Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EXC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Regulatory Approvals and Infrastructure Projects. Exelon, along with NextEra Energy Transmission, was recommended by PJM Interconnection in December 2025 to develop a significant 765-kV high-voltage transmission line across Pennsylvania and West Virginia. This project, designed to move approximately 7 gigawatts of power, reinforces Exelon's role in major regional grid upgrades and aligns with substantial power investment plans in these states. Such large infrastructure projects, while promising long-term growth, also highlight increased dependence on external funding and potential risks associated with rising interest costs.

2. Earnings Performance and Analyst Expectations. Exelon reported stronger-than-expected earnings in Q3 2025, with $0.86 earnings per share (EPS) against analyst estimates of $0.69. For Q1 2025, operating EPS grew from $0.68 to $0.92 year-over-year, driven by new base rates and favorable weather conditions. Analysts generally view Exelon as a stable utility with predictable earnings, expecting compounded earnings growth through 2027 as margins expand and operational visibility strengthens. The company's FY 2025 guidance for EPS is set between $2.64 and $2.74.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EXC Return-4%41%9%-14%9%19%65%
Peers Return4%16%-1%-11%20%15%45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXC Win Rate58%58%67%42%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%58%60%53%58%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXC Max Drawdown-34%-9%-12%-17%-6%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-8%-16%-24%-6%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, DUK, SO, AEP, D. See EXC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven539 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven17.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven128.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to ES, IMSR, ONE, CEG, SO


In The Past

Exelon's stock fell -29.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -29.3% loss requires a 41.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Exelon (EXC)

Better Bets than Exelon (EXC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EXC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.2%-2.2%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-2.2%-2.2%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Exelon

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EXCNEEDUKSOAEPDMedian
NameExelon NextEra .Duke Ene.Southern American.Dominion. 
Mkt Price43.5781.65115.3084.44114.1359.3383.05
Mkt Cap44.0168.689.793.161.050.675.4
Rev LTM24,31726,29831,65928,91221,25715,22725,308
Op Inc LTM5,0607,4048,5837,4265,3004,5286,352
FCF LTM-1,5953,073-921-1,823-1,736-8,071-1,665
FCF 3Y Avg-2,1862,421-2,122-1,031-1,932-5,691-2,027
CFO LTM6,43611,96712,0499,3786,8584,6098,118
CFO 3Y Avg5,33711,84710,5398,6105,8345,6777,222

Growth & Margins

EXCNEEDUKSOAEPDMedian
NameExelon NextEra .Duke Ene.Southern American.Dominion. 
Rev Chg LTM6.1%0.2%4.8%9.4%8.4%5.3%5.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.9%11.4%5.2%1.3%4.2%7.5%6.4%
Rev Chg Q9.0%5.3%4.8%7.5%10.9%9.3%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%1.5%1.2%1.9%2.9%2.2%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM20.8%28.2%27.1%25.7%24.9%29.7%26.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.0%31.5%25.1%23.7%21.6%27.0%24.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%-1.4%0.3%0.3%0.1%1.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM26.5%45.5%38.1%32.4%32.3%30.3%32.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.3%44.6%34.6%31.6%29.0%38.4%33.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.6%11.7%-2.9%-6.3%-8.2%-53.0%-6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-9.9%9.3%-7.1%-3.7%-9.7%-38.2%-8.4%

Valuation

EXCNEEDUKSOAEPDMedian
NameExelon NextEra .Duke Ene.Southern American.Dominion. 
Mkt Cap44.0168.689.793.161.050.675.4
P/S1.95.93.03.62.83.43.2
P/EBIT8.620.710.412.510.610.110.5
P/E16.124.019.323.416.422.821.1
P/CFO7.113.08.011.18.811.310.0
Total Yield9.7%7.1%6.0%7.1%9.4%8.7%7.9%
Dividend Yield3.5%2.9%0.8%2.9%3.3%4.3%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.5%1.3%-2.9%-1.3%-4.3%-12.2%-3.6%
D/E1.10.60.90.70.80.90.8
Net D/E1.10.60.90.70.80.90.8

Returns

EXCNEEDUKSOAEPDMedian
NameExelon NextEra .Duke Ene.Southern American.Dominion. 
1M Rtn-5.2%-2.0%-6.0%-6.1%-5.9%-0.9%-5.5%
3M Rtn1.3%14.7%-4.6%-7.7%5.1%-0.1%0.6%
6M Rtn2.5%10.8%0.4%-5.0%12.7%9.3%5.9%
12M Rtn22.5%14.4%9.8%4.9%27.4%15.0%14.7%
3Y Rtn15.0%3.8%26.6%35.3%33.9%17.1%21.9%
1M Excs Rtn-4.8%-4.0%-5.8%-7.0%-6.6%-1.9%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-2.0%11.8%-8.2%-10.9%2.2%-4.2%-3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-11.7%-3.5%-13.8%-19.3%-1.5%-4.9%-8.3%
12M Excs Rtn7.9%0.4%-5.6%-9.7%11.1%-0.1%0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-58.4%-69.1%-43.2%-34.6%-41.2%-54.7%-49.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commonwealth Edison Company (ComEd)42,82739,66136,47034,46632,765
PECO Energy Company (PECO)15,59514,50213,82412,53111,469
Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE)14,18413,35012,32411,65010,634
Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco)11,19410,6579,9039,2648,661
Other6,3746,0147,6349,0058,484
Delmarva Power & Light Company (DPL)5,9665,8025,4125,1404,830
Atlantic City Electric Company (ACE)5,1574,9794,5564,2863,933
Other-Pepco Holdings LLC (PHI)4,6274,6774,9335,0795,335
Intersegment Eliminations-Pepco Holdings LLC (PHI)-41-33-60-33-40
Intersegment Eliminations-4,337-4,260-8,319-10,165-10,089
Exelon Generation Company, LLC (Generation)   48,09448,995
Total101,54695,34986,677129,317124,977


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity37,873,823
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.9%
Average Daily Volume7,586,709
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.99
Basic Shares Quantity1,011,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20250.4%-1.6%-5.0%
7/31/20251.5%1.8%-0.2%
5/1/2025-0.6%-1.2%-5.7%
2/12/20251.3%0.7%3.6%
10/30/20240.4%-2.7%0.9%
8/1/20242.8%1.7%3.3%
5/2/20240.1%-0.1%0.2%
2/21/20244.3%4.3%6.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151413
# Negative8910
Median Positive2.0%1.3%3.6%
Median Negative-1.4%-1.2%-3.4%
Max Positive6.8%5.8%20.8%
Max Negative-3.3%-3.7%-17.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021