Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (8/28/2026): $38.4 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (8/28/2026): $38.4Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksASTH key risks include [1] execution and profitability challenges in its strategic shift to full-risk contracts, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksASTH key risks include [1] execution and profitability challenges in its strategic shift to full-risk contracts, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Astrana Health (ASTH) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Astrana Health reported robust results for the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, on August 6, 2026. The company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.34. Total revenue increased by 49% year-over-year to $972.5 million. Net income attributable to Astrana Health more than doubled, rising by 109% to $19.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 43% to $68.9 million. Following these strong results, the company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
2. Continued Strategic Shift to Full-Risk Value-Based Care.
Astrana Health continued its successful transition to full-risk value-based care arrangements. In fiscal Q2 2026, these arrangements represented 81% of capitation revenue, an increase from 76% in the prior year. This strategic focus is designed to drive recurring, higher-quality revenue streams and improve patient retention. The company's physician-centric, AI-powered model is well-aligned with the broader healthcare industry shift towards coordinated, efficient, outcomes-based care.
Show more
Astrana Health (ASTH) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
Astrana Health reported robust results for the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, on August 6, 2026. The company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.34. Total revenue increased by 49% year-over-year to $972.5 million. Net income attributable to Astrana Health more than doubled, rising by 109% to $19.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 43% to $68.9 million. Following these strong results, the company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
2. Continued Strategic Shift to Full-Risk Value-Based Care.
Astrana Health continued its successful transition to full-risk value-based care arrangements. In fiscal Q2 2026, these arrangements represented 81% of capitation revenue, an increase from 76% in the prior year. This strategic focus is designed to drive recurring, higher-quality revenue streams and improve patient retention. The company's physician-centric, AI-powered model is well-aligned with the broader healthcare industry shift towards coordinated, efficient, outcomes-based care.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
During the period, several financial analysts upgraded their ratings and significantly increased their price targets for Astrana Health. Notably, Needham & Company LLC raised its price target from $30.00 to $41.00 in May 2026, and BTIG Research increased its price objective from $50.00 to $65.00 in July 2026. TD Cowen also lifted its price target from $45.00 to $50.00 in July 2026, while Truist Financial raised its objective from $47.00 to $55.00 in August 2026. The company currently holds a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $49.43.
4. Impact of Strategic Acquisitions and Enhanced Market Recognition.
The significant year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal Q2 2026 was notably driven by strategic acquisitions, including the Prospect acquisition, which expanded the company's full-risk enrollments. In June 2026, Astrana Health was named to the 2026 Fortune 1000 list for the first time, reflecting its strong fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 56% to $3.18 billion. This recognition and strategic expansion further bolstered investor confidence and market visibility.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.5% change in ASTH stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.14 | 38.41 | 12.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,182 | 3,844 | 20.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 1.1% | 49.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 74.8 | 46.5 | -37.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.5% | 11.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.9% change in ASTH stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 220.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.74 | 38.41 | 68.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,896 | 3,844 | 32.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.3% | 1.1% | 220.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 117.4 | 46.5 | -60.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 68.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 11.3% | 4.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.0% change in ASTH stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.86 | 38.41 | 61.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,251 | 3,844 | 70.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 1.1% | -32.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.0 | 46.5 | 40.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 48 | 49 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 61.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.0% | 15.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.3% | 14.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.9% change in ASTH stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 215.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.63 | 38.41 | 4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,218 | 3,844 | 215.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.7% | 1.1% | -71.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.3 | 46.5 | 21.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 49 | -5.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.4% | 19.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.9% | 21.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASTH Return | 302% | -60% | 29% | -18% | -21% | 56% | 111% |
| Peers Return | -28% | -23% | -6% | 11% | 5% | 93% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASTH Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 34% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 55% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASTH Max Drawdown | -44% | -63% | -27% | -50% | -48% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -47% | -44% | -42% | -44% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGL, PRVA, ALHC, PNTG, ADUS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Astrana Health's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 60.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ASTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.4% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 1 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1200.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1736 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Astrana Health's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 60.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Astrana Health (ASTH)
Astrana Health (symbol: ASTH), formerly Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc., is a physician-centric, technology-powered healthcare company that provides comprehensive medical care services. The company operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model, leveraging a proprietary platform for population health management and healthcare delivery. This approach empowers its network of providers to deliver efficient and high-quality care to patients.
The core of Astrana Health's offerings includes extensive care coordination services. These services are provided to a wide range of stakeholders, including patients, their families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, and health plans. The company also manages a robust network of healthcare professionals, encompassing primary care physicians, specialist physicians, and hospitalists, all integrated into its technology-driven care delivery system.
Astrana Health primarily serves patients covered by various forms of insurance, such as private plans, Medicare, Medicaid, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) plans, alongside non-insured individuals. Its primary market is California, where it delivers its services to patients, providers, and health plans.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies for Astrana Health (ASTH):
- Oak Street Health for a comprehensive range of value-based medical services.
- A smaller, more integrated Optum focused on delivering tech-enabled, value-based care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Medical Care Services: Direct provision of healthcare to patients through its network of primary care physicians, specialists, and hospitalists.
- Care Coordination Services: Services that facilitate seamless and integrated care delivery for patients, families, and various healthcare providers and plans.
- Value-Based Healthcare Delivery Model: An integrated, technology-powered system that leverages a proprietary platform for population health management to empower providers and deliver efficient and effective medical care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Astrana Health (ASTH) primarily sells its services and platform to other companies and organizations within the healthcare sector. Its major customers include:
- Healthcare Providers: This broad category encompasses various medical professionals and facilities that leverage Astrana Health's integrated, value-based healthcare model and proprietary platform. These include primary care physicians, specialist physicians, hospitalists, physician groups, acute care hospitals, and alternative sites of inpatient care. Astrana Health empowers these providers in its network to deliver care to patients.
- Health Plans: Astrana Health offers care coordination services to health plans, collaborating with them to manage patient populations, particularly those covered by private or public insurance such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization (HMO) plans.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Brandon Sim, President and Chief Executive Officer
Brandon Sim was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Astrana Health in January 2024, having previously served as Co-CEO. He joined the organization in 2019 and has held various leadership roles, including Chief Operating Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Vice President of Engineering. Before joining Astrana Health, Mr. Sim was a Quantitative Researcher at Citadel Securities from 2015 to 2019. He co-founded Theratech, a medical device startup, where he served as Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Sim serves on the board of directors for a private healthcare technology company and previously served on the boards of Cardio Diagnostics (NASDAQ:CDIO) and Clinigence Health. He holds an M.S. in Computer Science and Engineering and a B.A. in Statistics and Physics from Harvard University.
Chan Basho, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Corporate Secretary
Chan Basho holds the titles of Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Corporate Secretary at Astrana Health. He was named Chief Operating Officer in addition to his CFO role, effective January 19, 2024.
Kenneth Sim, M.D., Executive Chairman and Co-Founder
Dr. Kenneth Sim is a Co-Founder and the Executive Chairman of Astrana Health (formerly Apollo Medical Holdings). He has served as Chairman of Astrana Health Management (formerly Network Medical Management) since 2013 and has been a member of the Board of Directors since 2006. Dr. Sim also serves as the Chairman of the board of APC. As an entrepreneur, Dr. Sim founded "Healthcare City" in the City of Industry, California, which aimed to centralize outpatient health services, including a surgical center, senior wellness center, laboratory, radiology, and urgent care services. He is a Fellow of the American College of Surgeons.
Thomas S. Lam, M.D., M.P.H., Co-Founder & Vice Chairman
Dr. Thomas Lam is a Co-Founder and the Vice Chairman of Astrana Health (formerly ApolloMed). He has been a member of Astrana Health's Board of Directors since January 2016. Dr. Lam served as Chief Executive Officer of Astrana Health Management (formerly Network Medical Management) since January 2006 and has been a member of its Board of Directors since 2005. From January 2006 to September 2014, he was the Chairman and CEO of APC, and since October 2014, he has served as the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of APC. Dr. Lam received his medical training from New York Medical College and gastroenterology training from Georgetown University.
Dinesh Kumar, M.D., Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Dinesh Kumar joined Astrana Health (then ApolloMed) as Chief Medical Officer, effective January 23, 2024. He brings over 25 years of healthcare experience, having previously served as Chief Medical and Chief Operating Officer at Alignment Healthcare. Prior to that, Dr. Kumar was Senior Vice President of Clinical Transformation at DaVita and Chief Medical Officer of HealthCare Partners within the California market. Dr. Kumar received his medical degree from the University of Madras and completed his residency in internal medicine at Howard University, followed by a fellowship in pulmonary and critical care medicine at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Astrana Health's business include:
- Financial and Regulatory Risks from Value-Based Care Models and Government Programs: Astrana Health operates a value-based healthcare model, with a significant portion of its revenue and membership shifting into full-risk arrangements. This model inherently transfers financial risk from payers to providers, exposing Astrana to potential losses if healthcare costs and patient outcomes are not managed effectively. The company's heavy reliance on government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid for patient reimbursement further compounds this risk, as adverse changes in reimbursement rates, enrollment, or regulatory policies could significantly impact its revenue and financial stability. Furthermore, operating within California's highly regulated healthcare landscape, with its stringent state-specific laws and frequent regulatory changes, adds layers of compliance complexity and potential penalties.
- Material Weakness in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting: Astrana Health has reported an expected material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting related to its 2025 Form 10-K, particularly concerning acquisition accounting. This weakness raises concerns about the reliability of the company's financial statements and could impact investor confidence and its ability to accurately report financial performance.
- Data Security and Patient Privacy Risks: As a technology-powered healthcare company managing a proprietary population health platform, Astrana Health handles vast amounts of protected health information (PHI). The company faces substantial risks related to data breaches, cyberattacks, and non-compliance with complex federal regulations like HIPAA, as well as stricter California-specific privacy laws such as the Confidentiality of Medical Information Act (CMIA) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Failure to adequately protect patient data can lead to significant financial penalties, legal repercussions, and reputational damage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The entry and rapid scaling of large technology companies, such as Amazon and Google, into direct healthcare delivery, particularly through the development or acquisition of integrated, technology-powered, value-based care platforms, represents a clear emerging threat. These entities leverage their extensive capital, advanced artificial intelligence, and data analytics capabilities to build potentially superior or more cost-effective healthcare models and physician networks, directly challenging Astrana Health's core business of providing physician-centric, technology-powered value-based care and care coordination services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Astrana Health (NASDAQ: ASTH), previously known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc., operates as a physician-centric, technology-powered healthcare company, delivering medical care services through an integrated, value-based healthcare model. The company focuses on population health management and care coordination for patients predominantly covered by Medicare, Medicaid, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) plans, primarily in California, while also expanding into other markets.
The addressable markets for Astrana Health's core products and services can be identified as follows:
- Value-Based Healthcare Services Market (U.S.): The U.S. value-based healthcare service market was valued at approximately USD 4.01 trillion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about USD 6.16 trillion by 2030, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.41% from 2025 to 2030. In Southern California, a significant region for Astrana Health, 90% of commercial and Medicare beneficiaries, along with nearly 50% of Medicaid beneficiaries, are already under value-based contracts.
- Population Health Management (PHM) Market (U.S.): The U.S. population health management market size was estimated at USD 36.04 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach USD 210.18 billion by 2033, with a robust CAGR of 21.70% from 2025 to 2033. North America holds the largest share in the global PHM market, accounting for 64.81% of the market.
- Medicare Managed Care Market (California): In California, the Medicare managed care market enrolled approximately 3.2 million individuals in 2023. Overall, about 4,590,500 California residents were enrolled in Medicare in 2023, with 56% of them participating in a Medicare Advantage plan.
- Medi-Cal Managed Care Market (California): California's Medicaid program, known as Medi-Cal, had an enrollment of about 13.2 million individuals in managed care plans in 2023. The total number of people enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP in California was approximately 10,359,500 in 2023.
- Commercial Managed Care Market (California): The total commercial health insurance enrollment in California amounted to 13.9 million individuals in 2023. Astrana Health serves patients covered by various private insurances, including HMO plans, which fall under this broad commercial market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Astrana Health (NASDAQ: ASTH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Integration: The successful integration of the Prospect acquisition, which contributed significantly to 2025 revenue, is anticipated to continue driving growth in 2026. The company projects approximately 24% revenue growth and 29% adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint for 2026, supported by this integration.
- Expansion of Full-Risk Capitation Arrangements: Astrana Health is strategically transitioning towards full-risk contracts, aiming for approximately 80% of its revenue to be from fully capitated arrangements by the end of Q1 2026. This shift is expected to improve unit economics and align incentives around patient outcomes.
- Membership and Provider Network Growth: The company has expanded its network to over 20,000 contracted physicians and manages roughly 1.6 million patients nationwide. Sustained growth in its membership base and provider network, bringing better care to more Americans, is a core pillar of its strategy.
- Geographic Diversification: Astrana Health is expanding its operations beyond its foundational California markets into new geographies. Non-California revenue grew significantly in 2025, and this expansion into new markets is expected to contribute to continued revenue growth.
- Leveraging Technology for Value-Based Care: The company utilizes its proprietary AI-driven technology platform to enhance patient outcomes, reduce healthcare costs, and improve operating efficiencies within its integrated, value-based healthcare model. This technological focus supports its ability to deliver coordinated, cost-effective care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In December 2022, Astrana Health's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program, allowing for the purchase of up to $50 million of its common stock.
- In November 2023, Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. announced an equity buyback for approximately $100 million worth of its common stock from Allied Physicians of California.
- As of December 31, 2025, the Board increased the maximum amount authorized for the existing stock repurchase program from $50 million to $100 million, with $35.9 million remaining available. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the company repurchased approximately 634,000 shares at an average price of $22.23.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2021, ApolloMed announced a strategic alliance and investment in New York-based CAIPA MSO, LLC, acquiring 30% of its post-closing total interests.
- In April 2022, the company completed the acquisition of 100% of Jade Health Care Medical Group, which added approximately 13,000 members to its network.
- In July 2025, Astrana Health announced the closing of the Prospect Health acquisition, which contributed approximately $616.3 million of revenue from its acquisition date during fiscal year 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures amounted to $10.1 million.
- In the third quarter of 2025, Astrana Health invested $2.6 million in capital expenditures, primarily funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Facilities
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 11.4% | 82.6% | 133.3% | CAH 407% · MCK 354% · COR 182% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 19.8% | 45.0% | 3.4% | HIMS 310% · RDNT 142% · DGX 81% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 33.7% | -2.9% | 2.5% | OSCR 114% · HQY 42% · ELV 15% |
| Health Care Facilities ← | 24 | 4.6% | -4.2% | -16.8% | THC 257% · NHC 244% · ENSG 113% |
| Health Care Equipment | 51 | -5.4% | -6.4% | -21.4% | POCI 10975% · UFPT 336% · GKOS 220% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 33.7% | -14.8% | -34.4% | LNTH 291% · HAE 71% · MMSI 25% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | -0.6% | 9.6% | -37.0% | LQDA 2490% · INDV 1235% · ETON 1136% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -1.2% | -31.2% | -72.1% | SNWV 1802% · MEDP 239% · AXGN 208% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -22.7% | -56.6% | -74.4% | SPOK 119% · HSTM -1% · VEEV -15% |
| Biotechnology | 365 | 8.8% | -24.8% | -77.7% | BRTX 102900% · DNTH 1685% · CELZ 1529% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 3,101 |
| Op Inc LTM | 59 |
| FCF LTM | 113 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59 |
| CFO LTM | 120 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 71 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 43.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 3,023 | 1,949 | 1,284 | 1,051 | 710 |
| Care Delivery | 251 | 137 | 118 | 96 | 47 |
| Care Enablement | 247 | 155 | 136 | 120 | 108 |
| Corporate Costs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Intersegment Elimination | -338 | -207 | -152 | -124 | -91 |
| Total | 3,182 | 2,035 | 1,387 | 1,144 | 774 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 155 | 141 | 92 | 85 | 73 |
| Care Enablement | 40 | 18 | 19 | 27 | 37 |
| Intersegment Elimination | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | -3 | -2 | -1 |
| Care Delivery | -2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | -1 |
| Corporate Costs | -114 | -70 | -33 | -19 | -12 |
| Total | 79 | 89 | 85 | 104 | 98 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $38.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.9 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $40.89 | $30.86 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.1% | 24.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.3% | 67.1% |
| Downside Capture | 67.85 | 72.57 |
| Upside Capture | 61.83 | 81.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.44 | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Up Beta | 1.67 | 1.12 | 1.35 | -0.94 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Down Beta | 1.30 | -0.12 | 0.38 | 0.91 | 1.37 | 0.57 |
| Up Capture | -182% | -12% | 8% | 124% | 103% | 76% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 22 | 34 | 70 | 140 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 205% | 24% | -11% | 30% | 78% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 20 | 28 | 55 | 111 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 26.9% | 67.0% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 26.9% | 16.0% | 1.30 | 13.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.6% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 13.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.6% | 28.8% | 1.05 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.3% | 20.3% | 1.55 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 10.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.7% | 43.6% | -0.69 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | -10.6% | 62.0% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.5% | 15.1% | 0.24 | 25.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 18.7% | 0.89 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.6% | 0.44 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 52.7% | 0.39 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | 29.5% | 91.5% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.6% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 18.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.6% | 16.3% | 0.64 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 18.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 5.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 4.8% | 10.7% | |
| 5/7/2026 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 29.5% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.5% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 30.8% | 37.7% | 37.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.1% | -19.1% | -24.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -26.8% | -21.5% | -11.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -20.5% | -29.1% | -32.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -19.3% | -14.5% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 45.1% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 4.8% | 10.7% | |
| 5/7/2026 | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 29.5% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.5% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 30.8% | 37.7% | 37.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.1% | -19.1% | -24.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -26.8% | -21.5% | -11.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -20.5% | -29.1% | -32.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.5% | -0.7% | -5.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | 9.1% | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| 8/7/2023 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -18.3% |
| 5/8/2023 | -9.0% | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 8.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 14.2% | 9.3% | -12.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.2% | -11.1% | -27.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.2% | -9.5% | -9.8% |
| 2/24/2022 | -9.7% | -22.4% | -14.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 18.8% | 45.1% | 5.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | -13.7% | -19.5% | -14.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | 5.4% | 12.6% | 20.8% |
| 3/10/2021 | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 11/4/2020 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 8/7/2020 | 3.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -19.3% | -14.5% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 45.1% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -34.3% | -36.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/16/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | 1.00 Bil | 1.01 Bil | 1.03 Bil | 3.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 982.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 77.50 Mil | 11.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 67.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 255.00 Mil | 267.50 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 105.00 Mil | 118.75 Mil | 132.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 118.75 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Total Revenue | 965.00 Mil | 982.50 Mil | 1.00 Bil | 3.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 65.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 3.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 250.00 Mil | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 105.00 Mil | 118.75 Mil | 132.50 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total revenue | 900.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Total revenue | 3.80 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.10 Bil | 25.8% | Higher New | Actual: 3.14 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 250.00 Mil | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 29.3% | Higher New | Actual: 205.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total revenue | 3.10 Bil | 3.14 Bil | 3.18 Bil | -1.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 200.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | -6.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 28, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.