NextEra Energy (NEE)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $89.48 | Market Cap: $186.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $89.48Market Cap: $186.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x Key risksNEE key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and sensitivity to interest rates, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x |
| Key risksNEE key risks include [1] a substantial debt load and sensitivity to interest rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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NextEra Energy (NEE) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Acquisition-related regulatory uncertainty following the $67 billion Dominion Energy deal.
NextEra Energy's announcement on May 18, 2026, of its all-stock agreement to acquire Dominion Energy for approximately $67 billion introduced significant regulatory hurdles. The proposed transaction, which would create the world's largest regulated electric utility, led to a muted market reaction and contributed to a stock drawdown, as investors weighed the approval risks across the four affected states.
2. Persistent inflation and expectations for a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% following its June 2026 FOMC meeting. However, a hawkish shift among policymakers, with half signaling support for a rate hike later in 2026, was driven by persistent inflation, which reached 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026. This macroeconomic backdrop generally negatively impacts capital-intensive utility stocks like NextEra Energy by increasing borrowing costs and making their dividends less attractive.
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NextEra Energy (NEE) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Acquisition-related regulatory uncertainty following the $67 billion Dominion Energy deal.
NextEra Energy's announcement on May 18, 2026, of its all-stock agreement to acquire Dominion Energy for approximately $67 billion introduced significant regulatory hurdles. The proposed transaction, which would create the world's largest regulated electric utility, led to a muted market reaction and contributed to a stock drawdown, as investors weighed the approval risks across the four affected states.
2. Persistent inflation and expectations for a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% following its June 2026 FOMC meeting. However, a hawkish shift among policymakers, with half signaling support for a rate hike later in 2026, was driven by persistent inflation, which reached 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026. This macroeconomic backdrop generally negatively impacts capital-intensive utility stocks like NextEra Energy by increasing borrowing costs and making their dividends less attractive.
3. Mixed fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, with a notable revenue miss.
On April 23, 2026, NextEra Energy reported fiscal Q1 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.03 by $0.06. However, the company's revenue for the quarter was $6.70 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $7.43 billion. This revenue miss, despite the EPS beat, contributed to a 1.01% dip in the stock price on the reporting day, signaling investor caution.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.0% change in NEE stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 92.20 | 89.41 | -3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,413 | 27,867 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.9% | 29.4% | 17.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.1 | 22.8 | -19.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,081 | 2,082 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEE | -3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | -4.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 0.1% | 76.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.0% change in NEE stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.16 | 89.41 | 13.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,298 | 27,867 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.7% | 29.4% | 18.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.1 | 22.8 | -9.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,065 | 2,082 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEE | 13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 2.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 8.3% | 73.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.5% change in NEE stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.47 | 89.41 | 32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,268 | 27,867 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.8% | 29.4% | 34.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.2 | 22.8 | -9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,056 | 2,082 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEE | 32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 14.9% | 67.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.6% change in NEE stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.92 | 89.41 | 31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,782 | 27,867 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 29.4% | 8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 22.8 | 12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,000 | 2,082 | -4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEE | 31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 18.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | 52.6% | 75.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEE Return | 23% | -9% | -25% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 31% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 2% | -9% | 17% | 17% | 12% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEE Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 62% | 53% | 62% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEE Max Drawdown | -18% | -26% | -41% | -18% | -16% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -26% | -22% | -12% | -12% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DUK, SO, D, AEP, EXC. See NEE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 123 days |
In The Past
NextEra Energy's stock fell -6.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NEE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1167 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
NextEra Energy's stock fell -6.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About NextEra Energy (NEE)
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) is a leading North American energy company primarily involved in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electric power. The company utilizes a diverse portfolio of energy sources, including wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas, and coal, to produce electricity. This comprehensive approach allows NextEra Energy to serve a wide range of customers while also being a significant developer and operator of clean energy solutions.
The company's business model encompasses two main areas. Firstly, through its regulated utility operations, it provides essential electricity services to approximately 5.7 million customer accounts, serving about 11 million people across the east and lower west coasts of Florida. Secondly, NextEra Energy also develops, constructs, and operates long-term contracted clean energy assets, such as renewable generation facilities, battery storage projects, and electric transmission facilities across North America. It also sells energy commodities and manages generation facilities in wholesale energy markets.
NextEra Energy's primary customers include retail electric consumers in Florida, where it acts as a traditional utility. Beyond Florida, its market extends to wholesale customers and entities seeking long-term contracted clean energy solutions across North America. This dual focus allows NextEra Energy to maintain a stable regulated earnings base while also capitalizing on the growing demand for renewable energy and grid infrastructure improvements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for NextEra Energy (NEE):
The Amazon of utility-scale clean energy infrastructure.
Imagine Con Edison (a major city's power utility), but also as one of North America's largest developers and operators of wind and solar farms.
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- Electric Power Generation: Produces electricity using various sources, including wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas, and coal.
- Electric Power Transmission & Distribution: Transmits and distributes generated electricity to retail and wholesale customers through its network of lines and substations.
- Clean Energy Infrastructure Development & Operation: Develops, constructs, and operates long-term contracted assets such as renewable generation facilities, battery storage projects, and electric transmission facilities.
- Energy Commodity Sales: Sells energy commodities in wholesale energy markets.
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1. Residential Customers: NextEra Energy serves approximately 11 million people through approximately 5.7 million customer accounts in the east and lower west coasts of Florida. These customers are individual households that consume electricity for personal use.
2. Commercial and Industrial Customers: Within its Florida service territory, NextEra Energy also serves various commercial establishments and industrial facilities. These customers represent businesses of different sizes that require electricity for their operations.
3. Wholesale Customers: Beyond its direct retail base in Florida, NextEra Energy also sells electric power to wholesale customers across North America. These include other utility companies, municipalities, and energy marketers who purchase electricity in bulk for distribution or resale, as well as entities involved in wholesale energy markets.
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John W. Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
John W. Ketchum joined NextEra Energy in 2002. He was appointed president and CEO in March 2022 and became chairman of the board of directors in July 2022. Mr. Ketchum also serves as chairman of Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) since February 2023. His previous roles at NextEra Energy include president and CEO of NextEra Energy Resources, chief financial officer of NextEra Energy, and chief financial officer of FPL. He also served as CEO, president, and chief financial officer of XPLR Infrastructure (NextEra Energy Partners). Before joining NextEra Energy, he worked as a lawyer. Mr. Ketchum holds a Master of Laws degree in taxation and a Juris Doctor from the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law, and a Bachelor of Arts in economics and finance from the University of Arizona. He completed the Emerging CFO – Strategic Financial Leadership Program at Stanford University.
Michael H. Dunne, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Michael H. Dunne was appointed Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer for NextEra Energy, Inc. and Florida Power & Light Company, effective May 22, 2025. He previously served as treasurer and assistant secretary for NextEra Energy since January 2023 and as vice president, finance in 2022. Prior to joining NextEra Energy in April 2022, Mr. Dunne was a managing director, power and renewables, investment banking at Bank of America. At Bank of America, he led the firm's renewable and energy transition strategic advisory efforts, having joined the firm in 2002. He holds a law degree from Harvard Law School and a bachelor's in economics and history from Duke University.
Armando Pimentel, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer, Florida Power & Light Company
Armando Pimentel, Jr. was appointed chief executive officer of Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) in February 2023. He previously served as president and CEO of NextEra Energy Resources, LLC and as executive vice president, finance, and chief financial officer of NextEra Energy.
Brian W. Bolster, President and Chief Executive Officer, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
Brian W. Bolster became President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, effective May 22, 2025. He joined NextEra Energy in May 2024 as executive vice president, finance and CFO. Before joining NextEra Energy, Mr. Bolster was the head of natural resources in the Americas at Goldman Sachs, where he played an integral role in growing the firm's natural resources business. He started at Goldman Sachs in 1999, becoming a managing director in 2007 and a partner in 2012.
Kirk Crews, Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
Kirk Crews is executive vice president and chief risk officer for NextEra Energy, Inc. He joined NextEra Energy in 2016 and has held various business and financial roles within the company. Prior to his current position, Mr. Crews served as executive vice president, finance and chief financial officer (CFO) for NextEra Energy, as well as executive vice president, finance and CFO of Florida Power & Light Company. He also held the role of CFO and was a member of the board of directors for XPLR Infrastructure, LP.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to NextEra Energy (NEE) are primarily associated with the highly regulated nature of the utility industry, its significant operations in a hurricane-prone region, and its exposure to fuel price fluctuations.
- Regulatory and Political Risks: NextEra Energy operates in a heavily regulated industry where changes in energy policies, environmental regulations (particularly concerning its coal and natural gas facilities), and rate-setting mechanisms can directly impact its operations and financial performance. Its significant presence and customer base in Florida make it particularly susceptible to the state's regulatory environment and political shifts.
- Weather-Related Risks and Climate Change: Given its extensive transmission and distribution infrastructure and customer concentration in Florida, NextEra Energy is highly vulnerable to severe weather events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. These events can cause significant damage to infrastructure, lead to costly repairs, service disruptions, and increased operating expenses. The broader impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels and altered weather patterns, could also affect long-term operational costs and infrastructure resilience.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Although NextEra Energy has a growing portfolio of renewable energy assets, it still generates electricity through natural gas and coal facilities and sells energy commodities in wholesale markets. Fluctuations in the prices of natural gas and coal can affect the cost of electricity generation and impact profitability, especially for generation not covered by long-term, fixed-price contracts.
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The clear emerging threat for NextEra Energy is the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources, specifically customer-owned rooftop solar and battery storage systems. This trend allows residential and commercial customers to generate and store their own electricity, reducing their reliance on purchasing power from NextEra's grid and potentially impacting the company's retail electricity sales and distribution revenue streams, which are core to its traditional utility business model in Florida.
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NextEra Energy (NEE) operates in several significant addressable markets across North America, primarily in electric power generation, transmission, distribution, and clean energy solutions such as wind, solar, and battery storage. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services are detailed below:
Electricity Generation and Retail/Wholesale Market
- The power generation industry within the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries (U.S., Canada, and Mexico) had a total market value of approximately $229.4 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to approximately $279.7 billion by 2029. The U.S. alone accounted for $168.0 billion of this market in 2024, with a projection to reach $210.1 billion by 2029.
- In Florida, where NextEra Energy's subsidiary Florida Power & Light (FPL) operates, the total electricity net generation was approximately 266,119,236 megawatthours in 2024. FPL serves approximately 5.9 million customer accounts, totaling about 12 million people in Florida, and reported operating revenues of $18.37 billion in 2023. In March 2026, FPL held a 50% market share among utilities in Florida.
Renewable Energy Market (Overall)
- The U.S. renewable energy market was valued at approximately $94.86 billion in 2024. It is estimated to reach $98.30 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to approximately $122.0 billion by 2032. In terms of installed capacity, the U.S. renewable energy market is expected to grow from 545.16 gigawatts in 2026 to 778.78 gigawatts by 2031.
Wind Energy Market
- The North America wind power market, in terms of cumulative installed capacity, is estimated at 198.17 gigawatts in 2026 and is projected to reach 252.83 gigawatts by 2031.
- The North America wind turbine market size was valued at over $25.1 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach approximately $43.2 billion by 2034.
- The North America offshore wind energy market was valued at $6.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $51.24 billion by 2033.
Solar Energy Market
- The North America Solar Photovoltaic (PV) market, in terms of installed capacity, was estimated at 277.27 gigawatts in 2026 and is projected to reach 492.16 gigawatts by 2031.
- The North America solar PV market size (revenue) was valued at $45.4 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to $82.1 billion by 2035.
- Specifically, the U.S. solar PV market was valued at $44.1 billion in 2025.
Battery Storage Market
- The North America Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market was valued at approximately $20.82 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to $49.34 billion by 2031.
Electric Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Market
- The North America power transmission and distribution market generated a revenue of approximately $98.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately $125.48 billion by 2030.
- Another estimate places the North America electricity Transmission and Distribution market at $115.97 billion in 2025, projected to reach $118.59 billion in 2026.
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- Expansion of Renewable Energy and Storage Portfolio: NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) is a leading driver of future revenue growth, with analysts projecting a substantial increase in operating revenues. The company boasts a robust backlog of over 20 gigawatts (GW) of new wind, solar, and battery storage projects, providing clear visibility for growth through 2026 and beyond. NextEra aims to significantly increase its solar capacity, targeting approximately 35% of its total by 2032, and expects its combined renewable generation portfolio to reach around 81 GW by the end of 2027. This expansion is supported by substantial capital expenditures in renewables and includes strategies like repowering existing wind projects through 2026 to enhance their value.
- Customer Growth and Infrastructure Investment at Florida Power & Light (FPL): Florida Power & Light, NextEra Energy's regulated utility, benefits from Florida's rapidly expanding population, which drives consistent customer growth and increased electricity demand in its service territory. FPL's sustained capital investments, which amounted to approximately $9.4 billion in 2023, are aimed at rate base expansion and adding new generation capacity. The approval of FPL's 2025 rate agreement also provides regulatory certainty for four years, supporting stable earnings expansion and continued investment in infrastructure to serve its growing customer base.
- Meeting Increased Power Demand from Data Centers and Decarbonization Initiatives: NextEra Energy is actively addressing the surging demand for power from data centers, with over three gigawatts of projects currently in development. The company anticipates building 15-30 GW of generation capacity for data centers by 2035 and is forging partnerships with major technology companies, such as Google, to expand energy infrastructure for data center needs. Additionally, NextEra is focused on leading the decarbonization of the U.S. economy, including efforts to develop the hydrogen market, which presents further opportunities for new energy solutions and revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- NextEra Energy has indicated that its stable free cash flow, derived from organic and inorganic assets, contributes to increasing shareholder value through dividends and share repurchases.
- As of October 2025, NextEra Energy had a current buyback authorization that would enable the company to repurchase 180 million shares.
- Historical data from late 2025 and early 2026 suggests minimal or zero share repurchases by NextEra Energy on a per-share basis.
Share Issuance
- In December 2025, NextEra Energy established an at-the-market equity issuance program to offer and sell up to $4 billion of its common stock over time through an Equity Distribution Agreement.
- NextEra Energy's funding plan for 2024-2027 includes equity units totaling $5 billion to $7 billion.
- In February 2026, the company announced a public offering of $2 billion in equity units, with the potential to increase to $2.27 billion, to support energy projects and for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2025, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC announced an agreement to acquire Symmetry Energy Solutions, a natural gas supply, storage, and asset management company, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
- NextEra Energy acquired CenterPoint Energy, a manufacturer of electric transmission equipment, in November 2023.
- In December 2025, NextEra Energy and Google Cloud expanded their partnership to develop approximately 15 gigawatts of new power generation capacity by 2035 to support several large-scale data center campuses in the United States.
Capital Expenditures
- NextEra Energy plans to invest approximately $72.6 billion to $75 billion from 2025 through 2029 (or 2028), with a primary focus on infrastructure modernization, grid reliability, and the development of low-cost clean energy generation.
- Between 2025 and 2030, the company plans to invest nearly $94.2 billion to support growth and infrastructure development.
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures for Florida Power & Light (FPL) are projected to be between $9.3 billion and $9.8 billion, aimed at expanding its regulatory capital base and ensuring the utility's reliability and cost-effectiveness.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 85.8 |
| Rev LTM | 26,326 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,392 |
| FCF LTM | -3,270 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,838 |
| CFO LTM | 8,396 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,848 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 85.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.8 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 8.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) | 18,262 | 17,019 | 18,365 | 17,282 | 12,600 |
| NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) | 8,760 | 7,542 | 9,672 | 3,720 | 3,053 |
| Corporate and Other | 390 | 192 | 77 | -46 | -87 |
| Gulf Power | 1,503 | ||||
| Total | 27,412 | 24,753 | 28,114 | 20,956 | 17,069 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| FPL | 749 | 607 |
| FPL Energy | 172 | 82 |
| Corporate | -34 | 15 |
| Total | 887 | 704 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) | 5,012 | 4,543 | 4,552 | 3,701 | 2,935 |
| NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) | 2,975 | 2,299 | 3,558 | 285 | 599 |
| Corporate and Other | -1,152 | 104 | -800 | 161 | -232 |
| Gulf Power | 271 | ||||
| Total | 6,835 | 6,946 | 7,310 | 4,147 | 3,573 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) | 105,158 | 98,141 | 91,469 | 86,559 | 78,067 |
| NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) | 103,528 | 89,398 | 83,145 | 70,713 | 62,113 |
| Corporate and Other | 4,035 | 2,605 | 2,875 | 1,663 | 732 |
| Total | 212,721 | 190,144 | 177,489 | 158,935 | 140,912 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $89.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 186.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/10/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $87.77 | $86.58 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.5% | 22.9% |
| Downside Capture | -0.09 | -6.86 |
| Upside Capture | 0.26 | 14.68 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -4.3% | 6.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| Up Beta | 0.15 | -0.23 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Down Beta | -0.07 | -0.57 | -0.39 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Up Capture | -10% | -15% | -2% | 11% | 14% | 8% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 20 | 31 | 71 | 137 | 398 |
| Down Capture | -27% | 62% | 26% | -13% | -14% | 48% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 31 | 52 | 112 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | 20.9% | 22.9% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 11.7% | 15.0% | 0.53 | 68.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 5.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 16.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 36.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 10.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | 6.1% | 26.9% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.3% | 17.3% | 0.44 | 76.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 8.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | 13.8% | 25.5% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.2% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 81.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 17.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 57.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 10.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 6.9% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | 11.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -0.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | -6.1% | -7.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 1/24/2025 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.5% | -4.9% | -8.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 10.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.0% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 11.0% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -11.0% | -15.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 6.9% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | 11.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -0.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | -6.1% | -7.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 7.4% |
| 1/24/2025 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.5% | -4.9% | -8.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 10.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 1.4% | 3.2% | 17.8% |
| 1/25/2024 | 1.7% | 2.8% | -0.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | 7.0% | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| 7/25/2023 | -0.1% | -2.9% | -10.6% |
| 4/25/2023 | -1.5% | -2.8% | -6.2% |
| 1/25/2023 | -8.7% | -11.0% | -13.1% |
| 10/28/2022 | 4.7% | 3.6% | 11.5% |
| 7/22/2022 | 1.7% | 7.2% | 13.7% |
| 4/21/2022 | -6.5% | -10.1% | -13.6% |
| 1/25/2022 | -8.3% | -4.6% | -11.7% |
| 10/20/2021 | 2.3% | 4.2% | 7.0% |
| 7/23/2021 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 13.3% |
| 4/21/2021 | -3.2% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 1/26/2021 | -1.9% | -6.0% | -15.1% |
| 10/21/2020 | -1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 7/24/2020 | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.0% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 11.0% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -11.0% | -15.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/24/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 3.92 | 3.97 | 4.02 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.97 for 2026 | |
| 2032 Adjusted EPS Growth | 8.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.0% for 2032 | |||
| 2026 Dividends per share growth | 10.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2028 Dividends per share growth | 6.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2028 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 12.00 Bil | 12.50 Bil | 13.00 Bil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 3.92 | 3.97 | 4.02 | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 3.81 for 2026 | |
| 2032 Adjusted EPS Growth | 8.0% | ||||||
| 2035 Adjusted EPS Growth | 8.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Dividends per share growth | 10.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2028 Dividends per share growth | 6.0% | ||||||
| 2032 Capital Expenditures | 90.00 Bil | 95.00 Bil | 100.00 Bil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 3.45 | 3.58 | 3.7 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.58 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 3.63 | 3.81 | 4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.81 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 3.85 | 4.08 | 4.32 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.08 for 2027 | |
| 2026 Dividends per share growth | 10.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2025 Capital Investments | 9.30 Bil | 9.55 Bil | 9.80 Bil | 13.7% | Raised | Guidance: 8.40 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/9/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daggs, Nicole J | EVP, Human Res & Corp Svcs | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 93.00 | 4,934 | 458,862 | 1,572,165 | Form |
| 2 | May, James Michael | Treasurer and Asst. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 7,161 | 646,423 | 2,411,924 | Form |
| 3 | Crews, Terrell Kirk II | EVP, Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 19,672 | 1,775,791 | 6,667,071 | Form |
| 4 | Lemasney, Mark | EVP Power Generation Division | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 3,845 | 347,088 | 811,979 | Form |
| 5 | Reagan, Ronald R | EVP, Eng., Const. & ISC | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 95.00 | 5,079 | 482,505 | 1,041,200 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daggs, Nicole J | EVP, Human Res & Corp Svcs | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 93.00 | 4,934 | 458,862 | 1,572,165 | Form |
| 2 | May, James Michael | Treasurer and Asst. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 7,161 | 646,423 | 2,411,924 | Form |
| 3 | Crews, Terrell Kirk II | EVP, Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 19,672 | 1,775,791 | 6,667,071 | Form |
| 4 | Lemasney, Mark | EVP Power Generation Division | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 90.27 | 3,845 | 347,088 | 811,979 | Form |
| 5 | Reagan, Ronald R | EVP, Eng., Const. & ISC | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 95.00 | 5,079 | 482,505 | 1,041,200 | Form |
| 6 | Ketchum, John W | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 89.34 | 99,603 | 8,898,532 | 27,332,054 | Form |
| 7 | Reagan, Ronald R | EVP, Eng., Const. & ISC | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 90.00 | 18,620 | 1,675,800 | 867,870 | Form |
| 8 | Sieving, Charles E | EVP, Chief Legal | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 90.00 | 30,000 | 2,700,000 | 15,073,290 | Form |
| 9 | Reagan, Ronald R | EVP, Eng., Const. & ISC | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 85.00 | 10,826 | 920,210 | 1,329,655 | Form |
| 10 | Reagan, Ronald R | EVP, Eng., Const. & ISC | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 81.25 | 12,129 | 985,481 | 2,150,606 | Form |
| 11 | Pimentel, Armando JR | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 83.91 | 145,140 | 12,178,697 | 13,651,570 | Form | |
| 12 | Sieving, Charles E | EVP, Chief Legal | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 80.00 | 11,336 | 906,880 | 13,398,480 | Form |
| 13 | Lemasney, Mark | EVP Power Generation Division | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 77.90 | 808 | 62,943 | 658,956 | Form |
| 14 | Lemasney, Mark | EVP Power Generation Division | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 74.90 | 846 | 63,365 | 694,098 | Form |
| 15 | Lemasney, Mark | EVP Power Generation Division | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 71.90 | 846 | 60,827 | 727,125 | Form |
| 16 | Dunne, Michael | EVP, Finance & CFO | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 70.79 | 10,000 | 707,900 | 4,393,511 | Form |
| 17 | Coffey, Robert | EVP, Nuclear Div & CNO | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 71.84 | 7,500 | 538,800 | 1,906,562 | Form |
| 18 | May, James Michael | Treasurer and Asst. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 77.50 | 2,177 | 168,718 | 2,143,805 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $73.1 Mil | 11.1% | 44 | ADD +105.1% | 13F |
| BlackBarn Capital Partners LP | $31.1 Mil | 9.4% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Electron Capital Partners, LLC | $189.5 Mil | 8.9% | 44 | ADD +15.4% | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $336.5 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $12.2 Mil | 3.0% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $9.7 Mil | 2.9% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $7.7 Mil | 2.7% | 35 | ADD +85.8% | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Castellan Group | $5.0 Mil | 0.7% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $73.1 Mil | 11.1% | 44 | ADD +105.1% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $7.7 Mil | 2.7% | 35 | ADD +85.8% | 13F |
| Electron Capital Partners, LLC | $189.5 Mil | 8.9% | 44 | ADD +15.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirova US LLC | $336.5 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Electron Capital Partners, LLC | $189.5 Mil | 8.9% | 44 | ADD +15.4% | 13F |
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $73.1 Mil | 11.1% | 44 | ADD +105.1% | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| BlackBarn Capital Partners LP | $31.1 Mil | 9.4% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $12.2 Mil | 3.0% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $9.7 Mil | 2.9% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $7.7 Mil | 2.7% | 35 | ADD +85.8% | 13F |
| Castellan Group | $5.0 Mil | 0.7% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
NEE Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on NextEra's unique ability to capture accelerating power demand. A record 4 gigawatts of new projects were added in Q1 2026, feeding a 33 gigawatt backlog. This growth must, however, be funded by a highly leveraged balance sheet with $102.4 billion in net debt, creating a clear tension.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Regulated Utility & Project-Based Contractual(FPL Regulated Rate Base * Allowed ROE) + (NEER Contracted MW * PPA Price) Growth in FPL's rate base from capital investment and NEER's ability to develop and contract new generation/storage projects at attractive returns in a high-demand market.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests it is uniquely positioned to do so, with both its regulated and competitive businesses firing.
