Hallador Energy (HNRG)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $10.11 | Market Cap: $476.6 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Hallador Energy (HNRG)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $10.11Market Cap: $476.6 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Coal Supply. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% Key risksHNRG key risks include [1] its heavy revenue dependence on the coal-fired Merom Generating Station, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Coal Supply. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Key risksHNRG key risks include [1] its heavy revenue dependence on the coal-fired Merom Generating Station, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Hallador Energy (HNRG) stock has lost about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hallador Energy reported a significant earnings miss for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), announced on August 10, 2026. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.32 per share, which was substantially worse than the consensus analyst estimate of a $0.12 loss per share, representing a 166.67% negative earnings surprise. This underperformance was attributed to a 60-day planned outage at its Merom Generating Station, coupled with unplanned downtime and increased purchased power costs, resulting in a negative operating cash flow of $23.9 million for the quarter, compared to a positive $11.4 million in the prior year's fiscal Q2.
2. Analyst expectations for Hallador Energy's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) indicated a significant year-over-year decline in profitability and revenue. Ahead of the estimated November 9, 2026, earnings release, analysts projected earnings per share of $0.07, an 87.27% decrease from the $0.55 per share reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue forecasts for fiscal Q3 2026 stood at $118.25 million, down from $146.85 million in the same period last year. These lowered expectations contributed to negative investor sentiment.
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Hallador Energy (HNRG) stock has lost about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hallador Energy reported a significant earnings miss for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), announced on August 10, 2026. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.32 per share, which was substantially worse than the consensus analyst estimate of a $0.12 loss per share, representing a 166.67% negative earnings surprise. This underperformance was attributed to a 60-day planned outage at its Merom Generating Station, coupled with unplanned downtime and increased purchased power costs, resulting in a negative operating cash flow of $23.9 million for the quarter, compared to a positive $11.4 million in the prior year's fiscal Q2.
2. Analyst expectations for Hallador Energy's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) indicated a significant year-over-year decline in profitability and revenue. Ahead of the estimated November 9, 2026, earnings release, analysts projected earnings per share of $0.07, an 87.27% decrease from the $0.55 per share reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue forecasts for fiscal Q3 2026 stood at $118.25 million, down from $146.85 million in the same period last year. These lowered expectations contributed to negative investor sentiment.
3. The commercial start of the company's significant Turtle Creek natural gas generation project was delayed to the second half of 2028. While Hallador Energy announced a reduction in the project's budget to below $800 million and secured up to $675 million in debt financing for it, the extended timeline likely raised concerns among investors regarding the realization of future growth and cash flow from this key expansion initiative.
4. An analyst price target for Hallador Energy was modestly lowered during the period. On October 6, 2026, Northland Securities reduced its price target for HNRG to $27 from $28, despite maintaining a "Buy" rating. This adjustment reflected a slightly dampened outlook from the analyst community, contributing to the downward pressure on the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.0% change in HNRG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.22 | 10.10 | -29.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 453 | 452 | -0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.1 | -27.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 47 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HNRG | -29.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | -2.8% | 8.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.0% change in HNRG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.53 | 10.10 | -35.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 469 | 452 | -3.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.1 | -26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 43 | 47 | -8.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HNRG | -35.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | -7.4% | 2.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -53.3% change in HNRG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.63 | 10.10 | -53.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 419 | 452 | 7.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 1.1 | -52.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 43 | 47 | -9.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -53.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HNRG | -53.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | -1.2% | 7.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.8% change in HNRG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.98 | 10.10 | -27.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 587 | 452 | -22.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 1.1 | 33.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 47 | -29.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HNRG | -27.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 56.9% | 17.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HNRG Return | 67% | 306% | -12% | 30% | 66% | -47% | 587% |
| Peers Return | 123% | 70% | 38% | 64% | 39% | -30% | 730% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HNRG Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 18% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 55% | 62% | 53% | 65% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HNRG Max Drawdown | -49% | -32% | -43% | -52% | -36% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -33% | -22% | -29% | -37% | -46% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BTU, CNR, NC, VST, NRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HNRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1263 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Hallador Energy's stock fell -24.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | HNRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1263 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2779 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Hallador Energy's stock fell -24.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hallador Energy (HNRG)
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) is primarily engaged in the production of steam coal. The company operates underground mines in Indiana, specifically Oaktown Mine 1, Oaktown Mine 2, and the Ace in the Hole mine. These operations are focused on extracting coal, which is a key energy source.
