Exelixis (EXEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.39 | Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Exelixis (EXEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.39Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate that information for the requested period (8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025) is available. Specifically, there are news releases and financial reports from Q3 2025 and Q2 2025, as well as analyst forecasts and historical stock data covering parts of this period. Some results even provide daily stock prices for November and early December 2025. I can now proceed to analyze the provided search results to identify key points for the stock's movement within the specified timeframe. I need to calculate the 17.6% stock movement and then find reasons for it. I will focus on the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. First, I need to get the stock prices for August 30, 2025 (or the closest date before August 31, 2025, if 8/31 is a weekend) and December 4, 2025. Looking at the search results, specifically and, I can find historical prices for late 2025. From: September 30, 2025: Close $41.30. September 2, 2025 (closest to 8/31/2025 for a starting point): Not directly available, but the data for September starts with Sep 8, 2025, which has a closing price of $37.69. This is for the day before Labor day, so it's probably around Aug 31. Let's try to get a close for Aug 29 or Aug 30 from another source or see if there's an earlier entry in. No direct data for August 2025 close. The earliest in is Sep 8, 2025. From: December 2, 2025: Close $43.44. December 1, 2025: Close $43.43. November 28, 2025: Close $44.17. November 26, 2025: Close $44.21. November 25, 2025: Close $43.13. November 24, 2025: Close $42.25. From, there is a forecast for Dec 1, 2025, at $43.43, and Dec 4, 2025, at $43.23. The actual Nasdaq historical quotes for Dec 1, 2025, is $43.43 and Dec 2, 2025, is $43.44. Let's use the close price for Dec 3, 2025, or Dec 4, 2025, if available. From, the predicted price for Dec 4, 2025 is $43.23. From, the most recent close is $43.44 on Dec 2, 2025. I will use the close on Dec 2, 2025, as "today's" price. Now, I need a close price for around August 31, 2025. From, the earliest listed close is Sep 8, 2025, at $37.69. This seems like a reasonable proxy for the end of August if direct data for Aug 31 is not available. Let's look for more precise dates. From Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership owned approximately 1.95% of Exelixis worth $231,951,000 at the end of the most recent quarter. This is not a specific date. From, Exelixis reported Q2 2025 financial results on July 28, 2025. Let's assume the question implies the stock *did* move by 17.6% within the August 31 - December 4, 2025 timeframe, and I need to identify reasons from the news. I may not be able to precisely calculate the 17.6% from the available data for the *exact* start and end dates. The instructions say "for the approximate time period". Let's use the start of September as a proxy for the end of August. From, the closing price on September 8, 2025, was $37.69. From, the closing price on December 2, 2025, was $43.44. Percentage change: (($43.44 - $37.69) / $37.69) * 100 = (5.75 / 37.69) * 100 = 15.25%. This is close to 17.6%, but not exact. The prompt asks to highlight *why* the stock moved by 17.6%. This implies that the movement already occurred. I need to find news and events that explain *a* positive movement in this range. Let's re-examine the historical data to see if I can find a start price that results in a 17.6% increase to around $43.44. If $43.44 is the end price, and it was a 17.6% increase: Start Price * (1 + 0.176) = $43.44 Start Price * 1.176 = $43.44 Start Price = $43.44 / 1.176 = $36.93. Looking at, the stock price around August/September 2025 was in the high $30s to low $40s. September 8, 2025: $37.69 September 9, 2025: $38.28 September 10, 2025: $37.70 So a starting price around $36.93 could be within the range of late August/early September 2025. Let's focus on the news and events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, that could explain a positive movement. Key events and news within this period (Aug 31, 2025 - Dec 4, 2025): 1. **Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results (November 4, 2025)**: Exelixis announced strong Q3 2025 financial results, reporting total revenues of $597.8 million and diluted EPS of $0.69, beating analyst estimates. Net product revenues from the cabozantinib franchise were $542.9 million, showing sustained growth in renal cell carcinoma and neuroendocrine tumors. The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue and net product revenue guidance. 2. **Zanzalintinib Development Program Updates**: * Positive topline results from the STELLAR-303 pivotal study in colorectal cancer were announced in June 2025 (before the period, but follow-up could be relevant). Detailed positive results from the STELLAR-303 trial evaluating zanzalintinib in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in metastatic colorectal cancer were presented at ESMO 2025 in October and published in The Lancet. Exelixis intends to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for zanzalintinib in this indication in the U.S. by the end of 2025. * Enrollment for the STELLAR-304 pivotal study in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma was completed in May 2025, with top-line results expected in the first half of 2026. 3. **Stock Repurchase Programs**: Exelixis announced an additional stock repurchase program for up to $750 million by the end of 2026. This is in addition to previous programs where the company repurchased $796.3 million of common stock as of June 30, 2025, and $99 million in Q3 2025. 4. **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: Several analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings and increased price targets for EXEL stock in October and November 2025. For instance, TD Cowen boosted its price target from $44.00 to $51.00 on November 5, 2025. Leerink Partners also raised Exelixis from "market perform" to "outperform" with a $48.00 price objective on October 21, 2025. 5. **R&D Day Announcement**: Exelixis announced its 2025 R&D Day to be webcast on December 10, 2025, to review R&D progress and outline the company's strategy for building next-generation oncology franchises. This could generate positive sentiment regarding future pipeline potential. I have 5 points now. I will ensure they are presented with the requested HTML formatting. I have checked for insider selling/buying. Dana Aftab sold shares for $2,056,277.50, and Patrick J. Haley sold shares for $1,194,070.94 in November 2025. These amounts are less than USD 5 million, so they will not be included as explanatory factors.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXEL Return | 14% | -9% | -12% | 50% | 39% | 30% | 147% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -39% | -49% | 11% | 68% | 77% | 3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXEL Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 42% | 35% | 56% | 46% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXEL Max Drawdown | -18% | -21% | -18% | 0% | -16% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -50% | -63% | -41% | -21% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACAD, AGIO, NKTR, OMER, ACSB. See EXEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 667 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2193 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 415.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 829 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACAD, AGIO, NKTR, OMER, ACSB
In The Past
Exelixis's stock fell -41.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -41.5% loss requires a 70.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 07312025 | EXEL | Exelixis | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 19.9% | 19.9% | -4.6% |
| 12312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.1% | 49.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | 5.2% | -18.4% |
| 08312019 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | 9.0% | -27.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 07312025 | EXEL | Exelixis | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 19.9% | 19.9% | -4.6% |
| 12312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.1% | 49.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | 5.2% | -18.4% |
| 08312019 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | 9.0% | -27.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Exelixis
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| Rev LTM | 75 |
| Op Inc LTM | -138 |
| FCF LTM | -119 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -61 |
| CFO LTM | -119 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -61 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -88.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -84.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -113.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -114.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -119.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -116.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | -1.4 |
| P/E | -1.4 |
| P/CFO | -1.5 |
| Total Yield | -17.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -17.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |