Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.05
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -548 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
3   Key risks
DNLI key risks include [1] significant regulatory delays for its therapies, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.05
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -548 Mil
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
7 Key risks
DNLI key risks include [1] significant regulatory delays for its therapies, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DNLI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. FDA Accepts BLA for Tividenofusp Alfa for Priority Review (August 11, 2025)**

Denali Therapeutics announced in July 2025 that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for tividenofusp alfa for priority review, with a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target action date of January 5, 2026. This news, reported on August 11, 2025, was a significant positive milestone for the company's lead candidate for Hunter syndrome, indicating progress towards potential market approval.

**2. FDA Extends Review Period for Tividenofusp Alfa BLA (October 13-14, 2025)**

The FDA extended the review period for the BLA for tividenofusp alfa, pushing the decision date for its Hunter syndrome treatment to April 2026. This extension, announced in mid-October 2025, typically signals a delay in potential approval and commercialization, which can be perceived negatively by the market and lead to downward pressure on the stock.

**3. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Reported (November 6, 2025)**

Denali Therapeutics reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.74), which beat analysts' consensus estimates by $0.02. While revenue remained essentially flat year-over-year, beating EPS estimates can sometimes provide a modest positive sentiment for investors.

**4. $275 Million Royalty Funding Agreement with Royalty Pharma (December 4, 2025)**

Denali Therapeutics and Royalty Pharma announced a $275 million royalty funding agreement. This deal provides Denali with significant capital, which can be seen as a positive development for its financial position and ongoing research and development efforts, potentially boosting investor confidence.

**5. Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants (December 10, 2025)**

Denali Therapeutics announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering, which included 9,142,857 shares of common stock and 2,285,714 pre-funded warrants. The company expected to receive approximately $200 million in gross proceeds from this offering. This event led to Denali shares gapping down pre-market by approximately 7.8% on December 10, 2025, as public offerings often cause stock dilution and immediate downward price adjustments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DNLI Return381%-47%-38%-23%-5%-18%-4%
Peers Return-4%-6%27%2%-15%37%37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DNLI Win Rate67%42%42%33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate47%48%58%47%35%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DNLI Max Drawdown-18%-49%-53%-42%-30%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-20%-17%-24%-31%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, NBIX, IONS, BMRN, ALNY. See DNLI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDNLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven417.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven77 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven99.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days120 days

Compare to PTGX, CHRS, ANIK, ACSB, ALPS


In The Past

Denali Therapeutics's stock fell -80.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -80.7% loss requires a 417.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Denali Therapeutics (DNLI)

Better Bets than Denali Therapeutics (DNLI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DNLI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Denali Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DNLIBIIBNBIXIONSBMRNALNYMedian
NameDenali T.Biogen Neurocri.Ionis Ph.BioMarin.Alnylam . 
Mkt Price16.85174.80145.0079.5761.15400.23112.28
Mkt Cap2.925.614.412.711.752.613.6
Rev LTM010,0662,6839673,0943,2102,888
Op Inc LTM-5482,492554-278615265409
FCF LTM-4122,262593-309826221407
FCF 3Y Avg-3781,686473-42038657221
CFO LTM-3982,454637-247914266451
CFO 3Y Avg-3641,980508-380489108299

Growth & Margins

DNLIBIIBNBIXIONSBMRNALNYMedian
NameDenali T.Biogen Neurocri.Ionis Ph.BioMarin.Alnylam . 
Rev Chg LTM-4.8%19.6%20.4%12.4%53.2%19.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--0.9%24.6%7.1%15.5%51.4%15.5%
Rev Chg Q-2.8%27.8%17.1%4.1%149.3%17.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%6.9%2.4%1.0%30.4%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM-24.8%20.6%-28.8%19.9%8.2%19.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.5%22.1%-55.1%13.5%-7.1%13.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%0.8%-0.5%-5.4%15.6%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.4%23.7%-25.5%29.5%8.3%23.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-20.0%22.6%-52.4%16.9%3.7%16.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-22.5%22.1%-32.0%26.7%6.9%22.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.0%21.1%-57.4%13.0%1.3%13.0%

Valuation

DNLIBIIBNBIXIONSBMRNALNYMedian
NameDenali T.Biogen Neurocri.Ionis Ph.BioMarin.Alnylam . 
Mkt Cap2.925.614.412.711.752.613.6
P/S-2.55.413.13.816.45.4
P/EBIT-5.311.824.7-73.017.0403.714.4
P/E-5.815.933.7-49.622.61,207.619.2
P/CFO-7.310.422.6-51.512.8197.911.6
Total Yield-17.2%6.3%3.0%-2.0%4.4%0.1%1.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-12.1%6.7%3.8%-6.0%3.5%0.0%1.7%
D/E0.00.30.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.30.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1

Returns

DNLIBIIBNBIXIONSBMRNALNYMedian
NameDenali T.Biogen Neurocri.Ionis Ph.BioMarin.Alnylam . 
1M Rtn-1.8%3.9%4.3%8.8%16.5%-10.2%4.1%
3M Rtn32.2%22.7%-0.2%30.4%12.5%-11.8%17.6%
6M Rtn21.3%37.6%14.6%112.7%11.2%29.2%25.3%
12M Rtn-21.4%19.3%7.1%123.3%-6.9%63.1%13.2%
3Y Rtn-40.4%-39.1%20.5%105.0%-41.6%65.9%-9.3%
1M Excs Rtn-3.3%1.2%2.1%4.6%13.4%-16.0%1.7%
3M Excs Rtn24.4%22.2%-3.2%27.6%11.3%-14.9%16.7%
6M Excs Rtn10.3%26.7%1.8%97.8%-0.4%14.4%12.3%
12M Excs Rtn-40.4%3.1%-6.9%98.2%-21.9%49.4%-1.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-116.3%-110.6%-49.5%36.7%-114.6%0.0%-80.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Therapeutics331    
Alzheimer's Disease Services 3000
Antibody Transport Vehicle (ATV):Triggering receptors expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) 05  
Antibody Transport Vehicle(ATV): Abeta Program License 0   
Central Nervous System (CNS) Program License 40   
Option Research Services 341 
Peripheral program license 1015 10
Protein Transport Vehicle (PTV):Progranulin (PGRN) Collaboration Agreement 05  
Takeda Collaboration Agreement Services 5220276
Leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) Program License   307 
Sanofi Collaboration Agreement: Retained Activities   110
Total3311084933627


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Therapeutics1,154    
Total1,154    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,977,218
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.4%
Average Daily Volume1,291,586
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.05
Basic Shares Quantity172,421,492
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20254.2%19.0%36.4%
8/11/2025-5.0%6.5%5.2%
2/27/2025-11.0%-12.5%-20.5%
11/6/20240.2%0.3%-15.8%
8/1/2024-4.3%-11.0%0.1%
5/7/202412.2%17.2%26.5%
2/27/202438.2%22.3%17.7%
11/7/2023-4.9%-9.9%-11.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131010
# Negative81111
Median Positive4.0%11.8%12.9%
Median Negative-5.0%-6.8%-14.9%
Max Positive38.2%33.8%37.8%
Max Negative-15.1%-18.8%-22.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021