Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $70.39 | Market Cap: $35.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $70.39Market Cap: $35.1 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% Key risksPEG key risks include [1] regulatory challenges that could limit its ability to recover capital project investments through rates and [2] uncertainty in securing long-term revenue agreements for its nuclear assets. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% |
| Key risksPEG key risks include [1] regulatory challenges that could limit its ability to recover capital project investments through rates and [2] uncertainty in securing long-term revenue agreements for its nuclear assets. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Public Service Enterprise (PEG) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) experienced a significant revenue miss for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. The company reported revenue of $2.55 billion, falling short of analysts' estimates, which ranged from $2.66 billion to $2.73 billion. This represented an 8.9% decline year-over-year. Despite an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beat, the substantial top-line miss likely contributed to investor concerns and selling pressure.
2. The company's GAAP net income declined considerably in fiscal Q2 2026 due to the expiration of the Zero Emission Certificate (ZEC) program. Net income for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, was $334 million ($0.67 per share), a significant decrease from $585 million ($1.17 per share) in the same period last year. This reduction in reported profitability, largely attributable to the ZEC program concluding in May 2025, negatively impacted the stock's performance.
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Public Service Enterprise (PEG) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) experienced a significant revenue miss for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026. The company reported revenue of $2.55 billion, falling short of analysts' estimates, which ranged from $2.66 billion to $2.73 billion. This represented an 8.9% decline year-over-year. Despite an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beat, the substantial top-line miss likely contributed to investor concerns and selling pressure.
2. The company's GAAP net income declined considerably in fiscal Q2 2026 due to the expiration of the Zero Emission Certificate (ZEC) program. Net income for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, was $334 million ($0.67 per share), a significant decrease from $585 million ($1.17 per share) in the same period last year. This reduction in reported profitability, largely attributable to the ZEC program concluding in May 2025, negatively impacted the stock's performance.
3. Several analyst firms downgraded their ratings or lowered price targets for PEG stock in August 2026. For instance, Citigroup reduced its price target from $91.00 to $84.00, while Wells Fargo & Company decreased its target from $91.00 to $89.00. Additionally, Weiss Ratings lowered PEG from a "buy (b-)" to a "hold (c)" rating, and Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold". This wave of downward revisions in analyst sentiment contributed to the stock's negative trend.
4. Investor sentiment was impacted by the anticipated loss of the 50 basis point RTO incentive, projected to be an $0.08 per share annual headwind starting in 2027. While management had planned for this event, the forward-looking impact on earnings likely added a layer of caution for investors, contributing to the stock's decline in the specified period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.9% change in PEG stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.27 | 70.39 | -8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,794 | 12,543 | -2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.7% | 16.0% | -9.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 17.4 | 2.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | -11.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | -7.0% | 90.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.1% change in PEG stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.88 | 70.39 | -16.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,168 | 12,543 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.3% | 16.0% | -7.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 17.4 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -16.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 6.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | -12.8% | 89.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.9% change in PEG stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.98 | 70.39 | -10.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,134 | 12,543 | 12.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.8% | 16.0% | -9.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 17.4 | -12.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -10.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 8.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 0.1% | 81.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in PEG stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.83 | 70.39 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,587 | 12,543 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.0% | 16.0% | -33.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 17.4 | 77.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 497 | 498 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 31.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 42.7% | 81.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEG Return | 18% | -5% | 4% | 43% | -2% | -10% | 47% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 3% | -7% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEG Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEG Max Drawdown | -9% | -27% | -15% | -12% | -14% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -26% | -21% | -13% | -13% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EXC, ED, D, SO, DUK. See PEG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Public Service Enterprise's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PEG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1845 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Public Service Enterprise's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) is a prominent energy company primarily serving the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. Operating through its two main segments, PSE&G and PSEG Power, the company focuses on delivering essential utility services and energy infrastructure management across its service territories.
The core of PEG's business lies within its PSE&G segment, which is responsible for the transmission of electricity and the distribution of both electricity and natural gas. This segment caters to a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients. Beyond standard utility delivery, PSE&G also invests in solar generation projects and energy efficiency initiatives, while providing appliance services and repairs. The company maintains an extensive network of infrastructure, including thousands of miles of electric transmission and distribution lines and natural gas mains, ensuring reliable energy supply to its customers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Public Service Enterprise (PEG):
- It's like your local water company, but for electricity and natural gas.
- Think of it as a regional Comcast or Verizon, but for power and natural gas delivery.
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- Electricity Transmission: The company transmits high-voltage electricity across its extensive network.
- Electricity Distribution: The company distributes electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Gas Distribution: The company distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Energy Efficiency Programs: The company offers programs designed to help customers reduce energy consumption.
- Appliance Services and Repairs: The company provides maintenance and repair services for customer appliances.
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Public Service Enterprise Group (symbol: PEG) primarily serves individual and organizational end-users directly.
Its customer categories include:
- Residential customers
- Commercial customers
- Industrial customers
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Ralph A. LaRossa, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer
Ralph A. LaRossa was appointed CEO of Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) in September 2022 and Chair in January 2023. He has been with PSEG for several decades, holding various key leadership positions. Previously, he served as Chief Operating Officer of PSEG from January 2020 to August 2022 and as President and COO of PSEG Power from June 2017 to August 2022. In his role as PSEG COO, he was responsible for overseeing all of the operating businesses of PSEG. Mr. LaRossa is a seasoned utility executive with a strong background in operations and leadership within the energy sector. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in mechanical engineering from Stevens Institute of Technology.
Daniel J. Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Daniel J. Cregg has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Public Service Enterprise Group and its subsidiaries since October 2015. He is responsible for all financial functions, including Investor Relations, Planning, Strategy, Corporate Development, and Commercial Operations. Mr. Cregg joined PSEG in 1991 and has held various executive positions within the company. Prior to joining PSEG, he spent five years with the accounting and consulting firm of Deloitte and Touche, with an emphasis on the utility sector. He holds an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a bachelor's degree in accounting from Lehigh University. NJBIZ named Mr. Cregg 2018 CFO of the Year for public companies.
Tamara L. Linde, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Tamara L. Linde is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer for PSEG, a position she has held since July 2014. She oversees all legal matters and is responsible for the overall legal and regulatory strategy, as well as the Company's Office of Corporate Secretary, Compliance, and Claims functions. Ms. Linde joined PSEG's law department in 1990 and has over 30 years of experience in energy, regulatory, legal, risk, environmental, and governmental affairs. She earned her Juris Doctorate and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Seton Hall University.
Kim C. Hanemann, President and Chief Operating Officer, PSE&G
Kim C. Hanemann is the President and Chief Operating Officer of Public Service Electric & Gas Company (PSE&G), PSEG's largest subsidiary. She is a member of PSEG's Senior Executive Team. Ms. Hanemann previously served as PSE&G's Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. She holds a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Lehigh University and a Master of Business Administration from the Rutgers Graduate School of Management.
Charles V. (Chaz) McFeaters, President and Chief Nuclear Officer, PSEG Nuclear LLC
Charles V. (Chaz) McFeaters was appointed President and Chief Nuclear Officer of PSEG Nuclear effective May 2023. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the safe and reliable operations of the PSEG Nuclear Fleet, which includes the Hope Creek and Salem nuclear generating stations.
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- Regulatory and Political Risk in New Jersey: A significant portion of Public Service Enterprise Group's operating income is derived from its regulated utility segment, PSE&G. This makes the company highly susceptible to changes in regulatory and political landscapes, particularly in New Jersey. Potential risks include proposed utility rate freezes and the possibility of a lower Return on Equity (ROE) for PSE&G's regulated assets, as indicated by recent discussions around New Jersey's Governor-elect's energy plan. The upcoming New Jersey Governor election also creates uncertainty, as utility costs have become a central election issue, potentially leading to shifts in policy priorities that could impact PEG's operations and financial performance. Furthermore, the timing of regulatory and legislative approvals for critical capital investments, such as gas and nuclear procurement bills, could limit the company's projected returns. The company is also subject to scrutiny and potential penalties from federal regulators, as evidenced by a $6.6 million fine from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for misreporting transmission needs and ongoing challenges to cost recovery for transmission projects.
- Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Public Service Enterprise Group's infrastructure and operations are exposed to the increasing risks of extreme weather and climate change. The company has acknowledged the mounting challenges posed by events such as severe storms, floods, extreme heat, cold temperatures, heavy precipitation, high winds, and ice. These events can threaten the electrical system, lead to increased operational costs, and necessitate substantial investments in infrastructure resilience. Beyond physical impacts, the company also faces financial and transition risks related to climate change, including potential increases in legislative and regulatory burdens, evolving customer preferences towards cleaner energy, and the risk of climate change-related lawsuits.
- Volatility in PSEG Power (Deregulated Nuclear Generation) Segment: The PSEG Power segment, which includes the company's deregulated nuclear generation fleet, introduces an element of volatility to Public Service Enterprise Group's financial performance. This volatility primarily stems from non-trading Mark-To-Market (MTM) gains and losses on its commodity positions and, to a lesser extent, from securities held in its Nuclear Decommissioning Trust (NDT). The viability of nuclear power can also be questioned by policymakers and regulators in the event of a publicized accident or near-accident at a nuclear plant, which could significantly impact this segment. Additional risks include increased nuclear fuel storage costs, compliance with environmental regulations such as the Clean Water Act, and fluctuations in wholesale power and natural gas markets that can affect the economic viability of its generation units.
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Public Service Enterprise (PEG) Addressable Market Sizes
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG), primarily operating in New Jersey, has identifiable addressable markets for its main electricity and natural gas distribution services within the state.Electricity Distribution
The addressable market for electricity distribution in New Jersey is estimated to be approximately $12.0 billion annually. This figure is derived from New Jersey's total retail electricity sales of 73,531,424 megawatthours (MWh) in 2024, at an average retail price of 16.29 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in the same year. PSE&G, a subsidiary of Public Service Enterprise Group, is the largest electric utility in New Jersey, serving 2.4 million electric customers across 15 counties.Natural Gas Distribution
The addressable market for natural gas distribution in New Jersey is projected to be $8.7 billion in 2026. PSE&G is the largest natural gas utility in New Jersey, serving 1.9 million natural gas customers. Other services, such as solar generation projects and energy efficiency programs in New Jersey, and nuclear power generation, do not have explicitly defined monetary addressable market sizes in the available information, based on the specific request criteria.AI Analysis | Feedback
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily stemming from substantial regulated investments and strategic alignment with clean energy initiatives.
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Significant Regulated Capital Investments and Rate Base Growth: PSEG has outlined a robust capital investment plan, with $24 billion to $28 billion allocated for 2026-2030, and over 90% of this directed towards regulated investments. These investments are focused on upgrading and modernizing electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, enhancing grid reliability and resilience, and supporting a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its rate base of 6% to 7.5% through 2030. This expanding rate base is a primary engine for regulated earnings and, consequently, revenue growth.
- Expansion of Clean Energy Programs and Energy Efficiency Initiatives: The company is heavily investing in clean energy solutions and energy efficiency programs, aligning with New Jersey's clean energy goals and PSEG's commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2030. These initiatives include investments in solar generation projects, infrastructure for electric vehicle charging, battery storage, and comprehensive energy efficiency offerings that help customers reduce energy consumption and costs. These programs contribute to rate base growth and represent an expanding segment of their service offerings.
- Increased Customer Demand, Particularly from Data Centers: PSEG expects revenue growth driven by increased customer connections and significant load growth, especially from data centers. This growing demand for electricity and gas directly translates into higher sales volumes and increased revenue. The company's updated capital plan, including an additional $1.5 billion in spending, is partly driven by new customer connections and reliability upgrades to support this demand.
- Favorable Regulatory Outcomes, Including New Distribution Rates and Clause-Based Cost Recoveries: Revenue growth is also supported by the implementation of new electric and gas base distribution rates and clause-based recoveries for investments. These regulatory mechanisms allow PSEG to recover costs and earn a return on its approved investments in infrastructure and energy efficiency programs, contributing directly to utility margin and overall revenue.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- Public Service Enterprise Group's capital investment plans for 2024-2028, 2025-2029, and 2026-2030 are structured to be funded without the need for new equity issuance or asset sales.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, Public Service Enterprise Group divested 6,750 megawatts of fossil generation as part of a strategic alternatives process to enhance its focus on infrastructure and clean energy investments.
Capital Expenditures
- Public Service Enterprise Group has significantly increased its capital spending plans, with the regulated 5-year capital investment plan for 2026-2030 now ranging from $22.5 billion to $25.5 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion over previous plans. The total capital program for 2026-2030 is projected between $24 billion and $28 billion.
