Geron (GERN)
Market Price (9/24/2026): $1.26 | Market Cap: $845.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Geron (GERN)
Market Price (9/24/2026): $1.26Market Cap: $845.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.99, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% Key risksGERN key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.99, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksGERN key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/23/2026
Geron (GERN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results: Geron reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026, revealing a mixed financial performance that likely contributed to the stock's stability. While the company exceeded revenue expectations with $57.5 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, beating consensus estimates of $55.30 million, it simultaneously missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting -$0.02 against an estimated -$0.01. This balance of strong sales growth for RYTELO® (imetelstat) and a larger-than-anticipated net loss created opposing forces on the stock price, keeping it largely at the same level.
2. Anticipation and Uncertainty Surrounding IMpactMF Interim Analysis: The market is awaiting the interim overall survival analysis from the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial of imetelstat in relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, which is expected in the second half of fiscal year 2026. This highly anticipated data represents a significant potential catalyst for Geron. However, discussions regarding potentially increasing the number of events required for the interim analysis, which could shift the timeline, introduced a degree of uncertainty. This "wait and see" stance among investors, balancing potential upside with timeline ambiguity, likely prevented significant directional movement in the stock.
Show more
Geron (GERN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results: Geron reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026, revealing a mixed financial performance that likely contributed to the stock's stability. While the company exceeded revenue expectations with $57.5 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, beating consensus estimates of $55.30 million, it simultaneously missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting -$0.02 against an estimated -$0.01. This balance of strong sales growth for RYTELO® (imetelstat) and a larger-than-anticipated net loss created opposing forces on the stock price, keeping it largely at the same level.
2. Anticipation and Uncertainty Surrounding IMpactMF Interim Analysis: The market is awaiting the interim overall survival analysis from the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial of imetelstat in relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, which is expected in the second half of fiscal year 2026. This highly anticipated data represents a significant potential catalyst for Geron. However, discussions regarding potentially increasing the number of events required for the interim analysis, which could shift the timeline, introduced a degree of uncertainty. This "wait and see" stance among investors, balancing potential upside with timeline ambiguity, likely prevented significant directional movement in the stock.
Show more
Updated on 9/23/2026
Geron (GERN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results: Geron reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026, revealing a mixed financial performance that likely contributed to the stock's stability. While the company exceeded revenue expectations with $57.5 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, beating consensus estimates of $55.30 million, it simultaneously missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting -$0.02 against an estimated -$0.01. This balance of strong sales growth for RYTELO® (imetelstat) and a larger-than-anticipated net loss created opposing forces on the stock price, keeping it largely at the same level.
2. Anticipation and Uncertainty Surrounding IMpactMF Interim Analysis: The market is awaiting the interim overall survival analysis from the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial of imetelstat in relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, which is expected in the second half of fiscal year 2026. This highly anticipated data represents a significant potential catalyst for Geron. However, discussions regarding potentially increasing the number of events required for the interim analysis, which could shift the timeline, introduced a degree of uncertainty. This "wait and see" stance among investors, balancing potential upside with timeline ambiguity, likely prevented significant directional movement in the stock.
3. Maturing Commercialization of RYTELO®: RYTELO® (imetelstat) received FDA approval in June 2024 for lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and by the period of analysis (since May 31, 2026), it had been a commercial product for approximately two years. While the fiscal Q2 2026 results demonstrated continued strong revenue growth and management reiterated its fiscal year 2026 RYTELO® net product revenue guidance of $220 million to $240 million, expecting to land at the mid-to-high end, the initial excitement from its launch has largely been absorbed into the stock price. The steady, predictable commercial trajectory, rather than new, major product-related catalysts, contributed to the stock's stable trend.
4. Divergent Analyst Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Despite some Wall Street analysts assigning a median 12-month price target of $4.00, representing over 200% upside from current levels, the overall consensus rating from analysts is a "Hold." This mixed sentiment, with a blend of buy, hold, and sell ratings, indicates a lack of strong conviction for either a significant increase or decrease in the stock price. Furthermore, technical analysis as of late September 2026 showed a bearish sentiment, creating a push-and-pull effect that contributed to the stock remaining within a tight trading range.
Show less
Geron (GERN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results: Geron reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026, revealing a mixed financial performance that likely contributed to the stock's stability. While the company exceeded revenue expectations with $57.5 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, beating consensus estimates of $55.30 million, it simultaneously missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting -$0.02 against an estimated -$0.01. This balance of strong sales growth for RYTELO® (imetelstat) and a larger-than-anticipated net loss created opposing forces on the stock price, keeping it largely at the same level.
2. Anticipation and Uncertainty Surrounding IMpactMF Interim Analysis: The market is awaiting the interim overall survival analysis from the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial of imetelstat in relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, which is expected in the second half of fiscal year 2026. This highly anticipated data represents a significant potential catalyst for Geron. However, discussions regarding potentially increasing the number of events required for the interim analysis, which could shift the timeline, introduced a degree of uncertainty. This "wait and see" stance among investors, balancing potential upside with timeline ambiguity, likely prevented significant directional movement in the stock.
3. Maturing Commercialization of RYTELO®: RYTELO® (imetelstat) received FDA approval in June 2024 for lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and by the period of analysis (since May 31, 2026), it had been a commercial product for approximately two years. While the fiscal Q2 2026 results demonstrated continued strong revenue growth and management reiterated its fiscal year 2026 RYTELO® net product revenue guidance of $220 million to $240 million, expecting to land at the mid-to-high end, the initial excitement from its launch has largely been absorbed into the stock price. The steady, predictable commercial trajectory, rather than new, major product-related catalysts, contributed to the stock's stable trend.
4. Divergent Analyst Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Despite some Wall Street analysts assigning a median 12-month price target of $4.00, representing over 200% upside from current levels, the overall consensus rating from analysts is a "Hold." This mixed sentiment, with a blend of buy, hold, and sell ratings, indicates a lack of strong conviction for either a significant increase or decrease in the stock price. Furthermore, technical analysis as of late September 2026 showed a bearish sentiment, creating a push-and-pull effect that contributed to the stock remaining within a tight trading range.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.8% change in GERN stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.25 | 1.24 | -0.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 196 | 205 | 4.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.3 | 4.1 | -4.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 669 | 671 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GERN | -0.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 4.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.4% | 24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.2% change in GERN stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.68 | 1.24 | -26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 183 | 205 | 11.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.1 | 4.1 | -33.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 667 | 671 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GERN | -26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.5% | 23.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.3% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.4% change in GERN stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.40 | 1.24 | -11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 164 | 205 | 24.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.7 | 4.1 | -28.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 666 | 671 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GERN | -11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.3% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.0% | 33.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.0% change in GERN stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -99.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.43 | 1.24 | -49.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 205 | 45357.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2,955.3 | 4.1 | -99.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 547 | 671 | -18.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GERN | -49.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.0% | 19.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.2% | 21.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GERN Return | -23% | 98% | -13% | 68% | -63% | -1% | -18% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 19% | -7% | 11% | 28% | 24% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GERN Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 60% | 47% | 62% | 63% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GERN Max Drawdown | -43% | -31% | -53% | -35% | -70% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -18% | -25% | -23% | -23% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BMY, INCY, GILD, ABBV, AMGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GERN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Geron's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GERN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -51.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 744 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Geron's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Geron (GERN)
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Geron Corporation (GERN) is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company primarily focused on developing and commercializing new therapeutic treatments. Its core mission is to address myeloid hematologic malignancies, which are severe forms of blood cancer affecting the bone marrow and blood cells.
The company's lead product is imetelstat, a drug currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. Imetelstat operates as a telomerase inhibitor, a mechanism designed to block the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells responsible for these cancers. By targeting telomerase, imetelstat aims to offer a novel approach to treating these challenging conditions.
Geron's primary market consists of patients suffering from specific blood disorders. Imetelstat is being developed to treat individuals diagnosed with low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and those with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis (MF). These are serious conditions, positioning Geron to serve patients and the medical community specializing in hematology and oncology.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: A Moderna focused on developing breakthrough treatments for specific blood cancers, currently in late-stage clinical trials for its lead drug.
Analogy 2: Like a Vertex Pharmaceuticals dedicated to rare blood cancers, aiming to bring one key innovative therapy through its final clinical trials.
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- imetelstat: A telomerase inhibitor in Phase 3 clinical trials for treating myeloid hematologic malignancies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Geron Corporation is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company with its lead product, imetelstat, currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. As such, it does not currently have commercial product customers generating sales revenue from a marketed drug.
Upon successful clinical development and regulatory approval, Geron's major customers for imetelstat would primarily be companies and institutions within the healthcare supply chain responsible for the distribution and dispensing of prescription medications. These would include:
- Pharmaceutical Wholesalers and Distributors: Large companies that purchase drugs directly from manufacturers and distribute them to pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. Examples include AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC), Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), and McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK).
- Hospitals and Healthcare Systems: Medical institutions that purchase and administer prescription drugs for patient care, both in inpatient and outpatient settings.
- Specialty Pharmacies: Pharmacies that specialize in the distribution and management of high-cost, high-touch, or complex medications, often for specific disease states or chronic conditions.
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Harout Semerjian, President and Chief Executive Officer, Board of Directors Member
Harout Semerjian became President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Geron Corporation starting August 7, 2025. Before joining Geron, he served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of GlycoMimetics, Inc., a position he held since August 6, 2021.
Michelle Robertson, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Michelle Robertson holds the titles of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at Geron Corporation.
Joseph Eid, M.D., Executive Vice President, Research and Development, Chief Medical Officer
Joseph Eid, M.D., serves as the Executive Vice President of Research and Development and Chief Medical Officer at Geron Corporation.
Ahmed ElNawawi, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Ahmed ElNawawi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer for Geron Corporation.
Shannon T. Odam, Executive Vice President, Chief People Officer
Shannon T. Odam is the Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer at Geron Corporation.
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The key risks to Geron's business are:
1. Regulatory Approval and Clinical Trial Outcomes for Imetelstat
Geron Corporation faces significant risk regarding the regulatory approval and commercialization success of its primary drug candidate, imetelstat. The FDA has raised substantial concerns about the benefit-risk profile of imetelstat, particularly highlighting the high incidence of severe adverse events (Grade 3-4 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia) in clinical trials compared to the observed efficacy in achieving transfusion independence in low-to-intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients. The agency questioned whether the magnitude and durability of the treatment's effect outweigh its risks and noted that secondary endpoints, such as overall survival and complete remission, did not strongly support a disease-modifying effect. Furthermore, concerns were raised about the applicability of trial results to the U.S. population due to a small proportion of U.S. patients in the IMerge study. The postponement of pivotal IMpactMF trial results for myelofibrosis also adds to the uncertainty surrounding the drug's future prospects.2. Product Concentration and Single Product Dependence
Geron's business model is heavily reliant on the success of imetelstat. The company's prospects are almost entirely tied to this single product. Should imetelstat encounter any further setbacks, such as non-approval, limited market adoption, or significant competition from existing or emerging treatments like Bristol Myers Squibb's Reblozyl, Geron lacks a diverse product portfolio to mitigate these impacts. This singular focus creates substantial vulnerability to market fluctuations, regulatory decisions, and unexpected clinical outcomes.3. Financial Health and Funding
Geron has been identified as facing financial challenges, with a "Distressed" categorization and a history of net losses. Despite efforts to extend its funding runway through initiatives like a $150 million at-the-market equity offering, such actions introduce dilution risk for existing shareholders. The company anticipates continued operating expenses and may need to raise additional funds in the coming years to sustain operations, especially if imetelstat's commercial performance does not meet expectations. This ongoing need for capital underscores a significant financial risk.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Geron Corporation's primary product, imetelstat (marketed as Rytelo), targets two main addressable markets: low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis (MF).
Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS)
The global market for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) drugs was valued at approximately USD 4.55 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 11.17 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the global MDS market at USD 3.454.5 million in 2023, with an expected growth to USD 15,325.39 million in 2032, at a CAGR of 5.56% between 2023 and 2032. In 2024, the U.S. myelodysplastic syndrome drugs market constituted approximately 30% of the global market. North America held a dominant share of the global MDS market, with a 36% revenue share in 2024 and is projected to lead with a 39.20% share in 2026. The U.S. market alone for MDS drugs reached approximately USD 1.2 billion in 2023.
Myelofibrosis (MF)
The global myelofibrosis (MF) treatment market was valued at over USD 834.5 million in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 1,433.9 million by the end of 2035, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2026 to 2035. Another report estimates the global myelofibrosis treatment market size at USD 1.2 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 2.75 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2025 to 2032. The market across the seven major markets (7MM), which include the U.S., Germany, Italy, France, Spain, the UK, and Japan, was approximately USD 2.2 billion in 2024. This 7MM market is projected to grow from USD 2.6 billion in 2025 to USD 5.6 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 9%. The United States represents the largest myelofibrosis market, with a valuation of approximately USD 1,700 million in 2024. North America is anticipated to hold two-fifths of the global myelofibrosis treatment industry share in 2025.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Geron (GERN) Over the Next 2-3 Years
Geron Corporation, trading under the symbol GERN, is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily driven by the commercialization and expansion of its flagship product, RYTELO (imetelstat). RYTELO, a first-in-class telomerase inhibitor, has recently secured key regulatory approvals and is targeting substantial market opportunities in hematologic myeloid malignancies. The primary drivers of Geron's future revenue growth include:- Increasing Commercial Sales of RYTELO in Lower-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (LR-MDS) in the U.S. and Europe. RYTELO received FDA approval in June 2024 for adults with lower-risk MDS with transfusion-dependent anemia and subsequently gained European Union marketing authorization in March 2025. Geron has provided 2026 net revenue guidance for RYTELO ranging from $220 million to $240 million, with expectations of consistent quarter-over-quarter demand growth, especially in the latter half of the year. The company is strategically focused on expanding its commercial presence in the U.S. and refining its sales, marketing, and distribution efforts to maximize market penetration in this approved indication.
- Potential Expansion into the Myelofibrosis (MF) Indication. Imetelstat is currently in a pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF clinical trial for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis. An interim analysis for overall survival from this trial is anticipated in the second half of 2026. A positive outcome from the IMpactMF trial and subsequent regulatory approval would unlock a significant new market for RYTELO, considerably broadening its addressable patient population and providing a substantial driver of future revenue growth.
- Geographic Expansion of RYTELO Beyond Current U.S. and E.U. Markets. While RYTELO is approved in the U.S. and E.U. for LR-MDS, Geron is exploring potential global market opportunities and international expansion for the product. Successful navigation of regulatory pathways and commercial launches in additional countries would contribute to increased revenue streams over the next few years.
- Growth in Prescribing Accounts and Patient Demand. Geron's commercial strategy for 2026 targets the estimated 8,000 second-line lower-risk MDS patients in the U.S. through prioritized engagement of high-volume community accounts. The company has seen an increase in prescribing accounts and demand, and continued efforts to raise awareness among physicians and patients, along with expanding access and favorable insurance coverage, are expected to drive higher adoption rates and, consequently, revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Geron launched a $150 million "at-the-market" (ATM) sales agreement for common stock with TD Securities (USA) LLC (TD Cowen) in February 2026, as part of a universal shelf registration.
- In May 2025, stockholders approved amendments to equity incentive and employee stock purchase plans, increasing the share reserve by 20 million and 6 million shares, respectively, for employee stock-based compensation.
- The company recently completed an upsized underwritten public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants, generating total gross proceeds of $227.8 million, intended to fund preparatory activities for the potential U.S. commercial launch of imetelstat.
Inbound Investments
- In January 2026, Geron amended its 5-year senior secured term loan facility with Pharmakon Advisors, LP, extending the deadline to July 30, 2026, for requesting Tranche B ($75 million) and Tranche C ($50 million) loans.
- As of June 30, 2025, Geron maintained approximately $433 million in cash and marketable securities, with access to additional debt funding through its Pharmakon loan agreement.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, Geron expects total operating expenses to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million, reflecting continued investment in RYTELO's commercial strategy and clinical development.
- Total costs and operating expenses in 2025 were $254.7 million.
- In December 2025, Geron initiated a strategic restructuring, including a workforce reduction, incurring $17.0 million in restructuring charges aimed at lowering future expenses.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
GERN has outperformed 74% of its 377 Biotechnology peers over 5Y. Biotechnology ranks 10th of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Biotechnology constituents that GERN has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
49%
of 468 industry peers · -7.5% return
3Y
44%
of 417 industry peers · -42.3% return
5Y
74%
of 377 industry peers · -9.5% return
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Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Biotechnology is GERN's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 11.6% | 44.3% | 89.1% | CAH 382% · MCK 344% · COR 169% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 33.1% | -7.9% | -0.7% | OSCR 80% · HQY 37% · ELV 12% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 18.1% | 34.7% | -2.4% | HIMS 250% · RDNT 151% · DGX 68% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 5.4% | 11.5% | -4.7% | NHC 271% · THC 259% · ENSG 135% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -1.9% | -1.3% | -20.7% | POCI 11788% · UFPT 362% · GKOS 203% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 20.3% | -6.4% | -38.9% | LNTH 271% · HAE 54% · MMSI 20% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | -9.2% | 9.6% | -40.4% | LQDA 2252% · INDV 1097% · ETON 1010% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 113 | 4.7% | -9.1% | -68.4% | SNWV 1820% · NTRA 231% · MEDP 211% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -26.8% | -50.0% | -78.6% | SPOK 71% · HSTM 1% · VEEV -10% |
| Biotechnology ← | 378 | -4.0% | -21.9% | -79.0% | CELZ 1291% · DNTH 1151% · ELVN 997% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Geron Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Geron Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Geron (GERN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Why Geron Stock Moved: GERN Stock Has Lost 60% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 08/08/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 138.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 156.5 |
| Rev LTM | 34,276 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,571 |
| FCF LTM | 10,808 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,245 |
| CFO LTM | 12,630 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,304 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 47.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.1% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA217779 | RYTELO | imetelstat sodium | powder | 6062024 | 10.0% | 2.3% | -58.9% | -69.9% | -68.1% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA217779 | RYTELO | imetelstat sodium | powder | 6062024 | 10.0% | 2.3% | -58.9% | -69.9% | -68.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development of therapeutic products for oncology | 184 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 184 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Development of therapeutic products for oncology | -69 | -174 |
| Total | -69 | -174 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Development of therapeutic products for oncology | -84 | -175 |
| Total | -84 | -175 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.45 | $1.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -14.4% | -14.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 71.1% | 64.8% |
| Downside Capture | -14.10 | 173.64 |
| Upside Capture | -64.75 | 133.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.8% | 26.2% |
GERN Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.66 | -0.52 | -0.02 | 1.09 | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | 1.84 | 0.35 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | 4.32 | 3.24 | 2.23 | 1.94 | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Up Capture | -82% | -82% | -60% | 53% | 136% | 79% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 14 | 23 | 47 | 102 | 319 |
| Down Capture | -605% | -338% | -216% | 108% | 128% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 32 | 62 | 119 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GERN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GERN | -6.8% | 64.7% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 25.2% | 16.1% | 1.20 | 32.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.2% | 13.0% | 0.88 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 29.3% | 0.44 | 14.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.6% | 20.7% | 1.75 | -12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 13.7% | 0.08 | 14.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.2% | 44.8% | -0.46 | 10.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GERN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GERN | -13.5% | 71.0% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.6% | 15.2% | 0.25 | 27.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 19.5% | 0.41 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 27.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.6% | 0.41 | 16.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GERN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GERN | -11.2% | 72.6% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.8% | 16.7% | 0.53 | 23.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 18.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.2% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 9.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -11.8% | -26.2% | -19.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -5.2% | 8.7% | 13.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.8% | -9.1% | 18.2% |
| 2/26/2025 | -32.1% | -30.0% | -28.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.5% | -9.4% | -8.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.9% | -2.6% | -6.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.2% | -6.6% | -13.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.7% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -8.2% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.3% | 14.6% | 43.6% |
| Max Negative | -32.1% | -30.0% | -28.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -11.8% | -26.2% | -19.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -5.2% | 8.7% | 13.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.8% | -9.1% | 18.2% |
| 2/26/2025 | -32.1% | -30.0% | -28.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.5% | -9.4% | -8.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.9% | -2.6% | -6.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.2% | -6.6% | -13.0% |
| 1/8/2024 | 7.0% | 1.0% | -6.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | -7.8% | -4.1% | 3.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -21.5% |
| 5/11/2023 | 2.5% | 7.1% | 27.7% |
| 3/16/2023 | -4.5% | -14.0% | -22.6% |
| 1/4/2023 | -22.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | -5.6% | -3.3% | 7.0% |
| 8/11/2022 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 35.6% |
| 5/9/2022 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| 3/10/2022 | -0.9% | 6.4% | 43.6% |
| 1/10/2022 | 0.9% | 2.6% | -13.7% |
| 11/10/2021 | -1.9% | -9.0% | -16.0% |
| 8/16/2021 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 13.3% |
| 5/10/2021 | 11.2% | 14.4% | 20.0% |
| 3/11/2021 | -9.0% | -7.4% | -24.9% |
| 1/8/2021 | 1.8% | 0.9% | 22.0% |
| 11/5/2020 | -3.3% | 6.6% | -2.7% |
| 8/6/2020 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.7% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -8.2% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.3% | 14.6% | 43.6% |
| Max Negative | -32.1% | -30.0% | -28.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/12/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robertson, Michelle | EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 1.94 | 9,855 | 19,119 | 34,231 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robertson, Michelle | EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 1.94 | 9,855 | 19,119 | 34,231 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 24, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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