Amgen (AMGN)
Market Price (4/28/2026): $340.54 | Market Cap: $183.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Amgen (AMGN)
Market Price (4/28/2026): $340.54Market Cap: $183.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Key risksAMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Key risksAMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic 2026 Guidance.
Amgen reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 3, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $5.29, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $4.76 by $0.53, or an 11.37% surprise. The company's revenue for the quarter also climbed 8.6% year-over-year to $9.87 billion, surpassing the $9.46 billion consensus. This strong performance was complemented by positive guidance for 2026, with projected revenues between $37.0 billion and $38.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $21.60 to $23.00, which management positioned as a "springboard" year for future growth.
2. Robust Performance of Key Growth Drivers and Significant Pipeline Advancements.
Amgen demonstrated strong growth across its product portfolio in 2025, with 13 products achieving double-digit growth and 14 products surpassing $1 billion in sales. Notably, Repatha, Evenity, and Tezspire each recorded over 30% year-over-year growth. The rare disease portfolio, including Uplizna, grew by 14% in 2025, with Uplizna itself increasing sales by 73% due to new indications and geographic expansion, and is forecast to reach $1.4 billion in worldwide sales by 2027. Further boosting confidence, the FDA granted full approval to IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab-dlle) for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in November 2025, following a Phase 3 study that showed a 40% reduction in the risk of death.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.9% change in AMGN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 325.06 | 337.74 | 3.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35,971 | 36,751 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.5% | 21.0% | 7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.0 | 23.6 | -5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 538 | 538 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 30.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.7% | 74.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.4% change in AMGN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 278.27 | 337.74 | 21.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,917 | 36,751 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.0% | 21.0% | 10.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.6 | 23.6 | 4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 538 | 538 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 22.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.2% | 68.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.8% change in AMGN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 302.07 | 337.74 | 11.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,424 | 36,751 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 21.0% | 71.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.7 | 23.6 | -40.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 537 | 538 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 12.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 0.3% | 71.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 53.5% change in AMGN stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 220.06 | 337.74 | 53.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,323 | 36,751 | 39.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.9% | 21.0% | -15.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.0 | 23.6 | 31.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 535 | 538 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 53.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 54.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 30.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.8% | 61.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMGN Return | 2% | 20% | 13% | -7% | 30% | 5% | 76% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -15% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMGN Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 62% | 37% | 48% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMGN Max Drawdown | -10% | -2% | -17% | -8% | -1% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -8% | -23% | -10% | -14% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABBV, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY. See AMGN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMGN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 215 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,575 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ABBV, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY
In The Past
Amgen's stock fell -26.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2022. A -26.7% loss requires a 36.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Amgen (AMGN)
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Here are a few analogies for Amgen (AMGN):
The Pfizer of the biotech world, developing a wide range of cutting-edge biologic drugs.
Like Microsoft for medicine, an R&D powerhouse creating essential therapeutic solutions across many diseases.
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- Enbrel: Treats plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis.
- Neulasta: Reduces the chance of infection due to a low white blood cell count in cancer patients.
- Prolia: Treats postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.
- Xgeva: Prevents skeletal-related events.
- Otezla: Treats adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease.
- Aranesp: Treats a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia.
- KYPROLIS: Treats patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
- Repatha: Reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization.
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Amgen (AMGN) primarily sells its products to other companies and organizations within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers.
Its major customers are **pharmaceutical wholesale distributors**, who act as intermediaries between Amgen and the entities that dispense the medications to patients. Key public pharmaceutical wholesale distributors that typically serve as major customers for pharmaceutical manufacturers include:
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
Additionally, Amgen directly serves various **healthcare providers** who administer or dispense its therapeutics. While these are generally not public companies with tradable symbols, they represent significant customer categories for Amgen. These include:
- Hospitals
- Physicians' clinics
- Dialysis centers
- Pharmacies
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Robert A. Bradway, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Robert A. Bradway has served as Amgen's Chairman since January 2013 and Chief Executive Officer since May 2012. He joined Amgen in 2006, holding positions such as President and Chief Operating Officer from May 2010 to May 2012, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from April 2007 to May 2010. Before joining Amgen, Mr. Bradway was a managing director at Morgan Stanley in London, where he led the firm's banking department and corporate finance activities in Europe starting in 2001. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in New York in 1985 as a healthcare industry investment banker. Mr. Bradway holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Amherst College and a Master of Business Administration from Harvard University.
Peter H. Griffith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Peter H. Griffith became Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in January 2020, having joined the company in 2019 as Executive Vice President, Finance. Prior to Amgen, Mr. Griffith was president of Sherwood Canyon Group, LLC, a private equity and advisory firm. He also had a distinguished career at EY (formerly Ernst & Young), where he was a partner for nearly 22 years, serving in various senior leadership roles including Global Vice Chair, Corporate Development, before retiring. Mr. Griffith earned his bachelor's degree from the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business.
David Reese, M.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
David Reese, M.D., serves as Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer.
Murdo Gordon, Executive Vice President, Global Commercial Operations
Murdo Gordon is the Executive Vice President of Global Commercial Operations at Amgen.
James Bradner, M.D., Executive Vice President, Research & Development
James Bradner, M.D., holds the position of Executive Vice President, Research & Development at Amgen.
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Here are the key risks to Amgen's business:- Loss of Exclusivity due to Patent Expirations and Biosimilar/Generic Competition: Amgen faces significant revenue erosion as patents for several of its blockbuster drugs expire, leading to increased competition from biosimilars and generics. Key products such as Enbrel, Prolia, Xgeva, and Otezla are either already facing or are anticipated to face biosimilar competition, which could substantially impact a large portion of the company's current revenue base. For instance, Prolia/Xgeva is expected to face U.S. patent expiry in 2025–2026, and Enbrel's final U.S. patent expiration is in 2028 and 2029.
- Legal and Regulatory Risks, particularly Drug Pricing Legislation: Amgen operates in a highly regulated environment and is susceptible to changes in healthcare policies and drug pricing reforms. Evolving U.S. federal coverage and reimbursement policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), have affected and are expected to continue to affect access to, pricing of, and sales of Amgen's products. Enbrel, a product that generates considerable revenue for Amgen, has already been selected for Medicare price setting under the IRA, with an expected negative impact on its profitability beginning January 1, 2026. Additionally, product liability remains a major risk in testing and marketing biotechnology products.
- Clinical Trial Failures and Research & Development (R&D) Productivity: The success of Amgen's business relies heavily on its ability to discover, develop, and commercialize new human therapeutics. The R&D process is inherently risky, with a high potential for clinical trial failures or the inability to demonstrate sufficient efficacy or safety for new drug candidates. For example, Amgen recently halted all clinical trials for rocatinlimab due to potential malignancy risks, illustrating the inherent uncertainties in drug development. A lack of successful new product launches could negatively impact future revenue growth and the ability to offset losses from patent expirations.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Amgen's main products:Enbrel
The global Enbrel market size was approximately USD 16.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 22.29 billion by 2034. North America is the largest market for Enbrel.
Neulasta
The Global Neulasta Market is estimated to be valued at USD 210.3 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 95.3 million by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -10.7% from 2025 to 2032. This decline is influenced by shifts in market dynamics, including intensifying biosimilar competition and price pressures. North America was the largest region in the Neulasta market in 2025.
Prolia
The Global Prolia Market is estimated to be valued at USD 4,562.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 5,703.2 million by 2032. Prolia alone accounted for between USD 4.0 and USD 4.5 billion annually by 2024 globally, with over USD 1.17 billion per quarter in U.S. sales. The broader global osteoporosis drug market was estimated at roughly USD 15-16 billion in 2024. North America is expected to lead the Prolia market.
Xgeva
The Global Xgeva Market is estimated to be valued at USD 2,501.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,140.7 million by 2032. North America is expected to lead this market.
Otezla
There is no specific standalone market size available for Otezla. However, Otezla competes within the following markets: The global psoriasis drugs market was estimated at USD 21,116.1 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 39,113.8 million by 2030. North America held the leading market position for psoriasis drugs in 2024, accounting for 38.65% of the global share. The global psoriatic arthritis market size was USD 9 billion in 2021.
Aranesp
The darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market is predicted to expand from a size of USD 5.81 billion in 2024 to USD 6.06 billion in 2025, and is projected to increase to USD 7.37 billion by 2029. North America was the largest region in the darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market in 2025.
KYPROLIS
There is no specific standalone market size available for KYPROLIS. It is a therapy for multiple myeloma, and the global multiple myeloma therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 20.87 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 30.30 billion by 2030. In 2023, the total multiple myeloma market size in the 7 major markets was approximately USD 21,300 million, with the United States contributing nearly USD 14,300 million.
Repatha
There is no specific standalone market size available for Repatha. It is a key drug in the PCSK9 inhibitors market, which was valued at USD 2.41 billion globally in 2024, estimated to reach USD 2.91 billion in 2025 and USD 13.35 billion by 2035. North America was the largest region in the Repatha market in 2025.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Amgen (AMGN) over the Next 2-3 Years:
- Growth of Key In-Market Products: Amgen anticipates continued strong performance from its established, high-growth products, including Repatha, EVENITY, and TEZSPIRE. These medicines demonstrated significant double-digit sales growth in 2025 and are expected to sustain this momentum, driven by increasing patient demand and market penetration.
- Expansion of the Rare Disease Portfolio: The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics in late 2023 significantly bolstered Amgen's rare disease offerings, with key treatments such as TEPEZZA and KRYSTEXXA. This portfolio, which exceeded $5 billion in sales in 2025, is projected to continue growing through the introduction of these therapies into international markets and new indications.
- Robust Biosimilar Portfolio: Amgen's biosimilar segment is a strong driver of revenue, having generated $3 billion in sales in 2025 with a 37% year-over-year increase. Recent launches like PAVBLU (a biosimilar to Eylea) and WEZLANA (a biosimilar for Stelara) are contributing to this growth, alongside a pipeline of biosimilar candidates for high-value products like Opdivo, Keytruda, and Ocrevus that are in Phase 3 development, positioning Amgen for further expansion in this market.
- Advancement of Late-Stage Pipeline, particularly MariTide: Amgen's pipeline, featuring numerous potential first- or best-in-class medicines, is a critical growth driver. MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a novel peptide-antibody conjugate for obesity and obesity-related conditions, is currently in multiple global Phase 3 studies. Positive results and potential launch of MariTide are anticipated to be a significant catalyst for future revenue growth.
- Innovative Oncology Products and Label Expansions: The company is focused on expanding its oncology portfolio, with recent FDA approvals such as IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab-dlle) for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in 2024. Additionally, pipeline advancements and label expansions for existing oncology assets like LUMAKRAS and xaluritamig are expected to contribute to revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Amgen did not repurchase shares under its stock repurchase program in 2025.
- In 2024, Amgen spent $200 million on share buybacks, following no cash spent on buybacks in fiscal 2023.
- As of December 31, 2025, Amgen had $6.8 billion of share repurchase authorization available. The company expects share repurchases not to exceed $500 million in 2025 and up to $3 billion in 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Amgen acquired Horizon Therapeutics for $27.8 billion in December 2022.
- In 2022, Amgen acquired ChemoCentryx for $4 billion.
- Amgen made several acquisitions in 2021, including Five Prime Therapeutics for $1.9 billion in March and TeneoBio for $900 million in July.
Capital Expenditures
- Amgen's capital expenditures were $1.112 billion in 2023, $1.096 billion in 2024, and approximately $1.9 billion in 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $2.6 billion.
- These investments are primarily focused on expanding manufacturing capacities with new plants and facilities in Ohio, North Carolina, Puerto Rico, and a new science and innovation center in Thousand Oaks, California.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Amgen vs United Therapeutics: Which Stock Could Rally? | 02/05/2026 | |
| A Decade of Rewards: $86 Bil From Amgen Stock | 02/04/2026 | |
| Amgen Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Time To Buy Amgen Stock? | 12/04/2025 | |
| Does Amgen Stock Lead the Pack? | 12/04/2025 | |
| How Low Can Amgen Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Amgen vs United Therapeutics: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than AMGN Stock: Pay Less Than Amgen To Get More From MU, MCK | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Amgen Stock Poised For A Rally? | 04/22/2026 | |
| Between Amgen and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | 03/11/2026 | |
| Can United Therapeutics Outrun Amgen in the Next Rally? | 02/05/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/04/2026 | |
| Amgen Stock Shares $86 Bil Success With Investors | 02/04/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AMGN.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 154.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 227.3 |
| Rev LTM | 61,870 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,748 |
| FCF LTM | 12,602 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,173 |
| CFO LTM | 15,314 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 22.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 227.3 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 21.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 25.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA210745 | OTEZLA | apremilast | tablet | 8292025 | 20.9% | 36.8% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| BLA761298 | PAVBLU | aflibercept-ayyh | injectable | 8232024 | -9.7% | -6.4% | -7.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| BLA761333 | BKEMV | eculizumab-aeeb | injectable | 5282024 | 9.7% | -5.3% | -4.3% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| BLA761344 | IMDELLTRA | tarlatamab-dlle | injectable | 5162024 | 3.4% | -5.3% | -10.7% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| BLA761285 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 45.5% |
| BLA761331 | WEZLANA | ustekinumab-auub | injectable | 10312023 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 27.1% | 21.6% | 45.5% |
| NDA214665 | LUMAKRAS | sotorasib | tablet | 5282021 | -5.6% | -14.1% | 10.8% | -2.7% | 68.2% |
| BLA761140 | RIABNI | rituximab-arrx | injectable | 12172020 | 7.3% | 6.4% | -0.1% | 23.9% | 76.9% |
| BLA761086 | AVSOLA | infliximab-axxq | injectable | 12062019 | -9.3% | -2.1% | 0.8% | -7.6% | 79.9% |
| BLA761073 | KANJINTI | trastuzumab-anns | vial | 6132019 | 10.6% | 35.4% | 26.7% | 46.3% | 141.2% |
| ... | |||||||||
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other products | 4,696 | 5,220 | 5,321 | 5,724 | 5,538 |
| Prolia | 4,048 | 3,628 | 3,248 | 2,763 | 2,672 |
| ENBREL | 3,697 | 4,117 | 4,465 | 4,996 | 5,226 |
| Otezla | 2,188 | 2,288 | 2,249 | 2,195 | 178 |
| XGEVA | 2,112 | 2,014 | 2,018 | 1,899 | 1,935 |
| Repatha | 1,635 | 1,296 | 1,117 | 887 | 661 |
| Nplate | 1,477 | 1,307 | 1,027 | 850 | |
| KYPROLIS | 1,403 | 1,247 | 1,108 | 1,065 | 1,044 |
| Aranesp | 1,362 | 1,421 | 1,480 | 1,568 | 1,729 |
| Other revenues | 1,280 | 1,522 | 1,682 | 1,184 | 1,158 |
| EVENITY | 1,160 | 787 | 530 | ||
| Vectibix | 984 | 893 | |||
| BLINCYTO | 861 | 583 | |||
| TEZSPIRE | 567 | ||||
| TEPEZZA | 448 | 0 | |||
| KRYSTEXXA | 272 | 0 | |||
| Neulasta | 1,734 | 2,293 | 3,221 | ||
| Total | 28,190 | 26,323 | 25,979 | 25,424 | 23,362 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $339.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 182.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $360.00 | $321.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -5.7% | 5.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 27.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| Upside Capture | 49.77 | 77.65 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.6% | 28.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| Up Beta | 1.74 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 0.74 | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| Down Beta | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| Up Capture | 59% | 107% | 109% | 133% | 72% | 35% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 33 | 69 | 132 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 113% | 44% | 45% | 54% | 81% | 81% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 30 | 57 | 120 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 24.8% | 27.6% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.1% | 15.8% | 0.18 | 69.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.92 | 27.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 18.0% | 1.95 | -14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 0.75 | 36.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 8.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 9.0% | 23.9% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.8% | 14.6% | 0.15 | 57.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 31.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.8% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 9.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 11.0% | 24.7% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.2% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 67.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 7.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.8% | 14.1% | 12.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -5.0% | -5.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.9% | -4.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 10.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 1.5% | 2.0% | -9.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | -5.0% | -1.7% | -0.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.5% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -8.1% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 37.00 Bil | 37.70 Bil | 38.40 Bil | 4.1% | Higher New | Actual: 36.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 15.4 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 14.2% | Higher New | Actual: 14.2 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 21.6 | 22.3 | 23 | 6.2% | Higher New | Actual: 21 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.60 Bil | 15.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.25 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 3.00 Bil | 500.0% | Higher New | Actual: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total Revenue | 35.80 Bil | 36.20 Bil | 36.60 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 35.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP EPS | 13.8 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 22.9% | Raised | Guidance: 11.5 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP EPS | 20.6 | 21 | 21.4 | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 20.8 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 2.20 Bil | 2.25 Bil | 2.30 Bil | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.30 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Share Repurchases | 500.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos, Esteban | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 379.12 | 54,792 | 20,772,595 | 29,047,209 | Form |
| 2 | Busch, Matthew C | VP, Finance & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 375.79 | 1,000 | 375,790 | 1,286,329 | Form |
| 3 | Grygiel, Nancy A | SVP & CCO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 337.26 | 3,139 | 1,058,667 | 2,436,722 | Form |
| 4 | Gordon, Murdo | EVP, Global Commercial Ops | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 336.83 | 6,879 | 2,317,071 | 14,121,033 | Form |
| 5 | Khosla, Rachna | SVP, Business Development | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 336.24 | 890 | 299,256 | 2,381,267 | Form |
AMGN Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Amgen receives a 'MARKET WEIGHT' rating. The company is at a critical inflection point, with a strong portfolio of new growth drivers and a major pipeline opportunity that are battling a significant and certain patent cliff on legacy blockbusters. The competitive moat is contested, and near-term growth is set to decelerate significantly. The current valuation appears to fairly balance this high-stakes transition, offering neither a compelling risk/reward skew nor an obvious reason to underweight a high-quality operator. The thesis is a 'show-me' story, warranting a neutral stance pending more clarity on the two opposing forces.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Quality Compounder / Stalwart, Secondary: Transition / Profit PivotAmgen's primary profile is a 'Quality Compounder' due to its high, stable margins, significant free cash flow, and history of blockbuster drugs. However, the current investment thesis is entirely defined by its ability to navigate a major patent cliff, making 'Transition / Profit Pivot' a critical secondary archetype. The company is actively managing the decline of legacy assets while pivoting to new growth drivers (Rare Disease, Obesity pipeline).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on the ability of the high-growth portfolio (Rare Disease, Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE) and the successful advancement of the MariTide obesity drug to generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable, but significant, sales erosion from the Prolia/Xgeva loss of exclusivity.
- The acquired Rare Disease portfolio grew 14% year-over-year to $5.2B.
- Key growth drivers demonstrated strong FY2025 performance: Repatha grew 36%, EVENITY grew 34%, and TEZSPIRE grew 52%.
- The obesity drug candidate, MariTide, is advancing through a large Phase 3 program, targeting a potential $100 billion market by 2030.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a faster and deeper-than-expected decline in sales for the denosumab franchise (Prolia/Xgeva), which accounted for over $6 billion in revenue. Multiple biosimilar competitors are launching in 2025-2026, and a price war or rapid loss of formulary access could create a revenue gap that the growth portfolio cannot fill in the near term, leading to revenue declines and earnings misses.
