Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.7%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EXEL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results indicate that information for the requested period (8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025) is available. Specifically, there are news releases and financial reports from Q3 2025 and Q2 2025, as well as analyst forecasts and historical stock data covering parts of this period. Some results even provide daily stock prices for November and early December 2025. I can now proceed to analyze the provided search results to identify key points for the stock's movement within the specified timeframe. I need to calculate the 17.6% stock movement and then find reasons for it. I will focus on the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. First, I need to get the stock prices for August 30, 2025 (or the closest date before August 31, 2025, if 8/31 is a weekend) and December 4, 2025. Looking at the search results, specifically and, I can find historical prices for late 2025. From: September 30, 2025: Close $41.30. September 2, 2025 (closest to 8/31/2025 for a starting point): Not directly available, but the data for September starts with Sep 8, 2025, which has a closing price of $37.69. This is for the day before Labor day, so it's probably around Aug 31. Let's try to get a close for Aug 29 or Aug 30 from another source or see if there's an earlier entry in. No direct data for August 2025 close. The earliest in is Sep 8, 2025. From: December 2, 2025: Close $43.44. December 1, 2025: Close $43.43. November 28, 2025: Close $44.17. November 26, 2025: Close $44.21. November 25, 2025: Close $43.13. November 24, 2025: Close $42.25. From, there is a forecast for Dec 1, 2025, at $43.43, and Dec 4, 2025, at $43.23. The actual Nasdaq historical quotes for Dec 1, 2025, is $43.43 and Dec 2, 2025, is $43.44. Let's use the close price for Dec 3, 2025, or Dec 4, 2025, if available. From, the predicted price for Dec 4, 2025 is $43.23. From, the most recent close is $43.44 on Dec 2, 2025. I will use the close on Dec 2, 2025, as "today's" price. Now, I need a close price for around August 31, 2025. From, the earliest listed close is Sep 8, 2025, at $37.69. This seems like a reasonable proxy for the end of August if direct data for Aug 31 is not available. Let's look for more precise dates. From Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership owned approximately 1.95% of Exelixis worth $231,951,000 at the end of the most recent quarter. This is not a specific date. From, Exelixis reported Q2 2025 financial results on July 28, 2025. Let's assume the question implies the stock *did* move by 17.6% within the August 31 - December 4, 2025 timeframe, and I need to identify reasons from the news. I may not be able to precisely calculate the 17.6% from the available data for the *exact* start and end dates. The instructions say "for the approximate time period". Let's use the start of September as a proxy for the end of August. From, the closing price on September 8, 2025, was $37.69. From, the closing price on December 2, 2025, was $43.44. Percentage change: (($43.44 - $37.69) / $37.69) * 100 = (5.75 / 37.69) * 100 = 15.25%. This is close to 17.6%, but not exact. The prompt asks to highlight *why* the stock moved by 17.6%. This implies that the movement already occurred. I need to find news and events that explain *a* positive movement in this range. Let's re-examine the historical data to see if I can find a start price that results in a 17.6% increase to around $43.44. If $43.44 is the end price, and it was a 17.6% increase: Start Price * (1 + 0.176) = $43.44 Start Price * 1.176 = $43.44 Start Price = $43.44 / 1.176 = $36.93. Looking at, the stock price around August/September 2025 was in the high $30s to low $40s. September 8, 2025: $37.69 September 9, 2025: $38.28 September 10, 2025: $37.70 So a starting price around $36.93 could be within the range of late August/early September 2025. Let's focus on the news and events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, that could explain a positive movement. Key events and news within this period (Aug 31, 2025 - Dec 4, 2025): 1. **Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results (November 4, 2025)**: Exelixis announced strong Q3 2025 financial results, reporting total revenues of $597.8 million and diluted EPS of $0.69, beating analyst estimates. Net product revenues from the cabozantinib franchise were $542.9 million, showing sustained growth in renal cell carcinoma and neuroendocrine tumors. The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue and net product revenue guidance. 2. **Zanzalintinib Development Program Updates**: * Positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 pivotal study in colorectal cancer were announced in June 2025 (before the period, but follow-up could be relevant). Detailed positive results from the STELLAR-303 trial evaluating zanzalintinib in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in metastatic colorectal cancer were presented at ESMO 2025 in October and published in The Lancet. Exelixis intends to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for zanzalintinib in this indication in the U.S. by the end of 2025. * Enrollment for the STELLAR-304 pivotal study in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma was completed in May 2025, with top-line results expected in the first half of 2026. 3. **Stock Repurchase Programs**: Exelixis announced an additional stock repurchase program for up to $750 million by the end of 2026. This is in addition to previous programs where the company repurchased $796.3 million of common stock as of June 30, 2025, and $99 million in Q3 2025. 4. **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: Several analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings and increased price targets for EXEL stock in October and November 2025. For instance, TD Cowen boosted its price target from $44.00 to $51.00 on November 5, 2025. Leerink Partners also raised Exelixis from "market perform" to "outperform" with a $48.00 price objective on October 21, 2025. 5. **R&D Day Announcement**: Exelixis announced its 2025 R&D Day to be webcast on December 10, 2025, to review R&D progress and outline the company's strategy for building next-generation oncology franchises. This could generate positive sentiment regarding future pipeline potential. I have 5 points now. I will ensure they are presented with the requested HTML formatting. I have checked for insider selling/buying. Dana Aftab sold shares for $2,056,277.50, and Patrick J. Haley sold shares for $1,194,070.94 in November 2025. These amounts are less than USD 5 million, so they will not be included as explanatory factors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EXEL Return14%-9%-12%50%39%30%147%
Peers Return-1%-39%-49%11%68%77%3%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXEL Win Rate42%58%50%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate48%42%35%56%46%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXEL Max Drawdown-18%-21%-18%0%-16%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-50%-63%-41%-21%-43% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACAD, AGIO, NKTR, OMER, ACSB. See EXEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven667 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven133.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2193 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven415.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven829 days1480 days

Compare to ACAD, AGIO, NKTR, OMER, ACSB


In The Past

Exelixis's stock fell -41.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -41.5% loss requires a 70.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Exelixis (EXEL)

Better Bets than Exelixis (EXEL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EXEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
EXEL_7312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312025EXELExelixisQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
19.9%19.9%-4.6%
EXEL_12312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312022EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
19.1%49.6%0.0%
EXEL_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%5.2%-18.4%
EXEL_8312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312019EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%9.0%-27.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
EXEL_7312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312025EXELExelixisQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
19.9%19.9%-4.6%
EXEL_12312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312022EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
19.1%49.6%0.0%
EXEL_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%5.2%-18.4%
EXEL_8312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312019EXELExelixisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%9.0%-27.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Exelixis

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EXELACADAGIONKTROMERACSBMedian
NameExelixis ACADIA P.Agios Ph.Nektar T.Omeros Acesis  
Mkt Price44.0125.8827.4957.1310.62-27.49
Mkt Cap11.84.41.60.80.6-1.6
Rev LTM2,2881,04745750-75
Op Inc LTM82094-476-139-138--138
FCF LTM74499-424-186-119--119
FCF 3Y Avg42870-354-202-61--61
CFO LTM791199-410-185-119--119
CFO 3Y Avg553103-343-201-61--61

Growth & Margins

EXELACADAGIONKTROMERACSBMedian
NameExelixis ACADIA P.Agios Ph.Nektar T.Omeros Acesis  
Rev Chg LTM9.9%12.7%36.3%-19.6%--11.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.8%27.8%71.7%-7.4%--19.8%
Rev Chg Q10.8%11.3%43.7%-52.4%--11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%2.8%9.6%-14.1%--2.7%
Op Mgn LTM35.8%9.0%-1,061.8%-185.7%---88.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.5%-1.1%-1,299.8%-167.0%---84.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.1%0.2%67.3%-25.4%--1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM34.6%19.0%-915.2%-246.8%---113.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.5%8.7%-1,040.8%-237.5%---114.4%
FCF/Rev LTM32.5%9.5%-946.8%-248.3%---119.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.8%5.5%-1,077.8%-238.7%---116.6%

Valuation

EXELACADAGIONKTROMERACSBMedian
NameExelixis ACADIA P.Agios Ph.Nektar T.Omeros Acesis  
Mkt Cap11.84.41.60.80.6-1.6
P/S4.83.452.14.9--4.9
P/EBIT13.538.2-4.9-4.1-1.4--1.4
P/E16.413.8-5.8-3.0-1.4--1.4
P/CFO14.018.1-5.7-2.0-1.5--1.5
Total Yield6.1%7.2%-17.2%-33.6%-69.7%--17.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%2.7%-17.8%-114.6%-35.8%--17.8%
D/E0.00.00.00.31.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.20.9--0.2

Returns

EXELACADAGIONKTROMERACSBMedian
NameExelixis ACADIA P.Agios Ph.Nektar T.Omeros Acesis  
1M Rtn15.6%15.7%-31.5%-4.7%48.1%-15.6%
3M Rtn19.1%0.6%-32.3%100.1%154.1%-19.1%
6M Rtn4.2%18.9%-19.2%410.3%218.0%-18.9%
12M Rtn24.8%58.8%-53.3%256.0%-4.0%-24.8%
3Y Rtn153.1%64.2%-12.8%24.9%418.0%-64.2%
1M Excs Rtn15.7%15.7%-31.5%-4.6%48.1%-15.7%
3M Excs Rtn12.4%-3.9%-29.3%53.4%148.7%-12.4%
6M Excs Rtn-10.5%4.2%-33.9%395.6%203.2%-4.2%
12M Excs Rtn7.2%45.0%-67.3%220.5%-20.0%-7.2%
3Y Excs Rtn89.3%2.4%-77.1%-49.9%314.4%-2.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
CABOMETYX1,6151,3761,054719733
License revenues179    
Collaboration services revenues23210358246208
COMETRIQ1425232327
Total1,8301,6111,435988968


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,145,618
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume3,141,897
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.41
Basic Shares Quantity268,421,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025728202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021