Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $37.14 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $37.14Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% Key risksASTH key risks include [1] execution and profitability challenges in its strategic shift to full-risk contracts, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Key risksASTH key risks include [1] execution and profitability challenges in its strategic shift to full-risk contracts, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Astrana Health (ASTH) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Astrana Health reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and raising full-year guidance.
The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), reported on August 6, 2026, which substantially beat analysts' consensus estimates of $0.34 by $0.46. Revenue for the quarter also increased by 49% year-over-year to $972.5 million. Following these results, management raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full fiscal year 2026, signaling confidence in continued operational strength and future performance.
2. Analysts responded with positive rating reaffirmations and increased price targets, indicating a confident outlook.
Following the strong Q2 2026 performance and other company developments, several Wall Street analysts reiterated or upgraded their ratings and raised their price targets for Astrana Health. For instance, BTIG Research increased its price target from $50.00 to $65.00 in July 2026, Truist Financial lifted its target from $47.00 to $55.00 in August 2026, and Barclays raised its target from $50.00 to $53.00 in August 2026. Oppenheimer also initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating and a $53.00 price objective in September 2026. The consensus among 10 analysts is a "Moderate Buy" rating, with an average 12-month price target of $49.88, suggesting a notable upside from recent trading prices.
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Astrana Health (ASTH) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Astrana Health reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and raising full-year guidance.
The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), reported on August 6, 2026, which substantially beat analysts' consensus estimates of $0.34 by $0.46. Revenue for the quarter also increased by 49% year-over-year to $972.5 million. Following these results, management raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full fiscal year 2026, signaling confidence in continued operational strength and future performance.
2. Analysts responded with positive rating reaffirmations and increased price targets, indicating a confident outlook.
Following the strong Q2 2026 performance and other company developments, several Wall Street analysts reiterated or upgraded their ratings and raised their price targets for Astrana Health. For instance, BTIG Research increased its price target from $50.00 to $65.00 in July 2026, Truist Financial lifted its target from $47.00 to $55.00 in August 2026, and Barclays raised its target from $50.00 to $53.00 in August 2026. Oppenheimer also initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating and a $53.00 price objective in September 2026. The consensus among 10 analysts is a "Moderate Buy" rating, with an average 12-month price target of $49.88, suggesting a notable upside from recent trading prices.
3. Strategic expansion and new partnerships in value-based care drove positive sentiment.
Astrana Health continued to expand its value-based care model through new agreements and strategic partnerships. In October 2026, the company announced collaborations with Verda Healthcare, Inc. and Alignment Health Plan, aiming to broaden access to trusted local care for seniors in California and other states. Furthermore, during fiscal Q2 2026, Astrana Health expanded its Medicare Advantage footprint, securing new agreements in Hawaii and Texas that added approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives. These initiatives underscore the company's commitment to its "physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare operating system" and its strategy to enhance patient outcomes and deliver greater value in the healthcare system.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in ASTH stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.56 | 36.88 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,526 | 3,844 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.9% | 1.1% | 23.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 57.5 | 44.7 | -22.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 10.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.6% | 24.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.0% change in ASTH stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.14 | 36.88 | 8.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,182 | 3,844 | 20.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 1.1% | 49.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 74.8 | 44.7 | -40.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 8.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 10.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.0% | 17.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.2% change in ASTH stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.21 | 36.88 | 18.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,419 | 3,844 | 58.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 60.8 | 44.7 | -26.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 18.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.6% | 13.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.2% change in ASTH stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 196.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.21 | 36.88 | 18.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,297 | 3,844 | 196.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 1.1% | -70.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 44.7 | 40.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 49 | -5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 18.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.2% | 21.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASTH Return | 302% | -60% | 29% | -18% | -21% | 49% | 102% |
| Peers Return | -28% | -23% | -6% | 11% | 5% | 78% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASTH Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 34% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASTH Max Drawdown | -44% | -63% | -27% | -50% | -48% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -47% | -44% | -42% | -44% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGL, PRVA, ALHC, PNTG, ADUS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Astrana Health's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 60.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ASTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.4% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 1 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1200.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1736 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Astrana Health's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 60.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Astrana Health (ASTH)
Astrana Health (ASTH) is a technology-driven healthcare management company that provides medical care services through a physician-centric approach. It operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model, utilizing its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform. This platform is designed to empower its network of healthcare providers to deliver comprehensive care to patients across the United States.
The company's core offerings include medical care services and extensive care coordination, linking patients, their families, primary care physicians, specialists, and various healthcare facilities such as hospitals and physician groups. Astrana Health maintains a robust physician network comprising primary care physicians, specialist physicians, extenders, and hospitalists to facilitate a seamless and coordinated care experience.
Astrana Health primarily serves patients covered by a range of insurance plans, including private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization (HMO) plans, as well as non-insured individuals. Its business model also involves partnering with physician groups and health plans, aiming to manage and deliver efficient healthcare services within its integrated, value-based framework.
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1. Think of it like Optum Health, but focused on managing diverse physician networks and delivering value-based care through its own technology platform.
2. It's similar to a tech-enabled medical group focused on value-based primary care, like Oak Street Health, but expanded to include specialists and hospitalists for comprehensive care management.
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- Integrated Medical Care Services: Provides comprehensive medical care through an integrated, value-based healthcare model to patients.
- Population Health Management Platform: Leverages a proprietary technology platform to manage the health outcomes of specific patient populations.
- Healthcare Delivery Platform: Offers a technological platform that empowers providers in its network to deliver efficient and effective care.
- Care Coordination Services: Delivers services focused on coordinating care among patients, families, physicians, hospitals, and health plans.
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Major Customers of Astrana Health (ASTH)
Astrana Health primarily serves individual patients. The company provides medical care services and care coordination to patients who are covered by various insurance plans or are uninsured. Based on the provided description, the major categories of customers it serves are:- Patients primarily covered by public insurance, such as Medicare and Medicaid plans.
- Patients primarily covered by private insurance, such as health maintenance organization (HMO) plans.
- Non-insured patients.
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Brandon K. Sim, President & Chief Executive Officer
Brandon Sim leads Astrana Health as its President and Chief Executive Officer, a role he assumed solely in 2024 after serving as Co-CEO since 2021. He joined the company in 2019, holding positions such as Vice President of Engineering, Chief Technology Officer, and Chief Operating Officer. Before his tenure at Astrana Health, Mr. Sim worked as a Quantitative Researcher at Citadel Securities from 2015 to 2019. Notably, he co-founded Theratech, a medical device startup, where he also served as Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Sim is the son of Dr. Kenneth Sim, a Co-Founder and the Executive Chairman of Astrana Health. He holds an M.S. in Computer Science and Engineering and a B.A. in Statistics and Physics from Harvard University.
Chan Basho, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer
Chan Basho serves as the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Astrana Health, overseeing the development and execution of the company's finance, strategy, and operations. He brings 15 years of experience in strategy, finance, and operations within the healthcare sector. Prior to joining Astrana Health, he was the Vice President of Strategy and Corporate Development at Alignment Healthcare since 2018. From 2017 to 2018, Mr. Basho was the Chief Financial Officer at Alsana, a behavioral health company backed by private equity. His experience also includes various roles in strategy and corporate development at HealthCare Partners, a DaVita Medical Group company, from 2014 to 2017, and in corporate finance at DaVita Kidney Care from 2007 to 2014. Mr. Basho earned a bachelor's degree in Bioengineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Albert Young, M.D., M.P.H., SVP, Health Affairs
Dr. Albert Young is the Senior Vice President of Health Affairs at Astrana Health, a position he has held since 2024. He previously served as Chief Administrative Officer starting in 2019 and as Chief Medical Officer from 2006. Dr. Young obtained his medical degree from West Virginia University School of Medicine, completed his residency in internal medicine at Los Angeles County and USC Medical Center, and pursued a fellowship in pulmonary medicine. He also holds a master's degree in public health from UCLA, earned in 1998.
Georgie Sam, Chief Data & Analytics Officer
Georgie Sam is the Chief Data & Analytics Officer for Astrana Health. Before joining Astrana Health, he held the position of Senior Vice President of Data & Technology at Alignment Healthcare. In that role, he was responsible for developing Alignment Healthcare's comprehensive data and analytics ecosystem, encompassing enterprise data strategy, cloud-based platforms, business intelligence, data governance, and modern data architecture. Mr. Sam played a key role in Alignment's growth and its successful initial public offering.
Rita Pew, MBA, Chief People Officer
Rita Pew serves as the Chief People Officer at Astrana Health. Her promotion to this executive role was announced in June 2025, highlighting her importance in the company's leadership team as it scales its AI-enabled healthcare delivery platform.
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Key Risks to Astrana Health (ASTH)
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH), a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, faces several key risks inherent to its operations within the healthcare sector. The most significant risks include recent cybersecurity incidents, ongoing regulatory changes and scrutiny, particularly concerning Medicare, and challenges related to its acquisition strategy and accounting practices.1. Cybersecurity Incidents and Data Breaches
Astrana Health has recently experienced a material cybersecurity incident and data breach at its subsidiary, Astrana Health Management, Inc.. This incident involved "social engineering attempts" where unauthorized individuals, impersonating company personnel, gained access to company systems. The breach potentially compromised "certain private and/or confidential information," which could include sensitive patient, employee, provider, business, financial, or intellectual-property data. This event poses significant operational, reputational, and legal risks, and has led to a securities law investigation into the company.2. Regulatory Scrutiny and Medicare Changes
Operating within the highly regulated healthcare industry, Astrana Health is subject to substantial regulatory oversight. A primary concern is the company's "exposure to 2027 Medicare regulatory changes", given that Medicare accounts for 60% of its revenue. Changes to these regulations could directly impact its revenue streams, profitability, and overall value-based care model. Furthermore, the company is under scrutiny regarding its "acquisition approach, alleged misleading statements and undisclosed risks".3. Accounting Practices and Acquisition-Related Risks
Astrana Health's growth strategy, which includes acquisitions, has drawn scrutiny regarding its accounting practices. A short-seller report raised questions about the company's profitability, suggesting it "depends on what it called 'an unusual stack of management estimates — reserves, PPA marks, ACO settlements, receivables, and adjusted earnings'". This report implies that such "subjectivity is masking a weaker business". Specific concerns have been highlighted regarding the "Prospect Medical acquisition" and a "related-party loan" of $545 million. These issues introduce financial and governance risks that could affect investor confidence and the company's long-term financial stability.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Astrana Health (ASTH) operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States healthcare sector, primarily focused on value-based care models, population health management, and care coordination services.
The main addressable markets for Astrana Health's products and services in the U.S. are:
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U.S. Value-Based Healthcare Service Market: This market is substantial, with estimates placing its size at approximately USD 4.15 trillion in 2024, and it is projected to grow to about USD 8.55 trillion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% from 2024 to 2034. Another source estimates the U.S. value-based healthcare service market at USD 4.01 trillion in 2024, expected to reach USD 6.16 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.41% from 2025 to 2030. A third projection shows the U.S. value-based healthcare market generating an estimated revenue of USD 3,810.0 billion in 2024 and growing at a CAGR of 7.7% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 5,947.5 billion by 2030.
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U.S. Population Health Management (PHM) Market: Reflecting Astrana Health's focus on population health management, this market was estimated at USD 36.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 210.18 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 21.70% from 2025 to 2033. Another report valued the U.S. population health management market at USD 27.52 billion in 2026. The North American PHM market, which includes the U.S., was valued at USD 9.43 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.9%.
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U.S. Care Management Solutions Market / Digital Platforms for Care Coordination Market: Astrana Health provides care coordination services, which fall under this market. The U.S. care management solutions market size was valued at USD 6.63 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.1% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate for the U.S. care management solutions market size was USD 5.04 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach approximately USD 18.13 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 13.66% from 2026 to 2035. The global Digital Platforms for Care Coordination Market, where North America holds the largest share, is projected to grow from USD 39.3 billion in 2025 to USD 251.3 billion by 2035.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Astrana Health (ASTH)
- Expansion of Full-Risk, Value-Based Care Contracts and Membership Growth: Astrana Health is actively transitioning to full-risk arrangements, which now comprise 80% of its Care Partners revenue and approximately 42% of its total member base. This shift is expected to generate recurring, higher-quality revenue streams and enhance patient retention by aligning incentives with improved patient outcomes and cost efficiency.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Integration: The successful integration of acquisitions, such as Prospect Health, is a significant driver of revenue growth and anticipated synergies. Management's focus on realizing operational and financial benefits from these integrations is key to future performance.
- Geographic Expansion: The company is expanding its operations into new markets, including Hawaii and Texas, demonstrating the scalability of its value-based care platform. This geographic expansion is expected to contribute to medium-term growth by increasing its Medicare Advantage footprint.
- Leveraging AI-Enabled Technology and Proprietary Platform: Astrana Health's proprietary, AI-enabled population health management and healthcare delivery platform is crucial for streamlining care and administrative processes. This technology enhances operating leverage, improves efficiency, and supports proactive, preventive care at scale, driving both clinical and economic value.
- Growth within the Care Partners Segment: The Care Partners segment remains the primary engine for Astrana Health's top-line growth. Continued expansion in membership, increased risk lives, and capitation arrangements within this segment are anticipated to be major contributors to future revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Astrana Health (formerly Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc.) announced a share repurchase program on December 15, 2022, authorizing the purchase of up to $50 million of its common stock.
- During the three months ended December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 633,844 shares under its plan.
- As of December 31, 2025, $35.9 million remained available under the share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- As of September 26, 2026, Astrana Health had 51.17 million shares outstanding, which increased by 1.73% in one year.
- Astrana Health Inc. had 56 million shares outstanding in Q2 2026, representing a decrease of 0.6% from the same quarter a year earlier.
- As of March 5, 2026, there were 55,603,598 shares of common stock issued and outstanding, including 6,132,802 treasury shares.
Outbound Investments
- In July 2025, Astrana Health (then Apollo Medical Holdings) acquired Prospect Health from Prospect Medical Holdings for US$708 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Astrana Health Inc. invested $3.9 million in capital expenditures during Q2 2026, primarily for funding long-term assets and infrastructure, an increase of 173.1% from the same quarter a year earlier.
- For the fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures were $10.1 million.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Facilities
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 12.2% | 58.2% | 97.6% | CAH 476% · MCK 367% · COR 185% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 31.1% | 37.7% | 14.8% | HIMS 210% · RDNT 129% · DGX 92% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 34.6% | -3.7% | -3.5% | OSCR 84% · HQY 53% · ELV 6% |
| Health Care Facilities ← | 25 | 12.6% | 15.4% | -12.2% | THC 286% · NHC 227% · EHC 195% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 6.4% | 12.3% | -19.4% | GKOS 430% · UFPT 355% · TMDX 141% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -13.3% | 6.7% | -37.3% | LQDA 968% · KNSA 499% · LLY 475% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 21.4% | 11.8% | -38.8% | LNTH 314% · HAE 68% · MMSI 30% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -9.1% | -10.2% | -70.3% | NTRA 232% · AXGN 227% · MEDP 186% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -26.5% | -33.1% | -81.8% | TRVI 1017% · DNTH 1008% · ELVN 1002% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -27.4% | -55.9% | -82.2% | VEEV -3% · DOCS -55% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,101 |
| Op Inc LTM | 54 |
| FCF LTM | 86 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59 |
| CFO LTM | 108 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 28.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 43.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 3,023 | 1,949 | 1,284 | 1,051 | 710 |
| Care Delivery | 251 | 137 | 118 | 96 | 47 |
| Care Enablement | 247 | 155 | 136 | 120 | 108 |
| Corporate Costs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Intersegment Elimination | -338 | -207 | -152 | -124 | -91 |
| Total | 3,182 | 2,035 | 1,387 | 1,144 | 774 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 155 | 141 | 92 | 85 | 73 |
| Care Enablement | 40 | 18 | 19 | 27 | 37 |
| Intersegment Elimination | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | -3 | -2 | -1 |
| Care Delivery | -2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | -1 |
| Corporate Costs | -114 | -70 | -33 | -19 | -12 |
| Total | 79 | 89 | 85 | 104 | 98 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.88 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/08/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $37.04 | $33.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.4% | 8.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.7% | 66.7% |
| Downside Capture | 64.44 | 68.21 |
| Upside Capture | 98.08 | 77.67 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 11.6% | 11.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 3.32 | -4.16 | -2.34 | 0.06 | -0.70 | 0.35 |
| Down Beta | 0.14 | 1.31 | 1.54 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 149% | 1% | 97% | 38% | 79% | 74% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 30 | 63 | 135 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 89% | 35% | 88% | 40% | 85% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 34 | 62 | 115 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 16.0% | 66.7% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.7% | 16.4% | 1.39 | 14.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 11.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | 1.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 9.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 8.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | -12.6% | 60.9% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 15.3% | 0.37 | 26.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 31.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 16.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 29.9% | 90.5% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.1% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 18.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 21.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 18.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 5.9% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 4.8% | 10.7% | 12.7% |
| 5/7/2026 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 29.5% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.5% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 30.8% | 37.7% | 37.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.1% | -19.1% | -24.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -26.8% | -21.5% | -11.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -20.5% | -29.1% | -32.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -19.3% | -14.5% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 45.1% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 4.8% | 10.7% | 12.7% |
| 5/7/2026 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 29.5% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.5% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 30.8% | 37.7% | 37.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.1% | -19.1% | -24.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -26.8% | -21.5% | -11.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -20.5% | -29.1% | -32.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.5% | -0.7% | -5.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | 9.1% | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| 8/7/2023 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -18.3% |
| 5/8/2023 | -9.0% | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 8.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 14.2% | 9.3% | -12.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.2% | -11.1% | -27.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.2% | -9.5% | -9.8% |
| 2/24/2022 | -9.7% | -22.4% | -14.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 18.8% | 45.1% | 5.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | -13.7% | -19.5% | -14.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | 5.4% | 12.6% | 20.8% |
| 3/10/2021 | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 11/4/2020 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -19.3% | -14.5% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 45.1% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/16/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 1.01 Bil | 1.03 Bil | 3.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 982.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 77.50 Mil | 11.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 67.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 255.00 Mil | 267.50 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 105.00 Mil | 118.75 Mil | 132.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 118.75 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 965.00 Mil | 982.50 Mil | 1.00 Bil | 3.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 3.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 105.00 Mil | 118.75 Mil | 132.50 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 900.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 25.8% | Higher New | Actual: 3.14 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 29.3% | Higher New | Actual: 205.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total revenue | Reported | 3.10 Bil | 3.14 Bil | 3.18 Bil | -1.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | -6.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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