Alector (ALEC)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $1.86 | Market Cap: $206.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Alector (ALEC)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $1.86Market Cap: $206.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -68% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -912% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1141%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1143% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -63% Key risksALEC key risks include [1] the recent clinical failure of its lead late-stage drug, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -912% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -58% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1141%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1143% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -63% |
| Key risksALEC key risks include [1] the recent clinical failure of its lead late-stage drug, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alector (ALEC) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Collaboration revenue declined significantly in fiscal Q2 2026. Alector reported its fiscal Q2 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, indicating collaboration revenue of $3.3 million, a decrease from $7.9 million for the same period in fiscal 2025. This 58% year-over-year reduction was primarily attributed to lower revenue recognized from the AL101 Alzheimer's disease program.
2. Persistent unprofitability and valuation concerns despite a new licensing deal. While Alector announced a global licensing agreement with Genentech for its AL050 program on October 5, 2026, which included a $100 million upfront payment and potential for up to $1.17 billion in milestones, the company remains unprofitable and cash-flow negative. As of October 5, 2026, Alector's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 17.46 significantly exceeded its historical median of 8.35, and an intrinsic value model suggested the stock was approximately 307% overvalued, implying that market expectations for future growth may be excessively high given current fundamentals.
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Alector (ALEC) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Collaboration revenue declined significantly in fiscal Q2 2026. Alector reported its fiscal Q2 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, indicating collaboration revenue of $3.3 million, a decrease from $7.9 million for the same period in fiscal 2025. This 58% year-over-year reduction was primarily attributed to lower revenue recognized from the AL101 Alzheimer's disease program.
2. Persistent unprofitability and valuation concerns despite a new licensing deal. While Alector announced a global licensing agreement with Genentech for its AL050 program on October 5, 2026, which included a $100 million upfront payment and potential for up to $1.17 billion in milestones, the company remains unprofitable and cash-flow negative. As of October 5, 2026, Alector's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 17.46 significantly exceeded its historical median of 8.35, and an intrinsic value model suggested the stock was approximately 307% overvalued, implying that market expectations for future growth may be excessively high given current fundamentals.
3. Lingering impact of previous clinical trial failures and partnership termination. The stock continued to face headwinds from earlier clinical setbacks, including the termination of a collaboration with GSK in July 2026. This followed GSK's withdrawal due to two antibody assets failing to show significant clinical benefit, specifically the Phase 3 INFRONT-3 study of latozinemab (AL001) in October 2025 and the discontinuation of the Phase 2 PROGRESS-AD trial of nivisnebart (AL101) in April 2026. These events contributed to a cautious investor sentiment regarding Alector's pipeline success.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.5% change in ALEC stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.01 | 1.84 | -8.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18 | 14 | -24.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.1 | 14.8 | 22.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 111 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -8.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 11.4% | 26.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.4% change in ALEC stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.15 | 1.84 | -14.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21 | 14 | -34.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 11.2 | 14.8 | 31.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 110 | 111 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -14.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.1% | 24.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.8% change in ALEC stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -82.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.96 | 1.84 | -37.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81 | 14 | -82.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.7 | 14.8 | 303.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 111 | -9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -37.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 28.6% | 21.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -71.6% change in ALEC stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -86.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.48 | 1.84 | -71.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 102 | 14 | -86.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.3 | 14.8 | 178.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 83 | 111 | -24.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -71.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -71.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 43.7% | 27.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALEC Return | 36% | -55% | -14% | -76% | -17% | 22% | -87% |
| Peers Return | -35% | -18% | 22% | -29% | 14% | 6% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALEC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 39% | 44% | 36% | 56% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALEC Max Drawdown | -51% | -67% | -62% | -79% | -66% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -44% | -40% | -45% | -36% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DNLI, BIIB, ACAD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alector's stock fell -50.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 102.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alector's stock fell -50.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 102.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alector (ALEC)
Alector, Inc. (ALEC) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and developing therapies for a range of neurodegenerative diseases. Headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the company focuses on addressing conditions that currently have limited treatment options, aiming to bring innovative medicines to patients in need.
The company's pipeline features several key product candidates targeting significant unmet medical needs. Its most advanced program, AL001, is a humanized monoclonal antibody currently in Phase III clinical trials for Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD), Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). Other notable candidates include AL101 (Phase I for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's), AL002 (Phase II for Alzheimer's), and AL003 (Phase I for Alzheimer's). Alector also has AL044 in development, which targets a risk gene for Alzheimer's disease.
Alector's primary market encompasses patients suffering from severe neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, FTD, and ALS. To accelerate its development and commercialization efforts, Alector has established strategic collaboration agreements, most notably with GlaxoSmithKline plc for the development and commercialization of monoclonal antibodies such as AL001 and AL101, allowing it to leverage broader resources and expertise.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Alector:
- Like a startup Biogen, focused on antibody treatments for neurodegenerative diseases.
- Like Amgen or Genentech, but still in the clinical trial phase, developing antibody drugs for conditions like Alzheimer's.
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- AL001: A humanized recombinant monoclonal antibody in Phase III clinical trials for frontotemporal dementia, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
- AL101: A therapy in Phase I clinical trials for neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
- AL002: A product candidate in Phase II clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease.
- AL003: A product candidate in Phase I clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease.
- AL044: A development-stage therapy targeting MS4A4A, a risk gene for Alzheimer's disease.
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Alector (ALEC) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. At this stage, its revenue primarily comes from collaboration agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies for research, development, and potential commercialization of its drug candidates. Therefore, its major "customers" or financial partners are other companies.
- GlaxoSmithKline plc (symbol: GSK)
- Adimab, LLC
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Adimab, LLC
GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK)
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Arnon Rosenthal, Ph.D., Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
Dr. Rosenthal co-founded Alector in 2013 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and a member of its Board of Directors since then. He previously co-founded Annexon Biosciences, Inc., where he served as acting Chief Executive Officer and later as Chairman. Dr. Rosenthal also co-founded Rinat Neuroscience Corporation, which discovered and developed the migraine drug Ajovy and was acquired by Pfizer Inc. in 2006. Before his entrepreneurial ventures, he held various roles at Genentech, Inc., ultimately serving as Staff Scientist, where his team discovered the target for the cancer drug Erivedge. He holds a Ph.D. in biology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Neil Berkley, M.B.A., Chief Financial Officer and Chief Business Officer
Mr. Berkley joined Alector in March 2024 as Chief Business Officer and assumed the role of Interim CFO in June 2025, with his current title listed as Chief Financial Officer and Chief Business Officer. Prior to Alector, he served as Chief Corporate Development Officer at Juvena Therapeutics, Chief Business Officer at AbCellera, and Vice President and Head of Business Development at Halozyme Therapeutics. His career also includes leadership roles at Cadence Pharmaceuticals, Acadia, and GSK. He holds a B.S. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, San Diego, and an M.S. and an M.B.A.
Giacomo Salvadore, M.D., Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Salvadore was appointed Chief Medical Officer effective April 25, 2025, having joined Alector in 2023 as Senior Vice President of Clinical Development. He leads Alector's global clinical development strategy for its late-stage clinical and research portfolios. Dr. Salvadore brings over 15 years of industry experience in leading clinical development for neurology and psychiatry programs.
Hua Long, PhD, DABT, Senior Vice President and Head of Research
Dr. Long leads Alector's research and preclinical organization. In this role, she oversees discovery, nonclinical science, and translational research to advance therapies for neurodegenerative diseases.
Danielle Pasqualone, Ph. D., J.D., General Counsel
Dr. Pasqualone joined Alector in 2019 as the Vice President of Intellectual Property and now serves as General Counsel. She is responsible for overseeing the company's legal function, directing global intellectual property strategy, and providing legal counsel on various transactions, including collaborations.
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The key risks for Alector (ALEC) are primarily related to the inherent challenges of being a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on neurodegenerative diseases.
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: As a clinical-stage company, Alector's success is entirely dependent on its product candidates successfully navigating and demonstrating safety and efficacy in ongoing and future clinical trials (Phase I, II, and III). A significant portion of drug candidates fail at various stages of clinical development, especially in late-stage trials, or fail to receive regulatory approval from health authorities, which would prevent the company from commercializing its therapies.
- High Development Risk for Neurodegenerative Diseases: Alector's pipeline is focused on neurodegenerative diseases such as Frontotemporal Dementia, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. Historically, drug development for these complex neurological conditions has a high rate of failure, presenting significant challenges in demonstrating clinical benefit and safety.
- Reliance on Strategic Collaborations: Alector has strategic collaboration agreements, notably with GlaxoSmithKline plc for the development and commercialization of key monoclonal antibodies like AL001 and AL101. The success of these programs, and potentially the company's financial stability, could be impacted by the ongoing commitment, resources, or strategic direction of its partners, or by the termination of such agreements.
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Addressable Markets for Alector's Main Products
- Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD): The global market for frontotemporal dementia is projected to increase from $3.25 billion in 2025 to $3.53 billion in 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8%. It is expected to reach $4.99 billion by 2030.
- Alzheimer's Disease: The global Alzheimer's disease market is estimated at $12.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $29.4 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 9%.
- Parkinson's Disease: The global Parkinson's disease drugs market size is projected to grow from $7.75 billion in 2025 to $15.77 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 8.22%.
- Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): The global Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis market is estimated to be valued at $835.8 million in 2025 and is projected to reach $1496.9 million by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0%.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Alector (ALEC)
Over the next two to three years, Alector's future revenue growth is anticipated to be driven by the following key factors:
- Advancement and Potential Commercialization of AL101 (Nivisnebart): The progression of AL101, developed in collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), through its ongoing Phase 2 PROGRESS-AD clinical trial for early Alzheimer's disease is a significant driver. Positive results from the interim futility analysis expected in the first half of 2026 and subsequent advancement into later-stage clinical development could trigger substantial milestone payments from GSK and pave the way for future product revenue upon commercialization.
- Development and Clinical Entry of Alector Brain Carrier (ABC) Platform Programs: Alector's proprietary Alector Brain Carrier (ABC) platform, designed to enhance the delivery of therapeutics across the blood-brain barrier, represents a strategic focus for future growth. The planned Investigational New Drug (IND) submissions for lead ABC-enabled candidates, such as AL137 for Alzheimer's disease in late 2026-early 2027 and AL050 for Parkinson's disease in 2027, are expected to generate future milestone payments or lead to new collaboration agreements.
- Milestone Payments from the Strategic Collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK): The existing strategic collaboration agreement with GSK provides a framework for significant potential revenue. This includes up to $1.5 billion in clinical development, regulatory, and commercial launch-related milestone payments for partnered programs. The continued progression of AL101 within this collaboration is crucial for realizing these milestone payments.
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Share Issuance
- In January 2024, Alector completed an underwritten public offering of 10,869,566 shares of its common stock, generating gross proceeds of $75 million.
- In January 2020, Alector completed an upsized underwritten public offering of 8,350,000 shares of common stock at $25.00 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of $208,750,000.
Inbound Investments
- In July 2021, Alector entered a strategic global collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for the development and commercialization of AL001 and AL101. As part of this agreement, Alector received $700 million in upfront payments and is eligible for up to an additional $1.5 billion in potential milestone payments.
- In November 2024, Alector secured a $50 million credit facility from Hercules Capital to boost its financial flexibility and advance its pipeline.
Capital Expenditures
- Alector reported capital expenditures of -$1 (likely referring to $1 million, given the context of other financial figures in millions) in a recent financial summary.
- Research and development expenses for the full year 2025 were $123.1 million, a decrease from $185.9 million in 2024, reflecting a significant portion of capital deployed towards its drug pipeline.
- The primary focus of ongoing capital deployment and R&D is the Alector Brain Carrier (ABC) platform and its lead candidates, AL137 and AL050, targeting Investigational New Drug (IND) submissions in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 17.1% | 54.9% | 108.3% | CAH 490% · MCK 413% · COR 204% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 17.0% | 37.2% | 11.9% | HIMS 253% · RDNT 137% · DGX 80% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 38.6% | -3.3% | 5.8% | OSCR 115% · HQY 45% · ELV 19% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 3.4% | 12.3% | 3.8% | THC 324% · NHC 294% · EHC 147% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -4.4% | 3.3% | -11.4% | UFPT 353% · GKOS 263% · TMDX 169% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -10.5% | 0.5% | -32.8% | LQDA 876% · KNSA 635% · CORT 481% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 14.7% | -7.3% | -40.4% | LNTH 338% · HAE 76% · MMSI 29% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -12.7% | -14.3% | -67.6% | NTRA 253% · MEDP 233% · GH 59% |
| Biotechnology ← | 363 | -26.7% | -27.3% | -82.0% | DNTH 1009% · ELVN 893% · ADMA 871% |
| Health Care Technology | 22 | -33.5% | -62.9% | -83.9% | VEEV 0% · DOCS -56% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 576 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | -54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -62 |
| CFO LTM | 1 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -27 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -452.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -563.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -569.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/07/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -44.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $2.09 | $2.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -12.1% | -8.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 102.1% | 96.0% |
| Downside Capture | 15.41 | 215.07 |
| Upside Capture | 148.13 | 115.68 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 5.2% | 22.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | -0.17 | 0.20 | 1.08 | 1.73 | 1.68 |
| Up Beta | -9.77 | -4.22 | -1.81 | 0.32 | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Down Beta | 0.65 | 3.12 | 1.63 | 2.87 | 2.39 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 55% | 152% | 35% | 50% | 145% | 443% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 26 | 54 | 116 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 376% | -30% | 93% | 128% | 156% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 34 | 66 | 118 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -42.4% | 96.0% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 25.7% | 16.1% | 1.22 | 21.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 12.7% | 0.86 | 22.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.4% | 29.4% | -0.05 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.4% | 20.7% | 1.92 | -13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.7% | 0.09 | 5.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.5% | 43.6% | -0.59 | 15.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -39.4% | 84.2% | -0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.5% | 15.2% | 0.36 | 30.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 19.5% | 0.39 | -2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 18.8% | -0.02 | 28.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.6% | 51.8% | 0.34 | 19.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEC | -20.1% | 84.6% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.3% | 16.7% | 0.55 | 33.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 4.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 15.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/5/2026 | 9.9% | 14.9% | |
| 8/6/2026 | -2.7% | 11.5% | 34.4% |
| 5/7/2026 | -13.9% | -5.7% | -32.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | 9.1% | -3.7% | -0.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.6% | 6.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 47.3% | 68.5% | 89.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 38.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | -2.8% | -17.8% | -26.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 19 | 15 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 8.9% | 23.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -11.5% | -15.9% |
| Max Positive | 47.3% | 68.5% | 89.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.9% | -31.1% | -56.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/5/2026 | 9.9% | 14.9% | |
| 8/6/2026 | -2.7% | 11.5% | 34.4% |
| 5/7/2026 | -13.9% | -5.7% | -32.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | 9.1% | -3.7% | -0.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.6% | 6.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 47.3% | 68.5% | 89.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 38.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | -2.8% | -17.8% | -26.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 4.9% | 11.1% | -56.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.9% | -1.0% | -1.2% |
| 5/8/2024 | 0.2% | 8.9% | -16.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 8.2% | 7.6% | -8.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.1% | -31.1% | 3.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 32.4% | 15.2% | -15.9% |
| 5/4/2023 | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/28/2023 | -2.1% | -16.6% | -28.6% |
| 11/8/2022 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 7.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | 15.3% | 11.7% | -7.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -6.5% | -14.0% | -7.5% |
| 2/24/2022 | 2.9% | -2.6% | -3.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.8% | -9.1% | -20.4% |
| 8/3/2021 | 1.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | 8.0% | 6.9% | 24.4% |
| 2/25/2021 | -7.0% | -14.0% | -16.7% |
| 11/10/2020 | 2.4% | 6.0% | 23.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 19 | 15 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 8.9% | 23.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -11.5% | -15.9% |
| Max Positive | 47.3% | 68.5% | 89.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.9% | -31.1% | -56.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Upfront Payment | Reported | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Potential Milestone Payments | Reported | 1.17 Bil | 1.17 Bil | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | Reported | 2027 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.51 | 3,625 | 9,094 | 265,970 | Form |
| 2 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.67 | 5,165 | 13,767 | 292,245 | Form |
| 3 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.66 | 72,606 | 193,473 | 6,114,421 | Form |
| 4 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.66 | 29,251 | 77,948 | 934,409 | Form |
| 5 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.75 | 656 | 1,804 | 315,714 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.51 | 3,625 | 9,094 | 265,970 | Form |
| 2 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.67 | 5,165 | 13,767 | 292,245 | Form |
| 3 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.66 | 72,606 | 193,473 | 6,114,421 | Form |
| 4 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.66 | 29,251 | 77,948 | 934,409 | Form |
| 5 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 2.75 | 656 | 1,804 | 315,714 | Form |
| 6 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 1.88 | 3,475 | 6,543 | 179,734 | Form |
| 7 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 1.97 | 87,216 | 172,191 | 4,673,575 | Form |
| 8 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 1.97 | 5,709 | 11,271 | 195,319 | Form |
| 9 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 1.97 | 19,360 | 38,221 | 749,999 | Form |
| 10 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 2.65 | 1,820 | 4,823 | 277,309 | Form |
| 11 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.65 | 1,000 | 2,650 | 282,132 | Form |
| 12 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 2.08 | 3,367 | 7,012 | 223,807 | Form |
| 13 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 2.12 | 8,071 | 17,138 | 235,341 | Form |
| 14 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 2.12 | 81,864 | 173,822 | 4,964,649 | Form |
| 15 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 2.12 | 29,649 | 62,954 | 731,817 | Form |
| 16 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 2.50 | 4,079 | 10,198 | 297,258 | Form |
| 17 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 1.21 | 4,753 | 5,751 | 148,808 | Form |
| 18 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 1.12 | 8,056 | 9,019 | 142,999 | Form |
| 19 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 1.12 | 104,347 | 116,827 | 2,709,477 | Form |
| 20 | Kenkare-Mitra, Sara | President and Head of R&D | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 1.12 | 41,687 | 46,673 | 561,650 | Form |
| 21 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | Chief Bus Ofcr & Interim CFO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 1.12 | 37,261 | 41,717 | 419,076 | Form |
| 22 | Wong-Sarad, Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 2.50 | 5,910 | 14,756 | 258,289 | Form |
| 23 | Berkley, Neil Lindsay | Principal Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 2.50 | 15,842 | 39,554 | 865,316 | Form |
| 24 | Kenkare-Mitra, Sara | President and Head of R&D | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 2.50 | 23,638 | 59,019 | 1,356,609 | Form |
| 25 | Rosenthal, Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 2.50 | 51,562 | 128,740 | 5,868,029 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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