Tearsheet

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)


Market Price (2/4/2026): $11.85 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)


Market Price (2/4/2026): $11.85
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
  Key risks
AESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
9 Key risks
AESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) stock has lost about 5% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) faced downward pressure due to market expectations of weak fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. Analysts have forecasted a significant negative earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025, with expectations around -$0.22 to -$0.23 per share, representing a substantial year-over-year decrease. The company is scheduled to release its Q4 and year-end 2025 earnings after market close on February 23, 2026. The anticipation of poor financial results likely weighed on the stock price in the preceding period.

2. Declining crude oil prices and forecasts for continued oversupply contributed to a bearish sentiment. Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell by 7.94% during the final three months of 2025, with WTI crude oil prices declining 19.34% in 2025 and continuing a bearish trend into early 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that oil prices will decline in 2026, forecasting Brent crude to average $56 per barrel and WTI to average $52 per barrel, significantly lower than 2025 averages. This outlook of sustained lower oil prices suggests reduced drilling activity, which directly impacts the demand for frac sand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also estimated a substantial crude oil surplus persisting through 2026, averaging over 3.7 million barrels per day, further pressuring WTI prices.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.3% change in AESI stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)103120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)12.3811.85-4.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,1621,117-3.9%
P/S Multiple1.31.3-0.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)124124-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-4.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AESI-4.2% 
Market (SPY)0.6%12.9%
Sector (XLE)19.9%37.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -6.9% change in AESI stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)12.7311.85-6.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,1611,117-3.8%
P/S Multiple1.31.31.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)118124-4.4%
Cumulative Contribution-6.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AESI-6.8% 
Market (SPY)8.9%22.6%
Sector (XLE)22.2%45.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -45.7% change in AESI stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)21.8111.85-45.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9261,11720.7%
P/S Multiple2.61.3-49.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)110124-11.2%
Cumulative Contribution-45.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AESI-45.6% 
Market (SPY)15.0%48.6%
Sector (XLE)23.5%65.5%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AESI  
Market (SPY)75.1%38.7%
Sector (XLE)29.0%59.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AESI Return--6%35%-55%28%-19%
Peers Return14%50%-1%-1%19%28%157%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%84%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AESI Win Rate--70%67%33%100% 
Peers Win Rate52%60%40%45%53%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AESI Max Drawdown---6%-8%-62%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-6%-26%-19%-33%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SND, LBRT, PUMP, HAL, SLB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/4/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)

