Stoke Therapeutics (STOK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $31.38 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Stoke Therapeutics (STOK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $31.38Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 51x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1128% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 183%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 171% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 232% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1128% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 51x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 183%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 171% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 232% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STOK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Beat and Positive Financial Outlook. Stoke Therapeutics reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 12, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations with a narrower net loss per share and significantly higher revenue than forecasted. The company's revenue reached $13.8 million, surpassing the expected $9.39 million. Additionally, Stoke Therapeutics maintained a robust cash position, with $328.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025, which is projected to fund operations into mid-2028.
2. Advancement of Zorevunersen into Phase 3 Clinical Trials for Dravet Syndrome. On August 12, 2025, Stoke Therapeutics announced the dosing of the first patient in the global Phase 3 EMPEROR study for zorevunersen, its lead investigational medicine for Dravet syndrome. This significant milestone, coupled with new three-year open-label extension (OLE) data, demonstrated continued and durable reductions in seizures and improvements in cognition and behavior, supporting zorevunersen's potential as a disease-modifying treatment. Further supporting this, data from Phase 1/2a and OLE studies were presented at the 36th International Epilepsy Congress on September 2, 2025, highlighting zorevunersen's therapeutic potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STOK Return | 119% | -61% | -62% | -43% | 110% | 170% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STOK Win Rate | 58% | 17% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STOK Max Drawdown | -41% | -71% | -71% | -63% | -22% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STOK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1971.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT
In The Past
Stoke Therapeutics's stock fell -95.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/19/2021. A -95.2% loss requires a 1971.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Stoke Therapeutics Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Day 6 of Gains Streak for Stoke Therapeutics Stock with 41% Return (vs. 68% YTD) [8/18/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Stoke Therapeutics Stock with 39% Return (vs. 65% YTD) [8/15/2025] | Notification | ||
| Should You Buy Stoke Therapeutics Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| STOK Stock Up 41% after 6-Day Win Streak | August 19th, 2025 | ||
| STOK Stock Up 39% after 5-Day Win Streak | August 16th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: TLRY, STOK, CC | Losers: ACDC, KLC, CAVA | August 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STOK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stoke Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.1 |
| Rev LTM | 206 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | 52 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,012 |
| CFO LTM | 53 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,190 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 569.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 207.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 64.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -304.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -217.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -222.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.1 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 36.5 |
| P/E | 30.6 |
| P/CFO | 26.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 93.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 86.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 182.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 78.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 63.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 111.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |