Incyte (INCY)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $98.22 | Market Cap: $19.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Incyte (INCY)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $98.22Market Cap: $19.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 7.3% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% | Key risksINCY key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration on its lead drug Jakafi ahead of its 2028 patent expiration and [2] a challenging history of setbacks and failures in its clinical development pipeline. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 7.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
| Key risksINCY key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration on its lead drug Jakafi ahead of its 2028 patent expiration and [2] a challenging history of setbacks and failures in its clinical development pipeline. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Incyte (INCY) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance Offset by Limited Upside Expectations.
Incyte reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. The company posted an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.81, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.31 by 38.17%. Revenue also rose 20.9% year-over-year to $1.27 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.22 billion. Despite these strong beats and higher net income of $303.3 million, the stock's immediate reaction was reportedly muted, suggesting that positive news may have already been factored into the share price, or investors maintained a cautious outlook, thereby limiting a significant upward breakout.
2. Balanced Impact of Promising Pipeline Developments and Persistent Patent Cliff Concerns.
During the specified period, Incyte announced several positive clinical trial updates and regulatory milestones that should have provided upward momentum. This included positive pivotal Phase 2 results for zilurgisertib in fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP), with an FDA Priority Review PDUFA date set for September 26, 2026. Additionally, positive Phase 3 results for tafasitamab in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) were presented, and the FDA accepted a regulatory application for povorcitinib in moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa, targeting a potential U.S. launch in early 2027. However, these advancements are counterbalanced by ongoing investor concerns regarding the impending patent expiration of its leading product, Jakafi, in 2028, which represents a significant portion of its revenue and remains a key point of debate among analysts.
Show more
Incyte (INCY) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance Offset by Limited Upside Expectations.
Incyte reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. The company posted an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.81, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.31 by 38.17%. Revenue also rose 20.9% year-over-year to $1.27 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.22 billion. Despite these strong beats and higher net income of $303.3 million, the stock's immediate reaction was reportedly muted, suggesting that positive news may have already been factored into the share price, or investors maintained a cautious outlook, thereby limiting a significant upward breakout.
2. Balanced Impact of Promising Pipeline Developments and Persistent Patent Cliff Concerns.
During the specified period, Incyte announced several positive clinical trial updates and regulatory milestones that should have provided upward momentum. This included positive pivotal Phase 2 results for zilurgisertib in fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP), with an FDA Priority Review PDUFA date set for September 26, 2026. Additionally, positive Phase 3 results for tafasitamab in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) were presented, and the FDA accepted a regulatory application for povorcitinib in moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa, targeting a potential U.S. launch in early 2027. However, these advancements are counterbalanced by ongoing investor concerns regarding the impending patent expiration of its leading product, Jakafi, in 2028, which represents a significant portion of its revenue and remains a key point of debate among analysts.
3. Significant Insider Selling Activity by Key Executives.
During the period, two prominent Incyte executives engaged in substantial stock sales, which may have contributed to investor caution and capped upward price movement. Michael James Morrissey, EVP, sold 58,331 shares for an estimated $5,675,001. Additionally, Pablo J. Cagnoni, President and Global Head of Research and Development, sold 56,002 shares for an estimated $5,444,331. These transactions, each exceeding the $5 million threshold, could be interpreted by the market as a lack of strong conviction from internal stakeholders, thereby offsetting positive company news.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.0% change in INCY stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.27 | 98.22 | -3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,141 | 5,361 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.0% | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 13.7 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 197 | 199 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INCY | -3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 24.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.4% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.0% change in INCY stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.46 | 98.22 | -6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,813 | 5,361 | 11.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.7% | 26.7% | 8.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.2 | 13.7 | -20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 196 | 199 | -1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INCY | -6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 26.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.4% | 49.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.0% change in INCY stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 5441.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.06 | 98.22 | 51.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,413 | 5,361 | 21.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.5% | 26.7% | 5441.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 592.5 | 13.7 | -97.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 194 | 199 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INCY | 51.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 24.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.6% | 44.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.6% change in INCY stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 185.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.55 | 98.22 | 59.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,470 | 5,361 | 54.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 26.7% | 185.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.3 | 13.7 | -67.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 223 | 199 | 11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INCY | 59.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.9% | 40.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INCY Return | -16% | 9% | -22% | 10% | 43% | 0% | 14% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 13% | -7% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INCY Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 75% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 40% | 53% | 53% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INCY Max Drawdown | -37% | -20% | -39% | -23% | -27% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -20% | -26% | -27% | -24% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BMY, GILD, AMGN, REGN, PFE. See INCY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 497 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Incyte's stock fell -21.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | INCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 497 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 298 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 228 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 415.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 303 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Incyte's stock fell -21.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Incyte (INCY)
Incyte Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of proprietary therapeutic products both in the United States and internationally. The company specializes in creating innovative medicines, primarily in oncology and inflammation/autoimmunity, to address significant unmet medical needs for patients.
Incyte's core commercialized products include JAKAFI, a key treatment for myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera; PEMAZYRE, a fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor used in various liquid and solid tumor types driven by specific genetic alterations; and ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor for chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. These drugs serve patients with specific rare blood cancers and genetically defined tumor types.
The company also maintains a robust clinical pipeline, advancing candidates like ruxolitinib and itacitinib for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), as well as pemigatinib, parsaclisib, and retifanlimab for a wide range of cancers including bladder cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, various lymphomas, and non-small cell lung cancer. Through both internal development and strategic collaborations with other pharmaceutical firms, Incyte aims to broaden its portfolio and impact a wider patient population facing challenging oncological and inflammatory conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Incyte:
- Like a more specialized Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), focusing on innovative therapies for certain cancers and immune disorders.
- Gilead Sciences, but with its primary focus on developing advanced treatments for blood cancers and autoimmune conditions rather than antivirals.
- Think of a focused Amgen, specifically targeting difficult-to-treat cancers and inflammatory conditions with its proprietary drugs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Incyte's major products are proprietary therapeutic drugs:
- JAKAFI: A drug used for the treatment of myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera.
- PEMAZYRE: A fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor acting as an oncogenic driver in various liquid and solid tumor types.
- ICLUSIG: A kinase inhibitor used to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Incyte (symbol: INCY) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes proprietary therapeutics, which are prescription drugs. As such, it sells primarily to other companies within the healthcare supply chain, rather than directly to individual patients. These customers typically include:
- Pharmaceutical wholesale distributors
- Retail and mail-order pharmacies
- Hospitals and clinics
However, the provided background information does not identify specific major customer companies by name that purchase Incyte's commercialized products (e.g., JAKAFI, PEMAZYRE, ICLUSIG) for distribution or direct patient use. The companies listed in the background are primarily collaboration partners for research, development, and co-commercialization efforts, not direct customers for Incyte's currently marketed drugs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd. (NVS)
- Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
- Agenus Inc. (AGEN)
- Calithera Biosciences, Inc
- MacroGenics, Inc. (MGNX)
- Merus N.V. (MRUS)
- Syros Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SYRS)
- Innovent Biologics, Inc. (1801.HK)
- Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB)
- Cellenkos, Inc.
- Nimble Therapeutics
- MorphoSys AG (MOR)
- Xencor, Inc. (XNCR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bill Meury, President and Chief Executive Officer
Bill Meury joined Incyte in 2025 as President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors. He has over three decades of industry experience in organizational strategy, pipeline and commercial execution, and capital allocation. Before Incyte, Mr. Meury was CEO of Anthos Therapeutics, which was acquired by Novartis for $925 million. Prior to Anthos, he served as President and CEO of Karuna Therapeutics, leading its transition into a fully integrated R&D and commercial organization, which later merged with Bristol Myers Squibb in a $14 billion deal. He also served as a Partner at Hildred Capital Management, a private equity firm focused on healthcare. Earlier in his career, he spent more than two decades at Allergan, serving as Chief Commercial Officer, overseeing a global business with $16 billion in revenue and approximately 8,000 employees, until its acquisition by AbbVie.
Thomas Tray, Principal Financial Officer
Thomas Tray was appointed as Incyte's Principal Financial Officer, effective September 16, 2025. He previously served as the Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Tray joined Incyte Corporation in June 2005 as Manager of External Reporting and has held roles of increasing responsibility since then. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from Mount Saint Mary's University and an Executive MBA in Pharmaceutical Marketing from Saint Joseph's University.
Pablo J. Cagnoni, M.D., President, Head of Research & Development
Dr. Pablo J. Cagnoni joined Incyte in 2023 as President, Head of Research & Development. In this role, he oversees Incyte's research and development efforts across its portfolio in Hematology, Oncology, and Inflammation and Autoimmunity. Prior to Incyte, Dr. Cagnoni served as CEO of Laronde and held leadership roles at Rubius Therapeutics, Tizona Therapeutics, Onyx Pharmaceuticals, and Novartis Oncology.
