Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%

Key risks
AMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical Development, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%
6 Key risks
AMGN key risks include [1] significant revenue erosion from imminent patent expirations and biosimilar competition for blockbuster drugs including Enbrel and Prolia, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Amgen (AMGN) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic 2026 Guidance.

Amgen reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 3, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $5.29, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $4.76 by $0.53, or an 11.37% surprise. The company's revenue for the quarter also climbed 8.6% year-over-year to $9.87 billion, surpassing the $9.46 billion consensus. This strong performance was complemented by positive guidance for 2026, with projected revenues between $37.0 billion and $38.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $21.60 to $23.00, which management positioned as a "springboard" year for future growth.

2. Robust Performance of Key Growth Drivers and Significant Pipeline Advancements.

Amgen demonstrated strong growth across its product portfolio in 2025, with 13 products achieving double-digit growth and 14 products surpassing $1 billion in sales. Notably, Repatha, Evenity, and Tezspire each recorded over 30% year-over-year growth. The rare disease portfolio, including Uplizna, grew by 14% in 2025, with Uplizna itself increasing sales by 73% due to new indications and geographic expansion, and is forecast to reach $1.4 billion in worldwide sales by 2027. Further boosting confidence, the FDA granted full approval to IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab-dlle) for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in November 2025, following a Phase 3 study that showed a 40% reduction in the risk of death.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.9% change in AMGN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120254282026Change
Stock Price ($)325.06337.743.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)35,97136,7512.2%
Net Income Margin (%)19.5%21.0%7.7%
P/E Multiple25.023.6-5.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5385380.0%
Cumulative Contribution3.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMGN4.5% 
Market (SPY)5.2%30.7%
Sector (XLV)-6.7%74.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.4% change in AMGN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)93020254282026Change
Stock Price ($)278.27337.7421.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)34,91736,7515.3%
Net Income Margin (%)19.0%21.0%10.7%
P/E Multiple22.623.64.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5385380.0%
Cumulative Contribution21.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMGN22.0% 
Market (SPY)8.0%29.2%
Sector (XLV)4.2%68.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.8% change in AMGN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)33120254282026Change
Stock Price ($)302.07337.7411.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)33,42436,75110.0%
Net Income Margin (%)12.2%21.0%71.5%
P/E Multiple39.723.6-40.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)537538-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution11.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMGN12.4% 
Market (SPY)29.3%35.6%
Sector (XLV)0.3%71.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 53.5% change in AMGN stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234282026Change
Stock Price ($)220.06337.7453.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,32336,75139.6%
Net Income Margin (%)24.9%21.0%-15.7%
P/E Multiple18.023.631.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)535538-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution53.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMGN54.3% 
Market (SPY)81.5%30.7%
Sector (XLV)16.8%61.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AMGN Return2%20%13%-7%30%5%76%
Peers Return23%18%-15%4%18%4%58%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%5%91%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AMGN Win Rate33%58%58%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%62%37%48%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AMGN Max Drawdown-10%-2%-17%-8%-1%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-8%-23%-10%-14%-3% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABBV, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY. See AMGN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAMGNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven215 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven24.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-47.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,575 days1,480 days

Compare to ABBV, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY

In The Past

Amgen's stock fell -26.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2022. A -26.7% loss requires a 36.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Amgen (AMGN)

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. It focuses on inflammation, oncology/hematology, bone health, cardiovascular disease, nephrology, and neuroscience areas. The company's products include Enbrel to treat plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis; Neulasta that reduces the chance of infection due a low white blood cell count in patients cancer; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; Xgeva for skeletal-related events prevention; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; and Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization. It also markets Nplate, Vectibix, MVASI, Parsabiv, EPOGEN, KANJINTI, BLINCYTO, Aimovig, EVENITY, AMGEVITATM, Sensipar/Mimpara, NEUPOGEN, IMLYGIC, Corlanor, and AVSOLA. Amgen Inc. serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors, as well as direct-to-consumer channels. It has collaboration agreements with Novartis Pharma AG; UCB; Bayer HealthCare LLC; BeiGene, Ltd.; Eli Lilly and Company; Datos Health; and Verastem, Inc. to evaluate VS-6766 in combination with lumakrastm (Sotorasib) in patients with KRAS G12C-mutant non-small cell lung cancer. It has an agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. to jointly develop and commercialize KHK4083, a Phase 3-ready anti-OX40 fully human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and other autoimmune diseases; and research and development collaboration with Neumora Therapeutics, Inc. and Plexium, Inc. Amgen Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.

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Here are a few analogies for Amgen (AMGN):

  • The Pfizer of the biotech world, developing a wide range of cutting-edge biologic drugs.

  • Like Microsoft for medicine, an R&D powerhouse creating essential therapeutic solutions across many diseases.

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  • Enbrel: Treats plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis.
  • Neulasta: Reduces the chance of infection due to a low white blood cell count in cancer patients.
  • Prolia: Treats postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.
  • Xgeva: Prevents skeletal-related events.
  • Otezla: Treats adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease.
  • Aranesp: Treats a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia.
  • KYPROLIS: Treats patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
  • Repatha: Reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Amgen (AMGN) primarily sells its products to other companies and organizations within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers.

Its major customers are **pharmaceutical wholesale distributors**, who act as intermediaries between Amgen and the entities that dispense the medications to patients. Key public pharmaceutical wholesale distributors that typically serve as major customers for pharmaceutical manufacturers include:

  • McKesson Corporation (MCK)
  • AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
  • Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)

Additionally, Amgen directly serves various **healthcare providers** who administer or dispense its therapeutics. While these are generally not public companies with tradable symbols, they represent significant customer categories for Amgen. These include:

  • Hospitals
  • Physicians' clinics
  • Dialysis centers
  • Pharmacies

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Robert A. Bradway, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Robert A. Bradway has served as Amgen's Chairman since January 2013 and Chief Executive Officer since May 2012. He joined Amgen in 2006, holding positions such as President and Chief Operating Officer from May 2010 to May 2012, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from April 2007 to May 2010. Before joining Amgen, Mr. Bradway was a managing director at Morgan Stanley in London, where he led the firm's banking department and corporate finance activities in Europe starting in 2001. He began his career at Morgan Stanley in New York in 1985 as a healthcare industry investment banker. Mr. Bradway holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Amherst College and a Master of Business Administration from Harvard University.

Peter H. Griffith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Peter H. Griffith became Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in January 2020, having joined the company in 2019 as Executive Vice President, Finance. Prior to Amgen, Mr. Griffith was president of Sherwood Canyon Group, LLC, a private equity and advisory firm. He also had a distinguished career at EY (formerly Ernst & Young), where he was a partner for nearly 22 years, serving in various senior leadership roles including Global Vice Chair, Corporate Development, before retiring. Mr. Griffith earned his bachelor's degree from the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business.

David Reese, M.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer

David Reese, M.D., serves as Amgen's Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer.

Murdo Gordon, Executive Vice President, Global Commercial Operations

Murdo Gordon is the Executive Vice President of Global Commercial Operations at Amgen.

James Bradner, M.D., Executive Vice President, Research & Development

James Bradner, M.D., holds the position of Executive Vice President, Research & Development at Amgen.

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Here are the key risks to Amgen's business:
  1. Loss of Exclusivity due to Patent Expirations and Biosimilar/Generic Competition: Amgen faces significant revenue erosion as patents for several of its blockbuster drugs expire, leading to increased competition from biosimilars and generics. Key products such as Enbrel, Prolia, Xgeva, and Otezla are either already facing or are anticipated to face biosimilar competition, which could substantially impact a large portion of the company's current revenue base. For instance, Prolia/Xgeva is expected to face U.S. patent expiry in 2025–2026, and Enbrel's final U.S. patent expiration is in 2028 and 2029.
  2. Legal and Regulatory Risks, particularly Drug Pricing Legislation: Amgen operates in a highly regulated environment and is susceptible to changes in healthcare policies and drug pricing reforms. Evolving U.S. federal coverage and reimbursement policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), have affected and are expected to continue to affect access to, pricing of, and sales of Amgen's products. Enbrel, a product that generates considerable revenue for Amgen, has already been selected for Medicare price setting under the IRA, with an expected negative impact on its profitability beginning January 1, 2026. Additionally, product liability remains a major risk in testing and marketing biotechnology products.
  3. Clinical Trial Failures and Research & Development (R&D) Productivity: The success of Amgen's business relies heavily on its ability to discover, develop, and commercialize new human therapeutics. The R&D process is inherently risky, with a high potential for clinical trial failures or the inability to demonstrate sufficient efficacy or safety for new drug candidates. For example, Amgen recently halted all clinical trials for rocatinlimab due to potential malignancy risks, illustrating the inherent uncertainties in drug development. A lack of successful new product launches could negatively impact future revenue growth and the ability to offset losses from patent expirations.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for Amgen's main products:

Enbrel

The global Enbrel market size was approximately USD 16.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 22.29 billion by 2034. North America is the largest market for Enbrel.

Neulasta

The Global Neulasta Market is estimated to be valued at USD 210.3 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 95.3 million by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -10.7% from 2025 to 2032. This decline is influenced by shifts in market dynamics, including intensifying biosimilar competition and price pressures. North America was the largest region in the Neulasta market in 2025.

Prolia

The Global Prolia Market is estimated to be valued at USD 4,562.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 5,703.2 million by 2032. Prolia alone accounted for between USD 4.0 and USD 4.5 billion annually by 2024 globally, with over USD 1.17 billion per quarter in U.S. sales. The broader global osteoporosis drug market was estimated at roughly USD 15-16 billion in 2024. North America is expected to lead the Prolia market.

Xgeva

The Global Xgeva Market is estimated to be valued at USD 2,501.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,140.7 million by 2032. North America is expected to lead this market.

Otezla

There is no specific standalone market size available for Otezla. However, Otezla competes within the following markets: The global psoriasis drugs market was estimated at USD 21,116.1 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 39,113.8 million by 2030. North America held the leading market position for psoriasis drugs in 2024, accounting for 38.65% of the global share. The global psoriatic arthritis market size was USD 9 billion in 2021.

Aranesp

The darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market is predicted to expand from a size of USD 5.81 billion in 2024 to USD 6.06 billion in 2025, and is projected to increase to USD 7.37 billion by 2029. North America was the largest region in the darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp) market in 2025.

KYPROLIS

There is no specific standalone market size available for KYPROLIS. It is a therapy for multiple myeloma, and the global multiple myeloma therapeutics market size was estimated at USD 20.87 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 30.30 billion by 2030. In 2023, the total multiple myeloma market size in the 7 major markets was approximately USD 21,300 million, with the United States contributing nearly USD 14,300 million.

Repatha

There is no specific standalone market size available for Repatha. It is a key drug in the PCSK9 inhibitors market, which was valued at USD 2.41 billion globally in 2024, estimated to reach USD 2.91 billion in 2025 and USD 13.35 billion by 2035. North America was the largest region in the Repatha market in 2025.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Amgen (AMGN) over the Next 2-3 Years:

  • Growth of Key In-Market Products: Amgen anticipates continued strong performance from its established, high-growth products, including Repatha, EVENITY, and TEZSPIRE. These medicines demonstrated significant double-digit sales growth in 2025 and are expected to sustain this momentum, driven by increasing patient demand and market penetration.
  • Expansion of the Rare Disease Portfolio: The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics in late 2023 significantly bolstered Amgen's rare disease offerings, with key treatments such as TEPEZZA and KRYSTEXXA. This portfolio, which exceeded $5 billion in sales in 2025, is projected to continue growing through the introduction of these therapies into international markets and new indications.
  • Robust Biosimilar Portfolio: Amgen's biosimilar segment is a strong driver of revenue, having generated $3 billion in sales in 2025 with a 37% year-over-year increase. Recent launches like PAVBLU (a biosimilar to Eylea) and WEZLANA (a biosimilar for Stelara) are contributing to this growth, alongside a pipeline of biosimilar candidates for high-value products like Opdivo, Keytruda, and Ocrevus that are in Phase 3 development, positioning Amgen for further expansion in this market.
  • Advancement of Late-Stage Pipeline, particularly MariTide: Amgen's pipeline, featuring numerous potential first- or best-in-class medicines, is a critical growth driver. MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a novel peptide-antibody conjugate for obesity and obesity-related conditions, is currently in multiple global Phase 3 studies. Positive results and potential launch of MariTide are anticipated to be a significant catalyst for future revenue growth.
  • Innovative Oncology Products and Label Expansions: The company is focused on expanding its oncology portfolio, with recent FDA approvals such as IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab-dlle) for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in 2024. Additionally, pipeline advancements and label expansions for existing oncology assets like LUMAKRAS and xaluritamig are expected to contribute to revenue growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • Amgen did not repurchase shares under its stock repurchase program in 2025.
  • In 2024, Amgen spent $200 million on share buybacks, following no cash spent on buybacks in fiscal 2023.
  • As of December 31, 2025, Amgen had $6.8 billion of share repurchase authorization available. The company expects share repurchases not to exceed $500 million in 2025 and up to $3 billion in 2026.

Outbound Investments

  • Amgen acquired Horizon Therapeutics for $27.8 billion in December 2022.
  • In 2022, Amgen acquired ChemoCentryx for $4 billion.
  • Amgen made several acquisitions in 2021, including Five Prime Therapeutics for $1.9 billion in March and TeneoBio for $900 million in July.

Capital Expenditures

  • Amgen's capital expenditures were $1.112 billion in 2023, $1.096 billion in 2024, and approximately $1.9 billion in 2025.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $2.6 billion.
  • These investments are primarily focused on expanding manufacturing capacities with new plants and facilities in Ohio, North Carolina, Puerto Rico, and a new science and innovation center in Thousand Oaks, California.

Better Bets vs. Amgen (AMGN)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AMGN.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PGNY_3312026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312026PGNYProgynyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.0%0.0%0.0%
CNC_3272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03272026CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-0.6%
OSCR_3272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03272026OSCROscar HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.0%3.0%-2.6%
WAT_3202026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03202026WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.4%-0.4%-3.3%
GILD_3202026_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03202026GILDGilead SciencesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AMGNABBVJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameAmgen AbbVie Johnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Mkt Price337.74197.97227.83110.0326.5358.26154.00
Mkt Cap181.7350.2548.8273.0150.8118.5227.3
Rev LTM36,75161,16096,36265,01162,57948,19561,870
Op Inc LTM9,08020,09125,79222,10817,40613,72318,748
FCF LTM8,10017,81617,41312,3609,07512,84512,602
FCF 3Y Avg8,61819,23718,07413,2007,90113,14613,173
CFO LTM9,95819,03022,87016,47211,70414,15615,314
CFO 3Y Avg9,97320,22523,61516,98211,04914,40215,692

Growth & Margins

AMGNABBVJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameAmgen AbbVie Johnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Rev Chg LTM10.0%8.6%7.9%1.3%-1.6%-0.2%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.9%1.9%4.4%3.2%-12.0%1.5%2.6%
Rev Chg Q8.6%10.0%9.9%5.0%-1.2%1.3%6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%2.5%2.3%1.2%-0.3%0.3%1.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM25.1%68.9%20.7%9.3%16.5%133.1%22.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-0.1%9.6%5.7%170.1%55.5%31.7%20.6%
Op Mgn LTM24.7%32.8%26.8%34.0%27.8%28.5%28.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.8%26.3%25.6%23.5%19.6%19.6%24.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%8.8%-0.4%-0.9%0.9%4.7%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM27.1%31.1%23.7%25.3%18.7%29.4%26.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.5%35.5%26.2%26.8%17.8%30.5%28.7%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%29.1%18.1%19.0%14.5%26.7%20.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg26.4%33.8%20.1%20.8%12.7%27.9%23.6%

Valuation

AMGNABBVJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameAmgen AbbVie Johnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
Mkt Cap181.7350.2548.8273.0150.8118.5227.3
P/S4.95.75.74.22.42.54.6
P/Op Inc20.017.421.312.38.78.614.9
P/EBIT15.536.921.112.214.810.615.1
P/E23.682.926.115.019.416.821.5
P/CFO18.218.424.016.612.98.417.4
Total Yield7.0%4.5%6.1%9.7%11.7%10.2%8.4%
Dividend Yield2.8%3.3%2.3%3.0%6.5%4.3%3.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.6%6.0%4.1%5.1%5.3%12.0%5.5%
D/E0.30.20.10.20.40.40.2
Net D/E0.30.20.10.10.30.30.2

Returns

AMGNABBVJNJMRKPFEBMYMedian
NameAmgen AbbVie Johnson .Merck Pfizer Bristol-. 
1M Rtn-3.2%-4.7%-5.2%-8.0%-1.9%-0.5%-3.9%
3M Rtn-3.2%-10.9%2.1%2.7%0.1%5.9%1.1%
6M Rtn17.3%-11.6%23.3%28.5%12.0%39.1%20.3%
12M Rtn23.0%6.3%50.7%37.1%23.5%26.2%24.8%
3Y Rtn54.8%45.9%52.2%4.5%-18.2%0.2%25.2%
1M Excs Rtn-15.2%-16.8%-17.3%-20.1%-14.0%-12.6%-16.0%
3M Excs Rtn-5.5%-13.2%-0.2%0.4%-2.2%3.6%-1.2%
6M Excs Rtn12.3%-16.9%15.9%22.7%5.7%30.8%14.1%
12M Excs Rtn-5.0%-19.4%22.3%8.6%-5.1%-1.5%-3.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-20.2%-37.1%-19.6%-68.2%-93.8%-77.8%-52.6%

FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for More
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA210745  OTEZLAapremilasttablet829202520.9%36.8%21.4%21.4%21.4%
BLA761298  PAVBLUaflibercept-ayyhinjectable8232024-9.7%-6.4%-7.7%9.8%9.8%
BLA761333  BKEMVeculizumab-aeebinjectable52820249.7%-5.3%-4.3%21.1%21.1%
BLA761344  IMDELLTRAtarlatamab-dlleinjectable51620243.4%-5.3%-10.7%15.5%15.5%
BLA761285  WEZLANAustekinumab-auubinjectable1031202324.0%8.8%27.1%21.6%45.5%
BLA761331  WEZLANAustekinumab-auubinjectable1031202324.0%8.8%27.1%21.6%45.5%
NDA214665  LUMAKRASsotorasibtablet5282021-5.6%-14.1%10.8%-2.7%68.2%
BLA761140  RIABNIrituximab-arrxinjectable121720207.3%6.4%-0.1%23.9%76.9%
BLA761086  AVSOLAinfliximab-axxqinjectable12062019-9.3%-2.1%0.8%-7.6%79.9%
BLA761073  KANJINTItrastuzumab-annsvial613201910.6%35.4%26.7%46.3%141.2%
...         

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Other products4,6965,2205,3215,7245,538
Prolia4,0483,6283,2482,7632,672
ENBREL3,6974,1174,4654,9965,226
Otezla2,1882,2882,2492,195178
XGEVA2,1122,0142,0181,8991,935
Repatha1,6351,2961,117887661
Nplate1,4771,3071,027850 
KYPROLIS1,4031,2471,1081,0651,044
Aranesp1,3621,4211,4801,5681,729
Other revenues1,2801,5221,6821,1841,158
EVENITY1,160787530  
Vectibix984893   
BLINCYTO861583   
TEZSPIRE567    
TEPEZZA4480   
KRYSTEXXA2720   
Neulasta  1,7342,2933,221
Total28,19026,32325,97925,42423,362


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$339.57 
Market Cap ($ Bil)182.7 
First Trading Date09/07/1984 
Distance from 52W High-12.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$360.00$321.33
DMA Trendupindeterminate
Distance from DMA-5.7%5.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility28.6%27.7%
Downside Capture0.460.43
Upside Capture49.7777.65
Correlation (SPY)34.6%28.1%
AMGN Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.840.790.700.670.540.52
Up Beta1.741.852.000.740.390.53
Down Beta0.470.580.170.250.460.32
Up Capture59%107%109%133%72%35%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days9213369132391
Down Capture113%44%45%54%81%81%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days13213057120360

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AMGN
AMGN24.8%27.6%0.78-
Sector ETF (XLV)6.1%15.8%0.1869.5%
Equity (SPY)31.5%12.5%1.9227.9%
Gold (GLD)38.6%27.2%1.189.7%
Commodities (DBC)45.9%18.0%1.95-14.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.4%13.4%0.7536.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-19.0%42.1%-0.398.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AMGN
AMGN9.0%23.9%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLV)4.8%14.6%0.1557.6%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5931.8%
Gold (GLD)20.2%17.8%0.929.7%
Commodities (DBC)14.8%19.1%0.631.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.4%18.8%0.0934.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.3%56.2%0.359.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AMGN
AMGN11.0%24.7%0.43-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.2%16.5%0.4567.8%
Equity (SPY)14.9%17.9%0.7148.9%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.705.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.9%17.7%0.4611.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2338.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.9%1.077.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3312026-8.8%
Average Daily Volume2.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity538.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/3/20268.2%7.7%9.3%
11/4/20257.8%14.1%12.0%
8/5/2025-5.1%-5.0%-5.9%
5/1/2025-0.9%-4.1%2.6%
2/4/20256.5%2.6%10.9%
10/30/20241.5%2.0%-9.6%
8/6/2024-5.0%-1.7%-0.7%
5/2/202411.8%12.4%11.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101111
# Negative141313
Median Positive6.0%6.4%7.9%
Median Negative-3.1%-3.5%-5.9%
Max Positive11.8%14.1%12.2%
Max Negative-7.2%-8.1%-13.0%

SEC Filings

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Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue37.00 Bil37.70 Bil38.40 Bil4.1% Higher NewActual: 36.20 Bil for 2025
2026 GAAP EPS15.416.216.914.2% Higher NewActual: 14.2 for 2025
2026 Non-GAAP EPS21.622.3236.2% Higher NewActual: 21 for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures 2.60 Bil 15.6% Higher NewActual: 2.25 Bil for 2025
2026 Share Repurchases 3.00 Bil 500.0% Higher NewActual: 500.00 Mil for 2025

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Total Revenue35.80 Bil36.20 Bil36.60 Bil2.0% RaisedGuidance: 35.50 Bil for 2025
2025 GAAP EPS13.814.214.622.9% RaisedGuidance: 11.5 for 2025
2025 Non-GAAP EPS20.62121.41.2% RaisedGuidance: 20.8 for 2025
2025 Capital Expenditures2.20 Bil2.25 Bil2.30 Bil-2.2% LoweredGuidance: 2.30 Bil for 2025
2025 Share Repurchases 500.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Santos, EstebanEVP, OperationsDirectSell2272026379.1254,79220,772,59529,047,209Form
2Busch, Matthew CVP, Finance & CAODirectSell2202026375.791,000375,7901,286,329Form
3Grygiel, Nancy ASVP & CCODirectSell11202025337.263,1391,058,6672,436,722Form
4Gordon, MurdoEVP, Global Commercial OpsDirectSell11142025336.836,8792,317,07114,121,033Form
5Khosla, RachnaSVP, Business DevelopmentDirectSell11132025336.24890299,2562,381,267Form

AMGN Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Amgen receives a 'MARKET WEIGHT' rating. The company is at a critical inflection point, with a strong portfolio of new growth drivers and a major pipeline opportunity that are battling a significant and certain patent cliff on legacy blockbusters. The competitive moat is contested, and near-term growth is set to decelerate significantly. The current valuation appears to fairly balance this high-stakes transition, offering neither a compelling risk/reward skew nor an obvious reason to underweight a high-quality operator. The thesis is a 'show-me' story, warranting a neutral stance pending more clarity on the two opposing forces.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Quality Compounder / Stalwart, Secondary: Transition / Profit Pivot

Amgen's primary profile is a 'Quality Compounder' due to its high, stable margins, significant free cash flow, and history of blockbuster drugs. However, the current investment thesis is entirely defined by its ability to navigate a major patent cliff, making 'Transition / Profit Pivot' a critical secondary archetype. The company is actively managing the decline of legacy assets while pivoting to new growth drivers (Rare Disease, Obesity pipeline).

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Rare Disease Portfolio and Key Growth Product Velocity Offsetting Legacy LOE

The investment thesis is centered on the ability of the high-growth portfolio (Rare Disease, Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE) and the successful advancement of the MariTide obesity drug to generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable, but significant, sales erosion from the Prolia/Xgeva loss of exclusivity.

Mechanism: Amgen captures value by shifting its revenue mix from mature products facing biosimilar competition to patent-protected, high-margin drugs in less penetrated, high-growth markets like rare diseases, cardiovascular, and potentially obesity. This mix shift should allow for a return to sustainable top-line growth and support a premium valuation.
Supporting Evidence:
  • The acquired Rare Disease portfolio grew 14% year-over-year to $5.2B.
  • Key growth drivers demonstrated strong FY2025 performance: Repatha grew 36%, EVENITY grew 34%, and TEZSPIRE grew 52%.
  • The obesity drug candidate, MariTide, is advancing through a large Phase 3 program, targeting a potential $100 billion market by 2030.
PRIMARY RISK
Accelerated Sales Erosion of Prolia/Xgeva Post-2025 Loss of Exclusivity

The primary risk is a faster and deeper-than-expected decline in sales for the denosumab franchise (Prolia/Xgeva), which accounted for over $6 billion in revenue. Multiple biosimilar competitors are launching in 2025-2026, and a price war or rapid loss of formulary access could create a revenue gap that the growth portfolio cannot fill in the near term, leading to revenue declines and earnings misses.

Mechanism: This is a Type 2 'Competitive/Share' risk. The loss of patent protection allows low-cost biosimilar alternatives to enter the market, leading to direct price competition and loss of market share for Amgen's branded products. Health systems and payers are incentivized to switch to the lowest-cost alternative.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Primary U.S. patents for denosumab expired in February 2025.
  • Management has explicitly guided for 'accelerated sales erosion' to occur in 2026.
  • Peer precedent with drugs like Neulasta and Enbrel shows that biosimilar entry leads to significant and sustained revenue declines.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Prolia/Xgeva Franchise RevenueQuarterly YoY change > -20%This is the most direct measure of the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. A decline steeper than 20% would signal that erosion is happening faster than the bull case allows, jeopardizing full-year targets.
Rare Disease Portfolio Revenue Growth< 10% YoYThis portfolio is the largest and most important part of the 'Alpha Driver'. Growth below 10% would indicate the Horizon acquisition is failing to deliver the necessary growth to offset legacy declines.
MariTide Clinical UpdatesAny news of delay or negative data from Phase 3 trialsThe long-term bull case and potential for a multiple re-rating is almost entirely dependent on this drug. Any negative catalyst would severely impact the stock.
Core Investment Debate

The Patent Cliff Race: Can New Growth Outrun Legacy Erosion?

BULL VIEW

The growth portfolio and MariTide obesity pipeline will generate enough new revenue to more than offset the predictable Prolia/Xgeva sales erosion, enabling a return to sustainable growth.

CORE TENSION

The conflict between strong growth from new products (Rare Disease, Repatha, TEZSPIRE) and the certain, significant revenue loss from the Prolia/Xgeva franchise facing biosimilar competition.


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

Management has explicitly guided for 'accelerated sales erosion' for Prolia/Xgeva in 2026, while FY25 results showed total product volume growth decelerating to +10% from +14% a year prior.

BEAR VIEW

The Prolia/Xgeva sales decline will be faster and deeper than expected, creating a revenue gap that the current growth drivers cannot fill, leading to near-term earnings misses.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Early August 2026
FY26 Q2 Earnings Call
Watch: Prolia/Xgeva franchise revenue decline. Watch for a YoY change greater than the -20% bear threshold, a sharp acceleration from the +1% growth seen in FY2025.
Late October / Early November 2026
FY26 Q3 Earnings & Guidance Update
Watch: FY26 guidance confirmation or revision. Specifically, management's commentary on the combined impact of Prolia/Xgeva biosimilar erosion and IRA negotiations on Enbrel.
Late 2026 / Early 2027
MariTide Phase 3 Topline Data Readout
Watch: Binary Headline: Efficacy (% weight loss) and safety data. Signal is superiority or clear differentiation (e.g., dosing frequency) versus Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Novo's Wegovy.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-11-04
Q3 2025 Earnings Report
Details: Company reported strong results, likely beating analyst estimates and providing an optimistic outlook, driving significant positive stock performance.
Surged +7.8%
$292.57 -> $315.41
2025-12-05
Competitor Biosimilar Launch
Details: Sandoz announced the European launch of its denosumab biosimilars, Wyost and Jubbonti, increasing competitive pressure on Amgen's Prolia/Xgeva franchise ahead of US entry.
Fell notably by -3.0%
$337.82 -> $327.62
2026-01-12
J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Details: CEO Robert Bradway presented the company's strategy, emphasizing long-term growth driven by a broad portfolio and disciplined operations. Market reaction was minimal.
Muted (-0.2%)
$323.86 -> $323.30
2026-02-03
Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance
Details: Reported Q4 EPS of $5.29 vs. $4.73 est. and issued strong FY26 guidance. Repatha sales grew 44% YoY, while Enbrel sales fell 48% YoY.
Surged +8.2%
$336.26 -> $363.68
2026-02-26
Insider Stock Sale Filing
Details: An SEC Form 144 filing detailed a proposed sale of 54,792 shares by EVP Esteban Santos. The stock rose despite the filing, showing market focus on fundamentals.
Rose significantly by 2.3%
$379.33 -> $388.16
2026-04-22
C-Suite Change
Details: Amgen announced the retirement of David M. Reese, EVP and Chief Technology Officer, effective June 30, 2026, prompting organizational changes to integrate AI across functions.
Flat (0.3%)
$344.86 -> $345.92
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock trades at a moderate 2.4x the S&P 500's volatility. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and Fair valuation prevent a larger position until the patent cliff's impact becomes clearer.

Diversification Alternatives
HALO
INDUSTRY

Unlike Amgen's binary drug-risk model, HALO has a diversified, royalty-based platform (ENHANZE) that reduces single-product patent cliff risk, Amgen's primary headwind.

Core Thesis: A high-margin, capital-light 'picks and shovels' play on the broader biotech industry's shift to more convenient subcutaneous drug delivery, with a strong partner network.
UTHR
INDUSTRY

UTHR offers a more focused growth profile in a niche market (PAH) with a clearer transition to next-generation therapies, avoiding the massive, multi-front battle Amgen faces with its patent cliff.

Core Thesis: A market leader in pulmonary hypertension, successfully managing its own product lifecycle with a pipeline of follow-on products designed to extend franchise durability and maintain market leadership.
How Is The Market Pricing AMGN?

Amgen is evolving from a mature biotech dependent on a few legacy blockbusters into a more diversified growth company, leveraging its rare disease portfolio and next-generation pipeline in obesity and oncology to offset biosimilar pressures.

Filter all news through the lens of pipeline execution and durability of growth franchises against biosimilar erosion.

What will confirm the thesis

Positive Phase 3 data for MariTide (obesity); better-than-expected sales durability for Prolia and XGEVA post-biosimilar entry; revenue growth in the rare disease portfolio (TEPEZZA, KRYSTEXXA, UPLIZNA) exceeding 15% YoY; successful launches of new biosimilars like AMJEVITA.

What will damage the thesis

Clinical trial setbacks or delays for key pipeline assets (especially MariTide); faster-than-expected erosion of Prolia/XGEVA sales due to biosimilar competition; pricing pressure in major therapeutic areas; failure of the rare disease portfolio to maintain strong growth momentum.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in sales of mature products like Enbrel; early-stage pipeline announcements without clear timelines; general market commentary on the biotech sector without specific Amgen catalysts.

Repricing Catalyst

The primary catalyst for Amgen is the advancement of its late-stage pipeline, particularly MariTide for obesity. Analyst focus is on the potential for this drug to enter a multi-billion dollar market, providing a new wave of growth that is not dependent on legacy products facing patent expirations. Success here could lead to a significant re-rating of the company's growth prospects.

What AMGN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Press Release, Feb 3, 2026
General Medicine (Cardiovascular & Bone Health)
$11.0B TTM (30% of Total) · -1% Margin
What It Is

Repatha (evolocumab) for high cholesterol; Prolia (denosumab) for osteoporosis; EVENITY (romosozumab-aqqg) for osteoporosis.

Who Pays & How

Major US pharmaceutical wholesalers (e.g. McKesson, AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health) account for a substantial portion of sales. They pay for access to patent-protected, high-efficacy biologics that are standard-of-care for large patient populations with chronic diseases, creating durable demand.

Per-unit sale to wholesalers and distributors.
Competition
For Prolia/EVENITY: Eli Lilly (Forteo), Novartis (Reclast). For Repatha: Sanofi/Regeneron (Praluent).
Bisphosphonates, a competing class for osteoporosis, hold ~35% market share and are often first-line therapy due to lower cost.
Amgen's moat is its patent protection on novel biologics, extensive clinical data proving efficacy and safety, and established relationships with payers and providers, which creates physician loyalty and patient adherence.
Oncology
$8.7B TTM (24% of Total) · -1% Margin
What It Is

BLINCYTO (blinatumomab); Vectibix (panitumumab); Nplate (romiplostim); XGEVA (denosumab).

Who Pays & How

Pharmaceutical wholesalers and specialty distributors pay for innovative cancer therapies that address specific genetic markers or treatment-resistant populations, often with strong supporting clinical data showing survival benefits.