- Primary U.S. patents for denosumab expired in February 2025.
- Management has explicitly guided for 'accelerated sales erosion' to occur in 2026.
- Peer precedent with drugs like Neulasta and Enbrel shows that biosimilar entry leads to significant and sustained revenue declines.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Prolia/Xgeva Franchise Revenue | Quarterly YoY change > -20% | This is the most direct measure of the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. A decline steeper than 20% would signal that erosion is happening faster than the bull case allows, jeopardizing full-year targets. |
| Rare Disease Portfolio Revenue Growth | < 10% YoY | This portfolio is the largest and most important part of the 'Alpha Driver'. Growth below 10% would indicate the Horizon acquisition is failing to deliver the necessary growth to offset legacy declines. |
| MariTide Clinical Updates | Any news of delay or negative data from Phase 3 trials | The long-term bull case and potential for a multiple re-rating is almost entirely dependent on this drug. Any negative catalyst would severely impact the stock. |
The Patent Cliff Race: Can New Growth Outrun Legacy Erosion?
BULL VIEW
The growth portfolio and MariTide obesity pipeline will generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable Prolia/Xgeva sales erosion, enabling a return to sustainable growth.
CORE TENSION
The conflict between strong growth from new products (Rare Disease, Repatha, TEZSPIRE) and the certain, significant revenue loss from the Prolia/Xgeva franchise facing biosimilar competition.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management has explicitly guided for 'accelerated sales erosion' for Prolia/Xgeva in 2026, while FY25 results showed total product volume growth decelerating to +10% from +14% a year prior.
BEAR VIEW
The Prolia/Xgeva sales decline will be faster and deeper than expected, creating a revenue gap that the current growth drivers cannot fill, leading to near-term earnings misses.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early August 2026 | FY26 Q2 Earnings Call Watch: Prolia/Xgeva franchise revenue decline. Watch for a YoY change greater than the -20% bear threshold, a sharp acceleration from the +1% growth seen in FY2025. |
Late October / Early November 2026 | FY26 Q3 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: FY26 guidance confirmation or revision. Specifically, management's commentary on the combined impact of Prolia/Xgeva biosimilar erosion and IRA negotiations on Enbrel. |
Late 2026 / Early 2027 | MariTide Phase 3 Topline Data Readout Watch: Binary Headline: Efficacy (% weight loss) and safety data. Signal is superiority or clear differentiation (e.g., dosing frequency) versus Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Novo's Wegovy. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-11-04 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Company reported strong results, likely beating analyst estimates and providing an optimistic outlook, driving significant positive stock performance. | Surged +7.8% $292.57 -> $315.41 |
2025-12-05 | Competitor Biosimilar Launch Details: Sandoz announced the European launch of its denosumab biosimilars, Wyost and Jubbonti, increasing competitive pressure on Amgen's Prolia/Xgeva franchise ahead of US entry. | Fell notably by -3.0% $337.82 -> $327.62 |
2026-01-12 | J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Details: CEO Robert Bradway presented the company's strategy, emphasizing long-term growth driven by a broad portfolio and disciplined operations. Market reaction was minimal. | Muted (-0.2%) $323.86 -> $323.30 |
2026-02-03 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Reported Q4 EPS of $5.29 vs. $4.73 est. and issued strong FY26 guidance. Repatha sales grew 44% YoY, while Enbrel sales fell 48% YoY. | Surged +8.2% $336.26 -> $363.68 |
2026-02-26 | Insider Stock Sale Filing Details: An SEC Form 144 filing detailed a proposed sale of 54,792 shares by EVP Esteban Santos. The stock rose despite the filing, showing market focus on fundamentals. | Rose significantly by 2.3% $379.33 -> $388.16 |
2026-04-22 | C-Suite Change Details: Amgen announced the retirement of David M. Reese, EVP and Chief Technology Officer, effective June 30, 2026, prompting organizational changes to integrate AI across functions. | Flat (0.3%) $344.86 -> $345.92 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades at a moderate 2.4x the S&P 500's volatility. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and Fair valuation prevent a larger position until the patent cliff's impact becomes clearer.