The main product offered by Hallador Energy is steam coal, which serves as a fuel for the electric power generation industry. Consequently, the company's primary customers are power plants and utilities that rely on coal to produce electricity. Hallador Energy also has a smaller segment involved in gas exploration activities within Indiana.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hallador Energy (HNRG):
- Like a regional version of Peabody Energy (BTU), focused on mining steam coal in Indiana for electricity generation.
- An upstream energy producer, similar to how a company like EOG Resources (EOG) extracts oil and gas, but Hallador focuses on mining coal in Indiana to power electric plants.
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- Steam Coal: Hallador Energy produces steam coal in Indiana, primarily for the electric power generation industry.
- Gas Exploration: The company is also involved in activities to explore for natural gas in Indiana.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hallador Energy Company primarily sells steam coal to electric power generation companies. Its major customers are:
- Duke Energy Indiana, LLC (a subsidiary of Duke Energy Corporation, symbol: DUK)
- Hoosier Energy Rural Electric Cooperative, Inc.
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Brent Bilsland, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Brent Bilsland is a visionary leader with two decades of experience in the energy sector. He was a founding investor of Sunrise Coal in 2004, which Hallador acquired in 2006. He served as President of Sunrise before advancing to President and Director at Hallador, becoming CEO in 2014 and Chairman in 2018. Before joining Hallador, he co-founded Knapper Corporation. He holds leadership positions in industry associations such as the Reliable Energy Association and the National Mining Association, and serves on the board of America's Power.
Todd Telesz, Chief Financial Officer
Todd Telesz was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Hallador Energy, effective June 23, 2025. Prior to his role at Hallador, he served as CFO of Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. since 2024. From 2021 to 2023, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Basin Electric Power Cooperative. Additionally, he spent 14 years (2007-2021) as Senior Vice President in the Power, Energy, and Utilities division at CoBank, ACB.
Heath Lovell, Chief Operating Officer
Heath Lovell was promoted to Chief Operating Officer effective March 6, 2026. He also continues to serve as President of Hallador Power Company, LLC, a position he has held since 2022, and as President of Sunrise Coal, LLC since 2024. Before joining Hallador, Lovell was Vice President at Alliance Coal, LLC, where he oversaw operations in Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. He is a past president of the Indiana Coal Council, Kentucky Coal Association, and West Virginia Coal Association.
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Hallador Energy's primary product is steam coal for the electric power generation industry in Indiana. The addressable market for this product in Indiana can be estimated based on the state's coal consumption for electricity generation.
In 2024, Indiana consumed approximately 26 million tons of coal, with the majority used for electric power generation. Based on a U.S. average price of $153.34 per short ton in Q1 2024, the estimated annual market size for steam coal used in Indiana's electric power generation industry is approximately $3.99 billion.
Hallador Energy also engages in gas exploration activities in Indiana. However, a specific monetary market size for gas exploration activities within Indiana is not readily available. While data exists for Indiana's natural gas production in terms of volume, and the overall U.S. natural gas market size is substantial, an addressable market size in monetary terms directly attributable to gas exploration activities in Indiana cannot be precisely determined from the available information.
Therefore, for the addressable market size of Hallador Energy's gas exploration activities, the output is null.
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Hallador Energy (HNRG) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Expansion of Power Generation Capacity through Natural Gas: Hallador Energy has secured an Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) slot for a proposed 515 MW natural gas generation project at its Merom site. This project, which involves a $14 million deposit and targets completion by the third quarter of 2029, represents a nearly 50% increase in the company's power generation capabilities and is expected to be a significant driver of future power sales.
- Increased Electric Sales Driven by Market Demand and Favorable Pricing: In 2025, the company experienced a 19% increase in electric sales, primarily due to expanding demand and stable pricing within the MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) market. Hallador has noted improving power market conditions and is receiving competitive offers for its accredited capacity for over a decade in length, indicating continued strong demand for its electricity generation.
