Geron (GERN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.26 | Market Cap: $840.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Geron (GERN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.26Market Cap: $840.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GERN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -9.3% stock movement for Geron (GERN) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Geron's Q3 2025 revenue fell short of analyst expectations.**
The company reported total revenues of $47.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, missing the analyst consensus estimate, which ranged from approximately $53.9 million to $54.49 million. This revenue shortfall contributed to a negative pre-market price movement for the stock following the earnings announcement on November 5, 2025.
**2. Demand for RYTELO, Geron's key product, declined quarter-over-quarter.**
The Q3 2025 financial results revealed a 3% quarter-over-quarter decrease in demand for RYTELO. This indicated that despite efforts to increase its use, revenue growth for the product faced challenges, leading to investor concerns.
**3. Investors reacted cautiously to the company's mixed Q3 2025 performance.**
While Geron achieved a significant 67% year-over-year increase in RYTELO revenue, the overall financial performance for Q3 2025 was considered mixed due to the revenue miss and declining demand. This led to a cautious response from investors, contributing to negative pre-market trading activity and a general decline in the stock's recent performance.
**4. Operating expenses increased in Q3 2025.**
Research and development expenses, as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses, increased in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. These increases were primarily driven by investments in chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC), personnel-related expenses, and enhanced sales and marketing programs.
**5. Analyst sentiment and technical indicators showed a negative trend.**
While the average analyst rating remained a "Buy," some firms, such as Goldman Sachs, initiated a "Strong Sell" rating on GERN in July 2025, and Scotiabank downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Hold" in May 2025, reducing its price target. Technical analysis also indicated a downtrend starting in late November 2025, with the stock experiencing a significant decline over a 10-day period leading up to December 3, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GERN Return | 17% | -23% | 98% | -13% | 68% | -65% | -10% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GERN Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GERN Max Drawdown | -35% | -25% | -19% | -28% | -17% | -70% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GERN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 550.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Geron's stock fell -52.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/3/2021. A -52.9% loss requires a 112.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Geron
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 1.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| Rev LTM | 183 |
| Op Inc LTM | -63 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 266.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1,612.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 39.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9,658.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 6.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -20.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -8,639.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8,688.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 1.3 |
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | -2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -48.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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