Diversification Alternatives
HALO
INDUSTRYUnlike Amgen's binary drug-risk model, HALO has a diversified, royalty-based platform (ENHANZE) that reduces single-product patent cliff risk, Amgen's primary headwind.
UTHR
INDUSTRYUTHR offers a more focused growth profile in a niche market (PAH) with a clearer transition to next-generation therapies, avoiding the massive, multi-front battle Amgen faces with its patent cliff.
Amgen is evolving from a mature biotech dependent on a few legacy blockbusters into a more diversified growth company, leveraging its rare disease portfolio and next-generation pipeline in obesity and oncology to offset biosimilar pressures.
Filter all news through the lens of pipeline execution and durability of growth franchises against biosimilar erosion.
Positive Phase 3 data for MariTide (obesity); better-than-expected sales durability for Prolia and XGEVA post-biosimilar entry; revenue growth in the rare disease portfolio (TEPEZZA, KRYSTEXXA, UPLIZNA) exceeding 15% YoY; successful launches of new biosimilars like AMJEVITA.
Clinical trial setbacks or delays for key pipeline assets (especially MariTide); faster-than-expected erosion of Prolia/XGEVA sales due to biosimilar competition; pricing pressure in major therapeutic areas; failure of the rare disease portfolio to maintain strong growth momentum.
Quarterly fluctuations in sales of mature products like Enbrel; early-stage pipeline announcements without clear timelines; general market commentary on the biotech sector without specific Amgen catalysts.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst for Amgen is the advancement of its late-stage pipeline, particularly MariTide for obesity. Analyst focus is on the potential for this drug to enter a multi-billion dollar market, providing a new wave of growth that is not dependent on legacy products facing patent expirations. Success here could lead to a significant re-rating of the company's growth prospects.
General Medicine (Cardiovascular & Bone Health)
$11.0B TTM (30% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Repatha (evolocumab) for high cholesterol; Prolia (denosumab) for osteoporosis; EVENITY (romosozumab-aqqg) for osteoporosis.
Who Pays & How
Major US pharmaceutical wholesalers (e.g. McKesson, AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health) account for a substantial portion of sales. They pay for access to patent-protected, high-efficacy biologics that are standard-of-care for large patient populations with chronic diseases, creating durable demand.
Competition
Oncology
$8.7B TTM (24% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
BLINCYTO (blinatumomab); Vectibix (panitumumab); Nplate (romiplostim); XGEVA (denosumab).
Who Pays & How
Pharmaceutical wholesalers and specialty distributors pay for innovative cancer therapies that address specific genetic markers or treatment-resistant populations, often with strong supporting clinical data showing survival benefits.
Competition
Inflammation
$3.8B TTM (10% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Otezla (apremilast); TEZSPIRE (tezepelumab-ekko); Enbrel (etanercept).
Who Pays & How
Wholesalers and distributors pay for established and new therapies for chronic inflammatory diseases like psoriasis and asthma, driven by long-term patient need and physician prescribing habits.
Competition
Rare Disease
$5.2B TTM (14% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
TEPEZZA (teprotumumab-trbw); KRYSTEXXA (pegloticase); UPLIZNA (inebilizumab-cdon); TAVNEOS (avacopan).
Who Pays & How
Payers and specialty pharmacies pay premium prices for these drugs because they treat ultra-rare conditions with high unmet need, often with little to no competition. The patient populations are small but the per-patient revenue is very high.
Competition
Biosimilars & Legacy Products
$8.0B TTM (22% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Amjevita (adalimumab-atto); Enbrel (etanercept); Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa). Includes Amgen's own biosimilar portfolio and legacy branded products facing biosimilar competition.
Who Pays & How
Payers and distributors purchase these products based on price competition. Amgen's biosimilars are copies of competitors' blockbuster biologics, offered at a lower price. Legacy products like Enbrel are facing competition from biosimilars made by other companies.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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