Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $72.69 | Market Cap: $36.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $72.69Market Cap: $36.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4% Key risksPEG key risks include [1] regulatory challenges that could limit its ability to recover capital project investments through rates and [2] uncertainty in securing long-term revenue agreements for its nuclear assets. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Renewable Energy Transition, and Offshore Wind Development. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4% |
| Key risksPEG key risks include [1] regulatory challenges that could limit its ability to recover capital project investments through rates and [2] uncertainty in securing long-term revenue agreements for its nuclear assets. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Public Service Enterprise (PEG) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Performance Balanced by Year-over-Year Operating Earnings Growth.
Public Service Enterprise Group reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.15 per share for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), an increase from $1.13 in the prior-year period. However, this figure missed Wall Street's estimate of $1.19 per share, and revenue of $3.02 billion fell short of expectations of $3.19 billion, representing a 6.4% decline year-over-year. This mixed performance led to a minor stock decline of 1.35% on the day of the announcement, contributing to a generally stable trend as gains were offset by misses.
2. Reaffirmed Full-Year and Robust Long-Term Growth Guidance.
Despite the fiscal Q3 2026 revenue and earnings per share miss, Public Service Enterprise Group management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance in the range of $4.28 to $4.40 per share. Furthermore, the company maintained its long-term growth outlook of 6% to 8% through 2030, providing investor confidence in future performance that likely counteracted negative reactions to the quarterly shortfall.
Show more
Public Service Enterprise (PEG) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Performance Balanced by Year-over-Year Operating Earnings Growth.
Public Service Enterprise Group reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.15 per share for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), an increase from $1.13 in the prior-year period. However, this figure missed Wall Street's estimate of $1.19 per share, and revenue of $3.02 billion fell short of expectations of $3.19 billion, representing a 6.4% decline year-over-year. This mixed performance led to a minor stock decline of 1.35% on the day of the announcement, contributing to a generally stable trend as gains were offset by misses.
2. Reaffirmed Full-Year and Robust Long-Term Growth Guidance.
Despite the fiscal Q3 2026 revenue and earnings per share miss, Public Service Enterprise Group management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance in the range of $4.28 to $4.40 per share. Furthermore, the company maintained its long-term growth outlook of 6% to 8% through 2030, providing investor confidence in future performance that likely counteracted negative reactions to the quarterly shortfall.
3. Substantial Multi-Year Capital Investment Plan to Drive Future Rate Base and Earnings.
The company highlighted its significant five-year regulated capital investment plan, totaling $24 billion to $28 billion through 2030. This substantial planned spending is expected to support regulated rate-base growth and provide a foundation for longer-term earnings and cash-flow expansion, reassuring investors about the company's future financial stability without the need for new equity issuance or asset sales.
4. Favorable Regulatory Approvals Offset by Minor Rate Adjustments.
PSE&G, a subsidiary of Public Service Enterprise Group, received approval for annual revenue increases totaling $14 million for Infrastructure Advancement Program investments and $8 million for Clean Energy Future-Electric Vehicle investments, both effective October 1, 2026. These positive regulatory developments provided a supportive outlook, even as a 5% decrease for residential gas customers was implemented, also effective October 1, 2026.
5. Broader Utility Sector Dynamics Contributing to Overall Stability.
The U.S. utility sector as a whole experienced a period of mixed signals, with rising interest rates and inflation weighing on investor sentiment. However, the sector is broadly viewed as fairly valued, with expected sector-wide earnings growth of 6% to 8% annually for at least the next three years, partly driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers. This balanced industry backdrop created a stable operating environment for PEG.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.6% change in PEG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.99 | 73.22 | -3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,794 | 12,337 | -3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.7% | 14.3% | -19.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 20.6 | 23.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | -1.7% | 86.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in PEG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.23 | 73.22 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,168 | 12,337 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.3% | 14.3% | -17.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 20.6 | 8.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -6.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -6.3% | 88.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.0% change in PEG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.89 | 73.22 | -6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,134 | 12,337 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.8% | 14.3% | -19.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.6 | 20.6 | 5.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 498 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | -6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 3.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | -0.1% | 84.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.0% change in PEG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 108.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.88 | 73.22 | 31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,771 | 12,337 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.8% | 14.3% | -39.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 20.6 | 108.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 498 | 498 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG | 31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 58.6% | 80.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEG Return | 18% | -5% | 4% | 43% | -2% | -6% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 3% | -7% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEG Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEG Max Drawdown | -9% | -27% | -15% | -12% | -14% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -26% | -21% | -13% | -13% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EXC, ED, D, SO, DUK. See PEG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.0% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Public Service Enterprise's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | PEG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1845 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Public Service Enterprise's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) is a prominent energy company primarily serving the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. Operating through its two main segments, PSE&G and PSEG Power, the company focuses on delivering essential utility services and energy infrastructure management across its service territories.
The core of PEG's business lies within its PSE&G segment, which is responsible for the transmission of electricity and the distribution of both electricity and natural gas. This segment caters to a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients. Beyond standard utility delivery, PSE&G also invests in solar generation projects and energy efficiency initiatives, while providing appliance services and repairs. The company maintains an extensive network of infrastructure, including thousands of miles of electric transmission and distribution lines and natural gas mains, ensuring reliable energy supply to its customers.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Public Service Enterprise (PEG):
- It's like your local water company, but for electricity and natural gas.
- Think of it as a regional Comcast or Verizon, but for power and natural gas delivery.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electricity Transmission: The company transmits high-voltage electricity across its extensive network.
- Electricity Distribution: The company distributes electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Gas Distribution: The company distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Energy Efficiency Programs: The company offers programs designed to help customers reduce energy consumption.
- Appliance Services and Repairs: The company provides maintenance and repair services for customer appliances.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Public Service Enterprise Group (symbol: PEG) primarily serves individual and organizational end-users directly.
Its customer categories include:
- Residential customers
- Commercial customers
- Industrial customers
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ralph A. LaRossa, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer
Ralph A. LaRossa was appointed CEO of Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) in September 2022 and Chair in January 2023. He has been with PSEG for several decades, holding various key leadership positions. Previously, he served as Chief Operating Officer of PSEG from January 2020 to August 2022 and as President and COO of PSEG Power from June 2017 to August 2022. In his role as PSEG COO, he was responsible for overseeing all of the operating businesses of PSEG. Mr. LaRossa is a seasoned utility executive with a strong background in operations and leadership within the energy sector. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in mechanical engineering from Stevens Institute of Technology.
Daniel J. Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Daniel J. Cregg has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Public Service Enterprise Group and its subsidiaries since October 2015. He is responsible for all financial functions, including Investor Relations, Planning, Strategy, Corporate Development, and Commercial Operations. Mr. Cregg joined PSEG in 1991 and has held various executive positions within the company. Prior to joining PSEG, he spent five years with the accounting and consulting firm of Deloitte and Touche, with an emphasis on the utility sector. He holds an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a bachelor's degree in accounting from Lehigh University. NJBIZ named Mr. Cregg 2018 CFO of the Year for public companies.
Tamara L. Linde, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Tamara L. Linde is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer for PSEG, a position she has held since July 2014. She oversees all legal matters and is responsible for the overall legal and regulatory strategy, as well as the Company's Office of Corporate Secretary, Compliance, and Claims functions. Ms. Linde joined PSEG's law department in 1990 and has over 30 years of experience in energy, regulatory, legal, risk, environmental, and governmental affairs. She earned her Juris Doctorate and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Seton Hall University.
Kim C. Hanemann, President and Chief Operating Officer, PSE&G
Kim C. Hanemann is the President and Chief Operating Officer of Public Service Electric & Gas Company (PSE&G), PSEG's largest subsidiary. She is a member of PSEG's Senior Executive Team. Ms. Hanemann previously served as PSE&G's Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. She holds a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Lehigh University and a Master of Business Administration from the Rutgers Graduate School of Management.
Charles V. (Chaz) McFeaters, President and Chief Nuclear Officer, PSEG Nuclear LLC
Charles V. (Chaz) McFeaters was appointed President and Chief Nuclear Officer of PSEG Nuclear effective May 2023. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the safe and reliable operations of the PSEG Nuclear Fleet, which includes the Hope Creek and Salem nuclear generating stations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Regulatory and Political Risk in New Jersey: A significant portion of Public Service Enterprise Group's operating income is derived from its regulated utility segment, PSE&G. This makes the company highly susceptible to changes in regulatory and political landscapes, particularly in New Jersey. Potential risks include proposed utility rate freezes and the possibility of a lower Return on Equity (ROE) for PSE&G's regulated assets, as indicated by recent discussions around New Jersey's Governor-elect's energy plan. The upcoming New Jersey Governor election also creates uncertainty, as utility costs have become a central election issue, potentially leading to shifts in policy priorities that could impact PEG's operations and financial performance. Furthermore, the timing of regulatory and legislative approvals for critical capital investments, such as gas and nuclear procurement bills, could limit the company's projected returns. The company is also subject to scrutiny and potential penalties from federal regulators, as evidenced by a $6.6 million fine from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for misreporting transmission needs and ongoing challenges to cost recovery for transmission projects.
- Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Public Service Enterprise Group's infrastructure and operations are exposed to the increasing risks of extreme weather and climate change. The company has acknowledged the mounting challenges posed by events such as severe storms, floods, extreme heat, cold temperatures, heavy precipitation, high winds, and ice. These events can threaten the electrical system, lead to increased operational costs, and necessitate substantial investments in infrastructure resilience. Beyond physical impacts, the company also faces financial and transition risks related to climate change, including potential increases in legislative and regulatory burdens, evolving customer preferences towards cleaner energy, and the risk of climate change-related lawsuits.
- Volatility in PSEG Power (Deregulated Nuclear Generation) Segment: The PSEG Power segment, which includes the company's deregulated nuclear generation fleet, introduces an element of volatility to Public Service Enterprise Group's financial performance. This volatility primarily stems from non-trading Mark-To-Market (MTM) gains and losses on its commodity positions and, to a lesser extent, from securities held in its Nuclear Decommissioning Trust (NDT). The viability of nuclear power can also be questioned by policymakers and regulators in the event of a publicized accident or near-accident at a nuclear plant, which could significantly impact this segment. Additional risks include increased nuclear fuel storage costs, compliance with environmental regulations such as the Clean Water Act, and fluctuations in wholesale power and natural gas markets that can affect the economic viability of its generation units.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Public Service Enterprise (PEG) Addressable Market Sizes
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG), primarily operating in New Jersey, has identifiable addressable markets for its main electricity and natural gas distribution services within the state.Electricity Distribution
The addressable market for electricity distribution in New Jersey is estimated to be approximately $12.0 billion annually. This figure is derived from New Jersey's total retail electricity sales of 73,531,424 megawatthours (MWh) in 2024, at an average retail price of 16.29 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in the same year. PSE&G, a subsidiary of Public Service Enterprise Group, is the largest electric utility in New Jersey, serving 2.4 million electric customers across 15 counties.Natural Gas Distribution
The addressable market for natural gas distribution in New Jersey is projected to be $8.7 billion in 2026. PSE&G is the largest natural gas utility in New Jersey, serving 1.9 million natural gas customers. Other services, such as solar generation projects and energy efficiency programs in New Jersey, and nuclear power generation, do not have explicitly defined monetary addressable market sizes in the available information, based on the specific request criteria.AI Analysis | Feedback
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily stemming from substantial regulated investments and strategic alignment with clean energy initiatives.
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Significant Regulated Capital Investments and Rate Base Growth: PSEG has outlined a robust capital investment plan, with $24 billion to $28 billion allocated for 2026-2030, and over 90% of this directed towards regulated investments. These investments are focused on upgrading and modernizing electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, enhancing grid reliability and resilience, and supporting a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its rate base of 6% to 7.5% through 2030. This expanding rate base is a primary engine for regulated earnings and, consequently, revenue growth.
- Expansion of Clean Energy Programs and Energy Efficiency Initiatives: The company is heavily investing in clean energy solutions and energy efficiency programs, aligning with New Jersey's clean energy goals and PSEG's commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2030. These initiatives include investments in solar generation projects, infrastructure for electric vehicle charging, battery storage, and comprehensive energy efficiency offerings that help customers reduce energy consumption and costs. These programs contribute to rate base growth and represent an expanding segment of their service offerings.
- Increased Customer Demand, Particularly from Data Centers: PSEG expects revenue growth driven by increased customer connections and significant load growth, especially from data centers. This growing demand for electricity and gas directly translates into higher sales volumes and increased revenue. The company's updated capital plan, including an additional $1.5 billion in spending, is partly driven by new customer connections and reliability upgrades to support this demand.
- Favorable Regulatory Outcomes, Including New Distribution Rates and Clause-Based Cost Recoveries: Revenue growth is also supported by the implementation of new electric and gas base distribution rates and clause-based recoveries for investments. These regulatory mechanisms allow PSEG to recover costs and earn a return on its approved investments in infrastructure and energy efficiency programs, contributing directly to utility margin and overall revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- Public Service Enterprise Group's capital investment plans for 2024-2028, 2025-2029, and 2026-2030 are structured to be funded without the need for new equity issuance or asset sales.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, Public Service Enterprise Group divested 6,750 megawatts of fossil generation as part of a strategic alternatives process to enhance its focus on infrastructure and clean energy investments.
Capital Expenditures
- Public Service Enterprise Group has significantly increased its capital spending plans, with the regulated 5-year capital investment plan for 2026-2030 now ranging from $22.5 billion to $25.5 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion over previous plans. The total capital program for 2026-2030 is projected between $24 billion and $28 billion.
- Planned regulated investments for 2026 are expected to be approximately $4.2 billion, representing a 13.5% increase from 2025's estimated $3.7 billion. Annual capital expenditures were $3.325 billion in 2023, $3.38 billion in 2024, and $3.272 billion in 2025.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on infrastructure modernization, enhancing electric reliability and system resilience, meeting growing customer demand (including from data centers), and advancing clean energy initiatives such as solar, energy efficiency, electrification, and upgrades to nuclear facilities.
Peer Outperformance in Electric Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | 2.1% | 20.6x | -7.4% | 27.0% | 36.0% | — |
| ETR | Entergy | 3.7% | 25.5x | 19.2% | 151.3% | 161.6% | +126pp |
| SO | Southern | 3.1% | 22.7x | 3.7% | 46.7% | 78.9% | +43pp |
| EVRG | Evergy | 1.5% | 21.5x | 15.8% | 90.2% | 65.1% | +29pp |
| FTS | Fortis | 2.1% | 16.6x | 24.8% | 64.2% | 64.2% | +28pp |
| IDA | Idacorp | 2.0% | 22.6x | 16.1% | 57.8% | 62.5% | +26pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -49.7% | 86.7% | 125.3% | NRG 166% · OKLO 125% · TAC 32% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 8.7% | 59.6% | 53.8% | MDU 117% · NI 112% · PNW 108% |
| Electric Utilities ← | 24 | 6.0% | 52.3% | 52.1% | VST 582% · ETR 162% · AEP 84% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 8.2% | 60.0% | 48.0% | ATO 113% · SR 78% · NJR 72% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 9.3% | 2.2% | -3.1% | WTRG 13% · AWR 7% · HTO 1% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -72.6% | -74.7% | -89.8% | ORA 27% · CWEN 26% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| Rev LTM | 22,574 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,317 |
| FCF LTM | -2,927 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,777 |
| CFO LTM | 6,162 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,848 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -10.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 20.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.4% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 9,558 | 8,449 | 7,807 | 7,935 | 7,122 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 3,722 | 2,807 | 4,533 | 3,266 | 3,767 |
| Eliminations | -1,112 | -966 | -1,103 | -1,401 | -1,167 |
| Total | 12,168 | 10,290 | 11,237 | 9,800 | 9,722 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 1,974 | 1,892 | 1,818 | 1,639 | 1,469 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 1,711 | -511 | -2,674 | 603 | 448 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other | 28 | 26 | |||
| Total | 3,685 | 1,381 | -856 | 2,270 | 1,943 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 1,745 | 1,547 | 1,515 | 1,565 | 1,446 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 366 | 225 | 1,048 | -534 | -2,094 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2,111 | 1,772 | 2,563 | 1,031 | -648 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) | 49,024 | 46,364 | 42,873 | 39,960 | 37,198 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other | 9,067 | 8,673 | 8,407 | 9,285 | 12,258 |
| Eliminations | -515 | -397 | -539 | -527 | -457 |
| Total | 57,576 | 54,640 | 50,741 | 48,718 | 48,999 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $73.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 36.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $71.12 | $76.96 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 3.0% | -4.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| Downside Capture | 18.89 | 4.25 |
| Upside Capture | 7.20 | -5.56 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.23 | 0.09 | 0.02 | -0.09 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Up Beta | 1.55 | -0.18 | -0.22 | -0.17 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| Down Beta | -1.42 | -1.30 | -1.10 | -0.29 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Up Capture | 108% | 65% | 29% | -6% | 1% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 22 | 30 | 61 | 125 | 402 |
| Down Capture | -53% | 43% | 48% | 9% | 11% | 58% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 21 | 34 | 64 | 125 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | -6.9% | 18.8% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -0.1% | 15.7% | -0.21 | 84.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 3.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 11.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 48.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | -6.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | 6.2% | 20.6% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.5% | 17.4% | 0.33 | 84.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 16.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 55.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG | 9.6% | 22.0% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.4% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 82.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 13.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 15.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 62.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 8.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | 0.1% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.9% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | -2.4% | -5.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.0% | 3.4% | -0.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -2.2% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.4% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -4.2% | -9.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | 0.1% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.9% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | -2.4% | -5.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.0% | 3.4% | -0.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -2.2% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | -6.2% | -1.7% | 4.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.4% | 0.5% | 4.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | 0.6% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | -1.8% | 2.5% | 8.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | 0.1% | -4.2% | -2.0% |
| 5/2/2023 | -0.5% | 0.6% | -5.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | -1.7% | -1.1% | -5.0% |
| 10/31/2022 | -2.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.8% | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 5/3/2022 | -0.5% | 0.3% | -1.1% |
| 2/24/2022 | -2.0% | 2.8% | 7.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | -0.6% | -3.4% | -3.0% |
| 8/3/2021 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | -3.0% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| 2/26/2021 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.4% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -4.2% | -9.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/3/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Regulated Capital Spending | Reported | 4.20 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Nuclear Generation | Reported | 30 | 31 | 32 | -100.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 31.00 Tril for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Per Share | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 for 2026 | |
| 2030 Capital Spending Program | Reported | 24.00 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.00 Bil for 2030 | |
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.07 for 2030 | |
| 2030 Rate Base CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.07 for 2030 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Regulated Capital Spending | Reported | 4.20 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Nuclear Generation | Reported | 30.00 Tril | 31.00 Tril | 32.00 Tril | ||||
| 2030 Total PSEG Capital Program | Reported | 24.00 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | ||||
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.07 for 2030 | |
| 2030 Rate Base CAGR | Reported | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 for 2026 | |
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2030 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Regulated Investments | Reported | 4.20 Bil | 10.5% | Higher New | Actual: 3.80 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings per share | Reported | 4.28 | 4.34 | 4.4 | 7.7% | Higher New | Actual: 4.03 for 2025 | |
| 2030 Capital Spending Plan | Reported | 24.00 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 28.00 Bil | 7.2% | Higher New | Actual: 24.25 Bil for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Regulated Capital Investments | Reported | 22.50 Bil | 24.00 Bil | 25.50 Bil | 6.7% | Higher New | Actual: 22.50 Bil for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Rate Base Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 6.75% | 7.5% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 6.75% for 2025-2029 | |
| 2030 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 6.0% for 2029 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 73.60 | 2,083 | 153,312 | 20,349,800 | Form |
| 2 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 67.48 | 2,083 | 140,571 | 18,861,358 | Form |
| 3 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 73.46 | 2,083 | 153,010 | 20,683,373 | Form |
| 4 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 74.56 | 8,000 | 596,480 | 1,563,526 | Form |
| 5 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 76.47 | 2,083 | 159,290 | 21,691,663 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11032026 | 73.60 | 2,083 | 153,312 | 20,349,800 | Form |
| 2 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 67.48 | 2,083 | 140,571 | 18,861,358 | Form |
| 3 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 73.46 | 2,083 | 153,010 | 20,683,373 | Form |
| 4 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 74.56 | 8,000 | 596,480 | 1,563,526 | Form |
| 5 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 76.47 | 2,083 | 159,290 | 21,691,663 | Form |
| 6 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 80.51 | 2,083 | 167,704 | 22,957,600 | Form |
| 7 | Hanemann, Kim C | President and COO - PSE&G | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 82.00 | 3,035 | 248,870 | 8,102,801 | Form |
| 8 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 77.01 | 2,083 | 160,420 | 22,120,854 | Form |
| 9 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 81.21 | 2,083 | 169,152 | 23,494,140 | Form |
| 10 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 81.24 | 2,083 | 169,231 | 23,674,337 | Form |
| 11 | Hanemann, Kim C | President and COO - PSE&G | 401(k) | Sell | 3102026 | 84.04 | 9 | Form | ||
| 12 | Larossa, Ralph A | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 83.66 | 2,083 | 174,256 | 24,501,951 | Form |
| 13 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 83.00 | 4,700 | 390,100 | 2,363,888 | Form |
| 14 | Thigpen, Richard T | SVP Corporate Citizenship | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 82.33 | 4,920 | 405,088 | 2,151,708 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
PEG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
This predictable growth is currently overshadowed by negative free cash flow from heavy spending. A planned rate case filing by year-end 2026 is the key catalyst to improve cash recovery and validate the long-term earnings trajectory.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Regulated Utility & Merchant Power ProducerPSE&G Revenue ≈ (Regulated Rate Base * Authorized Return) + Pass-Throughs. PSEG Power Revenue ≈ (Generation Volume * Realized Hedged/Market Price) + Capacity Revenue. Growth in the regulated rate base at PSE&G and capturing wholesale power prices above hedged levels and the PTC floor at PSEG Power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a durable growth story, with a multi-year capital plan providing a clear path to higher regulated earnings.
- Supports a 6% to 7.5% regulated rate base CAGR through 2030.
- Nuclear fleet operated at a high 95.5% capacity factor in Q3 2026.
- PJM capacity auction cleared at the $325 per MW-day price cap.
- Inquiries received for approximately 11.8 gigawatts of new large load.
PRIMARY RISK
Heavy capital spending has driven free cash flow negative to $-173 million, while operating margins have compressed to 21.6% from 24.9% a year ago. The dividend is currently funded by debt, which has increased to $24.9 billion, creating financial strain until regulatory relief improves cash recovery.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $173 million.
- Operating margin compressed to 21.6% from 24.9% in the prior year.
- Net debt increased to $24.9 billion from $23.2 billion a year earlier.
- Capital expenditure represents a high 27.8% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Regulated Rate Base Growth | A 6% to 7.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. - Stable | Management has consistently reaffirmed its long-term rate base growth target, which is driven by a five-year regulated capital investment plan of $22.5 billion to $25.5 billion. The actual growth in 2025 was in line with this multi-year forecast, demonstrating steady execution on its capital program. |
| Nuclear Generation Output & Capacity Factor | 8.2 TWh of output at a 95.5% capacity factor in Q3 2026. - Stable | Nuclear fleet performance is strong and consistent, with quarterly fluctuations primarily driven by the timing of refueling outages. The latest quarter saw a rebound in output and capacity after a slight dip in Q2. Management noted a successful 491-day run for Salem Unit 1 before its fall refueling, indicating high operational reliability. |
| PJM Base Residual Auction Clearing Price | $325 per MW-day (July 2026 auction for the 2028-2029 energy year) | Indicates the price PSEG Power receives for committing its generation capacity to the grid. High clearing prices reflect a tight supply/demand balance and translate to higher, more predictable revenue for the PSEG Power segment. |
| PSE&G Residential Customer Growth | approximately 1% (12 months ending Q3 2026) | Represents the growth of the regulated utility's customer base. Since distribution revenue is largely decoupled from volume, customer count is a primary driver of stable, organic growth. |
Regulated Growth Runway vs. Current Cash Drag
BULL VIEW
They see the current negative cash flow as temporary, to be resolved by a constructive outcome in the upcoming rate case filing.
CORE TENSION
Can the future earnings from a 6-7.5% rate base CAGR offset the current drag from negative $173M free cash flow and a 3.3 point margin decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull case is intact but not yet proven. The growth plan is funded, but the negative cash flow is real. The upcoming rate case filing is the critical inflection point.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a company funding its dividend with debt amid compressing margins and negative free cash flow. They believe regulatory relief may be insufficient to offset rising costs and debt service, making the growth story too expensive.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 2026 | PJM Capacity Auction Outcome Watch: The clearing price and volume cleared for PSEG Power's assets in the PJM Base Residual Auction. |
December 2026 | Term Loan Maturity Watch: PSEG Power's $500 million variable rate term loan matures. |
January 2027 | RTO Incentive Elimination Watch: Legislation eliminating the 50 basis point RTO incentive for transmission owners becomes effective, impacting PSE&G. |
2/8/2027 - 2/22/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Across Watch: Peer commentary on PJM capacity market, resource adequacy, operating costs, and regulatory relations in their jurisdictions. |
2/10/2027 | Peer Exelon Reports Watch: Peer Exelon (EXC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/17/2027 | Peers Southern and ConEd Report Watch: Peers Southern (SO) and Consolidated Edison (ED) are scheduled to report earnings. |
2/24/2027 | Disappointing 2027 Guidance Watch: Initial 2027 non-GAAP Operating Earnings per share guidance range and updated long-term growth outlook. |
2/24/2027 | Q4 Earnings and 2027 Guidance Watch: The company will report Q4 and full-year 2026 results and introduce 2027 guidance. |
March 2027 or later | PJM RPP Auction Watch: PJM's reliability backstop procurement (RPP) auction is anticipated to occur. |
March 31, 2027 | Gas Supply Contract Expiration Watch: The long-term Basic Gas Supply Service (BGSS) contract with PSEG Power is set to expire. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Negative Market Reaction to Earnings Details: The stock had a two-day negative reaction of -2.0% around the November 2, 2026 earnings call, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.0% move. | -2.0% $74.29 -> $72.81 |
2026-11-02 | Nuclear Generation Guidance Lowered Details: Concurrent with its Q3 earnings, the company lowered its guidance for 2026 Nuclear Generation. | -2.0% $74.29 -> $72.81 |
2026-11-02 | Q3 Earnings Reported Details: PSEG reported Q3 2026 Net Income of $0.76 per share and non-GAAP Operating Earnings of $1.15 per share, while reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance. | -2.0% $74.29 -> $72.81 |
2026-11-02 | Severe Weather Hits Service Area Details: A nor'easter in September affected PSE&G electric customers, and the company reported that nearly all were restored within 24 hours. | -2.0% $74.29 -> $72.81 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 Results and Rate Case Plan Details: Management reported Q2 2026 results, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and announced that PSE&G anticipates filing to update base rates by year-end 2026. | -1.4% $75.93 -> $74.86 |
2026-05-05 | Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: The company reported strong Q1 results with revenues increasing 19.4% year-over-year and a jump in operating income. | -1.4% $79.04 -> $77.96 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PEG trades at roughly 19% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.9x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
EXC - a business partner
Pure-Play Regulated Utilitya business partner offers a more focused investment in regulated transmission and distribution without the commodity price volatility of a merchant generation business. It also reported higher rate base growth of 7.9%.
D - a business partner
Higher Capex IntensityDominion is investing more aggressively, with capital expenditure at 62.3% of revenue versus PEG's 27.8%. This provides potentially higher long-term growth exposure, albeit with different geographic and regulatory risks.
A de-risking utility using its stable, regulated business as a foundation while its nuclear assets capture upside from a structurally tight power market.
PEG should be viewed as a core regulated utility (PSE&G) with a predictable, capital-investment-driven growth story. This provides a stable earnings base. The PSEG Power segment, with its nuclear fleet, acts as a significant cash flow generator and a call option on rising electricity prices, with downside protection from federal tax credits. The company is strategically shifting its capital focus toward the regulated business to enhance earnings predictability.
Constructive outcomes in PSE&G's upcoming rate filing, securing long-term contracts for nuclear output with large customers, and continued high clearing prices in PJM capacity auctions.
Adverse regulatory decisions in New Jersey that limit capital recovery, a significant and sustained drop in wholesale power prices, or major unplanned outages at its nuclear facilities.
Quarterly revenue fluctuations due to the timing of pass-through costs or short-term swings in commodity prices that do not impact long-term profitability.
Repricing Catalyst
The anticipated proposal filing with the New Jersey BPU by year-end 2026 to address the regulatory lag of capital investments, which could improve the earnings power of the core utility business.
Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G)
$10.1B TTM (82% of Total)What It Is
A franchised public utility that provides regulated electric transmission and electric and natural gas distribution to 2.4 million electric and 1.9 million gas residential, commercial, and industrial (C&I) customers in its New Jersey service territory.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers within a designated service territory in New Jersey pay for the delivery of electricity and gas. Pricing is based on regulated tariffs, and the company is the sole provider of these transmission and distribution services in its franchised area.
Competition
Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Power & Other
$3.4B TTM (28% of Total)What It Is
Sells energy, capacity, and ancillary services from its 3,758 MW nuclear generation fleet into the wholesale market operated by PJM Interconnection. It also sells wholesale natural gas, primarily through a full-requirements contract with its affiliate, PSE&G.
Who Pays & How
The PJM Interconnection, acting as the regional grid operator, and other wholesale market participants pay for electricity to meet regional demand and ensure reliability. PSE&G pays for natural gas to serve its default service customers. Customers value the reliable, carbon-free, baseload power from the nuclear fleet.
Competition
Public Service Enterprise — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.