Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -124 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -179%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 218%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 107%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Neurodegenerative Disease Therapeutics, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -124 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -179%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 218%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -40%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 107%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALEC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Alector (ALEC) experienced a significant decline of approximately 51.5% in its stock price during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025, primarily driven by critical setbacks in its clinical pipeline and subsequent corporate restructuring.

1. Failure of Latozinemab's Phase 3 Clinical Trial: The most significant factor contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement that latozinemab (AL001), Alector's most advanced investigational candidate for frontotemporal dementia with a progranulin gene mutation (FTD-GRN), failed to meet its primary clinical endpoint in the pivotal INFRONT-3 Phase 3 study. The trial did not demonstrate a slowing of disease progression as measured by the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR®-SB) scale. This news alone caused Alector's shares to fall by approximately 50% in after-hours trading and a 62.5% plunge within a month.

2. Discontinuation of the Latozinemab Program: Following the disappointing Phase 3 results, Alector announced the discontinuation of the latozinemab program, including the open-label extension and continuation studies. This decision removed a key near-term catalyst and significantly impacted the company's core pipeline and investment narrative.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALEC Return-12%36%-55%-14%-76%-40%-93%
Peers Return42%10%-34%7%-4%15%22%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALEC Win Rate42%50%33%50%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate40%42%27%46%37%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALEC Max Drawdown-45%-2%-67%-59%-78%-52% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-23%-47%-31%-29%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, AIXC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALECS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven947.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven275.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days148 days

Compare to PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, AIXC


In The Past

Alector's stock fell -90.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/7/2021. A -90.5% loss requires a 947.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alector (ALEC)

Better Bets than Alector (ALEC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alector

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALECPTGXANIKCHRSACSBAIXCMedian
NameAlector Protagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis AIxCrypto 
Mkt Price1.1486.079.471.22-2.542.54
Mkt Cap0.15.50.10.1--0.1
Rev LTM69209113278-0113
Op Inc LTM-12419-12-93--5-12
FCF LTM-198641-90--6-6
FCF 3Y Avg-20358-4-138--10-10
CFO LTM-197658-90--6-6
CFO 3Y Avg-202594-138--10-10

Growth & Margins

ALECPTGXANIKCHRSACSBAIXCMedian
NameAlector Protagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis AIxCrypto 
Rev Chg LTM12.3%-35.4%30.6%152.1%--21.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-17.2%--6.2%30.9%---6.2%
Rev Chg Q-78.8%0.8%-5.9%91.2%---2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-14.9%0.0%-1.5%2.0%---0.8%
Op Mgn LTM-179.1%9.1%-11.0%-33.4%---22.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-215.4%-2.1%-108.0%---108.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-13.3%-2.4%-2.9%1.6%---2.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-285.8%31.3%7.2%-32.5%---12.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-279.7%-3.9%-70.9%---70.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-286.2%30.5%0.6%-32.5%---15.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-281.6%--3.4%-71.0%---71.0%

Valuation

ALECPTGXANIKCHRSACSBAIXCMedian
NameAlector Protagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis AIxCrypto 
Mkt Cap0.15.50.10.1--0.1
P/S4.420.21.20.7--2.8
P/EBIT-2.5222.9-10.92.2---0.1
P/E-2.892.3-4.11.2---0.8
P/CFO-1.564.716.7-2.1--7.6
Total Yield-35.5%1.1%-24.4%81.3%---11.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-49.6%-0.8%-1.3%-56.9%---25.5%
D/E0.10.00.20.2--0.2
Net D/E-0.8-0.1-0.2-0.8---0.5

Returns

ALECPTGXANIKCHRSACSBAIXCMedian
NameAlector Protagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis AIxCrypto 
1M Rtn-20.8%13.3%-3.6%-23.8%---12.2%
3M Rtn-59.1%48.1%5.1%-3.2%--1.0%
6M Rtn-26.5%67.0%-18.7%53.1%--17.2%
12M Rtn-54.8%108.7%-45.4%-28.7%---37.0%
3Y Rtn-87.5%966.5%-70.0%-82.4%---76.2%
1M Excs Rtn-20.8%13.4%-3.5%-23.7%---12.2%
3M Excs Rtn-64.9%39.1%-1.2%-12.2%---6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-41.2%52.3%-33.4%38.4%--2.5%
12M Excs Rtn-69.5%83.0%-60.1%-13.5%---36.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-157.6%996.6%-140.6%-153.9%---147.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment97    
Collaboration revenue 1342072121
Total971342072121


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,424,705
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.7%
Average Daily Volume2,018,955
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.69
Basic Shares Quantity102,597,601
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021