ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $27.33 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $27.33Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Key risksACAD key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on its two commercialized products, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Key risksACAD key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on its two commercialized products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACAD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the movement of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) stock during the recent period:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.**
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals announced robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 5, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42, which was 200% higher than forecasts, and revenue reached $278.6 million, an 11% year-over-year increase, also beating estimates. This strong performance was driven by increased sales of both NUPLAZID (up 12%) and DAYBUE (up 11%), leading management to raise full-year guidance and reaffirm its goal of exceeding $1 billion in total revenues for 2025.
**2. FDA Approval of DAYBUE STIX.**
On December 12, 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved DAYBUE STIX (trofinetide) for oral solution, a new powder formulation for the treatment of Rett syndrome. This new formulation offers greater flexibility in administration for patients and caregivers, potentially enhancing adherence and market penetration for the only FDA-approved treatment for Rett syndrome. The availability of DAYBUE STIX is expected to begin on a limited basis in the first quarter of 2026, with a broader rollout in the second quarter.
**3. Positive Analyst Price Target Revision by H.C. Wainwright.**
Following the positive developments, particularly the FDA approval of DAYBUE STIX, H.C. Wainwright increased its price target for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals to $37.00 from $32.00 on December 16, 2025, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The firm specifically highlighted DAYBUE STIX as a "key upgrade" and also raised its FY2028 earnings estimates for the company.
**4. Nuplazid Patent Victory.**
Acadia secured a significant intellectual property victory concerning its drug NUPLAZID, which extends its market exclusivity from 2030 to 2038. This extended patent protection provides long-term revenue stability for one of the company's key commercial products, safeguarding its position against generic competition for several additional years.
**5. Setback in Prader-Willi Syndrome Clinical Trial.**
Despite other positive news, the company experienced a setback with the Phase 3 study of ACP-101 in Prader-Willi Syndrome, which was noted as a failure by analysts in December 2025. While ACADIA's pipeline includes several other promising programs, this clinical trial outcome likely tempered some of the positive sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACAD Return | 25% | -56% | -32% | 97% | -41% | 45% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 141% | -42% | 28% | -24% | -21% | -2% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACAD Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 46% | 58% | 44% | 46% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACAD Max Drawdown | -26% | -70% | -44% | 0% | -54% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -50% | -42% | -45% | -38% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NBIX, AXSM, DNLI, BTAI. See ACAD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACAD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 322.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2080.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,558 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ARWR, ACT, ALKS, OGN, LLY
In The Past
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -76.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -76.3% loss requires a 322.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 561 |
| Op Inc LTM | -50 |
| FCF LTM | -58 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -103 |
| CFO LTM | -58 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -103 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 151.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| P/EBIT | -0.5 |
| P/E | -0.4 |
| P/CFO | -0.5 |
| Total Yield | -3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.8% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA217026 | DAYBUE | trofinetide | solution | 3102023 | 21.4% | 29.8% | 15.1% | -13.8% | 33.3% |
| NDA210793 | NUPLAZID | pimavanserin tartrate | capsule | 6282018 | 44.7% | 2.5% | 77.4% | 218.0% | 80.2% |
| NDA207318 | NUPLAZID | pimavanserin tartrate | tablet | 4292016 | 14.7% | -30.1% | 6.3% | -49.6% | -15.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.0% | 8.1% | 19.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | 14.3% | 15.9% | 48.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.8% | -4.8% | -9.5% |
| 11/6/2024 | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | -19.5% | -16.6% | -14.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -11.2% | -11.7% | -13.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | -9.9% | -9.7% | -31.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 9.7% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -4.6% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.3% | 15.9% | 48.4% |
| Max Negative | -19.5% | -16.6% | -46.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daly James M | 11122025 | Sell | 22.37 | 30,000 | 670,983 | 90,381 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |