Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (9/27/2026): $69.84 | Market Cap: $43.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (9/27/2026): $69.84Market Cap: $43.6 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% Key risksXEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% |
| Key risksXEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Xcel Energy (XEL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss: Xcel Energy reported a 5.1% year-over-year decline in revenue, totaling $3.12 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), which fell below analysts' consensus estimates of $3.54 billion. This revenue shortfall, despite an earnings per share beat, was primarily attributed to lower fuel and commodity costs and milder weather conditions across its service territories.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analyst firms revised their outlooks on Xcel Energy, contributing to negative sentiment. Notably, Morgan Stanley cut its price target for XEL from $89 to $83 on September 18, 2026, maintaining an "equal weight" rating. Additionally, UBS downgraded Xcel Energy from "Strong Buy" to "Neutral" on September 21, 2026, while Truist Financial also lowered its price target from $94 to $88 on August 13, 2026. These adjustments likely weighed on the stock's performance.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss: Xcel Energy reported a 5.1% year-over-year decline in revenue, totaling $3.12 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), which fell below analysts' consensus estimates of $3.54 billion. This revenue shortfall, despite an earnings per share beat, was primarily attributed to lower fuel and commodity costs and milder weather conditions across its service territories.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several analyst firms revised their outlooks on Xcel Energy, contributing to negative sentiment. Notably, Morgan Stanley cut its price target for XEL from $89 to $83 on September 18, 2026, maintaining an "equal weight" rating. Additionally, UBS downgraded Xcel Energy from "Strong Buy" to "Neutral" on September 21, 2026, while Truist Financial also lowered its price target from $94 to $88 on August 13, 2026. These adjustments likely weighed on the stock's performance.
3. Concerns Regarding Capital Spending Plan and Equity Needs: Xcel Energy's extensive $60 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal years 2026 through 2030, which includes a projected need for approximately $7 billion in new equity funding, may have raised investor concerns about potential share dilution and increased financial leverage.
4. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Rising Interest Rates: The broader macroeconomic environment, particularly rising interest rates, has pressured utility stocks like Xcel Energy. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for Xcel Energy's capital-intensive projects and can make the company's dividend yield less attractive to income-focused investors compared to other fixed-income alternatives.
5. Ongoing Wildfire Liabilities: Lingering wildfire liabilities continue to be a focus for investors. While Xcel Energy settled all Marshall Fire claims for $640 million, and reported increased insurance recoveries benefiting fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, ongoing estimated losses of $460 million (or $503 million including legal costs) for the Smokehouse Creek Fire Complex in Texas introduce an element of financial uncertainty.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.8% change in XEL stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.28 | 69.80 | -10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,784 | 14,616 | -1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.1% | 15.3% | 8.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.4 | 19.5 | -16.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 624 | 625 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | -10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | -10.5% | 90.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.3% change in XEL stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.47 | 69.80 | -14.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,669 | 14,616 | -0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 19.5 | -18.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 596 | 625 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | -14.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | 6.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | -16.1% | 86.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.2% change in XEL stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 69.66 | 69.80 | 0.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,957 | 14,616 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 19.5 | -0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 586 | 625 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | 0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 0.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | -3.7% | 78.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.4% change in XEL stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.18 | 69.80 | 36.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,237 | 14,616 | -4.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 15.3% | 34.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 19.5 | 20.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 551 | 625 | -11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XEL | 36.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.8% | 11.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 37.4% | 71.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XEL Return | 4% | 6% | -9% | 12% | 14% | -4% | 25% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -1% | -11% | 19% | 16% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XEL Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 53% | 58% | 63% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XEL Max Drawdown | -14% | -25% | -22% | -24% | -11% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -26% | -27% | -13% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, SO, DUK, AEP, D. See XEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Xcel Energy's stock fell -2.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | XEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Xcel Energy's stock fell -2.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Xcel Energy (XEL)
Xcel Energy (XEL) is a prominent utility company primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity and natural gas. The company operates a diverse energy portfolio, generating electricity from sources such as coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, and wind, alongside purchasing power from external providers. Simultaneously, Xcel Energy is responsible for the procurement, transportation, and distribution of natural gas to its service areas.
The company's main services include providing reliable electricity and natural gas to a vast customer base. Beyond its core utility operations, Xcel Energy also develops and leases natural gas pipelines, storage, and compression facilities, and makes strategic investments in rental housing projects. Its primary customers are residential, commercial, and industrial clients, totaling approximately 3.7 million electricity customers and 2.1 million natural gas customers across portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin.
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Analogies:
- Xcel Energy is like AT&T for electricity and natural gas.
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- Electricity Utility Services: Xcel Energy generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Natural Gas Utility Services: The company purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers.
- Natural Gas Transportation Services: Xcel Energy also provides services for transporting customer-owned natural gas.
- Natural Gas Infrastructure Services: The company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, along with storage and compression facilities.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) primarily sells electricity and natural gas directly to end-users across several states. Its major customer categories are:
- Residential customers
- Commercial customers
- Industrial customers
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Major suppliers for Xcel Energy include:
- Vestas Wind Systems A/S (CPH: VWS)
- Siemens Energy AG (XTRA: ENR)
- Array Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARRY)
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Robert (Bob) Frenzel, Chairman, President and CEO
Bob Frenzel was appointed Chairman, President and CEO of Xcel Energy in August 2021. He joined Xcel Energy in 2016 as Chief Financial Officer. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, leading Xcel Energy's four utility operating companies, as well as its transmission, distribution, and natural gas operations. Before joining Xcel Energy, Frenzel served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Luminant, a competitive power generating subsidiary of Energy Future Holdings, Inc. At Energy Future Holdings (EFH), he also held the position of Senior Vice President for Corporate Development, Strategy, and Mergers & Acquisitions, where he was responsible for overall corporate and business unit strategy, and identifying priorities for growth, investment, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures. Earlier in his career, Frenzel was a Vice President at Goldman Sachs in the energy and power group, focusing on strategic and financial transactions, including corporate and asset-level acquisitions and divestitures, and capital-raising activities. He also worked as a Manager and Senior Consultant at Arthur Andersen. Frenzel began his career serving six years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear engineering officer and weapons officer.
Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian Van Abel is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Xcel Energy, leading the company's finance functions. He was promoted to this role on March 31, 2020. Van Abel joined Xcel Energy in 2010. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Corporate Development, where he was responsible for developing the company's short- and long-term financial plans and executing acquisitions and divestitures. He also previously held the role of Vice President and Treasurer, managing the company's capital structure and ensuring sufficient liquidity. Before joining Xcel Energy, Van Abel spent four years in management consulting in the retail banking sector, advising financial institutions on various engagements.
Amanda Rome, Executive Vice President, Group President - Utilities, and Chief Customer Officer
Amanda Rome is the Executive Vice President, Group President - Utilities, and Chief Customer Officer, responsible for the strategic direction of Xcel Energy's four operating companies and its customer-facing organizations. Rome joined Xcel Energy in 2015 as the lead regulatory attorney for the company's northern jurisdictions. She previously served as Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, overseeing the law department and overall legal strategy, and as Vice President, Deputy General Counsel, leading the company's regulatory, commercial, and environmental groups. Prior to her time at Xcel Energy, Rome worked as a federal court litigator at Winston & Strawn in Chicago and Faegre Baker Daniels in Minneapolis.
Ryan Long, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer
Ryan Long serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, overseeing Xcel Energy's legal and corporate compliance group. He joined Xcel Energy in 2015. Before stepping into his current role, he served as Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, managing legal teams responsible for federal and state regulatory, environmental, and real estate matters. Prior to joining Xcel Energy, Long worked as a litigator for Faegre Baker Daniels in Minneapolis and Cravath Swaine & Moore in New York City.
Tim O'Connor, Executive Vice President, Chief Operations Officer
Tim O'Connor was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer of Xcel Energy in August 2021. In this role, he oversees nuclear generation, energy supply, supply chain, commercial operations, distribution, transmission, and the company's natural gas business. O'Connor joined Xcel Energy in 2007, and prior to his current position, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Generation Officer since 2020. He is recognized for his contributions to building one of the nation's top-performing nuclear fleets.
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Here are the key risks to Xcel Energy (XEL):
-
Wildfire Risk and Associated Litigation and Liability: Xcel Energy operates in regions, particularly Colorado and Texas, that are increasingly susceptible to wildfires. These events pose significant operational, financial, and reputational risks. The company is currently facing ongoing litigation related to past wildfires, such as the Marshall and Smokehouse Creek fires, which create substantial financial uncertainty and could lead to significant liabilities. To mitigate this, Xcel Energy is undertaking considerable investments in wildfire prevention and safety measures, including extensive mitigation plans.
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Regulatory and Policy Risks Related to Decarbonization and Energy Transition: Xcel Energy is committed to an aggressive clean energy transition, aiming for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from its natural gas business by 2050. This transition necessitates massive capital investments in new renewable generation, transmission infrastructure, and grid modernization. The company's ability to recover these substantial costs and achieve targeted returns is highly dependent on favorable regulatory approvals and consistent policy frameworks across the multiple states it serves. Unfavorable regulatory outcomes, delays in project approvals, or evolving environmental policies could significantly impact its financial performance and growth prospects. There is also a risk of stranded assets, particularly from over-investing in natural gas plants that may conflict with long-term decarbonization goals.
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Significant Capital Expenditure Requirements and Financial Risks: Xcel Energy has outlined a substantial capital expenditure program, totaling approximately $45 billion through 2029, primarily focused on clean energy and grid modernization initiatives. Funding this extensive investment plan requires frequent access to capital markets and often involves taking on significant debt. Consequently, the company is exposed to financial risks such as rising interest rates, which can increase borrowing costs and impact profitability, and potential disruptions in capital markets that could hinder its ability to secure necessary financing.
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The clear emerging threat for Xcel Energy is the accelerating adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), primarily customer-owned rooftop solar panels combined with battery storage systems. This trend allows residential, commercial, and industrial customers to generate and store their own electricity, significantly reducing their reliance on purchasing power from Xcel Energy's grid. This directly impacts Xcel Energy's electricity sales and customer base, potentially leading to decreased revenue and underutilization of its generation, transmission, and distribution assets.
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Xcel Energy (XEL) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Significant Capital Investments and Rate Base Growth: Xcel Energy has outlined ambitious capital investment plans, including approximately $45 billion from 2025-2029 and $60 billion from 2026-2030, aimed at modernizing and expanding its transmission, distribution, electric generation, and renewable energy infrastructure. These strategic investments enable the company to grow its rate base, which, as a regulated utility, allows it to recover costs and earn a return through approved rate increases, directly contributing to revenue growth.
- Expanding Customer Base: Xcel Energy continues to see consistent growth in its customer base for both electric and natural gas services. For example, in the second quarter of 2025, the electric customer base increased by 1% year-over-year, and the natural gas customer base improved by 0.9%. In 2025, electric customer volume grew by 0.7%, and natural gas customer volume increased by 0.8%. This organic expansion in the number of customers served translates into higher sales volumes and, consequently, increased revenue.
- Rising Electricity Demand, Particularly from Data Centers: A significant driver of future electric sales growth is the increasing demand from data centers. Xcel Energy has doubled its data center contracted capacity target to 6 GW by the end of 2027, up from an earlier target of 3 GW. This surge in demand from high-load data center facilities represents a substantial opportunity for increased electricity sales.
- Overall Electric Sales Volume Growth: Beyond specific customer segments, Xcel Energy anticipates general growth in its electric sales volumes. The company projects weather-normalized retail electric sales growth of approximately 3% in 2026, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue.
- Natural Gas Sales Volume Growth: The company also forecasts an increase in natural gas sales volumes, with an expected growth of 1% in 2026. This contributes to the overall revenue stream from its regulated natural gas utility segment.
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Share Repurchases
- Xcel Energy has not made significant share repurchases in recent years, with fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 showing an average buyback yield of -1.6%, indicating net issuance.
- Quarterly data reveals very small amounts of share buybacks, such as $22.50K in March 2025, $51.33K in March 2023, and $159.98K in March 2022.
Share Issuance
- Xcel Energy's shares outstanding have been increasing, with 0.589 billion shares in 2025, representing a 4.62% increase from 2024.
- The company's share count increased by 5% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting accelerating dilution.
- As of February 26, 2026, Xcel Energy registered 7,484,917 shares of its common stock for issuance under its Dividend Reinvestment and Stock Purchase Plan.
Capital Expenditures
- Xcel Energy has a five-year capital investment plan for 2026-2030 totaling $60 billion, a significant increase from its previous forecast of $45 billion.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on modernizing and expanding the grid, integrating clean energy, and enhancing reliability, including investments in approximately 11,000 MW of wind capacity, major solar projects, and 1,500 miles of new transmission lines. Specifically, $23.4 billion is allocated for electric generation, $15.4 billion for electric transmission, and $13.9 billion for electric distribution.
- Historical capital expenditures show a ramp-up, from -$4.24 billion in fiscal year 2021 to -$7.36 billion in 2024, with nearly $12 billion invested in 2025 as the largest annual total.
Peer Outperformance in Multi-Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | Xcel Energy | -1.2% | 19.5x | -9.2% | 35.0% | 31.7% | — |
| OGE | OGE Energy | 1.6% | 19.8x | 1.6% | 51.5% | 66.0% | +34pp |
| CNP | CenterPoint Energy | 1.5% | 21.7x | -2.9% | 46.5% | 64.4% | +33pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -23.1% | 106.1% | 170.6% | HNRG 477% · OKLO 288% · NRG 171% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | -2.3% | 44.5% | 39.4% | ATO 103% · NJR 74% · NFG 70% |
| Electric Utilities | 24 | -0.7% | 40.2% | 38.6% | VST 782% · GNE 161% · ETR 137% |
| Multi-Utilities ← | 18 | -1.0% | 39.4% | 38.4% | NI 94% · MDU 94% · ED 69% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 3.7% | 6.8% | -12.5% | CWCO 165% · HTO 8% · AWR 6% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -50.0% | -67.7% | -94.6% | ORA 40% · CWEN 26% · AGIG -95% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 76.4 |
| Rev LTM | 25,746 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,322 |
| FCF LTM | -3,772 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,045 |
| CFO LTM | 9,172 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,137 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -11.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 76.4 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.2 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.9 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.8% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 12,161 | 11,149 | 11,448 | 12,125 | 11,207 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 2,478 | 2,252 | 2,648 | 3,082 | 2,134 |
| Non-segment revenues | 57 | 64 | 115 | 107 | |
| Intersegment revenue | -27 | -24 | -5 | -4 | -4 |
| Other | 94 | ||||
| Total | 14,669 | 13,441 | 14,206 | 15,310 | 13,431 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 715 | -65 | ||
| Electric Utility | 479 | 535 | 341 | |
| Gas Utility | 99 | 82 | 58 | |
| NRG | -3,464 | 265 | 183 | |
| eprime | 9 | -6 | ||
| Xcel Energy International | 29 | |||
| Electric | 456 | |||
| Gas | 50 | |||
| Total | -2,172 | 825 | 605 | 507 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 1,870 | 1,846 | 1,686 | 1,631 | 1,478 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 256 | 237 | 219 | 264 | 231 |
| Other | -112 | ||||
| Total | 2,126 | 2,083 | 1,905 | 1,895 | 1,597 |
| $ Mil | 1997 |
|---|---|
| Electric | 4,845 |
| Gas | 675 |
| Total | 5,520 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $69.80 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 43.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $76.19 | $77.00 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.4% | -9.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| Downside Capture | 67.89 | 10.12 |
| Upside Capture | -25.47 | -3.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.02 | -0.05 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.15 |
| Up Beta | -0.24 | -0.32 | 0.01 | -0.06 | -0.04 | 0.17 |
| Down Beta | -0.35 | 0.91 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Up Capture | -8% | -33% | -32% | -5% | -0% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 32 | 63 | 131 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 75% | 6% | -21% | 15% | -17% | 10% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 32 | 64 | 119 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | -7.7% | 18.9% | -0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -6.5% | 15.3% | -0.64 | 81.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 13.0% | 0.98 | 2.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.7% | 29.3% | 0.46 | 15.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.3% | 20.7% | 1.66 | -8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 13.6% | 0.07 | 51.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.9% | 44.8% | -0.54 | -2.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | 5.1% | 20.9% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 6.7% | 17.4% | 0.24 | 78.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 14.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.6% | 0.43 | 2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 50.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 52.6% | 0.41 | 8.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL | 8.8% | 21.7% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.2% | 19.2% | 0.36 | 85.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 40.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 15.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 60.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.8% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 7.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -0.0% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.4% | -3.0% | -7.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 6.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 4.7% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -0.0% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | -0.4% | -3.0% | -7.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | 3.8% | 7.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 6.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.1% | -1.6% | 3.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.8% | 3.8% | -1.4% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 0.0% | -2.5% | -8.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -8.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -0.5% | 1.1% | -4.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.4% | 3.0% | 9.7% |
| 7/28/2022 | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| 4/28/2022 | -2.2% | -2.8% | 1.9% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.3% | 0.8% | -2.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 0.6% | -0.1% | -7.1% |
| 10/29/2020 | -1.0% | 4.2% | -4.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 4.7% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 27, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
XEL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Xcel is executing a historic, multi-year investment plan driven by contracted demand from data centers, which underpins a 9-plus percent average earnings per share growth target through 2030. While this requires significant capital and creates near-term cash flow pressure, management has a strong record of delivering on its targets and securing the required regulatory approvals to monetize these investments.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Regulated UtilityRevenue = (Approved Rate Base * Allowed Return on Equity) + Pass-Through Fuel/Operating Costs Achieving constructive outcomes in regulatory rate cases to expand the rate base and earn the allowed ROE on new capital investments.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; Xcel has secured over 2 gigawatts of new data center load, fueling a $60 billion investment plan.
- Management targets 6 gigawatts of contracted data center capacity by 2027.
- A $60 billion five-year capital plan is in place.
- The plan is projected to drive 11% annualized rate base growth.
- Management projects 9-plus percent average earnings per share growth through 2030.
- Weather-normalized retail electric sales are forecast to grow approximately 3% in 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The massive investment plan is causing severe cash burn, with free cash flow at negative $7.7 billion, requiring supportive regulators and capital markets to fund the growth without destroying shareholder value.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $7.7 billion.
- Capital expenditure is 85.3% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
- Share count increased 13.4% over the last three years.
- Higher interest expense reduced Q2 earnings by $0.12 per share.
- An analyst note cited regulatory pushback on returns in Colorado.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Weather-Normalized Retail Electric Sales Growth | 1.5% year-over-year for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - Stable | Weather-normalized retail electric sales growth remains positive, with year-to-date growth of 2.1%. While the most recent quarter showed a sequential slowdown, management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 forecast for sales to increase approximately 3%, implying an expected re-acceleration in the second half of the year. |
| Capital Investment Plan & Implied Rate Base Growth | A $60 billion 5-year base investment plan, supplemented by a pipeline of $10-plus billion in incremental opportunities. - Accelerating | The capital plan is the primary driver of future earnings, with the base plan implying an 11% annualized rate base growth. The consistent conversion of the incremental pipeline, fueled by data center demand and regional transmission needs, provides visibility for growth acceleration. Management noted it has already executed on its original incremental pipeline and sees more opportunities. |
| Capital Investment | Over $6 billion (Year-to-date as of June 30, 2026) | Represents spending on new infrastructure, which grows the company's rate base. Rate base growth is the primary driver of future earnings for a regulated utility. |
| Contracted Data Center Capacity | Over 2 gigawatts (As of February 2026) | Quantifies a key source of future large-scale electricity demand, providing visibility into a significant growth driver that requires substantial new generation and transmission investment. |
Contracted Growth vs. Financing Strain
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 20-plus gigawatt large load pipeline and management's 21-year record of meeting guidance, betting execution will convert capital spending into high-quality earnings.
CORE TENSION
Can the 11% targeted rate base growth from new projects overcome the rising financing costs that drove the negative stock reaction to the last earnings report?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance and is on track to meet its 2026 data center contracting goals.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the negative $7.7 billion free cash flow and rising interest costs, fearing that any regulatory pushback or execution slip will make the growth too expensive to fund.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
the third quarter of 2026 | Adverse Colorado Rate Case Rulings Watch: Final CPUC orders on allowed ROE, equity ratio, and recovery of specific capital and operating costs. |
the fourth quarter of 2026 | Unfavorable New Mexico Rate Decision Watch: Final NMPRC order, specifically the approved revenue increase, ROE, and equity ratio versus the company's request. |
10/29/2026 | Peer Dominion Energy Earnings Watch: Peer Dominion Energy (D) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/5/2026 | Peer Duke Energy Earnings Watch: Peer Duke Energy (DUK) is scheduled to report earnings. |
November 2026 | Minnesota Gas Rate Case Decision Watch: A MPUC decision is expected in the 2025 Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case. |
by the end of this year | Failure to Meet Data Center Target Watch: Company announcements of new, signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) for large data center loads. |
No set date | Negative Weather Impact on Earnings Watch: Weather reports for key service territories (Colorado, Minnesota, Texas) during peak cooling and heating seasons. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-25 | Analyst Highlights AI Demand Driver Details: An analyst note on August 25 stated Xcel Energy is well positioned for AI-driven energy demand, citing its capital plan and major clean energy contracts with customers like Alphabet. | +0.5% $76.71 -> $77.06 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings Report and Stock Drop Details: Reported Q2 2026 ongoing earnings of $0.93 per share, up from $0.75 in Q2 2025. Despite the beat, the stock had a -1.0% two-day reaction. | -0.7% $78.12 -> $77.58 |
2026-06-01 | Minnesota Electric Rate Case Decision Details: In June 2026, the MPUC issued a verbal decision in the 2024 rate case, approving an estimated rate increase over two years. | -2.1% $78.28 -> $76.67 |
2026-05-01 | South Dakota Rate Case Settled Details: The SDPUC approved a settlement agreement for NSP-Minnesota's electric rate case, resulting in a net annual rate increase. New rates became effective July 1, 2026. | -2.1% $81.67 -> $79.92 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 Earnings Beat and Positive Reaction Details: Reported Q1 2026 ongoing earnings of $0.91 per share, up from $0.84 in Q1 2025. The stock reacted positively, rising 5.0% over two days around the announcement. | +4.8% $77.61 -> $81.31 |
2026-03-01 | Minnesota Wind Project Filing Details: NSP-Minnesota filed for approval of recommended projects to acquire 1,200 MW of wind assets to replace capacity associated with the retiring Sherco coal facilities. | +0.4% $81.58 -> $81.90 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XEL trades at roughly 22% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.6x the market), around the 54th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NEE - NextEra Energy
Best-in-Class OperatorIts FPL utility boasts residential bills approximately 30% below the national average.
SO - a business partner
Peer-Scale Competitora business partner provides exposure to the same data center growth theme but in a different geography. It has also secured massive contracts, including a 3.2 gigawatt deal with a business partner.
A regulated utility in a heavy investment cycle, converting massive capital expenditures into rate base growth to serve accelerating demand from data centers and electrification.
Xcel Energy is executing its largest-ever capital plan to modernize its grid and build new generation to meet strong demand, particularly from data centers. This investment is designed to grow its regulated rate base, the core driver of earnings. Success hinges on securing constructive outcomes in frequent rate cases to ensure timely recovery of these investments and earn an approved return.
Favorable rate case settlements or decisions, announcements of new large load/data center contracts, and on-budget completion of major capital projects.
Negative rate case outcomes (cost disallowances, lower-than-requested ROE), major project delays or cost overruns, or significant wildfire liabilities exceeding insurance coverage.
Quarterly earnings fluctuations due to weather, which are often normalized or addressed through regulatory mechanisms over time.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of the multi-billion dollar capital plan and securing constructive outcomes in a series of pending rate cases across its jurisdictions, which would validate its earnings growth trajectory.
Regulated Electric utility
$12.2B TTM (83% of Total)What It Is
Generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. It also engages in wholesale sales and transmission services.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers pay for electricity to power homes, businesses, and industrial operations. Customers choose Xcel as it is the regulated monopoly provider in its designated service territories.
Competition
Regulated Natural Gas utility
$2.5B TTM (17% of Total)What It Is
Transports and distributes natural gas to residential and commercial customers for heating and other purposes.
Who Pays & How
Residential and commercial customers pay for natural gas, primarily for heating. As the regulated provider, customers in its service area rely on Xcel for gas service.
Competition
Xcel Energy — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Multi-Utilities Resources |
| Public Utilities Fortnightly |
| Power Magazine |
| Energy Central |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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