Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $10.35 | Market Cap: $614.6 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $10.35Market Cap: $614.6 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 5.3% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 119% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.9% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksZVRA key risks include [1] potential clinical or regulatory failure of its key pipeline candidates like KP1077 and Celiprolol, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -36% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 119% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.9% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Key risksZVRA key risks include [1] potential clinical or regulatory failure of its key pipeline candidates like KP1077 and Celiprolol, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Negative European Regulatory Opinion for Arimoclomol (MIPLYFFA) in Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC).
On July 24, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics announced a negative opinion from the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) regarding its Marketing Authorisation Application for arimoclomol (MIPLYFFA) for Niemann-Pick disease type C. This significant regulatory setback led to an immediate approximate 24% decline in ZVRA's share price on the day the news broke, as the market reacted to the potential loss or delay of a key revenue stream from the European market for its lead product.
2. Downward Revisions of Analyst Price Targets.
Following the negative EMA opinion for arimoclomol, several financial analysts revised their price targets downward for ZVRA, reflecting a reassessment of the company's future revenue potential and overall valuation. For instance, on July 27, 2026, BTIG Research reduced its price target from $27.00 to $24.00, and Canaccord Genuity Group lowered its price objective from $29.00 to $20.00. These adjustments contributed to the sustained negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock throughout the period.
Show more
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Negative European Regulatory Opinion for Arimoclomol (MIPLYFFA) in Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC).
On July 24, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics announced a negative opinion from the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) regarding its Marketing Authorisation Application for arimoclomol (MIPLYFFA) for Niemann-Pick disease type C. This significant regulatory setback led to an immediate approximate 24% decline in ZVRA's share price on the day the news broke, as the market reacted to the potential loss or delay of a key revenue stream from the European market for its lead product.
2. Downward Revisions of Analyst Price Targets.
Following the negative EMA opinion for arimoclomol, several financial analysts revised their price targets downward for ZVRA, reflecting a reassessment of the company's future revenue potential and overall valuation. For instance, on July 27, 2026, BTIG Research reduced its price target from $27.00 to $24.00, and Canaccord Genuity Group lowered its price objective from $29.00 to $20.00. These adjustments contributed to the sustained negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock throughout the period.
3. Increased Regulatory Uncertainty and Impact on Long-Term Growth Expectations.
The unexpected negative opinion from the EMA, despite Zevra's plans to request a re-examination, heightened regulatory uncertainty surrounding the company's commercial prospects in Europe. This setback likely contributed to investor concerns about the overall risk profile of Zevra's pipeline and its ability to successfully navigate future regulatory pathways, thereby impacting long-term growth expectations and contributing to the stock's approximate 30% loss since the end of fiscal Q2 2026.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.1% change in ZVRA stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.34 | 10.31 | -28.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 122 | 136 | 11.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 101.6% | 42.8% | -57.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.7 | 10.5 | 55.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 58 | 59 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | -28.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | 9.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.3% | 21.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.6% change in ZVRA stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.32 | 10.31 | 10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 106 | 136 | 27.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 78.2% | 42.8% | -45.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.3 | 10.5 | 65.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 59 | -4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | 10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.1% | 21.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.4% change in ZVRA stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 904.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.51 | 10.31 | 8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62 | 136 | 119.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 42.8% | 904.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 197.0 | 10.5 | -94.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 59 | -7.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | 8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 30.8% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 113.9% change in ZVRA stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 722.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.82 | 10.31 | 113.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17 | 136 | 722.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.9 | 4.5 | -54.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 59 | -42.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 113.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | 113.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 46.2% | 14.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ZVRA Return | 4128% | -47% | 43% | 27% | 7% | 12% | 4781% |
| Peers Return | -43% | -14% | -31% | 66% | 16% | -3% | -37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ZVRA Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 48% | 35% | 48% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ZVRA Max Drawdown | -51% | -57% | -34% | -40% | -43% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -51% | -57% | -41% | -65% | -48% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RARE, SRPT, AGIO, STOK, QURE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ZVRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 926 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 743 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Zevra Therapeutics's stock fell -15.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ZVRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 926 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 743 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Zevra Therapeutics's stock fell -15.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA)
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) is a specialty pharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and developing proprietary prodrugs. Utilizing its unique Ligand Activated Therapy technology, Zevra aims to create improved versions of existing FDA-approved drugs or develop prodrugs of existing compounds for new disease indications, primarily focusing on central nervous system (CNS) conditions.
The company's product portfolio includes two FDA-approved medications: AZSTARYS, a once-daily treatment for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in patients aged six years and older, and APADAZ, an immediate-release combination product for pain relief containing a prodrug of hydrocodone. Zevra also maintains an active pipeline of candidates, including KP1077, currently in Phase II clinical trials for idiopathic hypersomnia (IH) and narcolepsy, and KP879, a Phase I candidate for stimulant use disorder.
Zevra Therapeutics primarily serves the pharmaceutical market with a focus on high-need therapeutic areas. Its main customers are patients suffering from conditions such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, stimulant use disorder, and various CNS rare diseases, including idiopathic hypersomnia and narcolepsy. By developing innovative prodrugs, Zevra aims to offer improved treatment options for these significant medical needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Zevra Therapeutics:
- Zevra Therapeutics is like the Dolby Labs of pharmaceuticals, specializing in a unique 'prodrug' technology that enhances existing medications to make them safer or more effective.
- Zevra Therapeutics is like the AMG (Mercedes-AMG) for pharmaceuticals, taking existing, proven drugs and re-engineering them with proprietary 'prodrug' technology to create enhanced, specialized versions with improved profiles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- KP1077: A prodrug of d-methylphenidate in Phase II clinical trials for idiopathic hypersomnia (IH) and narcolepsy.
- KP879: A prodrug product candidate in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of stimulant use disorder.
- AZSTARYS: An FDA-approved, once-daily treatment for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in patients aged six years and older.
- APADAZ: An immediate-release combination product containing benzhydrocodone (a prodrug of hydrocodone) and acetaminophen.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers are entities with whom it enters into collaboration and license agreements for its developed pharmaceutical products.
- KVK-Tech, Inc.
- Commave Therapeutics SA
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
For Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA), the addressable markets for its main products are as follows:
- KP1077 (Idiopathic Hypersomnia): The global idiopathic hypersomnia treatment market is expected to grow from USD 1.19 billion in 2024 to USD 3.19 billion by 2035. Another estimate places the global market at USD 3.6 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 5.2 billion by 2035. North America is identified as the largest market, accounting for approximately 45% of the global share.
- KP1077 (Narcolepsy): The global narcolepsy therapeutics market size is valued at USD 4.12 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 8.04 billion by 2034. North America contributed more than 38% of the revenue share in 2024.
- KP879 (Stimulant Use Disorder): The global substance abuse treatment market size is calculated at USD 15.61 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 36.83 billion by 2034. This broader market is cited because there are currently no FDA-approved medications specifically for stimulant use disorder.
- AZSTARYS (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder - ADHD): The global attention deficit hyperactivity disorder market size was valued at USD 15.8 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of over 5.1% from 2024 to 2032. The U.S. attention deficit hyperactivity disorder market alone was estimated at USD 10.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13.88 billion by 2033.
- APADAZ: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Zevra Therapeutics' common shares outstanding increased from 53.67 million at the end of fiscal year 2024 to 56.30 million as of March 2026, indicating share issuances during this period.
Inbound Investments
- Zevra Therapeutics issued long-term debt totaling $58.99 million in fiscal year 2024, $42.43 million in fiscal year 2023, and $12.8 million in fiscal year 2022.
- The company announced a plan to sell a Priority-Review Voucher for $150 million in February 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2022, Zevra Therapeutics, then known as KemPharm, acquired arimoclomol from Orphazyme A/S as part of its strategy to focus on rare diseases.
- The company made payments for business acquisitions of $30.4 million in fiscal year 2023 and $14.09 million in fiscal year 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Zevra Therapeutics' capital expenditures were $0.31 million for the trailing twelve months ending June 2025, and $0.3 million in fiscal year 2023, with no capital expenditures reported in fiscal year 2024.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 8.6% | 52.6% | 97.9% | CAH 468% · MCK 380% · COR 183% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 40.1% | 49.1% | 16.2% | HIMS 271% · RDNT 137% · DGX 86% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 1.3% | 24.8% | 0.5% | THC 274% · NHC 254% · EHC 152% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 26.0% | -1.0% | -4.3% | OSCR 78% · HQY 54% · ELV 3% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -3.3% | 13.8% | -18.1% | UFPT 358% · GKOS 297% · PLSE 160% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -16.2% | 9.8% | -32.5% | LQDA 1113% · KNSA 770% · LLY 432% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 19.3% | 1.8% | -38.4% | LNTH 337% · HAE 76% · MMSI 36% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -7.5% | 8.2% | -65.2% | NTRA 262% · AXGN 226% · MEDP 215% |
| Biotechnology ← | 365 | -22.5% | -17.6% | -80.0% | DNTH 1140% · ELVN 1127% · TRVI 1107% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -30.9% | -55.8% | -82.1% | VEEV 1% · DOCS -51% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Zevra Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can Zevra Therapeutics Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 117 |
| Op Inc LTM | -207 |
| FCF LTM | -171 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -227 |
| CFO LTM | -169 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -171 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 53.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -270.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -321.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -217.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -238.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -232.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -240.8% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA208653 | APADAZ | acetaminophen | tablet | 2232018 | 5.8% | -21.7% | -64.2% | -94.2% | 71.8% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA208653 | APADAZ | acetaminophen | tablet | 2232018 | 5.8% | -21.7% | -64.2% | -94.2% | 71.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development, manufacturing, commercialization and sale of innovative medicines and | 106 | 24 | 27 | 10 | 29 |
| Total | 106 | 24 | 27 | 10 | 29 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development, manufacturing, commercialization and sale of innovative medicines and | 83 | -106 | -46 |
| Total | 83 | -106 | -46 |
| $ Mil | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development, manufacturing, commercialization and sale of innovative medicines and | 27 | 52 | 85 |
| Total | 27 | 52 | 85 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/16/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.24 | $10.73 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.3% | -3.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.6% | 60.3% |
| Downside Capture | 121.34 | 99.70 |
| Upside Capture | 131.25 | 76.76 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 24.6% | 20.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.34 | 1.02 | 0.21 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | 0.53 | 1.86 | 3.25 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 0.85 |
| Down Beta | -2.78 | 0.57 | -1.13 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | 42% | 124% | -97% | 56% | 55% | 64% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 32 | 68 | 122 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 118% | 3% | 33% | 44% | 68% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 32 | 58 | 128 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZVRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | -7.0% | 60.3% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.5% | 16.3% | 1.15 | 17.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.72 | 19.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.8% | 28.3% | 0.05 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.4% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.9% | -0.05 | 5.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.4% | 43.4% | -0.68 | 19.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZVRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | -6.0% | 59.8% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.3% | 15.2% | 0.34 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 27.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.9% | 0.74 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.6% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 18.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 20.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ZVRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZVRA | -23.9% | 75.8% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.7% | 16.7% | 0.57 | 16.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 20.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 9.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 14.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 19.1% |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.2% | -1.2% | -5.7% |
| 3/9/2026 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.7% | -6.7% | -12.8% |
| 8/12/2025 | -19.8% | -23.4% | -32.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | 3.4% | 9.4% | 19.1% |
| 3/11/2025 | -1.9% | -1.2% | -15.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.1% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -9.1% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 21.3% | 29.4% | 69.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -23.4% | -32.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 19.1% |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.2% | -1.2% | -5.7% |
| 3/9/2026 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.7% | -6.7% | -12.8% |
| 8/12/2025 | -19.8% | -23.4% | -32.4% |
| 5/13/2025 | 3.4% | 9.4% | 19.1% |
| 3/11/2025 | -1.9% | -1.2% | -15.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.1% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
| 8/13/2024 | 3.1% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.3% | -7.2% | -8.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -3.5% | -9.2% | 8.6% |
| 8/14/2023 | 3.8% | -4.2% | 3.7% |
| 5/15/2023 | 7.1% | 29.4% | 33.0% |
| 3/7/2023 | -19.4% | -17.0% | 1.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | -14.0% | -18.1% | -15.5% |
| 8/11/2022 | -1.1% | -9.1% | -1.1% |
| 5/12/2022 | -3.3% | 20.5% | 1.9% |
| 1/19/2022 | -8.5% | -16.4% | -26.6% |
| 11/10/2021 | 2.9% | -8.2% | -7.3% |
| 8/12/2021 | -10.7% | -12.7% | -11.9% |
| 5/13/2021 | 6.9% | 17.3% | 69.0% |
| 3/11/2021 | -5.9% | 8.6% | -12.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -9.1% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 21.3% | 29.4% | 69.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -23.4% | -32.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/14/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/14/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McFarlane, Neil F | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 11.25 | 20,000 | 224,948 | 4,692,696 | Form |
| 2 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 11.13 | 42,666 | 474,774 | 418,057 | Form |
| 3 | Watton, Corey Michael | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 11.25 | 12,300 | 138,377 | 20,250 | Form | |
| 4 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 12.68 | 34,557 | 438,304 | 1,017,661 | Form |
| 5 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 11.30 | 1,794 | 20,272 | 543,812 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McFarlane, Neil F | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 11.25 | 20,000 | 224,948 | 4,692,696 | Form |
| 2 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 11.13 | 42,666 | 474,774 | 418,057 | Form |
| 3 | Watton, Corey Michael | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 11.25 | 12,300 | 138,377 | 20,250 | Form | |
| 4 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 12.68 | 34,557 | 438,304 | 1,017,661 | Form |
| 5 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 11.30 | 1,794 | 20,272 | 543,812 | Form |
| 6 | McFarlane, Neil F | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 8.56 | 14,625 | 125,186 | 3,314,530 | Form |
| 7 | Schafer, Joshua | CCO | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 9.19 | 10,500 | 96,500 | 572,366 | Form |
| 8 | Sangiovanni, Timothy J | SVP, Finance & Corp Controller | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 9.18 | 3,000 | 27,548 | 271,716 | Form |
| 9 | McFarlane, Neil F | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 9.38 | 91,000 | 853,425 | 3,416,984 | Form |
| 10 | Thompson, Rahsaan | Chief Legal & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 8.83 | 4,080 | 36,010 | 440,580 | Form |
| 11 | Quartel, Adrian W | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 8.83 | 4,533 | 40,036 | 85,875 | Form |
| 12 | Schafer, Joshua | CCO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 8.83 | 3,375 | 29,800 | 330,619 | Form |
| 13 | Sangiovanni, Timothy J | SVP, Finance & Corp Controller | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 8.82 | 1,750 | 15,442 | 184,633 | Form |
| 14 | McFarlane, Neil F | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 10.82 | 19,500 | 210,908 | 2,401,281 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.