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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
Key risks
INCY key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration on its lead drug Jakafi ahead of its 2028 patent expiration and [2] a challenging history of setbacks and failures in its clinical development pipeline.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
  
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
7 Key risks
INCY key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration on its lead drug Jakafi ahead of its 2028 patent expiration and [2] a challenging history of setbacks and failures in its clinical development pipeline.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

INCY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Incyte (INCY) stock moved by 15.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations and Raised Guidance: Incyte reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total revenues reaching $1.37 billion, a 20.1% increase year-over-year, and comfortably surpassing analyst estimates of $1.26 billion. The company's non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26 significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.66 by 36.14%. Following this strong performance, Incyte also raised its full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance to a range of $4.23 billion to $4.32 billion, signaling confidence in continued growth.

2. FDA Approval of Opzelura for Pediatric Atopic Dermatitis: On September 18, 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Opzelura® (ruxolitinib) cream 1.5% for the short-term and non-continuous chronic treatment of mild to moderate atopic dermatitis in non-immunocompromised children two years of age and older. This approval expands the eligible patient population for a key product, contributing to anticipated revenue growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
INCY Return-0%-16%9%-22%10%40%11%
Peers Return4%26%13%-7%1%14%60%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
INCY Win Rate42%50%67%58%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate45%55%52%40%53%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
INCY Max Drawdown-28%-27%-10%-35%-18%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-7%-13%-22%-16%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMY, GILD, AMGN, REGN, PFE. See INCY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventINCYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven735 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven16 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven505.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven365 days1,480 days

Compare to ILMN, MRNA, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS


In The Past

Incyte's stock fell -48.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -48.1% loss requires a 92.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Incyte (INCY)

Better Bets than Incyte (INCY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to INCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Incyte

Peers to compare with:

Financials

INCYBMYGILDAMGNREGNPFEMedian
NameIncyte Bristol-.Gilead S.Amgen Regenero.Pfizer  
Mkt Price97.6353.55121.36326.01749.7925.04109.50
Mkt Cap19.1109.0150.9175.477.7142.4125.7
Rev LTM4,81348,03429,08635,97114,24862,78632,528
Op Inc LTM1,25611,42011,1518,6713,80715,4179,911
FCF LTM1,17215,3029,16211,5393,88110,3769,769
FCF 3Y Avg58513,5988,8159,0673,8538,9278,871
CFO LTM1,25116,6219,66713,1265,07113,07711,372
CFO 3Y Avg66214,8469,36410,3224,84812,1279,843

Growth & Margins

INCYBMYGILDAMGNREGNPFEMedian
NameIncyte Bristol-.Gilead S.Amgen Regenero.Pfizer  
Rev Chg LTM18.1%1.3%2.8%10.6%2.9%3.9%3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.1%1.0%2.3%11.2%1.4%-13.2%1.9%
Rev Chg Q20.0%2.8%3.0%12.4%0.9%-5.9%2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.0%0.7%0.8%3.0%0.2%-1.6%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM26.1%23.8%38.3%24.1%26.7%24.6%25.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.8%19.0%39.2%25.4%30.0%19.4%22.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.4%2.9%0.9%0.6%-0.9%-1.4%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM26.0%34.6%33.2%36.5%35.6%20.8%33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%31.7%33.1%32.7%35.4%18.9%32.2%
FCF/Rev LTM24.4%31.9%31.5%32.1%27.2%16.5%29.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.5%29.0%31.2%28.8%28.2%13.9%28.5%

Valuation

INCYBMYGILDAMGNREGNPFEMedian
NameIncyte Bristol-.Gilead S.Amgen Regenero.Pfizer  
Mkt Cap19.1109.0150.9175.477.7142.4125.7
P/S3.41.94.74.24.12.33.8
P/EBIT10.49.212.713.711.212.211.7
P/E14.015.217.021.712.714.715.0
P/CFO13.35.514.311.611.511.111.5
Total Yield7.2%12.0%8.8%7.9%8.3%13.5%8.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%5.4%2.9%3.3%0.5%6.7%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%13.2%8.0%5.9%4.9%5.5%5.7%
D/E0.00.60.20.40.00.40.3
Net D/E-0.20.40.10.3-0.10.30.2

Returns

INCYBMYGILDAMGNREGNPFEMedian
NameIncyte Bristol-.Gilead S.Amgen Regenero.Pfizer  
1M Rtn-6.3%14.4%-1.6%-4.6%6.5%-0.2%-0.9%
3M Rtn15.1%17.6%8.8%19.5%28.2%5.9%16.4%
6M Rtn43.0%17.4%13.9%14.3%46.4%8.5%15.9%
12M Rtn40.7%-2.5%34.4%26.6%1.9%1.6%14.2%
3Y Rtn19.0%-16.8%55.4%34.2%4.3%-42.1%11.6%
1M Excs Rtn-7.0%13.7%-2.3%-5.3%5.7%-0.9%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn12.2%17.7%6.2%17.7%24.0%4.2%14.9%
6M Excs Rtn30.6%5.0%1.5%1.9%34.0%-3.8%3.5%
12M Excs Rtn31.3%-10.3%24.7%13.3%-8.0%-6.1%3.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-49.9%-90.9%-14.8%-38.8%-66.9%-111.3%-58.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Global discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics3,696    
Milestone and contract revenues 1659520578
Product revenues, net 2,7472,3222,0691,775
Product royalty revenues 483569393306
Total3,6963,3952,9862,6672,159


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,149,380
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.6%
Average Daily Volume1,873,652
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.88
Basic Shares Quantity195,670,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-1.5%9.1%13.4%
7/29/202510.3%11.2%19.7%
4/29/20251.5%4.4%9.1%
2/10/2025-7.9%-5.0%-8.2%
10/29/202412.0%15.3%13.9%
7/30/2024-1.2%-9.6%-4.3%
4/30/2024-1.0%2.9%8.3%
2/13/20242.6%1.7%1.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8109
# Negative161415
Median Positive3.2%4.5%8.3%
Median Negative-4.2%-5.0%-6.3%
Max Positive12.0%15.3%19.7%
Max Negative-8.5%-12.7%-18.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021