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Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.29 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.29
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -476 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1062%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -947%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Personalized Diagnostics.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Personalized Diagnostics.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -476 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1062%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -947%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGIO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) stock moved by -27.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) extended the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date for the supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) of PYRUKYND (mitapivat) for thalassemia by three months to December 7, 2025, due to a request for a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) to address a potential risk of hepatocellular injury.

2. Agios announced mixed topline results from its global Phase 3 RISE UP trial of mitapivat in sickle cell disease on November 19, 2025. While the trial met its primary endpoint of a statistically significant improvement in hemoglobin response, it did not achieve statistical significance in reducing sickle cell pain crises, which likely disappointed investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGIO Return-9%-24%-15%-21%48%-18%-43%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGIO Win Rate50%50%42%50%58%90% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGIO Max Drawdown-34%-32%-48%-29%-4%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGIOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven906 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Agios Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/21/2021. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)

Better Bets than Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGIO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Agios Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGIOVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAgios Ph.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price27.49463.13-2.541.07-15.01
Mkt Cap1.6118.4----60.0
Rev LTM4511,723-0--45
Op Inc LTM-476-92--5---92
FCF LTM-4243,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-3542,064--10---10
CFO LTM-4103,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-3432,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

AGIOVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAgios Ph.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM36.3%10.3%----23.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg71.7%10.5%----41.1%
Rev Chg Q43.7%11.0%----27.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%2.7%----6.1%
Op Mgn LTM-1,061.8%-0.8%-----531.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1,299.8%26.2%-----636.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM67.3%1.0%----34.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-915.2%31.7%-----441.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1,040.8%23.1%-----508.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-946.8%28.5%-----459.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1,077.8%19.8%-----529.0%

Valuation

AGIOVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAgios Ph.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap1.6118.4----60.0
P/S52.18.5----30.3
P/EBIT-4.922.4----8.8
P/E-5.827.2----10.7
P/CFO-5.726.9----10.6
Total Yield-17.2%3.7%-----6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.8%2.3%-----7.8%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.4-0.0-----0.2

Returns

AGIOVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAgios Ph.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn-31.5%8.7%-----11.4%
3M Rtn-32.3%16.8%-----7.8%
6M Rtn-19.2%3.9%-----7.7%
12M Rtn-53.3%1.3%-----26.0%
3Y Rtn-12.8%44.1%----15.7%
1M Excs Rtn-31.5%8.7%-----11.4%
3M Excs Rtn-29.3%11.3%-----9.0%
6M Excs Rtn-33.9%-10.8%-----22.4%
12M Excs Rtn-67.3%-14.6%-----40.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.1%-25.9%-----51.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Product revenue, net2712  60
Milestone revenue02   
Collaboration revenue – other    11
Collaboration revenue – related party    39
Royalty revenue – related party    8
Total2714  118


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment  1,438853 
Total  1,438853 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,331,538
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.9%
Average Daily Volume611,016
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.09
Basic Shares Quantity58,139,277
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021