We are a leading provider of proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most active oil and natural gas basin in North America. Our core mission is to maximize value for our stockholders by generating strong cash flow and allocating our capital resources efficiently, including providing a regular and durable return of capital to our investors through industry cycles. In our pursuit of this mission, we deploy innovative techniques and technologies to develop our high-quality resource base and efficiently deliver our products to customers through leading-edge logistics solutions. We believe that our uniquely-positioned asset base and our differentiated approach are distinct competitive advantages that make us a more reliable supplier than our competitors. We believe we have developed a strong brand recognition for reliability and strong customer service that has enabled us to increase the volume of proppant sold every year since the founding of the Company in 2017. Our unique assets and market positioning, along with our innovation and demonstrated reliability, enables us to expand our business beyond proppant sales. We are launching a transformational logistics offering that we believe will bring a step change in efficiency, safety and sustainability benefits to the Permian Basin. This will include the “Dune Express,” an overland conveyor infrastructure solution, which, coupled with our fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks and trailers, we anticipate will remove a significant number of trucks from public roadways within the Permian Basin. The Dune Express will be the first long-haul overland conveyor system to deliver proppant. We have secured the contiguous right-of-way for our initial system, which is expected to follow a 42-mile-long route from our facilities into the heart of the prolific Northern Delaware Basin. The Dune Express will significantly shorten the distance that proppant needs to travel by truck, which is expected to provide meaningful productivity gains while decreasing emissions. We expect the Dune Express to make public roadways safer by removing trucks from public roadways, thus reducing traffic, accidents and fatalities on public roadways in the region. Our supplying partners are currently manufacturing fit-for-purpose equipment for our trucking fleet to be used in our existing logistics business. We have designed our trucking operations and delivery processes to significantly expand the daily payload capacity per truck compared to traditional assets. We believe these fit-for-purpose assets with expanded payload capacity are already driving productivity gains since their deployment in January 2023, and will continue to do so as we build our fleet. Our long-term goal is to bring autonomous wellsite delivery to the Permian Basin, which we expect to drive further productivity gains as the technology is developed over the next several years. Each of these solutions independently represents a significant leap forward in the logistics space. Combined, we believe that our logistics offering will bring substantial benefits to our customers, investors and the local community in the Permian Basin. The relocation of commercial traffic from public roads to private roads creates a dynamic closed-loop system that is well suited for the rapid deployment and advancement of our trucking fleet, while also increasing the mobility and safety of the public roadways for the residents of the region. According to Lium Research, Permian Basin proppant demand currently exceeds in-basin production capacity and third-party research indicates that this supply shortage has the potential to grow significantly. In 2022, while Permian operators accelerated completions, they also maintained a healthy drilled uncompleted (“DUC”) well inventory at approximately 94% of the 2018–2022 average. Furthermore, Lium Research estimated that Permian operators would spend approximately $42.8 billion in 2022 with spending levels estimated to be approximately 50% higher in 2024, signaling for a significant and continued increase in completions activity. In response to this supply shortage, we are in the process of adding a facility capable of 5.0 million tons of annual production capacity at our location in Kermit, Texas, and we anticipate that construction will be completed by the end of 2023. Due to the robust levels of industry demand for our product, our existing facilities are currently sold out, our contracted volumes continue to grow, and we are both extending term and adding logistics contracts to our portfolio. The modular design of our existing facilities and the size of our resource base provide us with the ability to further expand our production footprint to meet future market demand, should we determine that the potential investment enhances our long-term profitability and free cash flow profile. We were founded in 2017 by Ben (“Bud”) Brigham, our Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and are led by an entrepreneurial team with a history of constructive disruption bringing significant and complementary experience to this enterprise, including the perspective of longtime exploration and production (“E&P”) operators, which provides for an elevated understanding of the end users of our products and services. We believe this experience and our associated knowledge base differentiates us from our competitors and facilitates our ability to identify and execute as an early mover on critical value drivers, enabling us to maximize the full potential of our business and outcomes for our stockholders and stakeholders alike. Our executive management team has a proven track record and over 90 years of combined industry experience with a history of generating positive returns and value creation, exemplified by Bud Brigham’s significant experience leading several companies through a successful initial public offering (“IPO”), or an acquisition event: • In 2011, Brigham Exploration Company (“Brigham Exploration”), a pioneer in the use of 3-D seismic and horizontal drilling and completions techniques within the oil-rich Bakken Shale was acquired by Statoil ASA (“Statoil”) for $4.7 billion. Brigham Exploration completed an IPO in 1997. • In 2017, Brigham Resources Operating, LLC (“Brigham Resources”), an innovator in Delaware Basin drilling and completions techniques (as an early adopter of e-frac technology and tested proppant loadings in excess of 5,000 pounds per foot) was acquired by Diamondback Energy, Inc. (“Diamondback”) for $2.6 billion. • In 2022, Brigham Minerals, Inc. (“Brigham Minerals”), a technically sophisticated oil and gas minerals company, combined with Sitio Royalties Corp. (“Sitio Royalties”) in an all-stock merger with a combined enterprise value of $4.8 billion (representing a $2.2 billion value to Brigham Minerals, or a 108% total return since its IPO, with total return calculated as cumulative dividends plus stock price appreciation). Our experience as E&P operators was instrumental to our understanding of the opportunity created by in-basin sand production and supply in the Permian Basin, which we view as North America’s premier shale resource and which we believe will remain relatively more active through economic cycles. Though the industry has always been focused on increasing efficiencies in resource development, mission critical proppant production and related logistics were historically chaotic and inefficient, particularly given the long and inefficient legacy midwestern supply chain. We identified the two giant open dunes of the Winkler Sand Trend as the premier sand resource in the region due to their differentiated geologic characteristics, advantaged water access and their large scale/long resource life. As the reserves of these large open dunes have not been subjected to the same degree of soil development, organics and impurities as buried sand deposits, they tend to produce higher and more consistent mining yields relative to buried sand deposits, making the large open dunes economically superior deposits. The giant open dunes’ advantaged access to water stems from the nature of the perched aquifers that have been found to form within these deposits. It is the nature of this water table that has enabled Atlas to become the first and, to our knowledge, the only proppant producer in the Permian Basin to mine by electric dredge, and we expect to transition more of our mining to electric dredging over the next twelve to twenty-four months. We control over 14,500 acres on the giant open dunes, which represents more than 70% of the total giant open dune acreage available for mining. Based on our current total annual production capacity of approximately 10.0 million tons, as of December 31, 2022, our properties have an aggregate expected reserve life of approximately 36 years based on the currently defined mineral reserves, with a potential extension of our reserve life to approximately 200 years based on our total mineral resources. We believe we are the leader in meeting the evolving proppant needs of an increasingly efficiency-focused oil and natural gas industry. From our inception, our disruptive approach has met the needs of the just-in-time supply model we believed would become the best fit for the industry’s increasingly efficiency-driven focus, and we engineered our facilities to fit this model. Our plants include substantial investments in redundant equipment that aim to maximize our uptime and utilization rates. We believe these are key differentiating factors from some other proppant producers serving the Permian Basin. The shift to in-basin sand proved to be a disruptive event for the proppant industry, but not sufficient to provide all participants a meaningful advantage. While many companies have attempted to capture the efficiency gains promised by this relocation of the proppant-production hub from the midwestern United States to an in-basin model, few have been able to optimize their efficiency with geologically superior acreage positions and properly designed facilities. It is this combination of geology, water availability and plant design that significantly differentiates our proppant production facilities and we believe makes us more reliable than our competition. --- Logistics Solutions We plan to bring meaningful efficiency, safety and sustainability benefits to the Permian Basin through our expanding logistics solutions. We believe that the Permian Basin remains in a multi-year transformation period that began when the innovations that enabled the development of shale resources led to better definition of geologic targets, increased systemization of processes and ultimately resulted in more predictable production outcomes. While enhanced logistics, infrastructure and technology have driven economic gains, they have also increased the technical complexity of execution in the oil and natural gas industry and precipitated a premium on scale, innovation and efficiency. Just as investments in pipeline infrastructure have reduced emissions and improved efficiency and safety by converting a truck-oriented delivery process to an infrastructure-oriented delivery process, our investments into infrastructure and technological improvements to the delivery of proppant aim to harvest similar productivity gains and generate positive community and environmental impacts. These technology and infrastructure investments are integral to and representative of our industry’s long-standing initiatives to reduce the footprint of our operations for the benefit of the local communities we operate within. The Dune Express Electric Conveyor System: The Dune Express, which will originate at our Kermit facility and stretch into the middle of the Northern Delaware Basin, will be the first long-haul proppant conveyor system in the world. While this is the first application of conveyor infrastructure to long-haul proppant, conveyors are widely used in the proppant industry for short movements of product and are a preferred method of transporting bulk materials in many other industries due to the low transportation cost and increased safety of the accompanying decrease in truck traffic. Upon completion, we expect the Dune Express to be 42 miles in length, capable of transporting 13 million tons of proppant annually and is designed to have more than 84,000 tons of dry storage within the system. We view the Dune Express as the premier method of moving proppant across the basin and the industry’s best analog to the pipeline infrastructure that moves oil, natural gas, and water around the major producing basins in the U.S. We have secured the contiguous right-of-way, substantially completed the requisite federal and state permitting necessary for construction of the Dune Express and have signed sand supply and logistics contracts with major oil companies for the delivery of proppant by means of the Dune Express. This conveyor system will be strategically located to deliver proppant to the core of the most prolific producing region of the Delaware Basin with flexible loadout capabilities, including both permanent and mobile loadouts. The Dune Express has the potential to take hundreds of thousands of truckloads off public roads annually, which should reduce traffic accidents and fatalities in the region and significantly reduce emissions generated, relative to the traditional delivery of sand by truck. We plan to use a portion of the net proceeds from this offering to fund the construction of the Dune Express. We plan to break ground in the first half of 2023, with commercial in-service planned to begin by the end of 2024. Our anticipated cost for completion of the Dune Express is approximately $400 million. --- Wellsite Delivery Assets: Our existing logistics business utilizes third-party transportation contractors which we plan to supplement and bring in-house with our own trucks and trailers. As our trucks and trailers continue to be deployed in 2023, we expect to deliver significant productivity gains, as measured by tons per truck that can be delivered daily, compared to the throughput performance of traditional trucking assets. These immediate productivity gains will be made possible through a combination of process improvements and targeted investments in fit-for-purpose equipment. We have partnered with a provider of autonomy and robotic technology with experience in the field of GPS-denied off-road autonomous driving applications to procure a fleet of vehicles equipped with technology designed to support autonomous wellsite delivery. We expect to begin testing in the field during 2023 with the goal of developing this technology over the next several years. --- Combined Impact of Our Logistics Solutions: Together, we believe these initiatives could have a significant impact in driving future revenue and increasing cash flow, reducing emissions, improving safety and relieving traffic and other burdens produced by the existing means of last-mile delivery. Furthermore, by reducing the intermittency of proppant delivery to the wellsite – and thereby increasing the reliability of delivery and potential throughput per truck per day – we believe our delivery solutions significantly mitigate a major bottleneck to the completions supply chain that may support increased pressure-pumping efficiencies. The graphic below shows the estimated amount of proppant, in tons, that can be delivered to Delaware Basin drilling spacing units in a day by an individual truck. Based on the current supply chain configuration, each truck is limited to very few deliveries per day for a variety of reasons, including the distance from local mines to wellsites that are distributed across a large geographic area, a limited public roadway network and the hours per day that a driver can work. Upon commercialization of the Dune Express and our trucking assets, this throughput potential expands dramatically due to the reduced delivery distance, higher payload capacity and increased asset utilization. --- In addition to the efficiency and reliability gains that we expect to realize through our logistics solutions, we anticipate that we will also be able to deliver significant safety benefits to the communities of the Permian Basin. The public road network in the Permian Basin today is ill-equipped for the massive amounts of oilfield traffic that is required for the industry to operate. By reducing the number of trucks required to fulfill proppant deliveries and removing these trucks from public roads, we anticipate that the rate of traffic accidents and associated injuries and fatalities will be reduced. Our logistics solutions have been designed to offer a further extension of our promise of reliability to our customers. We believe that customers will seek out our logistics solutions not only due to the compelling technology and infrastructure solutions we offer but also because they are tied into highly reliable production assets in our Kermit and Monahans facilities. Our principal executive offices are located at 5918 W. Courtyard Drive, Suite 500, Austin, Texas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI):

  • Nucor for frac sand: Like Nucor is a vertically integrated steel producer, AESI is a vertically integrated producer and supplier of frac sand, a critical bulk commodity for the energy industry.
  • Vulcan Materials for the Permian Basin's frac sand supply: Similar to how Vulcan Materials is a leading producer of aggregates for construction, AESI specializes in mining and delivering frac sand (a type of aggregate) specifically for the oil and gas industry in the Permian Basin.
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  • Proppant (Frac Sand): High-quality, fine-grain frac sand used in hydraulic fracturing to prop open fissures, allowing for the extraction of oil and natural gas.
  • Proppant Logistics and Delivery: Comprehensive logistics solutions, including their proprietary Dune Express system, for efficient and reliable transport of frac sand from mines to well sites.

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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) sells primarily to other companies.

Its major customers are exploration and production (E&P) companies that operate primarily in the Permian Basin. AESI provides them with high-quality frac sand and comprehensive last-mile logistics services essential for their oil and and gas drilling and completion activities.

While Atlas Energy Solutions' public filings, such as its annual 10-K report, indicate significant customer concentration (for example, the top five customers accounted for approximately 71% of revenue in 2023, and the largest customer accounted for approximately 25% of revenue), the company does not publicly disclose the specific names of its individual major customers. Therefore, a list of named customer companies with their symbols cannot be provided.

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Ben M. "Bud" Brigham, Executive Chairman
Mr. Brigham is the founder of Atlas Energy Solutions and has served as the Executive Chairman of its board of directors since its inception. He has founded several upstream energy enterprises, including Brigham Exploration Company in 1990, which completed its IPO in 1997. He served as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman until its sale to Statoil in December 2011. In 2012, Mr. Brigham founded Anthem Ventures, LLC, a family office, and in 2022, he co-founded Langford Energy Partners. Prior to founding Brigham Exploration Company, he worked as an exploration geophysicist with Rosewood Resources and as a seismic data processing geophysicist for Western Geophysical. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Geophysics from the University of Texas at Austin.

John Turner, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Turner has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Atlas Energy Solutions since March 2024. He previously served as Chief Financial Officer and President from November 2022 to March 2024, and as Chief Financial Officer since the company's founding in 2017. Mr. Turner has over 20 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry, working in various capacities for both public and private entities with a focus on corporate finance, business development, and strategic planning. His prior roles include Chief Financial Officer of Brigham Exploration Company, LLC, Chief Financial Officer of Mediterranean Resources, LLC, and Vice President of Brigham Exploration Company (NASDAQ: BEXP). He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration and a Master of Business Administration from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. McCarthy was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Atlas Energy Solutions, effective May 13, 2024. He is a seasoned executive with over 15 years of experience in various oil and gas finance, investing, and public company roles. Before joining Atlas, Mr. McCarthy spent seven years in operational and financial roles at NOV, Inc., including President of NOV Grant Prideco and Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Prior to NOV, he was a principal investor with Citadel Global Equities, focusing on the global oil and gas industry, particularly the oilfield services sector, and also worked as an investment banker with Simmons & Company International. He received an A.B. degree from Princeton University.

Tim Ondrak, SVP and President, Power Business Unit
Mr. Ondrak serves as the Senior Vice President and President of the Power Business Unit at Atlas Energy Solutions. No detailed background is readily available in the provided search results beyond his title.

Kirk Ginn, Sr. Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer
Mr. Ginn has served as the Vice President of Human Resources and EHS for Atlas Energy Solutions since September 2017. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Ginn was the Vice President of Human Logistics for Axion Logistics L.L.C. from December 2015 to September 2017, where he was responsible for developing and delivering human resources and people strategies.

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The key risks to Atlas Energy Solutions' (AESI) business operations and financial performance are primarily linked to its reliance on the highly cyclical oil and gas industry, ongoing operational inefficiencies, and broader financial stability concerns.

  1. Dependence on the Volatile Oil and Gas Industry: Atlas Energy Solutions operates in a market highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices, which directly impacts the demand for its proppant and logistics services. The company has experienced an industry-wide decline in activity levels, including rig cuts by Exploration & Production (E&P) companies and deferred projects, leading to pressure on revenue and margins. Weak demand in the West Texas market, a critical area for oil industry activity, has further contributed to challenges across supply chains. This market volatility has resulted in missed revenue expectations and downward revisions in company guidance.
  2. Operational Inefficiencies and Cost Pressures: Atlas Energy Solutions faces significant operational hurdles, notably at its Kermit facility, which has experienced issues with dredge feed and wet shed operations. These operational challenges have led to increased operating expenses per ton, elevated third-party service costs, and downtime, negatively impacting overall efficiency and profitability. Furthermore, the company has encountered declining sand volumes and pressure on logistics margins due to factors like seasonality and falling trucking rates. These inefficiencies contribute to higher costs of goods sold and have raised concerns about the company's ability to meet projected output targets.
  3. Financial Stability Concerns, including Debt and Share Dilution: The company has demonstrated a reliance on debt financing to fuel its growth initiatives, leading to increased long-term debt. To conserve capital for strategic growth opportunities, particularly in its power business, Atlas Energy Solutions has suspended its dividend. Additionally, the issuance of new shares has resulted in share dilution, impacting earnings per share for existing shareholders. The uncertainty surrounding potential changes in U.S. trade policy and the imposition of tariffs also poses a risk, as increased raw material costs could strain financial performance if they cannot be passed on to customers.

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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) operates in three main product and service segments: frac sand (proppant) production, logistics, and distributed power solutions.
  • Frac Sand (Proppant) Production: The addressable market for frac sand, specifically in the Permian Basin where Atlas Energy Solutions primarily operates, was estimated at nearly 60 million tons per year in 2023. This demand is projected to increase to almost 80 million tons by 2025. The Permian Basin is a significant region, expected to account for approximately 60% of total U.S. proppant demand in both 2024 and 2025. More broadly, the global frac sand market was valued at approximately $9.61 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach $19.81 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.50% between 2025 and 2034.
  • Logistics (Last Mile and Proppant Logistics): While a specific dollar value for the addressable market of proppant logistics is not explicitly stated, Atlas Energy Solutions' Dune Express system alone transports 13 million tons of frac sand annually within the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian. This highlights a significant operational scale within the Permian Basin's broader proppant market. The company's acquisition of Hi-Crush's Permian Basin proppant production and North American logistics operations further expanded its capabilities in this area.
  • Distributed Power Solutions: Atlas Energy Solutions is expanding its power business to provide long-term power solutions. The tangible opportunity set for permanent power installations in commercial, industrial, and data center end markets is approaching 2 gigawatts (GW). The company aims to have over 400 megawatts (MW) of power generation capacity deployed across its business by early 2027, with the majority under long-term contracts. This market is primarily focused on the U.S. region, particularly where energy demand in commercial, industrial, and technology sectors is growing.

