Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.74 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.74Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | Key risksAESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% |
| Key risksAESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AESI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) stock moved by approximately -17.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analysts downgraded Atlas Energy Solutions' stock rating and lowered their price targets. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Strong Sell" with a reduced price target of $8.00 on November 21, 2025. Similarly, Barclays downgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Sell" and lowered its price target to $7.00 on November 14, 2025. RBC Capital also downgraded the stock to "Sector Perform" in October 2025.
2. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: On November 3, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions reported a net loss of $23.7 million for Q3 2025, a significant decline compared to previous quarters, and total revenue decreased by 10.1% from Q2 2025 to $259.6 million. The company also missed revenue estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AESI Return | � | � | � | � | 35% | -54% | � |
| Peers Return | -28% | 14% | 50% | -1% | -1% | 14% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AESI Win Rate | � | � | � | 67% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 60% | 40% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AESI Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -8% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -79% | -7% | -6% | -26% | -19% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SND, LBRT, PUMP, HAL, SLB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
In The Past
null
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AESI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Atlas Energy Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,605 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | 25 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 153 |
| CFO LTM | 390 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 566 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/CFO | 3.5 |
| Total Yield | 10.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 41.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | 1.4% | -5.4% | -10.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.6% | -6.0% | -6.0% |
| 1/27/2025 | 3.2% | -4.0% | -17.9% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.7% | -0.3% | 19.0% |
| 8/5/2024 | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | 8.1% | 5.6% | 21.1% |
| 10/30/2023 | -5.6% | -1.7% | -11.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 7.6% | 19.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.6% | -4.7% | -11.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 9.5% | 21.1% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -15.9% | -20.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1312023 | S-1 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |