NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $66.54 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $66.54Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NWE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
NorthWestern Energy (NWE) experienced significant stock price movement leading up to December 4, 2025. The company's stock reached a new 52-week high of $69.23 in late November 2025. The year-to-date gain for NWE shares was approximately 23% as of November 17, 2025, with a 10% gain in the month prior.
Here are five key points explaining the stock's movement:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: NorthWestern Energy reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.75. The company's revenue also increased by 12.1% year-over-year.
2. Merger Announcement with Black Hills Energy: In August 2025, NorthWestern Energy announced a definitive agreement to merge with Black Hills Energy in an all-stock, tax-free transaction. This merger is expected to create a larger regional utility company with a pro forma market capitalization of approximately $7.8 billion and a combined enterprise value of $15.4 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NWE Return | -15% | 2% | 8% | -10% | 11% | 30% | 21% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 28% | -5% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NWE Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 67% | 52% | 50% | 47% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NWE Max Drawdown | -32% | -7% | -11% | -19% | -8% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -7% | -22% | -18% | -10% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALE, OTTR, AVA, MGEE, NEE. See NWE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NWE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1156 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ALE, OTTR, AVA, MGEE, NEE
In The Past
NorthWestern Energy's stock fell -33.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2021. A -33.8% loss requires a 51.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NWE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 08312020 | NWE | NorthWestern Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 28.5% | -5.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 08312020 | NWE | NorthWestern Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 28.5% | -5.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NorthWestern Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 73.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,535 |
| Op Inc LTM | 344 |
| FCF LTM | -27 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 33 |
| CFO LTM | 410 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 423 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.1 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 9.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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