
- Energy Transportation & Logistics Services: Provides transportation for crude oil, natural gas, LNG, and refined products through various networks.
- Natural Gas Marketing & Storage Services: Offers solutions for marketing and storing natural gas.
- Financial Services: Includes cash management and debt financing operations.
- Insurance Operations: Provides internal and external insurance-related services.
- Real Estate Activities: Involves the management and development of real estate assets.
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Chevron Corporation (CVX) primarily operates in a business-to-business (B2B) model, serving a diverse global customer base across its integrated energy and chemicals operations. Due to the commodity nature of many of its products and its broad market reach, Chevron typically does not disclose a specific list of its major customers in its public filings. However, based on its business segments, Chevron's major customers generally include large companies in the following categories:
- Airlines: Major air carriers are significant purchasers of jet fuel. Examples of public companies in this category include Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL).
- Electric and Gas Utilities: These companies purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for power generation, heating, and distribution. Examples of public utilities include PG&E Corporation (PCG) and Sempra Energy (SRE).
- Industrial and Chemical Manufacturers: Companies across various industrial sectors are buyers of petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. Examples of public companies in the chemical sector include Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB).
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Michael K. Wirth
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Michael Wirth has served as Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation since 2018. He joined Chevron in 1982 as a design engineer and has held various leadership positions across the company's Downstream and Chemicals, Midstream and Development, and Global Supply and Trading operations over his more than four-decade career. Wirth holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Colorado, Boulder. There is no information available to indicate that he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Eimear P. Bonner
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Eimear P. Bonner became Chevron's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 1, 2024. She is responsible for audit, controllership, investor relations, tax, and treasury activities worldwide. Bonner joined Chevron in 1998 as an offshore petroleum engineer in the United Kingdom. Her career at Chevron includes roles such as President of the Chevron Technical Center and Chief Technology Officer, and General Director of Tengizchevroil (TCO), a Chevron joint venture in Kazakhstan. She holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Queen's University Belfast and master's degrees in advanced chemical engineering and petroleum engineering from Imperial College, London. There is no information available to indicate that she founded or managed other companies, sold companies she was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Mark A. Nelson
Vice Chairman, Executive Vice President, Oil, Products & Gas
Mark A. Nelson is Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of Oil, Products & Gas for Chevron Corporation. In this role, he is responsible for the entire value chain, focusing on integrated capital allocation, asset class excellence, and value chain optimization. Nelson joined Chevron U.S.A. Inc. in 1985 as an engineer and has held numerous leadership positions across various segments of the business, including executive vice president of Downstream & Chemicals, vice president of Midstream, Strategy & Policy, and president of International Products. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from California Polytechnic State University.
R. Hewitt Pate
Chief Legal Officer
R. Hewitt Pate has served as Vice President and General Counsel (Chief Legal Officer) of Chevron Corporation since 2009. He directs the company's worldwide legal affairs and is a member of its Executive Committee. Prior to joining Chevron, Pate was a partner at Hunton & Williams LLP, where he headed the firm's Global Competition practice. He also served as Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice from 2003 to 2005, and as Deputy Assistant Attorney General from 2001 to 2003. He earned his bachelor's degree from the University of North Carolina and his law degree from the University of Virginia.
Kevin Lyon
Chief Strategy Officer
Kevin Lyon is the Chief Strategy Officer for Chevron Corporation, a position he assumed effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he leads the development of the company's enterprise strategy, overseeing capital allocation, enterprise portfolio optimization, and sustainability initiatives. Lyon joined Chevron in 1988 and has held senior leadership positions across downstream, midstream, and upstream operations in various international locations. Most recently, he led Chevron's integration of Hess. He holds a bachelor of science in electrical and electronic engineering from the University of Wyoming.
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- Commodity Price Volatility: Chevron's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Extended periods of low prices, driven by factors such as oversupply or reduced demand due to economic conditions and the energy transition, can significantly impact the company's earnings, cash flows, and capital expenditure programs.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Operational Disruptions: As a global energy company, Chevron's operations are exposed to geopolitical risks, including conflicts, civil unrest, and political instability in regions where it operates (e.g., the Middle East, Venezuela, Kazakhstan). These tensions can lead to supply chain disruptions, operational interruptions (such as the shutdown of facilities), and potential changes in regulatory environments, directly affecting production volumes and project economics.
