Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $11.425 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $11.425Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.3% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.4% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9% Key risksAESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.4% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9% |
| Key risksAESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Miss on Profitability.
Atlas Energy Solutions reported a net loss of ($47.3) million and an earnings per share (EPS) miss of 56.52% against consensus estimates for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. While total revenue of $265.5 million beat estimates and Adjusted EBITDA of $28.4 million was within guidance, the reported net loss and significant EPS miss likely triggered negative investor sentiment following the earnings release on May 4, 2026.
2. Increased Capital Expenditure Guidance.
The company updated its 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to approximately $350 million to $375 million, a notable increase attributed to bringing a 240-megawatt power purchase agreement onto the balance sheet. While this investment targets long-term growth in its power segment, the substantial increase in planned spending may have raised short-term investor concerns regarding capital deployment and its immediate impact on free cash flow or profitability.
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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Miss on Profitability.
Atlas Energy Solutions reported a net loss of ($47.3) million and an earnings per share (EPS) miss of 56.52% against consensus estimates for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. While total revenue of $265.5 million beat estimates and Adjusted EBITDA of $28.4 million was within guidance, the reported net loss and significant EPS miss likely triggered negative investor sentiment following the earnings release on May 4, 2026.
2. Increased Capital Expenditure Guidance.
The company updated its 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to approximately $350 million to $375 million, a notable increase attributed to bringing a 240-megawatt power purchase agreement onto the balance sheet. While this investment targets long-term growth in its power segment, the substantial increase in planned spending may have raised short-term investor concerns regarding capital deployment and its immediate impact on free cash flow or profitability.
3. Cautious Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Reductions.
Analyst sentiment for Atlas Energy Solutions remained mixed, with a consensus "Hold" rating from Wall Street analysts by July 2026. During the period, some analysts adjusted their outlook, with Citigroup lowering its price target from $22.00 to $21.00 on July 15, 2026, and Barclays reducing its target from $16.00 to $14.00 while maintaining an "Underweight" rating. These adjustments reflect a more cautious valuation perspective and contributed to negative pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.8% change in AESI stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.12 | 11.44 | -12.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,095 | 1,063 | -2.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.3 | -9.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 125 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AESI | -12.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | -4.7% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.4% change in AESI stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.42 | 11.44 | 21.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,117 | 1,063 | -4.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 1.3 | 28.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 125 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AESI | 21.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 9.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 31.4% | 33.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.6% change in AESI stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.09 | 11.44 | -12.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,161 | 1,063 | -8.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 125 | -5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AESI | -12.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 40.9% | 42.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.0% change in AESI stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.45 | 11.44 | -26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 1,063 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 1.3 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 125 | -54.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AESI | -26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 57.2% | 53.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AESI Return | - | - | 6% | 35% | -55% | 27% | -19% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 50% | -1% | -2% | 17% | 18% | 131% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AESI Win Rate | - | - | 70% | 67% | 33% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 60% | 40% | 45% | 53% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AESI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -26% | -66% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -49% | -35% | -32% | -42% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SND, LBRT, PUMP, HAL, SLB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AESI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Atlas Energy Solutions's stock fell -11.4% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 12.9% gain to breakeven.
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In The Past
Atlas Energy Solutions's stock fell -11.4% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 12.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) is a leading provider of proppant (frac sand) and advanced logistics services for the oil and natural gas industry, operating exclusively within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, North America's most active energy region. The company specializes in extracting high-quality, in-basin sand from its extensive and strategically located acreage on the Winkler Sand Trend, utilizing efficient electric dredging technology. With current market demand exceeding in-basin production capacity, Atlas is significantly expanding its proppant manufacturing facilities to meet the growing needs of exploration and production (E&P) operators in the region.
A core differentiator for Atlas is its innovative approach to logistics, designed to deliver substantial efficiency, safety, and sustainability benefits. This includes the pioneering "Dune Express," the world's first long-haul proppant conveyor system, a 42-mile electric infrastructure projected to transport 13 million tons of proppant annually directly into the Northern Delaware Basin. This system, coupled with their expanding fleet of high-payload, fit-for-purpose trucks and a long-term vision for autonomous wellsite delivery, aims to drastically reduce truck traffic on public roads, lower emissions, improve delivery reliability, and enhance overall operational productivity for their customers.
Led by an entrepreneurial management team with deep roots and a proven track record in the E&P sector, Atlas Energy Solutions leverages its unique asset base, technological innovation, and understanding of customer needs to maintain a competitive advantage. The company is committed to maximizing stockholder value through strong cash flow generation and consistent capital returns, positioning itself as a reliable and forward-thinking supplier addressing critical supply chain bottlenecks in the dynamic Permian Basin.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI):
- Atlas Energy Solutions is like Kinder Morgan, but for fracking sand, building the first long-haul conveyor system (a 'sand pipeline') to streamline delivery in the Permian Basin, alongside being a leading sand producer.
- Atlas Energy Solutions is like Amazon Logistics for fracking sand, not only a major supplier of the critical material but also deploying cutting-edge delivery solutions, including a 42-mile overland conveyor and advanced trucks, in the Permian Basin.
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- Proppant Production: Atlas Energy Solutions mines, processes, and supplies high-quality in-basin proppant (frac sand) to the oil and natural gas industry in the Permian Basin.
- Logistics Solutions (Services):
- Dune Express Conveyor System: A long-haul overland conveyor system designed to transport proppant efficiently from their facilities into the heart of the Northern Delaware Basin, significantly reducing truck traffic.
- Optimized Trucking and Wellsite Delivery: Provides efficient last-mile proppant delivery using a proprietary fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks and trailers with expanded payload capacity, with future plans for autonomous wellsite delivery.
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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) sells primarily to other companies within the oil and natural gas industry.
Its major customers are described as:
- Major oil companies: The company explicitly states, "We have ... signed sand supply and logistics contracts with major oil companies for the delivery of proppant by means of the Dune Express."
- E&P (Exploration and Production) operators: The company's leadership team has a background as "E&P operators," which "was instrumental to our understanding of the opportunity created by in-basin sand production and supply in the Permian Basin." This indicates that E&P operators are the end-users of their proppant and logistics services.
The provided text does not name specific public customer companies by name or symbol, but rather categorizes them within the oil and natural gas sector in the Permian Basin.
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John Turner, Chief Executive Officer
John Turner has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Atlas Energy Solutions since March 2024. He previously held the roles of Chief Financial Officer and President starting in November 2022, and served as Chief Financial Officer since the company's founding in 2017. With over 20 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry, Mr. Turner has worked in various capacities for both public and private entities, focusing on corporate finance, business development, and strategic planning. Notably, he served as Chief Financial Officer of Brigham Exploration Company, LLC, another entity founded by Ben "Bud" Brigham.
Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer
Blake McCarthy was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Atlas Energy Solutions, effective May 13, 2024. He brings over 15 years of experience in finance and operations within the oil and gas sector. Prior to joining Atlas Energy Solutions, Mr. McCarthy held several operational and financial roles at NOV, Inc., including President of NOV Grant Prideco and Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations, where he oversaw the company's mergers and acquisitions efforts and strategic initiatives. His career also includes experience as a principal investor at Citadel Global Equities, covering the global oil and gas industry with a focus on oilfield services, and as an investment banker at Simmons & Company International. He is an alumnus of Princeton University.
Ben M. "Bud" Brigham, Executive Chairman
Ben M. "Bud" Brigham is the founder of Atlas Energy Solutions in 2017 and has served as the Executive Chairman of its board of directors since inception, also previously holding the role of Chief Executive Officer. He has a distinguished history of founding and leading several successful upstream energy enterprises. This includes Brigham Exploration Company, which he founded in 1990, took public with an IPO in 1997, and led as President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman until its acquisition by Statoil for $4.7 billion in 2011. In 2017, Brigham Resources Operating, LLC, another company he led, was acquired by Diamondback Energy, Inc. for $2.6 billion. He also saw Brigham Minerals, Inc. combine with Sitio Royalties Corp. in an all-stock merger with a combined enterprise value of $4.8 billion in 2022. He founded Anthem Ventures, LLC, a family office, in 2012.
Dathan Christopher Voelter, General Counsel & Secretary
Dathan C. Voelter serves as the General Counsel and Secretary of Atlas Energy Solutions, a role he was promoted to in December 2021 after serving as Deputy General Counsel and Secretary since April 2019. Before joining Atlas Energy Solutions, Mr. Voelter was Managing Counsel and Assistant Secretary of Andeavor (NYSE: ANDV) and its midstream subsidiary Andeavor Logistics LP (NYSE: ANDX), which was later acquired by Marathon Petroleum Corp. He also held the position of Associate General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer at Itron, Inc.
Kirk Ginn, Sr. Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer
Kirk Ginn holds the title of Sr. Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer at Atlas Energy Solutions.
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Key Risks to Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
- Reliance on the Oil and Natural Gas Industry: Atlas Energy Solutions' entire business model, including demand for its proppant and logistics services, is directly tied to the health and activity levels of the oil and natural gas industry, specifically within the Permian Basin. A significant downturn in oil and natural gas prices, reduced drilling and completion activity, or a broader shift away from fossil fuels could severely diminish demand for the company's products and services, negatively impacting its financial performance and growth prospects.
- Execution Risk of Major Capital Projects: The company is undertaking significant capital projects, most notably the "Dune Express" overland conveyor system, which is described as the "first long-haul proppant conveyor system in the world" with an anticipated cost of approximately $400 million and a planned commercial in-service by the end of 2024. Additionally, Atlas is adding a 5.0 million tons annual production capacity facility in Kermit, Texas, expected to be completed by the end of 2023. Failure to construct and commercialize these ambitious projects on time, within budget, or to achieve the anticipated efficiency, safety, and sustainability benefits, could lead to substantial cost overruns, reputational damage, and a failure to realize projected revenue and cash flow increases.
- Intense Competition: While Atlas Energy Solutions highlights its "uniquely-positioned asset base" and "differentiated approach" as competitive advantages, the proppant and logistics market within the Permian Basin is competitive. The company acknowledges that "many companies have attempted to capture the efficiency gains" in the in-basin sand market. New entrants, existing competitors with superior technology, more efficient operations, or aggressive pricing strategies could erode Atlas Energy Solutions' market share, pricing power, and profitability over time, despite its current market position.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
- Increased Proppant Production Capacity: The completion of a new facility in Kermit, Texas, by the end of 2023, which adds 5.0 million tons of annual production capacity, will enable Atlas Energy Solutions to meet the growing demand for proppant.
- Commercialization of the Dune Express: The launch of the Dune Express, a 42-mile overland conveyor system expected to be commercially in-service by the end of 2024 and capable of transporting 13 million tons of proppant annually, will introduce a significant new logistics revenue stream, bolstered by existing sand supply and logistics contracts with major oil companies.
- Expansion of In-House Wellsite Delivery Assets: The ongoing deployment of a proprietary fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks and trailers starting in 2023, coupled with the future development of autonomous wellsite delivery technology, is expected to drive substantial productivity gains and expand the company's logistics service revenue.
- Growth in Contracted Volumes and Extended Terms: Atlas Energy Solutions is experiencing increasing demand, with existing facilities currently sold out and a growing portfolio of contracted volumes and extended terms for both proppant and logistics services.
- Robust Permian Basin Proppant Demand: The favorable market conditions within the Permian Basin, characterized by proppant demand exceeding in-basin production capacity and projected significant increases in operator spending and completion activity through 2024, will continue to drive demand for the company's products and services.
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Capital Expenditures
- The company anticipates an approximate cost of $400 million for the completion of the Dune Express electric conveyor system, with groundbreaking planned for the first half of 2023 and commercial in-service by the end of 2024.
- Construction of a new facility at Kermit, Texas, capable of 5.0 million tons of annual production capacity, is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2023.
- Investments include the procurement of a fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks and trailers, including those equipped with technology to support autonomous wellsite delivery, with deployment beginning in January 2023 and field testing of autonomous technology expected during 2023.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,688 |
| Op Inc LTM | 26 |
| FCF LTM | 23 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 62 |
| CFO LTM | 284 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 490 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -44.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -69.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $11.44 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/09/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -42.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.21 | $12.84 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -29.4% | -10.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 58.9% | 61.4% |
| Downside Capture | 210.53 | 96.57 |
| Upside Capture | -1.26 | 56.41 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.0% | 15.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.73 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | -4.33 | -2.55 | -0.84 | -1.03 | -0.40 | 0.90 |
| Down Beta | 1.35 | 1.01 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.65 | 1.88 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 97% | 89% | 93% | 77% | 45% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 35 | 75 | 129 | 378 |
| Down Capture | 153% | 157% | 34% | -40% | 77% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 119 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AESI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AESI | -16.9% | 61.1% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 36.8% | 21.0% | 1.39 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 15.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 28.1% | 0.66 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.6% | 19.5% | 1.21 | 34.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.1% | 0.69 | -0.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.0% | 43.0% | -1.31 | 16.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AESI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AESI | -4.9% | 49.2% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.3% | 25.8% | 0.83 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 33.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 39.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.9% | 0.07 | 20.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.5% | 0.47 | 12.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AESI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AESI | -2.5% | 49.2% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.7% | 29.5% | 0.37 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 33.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 39.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 20.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | 8.3% | 6.1% | 0.9% |
| 2/23/2026 | -5.7% | -9.5% | 22.5% |
| 11/3/2025 | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | 1.4% | -5.4% | -10.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.6% | -6.0% | -6.0% |
| 2/24/2025 | -5.7% | -12.5% | -10.0% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.7% | -0.3% | 19.0% |
| 8/5/2024 | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 5.9% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -6.0% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 9.5% | 22.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | 8.3% | 6.1% | 0.9% |
| 2/23/2026 | -5.7% | -9.5% | 22.5% |
| 11/3/2025 | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | 1.4% | -5.4% | -10.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.6% | -6.0% | -6.0% |
| 2/24/2025 | -5.7% | -12.5% | -10.0% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.7% | -0.3% | 19.0% |
| 8/5/2024 | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 8.1% | 5.6% | 21.1% |
| 10/30/2023 | -5.6% | -1.7% | -11.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 5.9% | 15.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -6.0% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 9.5% | 22.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2022 | 01/31/2023 | S-1 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2022 | 01/31/2023 | S-1 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 EBITDA | 36.70 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Power generation capacity | 500.00 Mil | 25.0% | Raised | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scholla, Chris | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 11.79 | 8,912 | 105,037 | 6,694,118 | Form | |
| 2 | Shepard, Gregory M | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.98 | 130,000 | 1,557,400 | 88,906,096 | Form | |
| 3 | Shepard, Gregory M | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.75 | 100,000 | 1,175,000 | 88,726,718 | Form | |
| 4 | Scholla, Chris | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 8.82 | 52,150 | 459,963 | 4,859,000 | Form | |
| 5 | Rogers, Douglas G | Direct | Buy | 5162025 | 13.27 | 7,000 | 92,862 | 132,660 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scholla, Chris | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 11.79 | 8,912 | 105,037 | 6,694,118 | Form | |
| 2 | Shepard, Gregory M | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.98 | 130,000 | 1,557,400 | 88,906,096 | Form | |
| 3 | Shepard, Gregory M | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.75 | 100,000 | 1,175,000 | 88,726,718 | Form | |
| 4 | Scholla, Chris | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 8.82 | 52,150 | 459,963 | 4,859,000 | Form | |
| 5 | Rogers, Douglas G | Direct | Buy | 5162025 | 13.27 | 7,000 | 92,862 | 132,660 | Form | |
| 6 | Brigham, Ben M | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 5152025 | 13.38 | 9,635 | 128,886 | 7,656,897 | Form |
| 7 | Brigham, Ben M | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 5132025 | 13.36 | 9,121 | 121,873 | 7,519,513 | Form |
| 8 | Brigham, Ben M | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 5132025 | 13.32 | 20,400 | 271,685 | 7,373,335 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 28, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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