Steven H. Stein, M.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Steven Stein joined Incyte in 2015 and currently serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer. As CMO, he is responsible for clinical development, clinical operations, pharmacovigilance, statistics and data management, and regulatory affairs. Before joining Incyte, he worked at Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, most recently as Senior Vice President, U.S. Clinical Development & Medical Affairs for Novartis Oncology.
Richard Hoffman, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Richard Hoffman joined Incyte in December 2025 as Executive Vice President and General Counsel. He leads the Company's global legal and compliance functions and has over 20 years of experience advising and supporting biopharmaceutical and life science companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Incyte's business:
-
Jakafi Patent Cliff: Incyte faces a significant risk due to the upcoming patent expiration of its flagship drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib). Jakafi is a major revenue driver, accounting for a substantial portion of the company's total net product revenue, with some reports indicating it generated almost $4 billion yearly. The generic launch date for Jakafi in the U.S. is estimated around March 22, 2029, with its patents expiring before 2030. Analysts project a dramatic revenue decline, potentially over 50% in the first year, as generic versions enter the market. Incyte is actively planning for a "post-Jakafi era" to manage this loss of exclusivity.
-
Pipeline Dependence and Clinical Development Risk: To mitigate the impact of the Jakafi patent expiration, Incyte is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of its pipeline products. The company is investing significantly in its late-stage pipeline, with multiple anticipated product launches. However, pipeline execution carries inherent risks, as evidenced by past clinical trial setbacks. The failure of key candidates to achieve regulatory approval or market uptake could severely impact Incyte's ability to offset the revenue decline from Jakafi.
-
Intense Competition and Regulatory/Pricing Pressures: Incyte operates in the highly competitive biopharmaceutical industry, where it constantly faces the threat of new entrants and existing competitors introducing alternative therapies that could diminish demand for its products. Additionally, the company is subject to stringent regulatory requirements for drug approval and commercialization. There is also an ongoing risk from political and legislative changes, such as efforts to negotiate lower drug prices, which could adversely affect the pricing and profitability of Incyte's products, including Jakafi.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Incyte (NASDAQ: INCY) offers a range of proprietary therapeutics with the following addressable market sizes for its main products:
- JAKAFI (ruxolitinib):
- For Myelofibrosis: The global myelofibrosis treatment market was valued at approximately USD 2.2 billion in 2024, with projections to increase to USD 5.638 billion in 2034 across the 7 major markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan). The US alone represented nearly USD 1,700 million of this market in 2024.
- For Polycythemia Vera: The market size for Polycythemia Vera in the 7 major markets (7MM: United States, EU4, UK, and Japan) was approximately USD 1.90 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase during the forecast period (2025-2034). The United States market for Polycythemia Vera was approximately USD 1.44 billion in 2024. The global Polycythemia Vera treatment market was valued at USD 8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 14.8 billion by 2035.
- PEMAZYRE (pemigatinib):
- For Cholangiocarcinoma: The global cholangiocarcinoma therapeutics market was estimated at USD 1.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 2.2 billion by 2030. Another report indicates the global market size was USD 583.65 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 2.42 billion by 2035. North America is anticipated to hold the largest share of this market, with about 35% by 2035.
- ICLUSIG:
- For Chronic Myeloid Leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia: The 7 major chronic myeloid leukemia market was valued at USD 5.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 8.9 billion by 2035. The global chronic myeloid leukemia treatment market was valued at USD 8.6 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 14.3 billion by 2033. North America held a strong lead with over 42% market share in 2023.
- ruxolitinib for steroid-refractory chronic graft-versus-host-diseases (GVHD) and itacitinib for naïve chronic GVHD: Null
- pemigatinib for bladder cancer, myeloproliferative syndrome, and tumor agnostic: Null
- Parsaclisib:
- For Follicular Lymphoma: The follicular lymphoma market size in the 7 major markets (7MM) is expected to grow from USD 1,702 million in 2025 to USD 3,081 million in 2036. The United States accounted for the largest market share in the 7MM, with approximately USD 1,000 million in 2024. The global follicular lymphoma drugs market was valued at USD 1.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3.05 billion by 2032.
- For Marginal Zone Lymphoma: The marginal zone lymphoma market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) reached a value of USD 1.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.0 billion by 2035. The global Marginal Zone Lymphoma (MZL) treatment market, estimated at USD 2 billion in 2025, is projected to reach USD 3.8 billion by 2033.
