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Exelixis (EXEL)

Market Price (2/12/2026): $42.77 | Market Cap: $11.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Exelixis (EXEL)

Market Price (2/12/2026): $42.77
Market Cap: $11.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 7.4%		 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.84, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%		 Key risks
EXEL key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on the flagship product CABOMETYX amid intense market competition and [2] the critical need for its key pipeline asset, Show more.
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%		  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%		  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%		  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.		  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 7.4%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.84, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
6 Key risks
EXEL key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on the flagship product CABOMETYX amid intense market competition and [2] the critical need for its key pipeline asset, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Exelixis (EXEL) stock has gained about 10% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Exelixis reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. The company posted $0.78 earnings per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.68, and achieved revenues of $597.76 million, outperforming the $590.04 million consensus. This strong performance and subsequent increase in Zacks Research's FY2025 EPS estimates indicated a robust financial standing.

2. The company announced a new $750 million stock repurchase program in October 2025, authorized by its Board of Directors to be executed before December 31, 2026. This substantial program, the fifth since March 2023, demonstrates management's confidence in the company's valuation and commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which can positively impact stock price by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.0% change in EXEL stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)103120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)38.6742.9411.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2302,3204.0%
Net Income Margin (%)27.0%33.7%24.9%
P/E Multiple17.514.6-16.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2732662.3%
Cumulative Contribution11.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EXEL11.0% 
Market (SPY)1.5%29.8%
Sector (XLV)8.3%52.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 18.6% change in EXEL stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)36.2242.9418.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2302,3204.0%
Net Income Margin (%)27.0%33.7%24.9%
P/E Multiple16.414.6-10.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2732662.3%
Cumulative Contribution18.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EXEL18.6% 
Market (SPY)9.8%16.2%
Sector (XLV)20.3%30.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 29.5% change in EXEL stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)33.1542.9429.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0822,32011.5%
Net Income Margin (%)22.4%33.7%50.4%
P/E Multiple20.314.6-27.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2862667.2%
Cumulative Contribution29.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EXEL29.5% 
Market (SPY)16.0%26.5%
Sector (XLV)7.8%27.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 143.7% change in EXEL stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120232112026Change
Stock Price ($)17.6242.94143.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,6382,32041.6%
Net Income Margin (%)18.8%33.7%79.6%
P/E Multiple18.514.6-20.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)32226620.9%
Cumulative Contribution143.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EXEL143.7% 
Market (SPY)76.6%18.5%
Sector (XLV)22.6%24.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
EXEL Return-9%-12%50%39%32%-2%114%
Peers Return21%20%-11%4%15%14%76%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXEL Win Rate58%50%58%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%55%37%50%53%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXEL Max Drawdown-21%-18%0%-16%-3%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-11%-23%-14%-14%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BMY, PFE, MRK, AMGN, GILD. See EXEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven667 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven133.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,193 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven415.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven829 days1,480 days

Compare to BMY, PFE, MRK, AMGN, GILD

In The Past

Exelixis's stock fell -41.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -41.5% loss requires a 70.9% gain to breakeven.

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About Exelixis (EXEL)

Exelixis, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines to treat cancers in the United States. The company's products include CABOMETYX tablets for the treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who received prior anti-angiogenic therapy; and COMETRIQ capsules for the treatment of patients with progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. Its CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ are derived from cabozantinib, an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases, including MET, AXL, RET, and VEGF receptors. The company also offers COTELLIC, an inhibitor of MEK as a combination regimen to treat advanced melanoma; and MINNEBRO, an oral non-steroidal selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor for the treatment of hypertension in Japan. In addition, it is developing XL092, an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor that targets VEGF receptors, MET, AXL, MER, and other kinases implicated in growth and spread of cancer; XB002, an antibody-drug conjugate composed of human mAb against tissue factor (TF) for the treatment of advanced solid tumors; XL102, an orally bioavailable cyclin-dependent kinase 7 (CDK7) inhibitor for the treatment of advanced or metastatic solid tumors; and XB002 for the treatment of non-hodgkin's lymphoma. Exelixis, Inc. has research collaborations and license agreements with Ipsen Pharma SAS; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd.; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; Redwood Bioscience, Inc.; R.P. Scherer Technologies, LLC; Catalent Pharma Solutions, Inc.; NBE Therapeutics AG; Aurigene Discovery Technologies Limited; Iconic Therapeutics, Inc.; Invenra, Inc.; StemSynergy Therapeutics, Inc.; Genentech, Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited. The company was formerly known as Exelixis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Exelixis, Inc. in February 2000. Exelixis, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.

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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Exelixis:

  • Like a specialized Amgen or Gilead Sciences that solely develops and sells cancer drugs.
  • Imagine a smaller Bristol Myers Squibb or Merck, but with its entire focus on oncology drug development.

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  • Cabometyx (cabozantinib): A kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and differentiated thyroid cancer.
  • Cometriq (cabozantinib): A kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer.

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Exelixis (EXEL) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers and partners include:

  • Ipsen Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (OTC: IPSEY) - Ipsen holds exclusive commercialization rights for cabozantinib (Exelixis's primary drug, CABOMETYX) outside the United States and Japan. This partnership generates significant royalty and milestone revenue for Exelixis.
  • Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (NYSE: TAK) - Takeda holds exclusive commercialization rights for cabozantinib in Japan, also contributing revenue to Exelixis through royalties and milestones.
  • In the United States, Exelixis commercializes its products directly but distributes them primarily through major pharmaceutical wholesalers. These wholesalers serve as Exelixis's direct customers for product sales. The largest distributors in the U.S. market, through whom Exelixis's products reach pharmacies and hospitals, include:
    • McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK)
    • AmerisourceBergen Corporation (NYSE: ABC)
    • Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE: CAH)

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  • Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (TYO: 2802)
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
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Michael M. Morrissey, Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer

Dr. Morrissey has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelixis since July 2010, having joined the company in February 2000. Prior to his CEO role, he held various positions of increasing responsibility at Exelixis, including President of Research and Development. Before joining Exelixis, he served as Vice President, Discovery Research at Berlex Biosciences from 1991 to 2000 and was a Senior Scientist at CIBA-Geigy Corporation. He also serves on the board of XWPharma Ltd. and was appointed Chairman of the Board of Vera Therapeutics in April 2022.

Christopher J. Senner Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Senner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exelixis since July 2015. Before joining Exelixis, he served as Vice President, Corporate Finance at Gilead Sciences, Inc. for five years. Earlier in his career, he spent 18 years at Wyeth, a pharmaceutical company acquired by Pfizer Inc. in 2009, where he held various financial roles, including Chief Financial Officer of Wyeth's U.S. pharmaceuticals business and the BioPharma business unit. He also serves on the Board of Directors for Quince Therapeutics.

Jeffrey J. Hessekiel Executive Vice President and General Counsel

Mr. Hessekiel has served as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Exelixis since February 2014. Prior to Exelixis, he was Senior Counsel at Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP, advising life sciences companies. From 2002 to 2012, he held key legal and compliance roles at Gilead Sciences, Inc., ultimately becoming Chief Compliance & Quality Officer. He also practiced corporate law at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati and Heller Ehrman LLP.

Dana T. Aftab, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Discovery & Translational Research & Chief Scientific Officer

Dr. Aftab holds the title of Executive Vice President, Discovery & Translational Research & Chief Scientific Officer at Exelixis.

P.J. Haley Executive Vice President, Commercial

Mr. Haley serves as the Executive Vice President, Commercial for Exelixis.

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Exelixis (EXEL) faces several key risks that could impact its business, primarily revolving around product success, market competition, and regulatory hurdles.

Key Risks to Exelixis' Business:

  1. Dependence on Key Products and Clinical Trial Success: Exelixis' financial stability and future growth are heavily reliant on the continued success of its flagship product, CABOMETYX (cabozantinib), and the successful development and commercialization of its pipeline assets, particularly zanzalintinib. Challenges to the efficacy, safety, or marketability of cabozantinib, or failures in clinical trials for new product candidates, could significantly impact the company's financial performance. The company has recently restructured to focus resources on its clinical and near-clinical pipeline, emphasizing the importance of these assets.
  2. Intense Competition and Market Pressures: The oncology market, where Exelixis primarily operates, is highly competitive. Exelixis faces significant competition in the treatment areas for its key products, such as renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This competition includes larger pharmaceutical companies with broader portfolios and the potential for generic versions of Exelixis' marketed products, which could lead to market share loss and pricing pressures.
  3. Regulatory Challenges and Approval Uncertainty: As a pharmaceutical company, Exelixis operates within a heavily regulated industry. The regulatory approval processes by authorities such as the FDA are lengthy, complex, and uncertain. Changes in healthcare laws, policies, or unforeseen delays in obtaining regulatory approvals for new indications or product candidates, including zanzalintinib, could materially affect the company's ability to commercialize its products and impact its financial condition.

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Exelixis's main products and their addressable markets are as follows:

  • Cabometyx (cabozantinib): This product is indicated for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and previously treated advanced neuroendocrine tumors (NET). Exelixis projects that U.S. net product revenues for the cabozantinib franchise, which primarily includes Cabometyx, could reach $3 billion by 2030. In 2024, the global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues generated by Exelixis and its partners exceeded $2.5 billion.
  • Cometriq (cabozantinib): Cometriq is indicated for the treatment of patients with progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). The global cabozantinib (Cometriq) market is projected to reach $8,432.8 million by 2035, growing from $2,996.8 million in 2025. The United States thyroid cancer drugs market, which includes Cometriq, was estimated at $129.51 million in 2022 and is projected to reach $207.72 million by 2027.
  • Zanzalintinib (investigational): This is an investigational oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor in Exelixis's pipeline. Exelixis estimates that upon approval, zanzalintinib could generate approximately $5 billion in U.S. revenues by 2033 across its various indications, primarily in genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, with an important contribution from head and neck cancer treatment.

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Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives, focusing on its established product, CABOMETYX, and the anticipated launch of new therapies, alongside strategic market expansion.

  1. Continued Growth and Label Expansion of CABOMETYX (cabozantinib): CABOMETYX remains a strong revenue generator for Exelixis. The company anticipates continued robust demand and market leadership for cabozantinib in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Furthermore, the recent U.S. regulatory approval and launch of CABOMETYX in advanced neuroendocrine tumors (NET) in late March 2025 is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with early reception being positive. Exelixis also implemented a wholesale acquisition cost increase for CABOMETYX effective January 1, 2025, which will positively impact net product revenues. Management is focused on further label expansion for the drug.
  2. Successful Launch and Commercialization of Zanzalintinib: Zanzalintinib is a promising oncology asset in Exelixis's pipeline, with several pivotal trials underway. The company plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for zanzalintinib by year-end 2025. Positive results from trials, such as STELLAR-303 in colorectal cancer (CRC) and STELLAR-304 in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma, are anticipated and could lead to significant new product launches and market expansion in high unmet need areas.
  3. Expansion of Sales Capacity and Market Penetration: Exelixis is strategically investing in expanding its commercial capabilities to maximize the reach of its products. This includes the build-out of a gastrointestinal (GI) sales team in Q4 2025 to accelerate growth, particularly in anticipation of zanzalintinib's potential expansion in GI-related indications. This increased sales capacity aims to grow the customer base and market share for both existing and new products.
  4. Advancement of Early-Stage Pipeline Assets: Beyond CABOMETYX and zanzalintinib, Exelixis has a pipeline of other oncology candidates moving through development. The company is advancing several programs, with plans to initiate clinical development for three biotherapeutics programs in 2025 (XB628 PD-L1-NKG2A bispecific antibody, XB064 ILT-2 monoclonal antibody, and XB371 TF-topoisomerase I inhibitor ADC), along with profiling other candidates like XB010 and XL495. Successful progression of these assets into later-stage development and eventual commercialization could provide additional revenue streams in the longer term.

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Share Repurchases

  • Exelixis completed a $550 million share repurchase program in 2023, acquiring 26.2 million shares, representing 8% of outstanding shares.
  • The company authorized a new $450 million share repurchase program for 2024 and two additional $500 million programs for 2025 (one in August 2024, one in February 2025).
  • As of September 30, 2025, Exelixis had repurchased $895.3 million of common stock under the August 2024 and February 2025 programs, and overall, has returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through repurchases since March 2023.
  • A new $750 million stock repurchase program was authorized in October 2025, to be completed by the end of 2026.

Share Issuance

  • No significant share issuances were identified during the last 3-5 years.

Inbound Investments

  • No large inbound investments by strategic partners or private equity firms were identified within the specified timeframe, beyond general institutional investor holdings.

Outbound Investments

  • In May 2021, Exelixis acquired GamaMabs Pharma's AMHR2 antibody technology for an upfront payment of $5 million, with potential for additional milestone payments.
  • In November 2022, Exelixis invested $100 million in two collaboration deals to expand its cancer pipeline, including an upfront payment of $60 million for an exclusive option to Cybrexa's CBX-12 and $40 million for an option for global rights to Sairopa's ADU-1805.
  • In September 2020, Exelixis made an upfront payment of $25 million to NBE-Therapeutics for an exclusive option to nominate target programs on NBE's antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform.

Capital Expenditures

  • Exelixis's capital expenditures were $138.5 million in 2022, $40.47 million in 2023, and are estimated at $28.44 million for 2024 and $26.07 million for 2025.
  • R&D spending is capped at approximately $1 billion annually, focusing on profitability and free cash flow generation, with resources concentrated on clinical-stage and IND-enabling activities following a corporate restructuring in Q1 2024.
  • An impairment of long-lived assets totaling $51.7 million was recorded in the quarter ended September 30, 2024, related to certain leased facilities as part of a corporate reorganization plan.

Better Bets vs. Exelixis (EXEL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1EXEL Stock Falls -9% With A 7-day Losing Spree On BofA Downgrade01/06/2026
2Exelixis Earnings Notes12/28/2026
3EXEL Stock Surges 14% With A 7-day Winning Spree On Analyst Buy Ratings12/24/2025
4Can Exelixis Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?10/17/2025
5Exelixis vs Halozyme Therapeutics: Which Is A Better Investment?08/18/2025
6Better Bet Than EXEL Stock: Pay Less Than Exelixis To Get More From CALM, HHH 08/12/2025
7Better Bet Than EXEL Stock: Pay Less Than Exelixis To Get More From CPRX, PTCT 08/12/2025
8ARTICLES 
9How Will Exelixis Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?01/09/2026
10Exelixis Stock Rockets 14% With 7-Day Winning Streak12/24/2025
11Better Bet Than AbbVie Stock: Pay Less To Get More From EXEL, UTHR07/26/2025
12Better Bet Than Amgen Stock: Pay Less To Get More From BMRN, EXEL07/19/2025
13What’s Happening With Exelixis Stock?09/08/2021

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

EXELBMYPFEMRKAMGNGILDMedian
NameExelixis Bristol-.Pfizer Merck Amgen Gilead S. 
Mkt Price42.9459.9327.73119.31366.58155.8089.62
Mkt Cap11.4122.0157.6297.7197.2193.7175.7
Rev LTM2,32048,03462,78664,23535,97129,08642,002
Op Inc LTM89311,42015,41722,3918,67111,15111,286
FCF LTM84415,30210,37613,04911,5399,16210,958
FCF 3Y Avg54913,5988,92713,6859,0678,8158,997
CFO LTM88416,62113,07717,06513,1269,66713,102
CFO 3Y Avg63914,84612,12717,50610,3229,36411,224

Growth & Margins

EXELBMYPFEMRKAMGNGILDMedian
NameExelixis Bristol-.Pfizer Merck Amgen Gilead S. 
Rev Chg LTM7.0%1.3%3.9%1.7%10.6%2.8%3.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.0%1.0%-13.2%2.9%11.2%2.3%2.6%
Rev Chg Q5.6%2.8%-5.9%3.7%12.4%3.0%3.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%0.7%-1.6%1.0%3.0%0.8%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM38.5%23.8%24.6%34.9%24.1%38.3%29.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.5%19.0%19.4%23.7%25.4%39.2%24.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.6%2.9%-1.4%3.7%0.6%0.9%1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM38.1%34.6%20.8%26.6%36.5%33.2%33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.5%31.7%18.9%28.2%32.7%33.1%30.6%
FCF/Rev LTM36.4%31.9%16.5%20.3%32.1%31.5%31.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg25.0%29.0%13.9%22.0%28.8%31.2%26.9%

Valuation

EXELBMYPFEMRKAMGNGILDMedian
NameExelixis Bristol-.Pfizer Merck Amgen Gilead S. 
Mkt Cap11.4122.0157.6297.7197.2193.7175.7
P/S4.92.52.54.65.56.74.8
P/EBIT12.812.213.312.917.817.813.1
P/E14.620.216.015.628.223.918.1
P/CFO12.97.312.117.415.020.014.0
Total Yield6.8%9.0%12.4%9.1%6.1%6.2%7.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%4.1%6.2%2.7%2.6%2.1%2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.4%12.3%5.9%5.2%5.7%7.3%5.8%
D/E0.00.40.40.10.30.10.2
Net D/E-0.10.30.30.10.20.10.2

Returns

EXELBMYPFEMRKAMGNGILDMedian
NameExelixis Bristol-.Pfizer Merck Amgen Gilead S. 
1M Rtn-2.5%7.5%11.6%9.3%12.6%27.1%10.4%
3M Rtn-1.5%23.5%9.0%31.6%9.8%27.1%16.7%
6M Rtn11.6%28.5%14.0%46.9%28.6%31.4%28.6%
12M Rtn30.9%12.5%16.5%43.0%27.6%66.6%29.2%
3Y Rtn144.7%-4.8%-24.3%20.4%66.4%99.7%43.4%
1M Excs Rtn-2.0%8.0%12.1%9.8%13.1%27.6%10.9%
3M Excs Rtn2.1%26.7%14.0%37.1%12.5%31.1%20.4%
6M Excs Rtn5.5%24.4%8.7%43.6%22.9%23.9%23.4%
12M Excs Rtn13.8%-1.0%0.5%28.9%14.0%53.3%13.9%
3Y Excs Rtn79.8%-76.7%-92.9%-43.2%-3.4%31.6%-23.3%

Comparison Analyses

FDA Approved Drugs Data

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Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #		Brand
Name		Generic
Name		Dosage
Form		FDA
Approval		3M
Rtn		6M
Rtn		1Y
Rtn		2Y
Rtn		Total
Rtn
NDA208692  CABOMETYXcabozantinib s-malatetablet425201686.9%142.3%373.8%347.0%821.5%
NDA203756  COMETRIQcabozantinib s-malatecapsule11292012-13.0%-8.0%11.3%-68.3%719.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
CABOMETYX1,7981,6151,3761,054719
License revenues349179   
COMETRIQ1114252323
Collaboration services revenues1023210358246
Total2,1691,8301,6111,435988


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$42.94 
Market Cap ($ Bil)11.5 
First Trading Date04/17/2000 
Distance from 52W High-7.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$43.59$41.32
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-1.5%3.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility32.9%43.8%
Downside Capture147.28105.45
Upside Capture128.46117.70
Correlation (SPY)31.1%26.4%
EXEL Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.100.690.720.490.580.42
Up Beta1.621.660.61-0.030.350.40
Down Beta-1.02-0.98-0.640.110.250.24
Up Capture-3%115%164%81%118%33%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days8193061124389
Down Capture152%193%125%82%102%67%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days12223164126354

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with EXEL
EXEL28.7%43.8%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLV)8.3%17.3%0.3027.8%
Equity (SPY)15.5%19.3%0.6226.4%
Gold (GLD)75.7%24.9%2.23-12.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.8%16.6%0.34-15.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.0%16.6%0.1818.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.3%44.7%-0.644.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with EXEL
EXEL13.5%37.0%0.44-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.9%14.5%0.3628.7%
Equity (SPY)13.9%17.0%0.6528.4%
Gold (GLD)22.9%16.9%1.100.5%
Commodities (DBC)11.4%18.9%0.493.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%18.8%0.1826.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.3%57.9%0.4510.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with EXEL
EXEL25.6%45.5%0.67-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.8%16.5%0.5437.9%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7533.9%
Gold (GLD)15.7%15.5%0.85-1.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%17.6%0.3910.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.1%20.7%0.2623.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.7%66.7%1.088.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 11520268.2%
Average Daily Volume2.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity266.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.5%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20256.5%13.4%17.0%
7/28/2025-16.8%-17.1%-13.6%
5/13/202520.8%20.1%13.1%
1/13/20251.0%3.2%-7.1%
10/29/202412.9%21.0%25.1%
8/6/202413.1%13.9%9.0%
4/30/2024-6.5%-5.6%-11.4%
2/6/2024-7.6%-7.3%1.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141212
# Negative91111
Median Positive3.6%7.9%11.1%
Median Negative-6.5%-5.6%-10.7%
Max Positive20.8%21.0%25.1%
Max Negative-16.8%-17.1%-24.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202507/28/202510-Q
03/31/202505/13/202510-Q
12/31/202402/11/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/06/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Johnson, David EdwardSee footnoteBuy1126202543.1227,5321,187,23566,979,764Form
2Haley, Patrick JEVP, CommercialDirectSell1124202542.1110,000421,10016,931,252Form
3Haley, Patrick JEVP, CommercialspouseSell1124202541.9323,539  Form
4Haley, Patrick JEVP, Commercial401(k)Sell1124202541.7710,648  Form
5Haley, Patrick JEVP, CommercialDirectSell1124202542.5828,0431,194,07115,926,155Form

EXEL Trade Sentinel

Core Investment Debate

Peak Cabozantinib vs. Pipeline Promise

BULL VIEW

Zanzalintinib's potential in colorectal cancer will successfully launch, re-accelerating growth and diversifying revenue away from the maturing Cabozantinib franchise, justifying a higher multiple.

CORE TENSION

Bears see a maturing, single-product story with decelerating growth. Bulls believe the pipeline, led by zanzalintinib, will create a new, diversified growth engine before the primary drug falters.

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

FY 2026 guidance midpoint implies ~11.8% YoY growth, a significant deceleration from the preliminary ~17.3% growth in FY 2025, confirming the slowing momentum of the core franchise.

BEAR VIEW

Cabozantinib's growth is slowing faster than expected. Zanzalintinib faces a competitive market and a long regulatory timeline, creating an air pocket in growth and earnings.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
February 10, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Commentary
Watch: Commentary on Q1 2026 Cabometyx demand trends and any signs of further competitive pressure or market share erosion.
May 29 - June 2, 2026
ASCO 2026 Abstract Releases & Presentations
Watch: Pivotal data for zanzalintinib combinations or earlier-stage assets (XL309, XB010). Focus on Overall Survival (OS) and safety profile versus competing trial data.
Mid-2026
Top-line Results for STELLAR-304 Trial
Watch: Progression-Free Survival (PFS) and Objective Response Rate (ORR) for zanzalintinib in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma (nccRCC). [26]
Anytime
Unexpected Patent Litigation Update
Watch: Filings of new Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs) or unfavorable rulings in patent disputes that could accelerate the 2030 loss of exclusivity.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-05-13
Q1 2025 Earnings Beat & Guidance Raise
Details: Exelixis reported strong Q1 results, beating analyst estimates and increasing its full-year 2025 revenue guidance by $100 million due to strong Cabometyx demand. [23]
Surged +20.8%
$36.95 -> $44.65
2025-07-28
Q2 2025 Earnings Report
Details: Exelixis reported Q2 2025 financial results. Total revenues declined year-over-year due to the absence of a large milestone payment from a partner in the prior year. [8, 14]
Plummeted -16.8%
$44.39 -> $36.94
2025-10-19
ESMO 2025 STELLAR-303 Data Presentation
Details: Detailed results for the zanzalintinib pivotal trial were presented at the ESMO Congress, with the data simultaneously published in The Lancet. [5]
Plummeted -12.0%
$39.25 -> $34.54
2025-11-04
Q3 2025 Earnings Beat & Guidance Raise
Details: Exelixis reported Q3 EPS of $0.78, beating estimates by $0.10, and revenue of $597.8M, beating consensus. The company also raised FY2025 guidance. [2, 5]
Surged +6.5%
$37.90 -> $40.37
2026-01-11
Preliminary FY2025 Results & FY2026 Guidance
Details: Exelixis announced preliminary 2025 results and provided 2026 guidance that signaled decelerating growth for the Cabozantinib franchise. [9]
Flat (0.05%)
$44.04 -> $44.06
2026-02-02
FDA Accepts Zanzalintinib NDA
Details: The FDA accepted the New Drug Application for zanzalintinib for metastatic colorectal cancer, a key step in advancing the pipeline. [24, 32]
Rose significantly by 3.5%
$41.36 -> $42.81
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.4x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating growth and low visibility on the pipeline's contribution, creates significant risk.

Diversification Alternatives
BGNE
INDUSTRY

Unlike EXEL's single-franchise dependency, BeiGene has two rapidly accelerating, self-developed commercial drugs (BRUKINSA and tislelizumab) driving strong, diversified revenue growth. [38]

Core Thesis: A global oncology powerhouse with a broad, innovative pipeline and rapidly growing sales from multiple products, offering a clearer and more diversified growth trajectory than EXEL.
MRTX
INDUSTRY

Mirati offers a more event-driven, special situation profile following its acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), focusing on the commercial execution of its novel KRAS inhibitor, Krazati. [18]

Core Thesis: An investment in a newly launched, targeted oncology asset (Krazati) backed by the commercial and R&D powerhouse of Bristol Myers, de-risking the single-asset concerns EXEL faces. [10, 20]

Industry Resources

External Quote Links


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