Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GERN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -9.3% stock movement for Geron (GERN) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Geron's Q3 2025 revenue fell short of analyst expectations.**

The company reported total revenues of $47.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, missing the analyst consensus estimate, which ranged from approximately $53.9 million to $54.49 million. This revenue shortfall contributed to a negative pre-market price movement for the stock following the earnings announcement on November 5, 2025. **2. Demand for RYTELO, Geron's key product, declined quarter-over-quarter.**

The Q3 2025 financial results revealed a 3% quarter-over-quarter decrease in demand for RYTELO. This indicated that despite efforts to increase its use, revenue growth for the product faced challenges, leading to investor concerns. **3. Investors reacted cautiously to the company's mixed Q3 2025 performance.**

While Geron achieved a significant 67% year-over-year increase in RYTELO revenue, the overall financial performance for Q3 2025 was considered mixed due to the revenue miss and declining demand. This led to a cautious response from investors, contributing to negative pre-market trading activity and a general decline in the stock's recent performance. **4. Operating expenses increased in Q3 2025.**

Research and development expenses, as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses, increased in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. These increases were primarily driven by investments in chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC), personnel-related expenses, and enhanced sales and marketing programs. **5. Analyst sentiment and technical indicators showed a negative trend.**

While the average analyst rating remained a "Buy," some firms, such as Goldman Sachs, initiated a "Strong Sell" rating on GERN in July 2025, and Scotiabank downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Hold" in May 2025, reducing its price target. Technical analysis also indicated a downtrend starting in late November 2025, with the stock experiencing a significant decline over a 10-day period leading up to December 3, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GERN Return17%-23%98%-13%68%-65%-10%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GERN Win Rate42%42%58%50%58%20% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GERN Max Drawdown-35%-25%-19%-28%-17%-70% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGERNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-52.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven182 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-84.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven550.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven325.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Geron's stock fell -52.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/3/2021. A -52.9% loss requires a 112.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Geron (GERN)

Better Bets than Geron (GERN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Geron

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GERNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price1.27463.13-2.541.07-1.91
Mkt Cap0.8118.4----59.6
Rev LTM18311,723-0--183
Op Inc LTM-63-92--5---63
FCF LTM-1333,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1712,064--10---10
CFO LTM-1333,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1702,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

GERNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM522.1%10.3%----266.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3,214.2%10.5%----1,612.3%
Rev Chg Q67.1%11.0%----39.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM11.5%2.7%----7.1%
Op Mgn LTM-34.4%-0.8%-----17.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-19,342.9%26.2%-----9,658.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM12.7%1.0%----6.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-72.5%31.7%-----20.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-17,301.2%23.1%-----8,639.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-72.5%28.5%-----22.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17,397.4%19.8%-----8,688.8%

Valuation

GERNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap0.8118.4----59.6
P/S5.08.5----6.8
P/EBIT-19.922.4----1.3
P/E-11.427.2----7.9
P/CFO-6.926.9----10.0
Total Yield-8.8%3.7%-----2.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.7%2.3%-----4.7%
D/E0.10.0----0.1
Net D/E-0.3-0.0-----0.2

Returns

GERNVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn5.8%8.7%----7.3%
3M Rtn-9.3%16.8%----3.7%
6M Rtn-17.5%3.9%-----6.8%
12M Rtn-67.8%1.3%-----33.3%
3Y Rtn-44.8%44.1%-----0.3%
1M Excs Rtn5.9%8.7%----7.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.3%11.3%-----1.0%
6M Excs Rtn-32.3%-10.8%-----21.5%
12M Excs Rtn-82.7%-14.6%-----48.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.3%-25.9%-----71.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development of therapeutic products for oncology01100
Total01100


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity77,603,709
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.0%
Average Daily Volume11,097,819
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.99
Basic Shares Quantity667,101,756
Short % of Basic Shares11.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021