Duke Energy (DUK)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $127.8 | Market Cap: $99.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Duke Energy (DUK)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $127.8Market Cap: $99.6 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% Key risksDUK key risks include [1] significant liabilities and regulatory challenges related to coal ash disposal, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Key risksDUK key risks include [1] significant liabilities and regulatory challenges related to coal ash disposal, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Duke Energy (DUK) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Outperformance and Upgraded Guidance. Duke Energy reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.99 in fiscal Q3 2026, a 10% increase from $1.81 in the prior-year period, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.88. Quarterly revenue of $9.104 billion also exceeded expectations of $8.91 billion. Following these strong results, the company narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70-$6.80, expecting to finish near the top end, and reaffirmed its long-term EPS growth rate of 5%-7% through 2030, anticipating to achieve the top half of that range starting in 2028.
2. Accelerated Electricity Demand, Particularly from Data Centers. The company experienced robust retail electricity load growth of 2% in fiscal Q3 2026, marking its strongest quarterly growth since 2022. This increase was driven by strong residential customer growth and rising demand from advanced manufacturing and data centers in its service territories. Duke Energy projects a 3%-4% load growth over the remainder of its five-year plan, with 5.2 gigawatts of data center load currently under construction.
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Duke Energy (DUK) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Outperformance and Upgraded Guidance. Duke Energy reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.99 in fiscal Q3 2026, a 10% increase from $1.81 in the prior-year period, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.88. Quarterly revenue of $9.104 billion also exceeded expectations of $8.91 billion. Following these strong results, the company narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70-$6.80, expecting to finish near the top end, and reaffirmed its long-term EPS growth rate of 5%-7% through 2030, anticipating to achieve the top half of that range starting in 2028.
2. Accelerated Electricity Demand, Particularly from Data Centers. The company experienced robust retail electricity load growth of 2% in fiscal Q3 2026, marking its strongest quarterly growth since 2022. This increase was driven by strong residential customer growth and rising demand from advanced manufacturing and data centers in its service territories. Duke Energy projects a 3%-4% load growth over the remainder of its five-year plan, with 5.2 gigawatts of data center load currently under construction.
3. Progress on Strategic Capital Plan and Favorable Regulatory Outcomes. Duke Energy is actively executing a $103 billion five-year capital plan aimed at critical infrastructure investments to meet growing customer demand and support generation expansion. During this period, the company reached comprehensive settlements in its Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress rate cases in North Carolina, with orders expected by mid-November 2026 and new rates effective January 2027. These regulatory successes provide clarity and a stable foundation for future earnings.
4. Accelerated Investment from Brookfield. Brookfield plans to accelerate $1 billion of its previously scheduled investment from 2028 to December 2026, with the remaining $2 billion to be funded in 2027. This acceleration of capital is considered accretive in the current rising interest rate environment, further bolstering Duke Energy's financial position.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.8% change in DUK stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.34 | 127.78 | 2.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,166 | 33,812 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 15.9% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.8 | 18.5 | -1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 778 | 780 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DUK | 2.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | -14.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | -2.8% | 77.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.4% change in DUK stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.32 | 127.78 | 0.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,237 | 33,812 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 15.9% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 18.5 | -7.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 777 | 780 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DUK | 0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -25.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | -7.4% | 80.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.4% change in DUK stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.09 | 127.78 | 6.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,271 | 33,812 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 15.9% | 2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.2 | 18.5 | -3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 777 | 780 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DUK | 6.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -22.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | -1.2% | 77.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 60.9% change in DUK stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 238.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.40 | 127.78 | 60.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,047 | 33,812 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 15.9% | 238.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.7 | 18.5 | -58.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 771 | 780 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 60.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DUK | 60.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | -5.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 56.9% | 73.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DUK Return | 19% | 2% | -2% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 74% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -0% | -13% | 18% | 18% | 12% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DUK Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 62% | 50% | 60% | 60% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DUK Max Drawdown | -10% | -24% | -17% | -12% | -11% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -27% | -27% | -13% | -13% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, SO, D, AEP, EXC. See DUK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DUK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.8% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 244 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Duke Energy's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DUK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Duke Energy's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Duke Energy (DUK)
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is a major diversified energy company primarily focused on delivering essential power and gas services across the United States. Its operations are organized into three main segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. This structure allows Duke Energy to serve a broad base of residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
The core of Duke Energy's business lies in its regulated utility segments. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 8.2 million customers across six states in the Southeast and Midwest regions, utilizing a diverse portfolio of generation sources including nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, and renewable energy. Simultaneously, the Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to about 1.6 million customers, primarily in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky, also owning and operating pipeline transmission and storage facilities.
Complementing its traditional utility services, Duke Energy’s Commercial Renewables segment acquires, develops, owns, and operates non-regulated wind, solar, and battery storage projects. This segment provides renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, municipalities, and corporate customers across 22 states. Through these combined efforts, Duke Energy acts as a comprehensive energy provider, supplying both conventional and renewable energy solutions across a significant portion of the U.S. market.
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Duke Energy is like the AT&T of electricity and natural gas, providing essential power and fuel to millions of homes and businesses across several states, and actively expanding into renewable energy like wind and solar.
Alternatively, it's like the Union Pacific Railroad for energy infrastructure, owning vast networks of power lines and gas pipelines across the Southeast and Midwest, while also developing a significant portfolio of wind and solar power plants.
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- Electricity Supply: Generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers.
- Natural Gas Distribution: Delivers natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation customers.
- Renewable Energy Generation: Develops, owns, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects for various customers.
- Energy Storage Services: Provides non-regulated battery storage solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) primarily sells electricity and natural gas directly to a large base of end-users within its regulated service territories across the Carolinas, Florida, the Midwest, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky.
The company serves millions of direct customers, which can be categorized as follows:
- Residential Customers: This category includes individual households and families that consume electricity and natural gas for personal use in their homes.
- Commercial Customers: This category encompasses various businesses and organizations, such as offices, retail stores, restaurants, healthcare facilities, and small to medium-sized enterprises, that utilize electricity and natural gas for their operational needs.
- Industrial Customers: This category refers to large-scale manufacturing facilities, industrial plants, and other major enterprises that require substantial amounts of electricity and natural gas for their production processes and operations.
In addition to these direct end-users, Duke Energy's Electric Utilities and Infrastructure and Commercial Renewables segments also engage in wholesale sales of electricity and renewable energy services to other entities, including municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, load-serving entities, and corporate customers.
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Harry K. Sideris, President and Chief Executive Officer
Harry Sideris assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Duke Energy on April 1, 2025. A 29-year veteran of Duke Energy and its predecessor companies, Sideris began his career in the energy industry in 1996 at Carolina Power & Light (CP&L), which later became Progress Energy and then merged with Duke Energy in 2012. He has held numerous leadership positions within the company, including president of Duke Energy, executive vice president of customer experience, solutions and services, president of Duke Energy Florida, and vice president of environmental, health and safety. Under his leadership, Duke Energy is focused on critical infrastructure investments, customer service, and advancing the company's climate goals through a significant regulated capital plan.
Brian D. Savoy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian Savoy serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Duke Energy, a position he assumed in September 2022. He is responsible for the company’s financial operations, including the controller's office, treasury, tax, risk management, and insurance. Savoy also oversees corporate development and enterprise strategy, focusing on the transformation of the company's generation and transmission assets to achieve net-zero carbon emissions goals. He joined Duke Energy in 2001 and played a key role in the successful wind-down and disposition of Duke Energy North America in 2005. His previous roles include chief accounting officer and controller, chief transformation and administrative officer, and executive vice president and chief strategy and commercial officer. Before joining Duke Energy, Savoy was a manager with the international accounting firm Deloitte & Touche.
Scott B. Batson, Executive Vice President and Chief Power Grid Officer
Scott Batson is the Executive Vice President and Chief Power Grid Officer at Duke Energy. With over 40 years of experience in the energy field, all within Duke Energy and its predecessors, Batson joined the company in January 1985 as a junior engineer at Oconee Nuclear Station. He has held various leadership positions, including operations shift manager, maintenance manager, engineering manager, and plant manager at Oconee, and plant manager of Catawba Nuclear Station. He also served as senior vice president of nuclear operations and chief distribution officer. In March 2024, his responsibilities expanded to include oversight of the electric transmission system, in addition to the electric distribution system.
Kodwo Ghartey-Tagoe, Executive Vice President and CEO, Duke Energy Carolinas and Natural Gas Business
Kodwo Ghartey-Tagoe holds the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer for Duke Energy Carolinas, and leads the Natural Gas Business Unit. Previously, he served as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for Duke Energy. In August 2022, he also took on responsibilities for the Administrative Services organization.
Louis E. Renjel, Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Duke Energy Florida and Midwest; Chief Corporate Affairs Officer
Louis Renjel serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Duke Energy Florida and Midwest, and also as Chief Corporate Affairs Officer.
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- Regulatory and Policy Shifts Related to Decarbonization and Climate Change: Duke Energy operates a substantial portfolio of generation assets, including those powered by coal and natural gas. The ongoing and accelerating push for decarbonization through environmental regulations, stricter emissions standards, and potential carbon pricing mechanisms at federal and state levels poses a significant risk. These shifts could lead to increased operational costs, necessitate substantial capital expenditures for early retirement or conversion of existing fossil fuel plants, and require significant investment in cleaner energy sources and infrastructure to meet evolving mandates and avoid stranded assets.
- Significant Capital Expenditure Requirements for Infrastructure Modernization and Energy Transition: As a large utility serving millions of customers across multiple states, Duke Energy faces continuous and substantial capital demands. This includes the need to maintain and upgrade its extensive, aging electric transmission and distribution infrastructure and natural gas pipelines. Furthermore, the broader energy transition necessitates significant investment in grid modernization, the integration of renewable energy sources, energy storage solutions, and infrastructure hardening to enhance reliability and resilience against extreme weather events. These capital-intensive endeavors are critical for continued operation but represent a material financial outlay.
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Clear emerging threats for Duke Energy (DUK) include:
- Decentralized Electricity Generation and Storage: The rapidly declining costs and increasing efficiency of distributed energy resources, particularly rooftop solar panels combined with battery storage systems, empower customers to generate and store their own electricity. This trend directly reduces customer reliance on Duke Energy's centralized grid for power, leading to decreased demand for electricity sales, potential underutilization of existing generation and transmission infrastructure, and a fundamental shift in the traditional utility business model. This mirrors the disruption seen with Netflix providing an alternative to Blockbuster's centralized distribution.
- Electrification of Building Systems: Driven by climate goals, evolving building codes, and technological advancements in electric alternatives like highly efficient heat pumps, there is a clear emerging movement to replace natural gas appliances (for heating, cooking, and water heating) in homes and businesses with electric versions. This trend directly threatens Duke Energy's Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment by reducing the demand for natural gas distribution, potentially leading to declining customer usage and revenue, and raising questions about the long-term viability and asset utilization of its natural gas pipeline network. This is akin to a new technology making a previous one less essential, much like the iPhone's impact on BlackBerry.
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Electric Utilities and Infrastructure
The U.S. power market, which encompasses electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, was valued at approximately USD 397.67 billion in 2026.Gas Utilities and Infrastructure
The natural gas distribution market in the U.S. was valued at approximately USD 225.5 billion in 2026.Commercial Renewables
The U.S. renewable energy market, including wind and solar projects, was valued at an estimated USD 156.3 billion in 2026.AI Analysis | Feedback
Duke Energy (DUK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Significant Capital Investments in Grid Modernization and Clean Energy Transition: Duke Energy plans substantial capital expenditures, with a five-year capital plan increasing to $103 billion (2026-2030), an 18% increase from previous plans. These investments are directed towards electric grid upgrades, cleaner generation sources such as natural gas, nuclear, renewables, and energy storage, and modernizing infrastructure. This ambitious investment strategy is projected to drive earnings base growth and support the energy transition.
- Customer Growth and Economic Development, Particularly from Data Centers: The company anticipates revenue growth from a steadily expanding customer base across its service territories in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States. A significant driver within this category is economic development, especially the increasing demand from data centers, with Duke Energy reporting approximately 4.5 GW of Data Center Electric Service Agreements. This robust demand from the artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing sectors is a key component of its growth trajectory.
- Favorable Regulatory Outcomes and Rate Adjustments: As a regulated utility, Duke Energy's revenue growth is supported by favorable regulatory constructs and the ability to recover investments through customer ratemaking mechanisms. Recent and expected updated rates in its various jurisdictions, including North Carolina (with multi-year rate plans), Duke Energy Kentucky, and anticipated updates for DEC South Carolina, are crucial for supporting its balance sheet and minimizing costs to customers, thereby contributing to revenue growth.
- Increased Electricity Demand from Residential and Commercial Customers: Beyond large-scale economic development projects, Duke Energy projects growth from overall robust electricity demand from existing residential and commercial/industrial customers. Analysts forecast that U.S. electricity consumption will reach record levels in 2026, further bolstering Duke Energy's revenue prospects.
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Share Repurchases
- Duke Energy has not engaged in significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years; quarterly stock buybacks were reported as 0.00 for December 31, 2025.
- The company's shares outstanding have shown slight increases from 2022 to 2025, suggesting share issuance rather than repurchases.
Share Issuance
- Duke Energy announced plans in March 2026 to sell up to $6 billion of common stock through an at-the-market equity distribution program to raise capital for grid and generation investments.
- The company plans to issue approximately $6.5 billion in equity between 2025 and 2029, with $1 billion targeted for 2025 alone, to support its capital plan.
- Duke Energy anticipates issuing $10 billion of equity between 2027 and 2030 to fund future growth initiatives.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2025, Duke Energy entered into an agreement with Brookfield for the latter to acquire a 19.7% indirect equity interest in Duke Energy Florida for an aggregate amount of $6 billion.
- The initial closing of the Brookfield investment is scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a payment of $2.8 billion, followed by subsequent investments totaling $3.2 billion through June 2028.
- This $6 billion investment is intended to bolster Duke Energy's financial position, strengthen its balance sheet, and fund ongoing capital needs for its energy modernization strategy.
Outbound Investments
- Duke Energy sold its Tennessee natural gas business for $2.48 billion, with $1.5 billion in net proceeds earmarked to support its capital plan.
- The company participated in a $400 million Department of Energy cost-share initiative aimed at accelerating the deployment of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
- No acquisitions were reported by Duke Energy for the period between 2020 and 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Duke Energy's five-year capital plan (2026-2030) has been increased to $103 billion, an 18% increase from previous projections, making it the largest regulated capital plan in the industry.
- The company's capital expenditures were approximately $15 billion for the full year 2025.
- A significant portion of these capital expenditures is focused on grid infrastructure and increasing power generation, including investments in clean energy projects like renewables and energy storage, grid modernization, and capacity expansion to meet demand from sources such as AI data centers.
Peer Outperformance in Electric Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | Duke Energy | 5.0% | 18.5x | 6.7% | 60.2% | 52.4% | — |
| VST | Vistra | 6.7% | 18.9x | -32.0% | 268.4% | 563.3% | +511pp |
| ETR | Entergy | 3.7% | 25.2x | 18.4% | 149.6% | 155.1% | +103pp |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 7.1% | 20.5x | 9.1% | 78.8% | 78.1% | +26pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -47.3% | 88.7% | 139.1% | NRG 177% · OKLO 139% · TAC 26% |
| Electric Utilities ← | 24 | 5.7% | 51.9% | 50.0% | VST 563% · ETR 155% · AEP 78% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 6.3% | 60.0% | 49.8% | NI 105% · PNW 103% · MDU 101% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 5.9% | 63.9% | 41.8% | ATO 109% · SR 74% · NJR 67% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 13.3% | 7.5% | -5.5% | WTRG 12% · AWR 6% · AWK -1% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -70.4% | -75.1% | -90.0% | ORA 26% · CWEN 18% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 84.2 |
| Rev LTM | 27,382 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,670 |
| FCF LTM | -4,460 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,117 |
| CFO LTM | 9,028 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,356 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 84.2 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.6 |
| P/EBIT | 10.8 |
| P/E | 19.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.6 |
| Total Yield | 8.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Utilities and Infrastructure | 29,357 | 28,093 | 26,921 | 26,024 | 22,603 |
| Gas Utilities and Infrastructure | 3,003 | 2,390 | 2,266 | 2,840 | 2,112 |
| Other | 165 | 157 | 134 | 122 | 113 |
| Eliminations | -288 | -283 | -261 | -218 | -207 |
| Total | 32,237 | 30,357 | 29,060 | 28,768 | 24,621 |
| $ Mil | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franchised Electric | 1,403 | 1,608 | 1,631 | 1,704 | |
| Natural Gas Transmission | 1,317 | 1,174 | 608 | 534 | 627 |
| International Energy | 210 | -102 | 286 | 331 | |
| Field Services | 192 | 126 | 336 | 296 | 144 |
| Other Operations | 153 | -406 | -9 | ||
| Duke Energy North America | -3,341 | 165 | |||
| Duke Ventures | 204 | 183 | 563 | ||
| Other Energy Services | 63 | -13 | -61 | -94 | |
| North American Wholesale Energy | 1,351 | 418 | |||
| Electric Operations | 856 | ||||
| Global Asset Development | 181 | ||||
| Real Estate Operations | 176 | ||||
| Trading and Marketing | 70 | ||||
| Total | -66 | 2,832 | 4,382 | 3,785 | 1,951 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Utilities and Infrastructure | 5,337 | 4,770 | 4,223 | 3,929 |
| Gas Utilities and Infrastructure | 559 | 454 | 519 | 468 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Other | -985 | -829 | -616 | -737 |
| Discontinued operations | -1,215 | |||
| Total | 4,911 | 4,395 | 4,126 | 2,444 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Utilities and Infrastructure | 172,427 | 164,010 | 155,449 | 152,104 | 143,841 |
| Gas Utilities and Infrastructure | 18,989 | 18,131 | 17,349 | 16,411 | 15,179 |
| Other | 4,320 | 4,202 | 4,095 | 9,571 | 10,567 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 195,736 | 186,343 | 176,893 | 178,086 | 169,587 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $127.78 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 99.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $119.83 | $123.33 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| Downside Capture | -44.25 | -40.44 |
| Upside Capture | -17.90 | -24.73 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -16.8% | -22.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.05 | -0.43 | -0.38 | -0.46 | -0.33 | -0.07 |
| Up Beta | 0.64 | 0.18 | 0.03 | -0.30 | -0.28 | -0.03 |
| Down Beta | -1.04 | -1.36 | -1.34 | -0.45 | -0.27 | -0.04 |
| Up Capture | -19% | -2% | -15% | -34% | -17% | -0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 63 | 130 | 400 |
| Down Capture | -198% | -53% | -36% | -72% | -71% | -69% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 34 | 63 | 121 | 352 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DUK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | 6.9% | 16.9% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -0.9% | 15.7% | -0.26 | 77.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | -22.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 49.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | -16.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DUK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.3% | 17.4% | 0.32 | 82.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 17.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 13.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 53.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 0.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DUK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | 9.4% | 20.5% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.3% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 88.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 39.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 13.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 63.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 5.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -0.7% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.6% | -2.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 7.5% |
| 11/7/2025 | -0.6% | 0.1% | -7.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -8.0% | -5.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 1.1% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.7% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 2.9% | 4.0% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -8.0% | -7.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -0.7% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.6% | -2.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 7.5% |
| 11/7/2025 | -0.6% | 0.1% | -7.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -8.0% | -5.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.4% | -2.1% | 4.4% |
| 8/8/2023 | 0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.1% | -3.1% | -5.2% |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.6% | 1.8% | -2.5% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.5% | 1.7% | 8.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.5% | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.5% | -0.9% | 1.8% |
| 2/10/2022 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 5/10/2021 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.5% | -3.5% | -1.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | 0.7% | 4.0% | -1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 1.1% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.7% | -0.9% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 2.9% | 4.0% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -8.0% | -7.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.7 | 6.75 | 6.8 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 6.68 for 2026 | |
| 2030 Long-Term Adjusted EPS Growth Rate | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026-2030 | |
| 2031 Generation Capacity Additions (GW) | Reported | 16 | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.55 | 6.68 | 6.8 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.68 for 2026 | ||
| 2026-2030 Adjusted EPS Growth Rate | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2030 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.55 | 6.68 | 6.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.68 for 2026 | |
| 2030 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2030 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.55 | 6.68 | 6.8 | 6.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.3 for 2025 | |
| 2030 Earnings Base Growth | Reported | 9.6% | ||||||
| 2030 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 6.0% for 2029 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titone, Bonnie B | EVP, Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 128.00 | 2,900 | 371,200 | 3,342,208 | Form |
| 2 | Renjel, Louis E | EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 125.15 | 3,500 | 438,025 | 2,680,087 | Form |
| 3 | Sideris, Harry K | President, CEO | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 124.37 | 20,000 | 2,487,400 | 11,952,206 | Form |
| 4 | Repko, Regis T | SVP, System Planning&Construct | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 131.00 | 663 | 86,853 | 851,631 | Form |
| 5 | Ghartey-Tagoe, Kodwo | EVP&CEO DECarolinas&NatGasBus | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 131.57 | 18,246 | 2,400,653 | 6,186,097 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titone, Bonnie B | EVP, Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 128.00 | 2,900 | 371,200 | 3,342,208 | Form |
| 2 | Renjel, Louis E | EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 125.15 | 3,500 | 438,025 | 2,680,087 | Form |
| 3 | Sideris, Harry K | President, CEO | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 124.37 | 20,000 | 2,487,400 | 11,952,206 | Form |
| 4 | Repko, Regis T | SVP, System Planning&Construct | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 131.00 | 663 | 86,853 | 851,631 | Form |
| 5 | Ghartey-Tagoe, Kodwo | EVP&CEO DECarolinas&NatGasBus | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 131.57 | 18,246 | 2,400,653 | 6,186,097 | Form |
| 6 | Repko, Regis T | SVP, System Planning&Construct | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 127.86 | 962 | 123,001 | 498,143 | Form |
| 7 | Savoy, Brian D | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 127.69 | 12,000 | 1,532,320 | 7,037,433 | Form |
| 8 | Repko, Regis T | SVP, System Planning&Construct | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 127.18 | 4,376 | 556,540 | 666,678 | Form |
| 9 | Renjel, Louis E | EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 127.67 | 6,800 | 868,156 | 2,809,634 | Form |
| 10 | Glenn, Robert Alexander | EVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 123.80 | 8,200 | 1,015,160 | 1,407,235 | Form |
| 11 | Renjel, Louis E | EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 125.65 | 800 | 100,520 | 2,554,716 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
DUK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Duke Energy is executing a 'once-in-a-generation' build-out to meet structurally higher electricity demand. Its $103 billion capital plan is supported by a 15.4 gigawatt pipeline of new projects. While this plan pressures the balance sheet, management's strong record of regulatory success and meeting financial targets provides confidence in their ability to fund and execute this transformation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Regulated Utility(Rate Base * Allowed Return on Equity) + Pass-through Costs Growth in the regulated rate base through successful execution of the capital plan, combined with constructive regulatory outcomes in rate cases that allow for timely cost recovery and approved returns.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests Duke is successfully executing a major pivot to growth, driven by unprecedented electricity demand.
- Management projects a 3% to 4% long-term load growth outlook.
- A 15.4 gigawatt late-stage pipeline of large load customers is expected to be secured by mid-2027.
- 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was narrowed to $6.70-$6.80, with results expected near the top end.
- Weather-normalized demand increased 2% in Q3 2026, the strongest quarterly growth since 2022.
PRIMARY RISK
The massive scale of the capital plan creates risk that regulators will block rate increases or that financing will become constrained, impairing returns.
- The company has a $103 billion 5-year capital plan requiring significant external funding.
- Net debt stands at $93.3 billion, or 5.23 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- Free cash flow is negative at $-5.2 billion over the last twelve months.
- The company plans to issue $10 billion in common stock from 2027-2030 to fund growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Secured Large Load / Data Center ESAs (Electric Service Agreements) | 7.8 gigawatts of secured Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) with data center customers, as of the second quarter of 2026. - Decelerating | Management noted in the latest earnings call that negotiations for these complex contracts are taking longer but expressed confidence in converting its full 15.4 gigawatt late-stage pipeline by the first half of 2027. |
| Weather-Normalized Load Growth | 2% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026. - Accelerating | The growth reflects both steady residential customer additions, which are running at nearly 2%, and the initial ramp-up of new advanced manufacturing loads. |
| Long-term Load Growth Outlook | 3% to 4% (As of Q3 2026 Earnings Call) | Indicates the expected increase in electricity demand across the company's service territories, a primary driver for new capital investment and future revenue growth. |
| Secured Data Center Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) | 7.6 gigawatts (As of Q1 2026 Earnings Call) | Quantifies the amount of future large-scale demand contractually secured from data center customers, providing high confidence in a significant portion of the company's load growth forecast. |
| FFO to Debt | 14.8% (2025) | A key credit metric measuring cash flow relative to debt. The company targets 14.5% for 2026 and 15% long-term, indicating a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund its capital plan. |
Visible Growth Pipeline vs. Execution Risk
BULL VIEW
The 15.4 GW pipeline and accelerating underlying demand provide high visibility into multi-year growth, which strong management execution will convert into earnings.
CORE TENSION
Can the de-risked demand from the 15.4 GW pipeline justify the balance sheet strain of a $103 billion build-out, especially as new contract signings have recently slowed?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Management's confidence in converting the full pipeline by mid-2027 and the stock's outperformance on earnings suggest the market is focused on the long-term demand.
BEAR VIEW
The recent slowdown in new contract signings and immense financing needs for the $103 billion plan create significant risk of delays, cost overruns, or shareholder dilution.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
between November 15 and December 15, 2026 | Indiana Multi-Year Rate Plan Filing Watch: Duke Energy Indiana required to file its first Multi-Year Rate Plan (MYRP) with state regulators. |
by December 31, 2026 | Equity Forward Settlement Watch: Equity forwards executed in 2025 are expected to settle. |
January 1, 2027 | Carolinas Utilities Merger Effective Watch: Proposed combination of Duke's two electric utilities in the Carolinas has a targeted effective date. |
January of 2027 | New North Carolina Rates Effective Watch: New customer rates from North Carolina rate cases are expected to become effective. |
1/25/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Across on Growth Watch: NEE's commentary on data center demand, capital spending, and regulatory trends in the Southeast, which could influence sentiment for DUK. |
2/8/2027 | Capital Project Execution and Cost Pressures Watch: Updates on project timelines, budgets, and capital spending in the Q4 earnings report. Any announced delays or cost overruns would be a negative catalyst. |
2/8/2027 | Duke Energy Earnings Report Watch: Duke Energy is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
mid-November | Adverse North Carolina Rate Case Rulings Watch: Final orders from the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) on the DEC and DEP rate case settlements. |
mid-November | North Carolina Rate Case Orders Watch: North Carolina utility commission expected to issue orders on Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress rate case settlements. |
this December | Brookfield Investment Acceleration Watch: Brookfield plans to accelerate a $1 billion investment in Duke Energy Florida. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Third Quarter Earnings and Guidance Update Details: The company reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.99 and narrowed its 2026 guidance range to $6.70 to $6.80, expecting to finish near the top end. | +0.4% $129.59 -> $130.08 |
2026-10-07 | Data Center Customer Cost Agreement Details: Press reports in October stated the company reached an agreement with the North Carolina Public Staff and major tech companies to protect existing customers from data center costs. | +1.0% $115.66 -> $116.84 |
2026-08-04 | Second Quarter Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.43 and reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80. The stock had a -1.0% two-day reaction. | -0.8% $123.20 -> $122.27 |
2026-07-17 | North Carolina Rate Case Settlement Details: Press reports in July stated Duke Energy Carolinas reached an agreement with the North Carolina Public Staff and other stakeholders on its rate case. | -0.2% $125.01 -> $124.75 |
2026-06-05 | Department of Energy Grant Funding Details: Press reports in June stated the DOE announced grants for company projects, bringing total federal funding to nearly $96 million to help keep customer costs down. | +0.2% $120.76 -> $120.99 |
2026-05-05 | First Quarter Earnings and Strategic Closings Details: The company announced Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.93. It also closed the first tranche of Brookfield's investment in Duke Energy Florida for $2.8 billion and the sale of its Tennessee gas business for $2.5 billion. | -1.5% $125.26 -> $123.38 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: DUK trades at roughly 18% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NEE - NextEra Energy
Best-in-Class OperatorNextEra offers higher profitability, with a trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 29.0% versus Duke's 27.4%, and generates significant positive free cash flow.
SO - Southern Company
Greater Growth ExposureSouthern Company has secured a larger portfolio of new large load contracts, at 21 gigawatts, offering a more scaled play on the same data center demand theme.
A regulated utility transforming into a growth-oriented infrastructure company, capitalizing on surging power demand in high-growth U.S. regions.
Duke Energy is no longer a slow-growth utility. It is in a 'once-in-a-generation build cycle' to meet accelerating electricity demand from data centers, advanced manufacturing, and population in-migration in the Southeast. The company is executing a massive $103 billion, five-year capital plan to build new generation and grid infrastructure. This investment is expected to drive strong annual growth in its earnings base, with earnings growth accelerating in 2028 as new large-load customers come online.
Continued announcements of new, large-scale Electric Service Agreements (ESAs); constructive outcomes in state rate cases that approve cost recovery for major capital projects; and evidence of on-schedule, on-budget execution of its generation build-out.
Adverse regulatory decisions that deny or significantly reduce rate recovery; a material slowdown in data center or economic development in its service territories; or significant cost overruns and delays in its large-scale generation construction projects.
Short-term weather variations, which can impact quarterly earnings but are generally managed through regulatory mechanisms and O&M flexibility over the full year.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of its generation expansion program and conversion of its 15.4 GW late-stage pipeline of large load customers into firm contracts, which would de-risk and potentially increase its long-term growth outlook.
Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I)
$30.2B TTM (91% of Total)What It Is
The segment provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity to approximately 8.7 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the Southeast and Midwest. It also sells electricity wholesale to municipalities and other utilities.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers pay for electricity as an essential service. They are captive customers within Duke's service territories, where the company operates as the sole supplier (with the exception of Ohio).
Competition
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I)
$3.2B TTM (9% of Total)What It Is
The segment distributes natural gas to approximately 1.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation customers in the Carolinas, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers pay for natural gas service for heating, cooking, and industrial processes. The company operates as the sole provider of natural gas service within its retail territories.
Competition
Duke Energy — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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