Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.05 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Astrana Health (ASTH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.05Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.9% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASTH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Astrana Health (ASTH) stock moved by -28% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Astrana Health reported a significant miss in its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS). The company posted diluted EPS of $0.01, which was substantially below the analyst consensus of $0.47, marking a 97.87% shortfall. Although revenue increased by 100% year-over-year and slightly exceeded forecasts, the considerable EPS miss overshadowed this positive top-line performance.
2. The company lowered its full-year 2025 financial guidance. Following the Q3 earnings report, Astrana Health reduced its fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance by 7% and updated its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $3.1 billion to $3.18 billion, down from a previous range of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASTH Return | -1% | 302% | -60% | 29% | -18% | -28% | 24% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 5% | 9% | -1% | -12% | -15% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASTH Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASTH Max Drawdown | -48% | 0% | -63% | -6% | -18% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -4% | -5% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 339.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42300.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1571 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA
In The Past
Astrana Health's stock fell -77.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -77.3% loss requires a 339.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| As ASTH Surges 33% in a Month, NUTX's Story Stands Out | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Why Astrana Health Stock Moved: ASTH Stock Has Lost 69% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ASTH Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Astrana Health (ASTH) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Astrana Health Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -17.4% in 2024 and -23.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Astrana Health (ASTH) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Astrana Health (ASTH) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Astrana Health (ASTH) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Astrana Health (ASTH) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Astrana Health Stock To $33? | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| After ASTH’s 33% Climb in a Month, NUTX Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | August 27th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LZ, ASTH, GCT | Losers: TTD, SEZL, BLND | August 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Astrana Health
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,419 |
| Op Inc LTM | 70 |
| FCF LTM | -20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -32 |
| CFO LTM | 131 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 92 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 36.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 34.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -30.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -25.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -56.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -51.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -36.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -68.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -123.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 1,284 | 1,051 | 710 | 639 | |
| Care Enablement | 136 | 120 | 108 | 36 | |
| Care Delivery | 118 | 96 | 47 | 12 | |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corporate Costs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intersegment Elimination | -152 | -124 | -91 | 0 | |
| Capitation, net | 454 | ||||
| Fee-for-service, net | 15 | ||||
| Management fee income | 35 | ||||
| Other income | 5 | ||||
| Risk pool settlements and incentives | 51 | ||||
| Total | 1,387 | 1,144 | 774 | 687 | 561 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | 92 | 85 | 73 | 63 | |
| Care Enablement | 19 | 27 | 37 | 29 | |
| Care Delivery | 6 | 9 | -1 | -4 | |
| Intersegment Elimination | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Other | -3 | -2 | -1 | -0 | |
| Corporate Costs | -33 | -19 | -12 | -9 | |
| Total | 85 | 104 | 98 | 81 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11052021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |