Exelon (EXC)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $43.53 | Market Cap: $44.0 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Exelon (EXC)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $43.53Market Cap: $44.0 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Regulatory Approvals and Infrastructure Projects. Exelon, along with NextEra Energy Transmission, was recommended by PJM Interconnection in December 2025 to develop a significant 765-kV high-voltage transmission line across Pennsylvania and West Virginia. This project, designed to move approximately 7 gigawatts of power, reinforces Exelon's role in major regional grid upgrades and aligns with substantial power investment plans in these states. Such large infrastructure projects, while promising long-term growth, also highlight increased dependence on external funding and potential risks associated with rising interest costs.
2. Earnings Performance and Analyst Expectations. Exelon reported stronger-than-expected earnings in Q3 2025, with $0.86 earnings per share (EPS) against analyst estimates of $0.69. For Q1 2025, operating EPS grew from $0.68 to $0.92 year-over-year, driven by new base rates and favorable weather conditions. Analysts generally view Exelon as a stable utility with predictable earnings, expecting compounded earnings growth through 2027 as margins expand and operational visibility strengthens. The company's FY 2025 guidance for EPS is set between $2.64 and $2.74.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXC Return | -4% | 41% | 9% | -14% | 9% | 19% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 16% | -1% | -11% | 20% | 15% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 60% | 53% | 58% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXC Max Drawdown | -34% | -9% | -12% | -17% | -6% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -8% | -16% | -24% | -6% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, DUK, SO, AEP, D. See EXC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 539 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to ES, IMSR, ONE, CEG, SO
In The Past
Exelon's stock fell -29.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -29.3% loss requires a 41.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.2% | -2.2% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.2% | -2.2% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Exelon
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 83.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.4 |
| Rev LTM | 25,308 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,352 |
| FCF LTM | -1,665 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,027 |
| CFO LTM | 8,118 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,222 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -6.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.4 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth Edison Company (ComEd) | 42,827 | 39,661 | 36,470 | 34,466 | 32,765 |
| PECO Energy Company (PECO) | 15,595 | 14,502 | 13,824 | 12,531 | 11,469 |
| Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) | 14,184 | 13,350 | 12,324 | 11,650 | 10,634 |
| Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco) | 11,194 | 10,657 | 9,903 | 9,264 | 8,661 |
| Other | 6,374 | 6,014 | 7,634 | 9,005 | 8,484 |
| Delmarva Power & Light Company (DPL) | 5,966 | 5,802 | 5,412 | 5,140 | 4,830 |
| Atlantic City Electric Company (ACE) | 5,157 | 4,979 | 4,556 | 4,286 | 3,933 |
| Other-Pepco Holdings LLC (PHI) | 4,627 | 4,677 | 4,933 | 5,079 | 5,335 |
| Intersegment Eliminations-Pepco Holdings LLC (PHI) | -41 | -33 | -60 | -33 | -40 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | -4,337 | -4,260 | -8,319 | -10,165 | -10,089 |
| Exelon Generation Company, LLC (Generation) | 48,094 | 48,995 | |||
| Total | 101,546 | 95,349 | 86,677 | 129,317 | 124,977 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 0.4% | -1.6% | -5.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.5% | 1.8% | -0.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.6% | -1.2% | -5.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.4% | -2.7% | 0.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2/21/2024 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -1.2% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 5.8% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -3.3% | -3.7% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |