Tearsheet

Astrana Health (ASTH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.05 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities

Astrana Health (ASTH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.05
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
  
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.9%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.9%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ASTH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Astrana Health (ASTH) stock moved by -28% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Astrana Health reported a significant miss in its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS). The company posted diluted EPS of $0.01, which was substantially below the analyst consensus of $0.47, marking a 97.87% shortfall. Although revenue increased by 100% year-over-year and slightly exceeded forecasts, the considerable EPS miss overshadowed this positive top-line performance.

2. The company lowered its full-year 2025 financial guidance. Following the Q3 earnings report, Astrana Health reduced its fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance by 7% and updated its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $3.1 billion to $3.18 billion, down from a previous range of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ASTH Return-1%302%-60%29%-18%-28%24%
Peers Return13%5%9%-1%-12%-15%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ASTH Win Rate50%75%42%58%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate15%15%15%10%6%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ASTH Max Drawdown-48%0%-63%-6%-18%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-0%-4%-5%-13%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventASTHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-77.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven339.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven74 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-54.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven24 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-99.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42300.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1571 days1480 days

Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA


In The Past

Astrana Health's stock fell -77.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -77.3% loss requires a 339.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Astrana Health (ASTH)

Better Bets than Astrana Health (ASTH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ASTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Astrana Health

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ASTHACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameAstrana .Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Price23.0214.69---4.4414.69
Mkt Cap1.11.3----1.2
Rev LTM2,4193,266---2542,419
Op Inc LTM70444----2470
FCF LTM121-347----20-20
FCF 3Y Avg77-252----32-32
CFO LTM131335---1131
CFO 3Y Avg92308----1892

Growth & Margins

ASTHACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameAstrana .Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Rev Chg LTM52.0%4.6%---6.7%6.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg36.8%9.0%---36.5%36.5%
Rev Chg Q34.7%4.4%---4.2%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.5%1.1%---1.1%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM2.9%13.6%----9.6%2.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.8%16.2%----22.0%5.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-1.0%---3.0%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM5.4%10.3%---0.5%5.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%10.2%----8.9%5.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.0%-10.6%----7.7%-7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.3%-7.8%----14.6%-7.8%

Valuation

ASTHACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameAstrana .Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Cap1.11.3----1.2
P/S0.50.7----0.6
P/EBIT14.88.2----11.5
P/E48.520.9----34.7
P/CFO9.46.7----8.0
Total Yield2.7%4.8%----3.8%
Dividend Yield0.7%0.0%----0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.5%-7.6%-----1.0%
D/E0.41.1----0.7
Net D/E0.11.0----0.6

Returns

ASTHACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameAstrana .Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
1M Rtn-30.2%-31.1%----12.9%-30.2%
3M Rtn-25.0%-37.0%---7.0%-25.0%
6M Rtn-8.1%-35.0%-----21.6%
12M Rtn-46.7%-65.2%-----56.0%
3Y Rtn-18.9%-83.2%-----51.1%
1M Excs Rtn-30.2%-31.0%----12.9%-30.2%
3M Excs Rtn-30.7%-43.2%---0.9%-30.7%
6M Excs Rtn-22.9%-49.7%-----36.3%
12M Excs Rtn-60.3%-77.4%-----68.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.9%-155.4%-----123.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Care Partners1,2841,051710639 
Care Enablement13612010836 
Care Delivery118964712 
Other1100 
Corporate Costs0000 
Intersegment Elimination-152-124-910 
Capitation, net    454
Fee-for-service, net    15
Management fee income    35
Other income    5
Risk pool settlements and incentives    51
Total1,3871,144774687561


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Care Partners92857363 
Care Enablement19273729 
Care Delivery69-1-4 
Intersegment Elimination4421 
Other-3-2-1-0 
Corporate Costs-33-19-12-9 
Total851049881 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,383,376
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202518.6%
Average Daily Volume736,583
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.24
Basic Shares Quantity49,187,885
Short % of Basic Shares4.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024314202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021