Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $78.14 | Market Cap: $50.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $78.14Market Cap: $50.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.8% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51% Key risksXEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51% |
| Key risksXEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Xcel Energy (XEL) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Earnings and Reaffirmed Long-Term Growth Targets: Xcel Energy reported robust ongoing earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.39 by 9.4%. This strong performance was driven by higher electric revenues, constructive regulatory outcomes, sales growth, and favorable weather. The company narrowed its full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10-$4.16 per share and initiated a 2027 guidance of $4.48-$4.62 per share, while also extending its expectation to deliver 9%+ EPS growth on average through 2031. These positive financial results and forward-looking guidance provided a strong company-specific uplift, counteracting broader market pressures.
2. Ambitious Capital Investment Plan and Favorable Regulatory Environment: Xcel Energy unveiled an updated $70 billion five-year capital investment plan through 2031, projecting an approximate 11% annualized rate-base growth. This significant investment in clean generation and high-voltage transmission infrastructure was supported by constructive regulatory outcomes, such as the approval of electric and natural gas rate case settlements in Colorado in September 2026, which included a base rate increase of approximately $184 million. These strategic investments and regulatory certainty underpin the company's long-term growth trajectory and appeal to investors seeking stable utility sector returns, thus contributing to the stock's stability.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Earnings and Reaffirmed Long-Term Growth Targets: Xcel Energy reported robust ongoing earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.39 by 9.4%. This strong performance was driven by higher electric revenues, constructive regulatory outcomes, sales growth, and favorable weather. The company narrowed its full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10-$4.16 per share and initiated a 2027 guidance of $4.48-$4.62 per share, while also extending its expectation to deliver 9%+ EPS growth on average through 2031. These positive financial results and forward-looking guidance provided a strong company-specific uplift, counteracting broader market pressures.
2. Ambitious Capital Investment Plan and Favorable Regulatory Environment: Xcel Energy unveiled an updated $70 billion five-year capital investment plan through 2031, projecting an approximate 11% annualized rate-base growth. This significant investment in clean generation and high-voltage transmission infrastructure was supported by constructive regulatory outcomes, such as the approval of electric and natural gas rate case settlements in Colorado in September 2026, which included a base rate increase of approximately $184 million. These strategic investments and regulatory certainty underpin the company's long-term growth trajectory and appeal to investors seeking stable utility sector returns, thus contributing to the stock's stability.
3. Sector-Wide Headwinds from Rising Interest Rates and Inflation: The broader utilities sector faced significant headwinds during fiscal Q3 2026, with the sector falling 12.4% and lagging other major sectors. This underperformance was largely due to rising interest rates and persistent inflation, which increased financing costs for capital-intensive utility companies and made their dividend yields less attractive compared to rising bond yields. These macroeconomic factors exerted downward pressure on Xcel Energy's stock, offsetting some of its positive company-specific developments and contributing to its largely flat performance.
4. Potential Share Dilution from Equity Offering: In October 2026, Xcel Energy announced a plan to potentially offer and sell up to $6 billion in common stock. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of approximately $3.1 billion in consolidated short-term borrowings as of September 30, 2026, and funding capital expenditures. While addressing financial needs and supporting growth, the prospect of share dilution can temper upward stock movement as it increases the number of outstanding shares, potentially reducing earnings per share for existing shareholders.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in XEL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.58 | 78.76 | 1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,616 | 14,873 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.7 | 18.6 | -14.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 625 | 629 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | -3.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | -2.1% | 88.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.6% change in XEL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.67 | 78.76 | -3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,784 | 14,873 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.1% | 17.9% | 26.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.4 | 18.6 | -23.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 624 | 629 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | -7.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | -6.7% | 88.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in XEL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.73 | 78.76 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,228 | 14,873 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 17.9% | 33.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 18.6 | -23.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 592 | 629 | -5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | 0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | -1.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -0.5% | 83.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47.0% change in XEL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.57 | 78.76 | 47.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,817 | 14,873 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.8% | 17.9% | 52.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 18.6 | 9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 552 | 629 | -12.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 47.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | 47.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.6% | 9.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | 57.9% | 70.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XEL Return | 4% | 6% | -9% | 12% | 14% | 9% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -1% | -11% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XEL Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 53% | 58% | 63% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XEL Max Drawdown | -14% | -25% | -22% | -24% | -11% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -26% | -27% | -13% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, SO, DUK, AEP, D. See XEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Xcel Energy's stock fell -2.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | XEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Xcel Energy's stock fell -2.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Xcel Energy (XEL)
Xcel Energy (XEL) is a prominent utility company primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity and natural gas. The company operates a diverse energy portfolio, generating electricity from sources such as coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, and wind, alongside purchasing power from external providers. Simultaneously, Xcel Energy is responsible for the procurement, transportation, and distribution of natural gas to its service areas.
The company's main services include providing reliable electricity and natural gas to a vast customer base. Beyond its core utility operations, Xcel Energy also develops and leases natural gas pipelines, storage, and compression facilities, and makes strategic investments in rental housing projects. Its primary customers are residential, commercial, and industrial clients, totaling approximately 3.7 million electricity customers and 2.1 million natural gas customers across portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin.
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Analogies:
- Xcel Energy is like AT&T for electricity and natural gas.
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- Electricity Utility Services: Xcel Energy generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Natural Gas Utility Services: The company purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers.
- Natural Gas Transportation Services: Xcel Energy also provides services for transporting customer-owned natural gas.
- Natural Gas Infrastructure Services: The company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, along with storage and compression facilities.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) primarily sells electricity and natural gas directly to end-users across several states. Its major customer categories are:
- Residential customers
- Commercial customers
- Industrial customers
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Major suppliers for Xcel Energy include:
- Vestas Wind Systems A/S (CPH: VWS)
- Siemens Energy AG (XTRA: ENR)
- Array Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARRY)
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Robert (Bob) Frenzel, Chairman, President and CEO
Bob Frenzel was appointed Chairman, President and CEO of Xcel Energy in August 2021. He joined Xcel Energy in 2016 as Chief Financial Officer. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, leading Xcel Energy's four utility operating companies, as well as its transmission, distribution, and natural gas operations. Before joining Xcel Energy, Frenzel served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Luminant, a competitive power generating subsidiary of Energy Future Holdings, Inc. At Energy Future Holdings (EFH), he also held the position of Senior Vice President for Corporate Development, Strategy, and Mergers & Acquisitions, where he was responsible for overall corporate and business unit strategy, and identifying priorities for growth, investment, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures. Earlier in his career, Frenzel was a Vice President at Goldman Sachs in the energy and power group, focusing on strategic and financial transactions, including corporate and asset-level acquisitions and divestitures, and capital-raising activities. He also worked as a Manager and Senior Consultant at Arthur Andersen. Frenzel began his career serving six years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear engineering officer and weapons officer.
Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian Van Abel is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Xcel Energy, leading the company's finance functions. He was promoted to this role on March 31, 2020. Van Abel joined Xcel Energy in 2010. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Corporate Development, where he was responsible for developing the company's short- and long-term financial plans and executing acquisitions and divestitures. He also previously held the role of Vice President and Treasurer, managing the company's capital structure and ensuring sufficient liquidity. Before joining Xcel Energy, Van Abel spent four years in management consulting in the retail banking sector, advising financial institutions on various engagements.
Amanda Rome, Executive Vice President, Group President - Utilities, and Chief Customer Officer
Amanda Rome is the Executive Vice President, Group President - Utilities, and Chief Customer Officer, responsible for the strategic direction of Xcel Energy's four operating companies and its customer-facing organizations. Rome joined Xcel Energy in 2015 as the lead regulatory attorney for the company's northern jurisdictions. She previously served as Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, overseeing the law department and overall legal strategy, and as Vice President, Deputy General Counsel, leading the company's regulatory, commercial, and environmental groups. Prior to her time at Xcel Energy, Rome worked as a federal court litigator at Winston & Strawn in Chicago and Faegre Baker Daniels in Minneapolis.
Ryan Long, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer
Ryan Long serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, overseeing Xcel Energy's legal and corporate compliance group. He joined Xcel Energy in 2015. Before stepping into his current role, he served as Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, managing legal teams responsible for federal and state regulatory, environmental, and real estate matters. Prior to joining Xcel Energy, Long worked as a litigator for Faegre Baker Daniels in Minneapolis and Cravath Swaine & Moore in New York City.
Tim O'Connor, Executive Vice President, Chief Operations Officer
Tim O'Connor was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer of Xcel Energy in August 2021. In this role, he oversees nuclear generation, energy supply, supply chain, commercial operations, distribution, transmission, and the company's natural gas business. O'Connor joined Xcel Energy in 2007, and prior to his current position, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Generation Officer since 2020. He is recognized for his contributions to building one of the nation's top-performing nuclear fleets.
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Here are the key risks to Xcel Energy (XEL):
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Wildfire Risk and Associated Litigation and Liability: Xcel Energy operates in regions, particularly Colorado and Texas, that are increasingly susceptible to wildfires. These events pose significant operational, financial, and reputational risks. The company is currently facing ongoing litigation related to past wildfires, such as the Marshall and Smokehouse Creek fires, which create substantial financial uncertainty and could lead to significant liabilities. To mitigate this, Xcel Energy is undertaking considerable investments in wildfire prevention and safety measures, including extensive mitigation plans.
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Regulatory and Policy Risks Related to Decarbonization and Energy Transition: Xcel Energy is committed to an aggressive clean energy transition, aiming for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from its natural gas business by 2050. This transition necessitates massive capital investments in new renewable generation, transmission infrastructure, and grid modernization. The company's ability to recover these substantial costs and achieve targeted returns is highly dependent on favorable regulatory approvals and consistent policy frameworks across the multiple states it serves. Unfavorable regulatory outcomes, delays in project approvals, or evolving environmental policies could significantly impact its financial performance and growth prospects. There is also a risk of stranded assets, particularly from over-investing in natural gas plants that may conflict with long-term decarbonization goals.
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Significant Capital Expenditure Requirements and Financial Risks: Xcel Energy has outlined a substantial capital expenditure program, totaling approximately $45 billion through 2029, primarily focused on clean energy and grid modernization initiatives. Funding this extensive investment plan requires frequent access to capital markets and often involves taking on significant debt. Consequently, the company is exposed to financial risks such as rising interest rates, which can increase borrowing costs and impact profitability, and potential disruptions in capital markets that could hinder its ability to secure necessary financing.
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The clear emerging threat for Xcel Energy is the accelerating adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), primarily customer-owned rooftop solar panels combined with battery storage systems. This trend allows residential, commercial, and industrial customers to generate and store their own electricity, significantly reducing their reliance on purchasing power from Xcel Energy's grid. This directly impacts Xcel Energy's electricity sales and customer base, potentially leading to decreased revenue and underutilization of its generation, transmission, and distribution assets.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Significant Capital Investments and Rate Base Growth: Xcel Energy has outlined ambitious capital investment plans, including approximately $45 billion from 2025-2029 and $60 billion from 2026-2030, aimed at modernizing and expanding its transmission, distribution, electric generation, and renewable energy infrastructure. These strategic investments enable the company to grow its rate base, which, as a regulated utility, allows it to recover costs and earn a return through approved rate increases, directly contributing to revenue growth.
- Expanding Customer Base: Xcel Energy continues to see consistent growth in its customer base for both electric and natural gas services. For example, in the second quarter of 2025, the electric customer base increased by 1% year-over-year, and the natural gas customer base improved by 0.9%. In 2025, electric customer volume grew by 0.7%, and natural gas customer volume increased by 0.8%. This organic expansion in the number of customers served translates into higher sales volumes and, consequently, increased revenue.
- Rising Electricity Demand, Particularly from Data Centers: A significant driver of future electric sales growth is the increasing demand from data centers. Xcel Energy has doubled its data center contracted capacity target to 6 GW by the end of 2027, up from an earlier target of 3 GW. This surge in demand from high-load data center facilities represents a substantial opportunity for increased electricity sales.
- Overall Electric Sales Volume Growth: Beyond specific customer segments, Xcel Energy anticipates general growth in its electric sales volumes. The company projects weather-normalized retail electric sales growth of approximately 3% in 2026, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue.
- Natural Gas Sales Volume Growth: The company also forecasts an increase in natural gas sales volumes, with an expected growth of 1% in 2026. This contributes to the overall revenue stream from its regulated natural gas utility segment.
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Share Repurchases
- Xcel Energy has not made significant share repurchases in recent years, with fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 showing an average buyback yield of -1.6%, indicating net issuance.
- Quarterly data reveals very small amounts of share buybacks, such as $22.50K in March 2025, $51.33K in March 2023, and $159.98K in March 2022.
Share Issuance
- Xcel Energy's shares outstanding have been increasing, with 0.589 billion shares in 2025, representing a 4.62% increase from 2024.
- The company's share count increased by 5% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting accelerating dilution.
- As of February 26, 2026, Xcel Energy registered 7,484,917 shares of its common stock for issuance under its Dividend Reinvestment and Stock Purchase Plan.
Capital Expenditures
- Xcel Energy has a five-year capital investment plan for 2026-2030 totaling $60 billion, a significant increase from its previous forecast of $45 billion.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on modernizing and expanding the grid, integrating clean energy, and enhancing reliability, including investments in approximately 11,000 MW of wind capacity, major solar projects, and 1,500 miles of new transmission lines. Specifically, $23.4 billion is allocated for electric generation, $15.4 billion for electric transmission, and $13.9 billion for electric distribution.
- Historical capital expenditures show a ramp-up, from -$4.24 billion in fiscal year 2021 to -$7.36 billion in 2024, with nearly $12 billion invested in 2025 as the largest annual total.
Peer Outperformance in Multi-Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | Xcel Energy | 0.3% | 18.6x | -0.1% | 42.8% | 45.6% | — |
| CNP | CenterPoint Energy | 2.3% | 24.3x | 13.2% | 67.6% | 83.5% | +38pp |
| NWE | NorthWestern Energy | 4.1% | 28.7x | 38.4% | 76.7% | 73.3% | +28pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -44.0% | 101.0% | 138.2% | NRG 174% · OKLO 138% · TAC 30% |
| Multi-Utilities ← | 18 | 6.8% | 54.7% | 50.5% | PNW 108% · NI 107% · MDU 97% |
| Electric Utilities | 24 | 6.3% | 52.5% | 48.5% | VST 673% · ETR 153% · AEP 83% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 8.9% | 59.0% | 47.3% | ATO 111% · SR 73% · NJR 66% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 12.4% | 0.5% | -3.7% | WTRG 10% · AWR 7% · HTO -2% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -73.3% | -75.0% | -89.9% | ORA 31% · CWEN 26% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 84.5 |
| Rev LTM | 26,218 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,468 |
| FCF LTM | -5,280 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -3,082 |
| CFO LTM | 9,116 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,229 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 84.5 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.9 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 12,161 | 11,149 | 11,448 | 12,125 | 11,207 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 2,478 | 2,252 | 2,648 | 3,082 | 2,134 |
| Non-segment revenues | 57 | 64 | 115 | 107 | |
| Intersegment revenue | -27 | -24 | -5 | -4 | -4 |
| Other | 94 | ||||
| Total | 14,669 | 13,441 | 14,206 | 15,310 | 13,431 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 715 | -65 | ||
| Electric Utility | 479 | 535 | 341 | |
| Gas Utility | 99 | 82 | 58 | |
| NRG | -3,464 | 265 | 183 | |
| eprime | 9 | -6 | ||
| Xcel Energy International | 29 | |||
| Electric | 456 | |||
| Gas | 50 | |||
| Total | -2,172 | 825 | 605 | 507 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 1,870 | 1,846 | 1,686 | 1,631 | 1,478 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 256 | 237 | 219 | 264 | 231 |
| Other | -112 | ||||
| Total | 2,126 | 2,083 | 1,905 | 1,895 | 1,597 |
| $ Mil | 1997 |
|---|---|
| Electric | 4,845 |
| Gas | 675 |
| Total | 5,520 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $78.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 49.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $74.60 | $77.36 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| Downside Capture | -7.79 | 0.00 |
| Upside Capture | 14.78 | 0.92 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -2.4% | -0.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.58 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.12 | -0.02 | 0.13 |
| Up Beta | 1.27 | 0.32 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.17 |
| Down Beta | -0.70 | -0.99 | -0.96 | -0.21 | -0.05 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | 48% | 39% | 21% | -8% | -0% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 25 | 35 | 68 | 132 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -152% | -13% | 8% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 18 | 29 | 58 | 119 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | 0.0% | 19.3% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -0.5% | 15.7% | -0.23 | 83.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | -1.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.4% | 28.6% | -0.10 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.0% | 20.9% | 1.56 | -8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.7% | 0.48 | 53.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.9% | 43.5% | -0.70 | -5.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | 7.5% | 20.9% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.3% | 17.4% | 0.32 | 78.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 25.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 50.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 51.5% | 0.28 | 7.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | 10.3% | 21.7% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.4% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 85.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 40.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 14.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 60.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.1% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 6.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 1.0% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -0.0% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.4% | -3.0% | -7.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 4.7% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 1.0% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -0.0% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.4% | -3.0% | -7.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 6.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.1% | -1.6% | 3.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.8% | 3.8% | -1.4% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 0.0% | -2.5% | -8.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -8.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -0.5% | 1.1% | -4.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.4% | 3.0% | 9.7% |
| 7/28/2022 | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| 4/28/2022 | -2.2% | -2.8% | 1.9% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.3% | 0.8% | -2.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 0.5% | -0.1% | -7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 4.7% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
XEL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Xcel is executing a highly visible $70 billion investment plan, driving a projected 9%+ average EPS growth through 2031. This growth is fueled by strong data center demand. While the plan requires significant debt, the company has a strong record of securing the regulatory approvals needed to earn returns on these investments.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Regulated UtilityRevenue ≈ (Regulated Rate Base x Allowed Return on Equity) + Pass-Through Fuel & Operating Costs Growth in the regulated rate base through successful execution of large-scale capital expenditure programs, coupled with constructive regulatory outcomes that allow for timely cost recovery and attractive returns.
INVESTMENT THESIS
A new $70 billion plan provides a clear path to ~5% annual rate base growth, fueled by data center demand.
- The five-year capital investment plan for 2027-2031 was increased to $70 billion.
- The company extended its 9%+ average EPS growth outlook to 2031.
- Weather-normalized electric sales growth is guided to accelerate to ~5% in 2027.
- Management expects to contract for an additional 4 GW of data centers by the end of 2027.
PRIMARY RISK
The growth plan's success depends on regulators allowing recovery of costs and on capital markets funding a business with -$7.6 billion in trailing free cash flow and $40.2 billion in net debt.
- Net debt is $40.2 billion, or 5.6 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $7.6 billion.
- Capital expenditure is 85.3% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
- Profitability depends on regulators approving cost recovery for investments.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Investment Plan / Rate Base Growth | A $70 billion five-year (2027-2031) capital investment plan, which extends an outlook for approximately 11% annualized rate base growth into 2031. - Accelerating | Management has consistently signaled a growing pipeline of investment opportunities, which has now been incorporated into a larger official base plan, driven by demand, grid modernization, and the clean energy transition. |
| Weather-Normalized Electric Sales Growth | 3.0% weather-normalized total retail electric sales growth in the third quarter of 2026. - Stable | Growth is supported by both an increase in customers and higher usage per customer, particularly from the energy and manufacturing sectors across its service territories. |
| 5-Year Capital Investment Plan (2027-2031) | $70 billion (as of October 2026) | This is the primary indicator of future rate base growth, which is the main driver of earnings and revenue for a regulated utility. A large, defined plan provides high visibility into future growth. |
| Weather-Normalized Retail Electric Sales Growth (2027 Guidance) | ~5% (FY 2027) | Signals underlying demand growth from economic activity, electrification, and new large loads like data centers, independent of weather fluctuations. Strong growth necessitates further capital investment. |
| Incremental Investment Opportunities Pipeline | exceeds $10 billion (as of October 2026) | Represents potential upside to the base capital plan, driven by new generation RFPs, transmission projects, and infrastructure to serve new data centers. Conversion of this pipeline into approved projects signals an extension of the growth cycle. |
Visible Growth Plan vs. Financial Strain
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the $70 billion capital plan, which provides a clear, multi-year path to rate base growth and 9%+ EPS growth, a rare level of visibility in the current market.