Per-unit sale to distributors.
Competition
Roche, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Merck, and Bristol Myers Squibb all have extensive oncology portfolios that compete with Amgen's products.
Competitors have broad portfolios across multiple cancer types and treatment modalities, deep R&D pipelines, and established commercial infrastructure.
Amgen's moat in oncology is built on its BiTE (Bispecific T-cell Engager) platform, a proprietary technology for developing novel immunotherapies like BLINCYTO and IMDELLTRA.
Inflammation
$3.8B TTM (10% of Total) · -1% Margin
What It Is

Otezla (apremilast); TEZSPIRE (tezepelumab-ekko); Enbrel (etanercept).

Who Pays & How

Wholesalers and distributors pay for established and new therapies for chronic inflammatory diseases like psoriasis and asthma, driven by long-term patient need and physician prescribing habits.

Per-unit sale to distributors.
Competition
For Enbrel/Otezla: AbbVie (Humira, Skyrizi), Pfizer (Xeljanz), Johnson & Johnson (Stelara, Remicade). For TEZSPIRE: Regeneron/Sanofi (Dupixent).
Competitors have highly successful and entrenched products in the immunology market, with large sales forces and strong relationships with rheumatologists and dermatologists.
TEZSPIRE has a unique mechanism of action, which gives it an advantage in certain asthma patient populations. Otezla's oral administration is a key differentiator against many injectable competitors.
Rare Disease
$5.2B TTM (14% of Total) · -1% Margin
What It Is

TEPEZZA (teprotumumab-trbw); KRYSTEXXA (pegloticase); UPLIZNA (inebilizumab-cdon); TAVNEOS (avacopan).

Who Pays & How

Payers and specialty pharmacies pay premium prices for these drugs because they treat ultra-rare conditions with high unmet need, often with little to no competition. The patient populations are small but the per-patient revenue is very high.

Per-unit sale to specialty distributors.
Competition
Competition is limited for these specific rare disease indications. The primary challenge is diagnosis and patient identification rather than direct product competitors.
N/A - a key feature of the rare disease business model is the lack of direct competition.
The moat is regulatory. These drugs have Orphan Drug Designation from the FDA, which provides a period of marketing exclusivity (typically 7 years in the U.S.). This regulatory barrier is the primary defense against competition.
Biosimilars & Legacy Products
$8.0B TTM (22% of Total) · -1% Margin
What It Is

Amjevita (adalimumab-atto); Enbrel (etanercept); Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa). Includes Amgen's own biosimilar portfolio and legacy branded products facing biosimilar competition.

Who Pays & How

Payers and distributors purchase these products based on price competition. Amgen's biosimilars are copies of competitors' blockbuster biologics, offered at a lower price. Legacy products like Enbrel are facing competition from biosimilars made by other companies.

Per-unit sale, with pricing being the key competitive lever.
Competition
Other biosimilar manufacturers (e.g., Coherus BioSciences) for its legacy products, and the original branded drug manufacturers (e.g., AbbVie's Humira) for its own biosimilar products.
First-to-market biosimilars often gain a durable market share advantage. Price is the primary competitive factor.
Amgen's advantage is its large-scale, efficient biologics manufacturing capabilities and its established relationships with payers, which allows it to compete effectively on price and secure formulary access.
AMGN Evolution: Price Return by Era
1980–2001 · The Biotech Pioneer
Epogen & Neupogen: Building a Foundation on Two Blockbusters +Many Thousands % (IPO to 2001)
Founded in 1980 as Applied Molecular Genetics, Amgen's early years were defined by the revolutionary cloning of the genes for erythropoietin and G-CSF. This led to the launch of two foundational blockbuster drugs: Epogen in 1989 for anemia and Neupogen in 1991 for neutropenia in cancer patients. These two products transformed patient care and established Amgen as a premier biotechnology company, reaching $1 billion in combined sales by 1992.
2002–2018 · Diversification and Expansion
Beyond the Big Two: M&A, Inflammation, and Bone Health ~+150% (2002-2018)
Facing the eventual patent expirations of its foundational drugs, Amgen entered a new era of diversification. The 2002 acquisition of Immunex brought the blockbuster inflammation drug Enbrel into the portfolio. This period also saw significant internal R&D success with the launch of major new franchises in bone health (Prolia/Xgeva in 2010) and cardiovascular disease (Repatha in 2015). This strategy expanded Amgen's therapeutic footprint and created new pillars of growth to offset the decline of its original products.
2019–Present · Navigating the Cliff, Building the Future
Biosimilar Pressures, Rare Disease Pivot, and the Obesity Moonshot +58% (5-year total return as of April 2026)
This era is defined by managing the significant competitive pressure from biosimilars on legacy products like Neulasta and Enbrel. In response, Amgen has focused on both its own biosimilar program and large-scale strategic M&A, culminating in the ~$28 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics in 2023 to become a leader in rare diseases. The current narrative is dominated by the need for this new rare disease portfolio and the next-generation internal pipeline, especially the obesity candidate MariTide, to drive future growth.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Pullback in Uptrend · -
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Reward
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars