Amgen (AMGN)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $460.22 | Market Cap: $248.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Amgen (AMGN)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $460.22Market Cap: $248.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% | Key risksAMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% |
| Key risksAMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Amgen (AMGN) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amgen reported strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 and raised its full-year guidance. Total revenues for the third quarter of 2026 increased 8% year-over-year to $10.4 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $10.07 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) grew 14% to $6.45, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.79. Following these positive results, the company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance for both revenue and non-GAAP EPS, indicating confidence in continued growth.
2. Significant advancements in Amgen's late-stage pipeline boosted investor confidence. In September and October 2026, Amgen announced positive topline Phase 3 results for Dazodalibep in moderate-to-severe systemic Sjögren's Disease, indicating a potential new therapy. Additionally, a Phase 3 study for MariTide in Type 2 Diabetes was initiated and began enrolling patients in fiscal Q3 2026, while the FDA approved a reduction in monitoring time for IMDELLTRA in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in September 2026, which could broaden patient access.
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Amgen (AMGN) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amgen reported strong financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 and raised its full-year guidance. Total revenues for the third quarter of 2026 increased 8% year-over-year to $10.4 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $10.07 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) grew 14% to $6.45, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.79. Following these positive results, the company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance for both revenue and non-GAAP EPS, indicating confidence in continued growth.
2. Significant advancements in Amgen's late-stage pipeline boosted investor confidence. In September and October 2026, Amgen announced positive topline Phase 3 results for Dazodalibep in moderate-to-severe systemic Sjögren's Disease, indicating a potential new therapy. Additionally, a Phase 3 study for MariTide in Type 2 Diabetes was initiated and began enrolling patients in fiscal Q3 2026, while the FDA approved a reduction in monitoring time for IMDELLTRA in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in September 2026, which could broaden patient access.
3. The company demonstrated robust, broad-based growth across its commercial product portfolio. Amgen's fiscal Q3 2026 performance highlighted the strength of its diverse product offerings, with 17 products achieving at least double-digit sales growth. This contributed to an 8% increase in overall product sales compared to the prior year.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.2% change in AMGN stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 382.92 | 460.28 | 20.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,220 | 38,903 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.0% | 24.1% | 15.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 26.5 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 540 | 541 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 20.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | 78.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.7% change in AMGN stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 341.66 | 460.28 | 34.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 36,751 | 38,903 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.0% | 24.1% | 15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.8 | 26.5 | 11.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 538 | 541 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 34.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 74.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.5% change in AMGN stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 290.37 | 460.28 | 58.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,917 | 38,903 | 11.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.0% | 24.1% | 27.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.6 | 26.5 | 12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 538 | 541 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 58.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 23.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 71.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 96.9% change in AMGN stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 60.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 233.72 | 460.28 | 96.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,833 | 38,903 | 45.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.2% | 24.1% | -14.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 26.5 | 60.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 535 | 541 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 96.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 96.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 66.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMGN Return | 2% | 20% | 13% | -7% | 30% | 44% | 141% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -15% | 4% | 18% | 31% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMGN Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 62% | 37% | 48% | 60% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMGN Max Drawdown | -21% | -12% | -21% | -23% | -20% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -18% | -26% | -21% | -22% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABBV, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY. See AMGN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMGN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Amgen's stock fell -10.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AMGN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Amgen's stock fell -10.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Amgen (AMGN)
Amgen Inc. is a leading global biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering innovative human therapeutics. The company primarily targets serious illnesses across several key therapeutic areas, including inflammation, oncology/hematology, bone health, cardiovascular disease, nephrology, and neuroscience.
Amgen's extensive product portfolio features a range of established and novel medicines. Key products include Enbrel for autoimmune conditions like plaque psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis, Neulasta to reduce infection risk in cancer patients with low white blood cell counts, and Prolia for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The company also offers Xgeva for skeletal-related event prevention, KYPROLIS for multiple myeloma, and Repatha to reduce the risks of cardiovascular events such as heart attack and stroke.
Amgen distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale networks and direct-to-consumer channels, serving a broad customer base that includes healthcare providers such as physicians, clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies worldwide. The company also engages in strategic collaborations to advance its research and development pipeline.
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Here are a few analogies for Amgen (AMGN):
The Pfizer of the biotech world, developing a wide range of cutting-edge biologic drugs.
Like Microsoft for medicine, an R&D powerhouse creating essential therapeutic solutions across many diseases.
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- Enbrel: Treats plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis.
- Neulasta: Reduces the chance of infection due to a low white blood cell count in cancer patients.
- Prolia: Treats postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.
- Xgeva: Prevents skeletal-related events.
- Otezla: Treats adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease.
- Aranesp: Treats a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia.
- KYPROLIS: Treats patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
- Repatha: Reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization.
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Amgen (AMGN) primarily sells its products to other companies and organizations within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers.
Its major customers are **pharmaceutical wholesale distributors**, who act as intermediaries between Amgen and the entities that dispense the medications to patients. Key public pharmaceutical wholesale distributors that typically serve as major customers for pharmaceutical manufacturers include:
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
Additionally, Amgen directly serves various **healthcare providers** who administer or dispense its therapeutics. While these are generally not public companies with tradable symbols, they represent significant customer categories for Amgen. These include:
- Hospitals
- Physicians' clinics
- Dialysis centers
- Pharmacies
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Robert A. Bradway, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Robert A. Bradway has served as Amgen's Chairman since January 2013 and Chief Executive Officer since May 2012. He joined Amgen in 2006, holding positions such as President and Chief Operating Officer from May 2010 to May 2012, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from April 2007 to May 2010. Before joining Amgen, Mr. Bradway was a managing director at Morgan Stanley in London, where he led the firm's banking department and corporate finance activities in Europe starting in 2001. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in New York in 1985 as a healthcare industry investment banker. Mr. Bradway holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Amherst College and a Master of Business Administration from Harvard University.
Peter H. Griffith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Peter H. Griffith became Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in January 2020, having joined the company in 2019 as Executive Vice President, Finance. Prior to Amgen, Mr. Griffith was president of Sherwood Canyon Group, LLC, a private equity and advisory firm. He also had a distinguished career at EY (formerly Ernst & Young), where he was a partner for nearly 22 years, serving in various senior leadership roles including Global Vice Chair, Corporate Development, before retiring. Mr. Griffith earned his bachelor's degree from the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business.
David Reese, M.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
David Reese, M.D., serves as Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer.
Murdo Gordon, Executive Vice President, Global Commercial Operations
Murdo Gordon is the Executive Vice President of Global Commercial Operations at Amgen.
James Bradner, M.D., Executive Vice President, Research & Development
James Bradner, M.D., holds the position of Executive Vice President, Research & Development at Amgen.
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- Loss of Exclusivity due to Patent Expirations and Biosimilar/Generic Competition: Amgen faces significant revenue erosion as patents for several of its blockbuster drugs expire, leading to increased competition from biosimilars and generics. Key products such as Enbrel, Prolia, Xgeva, and Otezla are either already facing or are anticipated to face biosimilar competition, which could substantially impact a large portion of the company's current revenue base. For instance, Prolia/Xgeva is expected to face U.S. patent expiry in 2025–2026, and Enbrel's final U.S. patent expiration is in 2028 and 2029.
- Legal and Regulatory Risks, particularly Drug Pricing Legislation: Amgen operates in a highly regulated environment and is susceptible to changes in healthcare policies and drug pricing reforms. Evolving U.S. federal coverage and reimbursement policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), have affected and are expected to continue to affect access to, pricing of, and sales of Amgen's products. Enbrel, a product that generates considerable revenue for Amgen, has already been selected for Medicare price setting under the IRA, with an expected negative impact on its profitability beginning January 1, 2026. Additionally, product liability remains a major risk in testing and marketing biotechnology products.
- Clinical Trial Failures and Research & Development (R&D) Productivity: The success of Amgen's business relies heavily on its ability to discover, develop, and commercialize new human therapeutics. The R&D process is inherently risky, with a high potential for clinical trial failures or the inability to demonstrate sufficient efficacy or safety for new drug candidates. For example, Amgen recently halted all clinical trials for rocatinlimab due to potential malignancy risks, illustrating the inherent uncertainties in drug development. A lack of successful new product launches could negatively impact future revenue growth and the ability to offset losses from patent expirations.
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Enbrel
The global Enbrel market size was approximately USD 16.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 22.29 billion by 2034. North America is the largest market for Enbrel.
Neulasta
The Global Neulasta Market is estimated to be valued at USD 210.3 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 95.3 million by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -10.7% from 2025 to 2032. This decline is influenced by shifts in market dynamics, including intensifying biosimilar competition and price pressures. North America was the largest region in the Neulasta market in 2025.
Prolia
The Global Prolia Market is estimated to be valued at USD 4,562.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 5,703.2 million by 2032. Prolia alone accounted for between USD 4.0 and USD 4.5 billion annually by 2024 globally, with over USD 1.17 billion per quarter in U.S. sales. The broader global osteoporosis drug market was estimated at roughly USD 15-16 billion in 2024. North America is expected to lead the Prolia market.
Xgeva
The Global Xgeva Market is estimated to be valued at USD 2,501.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,140.7 million by 2032. North America is expected to lead this market.
Otezla
There is no specific standalone market size available for Otezla. However, Otezla competes within the following markets: The global psoriasis drugs market was estimated at USD 21,116.1 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 39,113.8 million by 2030. North America held the leading market position for psoriasis drugs in 2024, accounting for 38.65% of the global share. The global psoriatic arthritis market size was USD 9 billion in 2021.
Aranesp
The darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market is predicted to expand from a size of USD 5.81 billion in 2024 to USD 6.06 billion in 2025, and is projected to increase to USD 7.37 billion by 2029. North America was the largest region in the darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market in 2025.
KYPROLIS
There is no specific standalone market size available for KYPROLIS. It is a therapy for multiple myeloma, and the global multiple myeloma therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 20.87 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 30.30 billion by 2030. In 2023, the total multiple myeloma market size in the 7 major markets was approximately USD 21,300 million, with the United States contributing nearly USD 14,300 million.
Repatha
There is no specific standalone market size available for Repatha. It is a key drug in the PCSK9 inhibitors market, which was valued at USD 2.41 billion globally in 2024, estimated to reach USD 2.91 billion in 2025 and USD 13.35 billion by 2035. North America was the largest region in the Repatha market in 2025.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Amgen (AMGN) over the Next 2-3 Years:
- Growth of Key In-Market Products: Amgen anticipates continued strong performance from its established, high-growth products, including Repatha, EVENITY, and TEZSPIRE. These medicines demonstrated significant double-digit sales growth in 2025 and are expected to sustain this momentum, driven by increasing patient demand and market penetration.
- Expansion of the Rare Disease Portfolio: The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics in late 2023 significantly bolstered Amgen's rare disease offerings, with key treatments such as TEPEZZA and KRYSTEXXA. This portfolio, which exceeded $5 billion in sales in 2025, is projected to continue growing through the introduction of these therapies into international markets and new indications.
- Robust Biosimilar Portfolio: Amgen's biosimilar segment is a strong driver of revenue, having generated $3 billion in sales in 2025 with a 37% year-over-year increase. Recent launches like PAVBLU (a biosimilar to Eylea) and WEZLANA (a biosimilar for Stelara) are contributing to this growth, alongside a pipeline of biosimilar candidates for high-value products like Opdivo, Keytruda, and Ocrevus that are in Phase 3 development, positioning Amgen for further expansion in this market.
- Advancement of Late-Stage Pipeline, particularly MariTide: Amgen's pipeline, featuring numerous potential first- or best-in-class medicines, is a critical growth driver. MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a novel peptide-antibody conjugate for obesity and obesity-related conditions, is currently in multiple global Phase 3 studies. Positive results and potential launch of MariTide are anticipated to be a significant catalyst for future revenue growth.
- Innovative Oncology Products and Label Expansions: The company is focused on expanding its oncology portfolio, with recent FDA approvals such as IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab-dlle) for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in 2024. Additionally, pipeline advancements and label expansions for existing oncology assets like LUMAKRAS and xaluritamig are expected to contribute to revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Amgen did not repurchase shares under its stock repurchase program in 2025.
- In 2024, Amgen spent $200 million on share buybacks, following no cash spent on buybacks in fiscal 2023.
- As of December 31, 2025, Amgen had $6.8 billion of share repurchase authorization available. The company expects share repurchases not to exceed $500 million in 2025 and up to $3 billion in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Amgen acquired Horizon Therapeutics for $27.8 billion in December 2022.
- In 2022, Amgen acquired ChemoCentryx for $4 billion.
- Amgen made several acquisitions in 2021, including Five Prime Therapeutics for $1.9 billion in March and TeneoBio for $900 million in July.
Capital Expenditures
- Amgen's capital expenditures were $1.112 billion in 2023, $1.096 billion in 2024, and approximately $1.9 billion in 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $2.6 billion.
- These investments are primarily focused on expanding manufacturing capacities with new plants and facilities in Ohio, North Carolina, Puerto Rico, and a new science and innovation center in Thousand Oaks, California.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | Amgen | 13.3% | 26.5x | 47.9% | 84.6% | 151.6% | — |
| EXEL | Exelixis | 12.1% | 19.2x | 70.2% | 229.7% | 254.9% | +103pp |
| UTHR | United Therapeutics | 13.5% | 19.6x | 26.4% | 147.9% | 179.6% | +28pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 7.6% | 56.6% | 93.6% | CAH 498% · MCK 396% · COR 181% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.8% | 28.8% | 6.1% | HIMS 189% · RDNT 125% · DGX 100% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 13.9% | 27.4% | -1.4% | THC 280% · NHC 210% · EHC 186% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 47.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% | OSCR 95% · HQY 52% · ELV 10% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 11.0% | 17.8% | -17.6% | UFPT 355% · GKOS 286% · PLSE 127% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -12.9% | 10.6% | -37.3% | LQDA 977% · XERS 571% · KNSA 500% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.9% | 17.0% | -40.1% | LNTH 248% · HAE 66% · MMSI 29% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.1% | -18.9% | -74.5% | AXGN 255% · NTRA 214% · MEDP 181% |
| Biotechnology ← | 364 | -25.8% | -36.1% | -82.0% | ELVN 1073% · TRVI 995% · DNTH 956% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -21.4% | -50.4% | -82.8% | VEEV -3% · DOCS -51% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 208.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 304.3 |
| Rev LTM | 64,819 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,614 |
| FCF LTM | 13,266 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,504 |
| CFO LTM | 16,438 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,051 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 304.3 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.6 |
| P/EBIT | 28.4 |
| P/E | 41.4 |
| P/CFO | 20.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA210745 | OTEZLA | apremilast | tablet | 8292025 | 20.9% | 36.8% | 54.5% | 64.4% | 64.4% |
| BLA761298 | PAVBLU | aflibercept-ayyh | injectable | 8232024 | -9.7% | -6.4% | -7.7% | 41.9% | 48.7% |
| BLA761333 | BKEMV | eculizumab-aeeb | injectable | 5282024 | 9.7% | -5.3% | -4.3% | 19.2% | 64.0% |
| BLA761344 | IMDELLTRA | tarlatamab-dlle | injectable | 5162024 | 3.4% | -5.3% | -10.7% | 10.2% | 56.4% |
| BLA761285 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 96.9% |
| BLA761331 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 96.9% |
| NDA214665 | LUMAKRAS | sotorasib | tablet | 5282021 | -5.6% | -14.1% | 10.8% | -2.7% | 127.8% |
| BLA761140 | RIABNI | rituximab-arrx | injectable | 12172020 | 7.3% | 6.4% | -0.1% | 23.9% | 139.5% |
| BLA761086 | AVSOLA | infliximab-axxq | injectable | 12062019 | -9.3% | -2.1% | 0.8% | -7.6% | 143.5% |
| BLA761073 | KANJINTI | trastuzumab-anns | vial | 6132019 | 10.6% | 35.4% | 26.7% | 46.3% | 226.6% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA210745 | OTEZLA | apremilast | tablet | 8292025 | 20.9% | 36.8% | 54.5% | 64.4% | 64.4% |
| BLA761298 | PAVBLU | aflibercept-ayyh | injectable | 8232024 | -9.7% | -6.4% | -7.7% | 41.9% | 48.7% |
| BLA761333 | BKEMV | eculizumab-aeeb | injectable | 5282024 | 9.7% | -5.3% | -4.3% | 19.2% | 64.0% |
| BLA761344 | IMDELLTRA | tarlatamab-dlle | injectable | 5162024 | 3.4% | -5.3% | -10.7% | 10.2% | 56.4% |
| BLA761285 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 96.9% |
| BLA761331 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 96.9% |
| NDA214665 | LUMAKRAS | sotorasib | tablet | 5282021 | -5.6% | -14.1% | 10.8% | -2.7% | 127.8% |
| BLA761140 | RIABNI | rituximab-arrx | injectable | 12172020 | 7.3% | 6.4% | -0.1% | 23.9% | 139.5% |
| BLA761086 | AVSOLA | infliximab-axxq | injectable | 12062019 | -9.3% | -2.1% | 0.8% | -7.6% | 143.5% |
| BLA761073 | KANJINTI | trastuzumab-anns | vial | 6132019 | 10.6% | 35.4% | 26.7% | 46.3% | 226.6% |
| NDA209964 | CORLANOR | ivabradine | solution | 4222019 | 0.6% | 16.9% | 34.7% | 56.5% | 230.0% |
| BLA761062 | EVENITY | romosozumab-aqqg | injectable | 4092019 | -5.1% | 3.2% | 17.0% | 36.4% | 201.6% |
| BLA761077 | AIMOVIG | erenumab-aooe | injectable | 5172018 | 13.2% | 11.7% | 0.3% | 45.7% | 240.5% |
| BLA761028 | MVASI | bevacizumab-awwb | injectable | 9142017 | -7.0% | 1.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 220.9% |
| BLA761024 | AMJEVITA | adalimumab-atto | injectable | 9232016 | -15.0% | -3.9% | 9.2% | 24.1% | 257.5% |
| BLA125522 | REPATHA | evolocumab | injectable | 8272015 | 5.8% | -4.6% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 311.2% |
| NDA206143 | CORLANOR | ivabradine hydrochloride | tablet | 4152015 | -2.6% | -9.8% | -1.1% | 2.4% | 290.7% |
| BLA125557 | BLINCYTO | blinatumomab | injectable | 12032014 | -4.8% | -5.6% | -6.1% | -10.3% | 286.7% |
| NDA205437 | OTEZLA | apremilast | tablet | 3212014 | -1.1% | 18.4% | 41.1% | 23.3% | 436.1% |
| BLA125320 | PROLIA | denosumab | injectable | 6012010 | 0.6% | 3.8% | 17.6% | 39.8% | 1,268.9% |
| BLA125268 | NPLATE | romiplostim | injectable | 8222008 | -14.2% | -11.4% | -5.3% | -18.2% | 985.5% |
| BLA125147 | VECTIBIX | panitumumab | injectable | 9272006 | -5.1% | -22.8% | -21.6% | -15.9% | 863.2% |
Clinical Pipeline
| Drug Candidate | Indication | Phase 3 Trials | Est. Primary Completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dazodalibep (AMG 570) | Sjögren's syndrome | 3 | Oct 2026 |
| ABP 234 | Non-small cell lung cancer | 2 | Dec 2026 |
| Maridebart Cafraglutide (AMG 133) | Obesity and related cardiovascular conditions | 10 | Jan 2027 |
| ABP 692 | Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis | 1 | Apr 2027 |
| Romosozumab | Osteogenesis imperfecta | 2 | May 2027 |
| Sotorasib (AMG 510) | Non-small cell lung and colorectal cancers | 2 | Jun 2027 |
| Etelcalcetide | Secondary hyperparathyroidism in pediatric patients | 2 | Jun 2027 |
| Tarlatamab (AMG 757) | Small cell lung cancer | 5 | Jul 2027 |
| Avacopan | ANCA-associated vasculitis in pediatric patients | 1 | Jul 2027 |
| ABP 938 | Neovascular age-related macular degeneration | 1 | Jul 2027 |
| ... |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other products | 7,263 | 5,630 | 4,696 | 5,050 | 5,710 |
| Prolia | 4,414 | 4,374 | 4,048 | 3,628 | 3,248 |
| Repatha | 3,016 | 2,222 | 1,635 | 1,296 | 1,117 |
| Otezla | 2,265 | 2,126 | 2,188 | 2,288 | 2,249 |
| ENBREL | 2,226 | 3,316 | 3,697 | 4,117 | 4,465 |
| EVENITY | 2,100 | 1,563 | 1,160 | 787 | 530 |
| XGEVA | 2,084 | 2,225 | 2,112 | 2,014 | 2,018 |
| TEPEZZA | 1,903 | 1,851 | 448 | 0 | 0 |
| Other revenues | 1,603 | 1,398 | 1,280 | 1,522 | 1,682 |
| BLINCYTO | 1,559 | 1,216 | 861 | 583 | 472 |
| Nplate | 1,524 | 1,456 | 1,477 | 1,307 | 1,027 |
| TEZSPIRE | 1,478 | 972 | 567 | 170 | |
| KYPROLIS | 1,412 | 1,503 | 1,403 | 1,247 | 1,108 |
| Aranesp | 1,389 | 1,342 | 1,362 | 1,421 | 1,480 |
| KRYSTEXXA | 1,340 | 1,185 | 272 | 0 | 0 |
| Vectibix | 1,175 | 1,045 | 984 | 893 | 873 |
| Total | 36,751 | 33,424 | 28,190 | 26,323 | 25,979 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $460.28 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 249.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $421.96 | $374.67 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.1% | 22.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.9% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | 12.90 | 16.11 |
| Upside Capture | 111.76 | 73.31 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 16.2% | 20.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.46 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| Up Beta | 1.09 | 0.79 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| Down Beta | -0.90 | -0.18 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Up Capture | 54% | 70% | 89% | 55% | 62% | 30% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 35 | 68 | 134 | 401 |
| Down Capture | -107% | 1% | -24% | -41% | 18% | 72% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 57 | 116 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 59.7% | 30.1% | 1.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.2% | 16.9% | 1.33 | 71.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 23.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 17.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -22.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 9.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 21.0% | 25.0% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 15.4% | 0.36 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | -4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 35.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 10.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 14.7% | 25.4% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.2% | 16.8% | 0.60 | 67.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 38.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 7.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 3.7% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 4.6% | 6.2% | 14.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.7% | -5.0% | -4.2% |
| 2/3/2026 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.8% | 14.1% | 12.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -5.0% | -5.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.9% | -4.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 10.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.8% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -8.1% | -13.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 3.7% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 4.6% | 6.2% | 14.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.7% | -5.0% | -4.2% |
| 2/3/2026 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.8% | 14.1% | 12.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -5.0% | -5.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.9% | -4.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 10.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 1.5% | 2.0% | -9.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | -5.0% | -1.7% | -0.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | -6.4% | -8.1% | -13.0% |
| 10/31/2023 | -2.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.5% | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.2% | -3.5% | -8.9% |
| 1/31/2023 | -2.4% | -3.3% | -6.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 1.2% | 9.5% | 7.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.3% | 0.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/27/2022 | -4.3% | -5.1% | 2.5% |
| 2/7/2022 | 7.8% | 1.2% | 4.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | 1.8% | -1.2% | -5.3% |
| 8/3/2021 | -6.5% | -6.6% | -7.8% |
| 4/27/2021 | -7.2% | -3.0% | -5.8% |
| 2/2/2021 | -1.4% | -1.6% | -6.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.8% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -8.1% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/12/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/4/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Acquisition-related expenses | Reported | 5.99 | 6.06 | 6.13 | ||||
| 2026 Net gains from equity investments | Reported | -1.7 | ||||||
| 2026 Other | Reported | 0.13 | ||||||
| 2026 Total Revenues | Reported | 38.90 Bil | 39.30 Bil | 39.70 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 38.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 14.5% | 15.25% | 16.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 15.0% | 15.75% | 16.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP tax rate guidance | Reported | 14.5% | 15.25% | 16.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tax rate of known adjustments discussed above | Reported | 0.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP tax rate guidance | Reported | 15.0% | 15.75% | 16.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 18.34 | 18.81 | 19.28 | 14.4% | Raised | Guidance: 16.44 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 22.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 22.9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance | Reported | 18.34 | 18.81 | 19.28 | 14.4% | Raised | Guidance: 16.44 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance | Reported | 22.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 22.9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 2.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 38.20 Bil | 38.80 Bil | 39.40 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 37.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 14.5% | 15.25% | 16.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Rate | Reported | 15.0% | 15.75% | 16.5% | ||||
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 15.8 | 16.44 | 17.08 | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 16.36 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 22.3 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 22.4 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 2.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 37.10 Bil | 37.80 Bil | 38.50 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 37.70 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 15.62 | 16.36 | 17.1 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 16.2 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 21.7 | 22.4 | 23.1 | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 22.3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 2.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 37.00 Bil | 37.70 Bil | 38.40 Bil | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 36.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | Reported | 15.45 | 16.2 | 16.94 | 14.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 14.18 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 21.6 | 22.3 | 23 | 6.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 21 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 2.60 Bil | 15.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.25 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 500.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Derek | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 402.54 | 3,890 | 1,565,898 | 5,016,508 | Form |
| 2 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 402.16 | 2,970 | 1,194,415 | 2,951,855 | Form |
| 3 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 323.73 | 1,237 | 400,451 | 2,269,004 | Form |
| 4 | Santos, Esteban | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 379.12 | 54,792 | 20,772,595 | 29,047,209 | Form |
| 5 | Busch, Matthew C | VP, Finance & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 375.79 | 1,000 | 375,790 | 1,286,329 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Derek | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 402.54 | 3,890 | 1,565,898 | 5,016,508 | Form |
| 2 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 402.16 | 2,970 | 1,194,415 | 2,951,855 | Form |
| 3 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 323.73 | 1,237 | 400,451 | 2,269,004 | Form |
| 4 | Santos, Esteban | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 379.12 | 54,792 | 20,772,595 | 29,047,209 | Form |
| 5 | Busch, Matthew C | VP, Finance & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 375.79 | 1,000 | 375,790 | 1,286,329 | Form |
| 6 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 337.26 | 3,139 | 1,058,667 | 2,436,722 | Form |
| 7 | Gordon, Murdo | EVP, Global Commercial Ops | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 336.83 | 6,879 | 2,317,071 | 14,121,033 | Form |
| 8 | Khosla, Rachna | SVP, Business Development | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 336.24 | 890 | 299,256 | 2,381,267 | Form |
| 9 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 296.99 | 1,267 | 376,280 | 2,140,965 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iat Reinsurance Co LTD. | $32.5 Mil | 10.5% | 67 | Hold | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $16.9 Mil | 5.7% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $245.6 Mil | 5.3% | 32 | TRIM -13.0% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $16.6 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | TRIM -22.6% | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.4 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $8.7 Mil | 2.8% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $13.2 Mil | 2.1% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $15.8 Mil | 0.6% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vantage Wealth | $20.9 Mil | 4.5% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $19.9 Mil | 2.1% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.6 Mil | 1.1% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $16.6 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | TRIM -22.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $245.6 Mil | 5.3% | 32 | TRIM -13.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $245.6 Mil | 5.3% | 32 | TRIM -13.0% | 13F |
| Iat Reinsurance Co LTD. | $32.5 Mil | 10.5% | 67 | Hold | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $16.9 Mil | 5.7% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $16.6 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | TRIM -22.6% | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $15.8 Mil | 0.6% | 21 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.4 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $13.2 Mil | 2.1% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $8.7 Mil | 2.8% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
AMGN Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is based on an accelerating portfolio of new drugs, which grew 27% in the last quarter and now represents over 70% of sales. Management has raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance three times, signaling confidence that this growth can outpace the decline of older products. The primary uncertainty remains the speed of that legacy erosion.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Patent-Protected Franchise(Volume of Doses Sold) x (Net Realized Price per Dose) Successful R&D execution leading to the launch of new, first-in-class or best-in-class drugs with strong patent protection and pricing power in areas of high unmet medical need.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The new growth engine is accelerating and now comprises the vast majority of the business.
- The six key growth drivers' sales growth accelerated from Q2 to 27% YoY in Q3.
- This growth portfolio now represents over 70% of total product sales.
- Seventeen different products are now annualizing at more than $1 billion in sales.
- Full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance were raised for the third consecutive quarter.
- Operating expenses declined 1% YoY while revenue grew 8.2%, showing strong operating leverage.
PRIMARY RISK
The rapid collapse of legacy blockbusters following patent expiry could create a revenue gap too large for new products to fill, leading to a growth stall.
- Prolia sales decreased 45% year-over-year in Q3 2026 following biosimilar launches.
- Management expects 'accelerated sales erosion' for Prolia and XGEVA going forward.
- Patents for Prolia and XGEVA expired in the U.S. and Europe in 2025.
- The Inflation Reduction Act has resulted in significantly lower prices for ENBREL and Otezla.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Key Growth Drivers Aggregate Sales Growth | 27% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The aggregate sales growth for the company's designated key growth drivers has shown consistent acceleration throughout the year, indicating strengthening momentum in the products management has identified as central to its strategy. These products now represent over 70% of total product sales. |
| Repatha Sales Growth | 37% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Repatha's sales growth has been robust and stable at a high level, but the underlying demand indicators like new patient prescriptions are clearly accelerating. Management attributes this to increased urgency to treat and positive clinical data. |
| Key Growth Drivers Year-over-Year Growth | 27% (Q3 2026) | This metric indicates the performance of the core portfolio of products management has designated as central to its growth strategy, demonstrating the success of the transition away from legacy assets. |
| Number of Billion-Dollar Products (Annualized) | 17 (Q3 2026) | This shows the breadth and scale of the company's commercial portfolio, highlighting its ability to develop and market multiple blockbuster drugs simultaneously. |
| Key Growth Drivers as a % of Product Sales | Over 70% (Q3 2026) | This KPI tracks the progress of the company's strategic portfolio transition. A higher percentage indicates that newer products are successfully replacing revenue from older drugs facing patent expirations. |
Portfolio Transition: Growth Engine vs. Patent Cliff
BULL VIEW
The new portfolio's 27% growth is accelerating, broad-based across 17 blockbusters, and now represents over 70% of sales, providing more than enough momentum to drive overall growth.
CORE TENSION
Can 27% growth from the new portfolio, now over 70% of sales, offset the accelerating erosion of legacy drugs, exemplified by Prolia's 45% Q3 sales decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull case. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance after seeing the Q3 erosion, signaling confidence that the growth engine is winning.
BEAR VIEW
Prolia's 45% sales decline is just the start of an accelerating erosion for major legacy drugs that will create a significant revenue hole in upcoming quarters.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
no earlier than late 2026 or early 2027 | Adverse Tax Court Ruling Watch: The ruling from the U.S. Tax Court on the consolidated cases concerning profit allocation to Puerto Rico. |
December 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: The company will pay its declared fourth-quarter 2026 cash dividend of $2.52 per share. |
later this year | Dazodalibep Symptomatic Sjogren's Data Watch: Completion of the second Phase 3 study for dazodalibep in symptomatic Sjogren's disease is expected. |
1/26/2027 | Peer JNJ Earnings Report Watch: Peer Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/1/2027 | Accelerated Legacy Product Decline Watch: Q4 sales figures for Prolia and XGEVA to quantify the rate of erosion against growth from other products. |
2/1/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Peer MRK Earnings Report Watch: Peer Merck (MRK) is scheduled to report earnings. |
later this year | Pipeline Readout Failure Watch: A company press release announcing topline results from the Phase 3 OASIZ study in symptomatic Sjogren's disease. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-03 | Strong Q3 Earnings, Raised Guidance Details: The company reported Q3 revenue growth of 8% to $10.4 billion and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for total revenues and non-GAAP EPS. | +2.8% $465.45 -> $478.48 |
2026-09-22 | Positive Dazodalibep Phase 3 Data Details: The company announced positive topline Phase 3 results for dazodalibep in systemic Sjögren's disease, showing a clinically meaningful improvement in systemic disease activity. | +3.3% $393.16 -> $406.09 |
2026-08-27 | Positive TEZSPIRE Phase 3 Results Details: The company announced positive top-line results for TEZSPIRE in Eosinophilic Esophagitis, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements. | -1.8% $440.34 -> $432.42 |
2026-08-04 | Strong Q2 Earnings Report Details: The company reported its first $10 billion quarter, beat revenue and EPS estimates, and raised full-year guidance. The stock reacted positively by 8.0%. | +7.6% $376.67 -> $405.46 |
2026-06-07 | Positive Repatha Diabetes Data Details: Subgroup results from the VESALIUS-CV study showed Repatha reduces the risk of first major cardiovascular events by 29% in people living with high-risk diabetes. | +0.0% $343.59 -> $343.72 |
2026-05-19 | CFO Retirement and Replacement Details: The company announced the retirement of its CFO since 2020, Peter Griffith. Thomas Dittrich is returning to Amgen to take over the role. | +2.2% $322.51 -> $329.64 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMGN trades at roughly 33% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ABBV - AbbVie
Innovation-Focused PeerAbbVie demonstrates a higher operating margin (36% vs. 32.4%) and spends more on R&D in absolute terms ($10 billion vs. $7.8 billion), suggesting greater scale in funding innovation.
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
Diversified Scale PlayJohnson & Johnson offers significantly greater scale, with revenue 2.6 times that of Amgen, and a more diversified business across pharmaceuticals, medtech, and consumer health.
Amgen is a large-cap biotech navigating a major portfolio transition, betting that a slate of new growth drivers and a high-potential obesity drug (MariTide) can outrun the inevitable revenue erosion from biosimilar attacks on its legacy blockbusters.
The investment thesis hinges on Amgen's ability to execute a classic pharma pivot. Its six key growth drivers, now comprising over 70% of sales, must continue their strong double-digit expansion to offset the decline of major products like Prolia. The pipeline, particularly the differentiated obesity candidate MariTide, represents the next wave of growth and is critical for sustaining momentum into the next decade. Success is measured by the growth rate of the new portfolio consistently outpacing the decay rate of the old.
Continued double-digit growth from the six key drivers, positive Phase 3 data from MariTide or other late-stage assets like dazodalibep, and faster-than-expected uptake of new launches like IMDELLTRA.
Faster-than-expected revenue erosion for Prolia/XGEVA, disappointing clinical trial results for MariTide or other key pipeline assets, or new significant pricing pressures from regulators or payers.
Single-quarter fluctuations in inventory levels for individual drugs, minor business development deals, or early-stage pipeline updates outside of key programs.
Repricing Catalyst
Positive clinical data from the late-stage pipeline, especially the numerous ongoing Phase 3 trials for MariTide, and the upcoming Phase 3 results for dazodalibep in Sjogren's disease expected later in the year.
Amgen — Investor Video Playlist
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