Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.29 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.29Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -476 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1062% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -947% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -476 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1062% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -947% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AGIO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) stock moved by -27.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) extended the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date for the supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) of PYRUKYND (mitapivat) for thalassemia by three months to December 7, 2025, due to a request for a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) to address a potential risk of hepatocellular injury.
2. Agios announced mixed topline results from its global Phase 3 RISE UP trial of mitapivat in sickle cell disease on November 19, 2025. While the trial met its primary endpoint of a statistically significant improvement in hemoglobin response, it did not achieve statistical significance in reducing sickle cell pain crises, which likely disappointed investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGIO Return | -9% | -24% | -15% | -21% | 48% | -18% | -43% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGIO Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGIO Max Drawdown | -34% | -32% | -48% | -29% | -4% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGIO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 906 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Agios Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/21/2021. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AGIO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Agios Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.0 |
| Rev LTM | 45 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 41.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -531.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -636.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 34.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -441.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -508.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -459.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -529.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.0 |
| P/S | 30.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 10.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -26.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product revenue, net | 27 | 12 | 60 | ||
| Milestone revenue | 0 | 2 | |||
| Collaboration revenue – other | 11 | ||||
| Collaboration revenue – related party | 39 | ||||
| Royalty revenue – related party | 8 | ||||
| Total | 27 | 14 | 118 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 1,438 | 853 | |||
| Total | 1,438 | 853 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |