Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 522%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -34%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

GERN Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GERN Return17%-23%98%-13%68%-70%-21%
Peers Return-15%-9%-6%-3%-3%-19%-45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GERN Win Rate42%42%58%50%58%20% 
Peers Win Rate18%15%23%31%22%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GERN Max Drawdown-35%-25%-19%-28%-17%-70% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-13%-14%-15%-30%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGERNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-52.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven182 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-84.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven550.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven325.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND


In The Past

Geron's stock fell -52.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/3/2021. A -52.9% loss requires a 112.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Geron (GERN)

Better Bets than Geron (GERN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-7.7%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.5%-5.5%-5.5%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.6%-16.6%-16.6%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%9.6%-7.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-7.7%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.5%-5.5%-5.5%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.6%-16.6%-16.6%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%9.6%-7.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Geron

Financials

GERNVRTXAPMBBOTGDTCHINDMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Aptorum BridgeBi.CytoMed .Vyome  
Mkt Price1.07409.471.3812.151.885.513.69
Mkt Cap0.7104.7----52.7
Rev LTM18311,723-0--183
Op Inc LTM-63-92--93---92
FCF LTM-1333,337--60---60
FCF 3Y Avg-1712,064----946
CFO LTM-1333,718--60---60
CFO 3Y Avg-1702,419----1,124

Growth & Margins

GERNVRTXAPMBBOTGDTCHINDMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Aptorum BridgeBi.CytoMed .Vyome  
Rev Chg LTM522.1%10.3%----266.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3,214.2%10.5%----1,612.3%
Rev Chg Q67.1%11.0%----39.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM11.5%2.7%----7.1%
Op Mgn LTM-34.4%-0.8%-----17.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-19,342.9%26.2%-----9,658.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM12.7%1.0%----6.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-72.5%31.7%-----20.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-17,301.2%23.1%-----8,639.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-72.5%28.5%-----22.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17,397.4%19.8%-----8,688.8%

Valuation

GERNVRTXAPMBBOTGDTCHINDMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Aptorum BridgeBi.CytoMed .Vyome  
Mkt Cap0.7104.7----52.7
P/S3.98.9----6.4
P/EBIT-15.523.5----4.0
P/E-8.928.5----9.8
P/CFO-5.428.1----11.4
Total Yield-11.2%3.5%-----3.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.7%2.3%-----4.7%
D/E0.20.0----0.1
Net D/E-0.4-0.0-----0.2

Returns

GERNVRTXAPMBBOTGDTCHINDMedian
NameGeron Vertex P.Aptorum BridgeBi.CytoMed .Vyome  
1M Rtn-23.0%-1.3%-41.8%-1.8%-16.4%0.2%-9.1%
3M Rtn-16.4%11.7%9.5%-0.5%-5.0%
6M Rtn-9.3%-3.7%60.3%--15.3%--6.5%
12M Rtn-74.8%-20.8%12.2%--18.6%--19.7%
3Y Rtn-48.6%32.4%-78.6%----48.6%
1M Excs Rtn-22.9%-1.2%-41.7%-1.7%-16.4%0.3%-9.0%
3M Excs Rtn-26.9%3.8%-8.4%--1.1%--4.8%
6M Excs Rtn-28.2%-22.5%41.4%--34.2%--25.4%
12M Excs Rtn-91.0%-34.4%-14.9%--44.7%--39.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-129.2%-46.9%-157.1%----129.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development of therapeutic products for oncology01100
Total01100


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity86,917,382
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume8,282,033
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.49
Basic Shares Quantity667,101,756
Short % of Basic Shares13.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-5.2%  
8/6/202515.8%12.5%15.0%
5/7/2025-0.8%-9.1%18.2%
2/26/2025-32.1%-30.0%-28.3%
11/7/20240.5%-9.4%-8.0%
8/8/20240.9%-2.6%-6.8%
5/2/2024-3.2%-6.6%-13.0%
11/2/2023-7.8%-4.1%3.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive7810
# Negative131210
Median Positive3.1%6.5%14.2%
Median Negative-4.5%-7.4%-16.0%
Max Positive15.8%12.5%43.6%
Max Negative-32.1%-30.0%-28.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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