- Securing Long-Term Energy and Capacity Sales Contracts: Hallador Energy has established a robust forward sales position, with approximately $1.3 billion in total forward energy, capacity, and coal sales commitments extending through 2029. Of this, $866.9 million is contracted third-party revenue, providing significant revenue visibility and certainty that supports future growth.
- Optimized Third-Party Coal Sales: While electric sales are the primary revenue driver, the company's Sunrise Coal operations contribute to revenue through both internal fuel supply for the Merom generating station and opportunistic sales to third-party coal markets. Coal sales increased by 8% in 2025, driven by third-party shipments, highlighting the benefit of its integrated platform.
- Enhanced Operational Reliability of Merom Generating Station: To address operational challenges experienced in late 2025 and early 2026, Hallador plans a 60-day maintenance outage at its Merom Power Plant starting in May 2026. This extensive work is aimed at replacing and upgrading equipment to improve unit reliability and availability, which is critical for maximizing consistent electric generation and realizing the full revenue potential from electric sales.
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Share Repurchases
- No significant share repurchase activities by Hallador Energy (HNRG) have been reported in the last 3-5 years based on available information.
Share Issuance
- In January 2026, Hallador Energy completed a public offering of approximately 3.2 million shares of common stock at $18.00 per share, generating roughly $57.5 million in gross proceeds. The net proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including funding initial financial commitments for a planned natural gas generating facility.
- During Q4 2025, the company raised approximately $14 million through an At-The-Market (ATM) program by issuing over 697,000 shares.
- In December 2025, Hallador filed a prospectus supplement to its existing shelf registration statement to raise up to $50 million of common stock under its ATM program, to prepare for ERAS project development efforts.
Inbound Investments
- In January 2025, Hallador Power Company, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, entered into a Conversion Transaction Commitment Agreement with a global data center developer, which includes cumulative payments of up to $5 million to Hallador Power Company, LLC. This agreement aims to support energy and capacity delivery to a potential data center development in Indiana.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, Hallador Energy acquired Hoosier Energy's 1-Gigawatt Merom Generating Station in Sullivan County, Indiana, assuming certain decommissioning costs and environmental responsibilities. This acquisition included a 3.5-year power purchase agreement.
Capital Expenditures
- Hallador Energy's full-year capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $69.2 million, which included approximately $14 million deposited with MISO for the Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) expansion at the Merom Generating Station.
- Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $24.9 million.
- The company projects capital expenditures in 2026 to modestly increase compared to 2025 (excluding ERAS development), driven by CapEx deferred from 2025 into 2026 and continued investment in the ELG project.
Peer Outperformance in Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders ← | 5 | -48.1% | 86.6% | 139.1% | NRG 177% · OKLO 139% · TAC 26% |
| Electric Utilities | 24 | 4.9% | 52.0% | 50.0% | VST 563% · ETR 155% · AEP 78% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 4.8% | 61.4% | 49.8% | NI 105% · PNW 103% · MDU 101% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 4.3% | 65.8% | 41.8% | ATO 109% · SR 74% · NJR 67% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 12.7% | 9.6% | -5.5% | WTRG 12% · AWR 6% · AWK -1% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -70.4% | -75.2% | -90.0% | ORA 26% · CWEN 18% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Hallador Energy Stock Pre-Market (-5.9%): Proposed $50M Stock Offering | 01/14/2026 | |
| Hallador Energy Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Hallador Energy Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,254 |
| Op Inc LTM | 34 |
| FCF LTM | 142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 132 |
| CFO LTM | 374 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 466 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Operations | 314 | 262 | 268 | 66 | |
| Coal Operations | 226 | 205 | 436 | 293 | 246 |
| Corporate and Other and Eliminations | -71 | -63 | -69 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 469 | 404 | 635 | 362 | 248 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal Operations | 64 | 4 | 2 |
| Electric Operations | 13 | 32 | |
| Corporate and Other and Eliminations | -11 | -5 | -8 |
| Total | 65 | 30 | -6 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Operations | 257 | 220 | 208 | 267 | |
| Coal Operations | 149 | 145 | 376 | 376 | 346 |
| Corporate and Other and Eliminations | 3 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| Total | 408 | 369 | 590 | 631 | 354 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.10 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/20/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -57.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.61 | $16.28 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -25.8% | -38.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.8% | 64.6% |
| Downside Capture | 242.81 | 232.85 |
| Upside Capture | 87.44 | 126.36 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 26.7% | 31.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.43 | 2.34 | 2.22 | 2.41 | 1.72 | 1.43 |
| Up Beta | 4.77 | 0.03 | 0.71 | 1.63 | 0.25 | 1.27 |
| Down Beta | 3.72 | 3.98 | 5.16 | 3.98 | 2.64 | 1.67 |
| Up Capture | 170% | 89% | 126% | 178% | 174% | 177% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 27 | 55 | 114 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 405% | 321% | 239% | 207% | 162% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 28 | 37 | 71 | 136 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HNRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNRG | -51.4% | 64.6% | -0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -0.9% | 15.7% | -0.26 | 7.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 30.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 15.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | -5.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 11.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HNRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNRG | 24.8% | 70.3% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.3% | 17.4% | 0.32 | 16.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 27.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 13.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 25.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 13.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 15.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HNRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNRG | 1.8% | 70.1% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.3% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 12.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 17.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 11.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | 1.7% | 4.7% | -10.2% |
| 3/12/2026 | -11.5% | -13.0% | -21.6% |
| 11/10/2025 | 19.0% | 1.2% | 13.9% |
| 8/11/2025 | -6.9% | -17.5% | -9.5% |
| 5/12/2025 | 21.4% | 25.0% | 6.6% |
| 3/17/2025 | 4.1% | 14.7% | 14.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | 25.6% | 23.3% | 18.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.9% | 14.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -11.0% | -10.2% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 25.0% | 61.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -25.9% | -37.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | 1.7% | 4.7% | -10.2% |
| 3/12/2026 | -11.5% | -13.0% | -21.6% |
| 11/10/2025 | 19.0% | 1.2% | 13.9% |
| 8/11/2025 | -6.9% | -17.5% | -9.5% |
| 5/12/2025 | 21.4% | 25.0% | 6.6% |
| 3/17/2025 | 4.1% | 14.7% | 14.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | 25.6% | 23.3% | 18.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | 5.3% | 16.9% | 9.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 4.8% | 10.6% | 61.2% |
| 3/14/2024 | -10.4% | -25.9% | -37.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -12.2% | -9.0% | -10.2% |
| 8/8/2023 | 1.3% | 3.1% | 9.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 3.3% | 2.6% | -9.3% |
| 3/17/2023 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 14.9% |
| 11/15/2022 | 3.4% | 9.7% | 17.2% |
| 8/16/2022 | 1.2% | 10.4% | -9.5% |
| 3/29/2022 | -0.6% | -0.3% | 25.3% |
| 11/9/2021 | -3.3% | -14.2% | -13.1% |
| 8/10/2021 | 4.3% | -4.3% | 3.9% |
| 5/4/2021 | 13.1% | 4.9% | 34.1% |
| 3/9/2021 | 4.1% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| 11/3/2020 | 2.5% | -7.4% | 13.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.9% | 14.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -11.0% | -10.2% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 25.0% | 61.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -25.9% | -37.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/09/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Total Project Cost | Reported | 800.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | |||||
| 2028 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 320.12 Mil | -68.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2028 | |||
| 2026 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 321.05 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 448.71 Mil | ||||||
| 2029 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 246.44 Mil | ||||||
| 2030 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 204.70 Mil | ||||||
| 2031-2040 Total Contracted Revenue | Reported | 824.78 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Contracted Revenue | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 703.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 124.53 Mil for 2028 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Contracted Revenue (Consolidated) | Reported | 389.54 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 385.46 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Contracted Revenue (Segment) | Reported | 506.84 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Contracted Revenue (Consolidated) | Reported | 335.54 Mil | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 310.55 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Contracted Revenue (Segment) | Reported | 452.84 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Contracted Revenue (Consolidated) | Reported | 124.53 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 124.53 Mil for 2028 | |||
| 2028 Contracted Revenue (Segment) | Reported | 286.20 Mil | ||||||
| 2029 Contracted Revenue (Consolidated) | Reported | 17.33 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 17.33 Mil for 2029 | |||
| 2029 Contracted Revenue (Segment) | Reported | 17.33 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Contracted Revenue | Reported | 385.46 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Contracted Revenue | Reported | 310.55 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Contracted Revenue | Reported | 124.53 Mil | ||||||
| 2029 Contracted Revenue | Reported | 17.33 Mil | -98.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2029 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sugg, Barbara Ann | Direct | Buy | 7152026 | 17.13 | 5,000 | 85,648 | 85,648 | Form | |
| 2 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 7102026 | 16.58 | 5,000 | 82,912 | 331,650 | Form | |
| 3 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6302026 | 16.94 | 10,000 | 169,400 | 254,100 | Form | |
| 4 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 17.70 | 2,000 | 35,400 | 88,500 | Form | |
| 5 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 17.04 | 3,000 | 51,120 | 51,120 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sugg, Barbara Ann | Direct | Buy | 7152026 | 17.13 | 5,000 | 85,648 | 85,648 | Form | |
| 2 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 7102026 | 16.58 | 5,000 | 82,912 | 331,650 | Form | |
| 3 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6302026 | 16.94 | 10,000 | 169,400 | 254,100 | Form | |
| 4 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 17.70 | 2,000 | 35,400 | 88,500 | Form | |
| 5 | Hudson, Daniel Timothy | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 17.04 | 3,000 | 51,120 | 51,120 | Form | |
| 6 | Wesley, Charles Ray IV | the Charles R. Wesley IV Revocable Trust | Buy | 6172026 | 16.69 | 15,000 | 250,314 | 5,648,235 | Form | |
| 7 | Wesley, Charles Ray IV | the Charles R. Wesley IV Revocable Trust | Buy | 12192025 | 17.83 | 20,000 | 356,576 | 4,776,585 | Form | |
| 8 | Wesley, Charles Ray IV | the Charles R. Wesley IV Revocable Trust | Buy | 11212025 | 19.28 | 13,000 | 250,665 | 4,780,253 | Form | |
| 9 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 10032025 | 19.76 | 75,000 | 1,481,970 | 31,317,563 | Form | |
| 10 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 10032025 | 19.76 | 25,000 | 493,990 | 416,374 | Form | |
| 11 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 10012025 | 19.53 | 75,000 | 1,464,638 | 32,415,923 | Form | |
| 12 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 10012025 | 19.53 | 25,000 | 488,212 | 899,717 | Form | |
| 13 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 10012025 | 19.65 | 55,337 | 1,087,284 | 34,088,579 | Form | |
| 14 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 10012025 | 19.65 | 18,446 | 362,434 | 1,396,451 | Form | |
| 15 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 9292025 | 19.18 | 58,401 | 1,120,219 | 34,339,987 | Form | |
| 16 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 9292025 | 19.18 | 19,467 | 373,406 | 1,717,090 | Form | |
| 17 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 9292025 | 19.82 | 26,236 | 519,914 | 36,634,664 | Form | |
| 18 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 9292025 | 19.82 | 8,746 | 173,318 | 2,159,734 | Form | |
| 19 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 19.08 | 6,577 | 125,519 | 35,781,586 | Form | |
| 20 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 9242025 | 19.08 | 2,193 | 41,852 | 2,246,837 | Form | |
| 21 | Hardie, David C | Hallador Alternative Assets Fund LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 19.25 | 57,494 | 1,107,024 | 36,227,145 | Form | |
| 22 | Hardie, David C | David Hardie Separate Property Trust | Sell | 9242025 | 19.25 | 19,165 | 369,014 | 2,309,089 | Form | |
| 23 | Wesley, Charles Ray IV | the Charles R. Wesley IV Revocable Trust | Buy | 8192025 | 15.27 | 20,000 | 305,404 | 3,587,184 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Resources |
| S&P Global Commodity Insights |
| Energy Risk |
| Power Finance & Risk |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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