Alector (ALEC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.12 | Market Cap: $114.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Alector (ALEC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.12Market Cap: $114.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -124 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -179% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 218% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -124 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -179% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 218% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALEC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Alector (ALEC) experienced a significant decline of approximately 51.5% in its stock price during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025, primarily driven by critical setbacks in its clinical pipeline and subsequent corporate restructuring.
1. Failure of Latozinemab's Phase 3 Clinical Trial: The most significant factor contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement that latozinemab (AL001), Alector's most advanced investigational candidate for frontotemporal dementia with a progranulin gene mutation (FTD-GRN), failed to meet its primary clinical endpoint in the pivotal INFRONT-3 Phase 3 study. The trial did not demonstrate a slowing of disease progression as measured by the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR®-SB) scale. This news alone caused Alector's shares to fall by approximately 50% in after-hours trading and a 62.5% plunge within a month.
2. Discontinuation of the Latozinemab Program: Following the disappointing Phase 3 results, Alector announced the discontinuation of the latozinemab program, including the open-label extension and continuation studies. This decision removed a key near-term catalyst and significantly impacted the company's core pipeline and investment narrative.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALEC Return | -12% | 36% | -55% | -14% | -76% | -40% | -93% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 10% | -34% | 7% | -4% | 15% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALEC Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 42% | 27% | 46% | 37% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALEC Max Drawdown | -45% | -2% | -67% | -59% | -78% | -52% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -23% | -47% | -31% | -29% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, AIXC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 947.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 148 days |
Compare to PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, AIXC
In The Past
Alector's stock fell -90.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/7/2021. A -90.5% loss requires a 947.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alector
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 2.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 113 |
| Op Inc LTM | -12 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -22.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -108.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -70.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -71.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | -0.1 |
| P/E | -0.8 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | -11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -25.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -37.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -76.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -147.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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