Tearsheet

NorthWestern Energy (NWE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $65.73 | Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities

NorthWestern Energy (NWE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $65.73
Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Multi-Utilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  Key risks
NWE key risks include [1] adverse regulatory determinations in Montana that threaten the company's ability to recover costs and [2] vulnerability to energy price volatility and supply disruptions due to its reliance on market purchases.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%
8 Key risks
NWE key risks include [1] adverse regulatory determinations in Montana that threaten the company's ability to recover costs and [2] vulnerability to energy price volatility and supply disruptions due to its reliance on market purchases.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NWE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

NorthWestern Energy (NWE) experienced a significant stock movement in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. The company's 90-day share price return, as of December 18, 2025, was reported as 17.23 percent. Several key factors contributed to this positive momentum:

1. Proposed Merger with Black Hills Corp. NorthWestern Energy announced an all-stock merger with Black Hills Corp. on August 18, 2025, aiming to create a premier regional regulated electric and natural gas utility company. This merger, with a pro forma market capitalization of approximately $7.8 billion, is anticipated to enhance the combined entity's scale, financial strength, and business line diversity, enabling it to better meet rising energy demands and compete for large data center customers. Applications for regulatory approval were filed in October 2025.

2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. The company reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates for both earnings and revenue. NorthWestern Energy's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79 marked an increase of over 21% year-over-year, while its revenue reached $387 million, growing by 12% compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NWE Return-15%2%8%-10%11%28%20%
Peers Return-9%25%1%0%19%16%59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NWE Win Rate50%50%58%50%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate48%62%57%55%57%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NWE Max Drawdown-32%-7%-11%-19%-8%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-7%-16%-18%-11%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BKH, MDU, XEL, AVA, OTTR. See NWE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNWES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven302 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-52.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,156 days1,480 days

Compare to ALE, OTTR, AVA, MGEE, NEE


In The Past

NorthWestern Energy's stock fell -33.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2021. A -33.8% loss requires a 51.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NorthWestern Energy (NWE)

Better Bets than NorthWestern Energy (NWE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NWE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
NWE_8312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312020NWENorthWestern EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%28.5%-5.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
NWE_8312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312020NWENorthWestern EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%28.5%-5.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NorthWestern Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NWEBKHMDUXELAVAOTTRMedian
NameNorthWes.Black Hi.MDU Reso.Xcel Ene.Avista Otter Ta. 
Mkt Price65.7470.5919.3973.1438.7986.0468.16
Mkt Cap4.05.14.043.33.23.64.0
Rev LTM1,5702,2721,87714,2281,9641,2991,920
Op Inc LTM3575302782,637344345351
FCF LTM-122-105-57-5,149-23107-81
FCF 3Y Avg-12990-2-2,465-81113-41
CFO LTM4016584534,538484419469
CFO 3Y Avg4117534844,869430416457

Growth & Margins

NWEBKHMDUXELAVAOTTRMedian
NameNorthWes.Black Hi.MDU Reso.Xcel Ene.Avista Otter Ta. 
Rev Chg LTM4.9%7.0%478.2%3.4%2.1%-3.2%4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.9%-0.1%112.1%-0.8%6.4%-4.4%1.9%
Rev Chg Q12.1%7.1%8.7%7.4%2.3%-3.7%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%1.3%1.4%1.9%0.5%-1.0%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM22.8%23.3%14.8%18.5%17.5%26.5%20.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.3%21.4%-18.2%15.4%27.4%21.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.2%0.1%0.5%0.5%-0.6%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.6%29.0%24.2%31.9%24.6%32.2%27.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg27.1%32.7%-34.1%22.7%31.4%31.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.8%-4.6%-3.0%-36.2%-1.2%8.2%-3.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.5%3.6%--17.4%-4.5%8.6%-4.5%

Valuation

NWEBKHMDUXELAVAOTTRMedian
NameNorthWes.Black Hi.MDU Reso.Xcel Ene.Avista Otter Ta. 
Mkt Cap4.05.14.043.33.23.64.0
P/S2.32.02.13.41.62.62.2
P/EBIT9.78.412.817.28.79.39.5
P/E16.615.723.424.916.312.316.4
P/CFO9.06.88.710.56.38.28.5
Total Yield10.5%10.7%6.9%6.6%11.3%10.6%10.6%
Dividend Yield4.5%4.3%2.7%2.6%5.1%2.5%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.9%2.7%-0.4%-5.7%-3.1%3.5%-1.7%
D/E0.91.00.60.71.00.30.8
Net D/E0.91.00.60.71.00.20.8

Returns

NWEBKHMDUXELAVAOTTRMedian
NameNorthWes.Black Hi.MDU Reso.Xcel Ene.Avista Otter Ta. 
1M Rtn1.8%1.5%-4.5%-10.0%-5.2%5.0%-1.5%
3M Rtn18.8%21.9%23.2%1.5%8.9%4.6%13.8%
6M Rtn31.5%28.8%22.0%11.2%6.1%14.2%18.1%
12M Rtn31.7%22.8%7.8%11.0%11.1%15.6%13.4%
3Y Rtn33.8%17.2%92.8%15.9%6.9%59.8%25.5%
1M Excs Rtn1.1%0.8%-5.2%-10.8%-6.0%4.2%-2.2%
3M Excs Rtn16.3%20.1%20.0%-0.0%6.5%1.8%11.4%
6M Excs Rtn19.1%16.4%9.7%-1.2%-6.3%1.8%5.7%
12M Excs Rtn24.1%9.9%-4.9%-0.1%0.1%5.3%2.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.8%-54.8%16.8%-55.2%-63.9%-14.9%-45.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Electric1,0691,1071,052 981
Gas353371320 277
Eliminations 0   
Other 0   
Total1,4221,4781,372 1,258


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Electric175159157 145
Gas303433 42
Other-12-10-3 15
Eliminations 0   
Total194183187 202


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,672,194
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202512.6%
Average Daily Volume580,843
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.88
Basic Shares Quantity61,395,002
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20250.3%2.0%13.6%
7/31/20252.1%4.7%9.3%
4/30/2025-2.2%-2.4%-7.5%
2/13/2025-2.3%-1.1%4.9%
10/30/2024-0.8%1.3%2.5%
7/31/20240.5%-3.0%0.4%
4/26/2024-0.7%2.2%2.2%
2/15/20245.4%5.4%5.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive468
# Negative531
Median Positive1.3%3.4%5.2%
Median Negative-2.2%-2.4%-7.5%
Max Positive5.4%6.6%13.6%
Max Negative-2.3%-3.0%-7.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021