- NEER added a record 4 gigawatts of new projects in Q1 2026.
- The total NEER project backlog now stands at approximately 33 gigawatts.
- FPL has a pipeline of about 21 gigawatts of interest from large-load customers.
- NEER recontracted projects in Q1 with a price increase of roughly $20/MWh.
- Company affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92 to $4.02.
PRIMARY RISK
Aggressive growth is straining the balance sheet, with net debt at $102.4 billion and operating expenses growing faster than revenue.
- Net debt is $102.4 billion, up from $87.3 billion a year earlier.
- The ratio of net debt to trailing EBITDA is 5.99 times.
- Interest coverage is low at 2.4 times.
- Operating expenses grew 17.3% year-over-year, outpacing 10.3% revenue growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) New Project Origination | 4 gigawatts of new renewables and storage projects added to the backlog in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | New project origination has accelerated for three consecutive quarters, from 3.0 GW in Q3 2025 to 3.6 GW in Q4 2025, and a record 4.0 GW in the most recent quarter. This indicates strengthening demand and execution in the high-growth competitive energy segment. |
| Florida Power & Light (FPL) Regulatory Capital Employed Growth | 8.8% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | The growth rate of FPL's regulatory capital, a key driver of its regulated earnings, has shown a slight but steady acceleration over the last three reported periods. This reflects continued investment in its service territory to support a growing customer base. |
| NEER New Project Backlog | approximately 33 gigawatts (As of Q1 2026 earnings call (4/23/2026)) | Indicates the volume of future generation and storage capacity that NEER has secured under long-term contracts, providing strong visibility into future growth. |
| FPL Large Load Interest | about 21 gigawatts (As of Q1 2026 earnings call (4/23/2026)) | Market rewards Company expects at least one large load customer to sign up for capacity under FPL's tariff by the end of the year.. Represents the pipeline of potential demand from very large customers, primarily data centers, which could drive significant future capital investment and rate base growth at the regulated utility. |
| NEER New Originations (Quarterly) | 4 gigawatts (Q1 2026) | Measures the pace of new long-term contracts being signed for renewables and storage, reflecting current market demand and NEER's ability to capture it. The Q1 2026 result was a record quarter. |
Growth Engine vs. Balance Sheet Strain
BULL VIEW
The unprecedented demand for power, captured in a 33 gigawatt backlog, will generate sufficient earnings growth to service debt and deleverage the company over time.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating demand from a 33 GW backlog offset the risk from $102.4B in net debt, which the market rewarded with a 6.0% stock gain last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence, including a record 4 gigawatts of new originations and a strong stock reaction to earnings, favors the growth narrative for now.
BEAR VIEW
High leverage at 5.99x Net Debt/EBITDA and poor cost control will lead to a funding crisis if project execution falters or capital markets tighten.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Friday, July 24, 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Watch: NextEra Energy to report second-quarter 2026 financial results and host an investor presentation. |
10/26/2026 | Earnings Execution and Margin Pressure Watch: Updates on operating margins, expense growth trends, and any revision to full-year guidance. |
10/26/2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Report Watch: NextEra Energy to report its next scheduled earnings. |
10/27/2026 - 11/5/2026 | Peer Contagion from Utility Sector Watch: Peer commentary on data center demand, project costs, regulatory headwinds, or capital plans. |
10/28/2026 | Peer SO Earnings Report Watch: Peer Southern (SO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Peer D Earnings Report Watch: Peer Dominion Energy (D) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Merger Integration and Execution Risk Watch: Official deal announcement, terms, regulatory filings, and outcomes of shareholder investigations. |
No set date | Litigation Settlement Failure Watch: Court filings on preliminary or final approval of the settlement. A failure would reopen litigation risk. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-21 | Class Action Lawsuit Settlement Details: The company entered into a settlement term sheet to resolve a 2023 securities class action lawsuit for an aggregate payment of $150 million, to be covered by insurance. | +1.6% $88.00 -> $89.41 |
2026-07-21 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: The company announced an increase in its quarterly common stock dividend to $0.6232 per share from $0.5665 per share. | +1.6% $88.00 -> $89.41 |
2026-07-10 | Q2 Earnings Date Announced Details: NextEra announced it plans to report second-quarter 2026 financial results on Friday, July 24, 2026, before the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. | +1.5% $87.10 -> $88.38 |
2026-05-18 | Dominion Merger News Emerges Details: News reports indicated NextEra Energy was near a deal to merge with rival utility Dominion Energy, Inc. Law firms subsequently announced investigations into the potential transaction. | -3.5% $92.68 -> $89.40 |
2026-04-23 | Q1 2026 Earnings Reported Details: NextEra reported a 10% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. The company affirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. The stock had a positive two-day reaction of 6.0%. | +5.9% $89.35 -> $94.59 |
2026-01-27 | Q4 2025 Earnings Reported Details: Company reported full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.71, an increase of over 8% from 2024. The stock had a positive two-day reaction of 2.0%. | +2.5% $84.27 -> $86.34 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: NEE trades at roughly 23% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.5x the market), around the 17th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DUK - Duke Energy
Larger-Scale Regulated PeerDuke Energy operates at a larger scale, with trailing-twelve-month revenue of $33.2 billion and capital expenditures of $15 billion, offering a different risk profile within the same sector.
SO - Southern Company
Southeastern Utility PeerSouthern Company provides concentrated exposure to the high-growth Southeastern U.S. market, a focal point for new industrial and data center development.
A two-engine growth machine: a regulated utility (FPL) in a booming state provides a stable, growing earnings base, while a national, best-in-class developer (NEER) captures the massive, accelerating demand for new energy infrastructure.
NEE's investment thesis rests on its dual structure. FPL is a regulated monopoly in Florida, one of the fastest-growing states, allowing for steady, predictable rate base growth and earnings. This stable foundation supports NEER, a national leader in building energy projects, which is capitalizing on the 'golden age of power demand' driven by AI and data centers. NEER's scale, development expertise, and long-term contracts provide a visible, high-growth trajectory.
Announcements of new large-load data center contracts at FPL; quarterly backlog additions at NEER exceeding 3-4 GW; successful re-contracting of nuclear or renewable assets at significantly higher prices.
An adverse regulatory decision in Florida impacting FPL's rate structure or cost recovery; significant project cancellations or delays in NEER's backlog; evidence of waning demand from hyperscalers.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in wind resource at NEER; shareholder lawsuits from M&A law firms investigating potential deals; short-term stock price reactions to earnings that are within guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
Execution on the massive demand from data centers, both through FPL's new large load tariff and NEER's 'bring your own generation' (BYOG) data center hub strategy, including the 9.5 GW gas-fired generation projects with the U.S. and Japan.
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL)
$18.5B TTM (67% of Total)What It Is
A rate-regulated electric utility that generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy to over six million customer accounts, serving approximately 12 million people in Florida.
Who Pays & How
Retail customers (residential, commercial, industrial) and a limited number of wholesale customers in Florida pay for electricity. They are largely captive customers within FPL's service territory who rely on the utility for reliable power at rates approved by the Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC).
Competition
NextEra Energy Resources (NEER)
$8.9B TTM (32% of Total)What It Is
Develops, constructs, and operates generation facilities (wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas), battery storage, and regulated transmission assets. It sells energy, capacity, and related products to utilities, cooperatives, municipalities, and commercial & industrial customers across the U.S. and Canada.
Who Pays & How
Utilities and large corporations (including hyperscalers like Google) pay NEER for power and capacity, primarily through long-term contracts. They choose NEER for its track record of completing projects on schedule, creditworthiness, scale, and ability to offer cost-effective, customized energy solutions to meet rising demand and clean energy goals.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Multi-Utilities Resources |
| Public Utilities Fortnightly |
| Power Magazine |
| Energy Central |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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