CORE TENSION
Can the earnings power from the $70B plan materialize fast enough to service the $40.2B in net debt required to build it?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company successfully secured constructive outcomes on 90% of its rate base and the market reacted positively to the larger growth plan.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a highly levered company (5.6x Net Debt/EBITDA) with deeply negative cash flow taking on huge execution risk that could be derailed by a single adverse regulatory ruling.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
the fourth quarter of 2026 | Adverse Regulatory Rate Case Decisions Watch: Final orders on allowed ROE, equity ratios, and cost disallowances from the MPUC and NMPRC. |
by the end of 2026 | Failure To Secure Data Center Contracts Watch: Company announcements of new Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) and progress toward the 1 GW target. |
1/25/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Peer commentary on capital spending trends, project costs, and demand from large load customers. |
2/3/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-30 | Sherco Coal Replacement Projects Approved Details: In September 2026, the MPUC approved recommended projects for wind assets to replace capacity from the retiring Sherco coal facilities. | +1.0% $79.04 -> $79.82 |
2026-10-30 | Minnesota Large Load Tariff Approved Details: In June 2026, the MPUC approved a tariff for new loads over 100 MW, a key enabler for the company's data center growth strategy. | +1.0% $79.04 -> $79.82 |
2026-10-30 | Prairie Island Outage Disallowance Details: In May 2026, the MPUC ordered a disallowance of $41 million for replacement power costs, resulting in non-recurring charges of $38 million for customer refunds. | +1.0% $79.04 -> $79.82 |
2026-10-29 | Q3 Earnings and Major Strategic Update Details: Reported Q3 ongoing EPS of $1.52, narrowed 2026 guidance to $4.10-$4.16, initiated 2027 guidance of $4.48-$4.62, and announced a new $70 billion five-year capital plan. | +3.4% $77.18 -> $79.82 |
2026-10-06 | Announced Sale of Michigan Operations Details: | +1.3% $71.49 -> $72.42 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings Report and Negative Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 2026 ongoing EPS of $0.93. The stock had a two-day reaction of -1.0% versus 2.0% for the S&P 500 around the earnings call. | -0.7% $78.12 -> $77.58 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XEL trades at roughly 18% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NEE - NextEra Energy
Higher-Efficiency GrowthSO - a business partner
Alternative Scale Playera business partner provides a similar large-scale utility build-out story, having recently announced contracts for 6 GW of new load, demonstrating its own capacity to win large projects.
A regulated utility executing a super-cycle of capital investment to capture growth from the energy transition and the data center boom.
Xcel Energy's core investment thesis is centered on its $70 billion, five-year capital plan, which provides a clear and predictable path to ~11% annual rate base growth. This spending is driven by two powerful tailwinds: the transition to renewable energy and unprecedented demand growth from data centers. The company has a strong track record of regulatory execution and is structuring contracts for new large loads to protect existing customers, making the growth story more secure. An additional pipeline of over $10 billion in opportunities provides further upside.
Constructive outcomes in pending rate cases, approval of new large-scale generation or transmission projects, and announcements of new, large data center contracts (ESAs).
Adverse regulatory decisions (e.g., lower ROEs, cost disallowances), significant project delays or cost overruns, or a slowdown in data center development in its service territories.
Quarterly earnings fluctuations due to weather (which are often normalized or recovered via decoupling mechanisms) and short-term commodity price swings (which are largely passed through to customers).
Repricing Catalyst
Continued execution on the $70 billion capital plan and conversion of the $10 billion incremental opportunity pipeline, particularly securing contracts for the targeted 4 GW of new data centers by the end of 2027.
Regulated Electric utility
$12.2B TTM (83% of Total)What It Is
The segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial (C&I) customers, and sells to wholesale customers.
Who Pays & How
Retail and wholesale customers pay for electricity to power homes, businesses, and industrial operations. Customers choose Xcel as it is the regulated monopoly provider in its service territories, responsible for ensuring reliable power.
Competition
Regulated Natural Gas utility
$2.5B TTM (17% of Total)What It Is
The segment transports, stores, and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Retail customers pay for natural gas primarily for heating homes and businesses. They are served by Xcel as the regulated local distribution company.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Multi-Utilities Resources |
| Public Utilities Fortnightly |
| Power Magazine |
| Energy Central |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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