Analogy 1: A Moderna focused on developing breakthrough treatments for specific blood cancers, currently in late-stage clinical trials for its lead drug.

Analogy 2: Like a Vertex Pharmaceuticals dedicated to rare blood cancers, aiming to bring one key innovative therapy through its final clinical trials.

Geron Corporation is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company with its lead product, imetelstat, currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. As such, it does not currently have commercial product customers generating sales revenue from a marketed drug. Upon successful clinical development and regulatory approval, Geron's major customers for imetelstat would primarily be companies and institutions within the healthcare supply chain responsible for the distribution and dispensing of prescription medications. These would include:

• Pharmaceutical Wholesalers and Distributors: Large companies that purchase drugs directly from manufacturers and distribute them to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. Examples include AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC), Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), and McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK).
• Hospitals and Healthcare Systems: Medical institutions that purchase and administer prescription drugs for patient care, both in inpatient and outpatient settings.
• Specialty Pharmacies: Pharmacies that specialize in the distribution and management of high-cost, high-touch, or complex medications, often for specific disease states or chronic conditions.

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Harout Semerjian, President and Chief Executive Officer, Board of Directors Member Harout Semerjian became President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Geron Corporation starting August 7, 2025. Before joining Geron, he served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of GlycoMimetics, Inc., a position he held since August 6, 2021. Michelle Robertson, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Michelle Robertson holds the titles of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at Geron Corporation. Joseph Eid, M.D., Executive Vice President, Research and Development, Chief Medical Officer Joseph Eid, M.D., serves as the Executive Vice President of Research and Development and Chief Medical Officer at Geron Corporation. Ahmed ElNawawi, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer Ahmed ElNawawi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer for Geron Corporation. Shannon T. Odam, Executive Vice President, Chief People Officer Shannon T. Odam is the Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer at Geron Corporation.

The key risks to Geron's business are:

1. Regulatory Approval and Clinical Trial Outcomes for Imetelstat

Geron Corporation faces significant risk regarding the regulatory approval and commercialization success of its primary drug candidate, imetelstat. The FDA has raised substantial concerns about the benefit-risk profile of imetelstat, particularly highlighting the high incidence of severe adverse events (Grade 3-4 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia) in clinical trials compared to the observed efficacy in achieving transfusion independence in low-to-intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients. The agency questioned whether the magnitude and durability of the treatment's effect outweigh its risks and noted that secondary endpoints, such as overall survival and complete remission, did not strongly support a disease-modifying effect. Furthermore, concerns were raised about the applicability of trial results to the U.S. population due to a small proportion of U.S. patients in the IMerge study. The postponement of pivotal IMpactMF trial results for myelofibrosis also adds to the uncertainty surrounding the drug's future prospects.

2. Product Concentration and Single Product Dependence

Geron's business model is heavily reliant on the success of imetelstat. The company's prospects are almost entirely tied to this single product. Should imetelstat encounter any further setbacks, such as non-approval, limited market adoption, or significant competition from existing or emerging treatments like Bristol Myers Squibb's Reblozyl, Geron lacks a diverse product portfolio to mitigate these impacts. This singular focus creates substantial vulnerability to market fluctuations, regulatory decisions, and unexpected clinical outcomes.

3. Financial Health and Funding

Geron has been identified as facing financial challenges, with a "Distressed" categorization and a history of net losses. Despite efforts to extend its funding runway through initiatives like a $150 million at-the-market equity offering, such actions introduce dilution risk for existing shareholders. The company anticipates continued operating expenses and may need to raise additional funds in the coming years to sustain operations, especially if imetelstat's commercial performance does not meet expectations. This ongoing need for capital underscores a significant financial risk.

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Geron Corporation's primary product, imetelstat (marketed as Rytelo), targets two main addressable markets: low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis (MF).

Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS)

The global market for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) drugs was valued at approximately USD 4.55 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 11.17 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global MDS market at USD 3.454.5 million in 2023, with an expected growth to USD 15,325.39 million in 2032, at a CAGR of 5.56% between 2023 and 2032. In 2024, the U.S. myelodysplastic syndrome drugs market constituted approximately 30% of the global market. North America held a dominant share of the global MDS market, with a 36% revenue share in 2024 and is projected to lead with a 39.20% share in 2026. The U.S. market alone for MDS drugs reached approximately USD 1.2 billion in 2023.

Myelofibrosis (MF)

The global myelofibrosis (MF) treatment market was valued at over USD 834.5 million in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 1,433.9 million by the end of 2035, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2026 to 2035. Another report estimates the global myelofibrosis treatment market size at USD 1.2 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 2.75 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2025 to 2032. The market across the seven major markets (7MM), which include the U.S., Germany, Italy, France, Spain, the UK, and Japan, was approximately USD 2.2 billion in 2024. This 7MM market is projected to grow from USD 2.6 billion in 2025 to USD 5.6 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 9%. The United States represents the largest myelofibrosis market, with a valuation of approximately USD 1,700 million in 2024. North America is anticipated to hold two-fifths of the global myelofibrosis treatment industry share in 2025.

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Geron (GERN) Over the Next 2-3 Years

Geron Corporation, trading under the symbol GERN, is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily driven by the commercialization and expansion of its flagship product, RYTELO (imetelstat). RYTELO, a first-in-class telomerase inhibitor, has recently secured key regulatory approvals and is targeting substantial market opportunities in hematologic myeloid malignancies. The primary drivers of Geron's future revenue growth include:

1. Increasing Commercial Sales of RYTELO in Lower-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (LR-MDS) in the U.S. and Europe. RYTELO received FDA approval in June 2024 for adults with lower-risk MDS with transfusion-dependent anemia and subsequently gained European Union marketing authorization in March 2025. Geron has provided 2026 net revenue guidance for RYTELO ranging from $220 million to $240 million, with expectations of consistent quarter-over-quarter demand growth, especially in the latter half of the year. The company is strategically focused on expanding its commercial presence in the U.S. and refining its sales, marketing, and distribution efforts to maximize market penetration in this approved indication.
2. Potential Expansion into the Myelofibrosis (MF) Indication. Imetelstat is currently in a pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF clinical trial for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis. An interim analysis for overall survival from this trial is anticipated in the second half of 2026. A positive outcome from the IMpactMF trial and subsequent regulatory approval would unlock a significant new market for RYTELO, considerably broadening its addressable patient population and providing a substantial driver of future revenue growth.
3. Geographic Expansion of RYTELO Beyond Current U.S. and E.U. Markets. While RYTELO is approved in the U.S. and E.U. for LR-MDS, Geron is exploring potential global market opportunities and international expansion for the product. Successful navigation of regulatory pathways and commercial launches in additional countries would contribute to increased revenue streams over the next few years.
4. Growth in Prescribing Accounts and Patient Demand. Geron's commercial strategy for 2026 targets the estimated 8,000 second-line lower-risk MDS patients in the U.S. through prioritized engagement of high-volume community accounts. The company has seen an increase in prescribing accounts and demand, and continued efforts to raise awareness among physicians and patients, along with expanding access and favorable insurance coverage, are expected to drive higher adoption rates and, consequently, revenue growth.

Share Issuance

• Geron launched a $150 million "at-the-market" (ATM) sales agreement for common stock with TD Securities (USA) LLC (TD Cowen) in February 2026, as part of a universal shelf registration.
• In May 2025, stockholders approved amendments to equity incentive and employee stock purchase plans, increasing the share reserve by 20 million and 6 million shares, respectively, for employee stock-based compensation.
• The company recently completed an upsized underwritten public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants, generating total gross proceeds of $227.8 million, intended to fund preparatory activities for the potential U.S. commercial launch of imetelstat.

Inbound Investments

• In January 2026, Geron amended its 5-year senior secured term loan facility with Pharmakon Advisors, LP, extending the deadline to July 30, 2026, for requesting Tranche B ($75 million) and Tranche C ($50 million) loans.
• As of June 30, 2025, Geron maintained approximately $433 million in cash and marketable securities, with access to additional debt funding through its Pharmakon loan agreement.

Capital Expenditures

• For 2026, Geron expects total operating expenses to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million, reflecting continued investment in RYTELO's commercial strategy and clinical development.
• Total costs and operating expenses in 2025 were $254.7 million.
• In December 2025, Geron initiated a strategic restructuring, including a workforce reduction, incurring $17.0 million in restructuring charges aimed at lowering future expenses.