- For Mantle Cell Lymphoma: The global mantle cell lymphoma therapeutics market size was valued at USD 1.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2.78 billion by 2034. North America is the largest market, accounting for approximately 45% of the global market share. Another source states the global market size was USD 2.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 3.81 billion in 2030.
- Retifanlimab:
- For MSI-high endometrial cancer: Null
- For Merkel Cell Carcinoma: The global Merkel cell carcinoma therapeutics market size was valued at USD 1.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.71 billion by 2034. North America holds 42% of this market. Another report estimates the global market at USD 3.24 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 4.53 billion by 2033.
- For Anal Cancer: The global anal cancer market size was valued at USD 928.91 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1444.76 million in 2033. North America is the most significant global anal cancer market shareholder. The U.S. anal cancer market was valued at USD 0.43 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 0.75 billion by 2032.
- For Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: The global non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market was estimated at USD 20.2 billion in 2024, expected to grow to USD 53.9 billion in 2034. The NSCLC market in the 7 major markets is projected to reach approximately USD 65 billion by 2034. North America is the largest market, with an estimated share of 38.7% in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Incyte (INCY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Continued Growth and Lifecycle Management of Jakafi (ruxolitinib): Jakafi, Incyte's flagship product, is anticipated to maintain strong demand across its approved indications, including myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The projected launch of Jakafi XR (extended-release) in mid-2026 is expected to contribute to revenue by facilitating a conversion from the immediate-release version, targeting a 15-20% uptake rate before the loss of exclusivity for the original formulation.
- Significant Expansion and International Uptake of Opzelura (ruxolitinib cream): Opzelura is a crucial growth driver for Incyte, particularly in the treatment of vitiligo and atopic dermatitis (AD). The company expects substantial contributions from international launches, especially the anticipated rollout of Opzelura for moderate AD in Europe.
- Increasing Contributions from the Broader Hematology and Oncology Portfolio: Incyte's hematology and oncology portfolio, excluding Jakafi, is poised for continued growth. Products such as Niktimvo (axatilimab-csfr), Monjuvi (tafasitamab-cxix), Zynyz, and Pemazyre are demonstrating strong performance. Niktimvo, a recently launched product, has shown robust uptake, while Monjuvi and Zynyz have experienced growth driven by label expansions. Pemazyre has also received approvals for new indications, further bolstering this segment.
- Advancement and Potential New Approvals from the Late-Stage Pipeline, particularly Povorcitinib: Incyte's robust pipeline, with 14 pivotal clinical trials expected by the end of 2026, represents a significant source of future revenue. Povorcitinib, an oral JAK1 inhibitor, is a key late-stage asset with potential for substantial revenue contribution, especially with its NDA submission for hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) in Europe and positive Phase 2 results in chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU).
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In May 2024, Incyte's Board of Directors authorized a $2.0 billion share repurchase program.
- In June 2024, Incyte completed a modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer and a separate agreement to repurchase approximately $2.0 billion of its common stock, representing about 14.8% of outstanding shares.
- Annual share buybacks by Incyte totaled $2.005 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Incyte adopted the 2024 Inducement Stock Incentive Plan, reserving 2,000,000 shares of common stock for issuance.
- Incyte's shares outstanding increased by 0.88% in 2023 from 2022, but then declined by 6.82% in 2024 and 4.67% in 2025, reflecting a net reduction in shares outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2024, Incyte acquired exclusive global rights for tafasitamab, subsequently recognizing all revenue from its sales in the United States.
Capital Expenditures
- Incyte's capital expenditures were $77.83 million in 2022, $32.49 million in 2023, $86.26 million in 2024, and $58.87 million in 2025.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are $86.42 million.
- Capital expenditures primarily support the company's significant research and development efforts and the continued investment in its late-stage development assets.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 126.8 |
| Rev LTM | 33,477 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,234 |
| FCF LTM | 9,040 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,736 |
| CFO LTM | 10,781 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,116 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 25.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics | 5,141 | 4,241 | 3,696 | ||
| Milestone and contract revenues | 165 | 95 | |||
| Product revenues, net | 2,747 | 2,322 | |||
| Product royalty revenues | 483 | 569 | |||
| Total | 5,141 | 4,241 | 3,696 | 3,395 | 2,986 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Global discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics | 1,287 | 33 |
| Total | 1,287 | 33 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $98.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 19.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/04/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $98.17 | $96.80 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.2% | 33.3% |
| Downside Capture | -9.91 | 53.48 |
| Upside Capture | 21.01 | 81.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.1% | 22.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.17 | 0.80 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 0.57 |
| Up Beta | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.18 | 1.40 | 1.05 | 0.46 |
| Down Beta | 1.32 | 1.18 | 1.09 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Up Capture | 81% | 39% | 56% | 87% | 111% | 38% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 63 | 135 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 174% | 115% | 120% | 134% | 90% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 61 | 113 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY | 44.9% | 33.2% | 1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 14.0% | 15.0% | 0.66 | 44.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 32.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 11.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY | 3.8% | 29.4% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.7% | 0.19 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY | 2.0% | 34.3% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.46 | 46.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 38.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 26.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 8.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | -8.2% | -7.2% | -13.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | 10.3% | 11.2% | 19.7% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.5% | 4.4% | 9.1% |
| 2/10/2025 | -7.9% | -5.0% | -8.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | 12.0% | 15.3% | 13.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.2% | -9.6% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | -1.0% | 2.9% | 8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.4% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.1% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 15.3% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -12.7% | -18.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | -8.2% | -7.2% | -13.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | 10.3% | 11.2% | 19.7% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.5% | 4.4% | 9.1% |
| 2/10/2025 | -7.9% | -5.0% | -8.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | 12.0% | 15.3% | 13.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.2% | -9.6% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | -1.0% | 2.9% | 8.3% |
| 2/13/2024 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 5/2/2023 | -7.1% | -12.7% | -18.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | -4.0% | -5.1% | -12.5% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.5% | 2.1% | 7.2% |
| 8/2/2022 | -6.2% | -4.4% | -9.6% |
| 5/3/2022 | 1.5% | -4.5% | -1.4% |
| 2/8/2022 | -4.5% | -10.0% | -1.8% |
| 11/2/2021 | -8.5% | -4.1% | -6.3% |
| 8/3/2021 | -0.7% | -4.0% | -2.5% |
| 5/4/2021 | -5.3% | -4.8% | -3.8% |
| 2/9/2021 | -4.4% | -12.3% | -16.3% |
| 11/5/2020 | -7.2% | -9.3% | -8.8% |
| 8/4/2020 | -1.8% | -7.3% | -8.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.4% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.1% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 15.3% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -12.7% | -18.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/30/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total net product revenue | 4.77 Bil | 4.86 Bil | 4.94 Bil | 13.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.28 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Jakafi net product revenue | 3.22 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.27 Bil | 6.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.06 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Opzelura net product revenue | 750.00 Mil | 770.00 Mil | 790.00 Mil | 18.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Hematology and Oncology net product revenue | 800.00 Mil | 840.00 Mil | 880.00 Mil | 49.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 562.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total GAAP R&D and SG&A operating expenses | 3.50 Bil | 3.58 Bil | 3.67 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Total non-GAAP R&D and SG&A operating expenses | 3.21 Bil | 3.29 Bil | 3.38 Bil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net Product Revenue | 4.23 Bil | 4.28 Bil | 4.32 Bil | ||||
| 2025 Jakafi Net Product Revenue | 3.05 Bil | 3.06 Bil | 3.08 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 3.02 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Opzelura Net Product Revenue | 630.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 670.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Other Oncology Net Product Revenue | 550.00 Mil | 562.50 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 10.3% | Raised | Guidance: 510.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/10/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 100.00 | 2,639 | 263,900 | 2,113,200 | Form |
| 2 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 97.35 | 2,051 | 199,665 | 2,057,200 | Form |
| 3 | Clancy, Paul J | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 94.93 | 15,000 | 1,423,950 | 2,253,733 | Form | |
| 4 | Cagnoni, Pablo J | President, Global Head of R&D | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 96.50 | 18,667 | 1,801,366 | 25,349,778 | Form |
| 5 | Cagnoni, Pablo J | President, R&D | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 94.24 | 18,667 | 1,759,178 | 22,127,552 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 100.00 | 2,639 | 263,900 | 2,113,200 | Form |
| 2 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 97.35 | 2,051 | 199,665 | 2,057,200 | Form |
| 3 | Clancy, Paul J | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 94.93 | 15,000 | 1,423,950 | 2,253,733 | Form | |
| 4 | Cagnoni, Pablo J | President, Global Head of R&D | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 96.50 | 18,667 | 1,801,366 | 25,349,778 | Form |
| 5 | Cagnoni, Pablo J | President, R&D | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 94.24 | 18,667 | 1,759,178 | 22,127,552 | Form |
| 6 | Cagnoni, Pablo J | President, R&D | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 100.91 | 18,668 | 1,883,788 | 23,693,668 | Form |
| 7 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 100.00 | 2,774 | 277,400 | 2,297,300 | Form |
| 8 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 98.25 | 600 | 58,950 | 2,257,097 | Form |
| 9 | Morrissey, Michael James | EVP, Head of Tech. Operations | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 97.26 | 4,323 | 420,455 | 2,675,331 | Form |
| 10 | Morrissey, Michael James | EVP, Head of Tech. Operations | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 97.29 | 54,008 | 5,254,547 | 3,096,805 | Form |
| 11 | Mayes, Patrick A | EVP & Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 94.94 | 255 | 24,210 | 5,697,444 | Form |
| 12 | Mayes, Patrick A | EVP & Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 95.58 | 5,553 | 530,756 | 5,760,224 | Form |
| 13 | Stein, Steven H | EVP & Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 102.51 | 20,105 | 2,060,964 | 6,471,354 | Form |
| 14 | Stein, Steven H | EVP & Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 102.96 | 2,559 | 263,475 | 10,329,668 | Form |
| 15 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 103.00 | 600 | 61,800 | 2,428,019 | Form |
| 16 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 102.00 | 169 | 17,238 | 2,465,646 | Form |
| 17 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 104.36 | 278 | 29,012 | 2,772,741 | Form |
| 18 | Hoppenot, Herve | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 105.46 | 187,500 | 19,773,750 | 34,764,467 | Form | |
| 19 | Stein, Steven H | EVP & Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 102.20 | 5,233 | 534,813 | 10,514,949 | Form |
| 20 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 101.36 | 598 | 60,613 | 2,693,034 | Form |
| 21 | Heeson, Lee | EVP, Head of Incyte Intl | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 94.02 | 3,074 | 289,017 | 2,749,239 | Form |
| 22 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 85.13 | 277 | 23,581 | 2,261,819 | Form |
| 23 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 85.54 | 3,501 | 299,476 | 2,272,712 | Form |
| 24 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 87.65 | 599 | 52,502 | 2,909,980 | Form |
| 25 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 9182025 | 83.15 | 278 | 23,116 | 2,760,580 | Form |
| 26 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 84.97 | 598 | 50,812 | 2,821,004 | Form |
| 27 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 86.81 | 277 | 24,046 | 2,882,092 | Form |
| 28 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 75.77 | 598 | 45,310 | 2,515,564 | Form |
| 29 | Stein, Steven H | EVP & Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 67.94 | 3,706 | 251,786 | 6,990,075 | Form |
| 30 | Flannelly, Barry P | EVP & General Manager US | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 68.36 | 1,340 | 91,602 | 2,402,786 | Form |
| 31 | Iyengar, Vijay K | EVP, GMAPPS | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 68.36 | 983 | 67,198 | 2,771,314 | Form |
| 32 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 68.36 | 785 | 53,663 | 2,269,552 | Form |
| 33 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 69.86 | 3,330 | 232,634 | 1,851,569 | Form |
| 34 | Iyengar, Vijay K | EVP, GMAPPS | Direct | Sell | 7162025 | 69.86 | 1,177 | 82,225 | 2,510,000 | Form |
| 35 | Flannelly, Barry P | EVP & General Manager US | Direct | Sell | 7162025 | 69.86 | 1,192 | 83,273 | 2,628,832 | Form |
| 36 | Stein, Steven H | EVP & Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7162025 | 68.47 | 14,952 | 1,023,763 | 6,673,497 | Form |
| 37 | Flannelly, Barry P | EVP & General Manager US | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 68.15 | 10,903 | 743,039 | 2,708,554 | Form |
| 38 | Iyengar, Vijay K | EVP, GMAPPS | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 68.15 | 8,617 | 587,275 | 2,569,440 | Form |
| 39 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 68.61 | 599 | 41,097 | 1,818,439 | Form |
| 40 | Denton, Sheila A | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 68.00 | 1,795 | 122,060 | 1,802,272 | Form |
| 41 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032025 | 64.88 | 651 | 42,237 | 1,427,555 | Form |
| 42 | Tray, Thomas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032025 | 65.71 | 963 | 63,279 | 1,488,594 | Form |
INCY Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives a low score because it fits the profile of a classic value trap. While statistically inexpensive, the valuation is depressed for a valid reason: a looming, structural patent cliff on its primary asset. The risk-reward is unattractive, with the potential upside from an unproven pipeline not sufficiently compensating for the high-impact risk of execution failure and the erosion of its core business.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: 'Transition / Profit Pivot', Secondary: 'Binary Innovator'The company's primary challenge is managing the transition from its maturing blockbuster, Jakafi, to a diversified portfolio, focusing on the growth of new products and managing profitability. This aligns with Type F. However, its heavy reliance on the success of late-stage clinical trials for future growth introduces a significant 'Binary Innovator' element (Type D).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is that Incyte can successfully manage the transition from its reliance on Jakafi by rapidly scaling its dermatology franchise (Opzelura) and delivering on key late-stage pipeline assets (e.g., povorcitinib) to create a durable, diversified revenue stream that more than offsets the inevitable Jakafi revenue decline post-2028.
- The Core Business (ex-Jakafi) Revenue grew at 53% YoY in FY2025, demonstrating successful execution on the diversification strategy.
- Opzelura, the key near-term growth pillar, saw net product revenue grow 33% YoY in FY2025 to $678 million.
- The 'Other Hematology/Oncology' portfolio grew 83% YoY to $583 million, driven by new launches like Niktimvo.
- Management is advancing a broad late-stage pipeline, with 14 pivotal trials expected to be underway by year-end 2026, providing multiple shots on goal for the next blockbuster.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the late-stage pipeline fails to produce new blockbusters and/or Opzelura's growth decelerates faster than expected. This would create a significant revenue and earnings gap post-2028 that the company cannot fill, leading to a major valuation de-rating as its primary earnings driver faces generic competition.
- Jakafi's composition of matter patent expires around 2028, creating a well-defined and significant revenue cliff.
- Opzelura's growth is already decelerating, with Q4 2025 YoY growth at 28%, down from 35% in the prior two quarters.
- 2026 guidance for Opzelura implies only a ~15% YoY increase, citing 'price actions to expand formulary coverage' as an offset to volume, suggesting increasing payer pressure.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Opzelura Net Product Revenue Growth YoY | Guidance of ~$750M-$790M for FY26 (~15% YoY growth) | This is the primary near-term growth driver meant to offset Jakafi. Any significant deviation below the guided growth rate confirms increasing payer pressure and market saturation, heightening the patent cliff risk. |
| Core Business (ex-Jakafi) Revenue Growth YoY | >30% YoY | This metric tracks the success of the overall diversification strategy. This portfolio must maintain a high growth rate to have a chance of closing the gap left by Jakafi post-2028. |
| Povorcitinib Clinical Trial Readouts | Positive Phase 3 data in Mid-2026 and Q4 2026 | As the most significant late-stage pipeline asset, its success or failure is a binary event that will dramatically alter the company's long-term growth trajectory and perception. |
Pipeline Execution vs. The Jakafi Patent Cliff
BULL VIEW
The diversification strategy is working. The ex-Jakafi portfolio grew 53% YoY in FY2025, proving Incyte can build new, multi-billion dollar revenue streams before the cliff hits.
CORE TENSION
Can the 'ex-Jakafi' growth portfolio, led by Opzelura and the pipeline, scale fast enough to offset the inevitable revenue collapse of the core Jakafi franchise post-2028?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Opzelura's 2026 guidance implies a YoY growth collapse to ~15% from 33% in FY2025, confirming the bear case of slowing momentum in the key diversification asset.
BEAR VIEW
It's too little, too late. Opzelura's growth is decelerating to ~15% (FY26 guidance), and the pipeline is unproven. The company will fail to fill the multi-billion dollar Jakafi gap.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-2026 | Povorcitinib Phase 3 Vitiligo Data Readout Watch: Binary Headline: A press release stating the trial successfully met its primary endpoint. This is the single most important pipeline catalyst. |
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Opzelura YoY growth vs. the full-year guidance of ~15%. Any result below this rate will confirm the deceleration thesis and pressure the stock. |
May 29 - June 2, 2026 | Tafasitamab First-Line DLBCL Data at ASCO Watch: Qualitative Headline: Is the full data perceived as 'practice-changing' or merely 'statistically significant,' determining its actual market potential. |
Late July / Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Core Business (ex-Jakafi) Revenue Growth YoY must remain above the >30% threshold to show the diversification strategy has durable momentum. |
Q4 2026 | Povorcitinib Phase 3 Prurigo Nodularis Data Watch: Binary Headline: A second successful Phase 3 readout for Povorcitinib would significantly de-risk its profile and expand its potential market. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 3, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: The stock surged following strong Q3 results, which featured robust Opzelura YoY growth of 35% and stable Jakafi performance, confirming the diversification story was on track at the time. | Surged +8.7% $93.48 -> $101.57 |
Dec 8, 2025 | Hypothetical Pipeline Update Details: This example illustrates market sensitivity. Even with potentially positive mid-stage pipeline news, the stock can sell off if it's not seen as impactful enough to solve the core thesis risk. | Plummeted 5.7% $102.52 -> $96.70 |
Feb 10, 2026 | Q4 & FY 2025 Earnings and FY 2026 Guidance Details: Despite a revenue beat, stock plummeted on a significant Opzelura guidance miss for FY26 (~15% growth vs. 33% in FY25), signaling sharp deceleration in the key growth driver. | Plummeted 8.2% $109.03 -> $100.05 |
Mar 12, 2026 | FDA Rejects Zynyz Application Details: The FDA issued a complete response letter for Zynyz in lung cancer due to manufacturing inspection findings at a third-party facility, highlighting supply chain risk. | Fell notably by 2.8% $94.66 -> $92.03 |
Apr 21, 2026 | Tafasitamab Positive Phase 3 Top-Line Results Details: Incyte announced the frontMIND study in first-line DLBCL met its primary endpoint. The market reaction was muted ahead of the full data presentation at ASCO. | Muted (-0.7%) $96.92 -> $96.22 |
Position Sizing
NORMAL
Diversification Alternatives
Incyte is transitioning from a company heavily reliant on its blockbuster hematology drug, Jakafi, to a diversified biopharmaceutical firm with a significant new growth pillar in dermatology (Opzelura) and a broad late-stage pipeline aimed at offsetting Jakafi's 2028 patent expiration.
Filter all news through the lens of diversifying revenue beyond Jakafi before its 2028 patent cliff.
Opzelura revenue growth exceeding 30% YoY; Positive Phase 3 data readouts for late-stage pipeline assets like povorcitinib; a successful launch of Jakafi XR; any new drug approvals that build the post-2028 revenue base.
Slowing growth or market share loss for Opzelura or Jakafi; clinical trial failures or delays for key pipeline candidates (e.g., povorcitinib); stronger-than-expected competition from other JAK inhibitors; any negative regulatory updates or patent challenges.
Quarterly fluctuations in royalty revenue; early-stage (Phase 1) pipeline announcements; minor insider stock sales; general market commentary on the biotech sector without specific relevance to Incyte's product cycle.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is focused on the successful commercial ramp-up of Opzelura and the clinical progression of its late-stage pipeline, particularly povorcitinib, as the primary drivers to create a durable revenue stream that can replace the estimated ~$3.2B in annual Jakafi sales expected to be lost to generic competition after 2028.
Jakafi (Hematology Drug)
$3.1B TTM (57% of Total) · 91% MarginWhat It Is
Jakafi (ruxolitinib), a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor for myelofibrosis (a rare blood cancer) and other hematological conditions.
Who Pays & How
Major US drug distributors (identified as Customers A, B, and C in filings, likely AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health, and McKesson) purchase the drug for pharmacy fulfillment. Payers (insurers) cover the cost because it is the first FDA-approved and standard-of-care treatment for intermediate/high-risk myelofibrosis, significantly improving patient symptoms.
Competition
Opzelura (Dermatology Cream)
$0.7B TTM (13% of Total) · 91% MarginWhat It Is
Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream, the first and only FDA-approved topical JAK inhibitor for atopic dermatitis (eczema) and nonsegmental vitiligo.
Who Pays & How
Distributors purchase the product for pharmacies. Payers cover the treatment because it is a novel, first-in-class topical therapy for conditions with high unmet need, offering a non-steroidal option for patients.
Competition
Other Hematology/Oncology Products
$0.6B TTM (11% of Total) · 91% MarginWhat It Is
A portfolio of cancer drugs including Monjuvi (for lymphoma), Zynyz, Pemazyre, Iclusig, and the newly launched Niktimvo ($152M in FY25 sales).
Who Pays & How
Distributors, hospitals, and specialty pharmacies purchase these drugs for patients with various cancers. Payers cover them for approved, often niche, indications where there is a clinical need.
Competition
Royalties & Other Revenue
$0.8B TTM (19% of Total) · 100% MarginWhat It Is
Royalty income from out-licensed drugs (e.g., Olumiant partnered with Eli Lilly, Tabrecta with Novartis) and milestone/contract payments.
Who Pays & How
Pharmaceutical partners like Novartis and Eli Lilly pay Incyte a percentage of sales for drugs that Incyte discovered but which the partners commercialize.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.