- Planned regulated investments for 2026 are expected to be approximately $4.2 billion, representing a 13.5% increase from 2025's estimated $3.7 billion. Annual capital expenditures were $3.325 billion in 2023, $3.38 billion in 2024, and $3.272 billion in 2025.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on infrastructure modernization, enhancing electric reliability and system resilience, meeting growing customer demand (including from data centers), and advancing clean energy initiatives such as solar, energy efficiency, electrification, and upgrades to nuclear facilities.
Peer Outperformance in Electric Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | 3.3% | 17.4x | -10.4% | 26.6% | 34.5% | — |
| VST | Vistra | 6.7% | 21.3x | -32.6% | 339.6% | 758.5% | +724pp |
| ETR | Entergy | 0.7% | 25.8x | 18.8% | 129.2% | 121.7% | +87pp |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 5.5% | 20.9x | 16.5% | 68.0% | 71.8% | +37pp |
| SO | Southern | 3.1% | 21.1x | -2.5% | 34.5% | 61.4% | +27pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -20.6% | 112.7% | 191.0% | HNRG 533% · OKLO 262% · NRG 191% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 6.9% | 44.0% | 46.6% | ATO 106% · NFG 83% · NJR 82% |
| Electric Utilities ← | 24 | 7.1% | 38.5% | 40.9% | VST 758% · GNE 176% · ETR 122% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 8.0% | 37.8% | 40.4% | NI 99% · MDU 94% · CNP 78% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 11.4% | 3.9% | -8.3% | CWCO 166% · AWR 12% · HTO 10% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -24.2% | -63.6% | -94.5% | ORA 38% · CWEN 23% · AGIG -94% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 78.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 49.7 |
| Rev LTM | 21,722 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,182 |
| FCF LTM | -2,592 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,746 |
| CFO LTM | 6,560 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,762 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -9.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 49.7 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.7 |
| P/E | 17.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.5% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 9,558 | 8,449 | 7,807 | 7,935 | 7,122 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 3,722 | 2,807 | 4,533 | 3,266 | 3,767 |
| Eliminations | -1,112 | -966 | -1,103 | -1,401 | -1,167 |
| Total | 12,168 | 10,290 | 11,237 | 9,800 | 9,722 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 1,974 | 1,892 | 1,818 | 1,639 | 1,469 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 1,711 | -511 | -2,674 | 603 | 448 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other | 28 | 26 | |||
| Total | 3,685 | 1,381 | -856 | 2,270 | 1,943 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 1,745 | 1,547 | 1,515 | 1,565 | 1,446 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 366 | 225 | 1,048 | -534 | -2,094 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2,111 | 1,772 | 2,563 | 1,031 | -648 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 49,024 | 46,364 | 42,873 | 39,960 | 37,198 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 9,067 | 8,673 | 8,407 | 9,285 | 12,258 |
| Eliminations | -515 | -397 | -539 | -527 | -457 |
| Total | 57,576 | 54,640 | 50,741 | 48,718 | 48,999 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $70.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 35.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.29 | $78.20 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.5% | -10.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| Downside Capture | 10.50 | 12.24 |
| Upside Capture | -50.48 | -2.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -8.8% | 7.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.09 | -0.12 | -0.21 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| Up Beta | -0.25 | -0.22 | -0.12 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| Down Beta | -0.12 | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| Up Capture | -32% | -58% | -40% | -11% | -0% | 13% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 29 | 60 | 128 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 63% | 9% | -22% | 23% | 15% | 60% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 34 | 66 | 122 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | -12.3% | 18.4% | -0.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -1.5% | 15.2% | -0.31 | 80.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 12.8% | 0.82 | 7.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 29.3% | 0.50 | 14.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.7% | 1.76 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.5% | 0.10 | 51.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.6% | 43.9% | -0.84 | -1.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | 5.4% | 20.4% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 6.5% | 17.3% | 0.23 | 83.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.54 | 40.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 55.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 12.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | 8.8% | 21.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.4% | 19.3% | 0.37 | 82.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.3% | 0.59 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 63.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 9.0% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.9% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | -2.4% | -5.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.0% | 3.4% | -0.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -2.2% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | -6.2% | -1.7% | 4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.4% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -4.2% | -9.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.9% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | -2.4% | -5.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.0% | 3.4% | -0.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -2.2% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | -6.2% | -1.7% | 4.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.4% | 0.5% | 4.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | 0.6% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | -1.8% | 2.5% | 8.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | 0.1% | -4.2% | -2.0% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.5% | 0.6% | -5.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.7% | -1.1% | -5.0% |
| 10/31/2022 | -2.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.8% | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 5/3/2022 | -0.5% | 0.3% | -1.1% |
| 2/24/2022 | -2.0% | 2.8% | 7.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | -0.6% | -3.4% | -3.0% |
| 8/3/2021 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | -3.0% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| 2/26/2021 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 7.1% |
| 10/30/2020 | -2.6% | -1.6% | -2.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.4% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -4.2% | -9.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Regulated Capital Spending | Reported | 4.20 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Nuclear Generation | Reported | 30.00 Tril | 31.00 Tril | 32.00 Tril | ||||
| 2030 Total PSEG Capital Program | Reported | 24.00 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | ||||
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.07 for 2030 | |
| 2030 Rate Base CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 for 2026 | |
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2030 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Regulated Investments | Reported | 4.20 Bil | 10.5% | Higher New | Actual: 3.80 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings per share | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 7.7% | Higher New | Actual: 4.03 for 2025 | |
| 2030 Capital Spending Plan | Reported | 24.00 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | 7.2% | Higher New | Actual: 24.25 Bil for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Regulated Capital Investments | Reported | 22.50 Bil | 24.00 Bil | 25.50 Bil | 6.7% | Higher New | Actual: 22.50 Bil for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Rate Base Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 6.75% | 7.5% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 6.75% for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 6.0% for 2029 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings | Reported | 4 | 4.03 | 4.06 | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 4 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Regulated Capital Spending | Reported | 3.80 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Nuclear Generation | Reported | 30 | 31 | 32 | -100.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025-2029 Total PSEG Capital Program | Reported | 22.50 Bil | 24.25 Bil | 26.00 Bil | ||||
| 2025-2029 Regulated Capital Investment Program | Reported | 21.00 Bil | 22.50 Bil | 24.00 Bil | ||||
| 2025-2029 Rate Base CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||||
| 2029 Non-GAAP Earnings Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2029 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 73.46 | 2,083 | 153,010 | 20,683,373 | Form |
| 2 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 74.56 | 8,000 | 596,480 | 1,563,526 | Form |
| 3 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 76.47 | 2,083 | 159,290 | 21,691,663 | Form |
| 4 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 80.51 | 2,083 | 167,704 | 22,957,600 | Form |
| 5 | Hanemann, Kim C | President and COO - PSE&G | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 82.00 | 3,035 | 248,870 | 8,102,801 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 73.46 | 2,083 | 153,010 | 20,683,373 | Form |
| 2 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 74.56 | 8,000 | 596,480 | 1,563,526 | Form |
| 3 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 76.47 | 2,083 | 159,290 | 21,691,663 | Form |
| 4 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 80.51 | 2,083 | 167,704 | 22,957,600 | Form |
| 5 | Hanemann, Kim C | President and COO - PSE&G | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 82.00 | 3,035 | 248,870 | 8,102,801 | Form |
| 6 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 77.01 | 2,083 | 160,420 | 22,120,854 | Form |
| 7 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 81.21 | 2,083 | 169,152 | 23,494,140 | Form |
| 8 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 81.24 | 2,083 | 169,231 | 23,674,337 | Form |
| 9 | Hanemann, Kim C | President and COO - PSE&G | 401(k) | Sell | 3102026 | 84.04 | 9 | Form | ||
| 10 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 83.66 | 2,083 | 174,256 | 24,501,951 | Form |
| 11 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 83.00 | 4,700 | 390,100 | 2,363,888 | Form |
| 12 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 82.33 | 4,920 | 405,088 | 2,151,708 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 17, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
PEG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment case is supported by a multi-year regulated capital plan driving a 6% to 8% earnings growth target. This stable growth is paired with significant upside from its nuclear fleet, which benefits from a tightening PJM power market where capacity prices are high. The primary uncertainty is a year-end 2026 rate case filing.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Regulated Utility & Merchant Power ProducerFor PSE&G: (Regulated Rate Base x Authorized Return on Equity) + Approved Operating Expenses. For PSEG Power: (Generation Volume in MWh x PJM Market Price) + Capacity Revenue. The primary driver of profit stability and growth is the expansion of the regulated rate base at PSE&G. The driver of profit upside and volatility is the price of wholesale power and capacity in the PJM market for PSEG Power's nuclear fleet.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests PEG's nuclear assets are increasingly valuable in a structurally tight PJM market, providing upside not reflected in the current stock price, which is weighed down by near-term regulatory uncertainty.
- Reaffirmed long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook of 6% to 8%.
- PJM's latest capacity auction priced at $325 per megawatt-day.
- The auction fell 6.8 gigawatts short of PJM's targeted reliability requirement.
- Nuclear fleet achieved a high 92.0% capacity factor in Q2 2026.
- PSE&G anticipates filing a base rate case by year-end 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Trailing free cash flow of $276 million does not cover the $1.3 billion dividend, leading to rising debt. An unfavorable outcome in the upcoming base rate case could impair returns on new investment and threaten growth targets.
- Free cash flow of $276 million against total shareholder payout of $1.3 billion.
- Net debt is $24.5 billion, 5.12 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- Latest-quarter gross margin compressed by 9.5 percentage points year-over-year.
- The stock returned -11.0% over the last twelve months.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Regulated Capital Investment Plan | A 5-year, $24 billion to $28 billion total capital investment program through 2030. - Stable | The company increased its multi-year regulated investment plan in late 2025, driven by anticipated load growth, and has consistently reaffirmed the higher spending level since, indicating a stable and elevated outlook for rate base growth. |
| Nuclear Generation Capacity Factor | 92% for the second quarter of 2026. - Stable | The nuclear fleet is demonstrating strong operational reliability, with a full-year 2025 capacity factor of 91.2%. The lower quarterly 2025 figure was due to a planned refueling outage, and management highlighted a 'breaker to breaker run' at a key unit, signaling high performance. |
| PSEG Nuclear Capacity Factor | 92.0% (Q2 2026) | Measures the operational efficiency and reliability of the nuclear generation fleet. A high capacity factor indicates the plants are running consistently, maximizing output and revenue generation. |
| PSEG Nuclear Generation | 7.8 TWh (Q2 2026) | Represents the total volume of carbon-free electricity produced by the nuclear fleet. Higher generation, assuming favorable market prices, directly translates to higher revenue for the PSEG Power segment. |
| Interest Coverage | 3.2 times (TTM as of 6/30/2026) | Measures the company's ability to cover its interest expense with its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). It is a key indicator of financial health and creditworthiness. |
Regulated Growth vs. Balance Sheet Strain
BULL VIEW
CORE TENSION
Can cash flow from high PJM prices offset the balance sheet pressure from an unfunded dividend before a potentially tough 2026 rate case limits future returns?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. PJM capacity auctions continue to clear at high prices amid supply shortfalls, while management has consistently reaffirmed its long-term growth targets despite known headwinds.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the unfunded $1.3 billion dividend is unsustainable, and a tough regulatory climate focused on affordability will lead to a poor rate case outcome, trapping capital and straining the already leveraged balance sheet.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by year-end 2026 | Unfavorable Rate Case Filing Watch: The size of the requested rate increase and specific terms, which could be viewed negatively by investors or regulators. |
September 2026 | PJM Reliability Auction Watch: PJM to run a reliability backstop procurement auction to accelerate new dispatchable generation. |
10/29/2026 - 11/5/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Across Watch: Peer commentary on PJM market stress, cost inflation, or regulatory headwinds that could signal similar issues for PEG. |
10/29/2026 | Dominion Energy Earnings Watch: Peer Dominion Energy (D) reports earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Disappointing Quarterly Results Watch: Continuation of negative revenue growth and severe margin compression in the Q3 earnings report. |
11/2/2026 | Q3 Earnings Report Watch: Company reports next quarterly earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Exelon Earnings Report Watch: Peer Exelon (EXC) reports earnings. |
December 2026 | PJM Auction Underscores Weakness Watch: Auction results showing another failure to procure sufficient capacity, reinforcing concerns about regional grid reliability and future costs. |
December 2026 | PJM Capacity Auction Watch: PJM to hold its next capacity auction, which will have a price collar in place. |
December 2026 | PSEG Power Term Loan Maturity Watch: PSEG Power's $500 million 364-day variable rate term loan matures. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-03 | Post-Earnings Stock Decline Details: An analyst note highlighted that the stock was down 2.9% since its last earnings report 30 days prior. | +0.5% $72.66 -> $73.03 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q2 Net Income of $0.67 per share and non-GAAP Operating Earnings of $0.86 per share. The company affirmed its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance. | -1.4% $75.93 -> $74.86 |
2026-08-04 | Major Storm Restoration Details: Following severe thunderstorms with 70 mph winds in early July, PSE&G reconnected approximately 380,000 customers, with nearly all restored within 24 hours. | -1.4% $75.93 -> $74.86 |
2026-06-30 | Heat Wave Preparations Details: With temperatures expected to climb over 100 degrees, PSE&G announced it was prepared to respond and encouraged customers to conserve energy. | -2.6% $81.69 -> $79.55 |
2026-05-05 | Q1 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q1 non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.55 per share. The stock had a two-day reaction of -1.0% around the earnings call. | -1.4% $79.04 -> $77.96 |
2026-04-21 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The Board of Directors declared a $0.67 per share dividend on the company's common stock for the second quarter of 2026. | -2.8% $79.32 -> $77.13 |
2026-03-17 | FERC Decision on Transmission Costs Details: PSE&G applauded a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) decision rejecting a proposed settlement that would have disproportionately allocated transmission costs, protecting its customers from unfair charges. | -0.8% $83.39 -> $82.73 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PEG trades at roughly 21% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.6x the market), around the 34th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DUK - Duke Energy
Higher-Margin UtilityFor a more conservative utility play, Duke Energy offers a superior cost structure with a gross margin of 51.3% versus PEG's 33.3%.
D - a business partner
Data Center DemandFor more direct exposure to data center demand, a business partner has noted accelerating and durable demand from these customers in its service territory.
A stable, regulated utility providing predictable returns, paired with a merchant nuclear fleet that acts as a cash-flow engine and a call option on tightening power markets.
PEG's core is the PSE&G regulated utility, which grows through a large, multi-year capital investment program with regulator-approved returns. This provides a stable earnings base and funds dividends. The PSEG Power nuclear fleet generates significant cash flow with reduced downside risk due to a federal tax credit floor, while offering upside exposure to rising electricity prices driven by regional supply constraints and growing demand from data centers and electrification.
Constructive outcomes in PSE&G rate cases, approval of new regulated investment programs, PJM capacity auctions clearing at high prices, or PSEG Power signing long-term contracts for its nuclear output.
Adverse regulatory decisions for PSE&G, such as rate disallowances or the elimination of rate incentives. A significant, sustained drop in wholesale power and capacity prices in the PJM market.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly revenue growth, which can be affected by weather, timing of regulatory true-ups, and mark-to-market accounting on hedges.
Repricing Catalyst
Increasing recognition of the tightening supply/demand balance in the PJM power market, which enhances the value of PSEG Power's nuclear assets, and the potential for a new PSE&G base rate case filing by year-end 2026 to update its cost of service and recover recent investments.
Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G)
$10.0B TTM (78% of Total)What It Is
Provides regulated electric transmission and distribution, as well as natural gas distribution, to approximately 2.4 million electric and 1.9 million gas residential, commercial, and industrial customers within a designated service territory in New Jersey.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers in New Jersey pay for the delivery of electricity and natural gas. As a franchised public utility, customers in its service territory rely on PSE&G for energy infrastructure and delivery, with pricing and service quality overseen by regulators.
Competition
Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other
$4.0B TTM (32% of Total)What It Is
Primarily sells energy, capacity, and ancillary services from its 3,758 MW of nuclear generation assets into the PJM Interconnection wholesale market. It also sells wholesale natural gas, mainly through a full-requirements contract with its affiliate, PSE&G.
Who Pays & How
The PJM Interconnection (a regional transmission organization) pays for energy and capacity to ensure grid reliability for the Mid-Atlantic region. PSE&G pays for natural gas supply to serve its default service customers. Large power users, such as data centers, are also potential customers for long-term agreements.
Competition
Public Service Enterprise — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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