- Energy Transition and Regulatory/Environmental Pressures: The accelerating global shift towards lower-carbon energy sources and increasing regulatory scrutiny on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change pose significant challenges. This includes the pressure to adopt cleaner energy solutions, comply with evolving environmental policies, and achieve ambitious ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) targets. Failure to adapt to these trends can result in increased operational costs, limitations on future development, and reputational damage.
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Accelerated global energy transition and decarbonization efforts, driven by policy shifts, technological advancements in renewable energy and electric vehicles, and changing consumer and investor preferences, which threaten the long-term demand for Chevron's core fossil fuel products and associated infrastructure.
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Chevron (symbol: CVX) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size is projected to reach approximately $3,188.67 billion in 2026. In terms of volume, the global crude oil market reached approximately 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size is estimated to be $1,591.93 billion in 2026.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size is projected to grow from $3,128.22 billion in 2025 to $3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia-Pacific was the largest region in this market in 2025.
- Lubricants: The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 178.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to be worth USD 182.53 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global lubricants market with a market share of 36.80% in 2025. The U.S. lubricants market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 18.82 billion by 2032.
- Renewable Fuels: The global Renewable Fuel Market size is estimated at USD 136.66 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 276.31 billion by 2030. Specifically, the global renewable diesel market was estimated at USD 25.8 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 27.3 billion in 2026 and USD 57.9 billion by 2035. The North America renewable diesel market alone accounted for USD 12.4 billion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals and Plastics: The global petrochemical market size was calculated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 743.50 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1,257.50 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific dominated the petrochemicals market with a market share of 52.50% in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Chevron (CVX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Oil and Gas Production: Chevron anticipates increasing its overall oil and gas production by 2% to 3% annually through 2030, with a projected year-over-year production growth of 7% to 10% in 2026, excluding asset sales. This growth is expected from high-margin assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, where output is targeted to increase by 9% to 10% in 2025. Significant contributions are also expected from offshore projects in Guyana, the Gulf of America, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Hess Acquisition and Synergy Realization: The acquisition of Hess Corporation is a significant driver, projected to add approximately 465,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Chevron's production. The deal also aims to achieve substantial cost synergies, initially targeting $1 billion, and subsequently boosted to $1.5 billion, coupled with structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This acquisition grants Chevron a 30% interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, a low-cost, high-growth asset.
- Cost Reduction and Capital Discipline: Chevron is focused on achieving structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This commitment to capital discipline and efficiency gains is expected to improve net margins and free cash flow, indirectly supporting revenue growth by enhancing overall profitability.
- Strategic Project Start-ups and Ramp-ups: The company expects revenue growth from several major projects that are starting up or ramping up. These include the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, the start-up of Ballymore and Whale, and the ramp-up of Anchor in the Gulf of America. Additionally, projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as the Leviathan capacity expansion, Tamar optimization, and Aphrodite entering Front-End Engineering Design (FEED), are anticipated to contribute to increased earnings and free cash flow.
- New Energy Ventures: Chevron is diversifying its operations by venturing into new energy solutions. The company plans to launch its first AI-powered data center project in West Texas, targeting operational status by 2027. This initiative represents a step towards expanding revenue streams beyond traditional oil and gas.
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Share Repurchases
- Chevron expects to repurchase between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares annually through 2030.
- In 2024, Chevron repurchased $15.23 billion in stock, following $14.94 billion in 2023 and $11.26 billion in 2022.
- In the first quarter of 2025, share buybacks totaled $3.9 billion, with plans for $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- Chevron issued approximately 301 million shares of common stock to Hess Corporation stockholders upon the completion of the Hess acquisition in July 2025.
- Shares were issued to PDC Energy shareholders as part of the acquisition, with 0.4638 of a Chevron share exchanged for each PDC share.
- Chevron's shares outstanding increased to 1.997 billion by the end of 2025, representing a 9.91% increase year-over-year.
Inbound Investments
- BlackRock and Vanguard increased their Chevron holdings by 20.1 million and 27.9 million shares, respectively, in Q3 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Chevron completed the acquisition of Hess Corporation for $53 billion in an all-stock deal in July 2025, securing a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block and Bakken assets.
- Chevron acquired PDC Energy for $7.6 billion in an all-stock deal in 2023.
- In February 2022, Chevron acquired Renewable Energy Group (REG) for $3.1 billion, expanding its biofuels production in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Chevron's organic capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $18 billion to $19 billion, with approximately $17 billion allocated to upstream spending, focusing on U.S. shale assets ($6 billion) and global offshore projects ($7 billion).
- For 2025, the organic capital expenditure range was $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, including about $1.5 billion dedicated to lowering carbon intensity and growing new energies businesses.
- Chevron's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $72.458 billion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 205.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 120.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152,872 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12,709 |
| FCF LTM | 11,510 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,610 |
| CFO LTM | 19,526 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 50.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 121.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 120.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.6 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 14.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 70.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 81.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 48.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downstream | 142,410 | 157,847 | 161,625 | 179,565 | 115,307 |
| Upstream | 88,379 | 87,768 | 83,920 | 106,978 | 70,140 |
| All Other | 581 | 617 | 597 | 518 | 508 |
| Intersegment revenue elimination | -46,938 | -52,818 | -49,229 | -51,344 | -30,349 |
| Total | 184,432 | 193,414 | 196,913 | 235,717 | 155,606 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 14,816 | |
| Downstream | 3,502 | |
| Chemicals | 396 | -128 |
| Exploration and Production | 4,312 | |
| Refining, Marketing and Transportation | 1,814 | |
| Total | 18,714 | 5,998 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 12,822 | 18,602 | 17,438 | 30,284 | 15,818 |
| Downstream | 3,022 | 1,727 | 6,137 | 8,155 | 2,914 |
| All Other | -3,545 | -2,668 | -2,206 | -2,974 | -3,107 |
| Total | 12,299 | 17,661 | 21,369 | 35,465 | 15,625 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 256,975 | 188,483 | 194,805 | 183,105 | 184,412 |
| Downstream | 55,243 | 56,770 | 54,488 | 53,221 | 45,224 |
| All Other | 11,794 | 11,685 | 12,339 | 21,383 | 9,899 |
| Total | 324,012 | 256,938 | 261,632 | 257,709 | 239,535 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $194.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 386.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $183.08 | $174.60 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 6.5% | 11.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.4% | 23.5% |
| Downside Capture | -136.84 | -82.62 |
| Upside Capture | -81.70 | -32.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -45.4% | -24.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.89 | -0.68 | -0.89 | -0.77 | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| Up Beta | 0.85 | -1.20 | -1.51 | -1.22 | -0.70 | 0.38 |
| Down Beta | -0.58 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.81 |
| Up Capture | -16% | -48% | -65% | -41% | -15% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 35 | 71 | 140 | 414 |
| Down Capture | -321% | -114% | -135% | -171% | -135% | 16% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 28 | 55 | 112 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 32.7% | 23.5% | 1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 46.2% | 21.6% | 1.66 | 90.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.4% | 12.8% | 1.37 | -24.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.7% | 28.4% | 0.88 | -11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.2% | 20.1% | 1.46 | 55.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.4% | 13.8% | 0.60 | -3.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.9% | 43.0% | -1.27 | 0.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 18.7% | 25.2% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.0% | 25.8% | 0.82 | 90.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 32.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.6% | 0.83 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.6% | 0.36 | 56.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.6% | 52.9% | 0.39 | 11.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 11.3% | 29.3% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.3% | 29.6% | 0.38 | 91.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 53.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.7% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 53.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 45.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | 2.4% | -1.6% | |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.4% | -5.6% | -3.0% |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2026 | 2.4% | -1.6% | |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.4% | -5.6% | -3.0% |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 0.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% |
| 2/2/2024 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | -6.7% | -3.9% | -5.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 4/28/2023 | 1.0% | -6.4% | -6.8% |
| 1/27/2023 | -4.4% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
| 10/28/2022 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/29/2022 | 8.9% | 0.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -3.2% | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | -3.5% | -0.9% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2021 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 2.7% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -3.6% | 2.0% | -1.7% |
| 1/29/2021 | -4.3% | -0.0% | 16.3% |
| 10/30/2020 | 1.0% | 4.9% | 28.6% |
| 7/31/2020 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wirth, Michael K | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 187.00 | 5,547 | 1,037,266 | 4,919,486 | Form |
| 2 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 8052026 | 194.26 | 100,000 | 19,426,032 | 34,587,078 | Form | |
| 3 | Hess, John B | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 194.10 | 710,665 | 137,942,701 | 70,597,649 | Form | |
| 4 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5222026 | 193.20 | 380,000 | 73,414,765 | 53,717,391 | Form | |
| 5 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 184.78 | 195,000 | 36,031,524 | 121,591,610 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wirth, Michael K | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 187.00 | 5,547 | 1,037,266 | 4,919,486 | Form |
| 2 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 8052026 | 194.26 | 100,000 | 19,426,032 | 34,587,078 | Form | |
| 3 | Hess, John B | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 194.10 | 710,665 | 137,942,701 | 70,597,649 | Form | |
| 4 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5222026 | 193.20 | 380,000 | 73,414,765 | 53,717,391 | Form | |
| 5 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 184.78 | 195,000 | 36,031,524 | 121,591,610 | Form | |
| 6 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 213.30 | 40,200 | 8,574,857 | 1,842,528 | Form |
| 7 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 192.12 | 47,200 | 9,068,064 | 1,644,163 | Form |
| 8 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 188.65 | 58,000 | 10,941,854 | 1,614,489 | Form |
| 9 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 190.60 | 17,400 | 3,316,440 | 1,606,186 | Form |
| 10 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.06 | 35,475 | 6,600,564 | 1,592,322 | Form |
| 11 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.06 | 28,400 | 5,284,075 | 1,568,105 | Form |
| 12 | Gustavson, Jeff B | President, New Energies | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.04 | 6,667 | 1,240,325 | 691,322 | Form |
| 13 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 183.83 | 1,463 | Form | ||
| 14 | Knowles, Alana K | Controller | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 183.28 | 2,408 | Form | ||
| 15 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 182.37 | 1,122 | Form | ||
| 16 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 184.40 | 11,076 | 2,042,375 | 206,893 | Form |
| 17 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 183.40 | 666 | 122,144 | 268,314 | Form |
| 18 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Booth Family Trust | Sell | 2122026 | 184.77 | 5 | Form | ||
| 19 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 176.53 | 22,200 | 3,919,050 | 117,572 | Form |
| 20 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 178.43 | 6,000 | 1,070,566 | 84,932 | Form |
| 21 | Nelson, Mark A | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 174.17 | 45,800 | 7,976,844 | 1,247,209 | Form |
| 22 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 175.01 | 32,100 | 5,617,731 | 764,081 | Form |
| 23 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 176.40 | 41,134 | 7,256,038 | 735,412 | Form |
| 24 | Knowles, Alana K | Controller | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 168.00 | 3,200 | 537,600 | 202,776 | Form |
| 25 | Gustavson, Jeff B | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 150.27 | 9,325 | 1,401,283 | 251,705 | Form |
| 26 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.16 | 275,000 | 41,293,418 | 128,091,433 | Form | |
| 27 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.75 | 275,000 | 41,456,131 | 170,052,296 | Form | |
| 28 | Knowles, Alana K | VP and Controller | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 160.00 | 3,978 | 636,480 | 188,960 | Form |
| 29 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 8262025 | 158.30 | 375,000 | 59,363,550 | 222,105,952 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 11, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $127.2 Mil | 14.7% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 9.9% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $53.0 Mil | 4.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $5.0 Mil | 1.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $25.9 Mil | 0.8% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Vantage Wealth | $18.6 Mil | 4.0% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Campbell Capital Management Inc | $7.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $127.2 Mil | 14.7% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $53.0 Mil | 4.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 9.9% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $5.0 Mil | 1.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
CVX Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Chevron is translating a major acquisition into accelerating production, guiding for 7 to 10 percent growth in 2026. Management has a strong performance record, achieving a $3 billion cost savings target 6 months early. While geopolitical risks are present, the company's operational execution and robust cash flow funding a 10.6% shareholder yield are compelling.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerProduction Volume (BOE) x Realized Price ($/BOE) The margin between realized commodity prices and the cost of supply. Profitability is maximized by owning and efficiently operating low-cost assets that are profitable even in lower price environments.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Chevron is executing on its growth strategy, driving record production and hitting synergy targets early.
- Worldwide production is guided to increase 7 to 10 percent in 2026.
- Achieved $3 billion in structural cost reductions 6 months ahead of schedule.
- U.S. upstream production hit a record of nearly 2.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2026.
- Total shareholder yield is 10.6%, fully funded by free cash flow.
- Captured $1.5 billion in Hess synergies, 50% more than targeted, 6 months early.
PRIMARY RISK
Operations in Kazakhstan and the Middle East face tangible disruption risk. Production has already been curtailed in the Partitioned Zone, and a key export pipeline from Kazakhstan has suffered drone attacks.
- The CPC pipeline, a key export route for Kazakhstan, has experienced drone attacks.
- Conflict in the Middle East has resulted in production curtailments.
- Annual earnings sensitivity is approximately $600 million for every dollar change in Brent crude.
- The stock's largest peak-to-trough decline in the last year was -20.8%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide Net Oil-Equivalent Production | barrels of oil equivalent per day for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Production growth is accelerating, hitting a new record in the U.S. and marking the second-highest quarter ever for the company globally. The growth is driven by both the successful integration of Hess assets and strong organic performance in the Permian Basin and Gulf of America. |
| Structural Cost Reductions | $3 billion in annual run-rate savings achieved as of Q2 2026. - Accelerating | Management has successfully executed its cost-cutting program, exceeding its initial timeline. The CFO noted that over 70% of the savings are from durable efficiency gains, not just temporary cuts, suggesting the improvements are sustainable. |
| U.S. Upstream Production | Nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Q2 2026) | Represents a new production record, highlighting strong performance and growth in key domestic assets like the Permian Basin and Gulf of America, which are central to the company's growth strategy. |
| U.S. Refinery Throughput | Over 1 million barrels per day (Q2 2026) | A record level of throughput, this KPI indicates high operational reliability and utilization in the Downstream segment, which is crucial for capturing refining margins and meeting market demand for fuels. |
Internal Execution vs. External Disruption
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe management's proven ability to cut costs, integrate assets, and run operations at record levels will generate enough cash flow to more than offset manageable geopolitical disruptions.
CORE TENSION
Can $3 billion in early structural cost savings and record U.S. production offset risks from documented drone attacks on the critical CPC pipeline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Despite known external risks, the company just posted record U.S. production and is on track to meet its full-year growth targets.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that no amount of operational excellence can insulate the company from a major pipeline outage or regional conflict, making the impressive execution a poor hedge against headline risk.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
third quarter 2026 | Quarterly Share Repurchase Update Watch: Company expects to repurchase between $2.5-$3.0 billion of its common stock. |
in the third quarter | CPC Pipeline Terminal Capacity Watch: The third single-point mooring (SPM) at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal is expected to be open. |
10/21/2026 | Peer Earnings Signal Weakness Watch: Peers reporting weaker-than-expected refining margins, lower production volumes, or reduced guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment for Chevron. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Marathon Petroleum Earnings Watch: Peer Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer ConocoPhillips Earnings Report Watch: Peer ConocoPhillips (COP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
second half of 2026 | Karachaganak Project Completion Watch: Kazakhstan Karachaganak Expansion Project Stage 1B development is expected to be completed. |
the year | Full-Year Capital Expenditure Watch: Company expects to finish the year at the lower end of its $18 billion to $19 billion organic capex guidance. |
No set date | Geopolitical Disruption Watch: News of new attacks, sanctions, or operational halts affecting the CPC pipeline or production assets in the Middle East. |
No set date | Commodity Price Decline Watch: A sharp, sustained drop in Brent or WTI crude oil prices below recent averages of $92/bbl and $83/bbl respectively. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-31 | Second Quarter 2026 Results Details: Chevron reported Q2 2026 earnings of $12.1 billion. Management announced it achieved its structural cost reduction target 6 months early, with $3 billion of annual run rate savings. | +0.5% $192.31 -> $193.18 |
2026-07-08 | Surfactant Technology Licensing Details: The company announced a technology licensing agreement with ZL Chemicals Ltd to commercialize Chevron-developed chemical surfactant technology for improving resource recovery in unconventional reservoirs. | +0.0% $174.01 -> $174.05 |
2026-06-22 | Microsoft Power Agreement Details: Chevron announced a 20-year agreement with Microsoft to develop Project Kilby, a co-located power facility in West Texas for a Microsoft data center. | +1.4% $173.63 -> $175.98 |
2026-06-05 | Analyst Rating Downgrade Details: A press report noted a rating downgrade from bullish to neutral, citing a 24% year-to-date rally driven by geopolitical oil premiums rather than fundamentals. | +0.5% $188.35 -> $189.24 |
2026-05-01 | First Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company reported Q1 2026 earnings of $2.2 billion. The two-day stock reaction around the May 1 earnings call was -1.0% versus 0.0% for the S&P 500. | -0.5% $191.56 -> $190.53 |
2026-04-13 | Venezuela Heavy Oil Consolidation Details: Chevron announced an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela, S. A. (PDVSA) to consolidate its focus on strategic heavy oil assets in the country. | -0.8% $186.84 -> $185.32 |
2026-02-11 | Chevron Enters Libya Details: The company entered Libya after being designated a winning bidder in the 2025 Libyan Bid Round, following a Memorandum of Understanding with the country's National Oil Corporation. | +0.1% $178.86 -> $178.99 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CVX trades at roughly 27% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.1x the market), around the 66th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
XOM - ExxonMobil
Pure-Play Supermajor ScaleExxonMobil offers greater scale, with revenue 1.6 times that of Chevron and significantly higher capital expenditures, providing exposure to the largest global energy projects.
COP - ConocoPhillips
Upstream Pure-PlayAs a pure-play exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips offers more direct leverage to upstream commodity prices without the integrated downstream refining business.
A disciplined, large-scale commodity producer leveraging a high-graded, low-cost upstream portfolio to maximize cash flow through cycles and fund significant shareholder returns.
Chevron is executing a clear strategy focused on capital discipline and operational excellence in its advantaged upstream assets, particularly the Permian, Guyana (via the Hess acquisition), and the Gulf of Mexico. This focus is designed to drive peer-leading free cash flow growth and shareholder returns. The company is also selectively investing in new energy opportunities, like providing power for data centers, by leveraging its existing assets and capabilities.
Sustained high commodity prices, successful and on-schedule execution of major projects in Guyana and the Gulf of America, continued capital efficiency gains in the Permian, and consistent dividend growth and share repurchases.
A prolonged downturn in oil and gas prices, significant operational disruptions or project delays in key areas like Kazakhstan (TCO) or Guyana, or adverse geopolitical events that impact production or key transport routes like the CPC pipeline.
Short-term commodity price volatility within a given quarter, quarterly working capital fluctuations, and minor, non-recurring operational issues that do not impact full-year production guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration of Hess's assets, particularly the high-growth, high-margin Guyana operations, which are expected to significantly boost production and free cash flow into the 2030s. Additionally, delivering on stated cost-cutting and synergy targets ahead of schedule could drive a re-rating.
Upstream
$190.6B TTM (49% of Total)What It Is
The Upstream segment explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. It sells these raw commodities to a global customer base that includes refiners, marketers, and utilities.
Who Pays & How
Refiners and other large-scale energy consumers purchase crude oil and natural gas as fundamental feedstocks for their own operations. They rely on major producers like Chevron for large, consistent volumes of supply to run their facilities.
Competition
Downstream
$310.3B TTM (79% of Total)What It Is
The Downstream segment refines crude oil into finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel; manufactures and markets lubricants and petrochemicals; and is growing its renewable fuels business. Products are sold to consumers through branded service stations (Chevron, Texaco, Caltex) and to commercial and industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and businesses purchase refined products for transportation and industrial use. They choose Chevron's brands for their quality and accessibility through its extensive marketing and retail network.
Competition
Chevron — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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