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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion of Power Generation Business: Atlas is making significant strides in its power business, with plans to deploy over 400 megawatts of power by early 2027. The majority of these assets are anticipated to be under long-term contracts, indicating a strategic expansion into distributed power systems as a new and growing revenue stream.
  2. Increased Market Share and Proppant/Logistics Volumes in the Permian Basin: The company has successfully grown its market share in the Permian Basin to approximately 35% during a challenging market, with expectations for further growth. As activity levels in the Permian Basin stabilize and potentially increase, Atlas's focus on its core proppant supply and integrated logistics network is expected to translate into higher sales volumes.
  3. Strategic Acquisitions and Integration of New Technologies/Services: Atlas has demonstrated a commitment to growth through strategic acquisitions. For example, the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems expanded its capabilities in the power segment, and the PropFlow acquisition introduced patented on-wellsite proppant filtration technology, enhancing its logistics operations and overall service offerings. These integrations allow for broader solution offerings and new market entries, driving revenue diversification.
  4. Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Integrated Logistics Network: While primarily focused on cost savings and margin improvement, significant investments in operational efficiencies, including new capital projects like the Dune Express and PropFlow, are expected to bolster Atlas's competitive advantage. A more efficient and integrated logistics network can enable the company to handle higher volumes, offer more competitive services, and secure additional long-term contracts, indirectly contributing to revenue growth by strengthening its market position.

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**Share Repurchases**

  • Atlas Energy Solutions initiated a $200 million stock repurchase program on October 28, 2024, authorized through December 31, 2026.

**Share Issuance**

  • Atlas Energy Solutions completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on March 9, 2023, offering 18,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $18.00 per share, raising approximately $292.9 million, or $338.4 million if underwriters exercised their option for additional shares.
  • On January 30, 2025, the company priced an upsized underwritten public offering of 11,500,000 shares of common stock at $23.00 per share, generating total gross proceeds of $264.5 million.
  • The number of shares outstanding increased by 9.07% in the last 12 months (as of a recent reporting period).

**Outbound Investments**

  • Atlas Energy Solutions acquired Moser Engine Service, Inc. (d/b/a Moser Energy Systems) for $220 million in the first quarter of 2025. This acquisition aims to diversify the company's portfolio into power generation.
  • Following the second quarter of 2025, Atlas acquired PropFlow, a patented on-site proppant filtration system.

**Capital Expenditures**

  • Annual capital expenditures were $89.592 million in 2022 and $365.486 million in 2023.
  • Total capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were approximately $69.6 million, with a budget of $115 million for the full year 2025.
  • A significant focus of capital expenditures includes the Dune Express conveyor system, which was expected to cost approximately $400 million and began commercial service in Q2 2025, enhancing proppant delivery efficiency. Capital expenditures are also directed towards power-related growth following the Moser Acquisition.

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Financials

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Mkt Price11.854.6623.9011.2534.3951.3017.88
Mkt Cap1.50.23.91.229.276.72.7
Rev LTM1,1173354,0061,30022,13735,7092,653
Op Inc LTM25190263,1945,45758
FCF LTM-181114381,8744,54326
FCF 3Y Avg-6111201662,0534,520134
CFO LTM184236101883,2176,489399
CFO 3Y Avg240258183013,4166,576559

Growth & Margins

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Rev Chg LTM20.7%19.0%-7.2%-11.7%-4.1%-1.6%-2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg43.6%17.5%-0.6%5.7%5.7%8.6%7.2%
Rev Chg Q-14.7%46.9%10.1%-18.6%-1.7%5.0%1.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.9%9.7%2.4%-4.9%-0.4%1.3%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%0.3%2.3%2.0%14.4%15.3%2.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.0%0.3%9.0%7.2%16.7%16.4%12.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.6%2.9%0.3%-1.1%-1.0%-0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM16.5%6.8%15.2%14.5%14.5%18.2%14.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.4%8.2%18.6%20.1%15.0%18.8%18.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%8.5%12.7%3.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.8%3.5%4.4%4.5%9.0%12.9%4.4%

Valuation

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Mkt Cap1.50.23.91.229.276.72.7
P/S1.30.51.00.91.32.11.1
P/EBIT41.482.016.4-116.812.315.816.1
P/E-107.446.326.2-68.922.322.722.5
P/CFO7.97.96.46.29.111.87.9
Total Yield7.2%6.5%5.2%-1.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%
Dividend Yield8.1%4.4%1.4%0.0%2.0%2.1%2.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.1%12.2%6.5%6.8%7.9%7.4%7.1%
D/E0.40.20.20.20.30.20.2
Net D/E0.40.20.20.10.20.10.2

Returns

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
1M Rtn21.2%12.4%26.9%14.0%7.7%17.1%15.6%
3M Rtn5.3%122.0%37.8%3.8%27.7%41.5%32.7%
6M Rtn-0.2%150.1%112.3%135.4%64.3%58.6%88.3%
12M Rtn-44.3%112.4%33.8%22.7%34.4%28.4%31.1%
3Y Rtn-20.1%195.8%64.4%15.5%-4.6%5.1%10.3%
1M Excs Rtn21.4%12.7%27.1%14.3%8.0%17.4%15.8%
3M Excs Rtn-6.8%119.4%30.3%2.3%26.9%39.2%28.6%
6M Excs Rtn-13.0%137.0%97.5%105.0%51.6%46.3%74.5%
12M Excs Rtn-58.8%99.4%21.2%12.8%24.0%17.0%19.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.3%121.3%-7.5%-52.8%-80.1%-73.1%-63.0%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202420232022
Product sales468408143
Service sales1467430
Total614483172


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$11.86 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.5 
First Trading Date03/09/2023 
Distance from 52W High-44.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$10.18$11.59
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA16.5%2.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility56.5%58.1%
Downside Capture-10.24177.60
Upside Capture21.4892.73
Correlation (SPY)2.1%48.3%
AESI Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.581.190.791.171.480.12
Up Beta0.10-1.29-0.690.481.200.19
Down Beta0.190.901.491.441.920.05
Up Capture335%372%60%96%88%44%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days15253359114363
Down Capture-147%34%105%143%141%101%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days5162763132353

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AESI
AESI-44.0%58.0%-0.78-
Sector ETF (XLE)22.9%25.2%0.7765.7%
Equity (SPY)15.9%19.2%0.6448.5%
Gold (GLD)76.1%24.5%2.277.3%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%16.5%0.3647.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%16.5%0.1034.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-24.7%40.5%-0.6021.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AESI
AESI-4.2%46.3%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLE)25.5%26.5%0.8659.2%
Equity (SPY)14.2%17.0%0.6638.6%
Gold (GLD)21.5%16.8%1.048.7%
Commodities (DBC)12.1%18.9%0.5241.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1726.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)18.0%57.4%0.5212.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AESI
AESI-2.1%46.3%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLE)11.1%29.6%0.4159.2%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7538.6%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.5%0.848.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%17.6%0.3941.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.9%20.8%0.2526.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)69.3%66.5%1.0912.6%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 123120255.4%
Average Daily Volume2.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity123.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.7%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-15.9%-15.9%-20.6%
8/4/20251.4%-5.4%-10.4%
5/5/2025-10.6%-6.0%-6.0%
1/27/20253.2%-4.0%-17.9%
10/28/20241.7%-0.3%19.0%
8/5/20245.6%9.5%11.9%
2/27/20248.1%5.6%21.1%
10/30/2023-5.6%-1.7%-11.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive523
# Negative365
Median Positive3.2%7.6%19.0%
Median Negative-10.6%-4.7%-11.6%
Max Positive8.1%9.5%21.1%
Max Negative-15.9%-15.9%-20.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/25/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202310/31/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/10/2023424B4
09/30/202201/31/2023S-1

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Scholla, ChrisDirectSell122920258.8252,150459,9634,859,000Form
2Rogers, Douglas G DirectBuy516202513.277,00092,862132,660Form
3Brigham, Ben MExecutive ChairmanDirectBuy515202513.389,635128,8867,656,897Form
4Brigham, Ben MExecutive ChairmanDirectBuy513202513.3220,400271,6857,373,335Form
5Brigham, Ben MExecutive ChairmanDirectBuy513202513.369,121121,8737,519,513Form