National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $89.5 | Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $89.5Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. | Key risksNFG key risks include [1] criminal charges from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania alleging 100 violations of state environmental laws related to fracking-wastewater spills. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Key risksNFG key risks include [1] criminal charges from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania alleging 100 violations of state environmental laws related to fracking-wastewater spills. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Guidance.
National Fuel Gas reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.06 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 by 7.85%. This represented a 24% increase in adjusted EPS compared to the prior year. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.60 to $8.10 per share, indicating continued positive outlook. Revenue for the quarter reached $651.5 million, surpassing the anticipated $650.7 million.
2. Robust Performance in Integrated Upstream and Gathering Segment.
The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment was a significant driver of earnings growth, with its adjusted EPS increasing by 45% compared to the prior year. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 14% increase in natural gas price realizations and a 12% growth in natural gas production, largely due to successful Tioga County Utica well results. The company's operations are increasingly tied to natural gas prices, and its position is bolstered by expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand, which creates new markets for U.S. natural gas.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.4% change in NFG stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.61 | 89.49 | 12.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,278 | 2,380 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.8% | 27.5% | 20.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 12.5 | -10.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 90 | 91 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFG | 12.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 6.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 7.8% | 45.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.9% change in NFG stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.24 | 89.49 | -1.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,183 | 2,380 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.2% | 27.5% | 146.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.9 | 12.5 | -63.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 90 | 91 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFG | -1.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 4.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 6.3% | 37.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.8% change in NFG stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.29 | 89.49 | 15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,969 | 2,380 | 20.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.6 | 3.4 | -3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 91 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFG | 15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 24.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 19.2% | 49.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.6% change in NFG stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.45 | 89.49 | 70.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,298 | 2,380 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.3% | 27.5% | 4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.0 | 12.5 | 56.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 91 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFG | 70.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 26.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 48.0% | 53.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NFG Return | 61% | 2% | -18% | 25% | 35% | 13% | 158% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 2% | -7% | 17% | 19% | 13% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NFG Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 45% | 52% | 65% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NFG Max Drawdown | -2% | -8% | -21% | -9% | 0% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -11% | -20% | -9% | -3% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATO, UGI, OGS, NJR, SWX. See NFG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NFG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 630 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 777 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 721 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ATO, UGI, OGS, NJR, SWX
In The Past
National Fuel Gas's stock fell -34.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -34.2% loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.
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About National Fuel Gas (NFG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe National Fuel Gas:
- It's an integrated natural gas company that both produces natural gas and delivers it to homes and businesses, similar to a regional gas utility like National Grid or Consolidated Edison that also owns its own gas wells and pipelines.
- Think of it as a diversified natural gas company combining the functions of a gas producer (like a regional EQT Corp), a midstream pipeline and storage operator (similar to a regional Kinder Morgan), and a local gas utility (like National Grid's gas operations).
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Natural Gas Production: Explores for, develops, and produces natural gas in the Appalachian region and California.
- Oil Production: Explores for, develops, and produces crude oil in the Appalachian region and California.
- Natural Gas Transportation: Provides interstate pipeline services for natural gas through its integrated system.
- Natural Gas Storage: Offers underground natural gas storage services to various customers.
- Natural Gas Gathering: Builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in production areas.
- Natural Gas Sales & Distribution: Sells natural gas and provides local natural gas transportation services to residential, commercial, and industrial utility customers.
- Timber Sales: Manages and sells timber from its owned and managed timber properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
National Fuel Gas (NFG) serves a diversified customer base across its various segments. Based on the provided description, the company sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers through its Utility segment. This segment markets gas to a variety of customer categories, including:
- Residential customers: Individuals who use natural gas for their homes.
- Commercial customers: Businesses, offices, and retail establishments.
- Industrial customers: Manufacturing plants and other industrial facilities.
Additionally, its Pipeline and Storage segment transports natural gas for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers, indicating sales to other businesses, though no specific names of these external companies are provided.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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David P. Bauer, President and Chief Executive Officer- Mr. Bauer was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of National Fuel Gas Company in 2019. He joined the Company in 2001, having previously served in numerous leadership capacities, including President of National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation from 2016 to 2019 and Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer from 2010 to 2019. Before joining National Fuel, he spent a decade in public accounting at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) from 1991 to 2001, where he was a Senior Manager in the Audit and Advisory Services practice. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from Boston College.
Timothy J. Silverstein, Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer
- Mr. Silverstein was appointed Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer of National Fuel Gas Company effective May 1, 2023. Prior to this, he served as Treasurer for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation, Empire Pipeline, Inc., and National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC since July 2021. He previously held positions at Citi and HSBC Bank before joining National Fuel in 2008 through the Company's management development program. Mr. Silverstein earned his bachelor's degree in Computer Engineering and a master's degree in Business Administration from the University at Buffalo.
Justin I. Loweth, President, Seneca Resources Company and National Fuel Gas Midstream Company
- Mr. Loweth serves as President of Seneca Resources Company, LLC and was appointed President of National Fuel Gas Midstream Company in March 2022. He began his career with Seneca Resources in 2011 as Director of Strategic Planning and Acquisitions, progressing to Vice President of Finance and Acquisitions a year later. In 2015, his responsibilities expanded to include Oil and Gas Marketing, Accounting, Information Technology, Reservoir Engineering, Corporate Reserves, and Business and Corporate Development, leading to his appointment as Senior Vice President in 2017 and President in May 2021. Before his tenure at Seneca, he worked for Municipal Energy Resources Corp, Harrison Lovegrove, and Credit Suisse, focusing on the energy sector. He holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from Southern Methodist University.
Elena G. Mendel, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
- Ms. Mendel has served as Controller and Principal Accounting Officer of National Fuel Gas Company since July 2019. She joined National Fuel in 1994 as a financial accountant and, prior to that, worked at Price Waterhouse (now PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP) for six years. Throughout her career at National Fuel, she has held various management positions across the audit, accounting, and benefits services departments, including at Seneca Resources Company. She was promoted to Chief Auditor in 2012. Ms. Mendel is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from the University at Buffalo.
Lee E. Hartz, General Counsel and Secretary
- Mr. Hartz serves as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of National Fuel Gas Company, a position he was appointed to in 2025. He joined National Fuel in 2004 as an attorney and has since received numerous promotions and expanded responsibilities, including being promoted to Vice President of National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation in 2021. His current role also involves overseeing the Company's audit services, land, and risk management departments, as well as the legal departments for its regulated subsidiaries. Mr. Hartz holds a bachelor's degree from Allegheny College and earned his Juris Doctorate from Mitchell Hamline School of Law.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to National Fuel Gas (NFG)
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) faces several key risks inherent to its diversified energy operations, particularly in the natural gas sector. These risks are primarily driven by evolving regulatory landscapes, the volatile nature of commodity markets, and the operational integrity of its extensive infrastructure.
- Regulatory and Environmental Policy Changes: National Fuel Gas operates in regions, specifically New York and Pennsylvania, that are increasingly implementing climate change initiatives, electrification policies, and stricter environmental regulations. These governmental and regulatory actions, such as New York's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), could lead to increased operational costs, restrictions, and market pressures to reduce reliance on natural gas. Such policy shifts have the potential to significantly challenge future gas demand and the company's financial outlook.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: As a company deeply involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of natural gas, National Fuel Gas is highly susceptible to fluctuations in natural gas prices. The company's revenues and profitability can be adversely affected by these price swings, which are influenced by various external factors including supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, geopolitical events, and infrastructure constraints. Despite employing hedging strategies, significant changes in market conditions can still impact financial results.
- Operational Risks and Infrastructure Integrity: National Fuel Gas operates a vast network of pipelines, storage facilities, and gathering infrastructure, which are subject to inherent operational risks. These include potential disruptions from natural disasters, equipment failures, and cybersecurity threats, all of which could lead to financial losses and service interruptions. The reliance on third-party midstream facilities further contributes to these operational challenges. Additionally, there are ongoing risks associated with pipeline safety, potential methane leakages during midstream storage and transportation, and damage from excavation activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats for National Fuel Gas (NFG) are:
- Electrification of heating and cooking: An increasing push by governments and consumers, driven by climate concerns and technological advancements (e.g., heat pumps, induction cooktops), to replace natural gas for heating and cooking with electricity. This directly threatens the demand for natural gas provided by NFG's Utility segment.
- Rapid deployment and increasing cost-effectiveness of renewable energy sources and energy storage: The accelerating adoption of solar, wind, and battery storage technologies for electricity generation is reducing the need for natural gas-fired power plants. This shift threatens the long-term demand for the natural gas explored, produced, transported, and stored by NFG's Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, and Gathering segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For National Fuel Gas (NFG), the addressable market sizes for their main products and services are identified as follows:
-
Exploration and Production (Natural Gas):
- In the Appalachian region, natural gas production reached approximately 35.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, with an average of 35.8 Bcf/d so far in 2025. This region is the largest natural gas-producing area in North America. Pennsylvania, a key state within the Appalachian region, produced 7.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2023 and 7.4 Tcf in 2024, accounting for one-fifth of the total U.S. output in 2024.
-
Exploration and Production (Oil):
- In California, crude oil production was approximately 104 million barrels in 2024. California was the eighth-largest crude oil producer among the 50 states in 2024. As of 2023, California produced 23.4% of the crude oil supplied to its refineries.
-
Pipeline and Storage (Natural Gas Transportation):
- The U.S. gas pipeline infrastructure market, which includes transportation, was valued at approximately $1,149.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around $2,431.55 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 8.67% from 2025 to 2034. Pennsylvania has 4,550 miles of gas pipelines (as of 2015), and New York has 4,726 miles of interstate pipe installed.
-
Pipeline and Storage (Natural Gas Storage):
- The global natural gas storage market was valued at $10.71 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $14.97 billion by 2032. North America accounted for 45% of this global market in 2025. Specifically, Pennsylvania has the fourth-largest natural gas storage capacity in the U.S. at about 763 billion cubic feet (Bcf). New York has 226 Bcf of underground natural gas storage.
-
Gathering (Natural Gas Processing and Pipeline Gathering Facilities):
- A direct addressable market size in USD specifically for natural gas gathering facilities in the Appalachian region was not explicitly available in the provided search results. However, gathering is an integral part of the broader natural gas pipeline infrastructure market. The Appalachian Basin's natural gas production, which relies on gathering facilities, averaged 35.8 Bcf/d in 2025.
-
Utility (Natural Gas Sales and Transportation Services):
- The Natural Gas Distribution industry in New York is estimated to be $5.5 billion in 2026. New York has over 4.5 million natural gas customers, consuming approximately 1,400 Bcf of natural gas annually (as of 2022).
- The Natural Gas Distribution industry in Pennsylvania is estimated to be $10.0 billion in 2026. Pennsylvania has over 3.1 million natural gas customers who consumed 1,873 Bcf of natural gas in 2023. The average daily delivery of natural gas to all consumers in Pennsylvania from January to October 2024 was 4.8 Bcf/day.
AI Analysis | Feedback
National Fuel Gas (NFG) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and favorable market dynamics:
- Exploration and Production (E&P) Segment Growth and Capital Efficiency: The company expects increased natural gas production, particularly from its Eastern Development Area (EDA), with projections of 440-455 Bcf for fiscal 2026, representing a 6% increase at the midpoint year-over-year. This growth is supported by continued improvements in capital efficiency, lower unit operating costs, and strong well performance, enhancing profitability in its upstream operations.
- Pipeline and Storage Segment Expansion Projects: Significant infrastructure expansion projects, including the Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral, are key strategic initiatives. The Shippingport Lateral Project, designed to deliver natural gas to a power station and a new co-located data center, is expected to generate approximately $15 million in new annual revenues with a targeted in-service date in late calendar 2026. The Tioga Pathway Project is also on track for a similar in-service date. These projects are anticipated to drive meaningful rate base growth.
- Utility Segment Expansion through Acquisition: A major driver of future growth is the acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio gas utility business for $2.62 billion, which is expected to effectively double NFG's regulated rate base. This acquisition is targeted to close in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026 and will enhance the utility's scale and long-term dividend growth potential.
- Favorable Natural Gas Price Realizations: The company anticipates improved natural gas prices in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. Along with a disciplined hedging strategy, higher realized natural gas prices are expected to positively impact revenue and cash flows within the Exploration and Production segment.
- Increased Gathering Throughput: Driven by the expanding production from Seneca Resources, the Gathering segment is projected to see continued increases in throughput volumes. This growing demand for gathering services directly correlates with the upstream production growth, contributing to the company's overall revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In March 2024, National Fuel Gas Company authorized a share repurchase program of up to $200 million of its common stock, with a target to complete the program by the end of fiscal 2025.
- During fiscal year 2024, the company repurchased $65 million of common stock as part of its $200 million share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- National Fuel Gas Co.'s shares outstanding saw small fluctuations: a 0.36% increase in 2023 (91.91 million shares), a 0.34% increase in 2022 (91.57 million shares), and a 0.28% increase in 2021 (91.26 million shares). In 2024, shares outstanding decreased by 1.23% to 90.77 million, likely due to repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- National Fuel is undertaking a planned acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio gas utility business for $2.62 billion, which is targeted to close in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2026. This acquisition is expected to double the Utility segment's rate base, increasing scale and balancing the business mix.
- The company enhanced its natural gas acreage portfolio in the Appalachian region through several strategic acquisitions over the past few years, which has allowed it to focus on its prolific Eastern Development Area (EDA) for its upstream and gathering businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2026, consolidated capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $955 million to $1,065 million, consistent with fiscal 2024. The Seneca (Exploration and Production) segment is expected to account for $495 million to $525 million, and NFG Midstream for $95 million to $110 million.
- In fiscal 2025, capital expenditures for the Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment decreased by $40 million, or 6%, despite a 9% increase in natural gas production.
- In fiscal years 2024 and 2023, capital expenditures across segments focused on system modernization, reliability, safety, and emissions reduction. Specifically, the Pipeline and Storage segment invested in additions, improvements, and replacements to its transmission and gas storage systems. The Gathering segment expanded its Tioga, Clermont, and Trout Run gathering systems, including new in-field pipelines and centralized station facilities. The Utility segment primarily directed expenditures toward main and service line improvements and replacements, as well as main extensions.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SRE | Sempra | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -4.0% |
| 06302022 | NFG | National Fuel Gas | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -19.6% | -23.1% |
| 03312020 | NFG | National Fuel Gas | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.8% | 39.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 751 |
| FCF LTM | -180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -32 |
| CFO LTM | 854 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 962 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 16.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 2,645 | 2,814 | 2,508 | 2,286 | 1,979 |
| Pipeline and Storage | 2,446 | 2,427 | 2,395 | 2,296 | 2,205 |
| Utility | 2,399 | 2,248 | 2,299 | 2,148 | 2,068 |
| Gathering | 987 | 913 | 879 | 838 | 945 |
| All Other | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 114 |
| Corporate and Intersegment Eliminations | -163 | -127 | -186 | -107 | -346 |
| Total | 8,320 | 8,280 | 7,896 | 7,465 | 6,965 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $89.49 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/01/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $90.68 | $85.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.3% | 5.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.9% | 19.7% |
| Downside Capture | -0.11 | -0.02 |
| Upside Capture | 50.75 | 17.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Up Beta | -0.67 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| Down Beta | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.40 | -0.11 | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| Up Capture | 10% | 28% | 42% | 15% | 17% | 16% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 64 | 131 | 402 |
| Down Capture | -41% | -61% | -54% | 9% | 4% | 45% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 18 | 27 | 62 | 121 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFG | 20.0% | 19.7% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 23.3% | 14.2% | 1.25 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 4.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | 19.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 25.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 4.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFG | 15.9% | 22.1% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.4% | 17.2% | 0.46 | 54.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 13.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 30.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 49.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 13.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFG | 10.0% | 24.0% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.0% | 19.2% | 0.45 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 45.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 29.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 50.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 9.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.8% | 0.1% | 2.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 2.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -2.3% | -2.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -1.7% | -1.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 7.4% | 20.3% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -5.2% | -2.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 7.6 | 7.85 | 8.1 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.85 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Consolidated Effective Tax Rate | 25.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Consolidated Capital Expenditures | 955.00 Mil | 1.01 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.01 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Production | 440.00 Bil | 447.50 Bil | 455.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 447.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 7.6 | 7.85 | 8.1 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Consolidated Effective Tax Rate | 25.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Consolidated Capital Expenditures | 955.00 Mil | 1.01 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.01 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 NYMEX natural gas price | 3.75 | ||||||
| 2026 Appalachian basin spot price | 2.85 | ||||||
| 2026 Production | 440.00 Bil | 447.50 Bil | 455.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 447.50 Bil for 2026 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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