Tearsheet

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.74 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.74
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  Key risks
AESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more.
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
9 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
10 Key risks
AESI key risks include [1] significant operational inefficiencies at its Kermit facility driving up costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AESI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) stock moved by approximately -17.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analysts downgraded Atlas Energy Solutions' stock rating and lowered their price targets. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Strong Sell" with a reduced price target of $8.00 on November 21, 2025. Similarly, Barclays downgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Sell" and lowered its price target to $7.00 on November 14, 2025. RBC Capital also downgraded the stock to "Sector Perform" in October 2025.

2. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: On November 3, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions reported a net loss of $23.7 million for Q3 2025, a significant decline compared to previous quarters, and total revenue decreased by 10.1% from Q2 2025 to $259.6 million. The company also missed revenue estimates.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AESI Return35%-54%
Peers Return-28%14%50%-1%-1%14%39%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AESI Win Rate67%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%60%40%45%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AESI Max Drawdown-8%-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-79%-7%-6%-26%-19%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SND, LBRT, PUMP, HAL, SLB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)

Better Bets than Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AESI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Atlas Energy Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Mkt Price9.663.8017.059.0427.7238.5613.36
Mkt Cap1.20.12.80.923.50.11.1
Rev LTM1,1173353,9111,30022,13735,2482,605
Op Inc LTM25175263,1945,68850
FCF LTM-1811-2381,8743,86225
FCF 3Y Avg-6111240662,0534,059153
CFO LTM184235911883,2175,874390
CFO 3Y Avg240258323013,4166,112566

Growth & Margins

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Rev Chg LTM20.7%19.0%-12.0%-11.7%-4.1%-2.1%-3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg43.6%17.5%4.8%5.7%5.7%10.5%8.1%
Rev Chg Q-14.7%46.9%-16.8%-18.6%-1.7%-2.5%-8.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.9%9.7%-4.7%-4.9%-0.4%-0.7%-2.3%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%0.3%1.9%2.0%14.4%16.1%2.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.0%0.3%10.0%7.2%16.7%16.6%13.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.6%2.9%-2.8%-1.1%-1.0%-0.8%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.5%6.8%15.1%14.5%14.5%16.7%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.4%8.2%18.7%20.1%15.0%17.7%18.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.6%3.4%-0.1%3.0%8.5%11.0%3.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.8%3.5%5.1%4.5%9.0%11.7%4.8%

Valuation

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
Mkt Cap1.20.12.80.923.50.11.1
P/S1.30.20.50.40.90.00.5
P/EBIT39.6-7.2-54.58.80.07.2
P/E-102.721.210.7-32.115.90.05.4
P/CFO7.63.63.42.96.50.03.5
Total Yield7.5%14.2%12.0%-3.1%9.1%10,304.9%10.5%
Dividend Yield8.4%9.5%2.6%0.0%2.8%3,095.4%5.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.9%-7.6%8.5%7.8%5,432.6%7.8%
D/E0.4-0.30.40.4252.30.4
Net D/E0.4-0.30.20.3181.50.3

Returns

AESISNDLBRTPUMPHALSLBMedian
NameAtlas En.Smart Sa.Liberty .ProPetro Hallibur.SLB  
1M Rtn13.0%40.3%6.4%-7.2%4.8%8.6%7.5%
3M Rtn-12.5%93.0%57.5%89.6%25.4%11.7%41.4%
6M Rtn-32.3%85.3%31.5%36.0%26.2%9.3%28.8%
12M Rtn-54.8%86.5%-6.4%-2.8%5.0%2.2%-0.3%
3Y Rtn-148.6%15.4%-6.7%-17.2%-15.8%-6.7%
1M Excs Rtn12.3%39.6%5.7%-8.0%4.1%7.8%6.8%
3M Excs Rtn-13.9%80.7%52.8%82.1%23.4%10.5%38.1%
6M Excs Rtn-44.6%72.9%19.2%23.6%13.8%-3.1%16.5%
12M Excs Rtn-67.1%70.1%-18.9%-11.9%-11.5%-12.2%-12.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-88.0%-46.9%-76.0%-81.9%-83.8%-76.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Product sales468408143
Service sales1467430
Total614483172


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,368,355
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.6%
Average Daily Volume2,745,039
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.87
Basic Shares Quantity123,737,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-15.9%-15.9%-20.6%
8/4/20251.4%-5.4%-10.4%
5/5/2025-10.6%-6.0%-6.0%
1/27/20253.2%-4.0%-17.9%
10/28/20241.7%-0.3%19.0%
8/5/20245.6%9.5%11.9%
2/27/20248.1%5.6%21.1%
10/30/2023-5.6%-1.7%-11.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive523
# Negative365
Median Positive3.2%7.6%19.0%
Median Negative-10.6%-4.7%-11.6%
Max Positive8.1%9.5%21.1%
Max Negative-15.9%-15.9%-20.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
123120223102023424B4 12/31/2022
123120211312023S-1 12/31/2021